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The Irish far economy is vulnerable and the Irish farmer at risk following Brexit. Rivals to prime minister Varadkar in the coming election say he has the M50 mentality, referring to the beltway around Dublin, not thinking enough of the Irish farm economy. A hard Brexit would have cut the Irish growth to 0.7% under Theresa May and now to 3.7% under Boris Johnson from the 6% for 2019.  This is happening as the Irish farmer depends on Britain for exports as he has for seven centuries.  Britain is the biggest importer of agricultural products from Ireland. Sinn Fein is gaining ground in this urban-rural divide with 25%, and so is Centre right Fiana Fail at 24%, with 20% for the current prime minister's party, in recent polls. Irish economy also depends on imports from Britain for machinery and trade agreement with Britain is crucial for Ireland now that Brexit has happened. All along Ireland's coast on the Atlantic Ocean for farmers this is a worrisome situation. ...

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Boris Johnson wins an 80 seat majority for the Conservatives in parliament in the 2019 election. He gets a mandate for a quick exit from the European Union by the end of January 2020, and billions of dollars in public spending on infrastructure, the NHS, and public services. He gets an unexpected 364 seats in parliament after winning the support of working class voters hurt by the financial crisis and by industrial decline. Working class voters in the north of England and the Midlands decided to trust Mr. Johnson. The Labour party won 203 seats, its lowest total since 1935.  The British pound surged to its highest level since May 2018, and domestic stocks surged with their best day since 2010. Part of the optimism stems from the size of the win that gives Johnson more flexibility at home and more leverage with the European Union to negotiate Brexit that works best for Britain. Working class areas that suffered for decades with loss of heavy industry, decaying infrastructure and poorer public services put their trust in Johnson's pledge to spend more to revive these areas. Johnson called his government "The People's Government" in his victory speech and promised to spend $131 billion on infrastructure, the National Health Service, schools, and public services. Johnson said in the speech that working class families may- "only have lent us your vote. I am humbled that you have put your trust in me, and that you have put your trust in us. And I and we will never take your support for granted." The other big event in this election is the election win in Scotland of the Scottish National party winning 80% of the seats and seeking a referendum on independence. Mr. Johnson has stated that he clearly opposes this. In Northern Ireland a majority of legislators were elected who favor unity with Ireland. This sets up a constitutional struggle that Mr. Johnson faces in his first elected term in office.   ...

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A cabinet minister loses his job in Japan after making a joke about cost of rice. The cost of living crisis is real in Japan with the doubling of the cost of rice. The minister joked that he did not have to buy rice as he got it as a gift.

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Wang Huning, who has shaped the policies of three Chinese presidents, was a professor at Fudan University in Shanghai, before beng selected by president Jiang Zemin in 1995 to join the Communist Party of China's Central Policy Research office. The Policy Research Office provides research and guidance on foreign and domestic policy to China's leadership body, the Politburo. Huning was dean of the law school at Fudan, and head of its international politics department. He studied French at a foreign languages school during the Cultural Revolution upheavals in China, before going to Fudan University in 1978. Xi Jinping, the current president, was sent like many other Chinese leaders to work on a farm in the countryside during that period. In that same year 1978, Li Keqiang, the current prime minister moved to Peking University, after taking the first university entrance exams in 1977 following the Cultural Revolution. Li studied western constitutional law, later focussing on urbanization for his postgraduate work. Huning studied in the U.S. in 1989 and is familiar with the American system, western concepts of government and economy. His specialization at the international politics department was in comparitive politics- the systems of government of different countries- and he is seen by experts as having been a key influence in defining China's path making move to build a market economy under public ownership, seeing it possible for the two to work together. In 1991 Huning published "America Against America," critiquing the American political system and pointing out that in American democracy major economic decision making powers still rested mainly in private consortiums, with this acting as a constraint on political democracy. These ideas gradually evolved into ways to manage China in a world with alternative systems and political history. For Huning the question facing China was one of of finding its own workable model based on its history and experience, and need to manage the transition to a modern economy in a stable environment. Huning is now part of the Politburo and a candidate for a seat on the Standing Committe in 2017. At 57, he is expected to be part of the leadership for the next decade, having helped three presidents shape domestic and foreign policy, setting the direction for China's transition to a modernized economy and a political system that accomodates the needs of a new generation....

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Speaking at the Davos forum, economist Nouriel Roubini, who correctly predicted the global economic crisis, says this recovery is likely to peter out by the end of of 2009 with a long period of "sub-par gowth" ahead. His optimism for the emerging market economies is tempered by what he sees as an "asset price bubble" developing in China, Russia's aging population and political obstacles to structural overhauls in Brazil and India. In the U.S. and Europe other economists also generally agreed that the recovery will be "U-shaped" or "W-shaped" implying this recovery in late 2009 will not last beyond 2010.

