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The president of Ohio Christian University, Mark Smith, says there are six different faith groups out there in Ohio supporting Romney, and there remains a high level of intensity driven by a desire to protect religious liberty from an enroaching expansion of the state. He says the public fight of the Obama administration with Catholic hospitals and charities was seen as a threat by evangelical Christians. The evangelical vote makes up 30% of the vote in Ohio, 31% in Iowa, and 26% in Wisconsin.

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Romney's advisors work to re-focus the campaign with more time spent by the candidate in the swing states and states too close to call- Iowa, Colorado, Wisconsin. This is in addition to Ohio, Florida and Virginia, which are seen as critical.

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Republican success with the blue collar vote and the failure of Democrats to attract those without a college degree. Republican gains came from areas that were older, less diverse and less educated, says Farnam. Republican support was not as strong on both coasts and in areas with Latino voters.

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With hyperinflation of an astounding 1 million percent, the popularity of Mr. Maduro has slipped to 14%, says this report in the Washington Post. The opposition leader has about 60% popularity according to a recent Datanalysis poll. The military, says the Washington Post, is not defending Maduro, it is defending themselves. Even a amnesty law may not be sufficient. 

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The views being currently argued in meetings with the President about the war in Afghanistan and Pakistan. Vice President Biden's view: Completely change the goal and strategy. Scale down the military presence. Change the goal from protecting the people from the Taliban- and note that reports on the ground suggest that the people are indifferent and see the Americans and the Taliban as equally bad, with the Americans as foreigners far worse, see Doris Kearns others- to accelerated training of the Afghan forces to fight the Taliban. The focus of US interests would shift to Pakistan. Biden points to the disparity for every $1 spent in Pakistan $30 goes to Afghanistan, and the US real interests lie in Pakistan, not Afghanistan. The US would work with Pakistan to take out Al Quaeda in the border regions. And the proof is that this is working, as Al Quaeda figures have been taken out with Pakistan's help. Counterinsurgency would be replaced by counter terrorism so the US doesn't get bogged down in support of a failing government. The fraud in the recent elections and increasing isolation and loss of support for the Karzai government, supported by unofficial evidence from the ground, make this a serious option, especially as President Obama knows the Karzai government does not merit support and presents a losing proposition. The second view is that of Secretary of State Hillary Clinton- Ike Shelton of Missouri on the Armed Services Committee and Leslie Gelb (see links) share this view- who said in an interview on PBS, "Well Al Quaeda's no longer in Afghanistan. If Afghanistan were taken over by the Taliban, I can't tell you how fast Al Quaeda would be back in Afghanistan." The problem with this view is that the US has only a limited presence in a large mountainous country with the difficult terrain that Afghanistan has, and its not American ground troops that have done the damage in taking out Al Quaeda, its mostly high tech drones. WIth a wider engagement and expanded US ground troops in support of a failing government, that is alleged to have corrupt and narcoltics connections, the popular support would dwindle to the point that the extra troops would not be seen as protecting the population- because how do you protect a people who simply don't care or are suspicious of you? The solution requires some sort of settlement with the Taliban, which guarantees that it not serve as a haven for Al Quaeda. Progress with schools and modernization would have to be, at least in the short run, be given upon the basis of the U.S. coming to terms with what it can and cannot accomplish at an acceptable cost, and the idea of vital interests not lying in Afghanistan but Pakistan. The missing elements in this puzzle would help this strategy, bringing together key countries in South Asia, India and Pakistan, to assume greater joint responsibilities and abandon the entire postindependence. approach to relations. The third view is that presented by Bruce Reidel, who led the Obama administration's strategy review of Afghaistan and Pakistan earlier this year, and is based on pragmatic considerations and the unofficial information on the ground. Reidel puts it this way: "A counterinsurgency can only work if you have a credible and legitimate Afghan partner, and thats in doubt now." And he goes on to say "part of the reason you are seeing a hesitancy to jump deeper into the pool is that thay are looking to see if they can make lemonade out of the lemons we got from the Afghan election." For a complete change in policy and focus Obama would have to admit that he now has different information, and he is willing to admit to have misread the situation during the first 6 months and during the campaign. That is a test of leadership, being able to change after looking at the reality of the situation and digesting it fully. ...

