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MaC Group, a risk advisor to Spanish banks, says Spanish banks hold about 30 billion pounds of distressed real estate and unsellable land. Prices are down 28% from the peak in 2007, according to a report by the IESE Business School, and are expected to fall a further 15-20 percent in the next 2-3 years by some experts. Much of the bank owned land is far from city centers and there is no demand for this. One Madrid based consultant R.R. de Acuna Asociados, says 43% of bank owned land is poorly located and there may be no demand for unfinished residential units for decades. The new government of Mariano Rajoy plans to take action to cleanup the banking system. Louis de Guindos, director of PricewaterhouseCoopers and IE Business School Center of Finance is expected to become the new finance minister. Guindos says strict rules need to be implemented, with some banks able to handle this and others that won't. MaC Group's Cantos, a managing partner, says the gap is huge between prices offered by banks and what investors will pay- as much as 70%. Prime assets can be sold for 30% discount but the land, residential and commercial real estate will require discounts of 70%. Banks have made provisions for losses of 30%, and are now facing the prospect of another 40% in losses. As a result many of the medium and small sized banks which operate only inside Spain may have to be shut down or consolidated by the government of Mariano Rajoy. Only the larger banks like Banco Santander, Banco Bilbao, La Caxia, and Bankia are likely to surivive....

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Koichi Hamada, a former professor of economcs at Yale University, is one of prime minister Abe's advisors for the policy called Abenomics. He says the increase in the consumption tax was never part of Abenomics. It was the legacy of the previous Democratic Party of Japan's policies and of prime minister Noda, who pushed for it in the last 2 years of his administration. Nikkei polls in 2011 showed 53% of the public opposed to the doubling of the consumption tax to 10% by 2015 proposed by Noda and passed in 2012. Ichiro Ozawa's group of legislators left the DPJ over this issue. The real force behind the push to double the tax was the Finance Ministry, which warned the Abe government that not increasing the tax would make Japan look fiscally irresponsible. The Finance Ministry appears to have lost sense of the timing and fiscal hawks in the LDP party had gone along with it. The deteriorating global economy in the third quarter has hurt Japanese exports, and the lack of wage increases coupled with the increase in the consumption tax to 8% from 5% made Japanese feel poorer, leading to conditions that exacerbated the situation. Recognizing this Yamamoto says Abe has called the snap election in Dec. 2014, after postponing the second increase in the consumption tax to 10% in 2015 which the Noda legislation set to the future date of 2017. He says Abe had to have the guts to take on the Finance Ministry for Abenomics to work....

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With the strong jobs growth report in September the US Federal Reserve, America's central bank, is expected to increase interest rates by 0.75% at its meeting on Nov. 1-2. That will be the fourth interest rate increase in 4 consecutive meetings of the Fed. It is designed to tackle inflation yet it also reverses the period of low interest rates for savers that extended from 2000 to 2020. This period covered two crises one created by irresponsible behaviour of banks in the financial crisis of 2000 and the second a natural health disaster from the pandemic when interest rates were brought down to zero as a policy response. During that period savers who suffered decline in savings with little interest income and lower income groups were hit by both the financial crises, employment gaps that hurt income and savings, and the shift of jobs overseas as jobs were shifted to China and American manufacturing declined. Economic policy was determined in that period by economists who failed to grasp the dangers to American manufacturing, to American communities with loss of jobs from offshoring, rising inequality that fragmented society.   This has changed under the Fed run by Mr. Powell first appointed by Mr. Trump and now renominated by Mr. Trump, who is not an economist and brings a very different mindset to central banking, going with common sense about what works for average Americans. a sense of humility, and down to earth about American workers and American manufacturing and its place in America. ...

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WIth governments of conservative parties in power in France, Germany and Italy, taking steps to help industries and companies affected by the financial crisis, and working to protect jobs, these parties have shelved their market oriented reforms and are enacting policies that protect workers. As a result they are becoming stronger and the socialists and social democratic parties are looking weaker, especially when these parties in France and Germany and Italy have fractured into many groups. Another reason the conservative parties are popular is that by preserving and strengthening the social safety net for health care and by strengthening infrastructure and public transport investment, and exercizing good judgement and pragmatic and unideological based policy in a global economy facing unanticipated problems, they have come to be seen as reliable.

