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A look at the history of the founding of Pakistan and the 60 years since, looking all the way back to Muslim League's activities in the 1930's under Jinnah, and the failure of politicians and the military to help build Pakistan and improve the lives of its people. One by one the generals and the politicians, including Ms Bhutto and Sharif, have all failed and the dim prospects that it would be different this time with a new elected government.

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Tim Lee has predicted the collapse of the Turkish currency Lira for 7 years in his investment newsletter. Like other economists who saw warning signs in Turkey's overdependence on foreign capital to finance credit and growth, Lee found himself ignored and lost clients as the Turkey boom that benefited Mr. Erdogan party continued.  The doubling of tariffs on Turkey's steel has finally focused investors minds on the situation in Turkey. These figures are sobering- about 70% of Turkey's economy is dependent on foreign loans denominated in U.S. dollars, according to the IIF, the Institute of International Finance. The loss of the currency Lira's value by 70% in 2018 means that the dollar denominated loans made by Turkish banks to businesses in Turkey will be harder to pay with revenue made in Lira. Another startling statistic is that American investors own 25% of outstanding Turkey's bonds, and about 50% of publicly traded Turkey stocks. The deterioration of relations with the U.S. is more likely to lead to investors focusing on this aspect of the Turkish situation and pulling back.     ...

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This report in the WSJ on a Gallup study with 87,000 interviews points to Trump supporters being affected more by racial isolation and cultural anxiety, health prospect anxiety,  than merely by being working class or in lower income groups affected by the shift in manufacturing jobs overseas. The report confirms previous observations that these Trump supporters are more likely to be whites without bachelors degrees. The information does'nt show that they face abnormally high degree of economic distress as those who have lost jobs in this recession, as they are shown to be less likely to be unemployed, more likely to be self-employed. The Gallup study does not show areas more adversely impacted by trade competition to have higher support for Trump. This is a critical finding.  An interesting finding is that Trump supporters are more likely to live in areas with higher mortality rates and poorer health outcomes, higher obesity rates, and lower rates of intergenerational mobility. This combines with living in much higher rates of being surrounded by whites, whiter and more racially isolated. The finding is that they have high cultural and economic anxiety from not finding their well being and prospects for children meet expectations. This may also explain the tendency not to be able to reason out possible outcomes based on policies of each candidate, less openness and more inward looking behaviours.   ...

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India's prime minister Narendra Modi addresses a joint session of the U.S. Congress on June 8, 2016. The close ties between India and the U.S. were enhanced by the good personal relationship between U.S. president Obama and Modi. With a change in administration in 2017 both sides are eager to secure the foundations of the relationship, with India's agreement to the Climate Change Agreement, and other steps.

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Rattner looks with alarm at recent figures showing that of 2.65 million jobs created in the U.S. in 2015, only 30,000 were in manufacturing. He reflects on growth in manufacturing with the recovery in automobile manufacturing between 2009- 2013 - during this period employment in the U.S. auto industry went up by 23 percent to 690,000, and employment in Mexico's auto industry went up by 60 percent to 589,000, showing much faster growth overseas. Manufacturing has also experienced decline in private sector wages of 0.8% since 2009, with auto industry wages down 12.7 percent, says Rattner.

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China's push for globalization is being perceived internationally as an effort to promote its own industries.

Clashes with the U.S. on trade have changed the perception of China in global trade compared to what it was four years ago or in 2008. Tariffs in the U.S. on Chinese imports, slowing foreign investment, inflated property prices, bad debt at banks, and shrinking working age population, are leading to slowing growth which in coming years could drop from 6.1% in 2019. The Belt and Road Initiative is also being perceived differently as it has led to increased in indebtedness of countries in Africa and Asia, debt that cannot be paid back. Much of the ebullient optimism of a few years back is no longer present. The Pew Research Center survey of 34 countries in December 2019 shows about 45% of adults surveyed lacking confidence in China's policy positions in world affairs, according to this report in the WSJ.

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Everything one needs to know about Brexit. Most questions are answered here during the last minute negotiations on December 14, 2020, in a desperate effort by both sides knowing that no one is going to budge. The effort now is to say look this is going to hurt both sides during a pandemic, the public is going to be angry with the politicians one more time, which will hurt all sides. Britain joined the European Union in 1973 with Ireland and Denmark.

Britain has left the EU legally and politically. It is in a transition period till Jan 1, 2021 by which time the remaining questions on trade, on economic relations and security need to be resolved. This covers $800 billion in trade between Britain and the EU. If nothing happens to settle these issues Britain after Jan. 1 will no longer be part of the EU single market or its customs union. 

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Decades of investment in infrastructure and manufacturing have given China a strong grip on manufacturing. China's economy depends on exports with sluggish domestic demand. One economist in Hong Kong says Vietnam is the key, if tariffs are placed on Vietnam it will be tough he says, because Chinese goods enter the US from third countries.

