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As Neil Irwin points out in the NYT the effects of the steel tariffs announced by president Trump are negligible on the U.S. economy- the impact of $30 billion in steel imports and $17 billion imports of aluminium on a $20 trillion economy. As Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross pointed out in a television interview it is the impact of a fraction of a penny on a food can, and tenths of one percent in the price of a new car.  What markets when settling down look at is the facts from how situations were handled from tariffs on solar panels to action on NAFTA. Twitter comments of Trump have not reflected actual policy as it was carried out as Neil Irwin points out. On tariffs for solar panels this has fitted in with action from preceding administrations says Irwin and also fits in with Trump administration policy to send a message when lower prices subsidized by foreign governments hurt U.S. producers. On NAFTA Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross and other key economic advisers around Trump have acted along with the calls from prime minister Trudeau and contacts with Economics minister Videgaray of Mexico, to a policy of making some changes to NAFTA, very different from the calls for rejecting NAFTA made earlier by president Trump.   ...

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The Trump administration is preparing direct aid to Americans and American industries hurt by the coronavirus epidemic. Each check will be based on family size and income, according to a Treasury Department memo seen by WSJ. The direct payments in two rounds will be on April 6 and May 18. This is part of a $1 trillion stimulus program. $50 billion lending facility is being setup for the airlines. Another $150 billion goes to distressed sectors in the economy. $300 billion will go to a small business interruption loan program, which will go to temporarily cover payroll costs for employees. The idea is to put a safety net and support workers who will need help while they are not working. The measures include two weeks of paid emergency leave for a large number of people. Money also goes to additional Medicaid funding, more money for food stamps, and for unemployment insurance program. Congress has passed the bill and president Trump is expected to sign it into law. Other bills will follow in Congress. A third economic package will cover additional needs of agencies of government, with $11.5 billion for Department of Health and Human Services, and Departments of Defense, Veterans Affairs, Homeland Security. All this is being done in Congress and by the Trump administration at top speed. ...

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Trump's doctor's letter was written by Dr. Bornstein. His father was Trump's doctor for many years. The letter Dr Bornstein says was written with language that is normally used by Trump, and not the kind of letter he is used to writing. Dr. Bornstein says he was rushed. The Trump limousine was waiting outside and he had 5 minutes to write the letter certifying to Trump's good health to be president of the U.S. Experts say the most noticeable thing about the letter is the hyperbole. They, including Sanjay Gupta, raise questions about the letter's hyperbole, that does not show the serious minded attitude and language that this kind of letter requires such as the words "astonishingly excellent." 

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For US automakers each component of the savings above may cover all or more of the $2.5 billion in tariffs some of which may be returned in rebate form to the automakers over 4 years. For example GM CFO is cited as as saying the shift in EV's alone could reduce losses by $2 billion in 2025. That more than makes up for GM's  $1.1 billion losses from tariffs shown in this WSJ report. It is more accurate to say foreign automakers in the US pay $9 billion in tariffs if they don't raise prices, Toyota alone will take on $3 billion in tariffs. And American makers Ford, GM, Chrysler Stellantis pay $2.5 billion of which some of it will be returned to the automakers inthe form of favorable policies to increase market share of US automakers with the 15% on imported cars and savings from not having to make electric vehicles in volumes that don't sell without the charging infrastructure, and savings from not having to invest on rapid conversion away from gas powered vehicles.    ...

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The Senate Big Beautiful Bill $6000 per person deduction makes Social Security tax free for 88% of Americans over 65 years. This is close as one can get to making Social Security benefits tax free for people over 65 years. It is a move that is seen favorably by social security recipients. Protecting the elderly on fixed incomes when the cost of living went up 12% in just 1 year in 2022 is an essential step for any administration that cares for the daily lives of the American people. In this sense the DJT administration has made a bold move in three key areas no taxes on social security benefits, no taxes on tips which address employment in hospitality/restaurants, and doubling the child care benefit for mothers, tackling key population sectors. To pay for this and keep the deficits down the dollar strong, one other action was taken- to increase investment in the economy and in manufacturing by allowing expensing of investment 100%. Fed chairman Powell repeatedly states he is very optimistic about this action generating the kind of investment boom American needs to restore good standards of living.   ...

