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China's total public debt was 95% of GDP in 2022, Japan's was 62% in 1991. It's population aging faster than Japan's with population declining in 2022, Japan's declining in 2008 twenty years after its bubble burst. China's per capita income at $12,850 in 2022, compared to Japan's at $29,000 in 1991. China is facing more difficult headwinds than Japan in many ways. There is also higher tension in trade relations with US and EU limiting export growth. There is also the policy stance of the Communist Party that sees rural areas left behind with about 35% people in rural areas and Xi is slowing growth to reduce disparities and housing construction led speculative growth. In Japan urbanization was 77% in 1991, compared to 65% in China today. 

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China's Producer prices declined by 3%, Consumer prices flatlined, and imports and exports are both down 6.2% in September 2023. Growth is expected not to exceed 5% in forecasts by IMF and others.

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Samuelson points to the risks to the American economic growth from excessive health care costs. This is hurting take home pay and shows up in consumer spending. It is hurting government spending in other areas such as needed infrastructure spending and efforts to reduce the deficit. This hurts private capital investment to create jobs because of lower demand from constricted consumer spending. The U.S. budget has as its largest single expense 27% on health care compared to 20% on defense the next largest expense, with growth in health care spending taking this to one third of the budget in coming years. Without addressing health care, says Samuelson, the Supercommitte in Congress even if successful at deficit reduction will basically have failed to do its job, and it did not have the time, resources or conviction to do this. According to a new study from the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD), U.S. healthcare spending per person is $7,960 per person in 2009. This compares with Norway $5,352, Britain $3,487, France $3, 978, an OECD average of $3,233. Life expectancy in the U.S. is 78.2 years, compared to Japan 83 years, OECD average of 79.5 years. Chile and the Czech Republic have life expectancy equal to the U.S. Except for cancer care where the five year survival rate is 89.3% in the U.S. and the OECD average is 83.5%, the U.S. lags far behind in much needed critical areas such as diabetes and asthma. Rates of emergency hospitalization for asthma are 3 times that in France and 6 times that in Germany and Italy. The U.S. has fewer doctors per thousand population and higher cost per medical procedure- with more frequent use of the costliest procedures- creating a supply shortage that induces higher prices, and less preventive and early action care through physician visits. The number of practicing U.S. doctors is 2.4 per thousand population in the U.S. compared to 3.1 per thousand for the OECD average; and number of annual doctor consultations 3.9 per capita in the U.S. versus 6.5 for the OECD average. Appendectomy cost $7,962 in the U.S., $5,004 in Canada and $2,943 in Germany. Coronary angioplasty cost $14,378 in the U.S., compared to $9,296 in Sweden, and $7,027 in France. Knee replacement cost $14,946 in the U.S., $12,424 in France, and $9,910 in Canada. Knee replacements, angioplasties and MRI exams are twice as common in the U.S. compared to the OECD countries. ...

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The Obama administration's proposed budget for fiscal 2013- for the year beginning Oct. 1, 2012- shows the budget deficit for the year at over $1 trillion. It shows new revenue of $1.7 trillion over 10 years mostly from ending the Bush period tax cuts on families earning more than $250,000 a year, restoring the estate tax to the 2009 level and limiting subsidies for oil and gas companies. It proposes raising the tax rate on dividends from 15% to as much as 39.6%, for households earning more than $250,000 a year. This measure is expected to generate $206 billion over 10 years. The budget also offers "principles" for future tax reform by proposing the Buffett rule replace the Alternative Minimum Tax (AMT). The AMT was not indexed for inflation so it has the weakness of putting more middle class taxpayers into AMT, leading to temporary solutions by Congress. The Buffett rule would have people earning more than $1 million pay a tax rate of at least 30%. Many wealthy Americans like Mitt Romney paid lower taxes using deductions to lower tax rates- Romney's tax disclosures show he paid effective tax rate of 14%. The White House says the budget will reduce the deficit by $3 trillion over 10 years through the new taxes, and small changes to Medicare and Medicaid and other spending cuts. This is in addition to the $1 trillion in spending cuts agreed to in a deficit reduction agreement in 2011 between Democrats and Republicans in Congress. The budget proposal proposes investment in education and transportation projects of $137 billion, and continuing through Dec. 2012, a tax break for businesses to increase investment. It includes mandatory spending of $2.7 billion for new community college programs, $6 billion to modernize schools, and $1.8 billion to make homes more energy efficient. It also increases the resources of the Securities and Exchange Commission and the CFTC (two agencies overseeing the banks), $26 million for a new Interagency Trade Enforcement Center to counter unfair trade practices, and cuts U.S. postal delivery to 5 days a week. The result is a program designed to be balanced in terms of economic fairness, making modest investments in the future for education and energy, continuing policies to stimulate growth, and extending the date for bringing the deficit under control to 2018 instead of 2014 as planned earlier....

