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The WSJ's Peter Nicholas, Carol Lee and John McKinnon describe the events leading to the election of Obama to a second term as U.S. president. A significant move by the Obama campaign was to spend heavily in the early part of the campaign to show Romney as a predatory capitalist by focussing on his record a a private equity business executive who focussed on profits. More voters perceived Obama as caring about people like themselves. The voter turnout was also carefully executed especially for minority voters. For the first time since Mondale's loss to Reagan fewer white voters supported a presidential candidate- only 38% of the white vote went for president Obama compared to 60% for Romney. Obama's campaign focussed on protecting the middle class and working class from sharp spending cuts. Voters major issue was the economy, with unemployment at 7.9%. Yet voters largely did not hold Obama responsible for the economy and considered Wall Street and the previous George W. Bush administration responsible for the events leading to the 2008 financial crisis....

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Advice from David Walker on the role of a chairman of a large bank and good bank governance. This is part of a 184 page report prepared for UK bank governance practices following the financial crisis. David Walker is now the new chairman of Barclays and considered an excellent choice with the experience and wisdom to correct the problems facing the financial industry. He calls for putting corporate governance at the centre of things in the current environment- this applies to banks in Europe and the U.S.- in the following passage from the report which deserves careful reading: "The need now is to bring corporate governance issues closer to centre stage. Better financial regulation has much to accomplish, but cannot alone satisfactorily assure performance of the major banks at the heart of the free market economy. These entities must also be better governed... The behavioural changes that may be needed are unlikely to be fostered by regulatory fiat, which in any event risks provoking unintended consequences. Behavioural improvement is more likely to be achieved through clearer identification of best practice and more effective but, in most areas, non-statutory routes to implementation so that boards and their major owners feel "ownership" of good corporate governance." Walker calls the role of the chairman paramount in doing this, requiring "exceptional leadership skills and the ability to get confidently and competently to grips with major strategic issues." This means that if done right there will be little time for a chairman to do any other activity....

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The Indian Supreme Court on July 27 upholds the core amendments to the Prevention of Money Laundering Act (PMLA)  which gives the enforcement authority, the Enforcement Directorate ED, the powers to make summons, arrest, and other powers to enforce the law. The Supreme Court called the PMLA a law against "the scourge of money laundering." After independence in 1947 some of the problems that Mohandas Gandhi witnessed in the early Congress party ministries allowed by the British in the 1930's became a part of the political fabric as accepted ways of operating. It is only in the last decade that these practices have come to be seen as inconsistent with the development of the country and ones that would have been rejected outright by Mohandas Gandhi as inconsistent and repelling to his India of Hind Swaraj. In a 545 page judgement the Special Bench of Justices AM Khanwilkarm Dinesh Maheshwari, and CT Ravikumar, stated that- "This is a sui generis (unique) legislation... The Parliament enacted the Act as a result of the international commitment to sternly deal with the menace of money laundering of proceeds of crime having transnational consequences." Mohandas Gandhi would be appalled by how elected ministries operated in the India that followed in the first decades after 1947. Not only were some of the basic principles of honest government being violated, it was being done with such impunity that over time it crept into the culture of how things operated in India, destroying any confidence the people had in the responsibilities of government and its ability to deliver on those responsibilities. The Supreme Court has now taken up the task of restoring some of the integrity of Gandhi's Hind Swaraj with its statement that- "Money laundering is an offence against the sovereignty and integrity of the country." Money laundering the SC says is "every process and activity", direct or indirect dealing with the proceeds of crime. Justice Khanwilkar wrote: "Today, if one dives deep into the financial systems, anywhere in the world, it is seen that once a financial mastermind can integrate the illegitimate money into the bloodstream of an economy, it is almost indistinguishable. In fact the money can simply be wired abroad at one click of the mouse. It is well known that once this money leaves the country, it is almost impossible to get it back. Hence a simplistic argument  that Section 3 (offence of money laundering) should only find force once the money has been laundered, does not commend to us."   ...

