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The tensions that exist in Australian society, as a result of the large Chinese investments and imports of infrastructure building commodities such as iron ore, natural gas and other commodities. Australia's Pilbara region in the northwestern part of the country, has become one huge quarry for China, as an estimated 1 million tons of iron ore raw material is loaded onto 2 story high trucks each day- with automated driverless trucks system being implemented- and shipped by 2 mile long trains to waiting ships on the coast. Australians remember this done on a smaller scale in the 1980's by Japan. At the time Japan brought in Japanese workers. The same is true today but on a bigger scale, with China bringing in workers with lower pay. The concern now is what it was then, as one local leader put it- are we going to have towns with mines or mines with towns, he asked. The mining companies are looking at it purely as a commercial venture, and not investing in the towns. The towns now fear they will find the boom times gone someday and nothing tangible to show for it, no schools, hospitals and no infrastructure. And because the mining project companies fly people in and out, the 8000 aboriginal people in Pilbara- the original people of this land- see little of the mining expansion's benefits. Wandoan, a small place with 300 homes in the outback in Queensland, in eastern Australia, is an example of the gut wrenching change taking place in the mining areas. The lives of the people from the local pharmacy, the local supermarket, and the local ranchers, depend on the mining decisions made in China. This area was part of a planned, on again off again, $6 billion coal mine -part of a A$150 billion complex of natural gas and coal projects for exports to Asia in Queensland- and involved Xstrata buying 70,000 acres of the best grazing land for 7 coal mines. With the locals selling off, the mining uncertain, the supermarket closing, the whole town has the feeling of being up in the air, and fading out someday. Australian public sentiment recognizes this feeling, and at the same time is ambivalent about the impact. Polls conducted by the Lowy Institute for International Policy, show 73% of Australians feel Chinese economic growth has a positive impact, and at the same time 57% feel that there is now excessive Chinese investment, and 46% feel China will be a military threat in 20 years. Australians remember the same feeling about Japan's investments in raw material sources in the eighties. In 1988, polls then showed 70% of Australians saying there was too much Japanese investment, even though they also recognized that Australia had benefitted. The difference now is that there are also fears of China's influence, and foreign investment guidelines limit investments in Australian mining companies to below 50%. China's investment in Australia's natural resources comes in several ways: in the year upto July 2009 A$42 billion in export demand, A$3 billion in direct investment in Australian companies, and about A$5 billion in project financing. Iron ore sales to China amount to A$22 billion each year, and about one fourth of Australia's exports went to China, growing at a rate of 31% in 2009. According to the chief economist of Austrade, the government trade organization, Australia benefits from the economic relationship with China- this adds A$3,400 per year to every Australian household. Efforts to use some of the profits made by mining corporations for infrastructure and other public purposes, by increasing the mining tax have failed; as the mining industry launched a campaign against the government of Kevin Rudd, who was removed from office by his party. In the recent national elections, the ruling Labor party lost its majority, after losses in the resource rich states of Western Australia and Queensland. In the meantime the Australian currency has become the currency used by currency speculators who cannot use the yuan to make a bet on the currency- as the yuan is pegged to the dollar- and instead use the Australian dollar as a proxy. This makes it volatile, with the Australian dollar losing 10% of its value in a single day, when pessimism increased about China's growth forecasts. It also shows how much of the good story of employment and gdp growth in Australia is tied to the story in China, and the extent of the negative impact a reversal in this area can mean for Australians; especially now that the bad debt in the post-2008 explosion of bank lending poses risks to China's banknig system. ...

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This editorial in the WSJ says the reinterpretation of Article 9 of the Japanese Constitution to allow collective self-defense in no way brings Japan back to its militarist past. It reminds readers that Prime minister Abe faces the Japanese public's skepticism as a majority of Japanese in polls show they do not favor the collective self defense interpretation. The New Komeito party in the coalition government also restricted the interpretation. South Korea's reservations have also to be considered by Japan. The revised interpretation lets Japan fill some needed changes in its role in the new situation where China has taken a more assertive stance on territorial issues in Asian waters near Vietnam, the Philippines, Japan and South Korea. In this manner the restricted interpretations lets Japan fulfill a role necessary for the U.S. to continue its presence and strength in the Pacific and Asian waters needed to maintain peace in the region.

