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Spain's budget deficit as a percentage of GDP comes in at 6.7% for 2012, according to government figures. This means Spain is making significant progress in bringing down its deficit to reduce borrowing rates. This gives the government more flexibility with austerity measures at a time of rising unemployment estimated at 26%.

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US Trade Representative Tai and India Commerce and Industry Minister Piyush Goyal will meet in New Delhi November 22-23 on Tai's visit to New Delhi, Seoul and Tokyo to strengthen trade and investment ties for Indo-Pacific region. Following Modi's meeting with Biden in Washington DC the discussions with Tai will reconvene the India US Trade Policy Forum in 2021, and push forward with the negotiations for the Investment Incentive Agreement to increase investment in development projects in India. All aspects of investment, trade and industry will be covered as India builds a closer relationship with US in its drive for economic development that also strives to achieve goals for renewable energy.

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US economic growth surged at a rate of 6.5% for the April to June period in 2021. This pushes the economy beyond its pre-pandemic size. Growth was lower than the 8.4% forecast of economists, yet strong enough to increase its size to exceed the pre pandemic level. It was powered by the business reopenings, vaccination drive, and the government infusion of pandemic aid to households and business. New restrictions after this summer for coronavirus following last year's pattern with extensive summer tourism and spread of coronavirus, could again slow the economy. Government infusions of aid aided consumer spending, and this could slow in the months ahead, and lockdown restrictions could limit growth.

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Increased maritime and defense cooperation as Dominic Raab, UK Foreign Secretary visits India and has talks with Jaishankar, India's External Affairs minister. For the UK there is no stronger partner than India looking east, says Raab. India, UK and Australia form a core of the British Commonwealth of nations, an idea that brings together the English speaking world in Asia and Africa. After Brexit Britain is free to form its own relationships based on its history, and links of culture and language. Boris Johnson will visit India in January 2021.

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The automobile market in the U.S. showed strong sales for Chrysler, Ford and GM in November 2011. As a result automakers expect to sell 12.7 million vehicles in 2011, 10% higher than 2010. The average age of vehicles in the U.S. is 11 years, and this is leading to more buyers coming into showrooms. Some of this demand was for prickup trucks and SUV's. Ford Explorer sales tripled from the prior year. Ford sold 26% more trucks and 9% less cars compared to the prior year November sales. Sales of Jeeps went up 50%. GM sold 31% more pickup trucks. In the past sales of trucks and SUV's slumped with rising fuel prices and a slower economy.

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The breakup fee of $4 billion and the $1 billion in "book value" of spectrum AT&T is giving to T-Mobile as part of the fee are part of the cost of the failed acquisition of T-Mobile. Other costs are that this puts AT&T at a significant disadvantage in relation to competitor Verizon, because Verizon is at least one year ahead in bringing out its next generation LTE network. By the end of 2011 Verizon's LTE network will reach 200 million Americans compared to AT&T LTE coverage of 70 million. Apple's next iPhone in 2012 will be an LTE model. AT&T's network congestion will mean it will have to do more capital spending than Verizon in the years ahead. Verizon has early mover advantages from its early investments in LTE network. From 2008 through the first 3 quarters of 2011, Verizon invested $29.3 billion in its wireless network compared to AT&T's $28.1 billion.

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The jobless rate of 7.1% in Germany in April 2011, is down from 7.8% in the prior year. In the states of Bavaria and Baden-Wurttemberg, where BMW and Daimler are located, the unemployment rate is down to 4% in April. Jurg Kramer, chief economist at Commerzbank in Frankfurt, says this could lead to higher inflation. Inflation went up to an annual rate of 2.6% in April. The ECB raised the official interest rate to 1.25% in April, but Kramer says the rate appropriate for Germany is more like 3%. The euro is rising with expectations that the ECB will raise rates further. The euro was at $1.49 on April 28, 2011. Kramer also cites some factors that could slow inflation and wage increases in Germany- most union wage contracts continue till 2012, and the change that allows people from Eastern European countries such as Poland and the Czech Republic to be easily hired.

