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The current economic expansion in the U.S. in April 2014 is at 58 months from the beginning of recovery in 2009. In this exceptional account Josh Zombrun of WSJ compares the current expansion to previous expansions since 1950, with the views of experts such as Stan Hall of the NBER committee, which studies turning points. This expansion is forecast to go for 90 months into 2016 by the U.S. Federal Reserve, and 102 months into 2017 by the CBO. Sooner or later, says Stan Hall, some adverse unpredictable event takes place that ends the expansion. So far the expansion has been slow and protracted, as predicted by economists Reinhart and Rogoff from previous financial crises in the last century, giving it room to grow as corporate earnings continue to improve. Fed chairwoman's sense of slack in the economy also provides room for employment and incomes to grow in the later stages of the expansion. This is good news for the emerging market economies such as India and China, and for the European Union, faced with slowing growth. So how does this expansion compare with earlier ones. The expansion of the 1991-2001 of the tech boom was 120 months, 1961-1969 of the Sixties 106 months, 1982-1990 of the Reagan era 92 months. The controversial one on shaky foundations is the recent housing boom 2001-2007 of 73 months ending in a huge bust with the 2008 financial crisis. The shorter expansions are the 1975-1980 Post-Vietnam one for 58 months, and the 1970-1973 spurt before the OPEC price surge. Figures are from the NBER, CBO and the Federal Reserve's Summary of Economic Projections....

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The new India built refinery by RIL (Reliance India Limited) in the US at Brownsville, Texas, will reduce US trade balance by $15 billion a year and will produce oil using cleaner US shale oil and newer technologies that are less polluting for the environment.  India's RIL Refinery Project for $300 billion at Brownsville, Texas, is Explained here in the Indian Express. The Project is called America First Refining, and was announced by the US president recently.  $125 billion for 60 million barrels of US shale oil processed annually over 20 years and $175 billion for 2.5 billion gallons of refined product to be produced annually for 20 years. US  imports about 2.8 billion barrels a year and (exports 1 billion barrels a year) at a cost of $180 billion a year. This means the trade imbalance from crude imports will be cut by about 10% annually. The new refinery is the first in 50 years and is designed to process cleaner lighter shale oil from the US Permian Basin -whereas existing refineries are designed with older technology for heavier crude oil such as the US gets from Venezuela. Reliance India Limited has a fast turnaround time on projects- new project will come onstream in 2027. It currently has the world's largest single refining complex in Jamnagar, Gujarat, India.  ...

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Reeves wants to remain UK Chancellor (Finance Minister) and is campaigning for the job. Yet there are questions whether she is the right person. Kiran Stacey of The Guardian asks does Andy Burnham need a clean break from the Starmer administration considering the missteps on disability benefits, cutting winter fuel payments, and other actions of Rachel Reeves. These missteps were not necessary and clearly eroded support for what Labour should be standing up for and doing. The idea that she has something that keeps the bond markets happy is a complete myth- in which case the Tories could do just as well or better. Labour was elected not to be like the Tories but to enact its own program. Clement Atlee was elected in 1945 even after the popularity in the war of Winston Churchill. He could not have done what he did without the clear confidence in himself that Starmer clearly lacks, with the added problem of Reeves instincts in the wrong place for a Labour government elected to enact its own program. If Labour cannot believe in its own programs fro the working class how are working class people in Britain supposed to believe in Labour? That is the problem of the Starmer-Reeves running of the British economy and addressing problems of cost of living, the shrinking of opportunity in Britain, mismanagement left by the Tories.  ...

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Since ancient times the Japanese have believed a life force exists in all creations. Nakahara learned to value all things from an early age, says this NHK Japan video of a woman who settled in a mountain region of Japan thirty years ago after living in the city. In her weaving of cloth, dyeing, and making clothing she practices a zero waste lifestyle that inspires all around her. She uses pampas grass in her backyard for making dyes and makes the cloth using traditional handicraft weaving equipment. Click on Original Article for the NHK video.