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Ted Cruz is seen as the most pro-Israel of the Republican candidates for president. Pro-Israel groups are joining to fund his campaign for president after his win in the Wisconsin primary. Sheldon Adelson is one of the donors sought by the Cruz campaign. Paul Singer and the Ricketts family have funded super PACs that have financed the anti-Trump movement's advertising efforts, but not directly supported Cruz. Cruz is trying to change this following the win in the Wisconsin primary seen as the turning point in the election campaign. Cruz added to the bit of humor about the Cruz campaign on the late night show "Jimmy Kimmel Live," with this exchange: Kimmel saying that Cruz simply held out till these donors found someone they liked less than Cruz. "There you go. its a powerful strategy," said Cruz. Even backers trying to recruit new donors are aware of Cruz's ideologue reputation, saying he is still the "good designated driver" after the party. Cruz has put forward the economic message of Jobs, Growth and Opportunity, as he broadens his appeal outside the conservative values base following the Wisconsin primary....

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New rules for foreign direct investment in India will allow foreign multibrand retailers to own upto 51% of joint ventures in India. Rules set earlier allowed foreign retailers like Wal-Mart to only setup wholesale joint ventures. The move by the Indian government lets Wal-Mart, Carrefour, Metro Group and other retailers open supermarkets. The rules were also changed to allow 100% ownership for single brand retailers such as Nike stores. Prior rules limited single brand retailers to 51% ownership. This is a major step because of the growth in the Indian retail market, and the small portion of the overall market that is occupied by large retail chains with well developed supply chain management. Technopak Advisors Pvt. Ltd, a consulting firm in New Delhi, estimates that the Indian retail market has sales of about $470 billion a year, with only about 5% of this or $27 billion in modern organized retail operations. In the five year period 2012-2016 sales are expected to grow to $675 billion, with $85 billion coming from organized retail. Companies with operations in India that are expected to expand operations include Bharti Wal-Mart, Tesco which has a agreement with Tata Group's Star Bazaar stores, Germany's Metro Group AG. according to these numbers, even with competition from the organized large stores, smaller stores will still occupy 88% compared to 95% of the retail space in 2016. And the growth in the overall market means that the smaller mom and pop type stores will still have growth from $443 billion today to $590 billion in 2016. A government backed study by ICRIER shows that smaller stores lose about 23% of sales in the first year, but recover quickly in following years because of growth in the overall market. The introduction of modern supply chain management, modern refrigeration methods, and large investments by leading global retailers is likely to change the way food and other products are stored and marketed, a revolutionary change for India where these methods and investments lag far behind the developed world. For this reason this may give major impetus to modernizing the Indian economy....

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The second wave of the coronavirus is bigger than the first with the U.S. exceeding 100,000 cases a day for many days in November and hospitalizations doubling to 93,000 from the beginning to the end of November. There is also the fatigue with the virus for healthcare workers and the people, and loss of income for workers leading to income and food insecurity. In this situation a second stimulus to help people and businesses is a urgent priority for Congress. A group of bipartisan senators have put together  $908 billion stimulus plan to get through the Congress by December 11. This is a compromise between the two parties. Supporting the bill are Cassidy, Romney, and Collins for Republicans and Manchin, Warner, Cassidy for Democrats. It would provide- 1. $300 a week in federal unemployment benefits for 4 months. 2. $160 billion for state and local governments. 3. Temporary moratorium on coronavirus related lawsutis. 4. Additional funding for small business, schools, health care, transit, student loans. There is growing agitation among influential senators against the leadership in both parties of McConnell and Schumer, with the sense that the leadership has failed to recognize how critical the issue of emergency relief is for tens of millions of Americans. This is its only hope for passage with the bickering of the leadership on both sides. ...

