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Fed chairwoman Yellen says she expects forces that hold inflation back to diminish in months ahead in 2017. With this assessment she expects gradual rate increases by the Fed. The financial markets now expect a rate increase in December 2017.

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Evidence of the multicultural society that the U.S. is becoming is shown in Census Bureau information showing that 50.4% of children under the age of 1 year were Hispanic, black, Asian American or other minority groups. This is up from 49.5% in April 2010 census information. A striking change is that the white population is growing older and the Hispanic population is much younger as a whole. Today minorities are about 37% of the population in the U.S., with the District of Columbia, California, Hawaii, New Mexico and Texas, having minority population in the majority. The median age for white non-Hispanic people is 42 compared to 28 for Hispanics, and early 30's for Asians and Blacks. The baby boom of minority children is also because the number of white women in their 20's and 30's has declined over time as the White non-Hispanic population has aged. Another change that is being seen is that immigration from Mexico has declined to the point where some Hispanics are going back to Mexico. William Frey, a demographer from the Brookings Institution says immmigrants will continue coming from other parts of the world when the economy recovers. The timing for immigration say demographers is good because without the immigrants the U.S. would have an aging society like that in Japan....

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France pays homage to a slain teacher with a ceremony at one of France's oldest universities going back to 1257, the Sorbonne. The event brings together the French from all parts of society as they tackle the second wave of the coronavirus. Centuries of tradition and search for knowledge and the role of one school teacher in a Paris suburb bring together the French nation as it mobilizes to create a society post virus and post terrorism of all kinds, with a new set of priorities around public services. 

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DW.com reporter Sean Goodwin goes from Germany to Australia and finds a very different attitude to coronavirus, kind of laid back. Australians he says have a sense that it is a lucky country, and that "she'll be right." The government and Sydney have been slow to adjust to the reality. A stay at home order is now in place in Sydney and New South Wales state.  Australians seem to think they are somehow far away and isolated from the world's problems. It is a cruisy optimistic mentality, says this report.

 

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India's $1 billion credit line and about $2.5 billion in economic assistance comes at a critical time for Sri Lanka. Indian ties to Sri Lanka go back to the founding of the country with the landing of North Indian prince Vijaya in Tampabanni, cooper colored soil country. No other two nations have ties that go back so long in time to the Buddhist period in India when the Emperor Ashoka sent his son Mahinda with a branch of the Bodhi tree to Sri Lanka. India also provides a role model with Modi's sab ka vikas, sab ke sath, sab ka viswas, sab ka prayas, development for all, with all, with everyone's confidence, everyone's effort as the theme and policy for all of the nations in the Neighborhood Initiative. Another aspect of the ties is the revival of the Buddhist ties as India revives Buddhism and Buddhist religious places in India including Kushinagar where Lord Buddha gained Nirvana. It now has direct air links to major cities in Asia. ...

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"The privilege of United States citizenship is a priceless and profound gift." The 14th Amendment was a repudiation of infamous Dred Scott decision and stood up for rights of black people, at no time was it intended to bring mothers from Asia or Africa to the US to get automatic citizenship for a child. 255,000 mothers a year with no connections to the US arrive here for automatic bithright citizenship- US Supreme Court rules "no" June 27 2025, and objects to mothers filing the lawsuits for their children when the mother has no legal status. Justice Coney Barrett in a 6-3 decision says the district courts cannot make laws over the decisions of the executive branch for the whole country as they have tried to do till now. This means birthright citizenship executive branch decision cannot be overruled across the nation. Most of the lawsuits are filed in states favorable to this or that approach.  In a few months the Supreme Court will address the automatic birthright citizenship issue at its core. Can a mother come to the US just to get her child US citizenship coming on a visitor visa. Much of the nation sees this as belittling the value of US citizenship.  ...