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The Fed reduced rates to 1% from 1.5% on October 29, 2008. If the Fed were to reduce rates down to zero that would put the USA in the situation that Japan found itself when Japan's central bank reduced rates to zero in the 1990's, and where it remained for years as its economy struggled. For the USA these low rates were last reached in 2003 and 2004 after the bursting of the internet bubbbe. The only surprise element in this is that this comes so early in the deep and prolonged recession that is expected. What if the rate is down to zero, then the Fed could use unconventional tools like buying longterm Treasury securities that would help to push down the terms for consumer credit that tracks those Treasury securities.

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India's Foreign Minister told a conference that China's forward deployments at Galwan in violation of 1993 and 1996 agreements was an attempt to change the Line of Actual Control. China after years of peaceful development under previous administrations, during which China had gained from the trade relationship with the US and foreign investment from the US business community, sought  to put India at a disadvantage using its larger economy and technological assets obtained through American business assistance. This was done by making forward deployments right at the Indian border to change the Line of Actual Control in progressive steps. Jaishankar made it very clear. "It is hard work, very patient work, but we are very clear on one point, which is we will not allow any unilateral attempt by China to change the status quo or alter the LAC. I do not care how long it takes, how many rounds we do, how hard we have to negotiate- this is something we are very clear of." Going back to the period of independence with Nehru in 1947- China's occupation of Tibet was an occupation of a peaceful country that led to the situation that India faces today of a border stretching from east to west on the Himalayas that faces China. Faced with the partition and refugees from that partition India under Nehru was not in a position to respond effectively to that occupation. Does China gain anything from being at that border through the occupation of Tibet is a serious question? Why? Because it faces a Vedanta and Buddha driven culture and people with population of 1.8 billion stretching to the Indonesian islands that were and still are the fundamental source of  China's own Buddhist culture and tradition.  US business has allied with one country after another Japan, China and now India. The US has faced wars with Japan, and sometimes in a failed attempt to understand the aspirations of  Southern Asia allied with British ideas of the region which were based on the policies of British Empire to divide the region on religious and language, caste based barriers. US business also lacked a true perception of the importance of working class and families in the US as it sent factories and surrendered its own manufacturing to China. The world is now changing following the pandemic and new supply chains and manufacturing policies of the US are being structured. It is in this context where India's pace of economic growth and technological advancement will change its capabilities and its capacity to meet the aspirations of 1.8 billion people in Asia with a common tradition and culture. It is in this context that one can ask the question does China have anything to gain from the occupation of Tibet and being on the border with a country and cultural tradition of 1.8 billion people stretching across South and South east Asia?  ...

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China's total public debt was 95% of GDP in 2022, Japan's was 62% in 1991. It's population aging faster than Japan's with population declining in 2022, Japan's declining in 2008 twenty years after its bubble burst. China's per capita income at $12,850 in 2022, compared to Japan's at $29,000 in 1991. China is facing more difficult headwinds than Japan in many ways. There is also higher tension in trade relations with US and EU limiting export growth. There is also the policy stance of the Communist Party that sees rural areas left behind with about 35% people in rural areas and Xi is slowing growth to reduce disparities and housing construction led speculative growth. In Japan urbanization was 77% in 1991, compared to 65% in China today. 

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China's Producer prices declined by 3%, Consumer prices flatlined, and imports and exports are both down 6.2% in September 2023. Growth is expected not to exceed 5% in forecasts by IMF and others.

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The wars in Afghanistan and Iraq by one estimate have already cost 1 trillion dollars. By comparison World War II cost 4 trillion dollars in inflation adjusted dollars. The figures are from the Congressional Research Service, and show the pressures to control spending. The reason that civil society is not very disturbed even as these wars cost so much, is that so far these costs in 2008 for example were 1.2% of GDP, creating the danger that these wars can be carried out by a political leadership without the nation feeling the strains of the war. This may change with higher unemployment, and the feeling that not much is gained, that this money can be used in better ways to rebuild the US economy and infrastructure.