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Christoph Hasselbach of DW.com says the idea of European Union brings so much good for Europe that it should not be diminished by use of pressure or punishment. He refers to the firm opinion in Brussels, of Mr. Juncker and Merkel, that there can be no cherry picking when it comes to remaining in the EU. This led in Jan. 2017 to British prime minister May saying Britain would not go begging to Brussels, and would simply opt out of the European Union and the single market. Hasselbach offers an interesting and plausible explanation for the Brexit vote shifting by a small margin to the exit side. He says rightly that uncontrolled immigration fears were used by the politicians supporting exit. Interestingly he says the worries in the UK were not just for current people but for future citizens from the hundreds of thousands of refugees who would become German citizens in a few years. Would they try to settle in the UK- prime minister Cameron failed to provide a convincing answer, says Hasselbach. He is right to point out as we have at Lyrarc that it is healthy to have questions and even some skeptical views about Brussels, that the appeal of the EU must depend on not being dogmatic about it, but being open and willing to accept questions.   ...

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Four million elderly women live alone in Japan. For some like For Chikako Tanaka in Aichi prefecture in central Japan who is 85 years old, social isolation is a real problem. She had no pension and lived on her savings till the savings ran out, with no one to visit her as her dementia progressed. Chikako was an unlikely person to go to prison for shoplifting because she dresses with care and looks different, yet this was the only way out of social isolation. In prison for the first time in years her 85th birthday was celebrated. 

Physiotherapists help women prisoners over 70 years with rehabilitation, walking skills and balancing exercizes. Prison services help women to integrate back into society when they return, with service centers in each neighborhood when they return.  

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For the first time Ukrainian faces doing great work in wartime, staying calm in unbelievable stress, as part of Ukraine Rail, can now be seen. The amazing work done by Ukrainian Railways for helping get refugees to Poland from cities like Kharkiv and Kviv hard hit by shelling, is shown in this Guardian picture essay. On the return trip the trains bring back humanitarian aid from Poland sent by the US and European Union countries. The Ukrainian Railways has 230,000 workers and all of them have remained in the country to operate the trains and train stations in this war and refugee crisis. Many of the trains operate in darkness into stations that are dimly lit. "The soul is torn and the heart aches, as a train driver I see what is going on," says Chumak, 43, the train driver for the Kviv to Lviv trains for evacuation of women, children and other refugees. At the peak 200,000 people were travelling every day going west to Lviv, trains were free of charge for everyone with women and children having priority. In the first 2 weeks of the war 2 million passengers were taken to safety. Shown here also is the train driver Yaroshenko, 36, for Train No. 82  the Uzhorod to Kviv train going to the Slovakian border. During the journey the train lights are turned off near Kviv or anywhere that is dangerous, as he says who knows who might be lurking nearby. He sees himself as part of the Ukrainian war effort. Tetjana, 36, and her daughter Sofia, 5, are shown on a train to Przemysyl in Poland. She worked as a train conductor on evacuation trains till she decided to take the refugee train herself for the sake of her daughter. If tracks are damaged, they are quickly repaired. Territorial defense units protect the key places and bridges so that the risk is reduced, though shrapnel from missile attacks elsewhere can damage windows of trains.   ...

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On major issues- her pledge to sign into law the Lankford Biden bipartisan Immigration and Border Bill after Trump blocked it in Congress for electoral advantage,  Cost of Living going up under Trump with his tariff plan, on abortion restrictions, the BBC says what Harris says is True.  Lyrarc has done its own fact check with effort for broad understanding of how her vision differs from Trump's- "As a prosecutor, when I had a case, I charged it not in the name of the victim. But in the name of. “The People.” For a simple reason. In our system of justice, a harm against any one of us is a harm against all of us." Every day in the courtroom, I stood proudly before a judge and said five words: “Kamala Harris, for the People.” And to be clear: My entire career, I have only had one client. The People This is True. It is also most revealing about this candidate regardless of sex, creed, color or race. It tells so much about this person and the influence that Gandhi and the struggles of India for independence have influenced her views on life through the influence of her mother and her grandfather who had great influence on her life and work- mother Shyamala Gopalan and P.V. Gopalan Shyamala's father a senior Indian Civil Service head for India's Department of Labor 1954 who lived and worked with the ideas an ideals of Mahatma Gandhi. On Immigration she makes a pledge to sign the Lankford Biden immigration law the first in four decades that closes the Border with Mexico and fixes asylum policy. "But Donald Trump believes a border deal would hurt his campaign. So he ordered his allies in Congress to kill the deal. Well, I refuse to play politics with our security. Here is my pledge to you: As President, I will bring back the bipartisan border security bill that he killed. And I will sign it into law." Trump blocked it for personal advantage at the elections to use this as an issue which has blocked a permanent solution. Confirming this is a month old interview in NYT by Republican Senator Lankford saying the legislation he drafted would have passed Congress in December 2023 and signed into law by Biden. It came up in Congress in February by this time Trump was made nominee of the party and he blocked it so that he could use the issue in an election. This says a lot about character and more than mere fact checks shifts focus on the characters of the two people running. Steve Kerr coach of the men's basketball Olympic team says decency humility, values and character, a clear authenticity are essential in a leader. People ask yourselves what you would have done in this situation, and what would Kamala have done, would she have blocked a bill that would permanently fix the Border and change US asylum policy?  Biden went on to do this by executive action bringing migrant flow numbers down to where they were under Trump and Obama, and more than that put together a bipartisan bill with Republican Senator Lankford that Kamala can now sign into law.    ...

