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The letter of December 2017 from Director NIH that announced the lifting of the ban on "gain of function" research. The lifting of the ban led to research at labs that is seen as a possible scenario of what happened to cause an accidental pandemic. 

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After a chemical attack by the Assad government in Syria in 2013 Trump urged president Obama not to make air strikes on Syrian government targets, saying jobs, healthcare and other priorities should be remembered. After the use of chemical weapons in April 2017 by the Syrian government and the outrage following media photographs of the men, women and children who suffered from the brutal attack, Trump had changed his mind. The graphic images led to a change of heart. President Trump said that "it was in the vital national security interest of the United States to prevent and deter the spread and use of deadly chemical weapons." Reports on CNN state the president was offered two options to strike several airfields or one airfield near Homs in Syria, just before meeting China's president Xi Jinping. He chose the latter option and went on to his meeting with China's president. Pictures on the internet show Trump with key advisers, Mcmaster, Tillerson and others huddled together in a room at the Mar Lago resort following the strikes. It may be a decisive moment in the Syrian conflict as it was an expression of disapproval and action with the use of chemical weapons in any conflict. ...

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With inflation running at 6.7% in Russia, the central bank has decided not to increase interest rates following the U.S. Fed's bond purchase tapering decision in Jan 2014. The ruble declined by 6% in Jan 2014 and 15% for the last year. With the economy slowing the central bank finds it difficult to raise interest rates, and with inflation the bank has less flexibility to lower rates and increase credit availability. The ruble's lower value is a result of a shrinking current account surplus, with the added effect of capital flight from markets seen as riskier by investors. Currency collapse is a sensitive issue for many Russians after the 1997 crisis and collapse of the ruble. Central bank chief Ms. Nabiullina was on television explaining the decline to ordinary Russians, saying- " It's not that the ruble is weakening but the dollar and the euro are rising in price." Economists say the ruble's weakening won't add as much to inflation as slowing demand will make it harder for retail chains to raise prices....

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U.S. Fed chairman Bernanke tells a IMF conference on financial crises in Nov 2013 that the unemployment rate of 7.3% does not reflect the problems in the labor market, which require strong action to improve job creation. He says the level of student debt is a serious issue that also needs to be taken into account.

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The 2009 budget of the Obama government has some optimistic assumptions built into it for the deficits in future years. For 2009 the GDP declines by 1.2%, for 2010 the GDP growth is 3.2%. With these assumptions its possible to bring the $1.75 trillion deficit in 2009 to less than $600 billion by 2012, and getting to that point requires GDP to rise by 4% a year by then. This is assuming the growth quickly returns to the growth rates of the 1990's. In one area the administrations' forecasts are more optimistic than the Fed's and may turn out to be too optimistic. The administration's assumption is for unemployment to average 7.9% in 2010 when it may be close to 9% or higher. For example Goldman Sachs economists expect the unemployment rate to be at 9.5% by late 2010. And Goldm,an's growth rate for 2010 is just 1.3%, and that also may prove to be optimistic whereas the budget assumes 3.2%. What all this means that money has to be spent on the priorities outlined by the President, but the most buck for the money has to be obtained because further outlays will be needed in future years. This is a very important point, and a lot of checks and transparency and careful monitoring of projects has to be put in place throughout 2009....

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Jens Stoltenberg, NATO Secretary General says he welcomes the conditions only approach outlined by president Trump for the allied role in Afghanistan. This means taking the appropriate action depending on conditions. NATO will move forward with expected commitments of its members as the U.S. counteracts the deteriorating situation there to prevent a vacuum from developing. This happens following the disastrous results of the Obama administration's withdrawal from Iraq in 2011 against the military's opinion, leading to a reversal of all the hard won gains and increase in terrorism, adding millions of refugees. Gen. McMaster and Gen. Mattis who developed the new plans in 2017 were in Afghanistan during that period.

