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IBM is one of the companies that have stated publicly its intention of investing in its people while other companies are cutting back, but a reality check shows that IBM is quietly conducting its own layoffs. IBM reported strong quarterly profits in January, but announced layoffs of 1400 people in its sales and distribution division the day after CEO Palmisano reassured employees in an email message. In many of these smaller scattered layoffs there is very little notice to employees. IBM has cut back employment in the US which is at 115,000 employees and expanded overseas which is closer to 300,000 employees, see the graph.

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Close to half of the respondents in the 2010 Annual Survey of the American Chamber of Commerce in Shanghai, say that they face regulators who show a preference for domestic companies. About 80% of respondents said their operations were profitable in 2010. In 1999, 58% of Shanghai members of the chamber said their profit margins were below worldwide levels. In 2010, 78% said their profit margins matched world levels. Just under half of the respondents said they feared a negative impact from China's effort to build "indigenous innovation" and encourage domestic champions in each industry. 63.1% of respondents say regulations are getting worse or staying the same. Chinese President Hu on a state visit to the US in January 2011 is presenting the idea of a level playing field for American companies.

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Davies points out the dire situation of Greece's banks as the negotiations are called off and Greece calls for a referendum on July 5, 2015. In the week before the referendum if Greeks take out the 60 euros a day that they are permitted to withdraw from banks, the banks may have barely enough cash for the 3.5 billion dollars needed to do this. Only the emergency funding line from the ECB stands between Greece and the collapse of its financial system, says Davies. He says full banking union with depositors insurance, resolution authority, and other changes are needed to protect weaker banks in the eurozone. Contagion effects could affect Portugal's Banco Commercial Portugues, Italy's Monte de Paschi, and Austria's Raiffieisen bank, says Davies.

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The Chinese government is concerned that lack of a safety net, fears about a general access to health care, and lack of other assistance for the farmers, elderly, rural poor, lack of unemployment protections and welfare, all are making Chinese to cramp up and spend less. Chinese households save a quarter of their income in normal times, now unless the government steps in a big way, which it has done only in small faltering steps, savings will increase even more in response to fears about the future. Lu Mai, secretary general of the China Development Research Foundation, says China has reached a point where it has to make a big decision, does it spend more on security and the police or on social benefits. He put out a report last week which estimates the government needs to spend 2.6 trillion yuan or 380 billion dollars by 2012 for the first phase of a social safety net. With a further spending of $838 billion dollars by 2020 to complete the improvement of health care, education, pensions for the elderly, low income housing, disability benefits, unemployment protections and welfare for the poorest. And these estimates may be low depending on the assumptions made, as the situation has taken a steep descent from the time these estimates were probably made. In the last few months tens of millions have been added to the jobless, and the severe drought has created a difficult situation on the farms in rural areas, even while millions of migrants return to these rural areas as businesses dependent on exports collapse in cities in coastal areas. What is the government allocation at this time? A target for health care overhaul of $124 billion was set recently. But the actual stimulus package is heavily skewed in favor of infrastructure and investment in construction. About 1% of the big stimulus package that was announced goes to health care and 7% to public housing. Says Zhuang Jian, an economist with the Asian Development Bank, this excessive investment in infrastructure, heavy industry and manufacturing will cause serious problems, if there is not strong consumption to match it. And Eswar Prasad of Cornell University, who was head of the China division at the IMF, says that an ambitious agenda is needed for higher social spending to take away the fears of average Chinese about the future. Chinese premier Wen says the government needs to do more, but the instincts of China's planners, and decades of development with built in incentives for promoting investment in construction, infrastructure and industry, have left China with huge unsustainable underinvestment in basics like education, health care and social benefits....

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The problems facing first time home buyers of lower credit scores, a member of the household unemployed, and student debt. This lowers prospects in the housing market in 2013-2014.

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In a speech on June 6, 2011, Fed chairman Bernanke says "monetary policy cannot be a panacea." He points out that monetary policy can only do so much, in effect reducing expectations that the Fed can by itself tackle the problems stemming from the economic crisis of 2008, the overleveraging of the U.S. consumer and the banking sector, and the problems in housing. A Labor Department report shows 13.7 million unemployed in April 2011, and 3 million job openings at the end of April 2011. Bernanke forecasts growth in the second half will be "uneven" and frustratingly slow for reducing unemployment.