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Tim Davie starts his new job as director general of the BBC. He wants the BBC to go back to its core a universal broadcaster for the whole nation. BBC has dealt with competition from Netflix by using its strengths in developing new drama. Work on programs such as The Normal People has shown BBC capabilities in this field. There is much discomfort with the bigger problem its loose standards letting people do a second job such as taking on advertising or other lucrative assignments outside their main job. Tim Davie wants to end this practice. Making it the universal broadcaster of the whole nation means the new BBC has to avoid being "politically correct." Too much attention to being politically correct and the BBC ended up not reflecting popular sentiment the way it should have on Brexit and the European Union. Davie is less concerned about the license fee that BBC has to negotiate with the government than with these issues because they go to the heart of what the BBC is- a service that speaks for the whole nation. It is also a service that represents the British Commonwealth spirit because of how widely people in countries in Africa and Asia depend on the service in English speaking countries. ...

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French president Macron in a televised address with frankness and humility, the fourth for coronavirus, says the national lockdown will extend till May 11. As infected cases and deaths gradually level they are still very high. His main point- "There is new hope but nothing is won at the moment... the epidemic is not under control." "Were we prepared? No. Clearly not enough. There were failings, there was a lack of material." "These are difficult days and we are now feeling afraid and anxious for our parents and ourselves." In many ways he reflected the feeling in France, Britain and Spain, a sense of humility after the virus.  "We have to reinvent ourselves, and me first of all... We are vulnerable. When can we hope for an end to this? I understand you have many questions and I would like to answer all of them. But I say in all humility, I don't have definitive answers today."   ...

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As inflation eases and job growth continues in the US, and to a lesser extent also in the European Union, there are different opinions on why this is happening. One camp says that the surge in inflation was from temporary supply shocks. Once these shocks abated and supplies came back into the market the situation has eased. Central bank increase in rates played a smaller part in easing inflation say these experts. With interest rates up on loans there is less demand for cars in the US that leads to sellers having less pricing power. The other camp says the increase in interest rates at consecutive meetings had a strong impact on expectations of inflation. Higher interest rates played apart in cooling demand for cars and home purchases.

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Keir Starmer says he will fight every day until you believe again and bring security to working families. "This wound, this lack of trust can only be healed with actions, not words."

"I know that, but we can start today with the simple acknowledgement that public service is a privilege and that your government should treat every person with respect."

He said that for too long government had turned a blind eye as millions slipped into greater insecurity. “Brick by brick, we will rebuild the infrastructure of opportunity. The world-class schools and colleges, the affordable homes that I know are the ingredients of hope for working people. The security that working-class families like mine could build their lives around.”

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EV makers in US offer about $5000 in discounts to replace $7500 lost in government EV tax credits. The hurdle for electric vehicles is the lack of charging infrastructure and the cost of home chargers, in addition to the limited range in miles. The big jump in inflation centered not just on groceries in 2019-2024, there was a 34% increase in the cost of new cars and 50% increase for used cars, and a jump in maintenance costs. Reducing affordability for young people and making car ownership costlier. This turned into a cost of living crisis with groceries up 31%, that affected people's enthusiasm for climate change action when China was building one coal plant a week (adding 95 GW in 2024)- underlying the need to provide immediate relief to American working families and elderly through tax cuts, benefits and shifting tax dollars from climate change action to working families in the next 4 years. This is the approach taken under the DJT One Big Beautiful Act of 2025. Basically what the DJT side of the story is on emissions- US has only 12% of global greenhouse gas emissions, cut this by half to 6% and assuming the EU which has 6% of gas emissions also cuts by half to 3%, the saving just 9%  while the 82% of emitters China, India, Russia and Brazil etc not making the cuts needed the impact on climate change is not significant. If China and India want relief US working families also need relief.  ...

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A Bangladeshi looks back at partition and the movement for independence under Mujibur Rahman, and shows why the Bangladeshi experience in partition was not like that of Indians and Pakistanis- a smaller number of Bangladeshis leaving Calcutta and West Bengal and mainly for new opportunity and a sense of Bengali identity. This has survived to this today as these Bengalis play an important role in the new country and have a different memory and shared history.