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Immigration and drug flows became an explosive issue in the US by 2016, yet between 2016-2024 Venezuelan people outflows added up to 7.1 million migrants including about 1 million to the US, as Venezuela collapsed and Russia intervened to keep the regime.   None of this could have happened with major powers US Russian cooperation. The Monroe Doctrine of president Monroe, 1824, warned European powers to not restore colonial influence in the Americas. By 2024 Syria sent 14 million of its population to Europe, and Venezuela sent 7.7 million migrants to Colombia, Brazil, and the US, as their economies and democratic institutions collapsed. Missing was working cooperation with another military power Russia. Clinton, Bush, Obama, Western financial interests, failed to grasp the importance of US Russia cooperation and mutual respect. Obama denigrated Russia as insignificant because of its GDP.   Russia intervened in failing states but gained little, straining the good relations mutual respect from earlier periods of its history and interactions with the US.  DJT tariff on all importers of Venezuelan oil affect China to which Venezuela sent 55% of its oil exports over half a million barrels a day. It also affects India and other importers. These importers say experts, will shift to Russian crude preferring it to heavy oil from Venezuela. This is a sore point for Americans affected by violent crime from Venezuelan gang members reflected in recent election results. This also affects the sense of safety in American neighborhoods and in towns across America. The Linken Riley Act was passed in the US Congress as action on this issue. People in China, India, and in Europe, and some even in Silicon Valley in the US fail to grasp the way this has affected communities across the US when after decades of deindustrialization and shipping jobs overseas by American business, these communities are affected by a sense of lack of safety in their neighborhoods. There is also a failure to grasp the harm done by migration of 7.7 million people from Venezuela, almost a fourth of the country's population, because of mismanagement of the economy and crippling inflation, and the failure of democratic institutions to function effectively. A failure to grasp the extent of the economic and human disaster in Venezuela. DJT says- "Venezuela has been very hostile to the US and the Freedoms which we espouse...Venezuela has "purposefully and deceitfully sent to the United States, undercover, tens of thousands of high level, and other, criminals".    ...

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Joe Parkinson of the WSJ gives a in-depth account of the emergence of Recep Tayyip Erdogan in Turkey's politics, with contributions by Emre Peker, Ayla Albayrak, Yeliz Candemir. Erdogan grew up in a poor neighborhood of Istanbul, and became the head of a local youth branch of the Islamist National Salvation Party in 1976 after an adolescent period steeped in mosque culture and Islamic ideas. In 1994 he is elected Mayor of Istanbul amid voter discontent with corruption and problems with infrastructure and public services. He served for four years making improvements. After reciting a poem publicly that said "the mosques are our barracks, domes our helmets, minarets our bayonets and faithful our soldiers," he is jailed for 4 months by a military backed secular government in 1999. During this period Erdogan, described by friends from his youth as having a unique ability to adapt to difficult situations, makes a transformation. He moves to the centre, coming out in favor of stronger ties to the EU, and works hard to attract support from the secular and nationalist voters to add to his conservative religious base. In 2003 he is elected prime minister as head of the Justice and Development Party. This begins a period of ten years in which Turkey sees remarkable period of economic growth during which Turkey's GNP nearly quadruples from a little over $200 billion in 2002 to $794.5 billion in 2012, according to the IMF. It may be partly coincidence and partly good management of the economy under Erdogan. Turkey's previous banking and currency crises before 2003 created a better understanding and discipline for managing the economy. Emerging markets such as Brazil, India, China, Russia, Indonesia, and other parts of Asia and Latin America were able to achieve high rates of growth during this 10 year period. Competitiveness in Brazil and Turkey has not improved significantly in this period according to experts, and large capital inflows into Turkey partly supported the credit boom in Turkey. And just as growth is slowing significantly in all emerging markets, Turkey under Erdogan faces a new test. Especially now that Erdogan is seen as autocratic in his effort to suppress protests to build an Ottoman era army barracks in Taksim Square, Istanbul. The fears of secularists in Turkey are that this is the Erdogan of the period in 1999, after serving as Mayor of Istanbul. Just as Turks turned away from the overreaching actions of the military, the public sentiment may be shifting beyond the overreaching actions of the religious parties in Turkish politics. The protests in Brazil against the Rouseff administration after the popularity of the Lula administration, show that slowing economic growth and missteps by the elected government can alienate younger voters. The parties still retain a majority but face an uncertain future in which lower economic growth and missteps lead to a search for alternatives. At the same time Turkey's efforts for accession to the EU are beng put on hold as Germany opposes the actions to suppress protests of the Justice Party in Turkey. ...