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GDP growth in the eurozone was 0.3% for the 4th quarter 2014. For 2014 eurozone GDP growth was 1.4%, according to Eurostat. Growth in GDP for Germany was 0.7% for the 4th quarter and 2.8% for 2014. Retail sales in December were particularly good in Spain and Germany, with sales up 2.8% for the eurozone over the prior year. Italy's GDP growth was stagnant and France's was 0.1% for the 4th quarter, showing that Germany and Spain are leading the way for eurozone recovery.

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The U.S. House of Representatives voted 332 to 94 to approve a budget deal for 2 years negotiated by Rep. Paul Ryan (Republican) and Senator Pat Murray (Democrat). This ends a chapter of 3 years of crisis prone budgeting negotiations and a brief government shutdown from failure to negotiate a deal between the two political parties. Ryan, the vice presidential candidate in the 2012 elections has credibility with all parts of the Republican Party which helped get the deal passed overwhelmingly. On the floor of the House Ryan said about the deal- "This is good government, it's also divided government. And under divided government, we need to take steps in the right direction." Ryan was able to win 169 Republican votes, with 62 against. House Speaker Boehner (Republican) was critical of Tea Party supporters and groups such as Heritage Action, Club for Growth, FreedomWorks and Senate Conservatives Fund opposing the Ryan deal, because he said these groups were pushing the Republican party into places where it did not want to be through "misleading" information and had "lost credibility."...

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How big pickup sales are stumbling for GM, Ford and Chrysler. CONTENT LINKS 1. SHIFT IN BUYING HABITS OF "PERSONAL USE" TRUCK BUYERS IMPACTS GM FORD AND CHRYSLER. J.D. Powers research shows that only 64% of such pickup owners are buying pickups again, down from 77% 3 years ago.

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Vehicle sales in the U.S. market went up by 18% in April 2011. There was a significant shift fuel efficient vehicles and small cars with gasoline running at over $4 per gallon. Sales are running at an annual rate of over 13 million vehicles for the February-April 2011 period. Helping sustain sales momentum is the aging of the U.S. vehicle fleet- average for vehicles in the U.S. is above 10 years according to G.M. vice president, Don Johnson. GM sales were up 27% in April 2011 over the prior year- with only a 2% increase for pickup trucks and a 50% increase in sales for passenger cars. There was strong demand for the Chevy Cruze compact and smaller fuel efficient sport utility vehicles. Ford had a 16% increase in sales, with strong demand for the new Fiesta, Focus small cars and the new lighter version of the Explorer SUV. Ford's Ken Czubay, head of sales and marketing, says dealers are selling the Focus right off the convoy truck, which gives some indication of the shift in consumer preferences. Chrysler vehicle sales increased 23%, with car sales up 41% in April over the prior year. Some indication of the shift can be seen in the incentives dollars- the largest rebates of $3200 were given for large trucks, according to Edmunds.com. At the same time overall dollars per vehicle for incentives dropped from $2600 in April 2010 to $2100 in April 2011. Toyota sales increased by only 1% because of shortages as a result of the earthquake, especially for the smaller cars like the Corollas and the Prius....

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The campaign in German schools "Smart ohne phone" or "Smart without a phone"  for school children in 2025. One student at Dalton High School in Alsdorf, North Rhine Westphalia, Klara Ptak, is cited in this report by  Oliver Pieper in DW.com. Klara 17 years old says- "A total of 51 phones were seized — that's a fairly significant number considering we have 700 students. And you can really see a difference, especially in the younger kids. They used to stand around in a circle staring at their screens, and now they are playing football, badminton, or board games together. It's a dramatic shift." A survey by the Körber Foundation, and pollster Forsa, says that parents of children ages 12 to 18 complain that their children's time spent on social media is out of control and is their leading source of stress. The German National Academy of Sciences Leopoldina is for banning phones upto tenth grade, it wants to keep children under 13 away from the internet for social media completely. It is interesting to note that the younger student are fine with it and adapted quickly seeing the benefits. This shows that a new generation of student can be trained for a different lifestyle. Today in the Washington Post Linda McMahon and RFK Jr. team up on an article saying just this that time spent on screens lifestyles along with nutrition and food fail school children badly, reminding people about the saying in Latin since the 2nd Century by poet Juvenal -"a healthy mind in a healthy body." ( Latin -"mens sana in corpore sano").   ...