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The truth is very different from the rhetoric coming from the Obama administration about helping Main Street America and ordinary workers against "fat-cat bankers," says Goldfarb. Under the Obama administration banks have grown larger and gained more influence over administration decisions. No conditions were made part of the agreement that would require banks to lend a portion of the money handed out to the banks to ordinary borrowers. And not much of significance was done to help homeowners under water, which would enable a faster recovery. In this respect the policies slanted in favor of banks of the Obama administration worsened the prospects of an economic recovery. Experts from Reagan advisor Martin Feldstein- who as early as 2008 advocated serious help to homeowners under water to reduce principal and interest- to the FDIC's Sheila Bair and Princeton Prof. Krugman, across the ideological spectrum, perceived this being in the national interest. Feldstein's first op-ed on his plan appeared in the Wall Street Journal on 3/7/2008, followed by ones on 4/15/2008, 10/4/2008, 1/20/2010/ 10/12/2011 in WSJ, and a oped on 10/30/2008 in the Washington Post, repeating the call for siginificant debt reduction to homeowners. Banks had extraordinary influence on successive administrations in the U.S., both Republican and Democratic- the Clinton, Bush and Obama administrations- so that policy actions could be distorted from what would otherwise take place. A study by two University of Michigan professors shows that banks did not increase lending after receiving government money. Instead taxpayer money was used to invest in risky securities for profits from short term price movements, resulting in gains of about 10% in investment returns. Ran Duchin, one of the two professors, says helping ordinary borrowers was not the most profitable use of capital for banks. Without the necessary conditions from the Obama administration, the banks depolyed capital in ways that did not help the economy. Similiarly when banks needed to be restructured no preparatory action was taken because of resistance within the administration- a request by President Obama to Treasury Secretary Geithner for preparing a plan for the restructuring of Citigroup was ignored, according to a report by Goldfarb and Wallsten on 9/17/2011 in the Washington Post....

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"What the hell kind of system is this?" That is what Jim Rogers, a co-founder with George Soros of the Quantum Fund, asks as he sees Chuck Prince taking out hundreds of millions of dollars out of Citigroup, and other Citigroup executives take many more hundreds of millions of dollars out of the company. As he sees Stan O'Neal get $150 million for leaving Merrill Lynch after he ruined the company. And Frank Raines he says did worse accounting than Enron with Fannie Mae, fradulent accounting year after year, and yet Raines is walking around with millions of dollars. One can add to Rogers list, Mozilo of Countrywide who was one of the principal figures behind pushing bad mortgage deals for homeowners that profited those in the business of real estate, and he is walking around with millions. So is Citigroup's Robert Rubin if one looks at those who had reputations to preserve, and he hopes to devote his time to charites as he says in his resignation letter to Citigroup CEO Pandit. See groups and links for Mozilo and Rubin. Jim Rogers thinks Long Term Capital Management should have been allowed to fail. Greenspan, Rubin, Summers, and Geithner were behind the rescue of LTCM. In the worst case scenario the economy would have recovered from a LTCM collapse, and the intervening period of dislocation would have sent a strong signal to financial institutions about excesses, risk taking, leverage, and put a necessary element of caution in all financial arrangements. Jim Rogers says Lehman would have lost a lot of money with an LTCM failure and it would have slowed Wall Street down for years. Some small degree of grief from time to time may be a normal part of any economic system, especially with excesses of one type or another, just as it is for the human condition, and may be away for the system to protect itself from bigger dangers by addressing and controlling the excesses. By eliminating this grief one may be subjecting the system to bigger and more life threatening stresses later on, as these excesses assume an exaggerated form. ...

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The 2008 bailouts helped the very banks and financial institutions that caused the financial crisis through the issuance of bad mortgages. The stock market and economy recovered leaving workers behind who did not benefit and were hurt financially, causing a deep resentment among Americans that led to protest movements. This resulted in the the remaking of both political parties, with Mr. Trump remaking the Republican party, and Bernie Sanders, Elizabeth Warren remaking the Democratic Party, in a sharp shift to protect American workers and American business. A lot has changed since then.The legislation passed in Congress for a $2 trillion aid package is driven by a desire to protect working families first. Companies that get loans are expected to avoid layoffs. The focus is entirely on preserving jobs in American industry and small business. A separate allocation is made for unemployment insurance and direct payment to households so that the safety net is secured. This may not prove enough, so that there is a vigilant attitude in Congress to ensure that workers and working families needs are met in the coming year and years. ...

