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China's healthcare system is overburdened and overwhelmed, says this report in the NYT. The changes in living and investment in infrastructure and housing are not matched by similar investments in the health system. Shortages of hospital beds and doctors is making tackling the coronavirus in the Wuhan region more difficult. A new hospital is being built in 6 days in late January 2020 in Wuhan for the coronavirus patients, showing how severe the situation is. 

The lack of strict regulation and lack of enforcement at the local level is leading to the situation where the virus was detected in twice- in 2003 in wild animal meat and again in 2019. Public anger and call for a ban on wild animal meat is happening today.

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The Federal Railroad Administration and the DOT agencies now require that there be 2 person crew on all freight trains to ensure railway safety. Accidents have taken place in recent years requiring action. Over 50 years we have observed that cost cutting that undermines safety, costcutting that forgets or ignores the process needed for quality, only leads to higher costs sometimes in the billions of dollars and loss of public goodwill. A freight train with toxic materials derailed in Ohio last year causing much loss of goodwill with local communities and impacting the health of residents. Workers form a key part of the processes that generate products not just machines, respecting the dignity and health of workers, providing the training and work hours that improve quality and concentration are essential. Companies and executives do well only when this is made to happen.

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China plans $29 billion of local bond sales (200 billion yuan) through the central government, to meet the needs of cash strapped local governments. Its proceeds would go to projects approved by Beijing, for airports, power plants and railroads. In earlier year local governments depended on land sales as abig source of money. China's tax system sends most revenue to the central government, while provincial and municpal governments are left to handle most of the spending on education and healtcare, which is why these needs may not be getting the funding they need. Land sales are now drying up as asource of money as the property market declines. This does not mean that the local governments are not indirectly taking on debt. Chinese law prohibits cities and provinces from taking on debt without Beijing's approval, but companies owned by local governments have borrowed heavily to fund public works projects. Shanghai Chengtou Corporation, a municipal government company that builds infrastructure has taken on 200 billion yuan in debt in 15 years. Economists say this kind of debt may be 20% of annual GDP, which added to the central government debt of 20% of GDP, would bring the combined debt to 40% of GDP. What this new effort does is make the taking on of new debt official and more transparent. The principle behind the earlier tight control of debt issued by local governments was to prevent local governments going overboard and the central government having to take responsibility, as happened in the 1990's in India, Mexico, Russia and in the USA....

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Voters in France's local government elections for 98 departments, gave the Union for a Popular Movement, led by former president Sarkozy, a decisive win with control of about two thirds of the departments. The departments are local units of government in France, and this is a preparation for the major parties before the 2017 presidential elections.

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With imported farm laborers not allowed into Britain during the pandemic local people volunteered for the job of berry picking during strawberry season. A professional cricket player for a team in New Zealand whose season was interrupted says its hard work but he enjoyed it. He picked 565 pounds of strawberries in about 6 hours. He says he is proud of his effort, and he thinks he did something worthwhile plus in the outdoors.

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Interview with Robert Shiller of Yale University, by Simon Constable of the Wall Street Journal. Shiller tells Constable that the second dip recession is imminent. Shiller senses that when the National Bureau of Economic Research looks at third quarter data for 2010, it will find that the second dip of the recession started here. In other comments Shiller said that the U.S. is standing at the edge of deflation. The view on housing markets of Shiller, who is one of the creators of the Case-Shiller Home Price Index, is that housing prices could decline for the next 5 years. Shiller sees the US's chief concern as unemployment. He suggests that local governments and the federal government create jobs. One idea is to have a teacher's aide in each classroom.