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Side work earns book royalties of $2 million for Barrett on "Listening to the Law" and Ketanji Jackson $3 million Sotomayor and Gorsuch also have books and royalty advances. This provides the public with a closer view of the Justices on the highest Court in the Nation. It also means Justices live a sheltered life away from the concerns of ordinary Americans about cost of living, cost of health care and pharmaceuticals, cost of childcare, cost of education, cost of fentanyl and other drug trafficking to American families and mothers. During the Depression only three Justices the most prominent of whom were Harlan Stone of New Hampshire and Wendell Holmes of Massachusetts supported New Deal legislation to provide government help with other Justices rejecting New Deal legislation right in the middle of the Great Depression when people were literally without food and shelter, without jobs and in despair. Today there is a permanent exhibition of Harlan Stone in the US Supreme Court for the longest service on the Court. It took till 1940 for FDR to appoint new Justices to get the Court to support the New Deal. Today Justice Barrett is a lone voice among Conservatives willing to listen to all opinions on both sides along with but more than Justice Roberts. This is heartening to both sides. Barrett like Justice Sandra O'Connor before her puts great importance on the Constitution's intent and wording, its pages are in her book. O'Connor from a rural ranch in Arizona carried the Constitution with her at all times and had her own books- the Lazy B about growing up on a ranch on the Arizona- New Mexico border in the middle of big country, big sky, so wide an expanse that she writes about it in her preface to her next book The Majesty of the Law citing Wallace Stegner. ...

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Americans in retirement are able to rebuild their savings with interest on money market funds of over 5%. This is the result of 5% percentage points of consecutive rate increases by Jay Powell's Fed. In addition about $121 billion went to savers as they faced $151 billion in higher interest rate costs on mortgages and loans. The result with a strong labor market and lower inflation of about 3% is an economy that is resilient and can provide the 5 or 7 plus  years of growth needed for America to meet the challenges it faces with its allies in the EU, Asia and Latin America, Africa- to tackle climate change, to rebuild America's crumbling infrastructure, to invest in education and healthcare, to improve worker incomes, and build its manufacturing at home into a strong thriving sector for good paying worker incomes.

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The US added 167,000 jobs in July 2023 from a month earlier, according to the Labor Department, less than 200,000 anticipated. Higher population numbers and higher labor force participation rates offset the increasing  number of retired people in the US. More people added to the population from immigration and more younger people participating in prime age under 54. This means the US is where it would like to be with the Fed not having to increase rates that much in coming months, says Justin Lahart of WSJ. The Labor Department increased its estimates of population by 867,000, and the labour force participation for prime age is up to 84%. These are good signals for the US economy, that there is room for more jobs growth and income growth with an unemployment rate at 3.5%, and less need for increasing interest rates by the Fed.

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Britain heads into a general election July 4 with a deeply dissatisfied electorate. Labour is expected to get a majority after 15 years of failed rule by the conservative party with austerity policies, failure to invest in Britain and failure to improve the lives of working people. Astonishing as it may sound 58% of the British public now want to see Britain rejoin the European Union. Much of the support in blue collar working class communities in England for the Conservatives has faded and these voters have returned to support Labor. There is also a change in the mood in Scotland favoring Labor over Scottish Nationalist party. Unlike the US Britain under Tories has failed to invest in Britain's future in renewable energy, in climate change action and in infrastructure. Standard of living and support for the health system is declining.

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Scientists at the University of California, San Francisco say that manufacturers of PFAS forever chemicals are using a strategy to discredit good research that detail risks from carcinogens. They says that these manufacturers suppress unfavorable research and distort public discourse. Former EPA researcher Dourson is shown here with a company that gets half its funding from chemical companies. He pushes for allowing many times the permissible level of carcinogens set by the EPA, and supports use of forever chemicals, in this report in the WSJ. President Trump appointed him head of the chemcial safety unit at EPA, but Doursen withdrew when there was bipartisan criticism of ties to industry. Critics say he uses biased science that looks at cherry picked data. His company is called Toxicology Excellence for Risk Assessment, which he founded after taking a buyout of $25,000 from EPA, according to WSJ.