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The story is an encouraging one as the president and bipartisan Congressmen persevered with courage and patience to invest in America. The story is told by Biden adviser Gene Sperling in the WSJ today Feb 16, 2024, and is on this page. The US federal Budget deficit rises to 6.1%  in 2025 from 5.6% in 2024, then slows to 5.2% in 2027 and 2028, going back to 6.1% in 2034. Because these projections depend on assumptions inflation, interest rates, wages, which may be different in actual numbers in future years the broad guage one can get is that the extra surge in investment of five tenths or six tenths of a percentage point of GDP help the US make the investments in an aging or crumbling infrastructure and in manufacturing, better technologies, not replaced since the 1950's or 1970's, is needed for economic growth and better living conditions for the American people. It is this investment that in trillions of dollars of spending under president Biden that has generated growth of 3.1% in the last 2 years compared to the recession in Germany, UK, France and otehr European countries. UK is the latest to fall into recession this month. Sluggish growth can also be seen in China with a bloated construction center hindering growth. The US is in abetter position after the pandemic than any other country with the exception of India. ...

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Jay Powell and the US Fed have less to worry about from China's increasing demand for oil in 2023 that could keep oil prices high, says this column in WSJ. China says Taplin, has over 50% of oil demand coming from the construction industry, heavy industry and the trucking that backs it up. The construction industry has problems from years of overexpansion, and heavy industry, manufacturing, faces lower demand for Chinese exports from the US and Europe in 2023. This means oil demand will not increase enough to keep oil prices high, says Taplin. This puts the Fed in a better position to tackle inflation, just as the decline in global shipping and spare capacity in shipping, supply chains returning to normal is helping the Fed.

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Mexican president Nieto's poll numbers are at all time low of 24%, according to Reforma newspaper. He took office in late 2012 and has been hurt by human rights scandal of the murder of 43 students in the state of Guerrero, corruption issues, and failure to improve the economy. The invitation to Trump to visit Mexico left even people close to the president surprised, and was criticized widely inside Mexico. It is not clear what Trump or Nieto gained from the trip. As Trump continued his talk about building a wall on the Mexican border and having Mexico pay for the estimated $23 billion it would cost. He did this in a speech to supporters in Pheonix on the same day he met Nieto, showing the use of teleprompters and prepared script was not his way of campaigning. Just as the message to black people that Democrats take them for granted cannot resonate without the basic message delivered with compassion and understanding- such as done by the presidents Bush and Reagan- so also the message to Hispanic people is suffering from the same lack of empathy. Recent polls show only 3% of blacks support Trump. McCain and Romney gained only 4-6% in the U.S. presidential elections of 2008 and 2012. The message of the wall is also baffling as an election strategy. A Gallup poll in July 2016 shows only 15% of Americans opposing a pathway to citizenship for illegal immigrants, and only 24% of Republicans. There is another problem in the strategy. The rhetoric about walls and mass deportations, and the Trump temperament combined with handling of nuclear weapons is not winning college educated women in the suburbs with polls showing Trump lagging behind Clinton by about 20 points or 4 million voters with this group. It is hard to undo the damage done by this kind of rhetoric used in the primary elections as it gains distrust of voters. It would require a bad economy with illegal immigrants taking local jobs, and handling of immigration seen as weak, for such a message to gain some national traction. Both are absent for the most part with a steadily improving economy since 2012, lower unemployment, a tough enforcement policy on deportatons under Obama that exceeded that under Geoge W. Bush, and the talk of a wall comes with illegal immigration having declined steeply since the 2008 financial crisis. The real culprit appears to be elsewhere, the triple hit taken from hollowing out of the manufacturing economy that hurt the Conservatives in Canada, the insecurity created for older whites from the job losses and hits to net worth from the 2008-2009 financial crisis, and the increasing loss of access to health care and educational opportunities with high  costs. About 62 million households or the bottom half of the distribution in the U.S. have a net worth of about $10,000, a quarter of this group having zero net worth, according to the Federal Reserve's Janet Yellen at an Inequality Conference in Oct 2014. Problems no wall is going to solve, problems that built up over 2 decades, problems that will take a generation to fix.  It shows the tech miracle of the last 2 decades as a mirage for quality of life of the middle and working class. Tech as a tool to a goal, not a goal in itself, is the better way forward. ...