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Swathi Shree, 25 years, ranks 42 All India and 1 for Tamilnadu in the Union Public Service Commission civil services exam. She is set to join the IAS. She did her undergraduate degree in Agriculture from RVS Agricultural College in Thanjavur. Her mother is a retired postal assistant.

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After years being driven by others as government officials or party leaders, going back to civilian life can mean learning how to drive. Here Nicola Sturgeon Scottish leader takes her driver license test in Scotland and relearns driving skills after her resignation as head of the Scottish government.

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South Korea with 2069 hours year has the longest working hours of any developed country, according to the OECD,  and only Mexico exceeds this of all countries. In an effort to increase productivity and boost a dropping birthrate the National Assembly in South Korea reduced the maximum number of working hours from 68 hours a week to 52 hours- starting July 2018 and  initially for large companies. In Japan there is actually a word for working to death called "karoshi." The period of rapid industrialization in the fifties and sixties was a period of long working hours for most Japanese men. Today the working hours have dropped to average of 1713 a year. Africa shows the greatest number of countries in which one third of the labor force works more than 48 hours per week. Asia is the region with the longest working hours with 30% of the countries with thresholds of 60 hours or more.The U.S. is one of the countries where there is no limit- most other developed countries in Europe consider work-life balance important and have maximum limits without sacrificing productivity. ...

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Steven Press of the Stanford History Department says "buying Greenland is not a new idea."  Actually Denmark sold hubs in India to the British Empire, offered Greenland for sale to US in 1900's,  and US president Harry Truman offered $100 million in 1946 for Greenland because of it's strategic value in the Cold War. Then why are the EU countries sounding indignation. Denmark was a colonial power in India in the 19th century. Denmark was explored in its widest extent by Robert Peary in the 1880's who proved it was an island by reaching it's northernmost side. Peary advocated for Greenland to be part of the US and the Commanders in Chief all agreed in 1946 the island "was completely worthless to Denmark," yet was vital to the United States, to protect its eastern seaboard. DJT is hardly the first to say this even though the Europeans want to excoriate hime for doing so. In fact it was Secretary of State William Seward in 1867 who looked at acquiring Greenland, when he negotiated the purchase of Alaska from the Russian Empire. Alaska is a lot ,a lot better for natives compared to it being under Russia, and this would be true for Greenland than being under Denmark. Denmark's claim was not even accepted till 1921 with Norway disputing it.  Denmark had not explored the northern part of the country when Robert Peary reached it for the US Navy and claimed it for the US inthe 1880's. It can be said that for these reasons Denmark has little reason to be in Greenland except as a colonial power. Its claims are from 1814 Treaty of Kiel with Prussia. Denmark can hardly protect Greenland's vast shoreline with 6 dogsleds, and security less than the New York Police Department, from Russian and Chinese submarines and ships in the Arctic. The native Inuit population of Greenland has little in common with Denmark as a colonial power. About 60,000 Inuit origin native residents, in the whole island, most of them would fit into one or several American bases, Okinawa alone has 80,000 people. Who would have per capita incomes many times what they are today with better living conditions and standards of health and education, security and air transport under the US.    ...