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Sternberg points out that China's banking system lacks the experience in consumer credit and consumer finance products that would provide the impetus to a surge in consumer spending in China for imported products from the US or Europe. Outstanding consumer credit in China is only 13% of GDP, according to a 2009 study by McKinsey and Company, compared to 48% in Malaysia and 70% in S. Korea. China has lost a decade or more he says in allowing foreign banks to develop a consumer-finance market, and Chinese banks have little compettitive pressure to serve lower income consumer borowers. The Dutch PPF Group was allowed into this field for the first time in November 2010 to introduce in-store financing for durable goods purchases, something available to consumers in Brazil and other developing countries for many years. Large banks have an entrenched mindset to lend to businesses, and especially to state owned enterprises which have the collateral and government guarantees and support to obtain this lending. Risk averse banks in a financial system that lacks the kind of credit ratings system for consumers that the US and Europe have, prefer to lend to make loans to state owned enterprises where the government guarantees the loans. Interest rates on deposits are low and the government deliberately allows a wide spread for the banks so that they can ensure enough earnings to pay for non-performung bad loans, both from the last decade and from the binge in stimulus lending in 2009-2010. This reduces consumption by reducing the earnings on savings for consumers and households. These problems can only be solved gradually if the government and leadership want to change course, but this oddly enough is not happening. Other problems are that China's export factories are part of a global supply chain in which other countries do the product development, logistics, marketing, and retailing. Chinese firms lack the experience in these areas to shift to domestic consumers. As a result, says Sternberg, to lose a foreign customer can mean going out of business. Without government leadership and new direction through large scale re-allocation of capital and labor to the small scale businesses that serve consumers in the domestic market, all the talk of rebalancing will be just that, talk only and no real rebalancing....

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The SEC requirement that companies disclose the ratio between median worker pay and the pay of senior executives. The SEC says it is putting out the rule as part of implementing Dodd-Frank legislation to control excessive executive pay. Companies will be allowed to survey a fraction of their workforce as appropriate for companies with global operations. Executive pay will include pension benefits and stock options under the new rule. A WSJ chart using information from the University of Southern California and the Bureau of Labor Statistics, shows the ratio between what CEO's on average make and rank and file workers make remained at about 30 times in the post war period till about 1970, a period of rapid growth in the U.S. economy. By 1980 this climbed to about 60 times and exceeded 100 times by 1990. The period of stratospheric growth for CEO pay and extreme widening of the gap then occurs between 1990 and 2000. By 2000 the dot com boom- telecom boom and the internet- creates a surge in executive pay reaching over 500 times. This drops to about 280 times in 2008 and picks up again to reach about 320 times in 2011. Many of the poor business practices, the excessive leveraging and risktaking in the financial industry, take place against this background of excessive pay for senior executives. Some of that risk was passed on to others through such methods as securitization in the period leading to the 2008 financial crisis, so that executives were compensated with higher pay for taking excessive risk that they personally or their companies did not assume. Dodd-Frank legislation following the 2008 financial crisis sought to correct this imbalance by having pay information disclosed. The excessive pay has also coincided with an increase in the frequency of boom-bust cycles in the economy. The busts prompted the needs for intervention by the U.S. central bank, the Federal Reserve, to drop interest rates more than would otherwise have happened during this decade, culminating in the huge bond purchases and monetary easing by the Bernanke Fed. The SEC under Mary Jo White is mindful of these distortions in the economy as a result of misallocation of resources based on excessive executive pay, and the need to take action before the next crisis. ...