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Ariana Huffington of the Huffington Post recalls her days growing up in Athens. She says from her own personal experience that the children should not be penalized for the mistakes of their parents, that the next generation should not have to live desperate lives for the next decade under ECB policies that leave no room for growth. She adds her voice to voices in France, Spain, and other countries in the eurozone about the impact of current EU and ECB policies on Europe, and says exiting the eurozone is a difficult option, but like the Argentine example offers more hope for growth for the young generation in Greece.

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Koichi Hamada, a former professor of economcs at Yale University, is one of prime minister Abe's advisors for the policy called Abenomics. He says the increase in the consumption tax was never part of Abenomics. It was the legacy of the previous Democratic Party of Japan's policies and of prime minister Noda, who pushed for it in the last 2 years of his administration. Nikkei polls in 2011 showed 53% of the public opposed to the doubling of the consumption tax to 10% by 2015 proposed by Noda and passed in 2012. Ichiro Ozawa's group of legislators left the DPJ over this issue. The real force behind the push to double the tax was the Finance Ministry, which warned the Abe government that not increasing the tax would make Japan look fiscally irresponsible. The Finance Ministry appears to have lost sense of the timing and fiscal hawks in the LDP party had gone along with it. The deteriorating global economy in the third quarter has hurt Japanese exports, and the lack of wage increases coupled with the increase in the consumption tax to 8% from 5% made Japanese feel poorer, leading to conditions that exacerbated the situation. Recognizing this Yamamoto says Abe has called the snap election in Dec. 2014, after postponing the second increase in the consumption tax to 10% in 2015 which the Noda legislation set to the future date of 2017. He says Abe had to have the guts to take on the Finance Ministry for Abenomics to work....

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Applebaum provides an indepth look at the experiences and events that shaped the thinking of Janet Yellen, new chairwoman of the U.S. Federal Reserve in 2014. He describes the influence of Professor James Tobin of Yale on Yellen's thinking on how the government can influence the level of unemployment. A must-read for insights into the new Fed under Yellen.

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U.S. Defense Secretary, Leon Panetta, held three way talks with Egypt's president, Mohamed Morsi and the head of the military, Hussein Tantawi. Panetta said of Morsi- " I was convinced that President Morsi is his own man." Panetta said Morsi is committed to democratic reforms and representing all Egyptians. President Morsi sent a letter to Israeli president Shimon Peres expressing deep thanks for a Ramadan greeting and expressing hope for new peace talks with the Palestinians. The U.S. preparations for a potential conflict with Iran and the civil war in Syria to oust the Assad regime have given new urgency to reduce tensions in Egypt between the different factions including the military.

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The US president calls Brazilian president Lula Inacio Da Silva, "a good person actually," after meetings at the UN in September 2025. Tariffs imposed on Brazil for cocoa, coffee, meat and fruits have been lifted. Lula asserted Brazil's independent institutions and Brazil as a sovereign country. The tariffs were never popular in Brazil and Lula's popularity in Brazil is now up to to 33% after an earlier decline. He is more energized and at 80 is expected to run again for office. COP30 just completed in Belem, Brazil, and Lula has received favorable response in trying to salvage the climate agenda following the shift away from costly climate change decisions to the cost of living crisis.

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Russian president, Vladimir Putin, tells academics and journalists at an event called the Valdai Discussion Club, he had reservations about expanding the state sector by approving the deal for Rosneft to acquire TNK-BP assets. His motivation for doing this was the endless shareholder conflict between the Russian partners and BP. Putin says he warned British prime minister Tony Blair that a 50%-50% ownership venture would not work as nobody was in control, and described this as so bad that "sometimes they were fighting each other with their bare hands." The injection of private ownership into Rosneft with the 20% stake for BP would provide stability for the company and was the bright side to this. Foreign academics and journalists participate in three days of discussions with Russian academics and journalists in this event. Putin has no new vision for this third term beyond consolidating and protecting the achievements of the last decade. He cited as his achievements- growth of the economy, expansion of the foreign exchange reserves, and the increase in the birthrate....

