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British prime minister, Boris Johnson, who succeeded Theresa May, is bringing in Dominic Cummings as a key adviser. Cummings ran the campaign for Leave in Britain's 2016 referendum on leaving the European Union. Cummings now joins Johnson in trying to tackle getting Britain out of the EU in 3 months by an October 31, 2019 deadline. Cummings is also the man he will rely on if a general election ensues following its loss of support in parliament. At present there is only a 3 vote majority for Johnson's government in parliament and lack of support from moderates in the ruling Conservative party.

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The world today is in a much better position to complete the transition to zero dependence on the volatile Middle East for oil. Today in 2026 the world's largest nations 1. US   2. China  3. India  4. Germany are all free of Middle East oil (India through waivers for Russian sources). European Union and UK is at about 12% which can be quickly substituted from the US+ Venezuela and other sources. US is self sufficient in oil and gas and exports oil to the UK, India, Germany and the European Union. Canada is self sufficient. Germany gets only 6% of its oil from the Middle East, the UK 12%, Spain 13% and Italy 14%. The Iran war is likely to shift more of the needs of UK, Spain and Italy to other more stable sources including oil from the US and Venezuela managed by the US, and other sources. This means that US policymakers can act in the best interests of all the nations of the world for preventing the spread of nuclear weapons and long range ballistic missiles. Germany is moving rapidly to renewable energy and this could bring its dependence on the Middle East to zero. India will meet its needs from Russia for the time being till it also shifts to oil from US+ Venezuela. India get 55% of its oil from the Middle East or about 2.7 million b/d. Russia was an important source of oil for India till the US trade agreement called for it to shift- a 30 day waiver and extension means India can get this oil from Russia without sanctions for the duration of the war. Reducing European demand and Indian demand frees up oil for Japan and South Korea on the world market the other 2 countries dependent on Middle East oil- Japan importing 95% of its oil consumption with imports of 2.5 million b/d and South Korea importing about 2 million b/d or 70% of its consumption. This means Japan and South Korea need a new strategy as they are overexposed to one source just as Germany was and learned a difficult lesson to diversify its sources. Japan has learned to reduce consumption for the same level of GDP and some of this can be through conservation, also tried in Germany in the last 4 years. During the 4 years. of Ukraine war Germany had to find ways to diversify sources Japan and South Korea will need rapidly to do the same in the Iran War. This means that only Japan and South Korea because of their lack of policy direction and vigilance have allowed this overdependence on the Gulf region,  (even as Germany diversified its sources, DJT and Israel were firm on nuclear weapons policy) they failed to see signs that they should diversify. Today in 2026 the world's largest nations 1. US 2. China 3. India 4. Germany are all free of Middle East oil (Indi through waivers for Russian sources), European Union and UK is at about 12% which can be quickly substituted from the US+ Venezuela and other sources.    ...

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U.S. president Obama called Libya and the policy of not following up on helping establish a stable democratic government in Libya his biggest mistake. Kristof of the NYT says people looking back would say Syria and not establishing safe zones is Obama's biggest mistake. He describes the 470,000 deaths in Syria as a huge tragedy that could have been avoided to a large extent by setting up safe zones. In addition the UN estimates that millions of refugees on a scale similar to the partition of India in 1947 were created.There is bipartisan opinion on this. Kristof cites General Cartwright's opinion in a conversation he had with Cartwright that this should have been done. Others who agree are Madeleine Albright, Bill Clinton's Secretary of State, who spoke at the Democratic Convention about how America helped change her life as a young refugee after Russia's invasion of Czechoslovakia following Prague Spring. Albright says force should be used carefully so as not to aggravate the situation but action taken where needed, something that was done successfully under Bill Clinton in the Bosnian conflict following Serbia's ethnic cleansing policy under Milosevic. Not only that, with the diplomacy of ambassador Holbrooke Clinton was able to negotiate the peace accords that hold till today- a huge achievement.  Kori Schake, director of defense strategy in the George W. Bush White House also agrees. This would have improved U.S. relations with Turkey as this was a key Turkish request. And it would have reduced the dimensions of the refugee crisis in Europe, which has hurt the European Union. The Brexit "No" vote many in Britain have attributed to ads showing refugees in endless numbers streaming across Europe's borders. Similar ads were used in Austria's elections. Kristof points out that Secretary of State Kerry's job of negotiating a peace is difficult in these conditions. Another issue raised by Kristof is the lack of Obama's leadership in helping the refugees in Jordan, Lebanon and Turkey, as he points out only 41% of this is funded. David Miliband former British Foreign Secretary, who heads the International Rescue Committee , says 200,000 Syrian kids are growing up in Lebanon without an education. George Washington counseled against getting involved in the wars on the European continent for a young nation, this advice was not followed in the Reagan and other administrations without showing the carefulness needed before action is taken. As Hillary Clinton has once pointed out the situation has resembled a pendulum swinging in the other direction under president Obama, and former Defense Secretary, Panetta, has expressed similar views. Hillary Clinton and Leon Panetta, Gates, Gen. Jones, served in the first term of the Obama administration, many of these mistakes were made in the second term by president Obama and his White House advisors Dennis McDonough, Valerie Jarrett who clearly lacked the deep foreign policy experience of Hillary Clinton, Leon Panetta (who served under Bill Clinton), and Gates who served under many presidents). ...