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Kozo Yamamoto joined the Finance Ministry in 1971, and is serving his sixth term as member of Japan's parliament. Since 2011 Yamamoto has convinced Abe, a colleague in parliament, about the need for reflationist policies now called Abenomics. This helped Abe make a comeback win for the prime minister's position for a second time. Yamamoto led the study group that convinced Abe of the need to delay the second increase in the consumption tax to 2017, and a 3 trillion yen stimulus package to encourage household spending, following the economy's fallback into a recession in Nov. 2014. He says it was important to not add to the headwinds the economy is facing. Yamamoto does not fall into the conservative mold of people from the Finance Ministry, as he takes tango lessons, is interested in fine pottery, and in Italian cooking. He has called bureaucrats in the ministry and central bankers "feckless" and "defiant," after years of questioning them in parliament and demanding reflationist policies. With the snap election in December 2014 the Abe led LDP is taking on the conservative Finance Ministry officials, who have insisted on sticking with the old timetable for the tax increase, regardless of the headwinds and slowing exports....

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Compromise reached at the October 2010 G-20 meeting in S. Korea to reduce trade imbalances, and for countries with current account surplus exceeding 4% of GDP (China 4.7% and Germany 6.1%) to bring these balances down by 2015. Countries with large current account deficits, Turkey 5.2% and South Africa 4.3%, were expected to bring their deficits down and increase national savings. The US is at 3.2%. The US proposal for a target was accepted by Japan as long as it was not a fixed target but a reference point. Germany was opposed, saying it was a return to planned economy thinking. China did not comment on the issue. Canada, Australia and the UK supported the US position. The compromise was an effort to continue pressure on China to redirect its policies away from exports to increasing domestic consumption, while still refraining from a fixed target. It also takes some of the pressure off a fast track currency rebalancing, with China expected to increase the value of the yuan, but given more flexibility than the rhetoric would suggest....

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The ECB's rate increase in March 2011, the first since 2009. Euro-zone inflation comes in at 2.4% in February 2011 and producer price inflation at 6.1% for January. Labor market shortages are being seen in Germany as the German economy sees higher job growth.

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As the Indian economy experiences a slowdown in 2019-20 a revealing statistic that lack of loans in the banking system is playing a critical role comes from the central bank, the RBI. Compared to the 6 month period April to September 2018 when 800,000 crore rupees loans were made to borrowers in the first 6 months of 2019 the loan volume dropped to 90,000 crore rupees.

Bad loans in the banking system and mismanagement in the banking system have caused the drop in loans, leading to government efforts to inject money into banks and consolidate banks by merging failing banks into larger better run banks. Additional causes of a slowdown are the drop in consumption, sales decline in the auto and other industries. A cut in corporate tax and the 2020 budget with investments in infrastructure, relaxing fiscal limits to invest more.  are designed to stimulate growth.

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The Vice Chairman of the NITI Aayog, which replaced the Planning Commission, says his work in the government led to significant progress with the Indian economy reaching nearly 8% growth.

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German chancellor Merkel met with leaders of Germany's 16 federal states to come up with an exit plan for reopening the economy from the lockdown in phases. In the first phase shops with up to 800 square metres of space will reopen on April 20. Bookshops, libraries, car dealers, bicycle shops, and museums will open too. Larger retailers will wait till May 4 to reopen. On May 4 school children in primary school can attend school and teenagers can take exams. Germany has 133,000 infected cases, 3592 deaths. Merkel warned that the performance with coronavirus was "fragile and provisional success" and the need for social distancing measures. A ban on gatherings of more than 2 people from separate households will remain in place till May 1. The government will strongly recommend that face masks be worn in public and in shops, public transport. Mass events will be prohibited till September. Bars clubs and restaurants will remain closed at least till May 3, or beyond. ...

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The situation in Changzhi, a city with about 3 million population, as cement factories run at one third of capacity after rampant overcapacity was built up during the period of the boom years. The government's effort to preserve social stability and keep employees on the payroll conflicts with the need to reallocate capital and labor to more productive uses, as the economy undergoes a transformation away from infrastructure building towards other industries.

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Revenue is stagnant but IBM is increasing earnings per share by increasing margins and profits in its services and software business. The software business alone generates 43% of the company's profits. Services business accounts for 57% of its revenue. IBM also continues to expand in emerging markets making it possible for IBM to reduce the effects of cyclical swings in the economy. IBM shares are up 25% in the year to March 2012.