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The NYT  looks at how the world is coping- with pictures of a classroom in Denmark , blocks of apartments in Barcelona. One of the first countries to open schools with children 2 yards apart, washing hands every hour and not allowed to play with close touching, teachers staying apart in staff areas. Spain is one of the countries hit hardest and with strict lockdown not allowing children to step outside till now, as is allowed in Britain and France. Children in Barcelona are shown in block apartments with parents calling for letting children outside fdor short periods. Madrid is now letting children go outside home for one hour at a time.

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Charts of foot traffic in retail stores show traffic is back up in home improvement stores but lags in electronics and apparel. Apparel is well below levels below the pandemic with stores closing. E commerce sales in September were up by 45% compared to same period 2019, with this making up 16% of all U.S. retail sales.Weekly foot traffic in the U.S. is down 14% in September compared to one year ago.

Clothing stores have the lowest employment rate with a decline of 29% as of July, and this is where stores have closed the most with job losses permanent.

 

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Crime by violent street gangs with whole sections of cities controlled by different groups, some a remnant of the guerilla wars, has fueled the migration crisis. Many people have left central American countries of San Salvador, Costa RIca, Guatemala, because of the crime and extortion experienced and the lack of law and order in these countries. Criminal violence by these gangs hurts business which leads to even fewer economic opportunities for young people. This leads to a steady flow of migrants to the borders of Mexico trying to enter the U.S. Experts say 95% of homicides in these central American countries are not tackled, with severe distrust of police.  There are fewer emigrants from Mexico as the economy has improved and population growth has slowed. Most of the faces of migrants are now from the Central American countries. A program is underway to create jobs skills in Honduras. But this a small effort in tackling a much bigger problem of violence, lack of economic opportunity, and the legacy of the civil wars in central America in an earlier period that have left whole sections of urban areas under control of former guerillas and militia turned into gangs.  ...

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About the title it depends- costs have come down for food made at home and eating at home, it is the cost of eating outside that has doubled from 3% in 1960's the Kennedy years to 5.7% in 2024 as a share of personal disposable income.  Costs of eating at home are now half of what they were in the Kennedy years when they were about 13% of personal disposable income, as shown in USDA data and charts.The American public says in voting preference and other surveys  that inflation is a key concern, food prices  are mentioned as a key concern. Food prices fell by about 8% during the pandemic 2020 and rose quickly by 2022 by 12%.    Eating at home declined from about 13% of personal disposable income in the Kennedy years in 1962 to about 9% in the Reagan era in 1990 and down to 5.7% today. The real culprit in food inflation is people paying higher prices to eat outside at restaurants. In that period obesity has increased and general health has declined by these spending habits and lack of food savy cooking knowledge that not only cuts costs but also makes it possible to eat healthier by controlling intake of the fat, oil, and other poor ingredients by cooking for oneself at home. At home one avoids packaged goods and cooks the food from healthy ingredients. A correction is badly needed and will help not only health but also the family budget. Its a crazy way to do things not to educate children on healthy foods starting early in school, including in designing lunches and gradually increasing interest in making simple items from scratch. And instead to neglect food and food intake ending up with increase in cost plus poorer health outcomes. Hitting not just the family budget, also the nation's budget with higher and higher expenditures on healthcare. American habits need a change to make more at home like mothers and grandmothers in the 1960's and reverse obesity, poor health outcomes. As for the manufacturers of packaged foods President Biden talked recently about shrinkflation putting less in each bag of food at the same price. "The American public is tired of being played for suckers. I've had enough of shrinkflation. It's a ripoff." WSJ looks at food prices in 1991 and other points in the past and today. In 1991 as a percentage of disposable income food was 11.3%, according to Agriculture Department. This was after an inflationary increase in the 1970's. USDA data shows it has reached 11.2% in 2022. The public is responding by eating less outside and making its own granola and other items, and generally buying less that cuts into sales, a healthy trend. This is expected to lead grocery stores and manufacturers to reduce prices in 2024. ...

