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The NYT's Kristof gives this exceptional report on the use of cancer causing chemicals all around us in many consumer products. With the increased use of chemicals has come the tripling of asthma rates in the last 25 years, leukemia up by 1% a year, increasing obesity, and breast cancer rates increasing from 1% in 1975 to 12% today with only some of it from better detection. Doctors at the Mt. Sinai School of Medicine in New York, say American girls who had puberty at the age of 17 in 1800, now have puberty at the age of 14, even 12. Earlier menstrual cycles increase the risk of breast cancer because of increased exposure to estrogen. Studies show exposure to pesticides, PCB's and other cancer causing chemicals increase the risk of cancer, and a link to early puberty. Asian women moving to the U.S. are also experiencing higher rates of breast cancer as they move to societies with higher use of chemicals in daily life, say experts at Mt. Sinai. Poor eating habits and lifestyles with less exercize are also to blame, but chemicals also play a role. Americans are moving towards shunning packaged processed foods for fresh food in their diet, and more are learning the benefits of regular exercize, but the same degree of public awareness is lacking for the extensive use of chemicals in our consumer society. In other societies around the world that are copying us such as in China, India and Brazil, the situation is even worse, with the spread of a reckless idea that modernization requires jettisoning health safety concerns. Even a simple pizza box has PFAC's chemicals made to make the box resistant to grease. In 2015 where products are labeled environmentally friendly by large companies to attract buyers and build the right image in the minds of consumers, consumers asking questions and making better choices make a difference by offering a seal of approval. Carpets have chemicals, and most disposable plastic containers contain chemicals that could seep into the food if heated. The use of plastic containers and microwaves is common practice in todays society, where less cooking is done on the stove than in the period before 1960. The sheer size of the chemicals developed since 1950 is staggering- more than 80,000 chemicals according to the Children's Environmental Health Center at Mt. Sinai. And this Center says less than 20% have been tested for toxicity. ...

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In a sign of the changes roiling the pharmaceutical industry the off patent business of American maker Pfizer is based in Shanghai. The generics business of Mylan Pharmaceutical is incorporated in Netherlands and run from Pittsburgh. Pressure is increasing in the generics industry from manufacturers in India and China. Pfizer announced the merger of its Upjohn off patent pharmaceuticals business with Mylan to fight pricing pressures. Pharmaceutical prices in the U.S. are the  highest in the world and generics offer only small relief compared to the government mandated pricing of the same pharma products in India. Generics drugs are also offered at lower prices by distributors who buy in bulk adding to pricing pressures in the U.S. The government rarely intervenes in the negotiated prices as it does in India or in other countries in Europe including Britain.  In fact many asthma patients young and old alike are forced to do without inhalers because of the exorbitant prices set by American manufacturers with scant help from government under Democratic or Republican administrations in the U.S. In this respect middle class customers in India have better access to asthma inhalers as well as hundreds of other medicines basic to healthy living. This has created a greater level of basic equity/fairness in India as well as in Europe in this regard than in the U.S.  In this sense the pricing of basic care medicines in the U.S. adds to the sense of a lack of fairness. To that is added the manner in which the banking and financial industry operated resulting in the financial crisis of 2009 and damage to the bank savings accounts of ordinary Americans hit by unemployment, underemployment, and lower savings accumulation with interest rates kept low to offset the damage done by the banks through bad lending. This is also why an astonishing percentage of Americans like never before in the last 50 years do not have basic funds for spending to manage a health crisis in the family. Just as in times of the Depression in the U.S. industry operates in a way that is oblivious to what ordinary Americans are experiencing only to be excoriated by FDR. ...