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The Labor department reported that unemployment surged to 10.2 % in October 2009. 190,000 jobs were lost in October 2009. Ther breakdown lokks like this. Construction lost 62,000 jobs, manufacturing lost 61,000 jobs forming the bulk of the job losses. Its interesting to note that only 16,000 jobs were gained in the federal government and 16,000 jobs were lost at the local government level making the net gain zero at the government level. And what was gained in the health care sector 28,700 jobs and in educational services 10,700 jobs for a total of 39,400 jobs was completely offset by 39,800 jobs lost in retail sector. The useful point here is that local governments are hurting and retail sector is hurting and little is going to change this as long as job losses continue and the gains at the government level and healthcare and educational services are simply offset by losses inretail and local government. This situation will likely ocntinue into 2010. The losses in manufacturing are likely to continue. A sample of companies like Eaton, Boeing and John Deere shows that 2010 will not generate many jobs. Eaton has decided to have its 55,000 employees take aweek of each quarter, so there is one twelfth work capacity unused which is where Eaton will turn to before hiring. At Boeing there are layoffs of 10,000 planned but its also hiring 3800 workers for anew factory in South Carolina, and at John Deere 452 workers will be recalled in November but in December there is aplanned shutdown. A September Survey by Business Roundtable found that 13% of firms planned to increase employment in the next 6 months, but 40% planned to cut payrolls. So manufacturing looks to go on like this in 2010 with slowing but continued job losses. The numbers show that in October the median number of weeks it takes to find ajob up to 18.7 weeks which is the highest number since the sixties. What gets ignored by the small print you find it in the Wall Street Journal is the broader unemployment rate which is 17.5% when you include those who have stopped looking, those who work part time but need full time work and the marginally unemployed. The rates jump for younger workers here and in Europe also. ...

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How the French health care system works. France comes in first and the USA 37th in aWHO health care ranking. THe difference in deaths from respiratory disease is half that in the USA, and lower rates of death from heart disease and diabetes. IT has more hospital beds and doctors per capita than the USA. 65% of French people are satisfied with their health system compared to 40% in the USA, and yet France spends 10.7% of GDP on health care and the USA spends 16% for poorer results. THe French system is more generous to its seniors. Unlike Medicare there are no deductibles, just modest co-payments that are often dismissed for chronically ill. And diabetes and critical surgeries are covered 100%. French also buy supplemental insurance like Medigap for extra expenses like dental and eyglasses. Cancer patients are treated free of charge. Avastin treatments costing $48,000 a year are provided at no charge. France's PMI or Protection Maternelle et Infantile, is rated highly. It is anetwork of thousands of healthcare facilities, that ensure that every mother and child in the country receives basic preventive care. Mothers even receive afinancial incentive for attending their pre and post natal visits. France makes this care affordable by reibursing doctors at a much lower rate. The average yearly net income for doctors is around $55,000, about athird of what doctors in the USA make. But French doctors don't have to pay back huge student loans as medical school is paid for by the state and malpractice insurance premiums are only a tiny fraction of that in the USA. And again the French government pays two thirds of the social security tax for most French physicians- which is typically 40% of income. So the $55,000, is more like $92,000 taking that into account and more like $110,000 when student loans and malpractice is taken into account at US levels. Specialists who have 4 or more years experience can charge what they want, but as one gastroenterologist says, there in an unspoken and undefined limit to what you can cahrge or what is socially acceptable. Yet even in France there is inflation in health care costs that the government deals with through price controls and more spending. The French national insurance system is running increased deficits each year and this is now $13.5 billion, and it has led to higher taxes for employers and workers. ...