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A series of actions by Ford to cut prices, Toyota to have no price increases, and Hyundai to invest $21 billion to Make in USA and similar actions by GM, mean that except for about 300,000 imported German VW cars the car market in the US will have no price increases for average Americans. Foreign media and media in the US that is misleading say there will be price increases in the US for cars after US tariffs on imports from Japan of 24% and on EU of 20%, South Korea 25%.  NHK Japan reports that Toyota will not increase prices in the US despite DJT Liberation Day announcement of 24% tariff on Japanese imports including auto imports. Toyota will continue to make the 3.12 million cars it makes in Japan as well as the employment, of which 586,000 are exported. Toyota says it needs to cross the threshold of 3 million domestic car production to keep its technological capabilities.  Toyota will also look at ways to increase US production.  Hyundai is planning investments of $21 billion in the US from 2025 to 2028. Hyundai is likely to follow Toyota and make no price increases till it ramps up American production to Make in the USA. Ford is cutting prices of cars under its From America For America sales program. Ford has 568,000 cars in inventory. It has 60% capacity and can ramp up to make up for VW cars that are priced higher to give American buyers of German cars a cost effective option.  ...

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Bad loans in Spain's banking system reached a high of 8.16% of total loans by banks in Feb. 2012, according to the Bank of Spain. The total amount of bad loans was 144 billion euros.

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Bondholders and the Greek government are stalled in talks and waiting for Germany and the IMF to come up with the 14.5 billion euros that is due on March 20, 2012. It may suit the bondholders holding out for a higher interest rate in the 4-5% range for the new bonds to be issued at 50% of face value with long term maturities, but is bad for Europe. This Journal editorial points out that this is bad for European taxpayers and points to other steps that can be taken which are being discussed in European circles. One step is for acollective action clause to be inserted for the existing Greek bonds under which all bondholders have to accept losses if two thirds of the bondholders agree to accept losses. To ensure the safety of the Greek banking system Greece would restructure the bonds held by Greek banks so that they continue to be acceptable as collateral with the ECB, and issue new bonds to the ECB with face values, interest rates and maturities matching existing holdings. The idea is to make it possible for Greece to reduce its total debt and its debt servicing costs- which is really the only way out of the crisis. The ECB and Greece would use the collective action clause to restructure the Greek debt to reduce interest and debt servicing costs on new bonds to be issued. The Journal editorial says it should also mean Greece and the ECB are not required to put up the 30 billion euros in up-front cash that was agreed to in a poorly devised agreement in 2011....

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The impact on the Republican party in 2012 of reform governors who came in with the 2010 U.S. elections- Christie of New Jersey, Walker of Wisconsin, Brownback of Kansas, Snyder of Michigan, Daniels of Indiana, Jindal of Louisiana and other state governors from Maine to Tennessee.

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China takes another step to curb inflation. Effective May 18, 2011, China's largest banks will have a 21% reserve requirement. Food prices were up 11.5% in April. There were a larger number of bank loans in April 2011, of $112 billion, and a larger trade surplus of $11.4 billion. This may cause banks to lend in ways that go around these requirements, say experts. It may also ration capital to the entrepreneurial sectors of the economy.

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Lightsquared which invested about $4 billion in developing a new wireless network is facing huge losses as U.S. regulators block the proposed wireless network. Federal regulators say it will interfere with Global Positioning System devices. Investors in Philip Falcone's Harbridge Capital Partners had provided most of the funding. Before Lightsquared Philip Falcone made successful bets against the subprime mortgage market. Falcone used lobbying firms to press his position, to no avail because the GPS issue was a serious one for the federal government, as it would interfere with aircraft systems and military devices. Harbinger's biggest funds have also lost money in other fields, losing 23-27% in 2008 and Falcone had to suspend redemptions by 2009. In that situation Falcone increased his investment in LightSquared in 2010-2011. In 2011 Harbringer lost 47% in its biggest fund. Harbinger's assets declined from $26 billion in 2008 to $4 billion by Jan. 2012. The S.E.C. is now investigating his hedge fund for possible market manipulation....

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Provo, Utah university shooting of Charlie Kirk on campus September 10, 2025. It has aroused the whole nation because it happened on campus while talking to students and debating issues. Kirk was founder of Turning Point a student focused organization that has worked on campuses all across the US since 2016 for debating alternative ways of tackling problems facing the US on issues relating to the Border, Jobs, cost of living and immigration.