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Adly Mansour, a judge with the Supreme Constitutional Court in Egypt, is appointed by the military as president of Egypt. He was to take office as Chief Justice before the June 2013 protests in Egypt intervened to delay this. On July 3, 2013 he was sworn in as president before the Supreme Court. Mansour is one of two judges selected by president Morsi. He is a graduate of Cairo University, and studied public affairs and management in Paris before joining the judicial sytem in 1977. His decisions as judge went against both Mubarak and Morsi, showing his independent position as a judge on the Supreme Court. The judiciary is now taking an important role in Egypt similar to the role it has played in Pakistan, another Muslim country adopting democratic forms of governance after decades of coups and military rule since the 1950's. The larger Muslim countries in the Middle East, Turkey, Pakistan, Iran, and Egypt are faced with the challenge of balancing the demands of modernization with tradition, the demands of educated urban population with the more devout Islamist rural population, and creating stable transitions in democratically elected government. Islamists such as president Erdogan in Turkey who described western democratic forms of government as a train to get to a destination have still to take in to account the need to incorporate opposing secular views in governance. In this sense Turkey is not the model for governance as it once appeared for Egypt, Pakistan Iran and other Muslim countries. A new consensus in society needs to develop that respects all aspects of democratic governance including respect for the role of the opposition in a democracy, the role of an independent impartial judiciary, and the role of independent media. This will take time to develop just as it took time to develop in Europe and North America....

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Upamanyu Hazarika gives this story of George Fernandes, a trade union leader in India in the post independence era. He played a role during the post Indira Gandhi Emergency period after 1977 and in the governments that were set up in the two decades that followed. Some of the political parties In India today trace their beginnings to that period. He was Defense Minister in the first term of Atal Bihari Vajpayee as prime minister. A new Penguin Random House biography looks at the life of Mr. Fernandes who comes from a Catholic family in Mangalore, Karnataka. and organized trade unions in Bombay state and in Bihar. Some of the shifts in Bombay from trade unions led by Mr. Fernandes to the Shiv Sena movement led by Bal Thackeray shifted attention to bringing jobs to the local Marathi speaking people in the commercial capital of the British period. Without the capital and technology needed and lacking the knowledge for development of industry on an American scale this kind of leadership failed to deliver on the aspirations of the people in the same way that Mao's experiments with the Great Leap Forward in India and Great Proleterian a Revolution failed to deliver in Beijing, Canton and Shanghai for China.  ...

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In his State of the Union Address president Biden set the tone for the next 2 years of his term, and in preparation for another term to Build Back Better for America. He talked about his efforts to address the needs of America in rebuilding aging infrastructure, restoring its place in manufacturing, chips and science, and addressing climate change with trillions of dollars of investments. No longer would crowding out of government investment happen as it did in the last two decades with neglect of infrastructure, manufacturing, workers and families, and massive misallocation of capital in capital markets. On Jobs, America and Renewal, "on rewarding work, not wealth" "Jobs are coming back. Pride is coming back because of the choices we made in the last two years. This is a blue collar blueprint to rebuild America and make a real difference in your lives." He told Congressman McCarthy-          "I don't want to ruin your reputation but I look forward to working with you." Reminding Republicans-  "The people sent us a clear message. Fighting for the sake of fighting, power for the sake of power, conflict for the sake of conflict gets us nowhere." ...

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Michael Barr was appointed in July 2022 to the Federal Reserve Board of Governors by president Biden, and made the vice chair of financial supervision. As a legal scholar at the University of Michigan with a number of books published on the plight of black Americans after the financial crisis of 2008, he is familiar with the problems created by banks from a laissez fairre approach to regulation.  Barr helped write the rules for the legislation on supervision of banks after the financial crisis of 2008 that hurt worker and families, and minorities particularly in places like Detroit. He is now responsible for correcting the problems created by the Trump legislation that exempted banks under $250 billion from this regulation. Barr will bring this down to $100 billion, the original 2008 legislation has a threshold of $50 billion for banks to be subject to oversight by the central bank and stress testing. In 2018 Barr said about Trump's legislation to limit regulatory oversight in an op-ed in American Banker- "The rules (after 2008) were not meant to apply only to the largest handful of systemically important firms. It is the very antithesis of macro-prudential supervision to focus only on the largest handful of financial firms and to ignore risks elsewhere in the system." ...

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A look at Bhupendra Patel of Ahmedabad Municipal Corporation who is Modi's choice for new chief minister of Gujarat. People who have known him describe their experience in this Indian Express report of the choice. This is the first time someone from the old pols of Ahmedabad is now CM of Gujarat state, Modi's home state. Patel is from the old Dhantura Pol and is familiar with Dariapur, parts of the old walled city of Ahmedabad. Naranpura, Memnagar, different parts of Ahmedabad come up in a discussion of Patel. He has a diploma in civil engineering from Ahmedabad's Government Technical College, where his father was principal, and has worked in setting up building projects in the city for most of his life.  People who have known him describe him as calm and unruffled under pressure. He is seen as hard working and someone who values delivery on time. As head of Ahmedabad Urban Development Authority Patel was known to have his committee review projects to ensure 99% on time delivery, which is important to Modi, in addition to being people conscious and sensitive to issues facing people. This one time firecracker shop vendor in Dariapur  ran a tiffin service for covid patients during the surge in 2020.  ...