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Over 50% of respondents in a Pew Research center survey conducted in December 2014 view with disapproval president Obama's handling of race relations, only 40% approve. This includes a steep drop among African-Americans of 16 points since the previous polling in summer 2014. Obama's statement that change is "hard and incremental" comes up short for many Americans who look for leadership in race relations. A cautious presidency fails to speak up for ideals it espoused, for human rights overseas and building a better future for minorities at home, losing precious opportunities at every turn.

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All the extreme rhetoric on how Project 2025 is going to be adopted under a DJT administration has led to unease that there will be deterioration in the government and society.  Yet it simply may not work that way.   A second objective look at Project 2025 and how it's value to Republicans will be carefully evaluated piece by piece by DJT is needed. Keeping in mind 2026 House and Senate elections, winning broad support for the traditional Republican conservative line of thinking, and maintaining the support of all Republicans in the business, government, media and other sectors.  1. Replacing federal employees with party loyalists. This happens at the top of every agency of the government for every government in the US and Europe after an election for the last century. At today's unemployment level of 4 percent, adult males actually 3.9% and adult females 3.6%, and considering the higher salaries paid in the private sector, the tenuous nature of joining as a party loyalist as the national mood can shift at any time and things change again in 2027; where was the federal government going to find employees to be replaced at mid and lower levels? There is also the situation seen in 1928 when a Republican Hoover victory made Democrat NY Governor Al Smith compel a reluctant Franklin Roosevelt, who was just recovering from polio, to run for NY Governor. By 1931 over 3 years Franklin Roosevelt and Columbia University's Frances Perkins tested programs to stabilize employment in the US, introduce unemployment insurance as a new concept, and a 40 hour week also new, in the entire northeastern + midwestern states, all governors working together. By 1931 in just 3 years Franklin Roosevelt was on the clear path to sweeping victory in 1932 with a tested program to stabilize employment. 2.  The No. 1 goal is to restore the traditional family. It is clear in 2024 that the vast majority of Americans, whites, women as well as men, of all age groups, whites as well as Latinos and Asians, blacks, see that things like transgender "have somehow gone too far." 3. Cultural Literacy is needed for any nation to long survive. This is not even on any platform. Yet knowledge about America's history of settlement of the continent -correcting for treatment of American Indians, blacks, Chinese, Japanese without pointless race controversies- is being rapidly lost, and with it an understanding of America's civic institutions and Constitution, its founders and presidents, and evolution of the nation over the 20th century with the Industrial Revolution. The very terminology that has defined public knowledge about these United States is fast disappearing. It is a cause for unease in the minds of people in rural and urban, conservative and other parts of the political spectrum alike of what will happen to America as this is lost. 4. On immigration  a consensus was reached by president Biden that migrant flow was mishandled and the Lankford legislation offered by Republican leaders accepted by both parties to stop the flow. During his first term president Eisenhower conducted a program of returning illegal migrants to their home countries, Germany is doing this now and the UK's Labor party has made it No. 1 priority to stop migrant smuggling. 5. An effort to increase oil and gas production. This will help bring down the cost of living by reducing energy costs in the US and also helping Europe to do the same. Biden had already accepted the idea of the temporary need to do this to ease cost of living burden on the people of this Nation. The economic cost of wind and solar, are ultimate drivers for expanding renewable energy as major form of climate change action. In the first term of DJT 2016-2020 the lower cost of natural gas made it economical to switch from oil to gas. In the Biden term 2020-2024 all the effort to increase EV's on the road ran into the problem of lack of charging stations. It is possible that spread of charging stations could reverse this in the second term of DJT. It is the private sector and also the local governments that play a big part, climate change action will continue, and new R&D breakthroughs will happen to jump start it again.    ...

