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WSJ reports that the former president's supporters will rally to his side but swing voters might be repelled by this latest legal controversy including the context in which it happened that of a sordid affair. Mr. Trump built his support base out of two mistakes of president Obama, his neglect of rural America, and neglect of American manufacturing. And of the mistake of president Bush in pushing America into two wars in Afghanistan and Iraq that put money into wars with no productive purpose that needed to be put in rebuilding America's infrastructure. Others could have done this, Mr. Trump aggressively pushed ahead and found himself first. President Biden has closed the chapter on the wars by ending them, he has also closed the chapters of neglect of American manufacturing and put working families and America at the top of his agenda at every point. And as he did at the State of the Union address in 2023, made it personal by reciting what his father has told young Joe about standing up for working families. Biden's abilities rival that of president Lyndon Baines Johnson, who had as much experience in the US Congress as Biden, and delivered the passage of Medicare and Social Security for all Americans. Biden has done something that ranks similar with trillions of dollars for the Inflation Reduction Act, CHIPS and Science Act and pandemic assistance, and has the conviction that there is much more to be done. ...

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Lt. Gen John Kelly loses his son Robert in Afghanistan and talks about the immense burdens facing military families. Robert is out on patrol duty in a mine filled area of Afghanistan's Sangin district. Only 1% of the population serves in the military. And Kelly says his is only one of 5500 American families that have lost a child in this war. There is a sense among military families that the war and these military families have been forgotten. One Marine Corps general wrote to Kelly that service to and sacrifice for the country has become a legacy affair for a small number of military families. Before the midterm Congressional elections only 2% of the people rated Afghanistan as a top issue and hardly any candidates mentioned this issue. Tom Brokaw, a well known anchor of NBC News, wrote in a major daily that the war and the sacrifices have been forgotten in the election and hardly discussed. Adm. Mike Mullen went so far as to say that he worries that we could wake up one day and that the American people will no longer know us and we won't know them....

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Chinese leaders including Xi Jinping have frowned on the accumulation of wealth and the IPO pay day, says this report in the WSJ. The largely unregulated company Alibaba in its role as a financial business, its complex ownership structure, and practices, have met with skepticism from China's financial regulators. They see the financial operations of Alibaba and its businesses as operating with little financial oversight and the state having to assume risks if something failed. The company's business model of payments app Alipay, mutual fund, voluminous data collection, operations as small loan provider to half a billion people, are seen by Chinese leaders and president Xi as posing unknown and unclear risks when not properly regulated. Commercial banks are subject to  tough regulations and capital requirements that Alibaba has avoided. State owned banks supply Alibaba with majority of the funding and take on most of the risk even though Alibaba makes profit from the transactions, is the perception of regulators. China's export model and manufacturing have enable it to create the banking capital on which such internet business models have thrived. In a world where supply chains are being redone, and following the pandemic, there are questions about how businesses that were created in the period before the pandemic should operate in a different environment. ...

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Analysts say the large growth in orders for Boeing and Airbus is likely to slow with lower oil prices. Access to cheap financing and high oil prices at $100-$120 a barrel led to a surge in orders. With oil below $50 in Jan. 2015 this is likely to change. A study by Ascend, an aviation consultancy, shows about 50% of the orders in the last 5 years were for replacement aircraft compared to the longer term trend of 43%. Airlines are likely to hold on to older aircraft for longer with lower oil prices. Boeing's head of market analysis, says the airlines will still benefit from fuel efficient aircraft such as the Boeing 737 max and the Airbus neo with 20% less fuel cost, even at current fuel prices. Airlines will still need to plan for growth. And Airbus executives say the fuel price levels could go up in the future as inventories fall. In the Asian market overcapacity is a problem with falling airline prices and reduced profitability of Asian carriers.

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Christopher Miller says time can strengthen our sense of purpose instead of erasing it. That our being here and what we do can help shape not just our life but hat of coming generations. What he calls the Object Lens is a perspective that comes with lived experience and this can only develop and mature with the passing of time, so that as we age there is this additional dimension that we can bring to our life. George Washington as he assumed the presidency also described how this makes life richer at an older age than during the younger years. In practical terms this means accepting the current situation as a starting point, not diminished by this in any way as we age. Not to sell ourselves short and to consider so valuable all that we have learned through trial and error, and suffering. Minds of other people are not waht we can control. Adapting is essential and dispelling feelings of despondence by softening expectations of children and others, deepening and building new social networks with peers for a feeling of acceptance and belonging. ...