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What were the stories in the Economist magazine that were the most read stories of 2019? Not on president Trump. On Malaysia, China under Jinping, and exodus from San Francisco and Silicon Valley. The most read article was on the newly elected president of Brazil, Jair Bolsonaro. The mismanagement of the economy particularly extravagant state spending on the Olympics and soccer stadiums for the World Cup at the expense of basic sanitation services, bus and transport services, health services, led to the result of a majority of Brazilians rejecting the Workers Party and its leader former president Lula. Unfortunately most of the media including the Economist did not draw attention to this gap. During a period in which income from mining with export of iron ore, and soyabeans to China, enabled Brazil to live beyond its means, there was no effort to draw attention to glaring gaps in development of public services such as sanitation, bus services and transport, lack of building infrastructure other than to support mining. Glaring gaps in education and health services made the situation worse. The second most read piece in the Economist  was on March 10th- Malaysia's PM is about to steal an election. Here the Economist magazine joined the Wall Street Journal which originally broke the story on the 1MDB fund and irregularities in Malaysia where a development fund was misused by the government. Najib actually lost that election and the WSJ covered the story of the developments that followed in which Malaysia's new governemnt led by a returning former prime minister in his nineties Mahathir Mohammed, ousted his own protege Mr. Najib.  The third most read piece in the Economist magazine was - How the West got China Wrong.  Unfortunately the Economist magazine and most of the media covered China in the two decade long boom years without covering the other emerging story as well in which Mr. Lighthizer (now president Trump's top trade adviser) and others questioned the huge unsustainable trade surpluses in U.S. trade with China. With the economy facing huge downside risks and rising trade tensions with the U.S. Chinese president Jinping's move to remove the limit on terms in office in the Constitution was considered a shift from the notion that China was likely to turn into a democracy. Mr. Jinping had already completed his first term in office and the anti-corruption campaign, managing the economic boom for a soft landing, was carried out with the central leadership of the party, after the destabilization evident in the early part of Xi Jinping's first term. Much of China's path was predictable and rational behaviour in its national interest, what was not clearly defined or defended was the way the U.S. could sustain the trade deficits that had reached a billion dollars a day. Leading to Mr. Trump seizing on this as an election issue to form a bloc of voters separate from the two main parties, the Republicans and the Democrats. The fifth most read piece was on Oct 11, 2018- the next recession. It pointed out that with low interest rates central banks in the U.S. and Europe and America could not cope effectively with a recession. The sixth most read piece was on June 29, 2018- Bullshit jobs and the yoke of managerial feudalism. It cited Prof. David Graeber of the London School of Economics, who wrote a short essay that went viral on the prevalence of work that had no social or economic reason to exist, work he called "bullshit jobs". Graeber said people want to feel they are transforming the world around them in a way that is leading to a positive difference. No. 7, 8, 9, were on Bitcoin, Netflix and programming language Python. No. 10 most read was on Aug. 30, 2018- Why startups are leaving Silicon Valley. It showed that in 2017 more people left the county of San Francisco than entered. The main reason the cost of living was burdensome and out of control. As Amazon shifts attention to India and Brazil, and Apple pulls back from India, social media companies coming under fire for disinformation, this period of Tech is making way for a shift in a new direction. A direction that focuses on people's lives, wages, spending on much needed infrastructure and services. ...

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Unitech, DLF, and other builders in India, are switching to affordable housing to meet demand at lower prices of $27000 to $100,000 for a one or two bedroom apartment. This shift means lower margins in the 30 percent range compared to earlier 70 percent margins of DLF. It can make up for profits in volume as there is a growing demand for affordable housing, and prices of raw materials and interest rates are coming down. Buyers are looking for even better prices and some are holding back because of uncertainty about the economy and jobs.