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Petrobras and the discovery 200 miles offfshore of the Tupi field with estimated reserves of 5-8 billion barrels of light crude oil. As Brazil is self sufficient in energy with its own ethanol industry helping substitute ethanol for oil at the pump, it can become a major exporter with this find. However even with Petrobras technology and expertise in offshore drilling its a challenge as the oil is 4.5 miles below the oceans surface, and involves drilling through 7000 feet of water and 17000 feet of sand rock and massive salt layer. Cost could approach $20 billion according to analysts with current inflation in oil drilling rig costs. It involves challenges like building floating liquefied natural gas plants. Gabrielli, the Petrobras CEO thinks Petrobras has the expertise to develop it on its own. If oil majors are given the chance to join in the development the investment terms will be ones that favor Brazil. Gabrielli pointed this out saying that Brazil had already incurred most of the risk in exploration offshore so the oil majors have far less risk and Brazil should invite them only on its own terms if needed. The Tupi field puts Brazil ahead of Canada in oil reserves and in the leagues of China and Nigeria, with new Brazilian reserves at 17.2 billion from the 12.2 billion barrels currently. Brazil has invested in refineries with 2 new refineries coming up in 2010 and 2014 to increase refining capacity by 40%. It is also investing to convert heavy crude oil into diesel and $8.6 billion to reduce sulfur at 11 refineries. The Tupi field will take about 7 years to develop. Similiarly the Kashgan field in the Caspian in Kazakhstan is also in difficult in this case icy and gases filled environment that will take years for a Eni led consortium to develop. When oil does come will the demand situation have changed with new conservation taking hold in the developed world and the cars in developing countries more like the Tata Nano at 54 miles per gallon consuming less gasoline? Even with increase in energy needs of developing countries, improved efficiency and new technology for conservation brought into developing countries could if not significantly reduce, at least moderate demand. To the point where prices drop from $100 a barrel to something more affordable to developing countries....

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Interesting when 53 economists were surveyed by the WSJ 51% attributed the rising fuel prices to demand from China and India, only 15% attribute it to supply constraints, and 15% attribute it to foreign exchange issues and 11% attribte it to speculation. That is that 3 times as many economists think demand from China and India is the culprit compared to supply constraints, and twice as many economists think foreign exchange speculation and central bank issues are the cause than supply constraints. Why? Once you remove this outsize demand from China and moderate the growth there then the supply constraint does not become so critical. In previous years declining prices made exploration less attractive or the fact that price was not stable going up and then coming down making it difficult to invest based on a stable return. Now the basic component of additional energy for countries like India and China's people increasing demands could be accomodated within existing and new supplies coming onstream, without the red hot demand component of growth rates at above 10% and close to 10% in India and China exacerbating prices upto some current estimates of $200 per barrel. In effect the price spikes would reverse the demand growth, and the essential needs of more people needing everything from electricity and fuel and gasoline to improve living standards in China and India at a moderate pace would prevent oil prices from falling to levels that make aggressive search for new oil finds and increased production from more difficult locations unattractive. This would correct the previous imbalance where exploration at low prices near $30 or $40 a barrel and uncertain price levels made for little new exploration while consumers were on a consumption binge in the use of gasoline which created this present situation. And in future oil at sustainable price levels would make it easier to meet the needs of poorer people in countries like China and India as more aggressive growth resumes at some future date after this expected worldwide slowdown. So correcting the previous and current imbalances helps to create a better situation in the future to better meet the hopes and expectations of millions of people in the developing countries for better nutrition, better electricity supplies and other needs of modern living....

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Amazing! Just fresh from the foreclosure crisis and as the worst of the foreclosures are taking place between now and 2009 for subprime and other loans homebuilders and home sellers are financing the 3% downpayment required by FHA for loans from the is government agency. What do they hope to accomplish sell homes and have the government foot the bill when these homes also go into foreclosure in a downturn? Already above average default rates for seller assisted down payment programs will make this government agency the Federal Housing Administration ask for a government subsidy for the firtst time in its 74 year history. The FHA will need $1.4 billion next year. FHA estimates that down payments provided by nonprofit groups account for 34% of all 200,000 loans backed by the FHA so far this year, up from 18% in all of 2003, and less than 2% in 2000. And FHA says that borrowers are 2 to 3 times as likely to default on their payments when they receive a down payment from a nonprofit. The reckless manner in which homebuilders are selling these homes is unbelievable, more so in today's difficult economy. See the ads for these homes in this WSJ article and its is shocking. D.R. Horton is advertising 100% financing for 2 and 3 bedroom homes near the beach in Maui, costint $498,000, and a Seattle area builder Quadrant corporation is advertising townhomes for $500 downpayment. Use your coffee budget says a online promotion in the St Louis area! And though the risks are known to housing officials in the government they face a battle from well funded and coaltition of homebuilders, lowincome housing and minority groups. though its hard to understand how a home that ends in foreclosure for a low income group or minortiy group can benefit a minority group. Yet the Black and Hispanic caucus, people in Congress like Maxine Waters and Barney Frank still think it does as they continue to support the lobbying that keeps these kinds of loans going. Two examples given here of a Dick Whitmore and a Gloria Harris one saying it was impossible for him to come up with the $5000 downpayment and the other saying she was living from week to week suggest that they are likely to end up having difficulty making payments. ...