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In the third and final debate of the 2016 U.S. presidential election Hillary Clinton shows she has mastered the techniques used by Trump to use short jabs and comments to unsettle her opponent, yet doing it in a meaningful way to make a point about how she is better qualified and her program helps the middle and working class.

On taxes she added to her plan about not increasing taxes for people making more than $250,000, with the comment that it would increase her and Trump's taxes provided she said Trump hasn't "figured out how to get out of it." It also was meant to draw Trump's response about not revealing his tax returns and plans to give hugely disproportionate tax cuts to higher income people. Trump called her "a nasty women," in response, which was a point cited by media reports as a negative for women voters.

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A pipeline through Ukraine territory supplies Hungary and Slovakia. It had to be functional and restored for Ukraine to get 90 billion euros from the European Union. Hungary has a new leader and the loan was quickly approved, the pipeline restored weeks after the Hungarian election ousting Orban.

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Women have one of three positions in senior management in the federal government compared to one of six in corporate management. Women make up 41% of management positions at the Government Accountability Office, a federal agency that has women friendly policies including family friendy culture, daycare site at the Washington headquarters, flexible relocation policy, telework policies, and advancing women to positions even as they balance their professional and personal lives such as needs of children. It is not necessary to work 70-80 hours a week to advance to senior positions as in law firms. Susan Poling is a senior executive supervising 156 lawyers, and says in the beginning she was able to work part time to spend more time with her son and still have great things to do and be given higher responsibilities.

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The BBC looks at burnout for service workers in the US and Europe leading to the great resignation. Most service workers are quitting their jobs as the level of burnout has increased in the last few months compared to the early days of the pandemic in 2020. One owner of a restaurant in Britain says she closed it not because there were not enough customers, not because it was losing money. She closed it because workers were not showing up for work. She says whether they say it or not workers at her restaurant were experiencing a lot of anxiety. This meant her carrying a heavy load till she decided it was better to close  when she was on top than be carried out on a stretcher. Another manager of a variety store in South Carolina says after working 60-70 hours a week for months the only way he could get a day off was to ask another manager to do a 16 hour shift. Long work days in the US, low pay, and disrespect for their work, was common for service workers in the US. They now face verbal abuse of customers feeling the accumulated stress of the pandemic and taking it out on service workers. Higher wages are not inducing workers to come back. Service workers are choosing to retrain for other careers with better pay, better hours, or going back to study. ...

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Mediators Pakistan, Turkey sought to separate Iranian nuclear issue to a second stage with a vague Iranian commitment to discuss the issue and future dragging of feet by Iran. The US DJT administration has made this the only issue that must be settled first before a settlement can be reached, and not by a repeat of the half hearted effort by the Obama administration that led to reconstituting Iran's nuclear effort a second time with US financial assistance. For a day on Saturday it appeared that mediators Pakistan and Turkey had accomplished for Iran just that, to the alarm of Republicans in general and in particular senior Senator Graham. Many sections of the media including the WSJ and the business community, see this as a repetition of the mistakes made by Obama and his administration. Not only did Obama not act to work with Republicans on a border policy- simply protecting himself from Republican attack by deportation policies. Obama continued the war in Afghanistan/Iraq for the same reason to protect his chances for reelection. He also used immigration policy to get the Hispanic vote in the closing months of the reelection year. Obama's other foreign policy failure was in believing Iran had been persuaded to give up nuclear weapons, and gave Iran the financial backing that could easily be shifted from economic to military uses and rebuild the nuclear program,  which he has handed to a future Republican adminstration. Obama also ignored how this would affect the economic wellbeing of the Iranian people with the kind of protests and suppression that has happened in 2026. Democrats and the media, some Republicans, are simply ignoring these errors and have never really faced up to the problems in the Middle East and asked the question why there are 5 decades of wars in the Middle East, and coups, strife, wars for the entire period since 1950. In this situation the US, China, India, EU, Brazil and other nations can learn from this experience and act to secure alternative sources of energy, speed up renewable energy transition, and rapidly end all dependence/intervention on a perpetually strife ridden Middle East, which much of the US and international media in a baffling way ignores or does not say outright. ...