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How to get smaller supply chain companies with less than investment grade ratings to shift to renewable energy contracts that last 5-10 years when banks have strict lending criteria. Walmart has a solution working with Schneider Electric. Consider that companies are tackling emissions across their entire supply chain. For Walmart this means cutting one billion metric tons of emissions by 2030. Under Gigaton PPA Walmart suppliers can form a group to buy energy. So that Amy's Kitchen, Great lakes Cheese, and Levi Strauss collectively purchased a12 year renewable energy purchase agreement  from a wind farm in Kansas operated by Danish energy company Orsted. Energize is a similar program funded by drug companies Pfizer, Biogen and others for their supply chain and delivered by Schneider Electric. Consider that for Microsoft's 13 million metric tons of carbon dioxide emissions, 96% come from the supply chain. It needs to cut emissions by half by 2030, a big challenge. In the European Union the solution being considered is for the European Commission to offer state backed and market backed guarantees for deals. Guarantees would be offered by member states of the EU or banks and insurers to provide backing for purchase agreements buyers to overcome credit constraints. ...

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Leah Williamson is the author of the new book You Have the Power with Guardian football writer Suzanne Wrack. It is a motivational story of England's European cup soccer winning team from 2022 for girls ages 10 to 14 years. Its subtitle is Find Your Strength and Believe You Can. Leah says this is the age group that struggles the most in terms of who we want to be as young women. It is also the age when young girls decide to drop out of sport. What has made a difference for Leah is that her mother was a footballer playing for Milton Keynes and her grandmother played badminton competitively. She remembers going to Arsenal for games with her mom and grandmother at an early age. By age 7 she was playing competitively and she was scouted for Arsenal girls. She has played for Arsenal since then. She started on boys team when there were no teams for girls. A confident attitude came naturally to her and once she decided to play soccer competitively it did not matter that professional soccer for women did not exist when she joined Arsenal girls. ...

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While German car fleets have reduced fuel consumption by 25% from 1990, BMW suffers from impression of higher fuel consumption with sporty cars. One environmental group shows BMW in 2005 sold cars that have an average 192 grams of CO2 per kilometre above industry average of 162 grams of CO2 per kilometre. The climate change issue is explosive in Germany and the German industry's main lobbying group's president resigned over its image and failures in commnications with public opinion on climate change.

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This report in The Times shows the need to counter misinformation in parts of the media about vaccines. Inadvertently or through a poor comprehension of the data, German media reports in Handelsblatt and the Bild have stated that vaccine effectiveness for older people is 8%. Here in The Times of London, Oxford University and Astra Zeneca point out that the 8% figure is for the number of people in the trials who were given the vaccine in the age group 56-70 years. This does not refer to how effective the vaccines were in older people.  The first dose increases monoclonal antibodies for people of all ages, say Astra Zeneca and Oxford. We are now beyond trials in a sense today as Israel has vaccinated large parts of the population and the UK, India are vaccinating millions of British and Indian citizens. Israeli reports from one of the major medical centres show that the second dose increases monoclonal antibodies by multiple times and provides effective protection. As British data is available from medical research institutions from the vaccination drive in Britain, and from India, the effectiveness of the vaccines used in Britain and India will be shown more clearly. India today has used a package with near 100% compliance to tackle the virus relatively effectively by combining safety protocols (masks+ social distancing+ hygiene) with nutritional, medicinal protocols, restricted overseas flights. Cases are down to 13,000 for 1.2 billion people, with positivity rate in testing down to 1.66%. One readers comment in The Times says a lot- She says her 79 year old Irish mother was given the vaccine today in Coventry, England. She was given the Astra Zeneca Oxford vaccine jab by a British Asian doctor who took the time to talk to her, and listened to her and thanked her for her service as a midwife for 40 years. That these few minutes were the happiest time in 10 months for her mother. It also showed she says the very best of this country.   ...

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At Stuyvesant, the most selective of New York public schools the student body is 74% Asian, 19% WHite, 3% Latino, and 1% African American. Mayor Blasio of New York is using the Discovery Program to limit the entry to the program which accounts for about 5% of the overall admissions to kids from schools that have a poverty rate of 60% or higher instead of to economically disadvantaged children in the city.  Two views are presented here. One that of the New York schools chancellor, Richard Carranza who says "I just don't buy the narrative that any one ethnic group owns admissions to these schools." Mayor Blasio of New York says that only 10% of Black and Latino students get offers from the specialized high schools even though they account for nearly 70% of the city's high school population. The other view is that the state is failing in its secondary schools system because New York state tests show only 47% of the city's third through eighth graders proficient in English and 43% in Math, with the number for Black and Latino students dropping to 34% for English and 25% for Math. This means about half or two thirds of New York state's school children cannot read proficiently and the numbers decline with socioeconomic conditions. Even Mayor Blasio is working at the fringes as the problem is deeper and needs to be fixed at another level than by tweaking which segment of the economically disadvantage children should have access to the best schools such as Stuyvesant.   ...