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About 1% of doctors account for 14% of Medicare's payments in 2012, according to WSJ analysis of data released by the Centres for Medicare and Medicaid Services.

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With government spending currently at 24% of GDP, the budget proposed by Paul Ryan, chairman of the House Budget Commttee, proposes to bring this down to 22.5% in 2012, and to 20% by 2018. The Ryan proposal would cut spending by $5.8 trillion for 2011-2021, with spending $6.2 trillion less than proposed by the Obama administration. It is a bold effort by House Republicans to bring the deficits down from the $1 trillion plus levels of the last 3 years. Major changes are made under this proposal to Medicare, and Medicaid. People who retire after 2021, would choose from an array of private insurance programs, and the federal government would help pay the premium. Medicare under this arrangement would be a "premium support" system. Medicaid would become a block grant for the states. This proposal estimates a saving of $771 billion on Medicaid over 10 years. The Food Stamp program would also become a block grant system. In addition to this the top individual and corporate tax rates would be 25% instead of 25%, with the changes being revenue neutral as a series of tax breaks would be eliminated....

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Over half of the companies in the US plan to hire in 2025. Considerable uncertainty prevailed in 2024 about hiring, this is clearing up in 2025 with a new administration keen on boosting growth.

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The US could put 25% on Canada and Mexico starting February 1 for inadequate border security to stop the flow of illegal drugs, fentanyl and migrants to the US. By executive order DJT asks agencies to report on the issues of trade by April 1.

US Canada two way trade is about $1 trillion. Three quarters of Canadian exports go to the US and US imports half of imported oil from Canada. Canada's Trudeau says Canada will respond dollar for dollar to US tariffs.

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Martin Feldstein points out why the recent agreement for a "fiscal compact" is no more than an empty statement about fixing the eurozone's finances. In this respect it is no different than the Stability and Growth Pact it replaces, with serious weaknesses. Feldstein cites the weaknesses in the language of the agreement. Each eurozone country is required to limit its"cyclically adjusted" budget deficit to 0.5% of GDP and bring its debt down to 60% of GDP. Compliance will be performed by the European Court of Justice and fines imposed. In practice the questions loom large- for a country like Spain with a 23% unemployment rate, isn't all of the 6% budget deficit cyclical? Again the agreement says deficits are calculated "net of one-off and temporary measures." Under this provision a lot of the stimulus programs would be considered in the category of "one-off." Other language lets eurozone countries frame budgets based on "exceptional circumstances" and "periods of severe economic downturn." Italy has declining economic growth, does it make sense to have a large budget surplus in that situation to lower debt to GDP, and how does that goal relate to "exceptional circumstances."...

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Anderson of Nothwest Airlines who spent 2 years at United Health now becomes next CEO of Delta Airlines which is a Northwest alliance partner along with Continental. He does not see a merger between the two as most of the benefits can be derived through the alliance.

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Matt O'Brien points out that the Chinese currency may be overvalued as other currencies including the euro and the Japanese yen weakened. Since 2005 China let the yuan appreciate very gradually. As China's economic growth slowed in 2014 investor outflows have increased with an estimated $800 billion leaving the country. China has spent some of its reserves to keep it stable. Before the move the yuan was managed by letting it trade up or down 2% each day around a midpoint set by the government. The new setup keeps this but lets the market set the midpoint based on where it closed the prior day. This move was recommended by the IMF to help in the transition of the yuan to becoming a reserve currency. O'Brien points out that the soft peg to the U.S. dollar means the yuan appreciated 9.2% against the euro and 57.8% against the Japanese yen in the years 2013-2015, and this is happening as the U.S. Federal Reserve is planning to raise interest rates- the real trade weighted exchange rate being up 14% for the yuan in the last 12 months. The 8.3% decline in the exports for July 2015 over the prior year led the government to this action. The increase in investor outflows as a result will lead to further declines, with some estimates of the eventual decline in the yuan at about 10%....

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The Labor Department figures showed the U.S. added 157,000 jobs in January 2013. The unemployment rate edged slighly higher to 7.9%. Government jobs declined by 9000 in January, and the risk remains that drastic job cuts under a sequester of government spending cuts supported by some in Congress would hurt the job market.