The split between U.S. and other members of NATO in the current effort by the U.S.to increase others contributions is- 7000 U.S. troops and 5000 troops from other NATO members.

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A terrorist attack in Istanbul, Turkey, in Jan. 2015. Most of the people killed and injured are German tourists. The attack targets Turkey's tourism industry.

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Countries which ignored the lessons of the 1997 financial crisis are affected to a larger degree in the 2014 emerging markets financial crisis- Argentina, Turkey and Thailand have high government gross debt as a percentage of GDP. Investors are taking a careful look at individual countries this time and there is less contagon. Flexible exchange rates, and higher foreign exchange reserves are reducing the effects in 2014. The effects on the U.S. and Europe are limited to how this affects the global economy.

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U.S. states want flexibility in applying the Medicaid program which covers 53 million Americans earning lower levels of income. This amount was $11,616 a year for working parents in 2009, according to the Kaiser Fondation. Some states have a higher income level, as high as $48,400. The problem for states are serious budget deficits, with Medicaid comparing with education as a major cost. The recession and job losses has added 8 million Americans to Medicaid rolls. The Federal government supports 57% of the Meddicaid budget on average. A provision in the 2010 health care law says states cannot limit Medicaid eligibility, or they would lose funding by the federal government. The Obama adminstration's position is that eligibility or provider cuts will not bring in large savings, and will allow larger cost-sharing by Medicaid users, with only minor cuts in eligibility. Its position is also that the law does not give the federal government waiver authority. Some of the issues raised relate to the structure of Medicaid cost and its rapid escalation. Health and Human Services says 1% of benificiaries, especially the long term care, use up 25% of the Medicaid expenditures. One astonishing fact is that two thirds of all U.S. nursing home residents are on Medicaid. The total cost is rising, from $187 billion for Medicaid in 2000, to $346 billion in 2009, according to the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services. In July 2011, $26 billion in additional federal Medicaid funding expires, which will be added to state expenses as they struggle with large deficits. In states like Maine, with generous benefits, about one fourth of all residents are in the Medicaid program. ...

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About 9% of the total taxes in Texas and Louisiana for fiscal 2013 are from severance taxes for extraction of oil and gas, according to Nelson Rockefeller Institute of Government. For Alaska this is 78% and for N. Dakota 46%. A prolonged oil slump will reduce growth in the oil producing states including Wyoming and Oklahoma. Rainy day funds in N. Dakota and Texas will help meet spending for the next 2 years.

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ECB president Draghi tells the European parliament on Jan. 16, 2012: "I cannot underline these points enough. Only a well-coordinated, coherent and properly timed strategy will yield the desired results." He made his comments as head of the European Systemic Board, which oversees systemic risks to the banking system in Europe. Speaking after a series of downgrades by S&P, Draghi said there should be "much less mechanical reliance" on ratings agencies. On Greece's debt burden and servicing costs he pointed out that the evaluation of Greek debt made in October 2011 "needs to be clarified whether its realistic," given the deteriorating economic situation in Greece. On Greece's talks with bondholder Draghi wants to see new servicing of debt conditions make it possible for Greece to bring down its current debt level of 190% of GDP to 120% by 2020.

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Lower demand for Tecfidera, Biogen's drug for multiple sclerosis led to a drop of 22% in the company's share price. Because of the lower demand the 2015 revenue growth for Biogen will be 6-8% instead of 14-16% predicted earlier for the Cambridge, Mass. company. The lower demand is because of a rare side effect, patients discontinuing treatment because it was not helping, and lower reimbursement price in Germany. Tecfidera sales were $2.9 billion in 2014. Another factor is the competition from Gilenya for MS by Novartis.