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Some of the statements on the IMF Blog on Inclusive Growth raises the question-Does the IMF, the International Monetary Fund, as an American institution funding developing countries, and economists, grasp what people find troubling in 2022? One of the lessons of the economic crises for families and workers in the US and other countries is that wisdom, a grasp of the soul of a country and its people through the thinking of its founders, and common sense, should drive managing of economies, with a knowledge of how economies work- not economists. Some of that is already happening. America's central bank is headed by Jerome Powell who has wide experience and has knowledge of how the economy runs, is not an economist. He was chosen by president Trump and continues to have the confidence of president Biden for this very reason. Some of the statements on the IMF economic blog are- "Why jobs are plentiful and workers are scarce" Jan 2022 "In the US and UK recent labor market the puzzle, can be partly explained by mismatch, the pandemic's effect on women and older workers leaving the work force." The Reality Wages for teachers are depressed compared to workers in the financial and economics industries, in a frighteningly disproportionate way. When it comes to logistics, hospitality, leisure and restaurants industries workers were paid poorly for what is hard work and long days. In case the IMF economists, and economists at companies, missed this it was called the Great Resignation, people simply choosing to reject the conditions that were handed down to them by the financial industry and economists who built the economic structures of recent decades. Women leaving the workforce are faced with issues of mental health coping with added responsibilities of children at home for the two years, loss of income and widespread mental health problems. The word mental health may be beyond the grasp of economists and the financial industry, yet it is the one of the biggest problems for people. Another pernicious effect noted on the pages of the WSJ is that young white men are dropping out after school because they cannot afford college in alarming numbers. Leading to the kind of discontent for workers and families that president Biden is struggling to address. On IMF Blog- "IMF Podcasts: The Year in Review" Dec. 2021 "The past year has brought us new challenges even as the old ones persist. If anything, the ongoing pandemic has taught us to think differently abut tackling the challenges and questions when it comes to thinking about big issues such as climate change, gender equality, inflation and economic measurement." The Reality Climate change lumped in with economic measurement and inflation. The floods, fires, river and reservoir water levels affecting access to basic life supporting water, drought, all over the world are of a magnitude that is missed entirely.The response to a challenge of this type requires the kind of leadership that president Biden has provided for the world with his $360 billion climate change bill as just the first step of many, and  comprehensive policies covering all aspects of the climate crisis. ON IMF bog- "How Domestic Violence is a Threat to Economic Development." "Stopping violence against women is not only a moral imperative, new evidence shows it can help the economy." The Reality Domestic violence hurts children growing up in such households. It is not so much a moral imperative as it is bad for men, women and children. So many things are wrong about it and it is made worse in conditions of low wages and poor working conditions in poor neighborhoods lacking education. These neighborhoods are also affected by lack of healthcare and the opioid crisis and mental health issues. Not investing in education and healthcare in these communities is what is simply wrong, and which the founders of America as a nation, particularly Lincoln, would find appalling.   Relationship between Capital (the Financial Industry) and Labor (Workers and Families) On the basic issue of the relationship between capital and labor, the IMF and the financial industry, economists, and the economic structure they built in recent decades, have simply got it wrong. It violates both common sense and wisdom, and violates the spirit of the founders particularly Abraham Lincoln. This is what Abraham Lincoln had to say on Upward Mobility, the ease with which each generation can do better than the one before it, as critical in the fight to save the Union. This is from the Annual Message to Congress Dec. 3, 1861, at the start of the Civil War. That upward mobility has been lost in the US with ideas that "place capital on an equal if not above labor, in the structure of government," for the last three decades in the US after the early post war period of Truman and Eisenhower, Kennedy-Johnson.  And Lincoln says this about a hired laborer being fixed in that condition for life, or of future generations of that hired laborer facing disabilities and burdens, similar to the loss of upward mobility for the people today. "Now there is no such relation between capital and labor as assumed, nor is there any such thing as a free man being fixed for life in the condition of a hired laborer. Both these assumptions are false, and all inferences based on them are groundless." "Labor is prior to, and independent of capital. Capital is only the fruit of labor, and could never have existed, if labor had not first existed. Labor is the superior of capital, and deserves much the higher consideration. Capital has its rights, which are worthy of protection as any other rights." "Again: there is not, of necessity, any such thing as the free hired laborer being fixed to that condition for life. Many independent men everywhere in these states, a few years back in their lives, were hired laborers. The prudent penniless beginner in the world, labors for wages awhile, saves a surplus with which to buy tools or land for himself, then labors on his own account another while, and at length hires another new beginner to help him. This is the just, and generous, and prosperous system, which opens the way to all- gives hope to all, and consequent energy, and progress, and improvement of condition to all." Lincoln even offers this warning- No men living are more worthy to be trusted than those who toil up from poverty- none less inclined to take, or touch, aught which they have not honestly earned. Let them beware of surrendering a political power which they already possess, and which if surrendered, will surely be used to close the door of advancement against such as they, and to fix new disabilities and burdens upon them, till all of liberty shall be lost." US president Biden has these ideas in mind as he struggles with one piece of legislation after another to restore what once was, to open the door of advancement, to remove these disabilities and burdens that Lincoln speaks of, and in so doing restoring liberty.   ...