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Toyota's goal is to remain the preeminent automobile manufacturer in emerging markets and the IMV is part of its strategy for achieving this goal. The IMV series for emerging markets, with one million in manufacturing capacity coming off a single platform to lower costs, is designed to meet local needs from a price standpoint and rough road conditions. Sales of one million off of a single platform is an achievement only Toyota will have achieved. A minivan, a sport utility vehicle and 3 pickup trucks are all made from a single chassis, with localized production since 2004. The IMV series is expected to account for 10% of the 9.58 vehicle sales goal for 2012. CEO Akio Toyoda plans to increases sales in emerging markets to 50% of total sales by 2015, up from 40% in 2011. IMV vehicles are made in 11 emerging market countries- in Argentina, India, South Africa and Thailand, and are sold as the Hilux pickup, the Fortuner SUV, and the Innova minivan. Over the years Toyota has transferred more of the design and development to emerging market countries to meet local preferences and reduce the effects of a strong yen, leaving only core components to be designed and manufactured in Japan. As it recovers from supply disruptions due to floods in Thailand and the tsunami in Japan, Toyota is planning on sales of 9.58 million in 2012, a steep climb of 21% from the 7.95 million sold in 2011....

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The Times looks at local elections in Britain this week, and a swing to the Labor party of 700 seats given Labor's 15 point lead over the Conservatives. This is a dry run for the general elections that Keir Starmer is preparing for, as Britain ripped by crises like the rest of Europe and the US, faces another once in a generation period to decide what kind of a society to create for the future. The blue wall refers to former Labor party supporting constituencies that voted for Boris Johnson in the mistaken assumption that the  Conservatives could deliver for British workers and families. A similar situation exists in the US as president Biden seeks to gain traditional Democratic states such as Pennsylvania and the midwestern states such as Wisconsin, southern states such as Georgia, and western states such as Arizona.

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Jos Biden loves to talk about his Irish ancestors. This Times report takes an in depth look at Irishmen in America and how Biden uses his Irishness to activate his progressive base. For many years in the twentieth century Irishmen were active in American Catholic progressive politics. Many states in the northeast of the country have large Irish populations including Pennsylvania, Ohio, Massachusetts, Maine, New Hampshire, Delaware, and New York. About 10-15% of the population in these states being Irish. About 34 million people having Irish ancestry in the US. forming a significant voting bloc. Biden carries an appeal to this bloc of voters that overrides local politics. Only John F. Kennedy, another president with Irish grand parents had this kind of appeal in American politics.

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Summit County median rents in the towns of Breckenridge, Dillon, Frisco, in the Rocky Mountains near Denver, Colorado now exceed $4000. This pushes low paid workers making $36,000 a year serving tourist visitors to the state further away to longer commutes along stretches of rural highway. This NYT report looks at the different lives in the state with 70% of homes vacant or rented out in Summit County as second homes, and the two different worlds based on family wealth and the workers serving these communities. The lack of affordable housing near resorts. Breckenridge and other communities in the Rocky mountains are giving homeowners thousands of dollars to add deed restrictions to limit renting to local residents.

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See stunning pictures of Denali and wild life in the snow in the Washington Post.

Denali means the "Tall One." Alaska Republican Senato Lisa Mukowski wants "Denali" and has Interior Secretary Don Borghum's approval to change the name back to Denali for Mount Mckinley. It was named Mckinley in 1917, but Alaskans and natives tribes have always known it for thousands of years as Denali. The irony some say is that Denali also means "the Great One," which fits in with MAGA. There is more concern in Denali Borough says this report, the area through which one goes to get to Mount Denali about funding for the National Park Service and park road repairs, renovations. Half a million tourists support the local economy and businesses. It is so important to Alaskans.

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Russia has 600 billion dollars in reserves and with oil prices above $100, with the Ukraine conflict lifting oil prices for Russian oil exports, there is little that the US and Europe have done to prepare for this situation. The Merkel years were essentially wasted in building a trade based relationship on cheap Russian gas supplies, and the wasted resources under Bush and Obama in two wars in Iraq and Afghanistan only distracted the US from the major issues relating to China and Europe that it now faces. 

The need is for a new overall structure to be built- for social structure supporting all aspects of infrastructure, and stronger supply chains with local manufacturing. And international structures that include India and other nations of Asia and Latin America, Africa, that would be a framework for the future- a broader framework for peaceful relations.