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A draft of the "Common Vision of the World Bank Group," posted online by Government Accountability Group provides details on how the World Bank sees its mission in 2013. The question relates to what the World Bank's mission should be in a world where develping countries such as China and India have made signficant progress. The fragile and conflict ridden states in Africa and in parts of Asia and Latin America will be critical parts of this mission. Yet a lot remains to be done in China and India, and the World Bank sees its role as facilitating the development of needed infrastructure in India and efforts to control pollution in China, better manage the growth of cities in both countries, and also work in the poorer parts of Europe such as Greece. World Bank president Kim sees the World Bank working with the private sector to ensure that infrastructure projects have "a transformational outcome" to help improve incomes of people struggling to join the middle class.

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Chancellor Merkel's now widely quoted words were made in Munich on May 27, 2017, after a NATO summit meeting in Brussels and a Group of 7 meeting in Italy, in which she was disconcerted by U.S. president Trump's positions on NATO, Russia, climate change, and trade. These words "the times in which we could rely fully on others - they are somewhat over." Merkel added "This is what I experienced in the last few days." After the election of Emmanuel Macron in France, Merkel expressed great relief at the outcome of the French election with Macron winning about two thirds of the vote, setting the stage for the election in Germany after several months of difficult watching and waiting. Now there is new confidence in Germany shaping its own future, with France and the rest of the European Union without Britain. Merkel says she "experienced this" meaning that she had undergone a transformation in these few months, and visibly in the last few days. She was also sending a message to Germans and people of the European Union - "we have to know that we must fight for our future on our own, for our destiny as Europeans." This also complements tactically to form the approach of Germany and France at the leadership of the EU, as French president Macron said at the end of the Group of 7 conference that multilateralism was intact, and the U.S. and EU shared many common goals.   ...

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The situation in China with recent rural migrants shown to be different from the migrants from rural areas in the earlier phase of development after the opening in 1990 under Deng. The overnight eviction of recent rural area migrants from Beijing, referred in official documents as "low-end population" leaves this segment of the population (about 90 million) facing uncertain future. The previous generation of rural migrants were seen as more stable as they could farm and had connections to the villages and rural areas. The new migrants lack connection to villages and have little experience working on farms. They were born since 1980, and are seen in party documents as a new generation of migrants. The earlier generation had seen the upheavals of the Cultural Revolution and memories of poverty, and were focused on basic needs.  The new generation of migrants is more dissatisfied, has more education but of lower quality, some were left behind in rural areas by parents who migrated to cities, and men in this group face a lack of women partners because of the one child system and decline in female births. Two thirds of these migrants are unmarried and the men lack the income to pay what is called a reverse dowry of having an apartment and a car to attract women for marraige. The governing party sees this new group of $90 million which has no access to subisidized education and health care under the resident "hukou" system as a source of instability in urban areas of China. ...

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On March 20, reports show that the testing facilities in states in the U.S. have had to set priorities on who gets tested first. High risk areas identified by authorites come first. For this reason Corlado health authorites moved a test centrer in Denver to Telluride a ski community that has been hard hit. In Minnesota health department commissioner identified priorities and limited testing to health care workers, inpatients at hospitals and people in group living facilities. A backlog means tests can take 5 days in Colorado, and Colorado has capacity for 250 tests a day (March 20). Testing was centred first by the U.S. government at the Centre for Disease Control. On reconsideration the state and local authorites, private companies, were allowed to conduct the tests, to speed things up. But local areas in many cases lack supplies or enough test kits and protective gear that is needed. This WSJ report says that the Trump administration is also shifting their strategy to social distancing to contain the outbreak. The federal government says it is aware of shortages in chemicals used in the tests. New York City officials say they have testing capacity for 5000 people per day, and New York State Governor Cuomo says the state can test 6000 people per day. (March 20). ...

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France, Germany, Italy, Spain and Britain agreed to have automatic exchange of information for offshore accounts to fight tax evasion. Luxembourg agreed to join this group. The EU nation move follows the U.S. Foreign Account Tax Compliance Act of 2010 which requires foreign banks and entities to disclose accounts of U.S. citizens, in an effort to fight tax evasion.