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Analysts and experts says Turkey faces a debt bubble like that facing Spain and Ireland. The budget deficits in Spain and Ireland were considered manageable before the banking crises in the two countries. Turkey's short term borrowing- most of the $221 billion in outside financing needed for the private sector in 2013 is in short term loans. The large current account deficit and rate of growth in credit approaching IMF warning indicators are a problem. Volatile capital inflows could reverse as investors look for safe havens with the continuing street protests in Istanbul. Earlier currency crises in 1993 and 2001 were currency crises from volatile capital inflows. Turkey's central bank is trying to manage this situation and has $100 billion in currency reserves. But it is the hidden buildup of external debt by banks and companies in Turkey that worries analysts like Richard Segal at Jefferies bank in London. A $400 billion public spending plan, over 50% of Turkey's $770 billion GDP, is being prepared by the Erdogan government for the 100th anniversary of the founding of the modern Turkish state in 1923, showing that the scale of public spending is not under control. Analysts say at some point the huge credit bubble will burst, as it has in other countries including Spain, where the central bank appeared to have things under control. The street protests add political risk to the increasing risk for emerging markets with the U.S. Federal Reserve's policy shift to increasing interest rates....

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Example of a aluminium company in Quingtongxia which disconnected from the national electricity grid and connected to the local electricity grid with the consent of the regional government to bypass the increase in electricity prices mandated by the central government in Beijing designed to discoutrage electricity consumption by energy intensive industries. As a result of this type of activity China has seen only a 2 % decrease in electricity consumption in the first half of 2007 by official estimates. To meet the goal of a 20% reduction in energy consumption per unit of output by 2010 China would have to see reductions in the range of 4% per year. This example of Ningxia Hui Autonomous Region is an interesting one. Ningxia is in the western region of China and unlike the coastal regions which were the early beneficiaries of China's manufacturing boom years, this part of the country lagged behind. Its near Inner mongolia and far to the north west of the country near Gansu province. its one of the samllest o the provinces and autonomous regions, having a population in 1949 of about only 1 million, its since grown with migration and indutrial development but is still lagging behind. It has plentiful coal and so it is felt here that this is a natural resource asset that would help it grow in energy intensive industries like aluminium and help it close the gap with the coastal proivinces. The industrial development came to Ningxia only in the last 10 years so that its local economy and regional government officials feel they would be left out if they aren't allowed to catch up. So to them it all makes sense. Several other factors play a part. The rapid economic growth means more opportunities for relatives and friends of regional government officials. This is happening across China in coastal provinces and in the provinces of the interior. How can senior government officials in the coastal and large cities in the east point a finger at hese offendors when they are all beneficiaries of the same system and are using it to their benefit. And then there is the factor that rapid economic growth is considered the main objective if it slows down and there is social unrest from unemployment or other worker or farmer unrest then all government officials and communist party officials lose out if the communist party loses control. And the fear of chaotic years following social unrest create a common interest in pursuing rapid economic growth at all costs. So its a roller coaster that while the leaders in Beijing and Shanghai and the big eastern cities are aware of the risks and costs to the environment and other costs they are not able to control regional and local policies and actions....