 

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Harris will visit United Autoworkers Union Local 652 in Lansing to remind autoworkers of the support of president Joe Biden for the labor movement in the US. And for the efforts for restoring jobs and wages after decades of neglect by both previous Democratic and Republican administrations. Biden was the first US president to stand on a picket line inthe history of the US. Harris-Walz now look to unions and labor support, support of workers and families in the industrial midwestern states. For the first time old rust belt factories are being revived with new infrastructure renewal and new technologies products in a new concept that is tried for the first time at a scale of investments of billions of dollars that was never done before. This is the breakthrough that Biden and now Harris  are putting through as The Way Forward for a new generation and the Renewal of America.

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Epidemic of betel nut addiction that affects China is the subject of this report in The Times. Chinese doctors study in 2017 shows that oral cancer patients related to use of the betel nut for chewing in recreational use could reach 1 million b y 2030. Betel nut is being banned in some cities. Advertising of betel nut online or on television is now banned. Over $10 billion is made by the betel nut producers and it has become a part of the local economy in the province of Hunan says this report. This shows the problems of public health that remain to be tackled in China, as well as India, after achievements in sanitation tackled the basic problems of disease. Tobacco use is a major problem in both countries, and a major danger to public health, with awareness happening only now.

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The problem of information providers is linked to the problem of the recipient of the information- the common man in America. For the common man in America these are distant places with strange cultures and manners of living, remote from his everyday existence in an industrialized country. Why should the common man in America care if a small fraction of GNP and a trained military with advanced equipment will be sufficient to deal with situations in remote places. A fast growing economy between 1950- 2000 could also absorb the costs of local conflicts. The reason the common man in America should care is that the economy is expected to grow slowly, so that poor information leading to poor decisions on allocating limited and declining resources for different local conflicts- a war in Iraq costing 1 trillion dollars, and a war in Afghanistan 1 trillion dollars- can compromise future economic security, investment in America and overall defense needs. Especially when money wasted with poor decisions cannot be retrieved or put back in the Treasury, and creates future problems....

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Bolivia's economy showed 6.5% growth in 2013 and the portion of the people in extreme poverty has dropped from 38% in 2005 to 24% in 2013. Policies of president Morales are winning praise for being prudent from the IMF and the World Bank. A greater share of the revenues from natural gas production and high natural gas prices, Bolivia's main export products, has enabled the government to build international reserves to $14 billion. This is half the country's GDP, and the highest ratio of reserves to GDP in the world. Morales has adopted socialist policies and at the same time provided fiscally responsible management, showing the two are not inconsistent and can be adapted to local conditions to build a middle class and improve living conditions.

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The WSJ is still calling the president's stop fentanyl flows tariffs on CMC Canada Mexico and China economic tariffs in this editorial board opinion. It is incomprehensible that little or no mention is made in most of the media of the magnitude of injury to the US, the 490,000 deaths in America over 12 years as the result of Canada, Mexico and China not taking the needed action to stop fentanyl flows into the US. There is also the added factor of lack of a level playing field in trade which has resulted in the same communities in many cases having suffered from in the case of China loss of 25 million jobs over the last 10 years and loss of $250 billion in infrastructure and public services for schools, libraries, childcare, and health care clinics that were lost from losses in taxes for local communities in the US. This has decimated life in these communities and in small towns across America.  In the case of Mexico the illegal migrant flows that were not stopped at the border have put an added burden on already underfunded and strained public services in local communities in the US. This is the reason for much of the frustration and anger that has built up over time in these communities with the response from the DJT administration to find solutions. CMC countries could have taken action on their own, yet the US had waited too long for this action. Reciprocal in reciprocal tariffs is about fairness, a level playing field, something that China had agreed to in the spirit of the WTO entry in 1994 and American desire to aid China industrialize build a modern economy. Instead US business was coopted by China during the industrialization process 1995-2010, 2010-2020, including in the first term of the DJT administration even when tariffs were imposed. This happened with transfer of technologies happening late into the first term of the DJT administration 2016-2020, which has led to a much of the pent up frustration and action in the first 100 days of DJT in 2025.  ...

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This DW.com report on Lebaon describes the launch of ration card program to help Lebanese families caught in poverty with the economic collapse there. Families will receive $126  per month  for one year in $556 million economic package to benefit 700,000 families. The funding backing for this project is needed from the World Bank. This report says about half of the people in Lebanon now live in poverty in one of the Middle East's once affluent regions. Since the economic crisis in 2019 DW.com says poverty levels have increased by 80%, local currency lost 90% of its value, and foreign exchange reserves decreased by $15 billion. 