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Raghuram Rajan, former chief economist at the IMF, and William White, former head of the economics department at Bank for International Settlements, both see the need to raise rates. But expert opinion on the other side sees the need for caution as the economic outlook worsens, and supports ECB and US Fed's efforts to counteract a deteriorating economic situation.

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Tyler Cowan says slower growth in India is a troubling sign in 2012, and as significant if not more than the eurozone crisis. A less mentioned and major problem is the low productivity in agriculture, and he points to Japan, Taiwan, and S. Korea where major increases in agricultural productivity preceded successful industrialization. With growing population and continued growth India will be one of the largest economies in the world. The other major problem is shortages of energy supplies and the inability of state owned company, Coal India, to upgrade technology and increase output.

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Much of the impact in terms of unemployment is the shift to part time workers. The number of people who have los hours or cannot find full time work jumped by 1 million in the last 12 months to 5.3 million. A typical worker mentioned here is a baggage handler who worked the night shift but was asked to take a much shorter 4 hour day shift as airlines cut flights and shrink their fleets.

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The U.S. Treasury Dept reported that Japan's holdings of Treasurys increased to $1.12 trillion in August 2012, compared to China's holdings of $1.15 trillion. Japan increased its holdings as it continued its effort to stem the yens rise. China's holdings are declining.

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American manufacturers are importing more of the parts that go into each product. According to Susan Houseman, a senior economist at the W.E. Upjohn Institute in Kalamazoo, Michigan, the imported portion for these parts is up to 25% from 17%. Even the Bureau of Economic Analysis figure of the share of GDP coming from manufacturing is overstated, says Houseman. That figure was 11.2% for 2009, but is closer to 10.5% if all the imported components are included instead of being counted as domestically made. This is down from 14.2% ten years ago, and about 30% in the 1950's. There is deep concern that the manufacturing decline has weakened America. Houseman says that one cannot separate manufacturing from innovation, and she asks if America can continue to be strong in R&D with a shrunken manufacturing base. James Jordan of the Interstate Maglev project, says Maglev- which uses special magnets to levitate and propel high-speed trains- was invented in the United States. Today equipment for that technology is manufactured and used in Japan, and innovation in high speed trains is taking place in Japan and Germany. The decline in manufacturing is shockingly large. From 1979 employment in manufacturing went down by 8.1 million to 11.6 million, with the largest drop occurring in the last ten years. With it America is losing something significant- all the knowhow and skills that go into making things. Today the airplane wings for several Boeing airliners are made in Japan and shipped here. In a not too distant past these wings would have been built here, and workers with the knowhow and skills for these critical components were part of Boeing's workforce....

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Galston points out that what has changed between 2008 and 2016 for Hillary Clinton is that she faces more left leaning voters in the Democratic primaries. Yet he says Sanders has not been able to get the huge turnout of first time voters in Iowa comparable to Mr. Obama, which is needed to give him the advantage over Clinton.

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A German reporter questions the value of the G20 meetings following the violence on streets at the last Hamburg meeting. He says the first G20 during the global financial crisis was useful but later meetings have not lived up to the hope for discussion and search for solutions to world problems. Global trade is at the top of the agenda following the tariffs dispute between China and the U.S. Divergent interests of participants are a problem. Would going back to G-7 in private meetings be a solution asks this reporter.

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Chnages to Mexico's labor laws passed in Congress and to be signed by president Calderon include companies having to pay only one year of back wages to laidoff workers for lawsuits on unfair dismissals. The law also formalized part-time work and temproary training contracts. The effort is likely to foster greater formalization of the workforce and push fewer workers into the underground economy. About 29% of Mexican workers are in the underground economy, where worker protections and legal benefits are lacking. Also made part of the law an yearly audit of union finances and election by secret ballot for unions. Mexico's large public sectors form a core base for support of the newly elected PRI government.

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Job loss nubers for 2009 from the Labor Dept are- February 681,000, March 699,000, April 539,000 as govt payrolls expanded by 72,000. About 8.9 million people work parttime, adding in the people who have given up looking for a job, the underemployment rate is 15.8% in April 2009.

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The Trump administration proposes a zero policy for Iranian oil imports which says the U.S. will grant zero exemptions to countries importing Iranian oil.  Big importers China and India are likely to resist this policy.