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It took a long time for the banks to understand what is in their best interests is in the best interests of the country's economy and homeowners, something Sheila Bair has been saying since the beginning of this year and implementing at IndyMac. Its just too costly for banks to use the foreclosure process to recover their money and it makes much better financial sense on the bottomline of banks and for the economy to make home payments affordable. Because the worse home prices get the worse the economy and banks do and nothing drives home prices down like foreclosures. The Bank of America settlement for Countrywide with state attorney generals to modify loans for 400,000 homeowners because of predatory lending practices also set the direction. Chase Bank is now using the Bair template to get the monthly payments down to an affordable level which is about 40% of the current payment by reducing interest rates and using a smaller loan balance and keep homeowners in their homes. Chase's plan will help 400,000 homeowners and will also help homeowners who are having difficulty making payments. It will put a 90 day hold on foreclosures till the program is put in place. Yet there is one problem. Only $350 billion of the 1.5 trillion in home mortgage it services are owned by Chase, the rest are owned by investors in the form of mortgage securities. It can do little for homeowners covered by these securites that are owned by hedge funds and other funds as a few of these funds oblivious of the overall interest including their own have threated to sue if loans are modified, and it would take some time to figure out who owns each security and what the terms are for modifying loans for that security. Its this part of mortgage securitiization that has slowed down a rational process of unwinding this problem throughout housing by making homeowners monthly payments affordable. And Fed's Bernanke did not come to grips with this point in his talk about mortgage securitization to UC Berkeley on October 31,2008, that mortgage securitization done in a way that make loan modification difficult is dangerous as it is today, and makes a crisis bigger than it otherwise would be, and turn a USA crisis into a global crisis through ricotcheting effects and a series of bad decisons....

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ECB executive board member Peter Praet, says that the oil price drop could mean negative inflation for a large part of 2015. He told German financial newspaper Borsen Zeitung, that inflation could be lower than the 0.7% forecast by ECB economists. The risk is that businesses would be reluctant to invest in such an environment. Praet said the danger is that businesses and households would reduce their long term growth expectations and adapt to low growth and low inflation. For the ECB the question will be has it done enough to avoid this.

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In 2015 the new government of Antonio Costa took a U turn from austerity policies followed in return for a bailout from the European Union. This has helped Portugal achieve the highest growth in a decade coming back from a severe slump. Unemployment is cut in half with growth in the tourist industry, and investment in agriculture, construction, aerospace.  Traditional industries such as paper mills and textiles have invested in new technology resulting in a boom in exports. German companies Bosch, Mercedes Benz, and others have also invested in the country. Portugal has a good relationship with Germany and the European Union which has also helped attract foreign investment. Prime minister Antonio Costa says "too much austerity deepens a recession and leads to a vicious circle." Antonio Costa came to power in 2015 on promises to reverse cuts in income made by the previous government to reduce the deficit in exchange for a 78 billion euro international bailout. The government backed by left parties left out of government since 1974 with the collapse of the dictatorship, was able to increase public sector salaries, the minimum wage and pensions, over objections of the IMF and the German government. Incentives were given to small business in the form of tax incentives, development subsidies and funding. Budget balancing was achieved by cutting expenditure on infrastructure and other spending, cutting the budget deficit from 4.4% when Costa took office to 1%. A surplus is planned for 2020, ending a quarter century of budget deficits. ...

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The IMF's World Economic Outlook in March 2008. The IMF Outlook has been behind the curve in looking ahead at the world economy. The IMF chief economist Simon Johnson cut the baseline forecast cut its US growth forecast by a percentage point since its January outlook, its now at 0.5% for 2008 and 0.6% for 2009. But thats when the Fed minutes already show the discussion about a" severe and protracted recession " in the USA, so it looks like its a bit late and after the fact. And some experts expect a contraction in the US economy this year. More indicative is its forecast of the European economy which is not as upbeat as the OECD estimates and suggests that the ECB may be more receptive to monetary easing and lowering interest rates because of lower growth in the Euro region. IMF sees eurozone growth at 1.4% in 2008 and 1.2% in 2009. Germany and France are expected to grow at 1.4%.