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In Biden's favor the midterm elections showed that for all the concerns about that election Mr. Biden navigated each situation well drawing support from all segments of the population. There was much skepticism about the passage of legislation to invest trillions in chips, science and infrastructure, Yet by winning two key votes of Manchin and Sinema president Biden got the job of investing in America done. The Inflation Reduction Act also kept the president's priorities for helping the average worker and families. At the outset of his campaign for 2024 president Biden faces low ratings. Nate Cohen points to lower support from non white voters. Yet when one looks at the 2020 elections and the last midterm elections it is clear that America is moving back to the days when white voters in all income groups support of the Democrats remained strong. The Obama period could be a temporary situation of Democrats having lost their anchor in manufacturing communities and trade unions as well other segments of the population, depending on 90 percentage points of minority support to pull through. Biden is headed back to the days of Wilson,  FDR and Truman, when whites less educated or more educated gave their support to the Democrats. This makes independent voters crucial and Biden's appeal has to be based on how much he can deliver to voters in infrastructure, in jobs and in hope- the prospects of America for the younger generation. Economic prospects of America can further improve in 2023-2024 as Biden's program for Investing in America moves forward rapidly.    ...

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The suicide of celebrity chef Anthony Bourdain who had a popular television program, brings new attention to the increase in middle age suicides ages 45 to 64 in the U.S.  The CDC figures show a 60% increase for women and 37% for men between 2000 and 2016. A clinical instructor in psychiatry and medicine at Cornell, Ms. Boardman says life satisfaction is low at this age,a dip in satisfaction called the U curve. A 2016 study in the American Journal of Preventive Medicine  shows stress factors as problems with intimate partners job/finances, health, family, and criminal/legal problems.  The demographic group driving suicide rates up is mainly white people without a 4 year college degree, who have done poorly compared to that group in a previous generation, say experts at Columbia University. 

Generally isolation and loneliness is also a factor, and social connections a big antidote to depression type stress.

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How to deal with Bush era tax cuts is a big issue dividing Democrats and Republicans in the U.S. If no deal is reached by Jan 1. taxes on the average middle income family would increase by $2000 in 2013. Median inflation adjusted income declined 8.9% to $50,054 in 2011 from $54,999 in 1999, and economic mobility has fallen. The Democrat's position is for Bush tax cuts to apply to incomes below $250,000. Peter Orszag of the Congressional Budget Office and Jared Bernstein point out that while this makes the tax code move in a progressive direction it also creates handicaps in providing a sufficient revenue base to support middle class spending programs down the road. According to the Tax Polcy Center, if Congress is unable to reach agreement and all tax increases go into effect Jan 1, taxpayers in the bottom 20% of income distribution would see a $412 increase in taxes compared to an increase of $633,000 for the top 0.1%. New York Mayor Bloomberg has supported eliminating the Bush tax cuts for all groups, saying there is no free lunch. Alan Krueger, head of the White House Council of Economic Advisors, says the trends caused by globalization and skill-biased technological change which have increased inequality are likely to continue or accelerate. ...

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A new generation of young people born between 1995 to 2012 get the name iGen. It makes up 24% of the population in the U.S. San Diego State University Prof. Twenge describes this group of young people as open and tolerant but very casual about most things, and not literate in comparison to the Millenials and previous generations of young people. They are tolerant to LGBT and transgender, not church going,  and at the same time can be intolerant of other opinions than their own. One of four students in this group says someone who says something insensitive about race can be fired. This group also does not try to look deeper to obtain a better understanding. Virtual relationships are preferred to social relationships. They tend to spend about 6 hours on technology devices such as smartphones and social media outlets. They interact less and yet do not find time for reading, and read much less than GenX or Millenials, or baby boomers. Twenge says they are less informed about current events and their academic skills lag behind that of Millenials. Not that this is a good place they have found, as the more time they spend on the internet the worse they feel. Making them less happy than other generations of young people before them who had face to face interaction instead of endless hours on social media. The reviewer is skeptical of what is happening here, saying that the use of technology devices in this way has stunted their development in ways one could not imagine possible. Not let them develop the skills of previous generations of young people who did not have these devices and lived a simpler life with face to face interaction. ...