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UK Labour party Manifesto of 2024 called for the abolition of the House of Lords- The Guardian says it is "doorstep issue" and not too late to do it in 2026. The House of Lord's would go and be replaced with an upper house chamber more representative of the people of Britain. The Guardian calls it the "rotten house of sleazy patronage" and says that it is not peripheral to the dismal ratings of PM Starmer and Labour, that Starmer's instincts in the Opposition were correct.

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Two women one from Pennsylvania and one from Washington state, one Republican and one Democrat. Opinions did not change. A businessman from Pennsylvania who gave the DJT State of the Union address to Congress an A. Two minority voters, blacks from Georgia call it racist or dictatorial. A small business owner, a Democrat from Dominican Republic, from Pennsylvania calls it offensive to immigrants by describing only the worst of immigrants or migrants. Does not appear to be a good enough sample spread out over the Nation, an unrepresentative with 3 from racial minorities or 43% of sample.

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Mexico continues to be a problem state for the US with drug trafficking a part of the culture, not fully recognizing the damage it does to society in its neighbors, and not accepting responsibility for good governance that respects the lives of people in the North American region. More lives are lost to this drug trafficking across the US borders from Mexico, more lives lost in the US than in all the wars combined since the First World War in 1914. No recognition of this fact and the common responsibility of leaders to the people of North America.

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Apple CEO Cook and manufacturing base in China deference to China security laws to keep a foothold in China. Under Cook Apple held off on diversifying its manufacturing base in China, leaving a legacy sure to be questioned as concentration of supply chain in China has serious repercussions on the manufacturing base of US, EU and India. No participation from Apple in reversing the dangerous deindustrialization of the US, not even an open discussion at Apple and its partner companies, a legacy that will come more and more in the spotlight long after he is gone.

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"The negotiations are proceeding in an orderly and constructive manner. Time is on our side."

On the US blockade of Iranian ports- "will remain in full force and effect" until an agreement is reached and signed.

"Both sides must take their time and get it right. There can be no mistakes!"  "The US-Iran relationship is becoming "much more professional and productive."

DJT stressed that Iran must know "They cannot develop or procure a Nuclear Weapon or Bomb."

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This article in the Financial Times says during a time when income distribution in the US no longer works it is important not to repeat the mistakes made under Clinton and Obama. Biden's appointment of Omarova as Comptroller of the Currency is an effort by Biden to set a new direction. Omarova has considered the direct placing of digitally transferred dollars into the accounts of people in the US who have fallen behind in her paper "The People's Ledger." This is seen as an effort by Biden to get back to an America that works for ordinary Americans.

Anything less would be disastrous for Democrats and even some Republicans politically. A big part of the problem is that financial institutions and markets left to themselves no longer allocate capital in productive or even understandable ways that help the American people.

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Hillary Clinton's estate tax plan would increase the estate taxes on the largest estates from 40% today and her proposed 45% to the higher figure of 65% proposed by Senator Bernie Sanders. Compared to the current $5.45 million exemption only the first $3.5 million would be exempt from estate tax for individuals ($7 million for a married couple). The top rate of 65% would apply to individuals with over $500 million. Beyond $10 million a 50% rate, and beyond $50 million a 55% rate.

The latest proposal adds $260 billion over 10 years adequate to pay for simplified small business taxes, and for expanding child tax credit.  Over 10 years Clinton would increase taxes by $1.5 trillion to pay for expanded education assistance, paid family leave and other programs. She would increase federal revenue by 4% and have the burden fall on only a small portion of households.

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India has one of the tightest lockdowns in the world, Google activity data around retail locations shows mobility down 55% compared to 18% in the U.S. Yet cases are surging and are at a high of 10,000 per day for the last week with deaths up from 600 a day to 1000. 

With consumers preparing for the long run there is less spending and more money going into saving. Sales of everything from shampoo to cars are down. Sales of Suzuki in India are down 83%, and smartphone sales down by 51% in the second quarter of 2020.

GDP is expected to be down by 7% for the fiscal year to March 2021 similar to GDP declines in Europe and the U.S. 

As consumer spending declines the government is planning increasing spending on much needed infrastructure.