In 2025 China's world trade is imbalanced to an extraordinarily large degree, hurting thriving manufacturing communities around the world, and depends on a concentration of port logistics, manufacturing and lack of fair trade practices, that allow $3.5 trillion in exports while taking in only $2.5 trillion in imports. By 2008 America was waking up to this, DJT actually flagged it a decade later, Biden realized this, in the second term what appears like a whirlwind 100 days is really action on many fronts that is coming one to two decades late. 

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Analysts fear an oil shock in 2012 similiar to that in 2008. There is similiarity in the situation now and in 2008- as in 2008, the surge in oil prices comes at a time of higher tensions with Iran and shrinking spare capacity. Spare capacity is at 2.5 million barrels a day on average for January and February 2012, according to the Energy Information Administration. This compares with 3.7 millon barrels a day for the same period in 2011. Part of the reason is that global oil demand is increasing in 2012 by 1 million barrels a day, to 89 million barrels a day. Technical and political problems have shutdown another 750,000 barrels a day. The problems begin to kick in during the second half of 2012. The U.S. ban on dealing with the Iranian central bank for oil trades starts in June 2012. According to the International Energy Agency, the EU embargo and U.S. sanctions will take 1 million barrels a day of Iranian crude out of the market. The result will be that demand exceeds supply by the third quarter by 1.1 million barrels a day, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration. Use of existing reserves in Europe, the U.S. and other countries will make up the gap. The effect will be to put pressure on oil prices. May Brent crude on the ICE Futures Europe exchange was up to $125.81 a barrel, on March 16, 2012, and prices for April delivery were at $107.06 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange....

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French trade unions protested against conditions at Amazon warehouses for safety during the coronavirus, says France 24. After a court decision Amazon closed all its warehouses in France till April 20. Amazon has come under greater scrutiny on this issue of worker safety and precautions both in Europe and in the U.S.

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Knight Capital's aggressive introduction of software with ony a short period between approval and implementation resulted in a wave of erroneous orders resulting in losses for the brokerage firm of $440 million. These losses were incurred as Knight Capital had to sell all the stocks it accidentally bought as a result of malfunctioning software that sent out waves of wrong orders on August 1, 2012. Knight accounted for 11% of the stock traded in the U.S. in the first half of 2012, according to TABB Group. It took 45 minutes for the New York Exchange to detect the problem, identify Knight Trading as the source and shut down trading.

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Theo Lubke was head of the Financial Infrastructure Department in the Banking Supervision Group, and was a key member working for reforms in the derivatives market. He oversaw efforts at the Fed to have Wall Street centrally clear trades in credit default swaps, which helps control the risk of a firm's failure. Lubke will join Goldman Sachs as a managing director in the securities division, and will help Goldman implement the facets of regulatory reform legislation. Prior to his 15 years at the New York Fed, Lubke worked on the staff of the National Economic Council under President Clinton, and worked as an investment-banking analyst at Lehman Brothers.

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Anil Ambani's Reliance Communication's is being investigated in India's Telecom scandal.The shares of his public companies have fallen by 50% or $17.9 billion since August 2009, according to an estimate by Bloomberg. A report by Kotak Securities Ltd, says Reliance Communications reported higher revenue numbers to investors than it showed to telecom regulators. This has led to a government audit of Reliance Commmunications. The market value of his publicly traded companies fell on Feb 9, 2010, by $2.9 billion, when an Indian accountants association questioned Reliance's finances that day. Total debt of Reliance Commnications, Reliance Power and Reliance Infrastructure Ltd, is $10 billon larger than cash and equivalents according to Bloomberg.

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Economists point to a limited impact of Fed chairman Bernanke's $600 billion quantitative easing program. Interest rates decreased but only for companies with top credit ratings. Northwestern University Professors Krishnamurthy and Jorgensen, say rates for households and many corporations- mortgage rates and rates on lower grade corporate bonds- have for a large part not been affected by the Fed's second round of quantitative easing. Another economist Mickey Levy, of Bank of America, says the move has boosted the stock market, eased credit conditions, and suppressed the dollar, but no one really believes the Fed buying Treasuries and bulking up its balance sheet can create permanent jobs.

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Banco Santander, Brazil, sold 600 million units at a price of 23.5 reais each, according to a filing with Brazil's regulator. With each unit representing 55 common shares and 50 preferred shares. The offering was increased from a planned 525 million to 600 million units so that investor demand could be met. Santander's US traded stock was priced at $13.50 each. Santander following a series of acquisitions is Brazil's third largest bank after Itau Unibanco and Bradesco, having a 10.2% market share. It is also the largest IPO for Brazil. The growing demand for emerging market securities is evident in the rate at which the Bovespa Brazil Index jumped in 2009.

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President Trump wants to see China lower fentanyl exports to the U.S. because of a worsening opioid epidemic. The trade disputes extend into areas that have no direct connection but affect the U.S. and Mr. Trump's commitment to tackle this issue.  This report says president Trump expressed dismay on this issue.