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Share of mortgages at least 30 days past due declined to 6.39% in the 4th quarter 2013, down from 7.09% a year ago, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association. Foreclosure inventory declined to 2.9% for 4th quarter 2013. Three fourths of the troubled loans are from the period before 2007. The improved economic situation and lower unemployment has helped. Also helping is the increase in prices, with home prices up 8.4% in Dec. 2013 over the prior year, according to Black Knight Financial Services. The price increase has reduced the number of homes "under water"- owing more than the homes are worth- from 19% in Jan 2013 to 11.4% in October, according to Black Knight. Banks have also tightened their lending practices. The progress is uneven with California and Arizona, some of the worst hit states doing better in 2013. Judicial states such as New York and Florida, where courts have to approve foreclosure by banks, are making gradual improvement. About 1.5% of California homes were in foreclosure by the end of 2013, compared to 8.5% in Florida, according to MBA. In 2014 price improvements are expected to slow, and the 10% of homes in various stages of delinquency or foreclosure still remain as a hangover from the housing crisis that slows U.S. economic recovery....

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Crime by violent street gangs with whole sections of cities controlled by different groups, some a remnant of the guerilla wars, has fueled the migration crisis. Many people have left central American countries of San Salvador, Costa RIca, Guatemala, because of the crime and extortion experienced and the lack of law and order in these countries. Criminal violence by these gangs hurts business which leads to even fewer economic opportunities for young people. This leads to a steady flow of migrants to the borders of Mexico trying to enter the U.S. Experts say 95% of homicides in these central American countries are not tackled, with severe distrust of police.  There are fewer emigrants from Mexico as the economy has improved and population growth has slowed. Most of the faces of migrants are now from the Central American countries. A program is underway to create jobs skills in Honduras. But this a small effort in tackling a much bigger problem of violence, lack of economic opportunity, and the legacy of the civil wars in central America in an earlier period that have left whole sections of urban areas under control of former guerillas and militia turned into gangs.  ...

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This report in DW.com says contrary to the stereotypes about rightwing AfD voters being less educated, low income, new studies show the AfD voters come from all levels of society. There is only one thing in common and that is they all think having so many refugees is bad for Germany. They don't want refugees to migrate to Germany. Recently the AfD has made gains in German elections with chancellor Merkel's policy leading to a large number of refugees entering Germany. Germany has seen a realignment in many ways. The Social Democrats have lost support as voters shifted to the Greens party which now has about 20% support among German voters, and the Free Democrats have come back to about 10% under Mr. Lindner. The AfD swing as the mood shifts away from Merkel's policies, is one of many trends in Germany. The Christian Democrats also have a new leader as the traditional parties go back to their roots following a period when Merkel's policies erased many of the differences between the traditional SPD and CDU during the period of coalition governments dominated by Merkel's Christian Democrats. The SPD suffered serious election losses as Merkel pursued centrist positions. ...

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The amazing thing about Katherine was that with only a pencil and a slide rule she could calculate the precise trajectories for Apollo 11 to land on the moon in 1969. She could do so much of the math in her head that determined the success of missions to the moon and other planets.  Another amazing thing is that even though the white women worked separate from the white men and the black women worked separately, there was mutual respect. As Katherine puts it NASA was a very professional organization and there was not the time to think what color I was. She said she never had a feeling of inferiority, never, she thought of herself as good as anybody else, and not any better. NASA has its computational facility named after her. She also had a famous line- calling her group of women mathematicians at NASA "computers in skirts." A movie "Hidden Figures" recalls this time and the women at NASA, America's space program agency. ...

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This article in DW.com cites experts who point out that the Republican Party always had tensions within it because of the diverging interests of three groups that have allied together to form the party- Wealthy businessmen and corporate interests, evangelicals, and white working class people who have seen their incomes decline for several decades. The interests of each group have some overlap, are sometimes masked but frequently they diverge. Nigel Bowles, former director of the Rothermere Institute at Oxford University, says there is no particular reason that this coalition would hold together, that it was unstable to begin with, a wonder that it did not split up earlier. Scott Lucas, an expert on American Studies at the University of Birmingham, says that Reagan showed great skill in holding this coalition together, and Donald Trump has taken it apart by mobilizing only one constituency of white working class voters and leaving out others. The break between Republican party leaders Ryan, McCain, and state party leaders, with Trump is unprecedented in post war American politics, and putting it back together now looks like a lost cause in the medium term.  ...