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Shavit, a senior columnist for the Israeli newspaper Haaretz, says the conditions for peace in the Middle East exist in the changing political and social landscape after the Arab Spring and the social protests in Israel. This was reflected in the emergence of a new party with popular support in the recent Israeli elections. Both movements are focussed on internal changes within society- Arab societies and Israeli society. This creates new opportunities says Shavit for a quiet movement and contacts betwen the people in the Middle East to improve living conditions and democracy. This is more firmly grounded than past efforts because it is based on popular sentiment, and less dependent on failed negotiations between the leaders in the Middle East. He points to failures in decades of such negotiations and finds a more promising atmosphere in the general feeling in the Middle East that focusses on the region's problems in inequality, jobs, infrastructure, and opportunity.

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Robert Kaiser, former managing editor of The Washington Post, reviewed this book on Joe McCathy in The Washington Post on August 7, 2020. It shows the link with today of Senator Joe McCarthy and Roy Cohn, the then 27 year old lawyer chief counsel of the senate subcommittee on investigation when Joe McCarthy became chairman in Jan. 1953. The book is-  Demagogue The Life and Long Shadow of Senator Joe McCarthy by Larry Tye. Roy Cohn passed on some of the methods used at that time to Mr. Trump. Kaiser points out that the senator Joe McCarthy assembled "a coalition of the aggrieved." Tye shows that it started with the junior senator from Wisconsin making a speech in West Virginia for Lincon Day dinner to the Republican ladies of Wheeling, W. Va. The senator used it to talk about threat of communists working in the State Department. He claimed there were 205 Communists. Today we know that this was just made up by McCarthy, at a time when Winston Churchill made the speech about the Iron Curtain in Eastern Europe and the Soviet Union and a sense of shock in America at the People's Republic of China being formed in 1949 under CCP chairman Mao tse tung. McCarthy saw this as an opportunity to gain prominence and a Senate career. What is seen from this carefully researched book is that for a while it succeeded in putting many of the Nation's best leaders on the defense. This includes Harry Truman, Eisenhower himself who disdained McCarthy's and Cohn's methods, Gen George Marshall who was a mentor to Dwight EIsenhower, Joe Stilwell, and other military leaders who ran the 1940's war effort under Marshall in Europe against the Nazis and in China against the Japanese imperialists. On the domestic side it included the head of TVA and the new Atomic Agency setup by president Truman. Gallup said at that time of McCarthy's 38% support in the US following his censure in US Senate by 67-22  -even if it was known that McCarthy killed five innocent children they would still go along with him. Tye writes that in that atmosphere similar to the sense of shock at China's rise and America's loss of manufacturing and falling behind in infrastructure by 2016, in that atmosphere if one told a small lie or big lie it made not much difference in public's penalty or censure, then why not tell a whopper of a lie. This became the ethic for a while in 2016-2024 similar to the period till the collapse of McCarthyism in America by 1957 with McCarthy's death in 1957 and in 1960 the election of John F. Kennedy. What is forgotten is that Richard Nixon a young senator from California was part of the group in Congress, so that in some shape or form it existed and remained part of the Reagan efforts to push back against the Soviets that led to wars in Afghanistan and then Iraq sapping the Nation's energies and resources and with faulty economic theory allowed China to dominate key industries and outspend America in infrastructure investment, creating the kind of shock that led to the second McCarthyist decade under Mr. Trump. ...

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This opinion piece in DW.com says India's prime minister should not isolate prime minister Sharif of Pakistan, as he had no part in the escalation of tensions in Kashmir. Foreign and military affairs are now run by the Pakistan Army, and isolating Sharif only entrenches the Army it says, which has kept up tensions similar to the situation in 1999 with the Kargil crisis when the Pakistan Army initiated a conflict in Kargil region. At that time Indian premier Vajpayee and Pakistan premier Sharif were improving relations. 