Lebanon is a clear example of how mismanagement of the economy and political conflicts can ruin a country's prospects, with the sudden economic collapse bringing poverty and severe distress.

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Liu He, the author of the 2013 DRC report on recommended changes to China's banking and financial system, is now the director of the Communist party's top financial policy committee and senior advisor to president Jinping. Changes he is pushing for relate to increasing focus on credit risk for China's banks, promoting competiion between banks, a mechanism for letting banks fail, and a deposit insurance program to protect the public against failing banks. To open up the sector dominated by state owned banks, opening private banks would be encouraged. Local governments would be allowed to issue bonds in an effort to reduce their dependence on land sales and opaque off-market borrowing. The urgency of this agenda comes from the realization in top Chinese policy circles and the Jinping-Keqiang administration of the risks to the banking sysem from the lack of attention to credit risks in bank lending.

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This is a report on unfair trade with China. China and unfair trade resulting in a $295 billion trade surplus with US. China and unfair trade resulting in a $1 trillion trade deficit with the world. This has devastated manufacturing communities, workers and families, for 1 billion people in the US and Europe, and deprived India of opportunities in manufacturing for 1.4 billion people. Alongside this article we have CPA article showing losses in manufacturing and the cost to the American people using estimates of three types of losses in jobs, other jobs, and taxes that provide public services and infrastructure. The massive blow to America over the last decade of unfair trade and overconcentration of manufacturing in  China was for 25 million in job losses and $250 billion in local infrastructure and public services lost for workers and families in communities and towns across vast parts of America.

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The Blinken Wang Yi meeting at the G-2- in Indonesia is the first high level meeting between US and China since March when the Ukraine war started. In the press briefing after the meeting Blinken said "more than four months into this brutal invasion the PRC stands by Russia." He pointed to Beijing support of Russia at the United Nations, dissemination of Russian talking points through Chinese state media and joint military exercizes with Moscow. One aspect of the relations that is beyond the control or good intentions of the two countries top diplomats is the tit for tat response that began with the presidency of Donald Trump. Trump may have seen this as a way to talk to the voter base fed up with two decades of one sided trade with China with manufacturing shipped out to China and local communities of families and workers in regions across the US losing jobs and in decline. Much of this shift was done by US companies during the Clinton, Bush and Obama administrations over two decades. The strident tone adopted by Trump was met by tit for tat responses in Chinese media till the pandemic when it assumed a new aspect of Chinese origins of the coronavirus. The result is that Sinophobia in the US is met by a response in Chinese media and in the thinking of the Chinese leadership under Jinping that now sees the relationship as having already shifted during the pandemic. The paradox in this is that the US in its effort to get other countries on its side is only beginning to make an effort of get America's own companies and large business investors on its side. Most American companies are still continuing trade and business with China as before.  The same situation exists with the shift of manufacturing from Japan and the European Union to China, with the loss of jobs and decline of local communities that depended on manufacturing. Japanese and European companies are acting in ways that are similar to American companies. Having managed the shift of manufacturing from European Union and Japan to China these companies have done little to change this business situation in 2022 carrying on as before. This is the paradox of the current situation that business both in the US and EU, and Japan is not on the side of their governments, even as their governments attitude to China, particularly now after the pandemic and the Ukraine war has shifted drastically. Alongside this is the popular opinion that has shifted gradually over the last 10 years in the US and EU, first in these very local communities that lost manufacturing to China, and then across broader sections of the public, and now across whole regions of America, Britain, the EU and Japan. This shift in popular opinion has little interest in the way business conducts business overseas or governments conduct diplomacy in nuanced statements. As a result neither the governments of the US, EU and Japan or the business of the US, EU and Japan are in control of this shifting situation that has its momentum and pace operating quite independently of governments and business. And public opinion across America, Europe, Japan, and also in India is moving in an entirely new direction.     ...