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The view of economists who point to anegative feedback loop, a vicious cycle where tight credit conditions weaken the economy which furter deteriorate the condition of financial markets and banks resulting in even more depressed economic activity. The collapse in consumer lending in October for instance leading to a collapse in the automobile markets resulting in more layoffs and plant closures which in turn exacerbate the economic condition and reduce consumer spending even more. The housing market is a key to all this as the root of the credit market problems of banks have to do with mortgage securities that have soured as house prices went down and foreclosures losses rose. With a drop in consumer spending and increase in umemployment as a result of the tight or nonexistent credit the housing prices are further depressed, resulting in a virtual collapse in credit, as happened in October with issuance of securities backed by consumer debt drying up for lack of buyers. The government steps in to unclog credit markets but housing price decline is still underway as these measures like the Fed's decision to buy $600 billion in Fannie and Freddie securities do not change the fundamental mechanism of dropping prices, as homeowners under water or potential buyers facing layoffs or no access to mortgage credit shy away from the market. ...

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China's strategy appears to be to allow the transfer of TikTok ownership to an American consortium and focus it's efforts on renegotiating the 30% tariff on China and China's response of 10% on the US. China is making an effort to protect industries in China that have surplus production. China wants DJT to meet Xi for a Summit in Beijing instead of South Korea as the US has suggested. And Xi  offers to make a visit to Washington DC to improve relations. Scott Bessent and the USTR Greer in negotiations  with the Chinese trade negotiator Vice Premier of Economic Policy, He Lifeng, in Madrid, have come up with an agreement. The US COngress has passed legislation requiring the sale of TikTok to US owners because of sensitive information issues. China now reversed its policy in April when it opposed this as it now sees little advantage in that policy and can concentrate on better trade terms from DJT. A stumbling block is the flow of fentanyl for which DJT imposed 20% of the 30% tariff on China, the other 10% being standard for all countries. ...

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Rockwell Collins CEO, Clay Jones, talks to the Journal's David Kesmodel, about Rockwell's strategy as the U.S. Defense Department faces large cutbacks. Rockwell supplies the cockpit electronics on military aircraft. With the growth in sales of Boeing's 787 Dreamliner and Airbus's jumbo jet, Jones is shifting resources, capital investments and engineers to the commercial aircraft business. He tells Kesmodel that his No.1 problem is to position Rockwell in the international area to benefit from sales to India, Saudi Arabia, Brazil, Turkey, South Korea, Australia, countries which he says will have to build their own aircraft capabilities as the U.S. pulls back from overseas bases. He sees international sales going up from 33% to 40%. Only small acquisitions are planned, of between $50-100 million, as Rockwell prefers organic growth.

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For Republicans not to back ajobs bill creates aquandary for voters.

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Retired General James Mattis headed Central Command under the Obama administration. He is the new U.S. Defense Secretary. Mattis is critical but has said "there is no going back" on the Iran nuclear agreement. Mattis also has said any U.S. president regarding allies as "freeloaders" is nuts. This is different from Trump's campaign speeches, Yet the trait of Mattis in Afghanistan and Iraq duty is that of aggressively following the enemy, he has been called "Mad Dog,"  and the 66 year old officer brings deep battlefield experience, is highly regarded in the military ranks, and had friction with the Obama administration- traits for which he is well regarded by Trump.

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Jonathan Martin of the NYT documents the many ways in which the current campaign for the U.S. presidential election sets alarming precedents- in the frequent use of untruths and inflammatory language, vulgar discourse. Republicans and Democrats alike are cited who say this has deteriorated the public discourse in the country. Martin documents the ways in which the Trump campaign has set a downward course. The language on television has deteriorated says Martin, and in some ways politics is catching up with it. The media has also failed to exercize proper scrutiny of candidates, and some experts say much soul searching may be needed in the future for the media and politicians if the country is to get back to dialogue based on facts.

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This piece in the BBC describes the situation for Turkish military officers who fled by helicopter to Greece following the coup attempt. Greece finds the situation complicated by Erdogan's decision to bring back the death penalty, as this is opposed by the EU and poses questions in international law.

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It is only 10 days from the Thursday July 4 election night and Keir Starmer went to work immediately Here is what he said today: "My new cabinet hit the ground running. We’ve lifted the ban on onshore wind. We’ve created a national wealth fund to invest in and grow our economy. We’ve met NHS bosses to get the 40,000 extra NHS appointments we need each week and 700,000 urgent dental appointments up and running as quickly as possible. The Department for Education is resuming and expanding its recruitment campaign to kickstart our promise to hire 6,500 new teachers. We’re taking emergency measures to pull the justice system back from the brink of collapse. And, on day one, we scrapped the Rwanda gimmick and began setting up a new Border Security Command to smash the people-smuggling gangs for good. Now is the time for politics as public service. A government committed not to its self-preservation but to uniting the country in the shared mission of national renewal. The start of the road back to restoring people’s hope and faith that politics can be a force for good. No more gimmicks, lies and self-serving self-obsession – this government knows we have a duty to the people we are elected to serve." ...