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The new iPad coming out in March 2012 will be priced at $499, with the prior version being priced now at $399. Tim Cook, Apple's CEO, says the iPad sales in the 4th quarter of 2011 surpassed sales of PC's by any individual manufacturer. To give some idea of the impact Apple's sales of $9.5 billion for iPads in the 4th quarter were twice the sales revenue made by Microsoft for Windows software and close to the total revenue of Google during the quarter. This third generation iPad looks like the previous one. It has an A5X quad-core chip for faster processing and a higher resolution screen with 2,048 by 1,536 pixels. The new iPad also works on the new cellphone network technology called LTE. It works on AT&T and Verizon's networks. Users can dictate e-mail on this device.

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China's Liu He's meetings with Janet Yellen in Jan 2023 at Davos and other locations are helping to stabilize economic ties between China and the US. Liu He is economic adviser to president Xi of China.

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The number of people employed in foreign firms in Hong Kong declined by 25,000 to 468,000 in 2023, according to Deallogic. Foreign advisory firms face crackdowns and are declining rapidly. Yet companies have not yet pulled up stakes in China.

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Hungary's president Orban visits Ukraine and mets Zelensky for peace talks. Hungary's has assumed the presidency of the EU in 2024. He suggests a ceasefire from Ukraine first to bring a settlement to the war.

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Pennsylvania is one of the critical states in the 2020 U.S. election. It is also one of the states hit hard by the coronavirus. Pennsylvania has also seen the impact of layoffs in the vital steel industry during two decades of neglect by previous administrations till the tariffs on steel from China by president Trump began a reversal of this trend. Unemployment is high in Pennsylvania as a result of the pandemic. 51 of 67 counties in the state recorded unemployment rate increases for 2020 that are in the top 20% for the U.S. Pennsylvania and Michigan are two critical states for the 2020 election. Pennsylvania has done much worse than other states including Michigan when it comes to the impact of the pandemic on unemployment rates in all counties. Voters could decide to blame the Democratic governor for lockdown restrictions  that worsened unemployment or president Trump for his approach to the coronavirus. There is also concern among conservative voters about the kind of change they seek between steady improvement in unemployment and a shift to radical changes in the economy. ...