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Russians vote in 2021 parliamentary elections. With 30% of votes cast the United Russia party of Mr. Putin wins 45% of votes cast, followed by the Communist party of the Russian Federation with 22%, and the Liberal Democratic party getting 8%. Russia has mixed voting system with half the seats directly elected from party lists, and the other half assigned to individual candidates. United Russia had 334 seats out of total 450 seats in the outgoing parliament. Putin will need over 300 seats in the new parliament to get the two thirds majority to enact changes to the constitution. Putin needs this to extend his current term which ends in 2024.  Putin draws most of his support from the older part of the population that has seen the hardships imposed following the collapse of Communism around 1990. This led to collapse of the ruble currency, increase in poverty, an effort by oligarchs to capture state enterprises, and a chaotic period for law and order. Shockingly during that period even life spans of Russians declined as reported in the WSJ. Liberals who supported the shift to democracy had not anticipated all the ill effects of introducing capitalist free market systems in such a sudden and free fall way. Such sudden shifts to free markets are now better understood and seen as the wrong way, as western capital markets fail without inbuilt protections, safety net for workers and retired people, and are subject to serious distortions if no vigilant authority exists. This is in reality not a free market but a market captured by the few, in the interests of the few. Once this was clear retired people, pensioners, military, law enforcement, and liberals realizing what had happened shifted support to United Russia founded by Mr. Putin. Mr. Putin faces the typical situation faced by incumbents over long periods where there is a sense of the need for change. Yet the pandemic and other economic crises that could happen in the event of mismanaged economy are never really too distant for countries such as Russia, China, India that are developed but yet have not the strong industrial base of US, Germany, France. Such economic crises including the ruble currency and Russian energy companies were better managed under Putin than under the chaotic period following the collapse of communism and the introduction of so called "free markets" that were anything but. During the recentfree fall in oil prices Putin was able to manage a transition period with the help of president Trump who negotiated a price for oil with the Saudis to protect US shale oil workers and companies, as well as Russian workers and oil companies. As a result Russians particularly young people look for alternative places to vote for opposition parties such as Liberals, Communist party, and other parties. But the majority of Russians including those working for state energy and other state companies tend to stay with Putin's choices for state, regional and federal administration and for parliament. Nationalist spirit also provides additional support as Putin has restored Russia's status as one of the important nations in the world. Some missteps such as interference in US elections have led to a loss of some of this international influence, yet even president Biden understands the situation in Russia and is willing to work with Putin with new rules of conduct Under the Russian system about 70% of the laws are not made by parliament but are done by the government and the administration of the president and then go through parliament. In addition to parliamentary vote there are 6 governor races and three races for heads of regional republics. ...

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The Obama administration's budget for 2016 includes $19 billion for cybersecurity, a 35% increase.

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Over 50% of respondents in the 2012 Gallup poll view Japan as the U.S.'s most important partner in Asia, compared to 39% for China. The shift in how Americans view China is pronounced in the last 3 years. In 2010 the two countries were tied 44%-44%. In 2011 China was 39% to Japan's 31%. In 2011 India, S. Korea and Australia were added to the poll as partners. Among "opinion leaders" such as business executives, government officials, academics and journalists, China gets 54% to Japan's 40%. The poll is conducted by Gallup for the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Japan since the 1960's. The analysis shows that respondents picked China for economic reasons not for political reasons. A survey of the general population shows 84% view Japan as a dependable ally, up 2% froom 2011, with similiar trend for opinion leaders.

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The sixth round of the annual Strategic and Economic Dialogue in Beijing, China, July 9, 2014, between the U.S. and China at the Diaoyutai State Guest House. Jack Lew of Treasury, and John Kerry of the State Department meet their Chinese counterparts and other officials to promote peaceful cooperation. The background for the meeting of increasing tension in the Pacific region between China and its neighbors, the Philippines,Vietnam, and Japan, is acknowledged by president Jinping- "Confrontation between China and the United States would definitely spell disaster for the two countries and for the wider world... The immense sea allows fish to leap at liberty, the vast sky lets birds fly freely. The broad Pacific Ocean has ample space to accomodate our two great nations."

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In an effort to address global uncertainty, Australia's Treasurer, Wayne Swan, presented a budget designed to move to a surplus of A$1.5 billion from a deficit of A$44.4 billion for fiscal year ending June 30, with large cuts in defense spending. Savings and cuts amount to A$33.6 billion. The trade deficit is widening, and Australia faces uncertainty about the prospects of the mining boom continuing to sustain economic growth with the slowdown in China. The budget plan is based on assumptions of 3.25% growth in the next fiscal year, unemployment at 5.5% slightly above the 5.2% today. The growth in GDP for the last quarter of the prior fiscal year slowed to 2.3%. Australia's widening trade deficit for the first quarter 2012, was A$3.2 billion. New taxes on mining profits will generate A$6.5 billion in 2 years, and taxes on carbon pollution A$7.4 billion. With elections set for 2013, the government plans to continue payments supporting low and middle income families.