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President Biden's style and years of effort leading to the presidency are similar to another Democrat - US president Harry Truman who took the US and the world through the last years of World War II, the Berlin Crisis and rebuilding war torn Europe through the Marshall Plan, and the Korean War. By doing so Truman built the security and economic structure that was the foundation of the Free World. Prsident Biden faces a similar opportunity says Mr. Zoellick in the WSJ. Mr. Biden is already engaged in a similar task as large as that facing Harry Truman as he sets a new direction for America. To build a new supply chain for the US and Europe, to advance the technological and scientific leadership of the US, Europe, Japan, South Korea and India, and to build a new security alliance in Asia and Europe, and strengthen Latin America. Mr. Truman was not deterred by the 1946 midterm elections with Republican majorities and used his experience as a Missouri Congressman to work with Republicans of like minded thinking to strengthen American leadership in the world. Mr. Biden is not deterred by Mr. Trump's challenge and shifts in voter sentiment as he set his focus on what matters most for America in the decades ahead from climate change to economic leadership. ...

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Roger Cohen in the NYT says Macron has missed the public mood in France, the cost of living crisis and the social and economic problems left by the pandemic. FR24 says about two thirds of the French people think this is the wrong time to tackle the pensions issue. The change in the pensions is not an immediate solution as it will be phased in over a period of time stretching to 2030. Many solutions could have been put in place to tackle age discrimination and other problems to make it possible to work productively for longer. Macron needed to address these problems and come up with ways to lessen the burden of the cost of living crisis first before tackling longer term issues. This is a major misstep by Macron, and comes from his lack of experience as one of the youngest persons to become president of France at the age of 39. He was reelected but only with the help of voters who had supported  a socialist candidate Mr. Melenchon. Macron said after that election that he would listen carefully to the voting public that had elected him, even with reservations after the yellow vest protests about his lack of sensitivity for people struggling to make a living. ...

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Kevin Roose explains the unique structure of Open AI which has 4 board members and is structured as a nonprofit with the overriding goal of safety and making AI beneficial to humanity. Ilya Sutskeyer is chief scientist and member of the board. He says Altman's ouster was necessary to protect OpenAI's mission of making Artificial Intelligence beneficial to humanity. Mr. Altman was asked to join a video meeting of the board on Friday 17th November and was immediately fired. Open AI started in 2015 as a nonprofit and in 2019 setup a capped profit subsidiary in which investors returns are capped in relation to the investment. It keeps the nonprofit in charge and able to fire the CEO of the profit subsidiary and keeps the mission as overarching for both subsidiaries. There are three other members who hold no shares in the company and who are bound to a fiduciary duty to "create safe AI that is broadly beneficial to humanity." Tasha McCauley and Helen Toner are the two other members who are members of the Effective Altruism movement who have raised concerns that AI could lead to the extinction of humanity. Adfam D'Angelo is the other member, he is CEO of Quora a question and answer site. ...

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At Lyrarc we pointed out how US president Harry Truman had to persuade the US Congress to get aid to Greece and Turkey bills passed to prevent an imminent Communist takeover with Soviet bloc aid in 1948. Paul Krugman points out that this happened before when FDR had to persuade the US Congress to pass bills for Lend Lease agreement aid to Europe in 1942. Much of that aid was in food and other non military aid because the US arms manufacturing was beginning to ramp up.  Krugman also corrects the former president's statements regarding Ukraine aid that the European have done less. Counting all assistance to Ukraine he says the EU has done more than the US. It is because the arms production in the EU has to be ramped up and the US has arms production factories better prepared in military aid the US has done more in military aid, not overall or in other aid. He also points out that $13 billion FDR got from Congress for Europe in 1942 was 10% of US GDP, whereas Ukraine aid is only one fourth of one percent of US GDP, and much of it going as Mr. Biden pointed out, going into investment in American factories and jobs to supply Ukraine. ...