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Romney received the vote of 6 out of 10 seniors, and a majority of the over 40 age group. He did poorly with the 18-29 age group. He received only 8% of the black vote, 29% of the Hispanic vote and 25% of the Asian American vote. Republicans did well in the 2010 elections for the House of Representatives showing that a decent support from minorities and a sense of caring for ordinary voters including younger women is part of the winning mix for Republicans. The sharp positions on immigraton taken by Romney hurt him with Hispanics. His work at Bain Capital and perceptions about caring may have hurt him further with minorities and young people, creating a skewed picture in the national contest compared to contests for the House, Senate, and for Governors.

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Bill Gates resigned his seat on Microsoft Board on March 13, 2020. This report in the WSJ looks at the situation at Microsoft in late 2019 when members of the Microsoft Board hired a law firm to conduct an investigation in late 2019 after a Microsoft female engineer's letter. This was a company that Gates founded and which expanded through acquisitions of other smaller companies.  The same day he resigned his seat on Berkshire's Board led by Warren Buffett. Mr. Gates started Microsoft in 1975, was CEO till 2000, and chairman till 2014. He then turned to work with his Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation.   Microsoft has market value of $1.8 trillion, Apple a value of $2.1 trillion.  The Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation has assets of $37 billion income of $53 billion, and the personal assets of Bill and Melinda Gates have an estimated value of $130 billion. One of the mistaken assumptions is that any one foundation such as the Bill Gates foundation has the resources, knowledge, technologies, expertise and leadership to tackle problems that confront large countries such as the US, India, or a bloc such as European Union. Imagine some billionaire taking on the role of a Franklin Delano Roosevelt in tackling the Depression or a billionaire tackling the problem India faces today in public health. It is only governments of the US, India and large nations such as the UK that can pull together the resources needed and the cooperation needed between its industrial base companies to achieve goals for public health. This type of effort can pull together resources of trillions of dollars that no one company or billionaire or group of billionaires can put together, and pull together massive resources of engineers, scientists, and other people across hundreds of companies that cannot even be measured. This is one of the lessons of this pandemic because the WHO was left with the job of handling the pandemic and governments of US, France, UK, Germany, India, Russia and leading nations had retreated from their essential role as guardians of the public interest in people's health and left much of the task to others. As they reassume this role this needs to be given a firm and solid footing and lessons learned. ...

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AstraZeneca PLC showed a net profit decline of 8.3% in fourth quarter 2011, on sales that remained stable at $8.66 billion compared to $8.62 billion in the prior year quarter. AstraZeneca is facing competition from low cost generics and cuts in government health care spending similiar to the rest of the industry. The company has announced new job cuts of 7,300 job for 2012, which brings total job cuts to 30,000 for the last 5 years. Most of the job cuts are in the U.S. and Europe. Hiring has continued in emerging markets leaving the net job cuts over the last 5 years at 9,600. Of the 7,300 job cuts planned for 2012, 2,200 will be in R&D departments, 1,350 in manufacturing and 3,750 in sales. AstraZeneca is changing the way it will do research and development with these changes. It will close the neuroscience research laboratories in Sodertalje, Sweden and in Montreal. It will have in its place "virtual" neuroscience units, small groups of 40-50 researchers working with academic groups and scientists outside to utilize the best science in the field. This is one of the most radical changes in R&D practices among pharmaceutical companies. In marketing the approach has shifted from having full time sales people call doctors offices to using online marketing tools and telemarketers. This approach is also being adopted for emerging markets....

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A group in the Tory party of prime minister Johnson sees a bigger risk for Britain in allowing 35% content in nonsensitive parts of Britain's 5G network as approved earlier. Tory views have changed since the coronavirus crisis and after the U.S. government decision on May 20 to require a government approval before U.S. companies can sell any semiconductors made abroad with U.S. technology. The use of other alternatives increases the risk for Britain, say Tory MP's. The National Security Council met to reconsider the earlier decision and called for a reassessment.

Britain would be left out of the Five Eyes Club of intelligence sharing with the U.S. if it does not also exclude Huawei from 5G networks. Mr. Trump says the U.S. will not share intelligence with Britain if it continues with the earlier decision.