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In response to bellicose speeches by Republican presidential candidates Mitt Romney and Rick Santorum at the American Israel Public Affairs Committee conference on March 6, 2012, President Obama stated at a press conference: "This is not a game..The one thing we have not done is we have not launched a war.. If some of these folks think we should launch a war, let them say so, and explain to the American people." The U.S. president, advisors and intelligence officials believe that Iran has yet to acquire a nuclear weapon, that there is time for sanctions to work and make the Iranian government give up any weapons programs it is working on. Their view as stated by the U.S. President is that this time cannot be measured in two days or two months. Recent elections in Iran show divisions in the government between the Ayatollah Khamanei and premier Ahmadinejad, with the elections favoring candidates supporting Khamanei. There is also the dynamic of changing relations in the Middle East- between Iran and other countries such as Iraq, Turkey, Saudi Arabia, India- which have strong ties to the U.S., and Iran's relations with China and other countries which have close economic ties to the U.S. In addition in a country with a demographic skewed heavily towards younger people and a third of the people under 15, the democracy protests in 2011 about a flawed election in 2009 are supported largely by university and college students. That election may actually have been stolen by Ahmadinejad from Mr. Moussavi, who in an election eve television debate accused Ahmadinejad of "adventurism, illusionism, exhibitionism, extremism, and superficiality," (Nazila Fathi, NYT 6/4/2009). These factors are likely to be behind the Obama administration's sense of a "window of opportunity," to use Mr. Obama's words. Recent polls by the University of Maryland's Prof. Telhami show only 19% of Israelis favored a military strike without U.S. backing in Feb. 2012, and Israeli public opinion experts see Obama's position as reflecting a sound judgement. Research by Citigroup shows that at a price for Brent crude of $120 with an escalation in Iran, it would take 9% of the world's GDP to support the higher energy costs, hitting Europe especially hard (Liam Denning, WSJ 1/6/2012)....

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Dilip Hiro's new book on the emergence of two states India and Pakistan in 1947 presents the story in terms of the two founding leaders Mohandas Gandhi and Mohammed Ali Jinnah. The division of the region into conflicting states is shown as a result of the divergent views and politics of the two leaders. Jinnah who was skeptical of the mass civil disobedience movement of Gandhi and preferred a legislative approach, and Gandhi who appealed to the masses and oppressed millions in British India. Jinnah and Gandhi's style and approach were fundamentally different. Seven decades later Pakistan has failed to build a genuine participatory democracy for most of this period with military actively involved in government, and India in the manner of Gandhi built institutions of participatory democracy under different political parties. Jinnah was an assistant to Dadabhai Naoroji, India's first nationalist leader at the turn of the century, when the two were in London. Naoroji passionately argued against the British policies that entrenched the poverty of millions of Indians in the countryside. Ironically it was Gandhi, not Jinnah, who took up Naoroji's call for bringing hope to the hundreds of millions of people on the subcontinent in "Poverty and Un-British Rule in India," first published in 1901, and showing how the draining of the country by the British was leaving India weak and oppressed. In 2015 that struggle of Naoroji for bringing hope and economic opportunity to millions of people is the task taken up by India's new government and the new government in Pakistan. Naoroji, the first Asian to be elected as a member of the British parliament, established the East India Association in 1867, the predecessor organization to the Indian National Congress which he founded with Hume, and is the leader Gandhi and Jinnah most respected in the first three decades of the twentieth century. Naoroji was elected to the British parliament for the Liberal party from Finsbury Central in 1892, and was assisted in his campaign and duties as a member of parliament by Mohammed Ali Jinnah. In the light of this common upbringing for Gandhi and Jinnah, the nineteen forties and their aftermath could be seen as a detour, not the substance of political life on the subcontinent- just as Mao and Chiang Kai Shek are a sort of detour for today's China. Particularly in a globalized world where technology continues to open up unbelievable economic opportunity, interchange and communication. ...

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Shinzo Abe talks about China and Japan being similiar to competing powers Britain and Germany towards the end of the 19th century at a meeting in Davos.

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Yuka Hayashi's interview with Gen. Shigeru Iwasaki, Chief of the Joint Chiefs of Japan's Self Defence Forces. Iwasaki says Japan will improve its defense capabilities in the southwestern part of Japan and protect Japanese airspace. Japan will increase defense spending under the government of LDP leader Shinzo Abe.

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Total household debt in Thailand at $306 billion in the second quarter of 2014, or 80% of GDP, is twice what it was in 2010. A assistant governor of the central bank expects sharp decline in spending rates. Low water level in dams is likely to affect the agricultural economy. The slowdown in China is lowering Thai exports. The result is a sharply slowing economy with growth expected at 1.5% for 2014.