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Fausset of the NYT looks at a rust belt city in the U.S. midwest that has suffered as U.S. manufacturing declined. Much of the decline happened in the 1980's in the steel industry in competition with Japanese imports. North of town there is a GM plant that makes the Chevy Cruze. The unemployment rate of 17% in 2010 has dropped to 7.6%. Fausset describes the life of a retired steel worker on state pension who works in law enforcement. He is Joe Marshall Jr. from the song by Bruce Springsteen about a steel worker who the singer read about in a book. Youngstown appears to be divided by people who support Trump and Clinton.

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Nate Cohn of the NYT points out that based on the way in which moderate voters shifted to vote for Cruz in Wisconsin, especially in the eastern part of the state, this could be a turning point in the Cruz campaign. Cohn cites exit polls showing 29% of moderate voters went for Cruz in Wisconsin compared to 12% in Michigan and 15% in Illinois. In Madison's Dane County, a moderate area, Cruz had 38% of the vote. If this proves to be resilient then Trump could become the underdog in California, Indiana, Maryland, and Montana, with Pennsylvania becoming competitive, says Cohn. Reasons why this shift of moderate voters to Cruz could be a lasting shift are the results on March 15, 2016, with Cruz getting 40% of the vote in Missouri, and 30 percent in Illinois.

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The protests in Hong Kong could end up as a failure because of the lack of any leadership in the movement for Hong Kong rights. In the early stage the lack of leadership helped build up mass support. As the movement grew it also had weakness in the form of a lack of a coherent program for negotiations with the central government in Beijing. The risks inherent in internet mass media communication are apparent as it brings out people in large numbers nd amplifies all grievances, but fails to produce tangible or concrete results as time passes and lack of coherent leadership weakens the mass movement or makes it overreach.  The lack of communication between the Hong Kong government and protesters with Carrie Lam Hong Kong's CEO not meeting them also led to a lack of a negotiated way out.  This overreach is what Friedman talks about in the NYT saying that the limited universal suffrage offered by China in 2014, with Beijing crossing off candidates openly critical of it, should have been accepted by Hong Kong protesters in negotiated settlement with some protections. The 1200 electoral body would vote for which candidates should stand for election in the Beijing formula. This was not such a bad thing as it offered limited suffrage where there was none in China, says Friedman. By rejecting that formula the protesters gained little because the "perfect" is not always the best option or a practical option when all the realities are taken into account. This is happening again in 2019 with the protesters and Beijing moving further apart and creating a bigger gap with very little constructive communication between the two sides. The efforts to bring the U.S. into protecting Hong Kongers rights by protestors marching to the U.S. consulate also could be seen as going too far by the rest of the people of mainland China, as the U.S. has its own problems including growing inequalities and confrontation between different socio-economic groups. The gradual shift to more disruptive tactics and confrontation with police led to damage to public structures that affected the image of the protesters. The overall lack of a coherent leadership that could negotiate some form of agreement for the future is now seen as a problem for the protest movement. It could lead to a failure to secure the Hong Kong rights protestors seek, says Friedman in the NYT, creating a story of missed opportunities with missing communication, missing negotiation around a "do-able" agenda that builds on common ground between the opposite parties. ...

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Lars Kingbeil SPD parliamentary head March 2025 negotiations with CDU head Merz for a new government in Germany following federal elections. Combined the 2 parties have 45% of the vote with the Left having 9% and the Greens 12% in Opposition and AfD having 21%. In addition Wagenknecht and FDP received 9% of the vote. About 80 percent of the German vote still went to non far right parties in a period of immigration anxiety and economic contraction. Strong action on immigration should by Merz and the CDU that was missing from Scholz and SPD, and weak economic leadership from Scholz limited by the FDP's Lindner Finance minister replaced by CDU under business friendly Merz should change Germany's situation in the next 4 years. It will making immigration issues fade by 2027 and help Germany's economy rebound with investments in key areas.  Merkel and Merz are very different leaders. Merkel a pastor's daughter with a physics background lacks the business background in capital markets of Merz and the ability to understand the mood and thinking of Germans in the industrial west and south of the country and in Bavaria's Munich region (CSU). ...