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This editorial cites the half a billion dollars in low interest Energy Department loans to Fisker for developing the Fisker Karma as wasteful spending. The Karma has a price of $100,000. It calls the Obama administration's projections of 1 million electric vehicles by 2015 as wildly optimistic. Sales of the Chevy Volt did not reach the 10,000 forecast in 2011 after safety issues. Hybrids, electric-gasoline vehicles and higher fuel efficiency vehicles using new technologies are a larger part of the solution than all electric vehicles for reducing fuel consumption.

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Francois Hollande leads in public opinion polls for the second round of voting in France's presidential election by 56% to Sarkozy's 44% in February 2012. Sarkozy has closed the gap for the first round of voting. Sarkozy' popularity has suffered from being president at the time of the global economic crisis of 2008 and the current eurozone crisis, and for his aggressive style. Hollande has been consistently underestimated in France with a nice guy image, but has proven to be a persistent campaigner and effective voice for the Socialist party in the current economic crisis.

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U.S. housing firm Fannie Mae reported a loss of $6.5 billon for 1st quarter 2011. Home price declines pose an added risk for Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac as the firms have a large number of foreclosed homes. Fannie and Freddie had 218,000 homes at the end of March that have to be resold, a 33% increase from 2010. Fannie Mae has about $206 billion of delinquent loans on its books. Both firms are on government life support. Fannie said it would ask for $6.2 billion in new funds from the U.S. government.

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Judge Carl Barbier's ruling on Jan. 14, 2015 against BP which increases its exposure to a maximum penalty of $13.7 billion under the Clean Air Act. Judge Barbier's decision was that BP was liable for 3.19 million barrels of crude that spilled into the Gulf of Mexico in the 2010 Deepwater Horizon rig disaster. Judge Barbier's ruling said that BP acted recklessly in the events leading to the rig explosion an oil spill, giving the company exposure to the maximum penalty of $4300 per barrel. BP asked for a smaller penalty of $3000 per barrel.

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Christoph Hasselbach of DW.com says the idea of European Union brings so much good for Europe that it should not be diminished by use of pressure or punishment. He refers to the firm opinion in Brussels, of Mr. Juncker and Merkel, that there can be no cherry picking when it comes to remaining in the EU. This led in Jan. 2017 to British prime minister May saying Britain would not go begging to Brussels, and would simply opt out of the European Union and the single market. Hasselbach offers an interesting and plausible explanation for the Brexit vote shifting by a small margin to the exit side. He says rightly that uncontrolled immigration fears were used by the politicians supporting exit. Interestingly he says the worries in the UK were not just for current people but for future citizens from the hundreds of thousands of refugees who would become German citizens in a few years. Would they try to settle in the UK- prime minister Cameron failed to provide a convincing answer, says Hasselbach. He is right to point out as we have at Lyrarc that it is healthy to have questions and even some skeptical views about Brussels, that the appeal of the EU must depend on not being dogmatic about it, but being open and willing to accept questions.   ...

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Compared with 2007 when participatory notes (p-notes), which provide anonymity for institutional investors, comprised 56% of foreign institutional investment, the p-notes comprise only 15% in 2010. This is good for India as investors are registering as institutional investors and there is less likelihood of speculative capital behaviour, as institutions think longer term. India received $18 billion in stock market investments from overseas investors in 2007, a record amount, and with $11 billion invested so far this will be exceeded in 2010.

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A recent poll shows Mr. Trump increasing his support from a bloc of voters that disapprove of his job performance but still give credit to Mr. Trump for an improving economy. A new WSJ/NBC poll shows 51% of Americans disapprove of his overall job performance, with 46% approving. The same percentage that say they disapprove of job performance are also saying they give him credit for a stronger economy up from the 44% in April 2017 who said they approved his way of handling the economy. Wages have increased 3.2%  in each of the last 2 months and unemployment is at an historic low over 50 years. One group that has a 10 point gap when it comes to the economic performance is among Independents, where 38% approve of Mr. Trump but 48% approve his economic performance. A big jump is among Hispanics who have benefited greatly with new jobs in construction and other areas of the economy. Trump's 46% approval rating in May 2019 is among the highest he has achieved, rising 3 points since the last identical poll in March 2019. About 29% still think the Mueller Report clears Mr. Trump of wrongdoing as they did in March. Still things can change as 42% believe the Mueller Report does not clear Mr. Trump of wrongdoing, and another 29% haven't made up their mind. On impeachment hearings about 48% think Congress should let Mr. Trump finish out his term, 49% think there is either enough evidence or Congress should continue investigating with an eye to future impeachment hearings. The survey margin of error is about 4 percentage points, covers 900 adults.  ...