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China and India as rooted today in the original scientific mind of the Buddha and the Rishis are capable modern science based societies that can not only coexist with Christian Europe and Americas but also inspire other societies. About 33% or one third of the 1.2 billion Chinese people believe in Buddhism or a Bodhisattva, and 18% believe in Taoist deities. 47% believe in feng-shui arranging objects in space for environment and harmony. This is shown in a Pew Research survey. Buddhism is a religion that is not practiced officially with hierarchy and churches as in Catholicism. As a result faith and prayer happens in visits to small shrines in the home or in the neighborhood. Only 4% of people will say that they identify with a religion as religious beliefs are seen as close to superstition and backwardness that held China back from adopting science and modern technology from 1400 to 1900. This makes surveys difficult to trust in a Communist society.   A close observation from a Buddhist perspective in Asia would show that the vast majority of Chinese have a faith in Buddha or Taoism. Buddha's writings show a modern mind asking scientific questions about the mind and about life which can be consistent with science and technology and being modern. As in the original Upanishads and Vedic writings of Rishis what is called Hinduism in western language also ask questions with a scientific mind which were obscured by myth and superstition over 1000-1900. Both the original Vedic and Buddhist writings are not only not going to hold India and China back, when correctly presented they are capable of becoming a new force for advancing science and technology in society while retaining the roots of civilization in Four Forms of Mindfulness of the Buddha that give societies hope for the future. This offers hope for the future of China and India as a modern, scientific civilization with roots in the writings of the Buddha. ...

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Glassman cites Ronald Reagan who once said economists are people who look at things in practice and then see if they can prove this in theory. He co-authored a book on "Dow 36,000" in 1999. What happened and why? He correctly says the Dow is up to 12,000- and this only after Fed chairman Bernanke's $600 billion quanitative easing on top of low to zero interest rate policies after the 2008 crisis- in the 12 years since. So what happened? Glassman says what he did not account for is the huge decline in the prospects for the U.S. economy, with Congressional Budget Office estimates of 2% growth over the next 70 years, compared to the 3.5% growth in the first 50 years of the 20th century. A lot goes go into this, including the debt buildup, the lack of investment in human capital and K-12 education. The other is the huge volatility in stock returns, and the "discontinuous" risks stemming from things like the home price crash, terrorist 9/11 attack and other such developments. He says he is tired of telling investors to hold on in the face of such huge volatility and uncertainty. He advises a cautious strategy, a pull back from stocks to reduce the downside on returns and a smaller allocation to stocks....

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After the Apple sales warning following the slowing down of the Chinese economy, this report asks who will be next- Starbucks, Nike? Starbucks has 3600 stores in China. Nike sales in China were on the upswing till the sales slowdown in China. Experts say more sales warnings are expected as Chinese consumers cut back sharply. Chinese consumers are gloomy about prospects for the future considering the trade tensions with the U.S. and the effects on the Chinese economy of tariffs.

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President Obama comments on the Trayvon Martin shooting saying- "Trayvon Martin could have been me 35 years ago." Trayvon is a black youth shot by police in a Florida gated community. Obama was critical of racial profiling and gun laws. Obama said three sets of experiences are shared by African American youth- being followed in department stores, hearing the click of car doors locking as they cross the street, or watching women clutch their purses nervously when they enter an elevator.

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Gregory Fleming was President and Chief Operating Officer of Merrill Lynch in 2007 and left when it merged with Bank of America. He later joined Yale Law School as lecturer. The new CEO of Morgan Stanley Gorman has appointed Fleming as head of Morgan Stanley's investment management business. Fleming played a key role in the combination of Merrill Lynch investment managemet with money manager Black Rock, where he was a director. At Merrill Fleming oversaw the private equity and real estate investment businesses.

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FR24 looks at the work of Didier Deschamps in building a good French National team. Karim Benzema was back, with Mbappe, Griezman, Pogba, for the first time during the European championships. Deschamps takes the French team into the World Cup in 2024 without Benzema and by turning Griezman and Giroud into players who can take the place of Benzema and Pogba out from injuries. He was the youngest captain at 24 to win the Champions team title for a French club Marseille in 1993, and he brings experience that goes back 30 years as player and coach.