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Another clear warning from Britain under Boris Johnson the failures from that time could still affect the US if it copies Johnson. Krugman looks at Project 2025 that has received the backing of the former president. He points to one aspect of this blueprint for a Trump second term, how civil service would be overhauled to remove civil servants not meeting the requirements put forth by the new administration. He says this takes America backwards. Till 1883 when president James Garfield set up an independent civil service in the US people employed by the government were routinely chosen from the winning party leading to flaws and much instability, weak administration. In Britain this type of effort of Project 2025 was tried under Boris Johnson by using an adviser who wanted to blow up parts of the British civil service for not cooperating. That experiment failed badly and the adviser was fired with much recrimination, Johnson being discredited, and administrative failures. Project 2025 would shut down the Education Ministry and the Homeland Security Ministry, for even more upheaval of the civil service. Not to mention the proposal to reverse the founding of the central bank the Federal Reserve in 1909 under Woodrow Wilson that stabilized the economy after banking panics. These are clear dangers. ...

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King Charles thanked the police and citizens for their role in the riots saying-  he “shared how he had been greatly encouraged by the many examples of community spirit that had countered the aggression and criminality from a few with the compassion and resilience of the many”. The UK riots showed the inadequacy of the Online Safety Act in regulating social media. This is what the public thinks and what the prime minister had to say about this-   YouGov polling published on Friday suggested that 66% of people thought social media companies should be held responsible for posts inciting criminal behaviour, and 70% believed they were not regulated strongly enough. In YouGov poll this week, 71% say they think social media companies did a bad job tackling misinformation during the riots. For social media, Starmer said: “The first thing I’d say is, this is not a law-free zone. And I think that’s clear from the prosecutions and sentencing. Today we’re due sentencing for online behaviour. “That’s a reminder to everyone that whether you’re directly involved or whether you’re remotely involved, you’re culpable, and you will be put before the courts if you’ve broken the law.” ...

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Retired General Keith Kellogg was in National Security roles in the DJT first term. He is the new DJT envoy to Ukraine and Russia with the goal of negotiating a settlement between Russia and Ukraine. He was chief of staff of the National Security Council in DJT's first term. And also the National Security Advser to vice President Mike Pence. The 80 year old veteran co-authored a paper for America First think tank which says- "The United States would continue to arm Ukraine and strengthen its defenses to ensure Russia will make no further advances and will not attack again after a cease-fire or peace agreement."  "Future American military aid, however, will require Ukraine to participate in peace talks with Russia."  This comes as Zelensky's popularity in Ukraine has dipped to 16% and Ukraine's people do not want him to run again for president. This is intended to draw Ukraine into peace talks as prolonging the war would lead to enormous losses for Ukraine's cities and the people of Ukraine, Kellogg told the Voice of America at the Republican Convention in 2024, and peace talks would end the war with Russia. ...

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Britain has fallen way behind under Conservatives Tories misrule. On just about all indicators of the economy the US is ahead of Britain, on cost of living, on investment in infrastructure, on chips and science, on unemployment and on economic growth. The US economic growth was 2% compared to 0.5% for Britain.  Britain under the Tories over the last ten years lost so much ground fighting for Brexit and hurting it's economy. The Tory party is itself torn apart again today by Farage's Reform party, much of it from poor leadership- Cameron, Boris Johnson, Sunak. The result today is that Labour's Starmer says he has a 22 billion pound gap in the Budget that the Tories Conservatives have left him, a hole he says that will lead to Labour cutting winter fuel payment for pensioners this winter.  The US with president Biden is so far ahead of Britain with $1 trillion in investments taking place under the Inflation Reduction Act and $53 billion under the CHIPS and Science Act. Harris plans to build 3 million homes and offer $100 billion to small business to spur growth. There is just no comparison and owes much to president Biden and Harris, and to senior Republicans who supported the administration on the economy. ...

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A Lebanese shopkeeper's son who is a lawyer, did his Masters degree in Economics at the University of Sao Paulo. In this interview he is shown as a tucano, a member of the white, college educated, wealthy and male group in Brazil, also the name of the centre right Social Democracy party of Cardozo since the 1994 elections. PT's Lula da Silva elected as president in 2002 turned to Haddad to run the Education ministry in 2005. Since then Haddad has mediated between worker's factions and the moderate elements in the PT Party of Trabajadores or Workers Party, the party Lula founded with others in 1980 during the redemocratization period. During the period when Lula was in prison in 2018- after the election in which Haddad lost 45% to 55% to a representative of the military and centre far right parties Captain Jair Bolsanaro- Haddad visited Lula in prison.  Haddad is now Finance Minister in Brazil with inflation at 4.5%, unemployment at 7.5%, and GDP growth of 1.5% following 3% growth in GDP in 2023. Haddad says in this interview that he is seen as austerica within the PT because of his economic policies. Popularity of PT has dropped with Lula's approval at a low of 28 percent in June 2025. ...