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1940 US Census shows about a third to half of Americans did not have the basics- no flush toilets 50%, no running water 30%, no electric lighting 35%, wood/coal cooking used by 30%, no refrigeration about 40%. Research shows the tremendous progress the US made since 1935 to 1963 both with growing incomes and with taxes and transfers, and again from 1963 to the present focusing on the black American population and backward states in the South with the War on Poverty of LBJ/John F. Kennedy. What it showed to Asian nations that studied the growth of America, Japan in 1950's in war devastated country, China in 1990 coming out poor from the failed Great Leap Forward and Proletarian Cultural Revolutions, India in 2017 after 70 years of failed Democratic Socialist experiments was that this kind of backwardness and poverty could be resolved by learning from America and applying the same principles with dogged determination, clear vision, and careful planning for commiting the large amounts of capital investment, labor education, and technology infusions from the US and EU, and very importantly capitalizing on the goodwill for Asia in America and the European nations. Much of Africa and India today in its efforts can draw inspiration from what was achieved in America over this span and China's effort to do this in just 30 years from beginnings in 1990 when China was mostly a bicycle nation to its complete transformation by 2020.  ...

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India is becoming a major destination for foreign investment in manufacturing in many industries. The youth population 15-24 now exceeds that of China. Over the period 2015-2019 the number of youth 15-24 will increase to be close to 250 million in India in 2019, compared to a rapidly declining youth population in China of little over 150 million in 2019, according to the International Labor Organization. China's one child policy, investigation of multinationals business practices, and increasing wages in manufacturing, are reducing its attractiveness for foreign investors. Other destinations such as Russia are less attractive because of the economic crisis after falling oil prices. India also benefits from the large drop in oil prices to help reduce its chronic deficit and lower inflation- significant dividends at a critical time. Raghuram Rajan, head of the central bank, estimates the gain from the drop in oil prices at about $50 billion. Indonesia also benefits from the same trends. Prime minister Modi is reducing the bureaucratic structures and red tape that are a legacy of the Congress governments since independence in 1947, creating a new climate for business investment. ...

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Henrik Bohme says in DW.com that the German government may have to step in to rescue Deutsche Bank after the $14 billion legal settlement with the U.S. Justice Department for the bank's practices before the financial crisis of 2008. He points out that there are other legal settlements that are expected, including one for money laundering charges. In all he says there are 7,800 legal challenges the bank faces. The share price has dropped by 90% to 10 euros by September 2016. The market capitalization is low at 14 billion euros, and it was dropped from the Eurostoxx 50 index because of this. It has 1.7 trillion in assets under management, is a systemically important bank, which means the German government has no alternative but to step in and rescue the bank. Issuing new shares with so many legal challenges is not an option as there would be few buyers.