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 Harris's role for the Border was limited to telling Central American migrants to stay home. Much of the migration was a result of wars started in the Reagan years in Central American states of Nicaragua and San Salvador. This destabilized the region and led to gangs taking over parts of the country in San Salvador and entrenching Castro style regime in Nicaragua, leading to outward migration of young people. As this report points out Harris was supposed to take on decades of such misguided policies in Central America in a few months. A drought hit agricultural coffee regions of Guatemala increasing migration. Her role instead was to ensure several wins. Win No.1 to generate stability setting up the peaceful transfer of power in Guatemala, singling out corrupt regimes. Win No. 2 to generate jobs. US AID and IFDC loans were increased, foreign investment attracted to generate 250,000 jobs. Win No. 3 the increased stability led to gradually declining migration from Central America. What replaced it was Venezuela. And that is a repeat story of Reagan style wars in Central America. Under the Trump Administration the US did not take up the Monroe Doctrine and act directly to support a stable fairly elected government in Venezuela, an obvious solution. Instead going half way- destabilizing the government but then left it on its own. The result about a third of the population leaving the country in these years to Colombia and other parts of Latin America in a immense humanitarian tragedy.  In 2023 Venezuelans not Guatemalans entered at the US Border in large numbers, most of them middle class families that left Venezuela after hyperinflation and mismanagement of the economy. Realizing the danger by January 2024 Biden negotiated with Senate Minority Leader McConnell and his Republican representative Senator Lankford to pass legislation in the Senate closing the Border. All that was needed was the House to act and 30 years of Border problem would be solved.This was blocked in the House by new Speaker Mike Johnson on advice from former president Trump who chose to use the issue in the 2024 election. Biden then used his executive powers to close the Border leading to lower numbers of migrants under Biden by July 2024 than under Trump. Migration Border Czar was never a term used by Democrats in the Obama and Biden years. Biden who also served in a role given migration as one of the issues to handle under Obama, had this as only one of his assignments. Biden played more important roles in foreign policy with his experience as chairman of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee for decades. Border policy was made by president Obama and his advisers. The same is true of Harris, Border policy being done by president Biden and his advisers. Similar to Biden's role as VP Harris was given assignment to cover foreign policy and was the US representative at 3 Munich Security Conferences in 2021-2024 following the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Chancellor Scholz of Germany said of Harris last week that he had full confidence in Harris as both competent and experienced. ...

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Polls just days before the French presidential election show independent candidate Macron getting about 60% of the 18-24 year age group. There is discontent in this age group because of high unemployment. The unemployment rate is 24% for people below age 25, higher than 18% before the financial crisis of 2008, compared to 7% in Germany for this age group. For people 25 to 29 years it is 14%. This is why Marie Le Pen has appeal in economically struggling northern towns. Yet most French people are finding it difficult to take on an agenda as radical as Le Pen's that takes France out of the eurozone. In the final debate just 24 hours before the vote Le Pen entered into a discussion about leaving the eurozone but showed she had no clear idea of what this would mean for France. She described Brexit as an example and Macron shot back that Britain was never in the eurozone to begin with, and it appeared that Le Pen was just hoping that it would all work out, without a clear grasp of the facts. She had no response to Macron on how an exit could create panic in the markets and lower the value of savings of ordinary French people by about 20%. On pensions she stated that 60 was the age for retirement under her plan opening herself up to the criticism that she had no clear idea of the facts as Macron pointed out- that it would mean lower benefits or higher payments into the retirement system. This may be why even some young people who see the banking experience of Macron as a liability, may be offset by others who see this as a possible asset because of the need for some valuable experience in an independent candidate, as described by Dalton.    ...