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As the US central bank, the Fed, considers cutting high interest rates that affect housing costs and mortgages this WSJ report looks at the consumer debt in September 2024. It says consumer debt is at $17 trillion in 2024. This is high except that when inflation adjusted it is only 3% above the consumer debt in 2019, the peak happened in 2008 before the banking induced financial crisis. Then there is the question of what the debt composition is. Here overall debt has grown by 4% yet credit card debt is up 11%, not a good sign when the interest rates charged by banks is 12%, by cards 22%. Households are paying off credit card debt by borrowing from sources with lower interest costs.

This is more evidence why many households are hurting as debt servicing remains as and additional cost of living issue for Americans.

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The WSJ offers this view on the UAW strike by 13,000 of 150,000 workers at GM, Ford, and Stellantis factories. No one gains from the strike, workers say are behind by 19% lower wages today than in 2008 after making concessions to the carmakers. They just want fair wages, and president Biden is backing the UAW union. Is Tesla and non union labor in the south going to put GM out of EV's? Unlikely, labor is a small part of EV cost, Tesla is too dependent on one leader with much of its glow reduced after the Twitter acquisition, whereas workers and management at GM at all levels are more resilient today than at any time in GM's history. President Biden also brings a tempering influence on both sides with the national interest uppermost in building a strong EV industry.

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Friedman made a similiar point before the presidential election in the US about Obama's inexperience and using the Afghan war to burnish his credentials. See the link to Friedman. Here Congressman Wilson is shown as using Tip O'Neill's and Democrats opposition to the Reagan support for the contras in Nicaragua as the good fight and the use of the support of the "good" war against the soviets in Afghanistan to ward off accusations from Republican right of weakness against the Soviet Union's expansion.

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The US added 103,000 jobs on net in December 2010, acccording to the Labor Department. The jobs were mainly added in leisure and hospitality (especially the food services and drinking places subsector ) and in health care. Payrolls for other industries show no growth. A different government survey, which is based on how many people are without jobs but are actively looking for work, fell to 9.4% in December 2010 from 9.8% in November. But part of the reason for this is that many people stopped looking for jobs.

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With no clear strategy to pursue vaccines or generics like its competitors, and no promising new drugs in the pipeline, Astra Zeneca faces an uncertain future. Acquisitions are costly with a high premium in 2012. Nestle paid about 20 times earnings before interest, depreciation and taxes for Pfizer's baby food nutrition business. Astra Zeneca's first quarter earnings in 2012 declined by 44%. Government price reductions and competition from generics led to first quarter 2012 sales decline by 11%. New management takes over in June from the current CEO.

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Prices in the eurozone region increased by 0.3% in May from the year earlier, according to Eurostat. Prices in the eurozone were negative in December 2014, and minus 0.6% in Jan. 2015, flat for April 2015. Energy costs declined by 5% from the month year earlier. Excluding energy and food prices, the prices increased by 0.9% from the month year earlier. Because of large scale quantitative easing by the ECB the GDP increased by 1.6% for the 1st quarter of 2015 for the eurozone, just when the U.S. economy suffered a contraction.

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This article gets a 2 red flags for what the report tells one about the German retailer Metro AG has done in India to ensure the proper storage and transport of food supplies from its source to the retail shelf. Its quite an effort and remarkably interesting effort by Metro in a new environment. Does Metro have experience like this before in other countries it operates. Its like making a sea change in the way things were done in a developing country to how its done in Europe.

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The new Secretary of the Navy is money manager John Phelan. Is he a good choice for the Navy with its many challenges for which Phelan lacks experience, asks this report in WSJ. The US is attempting to ramp up its Navy in 2025.

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This personal portraiture of Sarkozy reflects Sarkozy as a man, but it says little about some changes he brought, which could be regarded as his singular achievements. One is his courage in discontinuing old colonial policy in Africa and the Middle East. Sarkozy took the initiative in Libya and Tunisia, and Libya owes much to Sarkozy. Sarkozy also worked to build closer European ties, something he came under much criticism, such as his ties to chancellor Merkel. Pictures of Sarkozy and Merkel on the beach in Deauville, France, come to mind. This is a path Hollande is also likely to take, except that he would bring to bear the French viewpoint, which is a good thing. It would still benefit from the idea that Sarkozy gave the German viewpoint a good hearing before it was fairly rejected in France on its merits and economic good sense.