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Critical to move forward in making investments for growth in the Indian economy are the government debt to GDP ratio and GST revenue collections. FInance minister Sitharaman tells parliament that the government debt to GDP ratio is 56.2 % and considerably less than many countries of the leading economies in Europe and the US, less than France and the US, Canada which are in triple digits. GST collections are at 1.49 lakh crores for July 2022, the second highest in history. Inflation is at 7% or below that.  Non performing assets of commercial banks are at 5.9%. She said about 4000 banks in China were reportedly on verge of being bankrupt by comparison and China has huge debt problem for local government. Much of the hard work of the government is makingit possible to set the conditions such as these for basic macroeconomic factors to be put in place for the next stage in India's journey to fulfill the aspirations of its people for a modern and technologically advanced economy with opportunity for all. ...

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Krugman points out that without aid to state and local governments, cash strapped cities and states will be cutting back on services and employment, undoing much of the work of the stimulus. These cutbacks by local governments is showing up in the unemployment figures from the Commerce Department. And social cohesion is being strained as the outlook for those without jobs for more than 6 months looks worse with the economy slowing down.

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It is no surprise what we see in the US today- the loss of the middle class, the unaffordability crisis for education, healthcare, childcare, and poor, broken infrastructure. Over 10 years the US trade deficit with China has led to loss of about 25 million jobs and $250 billion in taxes that support local infrastructure and public services. Where 20% of the people do 80% of the spending, 80% of the people only 20% of spending (Moody's Analytics). This is how the uneven trade led to the destruction of manufacturing centers and communities across the 51 states in America, devastating families and young people. This is no longer Washington's, Lincon's or FDR's land of opportunity. Each $1 billion in additional imports to the US costs 4252 jobs. (CPA) This can be read as how many jobs are being lost in the additional trade of goods when one side is exporting more than the other.  There are three levels of losses. There is also an indirect job loss in the number of jobs created by that one job in manufacturing to serve the needs of these factory families in communities. This can be estimated at 1 job that depends on 1 manufacturing job. Together this means 8500 jobs lost for every $1 billion of goods in a trade deficit. US trade deficit of $295 billion in 2024 with China translates into about 2.5 million jobs lost every year. Over 10 years this is about 20-25 million jobs, enough to decimate America's entire manufacturing capabilities and manufacturing infrastructure, whole communities and towns disappearing or suffering destruction across the country.  With the loss of these jobs comes a third cost, the taxes paid that maintain small town infrastructure and public services like libraries, schools and health centers where these factories are located. At $10,000 in taxes lost per job, for 8500 jobs lost per $1 billion in uneven trade there is a loss of $85 million.  For the $295 billion deficit the US has with China this loss adds up to $25 billion per year. Over 10 years this means taking out this much in local infrastructure and public services like libraries, schools and health centers worth $250 billion.  ...

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This exceptional account by Ginger Thompson and Sara Cohen shows the Obama administration's strategy of creating credibility for its immigration enforcement by setting a target of 400,000 deportations a year, and focussing on the border states such as California, Texas, Arizona. The deportations were kept away from the midwestern states and states in the interior of the country. Under the Bush administration raids were made on businesses hiring illegal immigrants and the policy implemented all over the country, not selectively targeting the border. Local police were given authority to check immigration status of suspected foreigners. Deportations reached a peak of 383,000 under Bush in 2008. In 2008 Congress supported the Bush administration by doubling the immigration agency budget to $5.5 billion and imposed a mandate requiring detaining a daily average of 34,000 immigrants. Under the Obama administration the pilot project for state and local police to check immigration status of people fingerprinted in an arrest was expanded. Under project Secure Communities police could hand over illegal immigrants to immigration authorites, and new implementation criteria in a June 2010 memo easily covered a third of the 11.5 million illegal immigrants, according to immigration officials cited by NYT. Removal process was expedited so that expedited removals doubled under the Obama administration. Under Bush about 75% of those deported were sent home with criminal charges if they had no criminal record. Under Obama this increased to 90%. The NYT analysis suggests the immigration enforcement and grasp of the immigrant story looking for a better life, was better for "good" immigrants under presidents from border states such as Reagan from California and the elder Bush from Texas, than under a midwesterner of minority background. It shakes up the image of Hispanic Americans as part of a political affiliation to a particular party. ...