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Mr. Erdogan is reelected in the second round of voting with 52.1% of the vote. Mr Kilicdaroglu got 47.9% of the vote with almost all the votes counted. The four percent margin also reflect the use of all state powers by Mr. Erdogan in the election. Overall it could be said that the vote was a close one after an earthquake and 40% inflation in Turkey. Mr. Erdogan efforts to run for another term is not limited by limits in terms a president can serve in Turkey. By the time he finishes another term in office he will have been in power for over 25 years. He faces difficult conditions for the Turkish economy which badly needs foreign investment. The mayors of Istanbul and Ankara the two main cities in Turkey are from the Opposition Republican party of Mustafa Kemal who founded the modern Turkey we know today in 1923 with the victory over the Entente western powers and Greece ratified by the Treaty of Lausanne. The future looks to be set by one of these two leaders as change is likely so that it has a chance to live up to the aspirations that surrounded its founding in 1919-1923. The transformation of a society at the dividing line between Europe and Asia into a modern state with the best that Europe had to offer from 1923 to 1938 including a new language that would promote the literacy of its people. Mustafa Kemal stated clearly in a speech at Nutuk in 1923 that lasted for several days the process that he had to trust would create a modern state that would compare with the best in Europe- the Turkish people and the National Assembly of the people of Anatolia and Rumelia. Mustafa Kemal did not see the six centuries of Ottoman rule as an example for Turkey in what Ismet who led the struggle for independence on the Greek front and as leading negotiator at Lausanne in 1923 called stemming from "the fire of his soul." Of Kemal it could truly be said he fought for the four momentous years 1919 to 1923 both the Entente Powers as well as the remaining elements of six centuries of Ottoman rule. ...

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Biden's very conservative choices for his cabinet which one British reader of The Times calls UK One Nation type choices. Many of the cabinet members could easily have served under a Republican administration before Trump or a Democratic administration in the tradition of Harry Truman in the 1950's. No members of the cabinet belong to the Bernie Sanders wing of the Democratic Party.  A look at the Truman administration after 1950 shows John Wesley Snyder, who headed a bank in St Louis and worked for the Reconstruction Finance Corporation under Franklin Roosevelt performing a key role for integrating 8 million GI soldiers into the economy, and implementing the Marshall Plan. A similar job awaits another banking official Janet Yellen in Biden's cabinet to keep people employed during the pandemic. Xavier Becerra, currently attorney general of California, and formerly Congressman for 24 years, who endorsed "medicare for all" is the new Health Secretary. He grew up in a one room apartment with his Mexican parents. Secretary of State goes to Anthony Blinken, Dean Acheson was in this role under Truman as the Cold War surged with the Berlin crisis and the Iron Curtain in Eastern Europe. Today the challenges from Russia and China are taking the shape of a revival of tensions. George Marshall who led American forces in the war, was secretary of defense. This position is given to a soldier Gen. Lloyd Austin who led forces in the wars in the Middle East. This has the potential to deliver better results after the years when America veered off course under the administrations of Reagan, Clinton, Bush and Obama, following the Truman, Eisenhower administrations that setup the recovery after World War II. Today after the banking crisis of 2009, disastrous healthcare and infrastructure neglect in the U.S., followed by the pandemic, a recovery like the one after World War II is needed.   ...

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Germany is struggling to deal with the 2.4 million asylum seekers entering the country since 2015. It is getting overwhelmed by the scale of migrants even though immigrants are needed in parts of the economy. In Austria and Poland new restrictions are being placed to stop migrant flow. Denmark has a socialist government that is restricting migrants from entering the country. Britain under Starmer and Labour has made cutting migrant flow a major priority, the Tories failure to cut migrants flow led to its defeat in 2024.