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Where do you place a winner of the Democratic primary in Maine, Graham Plattner, an oyster farmer who dropped out of college at George Washington University, served briefly in the Middle East wars of Bush and Obama, and had PTSD. Is he working class, middle working class or is he from a downwardly mobile professional class considering he has parents who are well educated and father a prominent lawyer in Maine? Plattner easily defeated a 3 term governor of Maine with his average working class demeanor and language. He is for universal health care, (Medicare for All) universal child care, affordable housing, affordable college. Politics in the US has been moving away from the simple divisions before 1950 created by the Industrial Revolution- the workers in factories and the owners of capital allied with the professional middle class. The few owners of capital mostly college educated allied with people from the non college educated workers in factories who are conservative in their values and beliefs and on the other side the college educated professional middle class now downwardly mobile because of the many recessions and high unemployment from frequent financial crises, with college costing $80,000 a year putting them in deep debt. There is today in the WSJ a story of a professional worker who at $194,000 a year salary is not able to payoff $15000 debt which owners of capital have set at 26% interest and is in downward spiral. Some of this comes from large college and other debt. There is says WSJ Analysis $1.25 trillion in credit card debt alone with highest delinquency rates in decades in 2026. Cost of living has only made things worse and some of this happened as Biden poured money into the economy to help people hurt by the pandemic, yet with some short run consequences with demand strong businesses including hotels, restaurants and grocery stores, auto dealers, jacking up their prices by over 20% in 1 year and Biden failing to respond, getting overwhelmed by open borders migrants under Mayorkas and Harris (also hit by a sudden Venezuelan migrant influx). This is the America one has today- a confusing mix. This in reality means Democrats may take issue with Democrats, Republicans take issue with Republicans, and Democrats join with Republicans on issue by issue basis. It might actually be rational than irrational. On cultural issues if the country has gone over its head and moved too fast on some issues that are not for the general public good, people of different backgrounds can come together to get the best path. On economic issues things are never so straightforward, there are unpredictable consequences and the rules of economics are really not so straightforward either.  Providing relief can mean the government shouldering the burden as during the pandemic which it should, yet with caution as businesses can use the excess demand to raise prices and one is back to square one with everybody worse off as happened with Biden. Migrant flows and fears of insecurity in public spaces can lead to a severe public "discomfort that can waylay the best intentions of a Harris or Biden, leading to public "backlash." In fact the title of a recent book is "Whiplash." Current books include Floridan Marco Rubio's "Decade's of Decadence- How our Spoiled Elites Blew America's Inheritance of Liberty, Security and Prosperity." Rubio means it. Its authentic because as Rubio says repeatedly, his parents could make a living in the 1960's working in a factory with decent wages, low cost of living and low cost of college, the arithmetic between salaries and what you needed for decent home in suburbs and sending children to good public schools, then to college, all adding up. The result is that Rubio could go to college and serve in the Florida legislature. Rubio says in 2026, after the elites under Bush and Obama and faulty economic theory shipped all of our factories to China, that the story of his parents and his education would simply be impossible. This is what he told people in India on his first visit last week. His parents were Cuban immigrants, yet he identifies with Spain and with western civilization, a devout Roman Catholic. Rubio is a Republican, and is in large contrast with Alejandro Mayorkas, also from Cuba, and Biden's Head of Homeland Security. This is the mix of people and representatives in Congress,  business people, small business owners, professionals, that we have today in 2026 in the US. Plattner and Rubio, one a Democrat and one a Republican- both have something in common. Plattner also has general disdain for "the corporate interests, the billionaires, the Washington DC elites, and the establishment politicians."  The winds are blowing in the direction of getting things right- remembering that Eisenhower continued the work of the Kennedy and LBJ administrations (Eisenhower built the Interstate Highway System for instance, and LBJ gave America Social Security and Medicare). Before that Franklin Roosevelt a Democrat built on the work of his uncle Republican Theodore Roosevelt (TR gave America the idea of good governance and built the US Navy, FDR fought the Depression and stabilized a faltering economy after mistakes made by Republican Herbert Hoover could have happened even if Hoover was a Democrat. FDR was himself from a wealthy New York family and when he first met fellow New Yorker Frances Perkins before his struggle with polio, a haughty New York gentleman. That was before Frances Perkins as FDR's Labor Secretary joined forces with Roosevelt to give New York a modernized administration governance structure by 1940 that was applied to all 51 states after 1950. It allied labor with capital with fairness for all, and was the first such modern structure of this size the world had ever seen, which was the fundamental strength of the United States of America. It was imitated in Asia, first in the Shanghai region then China, and first in the Ahmedabad region and now India. The US is faced with the challenge of recreating and rebuilding this today, as first China, then India remind America of its roots which they have followed in their own style and culture.  First good governance, then good institutional structures, alligning labor and capital with fairness for all, strong affordable + accessible educational and healthcare systems, and investments of capital and labor for infrastructure + industrial development. ...

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Ranil Wickremesinghe of Sri Lanka, both Finance Minister and Prime Minister during this economic crisis, says to The HIndu in this interview- "It's hectic, this is a new experience. I am working eight days a week." He says he will firm up the staff level agreement with the IMF by June. Then he says comes the debt restructuring plan that gives a clear indication of what Sri Lanka has to do. By July there will be also the interim Budget.  He said "I must say that Indian assistance has helped us get through these difficult times." He says in addition to the $3.5 billion he is hoping to get another $500 million assistance for fuel. On austerity path Sri Lanka faces he says we have agreed with the IMF that vulnerable groups will have to be supported. He said if we look at what are called tough conditions, even if the IMF were not there, we would have to do it. The advantage of going with the IMF, you get something or everything. If you were to do it on your own you get nothing. On austerity he said yes there has to be austerity but we want it to be for the short term, so that even if 2023 will be a difficult year, in 2024 we can start moving. On the Adani investment of $500 million and Mr. Modi, he says  that he emphatically welcomes it. We need it at this moment and it is a good sign that investors are coming in, said Wickremesinghe. Look he said if anyone else in India wants to invest another $500 million I am not objecting. He said Sri Lanka needs to use its potential for wind energy which is big. ...

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Most of Kennedy's supporters who were Democrat leaning have gone back to the Democratic party and Harris. Only the ones remaining are likely to support Trump. Some of them are vaccine sceptics, the one issue on which Kennedy initially opposed Biden as he was against the vaccination campaign that Biden implemented to get America back on to recovery and on its feet again. The former president Trump also made light of the vaccination campaign and in doing so weakened the response to the Covid pandemic that destroyed 1 million American families. Only the vaccination campaign with full government support and educational effort on the importance of getting vaccinated made it possible for America to recover by 2021.  Hear this America- more lives could have been lost, million more without an effective vaccination campaign.