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Hancock County, Iowa, is one of those rural counties in the American heartland that did not support Mr. Trump in 2016. This county now supports Trump by a large margin because they see his policies benefitting rural America, and see him as a way for the Republican party to be back in power to pursue a conservative agenda. WSJ reports from Hancock County in Iowa. The American voting system gives more importance to states with smaller populations in the Electoral College relative to larger states. States with large farming communities such as Wisconsin, Michigan and Iowa play a larger role in elections in the US than population alone would suggest. John McCormick of the WSJ talks to farmers in this rural county in Iowa with a higher proportion of less educated voters than the rest of the counties in Iowa. One of five voters have a bachelors degree in Hancock County compared to one in three in Iowa as a whole and 38% nationally. The median age is 44 years compared to 39 years nationally and in Iowa. This part of rural Iowa is also in farmland that is many miles away from large cities and urban areas and more isolated and homogenous as 9 out of ten people are non-Hispanic and white. About a fourth of these voters are supporting his candidacy over Nikki Haley because they see it as more likely to win because of polls, even though Haley is according to the WSJ editorial opinion the stronger candidate for Republicans across the suburbs critical for 2024, which are slightly younger, more educated, and less isolated from the rest of the country. Biden and Obama are a sharp contrast when it comes to rural America. Where his own Agriculture secretary felt rural America was neglected by president Obama, Biden truly cares for rural America and has huge investments in rural America as part of the rural infrastructure effort. ...

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The famous Chilean author of books including: A Long Petal of the Sea, talks to the BBC about her life and travels, about her home country Chile. She left Chile in 1975, spent 13 years in Venezuela and three decades in California. Here she talks about Chile as Pablo Neruda describes it as that long petal on the sea, a country with an insular mentality surrounded by high Andes range, Patagonia, and the Atacama desert. She is not entirely critical of Chile's development under the administrations that came after the dictatorship years. Chile has some upward mobility, the economic conditions have improved compared to the rest of Latin America even though a lot remains to be done. The events in Venezuela show the limits of regimes that have attempted change. Even with administrations from both ends of the spectrum Argentina has turned to the IMF in economic crisis the last in 2018. Brazil has seen a commodities boom followed by a severe bust, and the lack of funding for basic services including sanitation and health. This gives a sobering view of the economic situation in Latin America. Allende says Chile has modernized and created prosperity though at some social cost.  Isabel Allende is still nostalgic about her home country and still calls it home as she reaches 75 years, with a world wide audience for her books in 42 languages, 70 million copies sold. ...

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The idea that strongmen and populist politics are the problems of Sri Lanka is misleading. In the recovery of 2023-2024 it is PM Ranil Wickremasinghe with the help of PM Modi's financial loan assistance and arrangement through the IMF that put Sri Lanka back on the road to recovery.  Sri Lanka was called Ceylon during the colonial era. It became a Portuguese colony in 1505, and by 1600 a Dutch colony from which the Dutch extracted spices and cinnamon. In 1802 it was transferred by treaty to the British till independence in 1948. British left 1948 a country with an economy generating surplus from exports of coconuts, cinnamon, rubber and tea which financed a generous welfare state with subsidized rice. Under the British literacy was highest in South Asia. The failures were in race relations over two decades of war 1977-2009 by the attitudes of Sinhalese and Tamil leaders, and lack of a role model in northern India as PM Modi offers today for modernization. The second is the colossal failure of the "cut" politics where governments use their office for a cut in every business transaction which PM Modi has fought against with calls for good honest governance. The governments after 2009 continued these policies and let the central banks funds be depleted in the process leading to the financial crisis, inflation and inability to fund imports. Lessons are being learned and PM Modi is setting the path for all of South Asia for investment in infrastructure and modernization, good governance and Vikshit Bharat- developed India 2047. Sr Lanka is part of this vision for South Asia and Indonesia with 1.7 billion people.   ...