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What were the stories in the Economist magazine that were the most read stories of 2019? Not on president Trump. On Malaysia, China under Jinping, and exodus from San Francisco and Silicon Valley. The most read article was on the newly elected president of Brazil, Jair Bolsonaro. The mismanagement of the economy particularly extravagant state spending on the Olympics and soccer stadiums for the World Cup at the expense of basic sanitation services, bus and transport services, health services, led to the result of a majority of Brazilians rejecting the Workers Party and its leader former president Lula. Unfortunately most of the media including the Economist did not draw attention to this gap. During a period in which income from mining with export of iron ore, and soyabeans to China, enabled Brazil to live beyond its means, there was no effort to draw attention to glaring gaps in development of public services such as sanitation, bus services and transport, lack of building infrastructure other than to support mining. Glaring gaps in education and health services made the situation worse. The second most read piece in the Economist  was on March 10th- Malaysia's PM is about to steal an election. Here the Economist magazine joined the Wall Street Journal which originally broke the story on the 1MDB fund and irregularities in Malaysia where a development fund was misused by the government. Najib actually lost that election and the WSJ covered the story of the developments that followed in which Malaysia's new governemnt led by a returning former prime minister in his nineties Mahathir Mohammed, ousted his own protege Mr. Najib.  The third most read piece in the Economist magazine was - How the West got China Wrong.  Unfortunately the Economist magazine and most of the media covered China in the two decade long boom years without covering the other emerging story as well in which Mr. Lighthizer (now president Trump's top trade adviser) and others questioned the huge unsustainable trade surpluses in U.S. trade with China. With the economy facing huge downside risks and rising trade tensions with the U.S. Chinese president Jinping's move to remove the limit on terms in office in the Constitution was considered a shift from the notion that China was likely to turn into a democracy. Mr. Jinping had already completed his first term in office and the anti-corruption campaign, managing the economic boom for a soft landing, was carried out with the central leadership of the party, after the destabilization evident in the early part of Xi Jinping's first term. Much of China's path was predictable and rational behaviour in its national interest, what was not clearly defined or defended was the way the U.S. could sustain the trade deficits that had reached a billion dollars a day. Leading to Mr. Trump seizing on this as an election issue to form a bloc of voters separate from the two main parties, the Republicans and the Democrats. The fifth most read piece was on Oct 11, 2018- the next recession. It pointed out that with low interest rates central banks in the U.S. and Europe and America could not cope effectively with a recession. The sixth most read piece was on June 29, 2018- Bullshit jobs and the yoke of managerial feudalism. It cited Prof. David Graeber of the London School of Economics, who wrote a short essay that went viral on the prevalence of work that had no social or economic reason to exist, work he called "bullshit jobs". Graeber said people want to feel they are transforming the world around them in a way that is leading to a positive difference. No. 7, 8, 9, were on Bitcoin, Netflix and programming language Python. No. 10 most read was on Aug. 30, 2018- Why startups are leaving Silicon Valley. It showed that in 2017 more people left the county of San Francisco than entered. The main reason the cost of living was burdensome and out of control. As Amazon shifts attention to India and Brazil, and Apple pulls back from India, social media companies coming under fire for disinformation, this period of Tech is making way for a shift in a new direction. A direction that focuses on people's lives, wages, spending on much needed infrastructure and services. ...

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King Charles 3 day visit to Germany. It is the first state visit by a British monarch in 8 years and the first for Charles. There is a ceremonial welcome at the Brandenburg Gate, a first in Germany. In Hamburg he visits St. Nikolai Church, a ruined church kept in that way as a memory of the Allied bombing of the city in the war. It was designed by an English architect George Gilbert Scott. This is the serious kind of role the king might enjoy says the BBC. It is being compared to Queen Elizabeth's visit to post independence India in 1961 and her visit to post apartheid South Africa in 1995, Ireland in 2011. It brings the message of Britain through Charles showing its connection to Germany and to the European Union at a time when the US and the European Union are coming closer together with the shared values, and the common history, systems of representative democracy founded in Britain.