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Italy's prime minister, Mario Monti put it best when he said in a speech in Brussels in April 2012: "If a country becomes more productive and competitive, but there is no demand for its products domestically or around it, growth will not materialize." There is a new shift in opinion towards a balance of fiscal discipline with growth measures to get Europe back on track. The feeling in different parts of Europe is that the German view of austerity alone will not work for Europe. And the view is coming from the far right to the far left, from Marie Le Pen, far right presidential candidate in France, to the far right leader whose move to withdraw support to the government in Netherlands on the issue of austerity measures led to its collapse. Geert Wilders, leader of the Freedom Party in the Netherlands, said: "we don't want our pensioners to bleed just to meet the dictates from Brussels." The IMF has put out research that questions what is now called "the German hypothesis." The "German hypothesis," is based on the unique experience of Germany with the Hartz reforms under chancellor Schroeder which were based on wage restraint by workers, the German "kurzarbeit" program of government support for retaining workers with lower pay during cyclical downturns, improving competitiveness of German companies, and conservative budget practices. There appear to be two exceptions to this. One is that demand has to be strong outside or domestically for a country to reduce unemployment and improve productive capacity utlilization as it increases competitiveness. This was the case as Germany made the Hartz reforms under Schroeder. Wage restraint acts as a form of devaluing currency for reducing the cost of its products to improve exports. All leading parties and the unions are now in favor of wage restraint and lowering wages to preserve jobs to improve France's competitive position. Germany had the benefit of a decade to implement these reforms to reduce unemployment, because demand was not declining domestically or around it during its reforms. The situation is different in Spain where in all likelihood demand would shrink further with unemployment rising from 25% to higher levels, and higher sales taxes. This is why Francois Heisbourg, special advisor at the Paris based Foundation for Strategic Research, says about the current situation in Europe, that destroyiing Greece with strict austerity alone wasn't something the EU can look back at with the sense of having done the right thing, for Spain it appears misguided and lacking careful thought. The editors of the Wall Street Journal expressed the same sense when they described the March 2012 bailout of Greece as a tragic sideshow, because the main purpose was to buy time and insulate the other larger economies in the EU by giving the French, Spanish and German banks time to improve their financial position. The Journal called it bad for Greece leaving it with debt at 120% of GDP till 2020 and no economic growth, and bad for democracy as it was done against overwhelming Greek public opinion- The Tragic Greek Sideshow, Feb. 22, 2012. Volker Perthes, director of the German Institute for International and Security Affairs, a Berlin think tank, says the Germans have always viewed German leadership in Europe with discomfort, and would prefer a leadership where several states, France, Italy, Spain, and other countries in the EU coalesce around consensus positions. This is historically true for the German position since chancellor Adenauer. With the Free Democrats in decline, and the Social Democrats and the Pirate party doing well in recent German elections and favoring consensus in Europe, Merkel's Christian Democrats need to rethink their policy to give greater weight to economic growth for a consensus position in Europe. ...

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Mark Carney, Governor of the Bank of England, in meetings with bankers and business leaders says Britain should remain in the single market 2 years after exit from the European Union, according to the Sunday Times. Theresa May plans for Britain to exit the EU in 2019. The reason is that this would protect business as it adjusts to leaving the single market, a kind of transition or Brexit buffer period. This period "really informs what businesses need to do because you transition and restructure during that window," Carney told a House of Commons Treasury Committee. About the changes in the politics in the U.S. and Europe Carney has said about basic fairness in bankers language- "market fundamentalism can devour the social capital needed for capitalism" to work, referring to the moral failures in operations of the banks by 2009 and how it hit the middle and working class incomes and wealth.

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Solomon and Said give a detailed account of the events leading to the steep decline in oil prices to $61 a barrel by December 2014. The steep declines have caused a shock for OPEC and non-OPEC producers. A price decline of this magnitude may not have been anticipated by the Saudis, and there are divisions among Saudi officials and in the royal family about whether such steep cuts are best for Saudi Arabia. The price per barrel of oil for each OPEC country to balance its budget varies widely, according to IMF and IEA, WSJ, sources. For Saudi Arabia this estimate is $106, Iraq 101, for Russia $98. The Saudis have $750 billion in foreign currency reserves. At the high end are Libya at $184, Iran at $131, Algeria $131, Nigeria $122, Venezuela $117. The UAE is at $77, Qatar $60. Norway is at the low end at $40. On Dec. 19, 2014 the price of Brent crude, ICE for Jan. delivery was $61.38.