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This BBC report shows how much has changed with Germany's erstwhile leaders. From 1998 to 2005 Mr. Gerhard Schroeder was head of the German government. His ties with Russian leaders and Gazprom have led to severe criticism in Germany. He survived an effort this week to remove him from the local chapter of the Social Democrat Party. He now faces a loss of his office and staff and other privileges in the German parliament. The Budget committee of parliament says "he no longer upholds the continuing obligations of his office," says this report. Mr. Schroeder has filed a suit against the German parliament in the Berlin Administrative Court. This BBC report shows how things are changed in 2022- Merkel, Schroeder, Steinmeier and other politicians of the Christian Democrats and Social Democrats face intense public skepticism of their role in a situation where Germany faces a cold winter with gas rationing. It is the Greens with Robert Habeck who are faced with the hard work of finding the energy to meet the shortfall and to build back on renewable energy to fight climate change. Very little was done under the previous administrations it now appears, as the public looks back with regret. ...

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Glassman cites Ronald Reagan who once said economists are people who look at things in practice and then see if they can prove this in theory. He co-authored a book on "Dow 36,000" in 1999. What happened and why? He correctly says the Dow is up to 12,000- and this only after Fed chairman Bernanke's $600 billion quanitative easing on top of low to zero interest rate policies after the 2008 crisis- in the 12 years since. So what happened? Glassman says what he did not account for is the huge decline in the prospects for the U.S. economy, with Congressional Budget Office estimates of 2% growth over the next 70 years, compared to the 3.5% growth in the first 50 years of the 20th century. A lot goes go into this, including the debt buildup, the lack of investment in human capital and K-12 education. The other is the huge volatility in stock returns, and the "discontinuous" risks stemming from things like the home price crash, terrorist 9/11 attack and other such developments. He says he is tired of telling investors to hold on in the face of such huge volatility and uncertainty. He advises a cautious strategy, a pull back from stocks to reduce the downside on returns and a smaller allocation to stocks....

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A Russian Kinzhal hypersonic missile attack on Kviv is repelled with all missiles shot down on May 16, 2023. For the first time in the war the missile attacks are causing far less damage than in the early days of the war. A DW.com German reporter in Kviv on German television says the whole attack lasted only 15 minutes before things were back to quiet over Kviv with missiles exploding in the sky not on the ground.

This week Mr. Zelensky visited Berlin, then Aachen for the Charlemagne Prize as a symbolic acceptance of the Ukrainian people into the European community of nations with Zelensky speaking in Aachen in Ukrainian. He then went to Paris and London. Next week the G7 meet in Hiroshima, Japan. The war that followed a pandemic enters its 64th week in 2023.

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The importance of a gap year in education remains underutilized in Indian education because of a lack of role models. A gap year in education during the early college and postgraduate years can give a person new experiences and skills, a new sense of purpose, that he or she may carry over into further education and create additional opportunities over time. In this way the gap year actually reinforces the idea that is behind changes in the way education is being setup today, that encourage young people to try out different subjects in the sciences and the humanities to find what they are best at and where their interests lie. In the same way new experiences including travel, meeting people, trying out new activities can enhance one's personal development and growth as a person.

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David French in the NYT describes a moral center that is avoiding extremes on college campuses. French quotes from W.B. Yeats poem The Second Coming that was written in the period after the First World War during the Russian Civil War, when things appeared to be in disarray. "Things fall apart; the center cannot hold... The best lack all conviction/ while the worst are full of passionate intensity." The United States is built on a series of ideas from the Declaration of Independence, ideas that were revisited and relived at important times such as the Civil War with Lincoln and the Great Depression with FDR. It is that moral center that French speaks of when he cites Yeats and talks about it being challenged from extreme views on the right and the left in politics and in society.

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A 40 year old sailor from Normandy accomplishes an utterly mind boggling feat- sailing alone from the western coast of France across the Atlantic to the Cape of Good Hope in 19 days, to the Atlantic at Cape Leeuvin in 29 days, then on to Cape Horn at the tip of Argentina and Chile in 43 days, from there to the Equator in 56 days, and the last leg back up the Brittany coast of France., around the world in 64 days. He wins the 10th edition of Vendee Globe, a non stop non assisted race around the world, and does this for a second time. A heroic tribute to ancestors Cartier and Champlain who sailed to Quebec and to Africa and the east from the coast of Brittany from the 1530's.