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Important year end reveiw of the oil price forecasting work of so many anlaysts and where they failed . The IEA and the US Enery Dpt forecast have year after year underestimated this pirce by over 20%. Analysts change the price forecasts within a couple of weeks based on changing information and assumptions. Of all this the Saudi Arabian forecasts have ben within 12 % of what has actually ocurred according to a study by Ronald Berger Strategy Consultants of Muich, Germany. And whats their forecast for 2008. By extrapolating from the Saudi budget and the assumptions, used such as giving a wide margin to avoid a deficit in the budget if oil prices undershot by a wide margin, one gets $75 for US benchmark crude. Forecast by experts are in the neighborhood of $80 average for the whole year 2008. Goldman recently revised theirs upwards from $85 average for 2008 to $95 within a 4 week period. How good is the Goldman forecast. No one really knows. Lehman has a forecast of $84 average for 2008 and bases it on the opacity of the market because no one knows what OPEC will do with supply and China does not provide good information on demand. So basically anlysts are adding an uncertainty premium to the price of oil. And this is especially so because as the Chief Economist at IEA says global space capacity is so thin and any event can influence price. Last year the rhetoric about Irans nuclear intentions was enough to stir up the price, as were other smaller events disrupting supplies. But the Iranian situation has since cooled down and diplomatic solutions are in the works. So what to expect in 2008 in the way of political uncertainty. Iraq, Iran, Palestine, Lebanon have all seen a cool off in the ast couple of years and the Bush administration rhetoric has become outmoded as has other rhetoric from Iran so that does'nt look like it will stir up oil prices in 2008. Still there will be some uncertainty premium about supply from OPEC and demand from China and India. And demand from the Middle Eastern oil producing countries themselves as well as the increasing demand in India and China will mean that lower demand in the US because of a recession will still mean an increase in global demand over 2007 of 1.5 million barrrels a day over 2007's 85 million barrels a day. What will change the dynamics of this situation is the government mandated fuel economy for all vehicles on the road with Europe more aggressive in this area under the pressures of global warming. If this impacts India, China and Russia as these fuel saving technologies are transferrred there overall consumption should see an impact. Europe's targets are only 4 years away for 2012. And the environment may cause China to bring in newer technologies that both contribute to improving environment and conserving energy. Because China's environmental record is almost catastrophic one could see some of this happen much sooner than expected after the Olympics in 2008. All that might change the way the world looks at oil and its use, and all energy sources and their use. ...

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The northeastern region of Brazil, the poorest region of Brazil, has benefitted from the economic expansion in Brazil. The region's GDP went up by 4.2% a year for the last ten years compared to 3.6% for Brazil. Bolsa Familia, President Lula's anti-poverty programme has benefitted the northeast, but the Getulio Vargas research institute shows three quarters of growth coming from earnings and expansion of export based agriculture in soyabeans and other products and from mining export industries. Projects in the northeast include development of the port and industrial area around Suape. A petrochemical plant, a shipyard and a Petrobras refinery, are under construction. A new railway will link Suape to the interior. Much of the development is for export industries in soyabeans and iron ore, and for the rail and port infrastructure that supports these exports to China. As a result the development looks similiar to what is happening in Australia with the huge expansion in rail and port infrastructure in that country to support iron ore and other mining exports to China. Any slow down in China will affect Brazil as the IMF has recently warned, because of an overdependence on commodity exports to China. Alexandre Rands of local Datametrica consultancy points to this when he says that infrastructure booms while helpful are not enough to sustain development. Big firms train the workers they need which is how Brazilian companies cope with a weak educational system. Schools in the northeast are however not getting the financial support to improve education, a situation that affects Brazil as a whole, but is even more evident in the northeast....

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In his second part of the series on Capitalism and Globalization Schieritz says Trump's arguments have backing, and goes back to the studies done by David Autor of MIT on the adverse impact of free trade on communities across the U.S.. Lyrarc has covered this issue since 2006, and the reality is that this issue was brought up long before the Autor study gained prominence. On Nov. 12, 2010 Robert Lighthizer, Deputy Trade Representative under U.S. president Reagan wrote an op-ed in the NYT titled "Throwing Free Trade Overboard," that made a strident and strong case for what Trump says 5 years later, and from no less than a top trade official under Repubican Reagan.Trump comes late to this in 2015 when it was already amply clear what was happening. It is not so much Trump having discerned this, than others who should have paid attention, including Lew and leaders in both parties, and the business community,  who for too long ignored it. Or as Hilsenrath in a recent WSJ report says, simply said we have seen this before with Japan's entry into the American market, not realizing the speed and widespread impact of the changes in trade with China, that are unprecedented in history- evident just from the great speed of urbanization and manufacturing work force growth in China, policy rapidly impacting vulnerable communities across the U.S. The corrective course has to be credible which is why it has to come from a a reawakening among leaders such as May, Merkel and Clinton, who are keen students of change, and capable of designing and executing a corrective course of action, and winning the popular support and patience needed to stay the course which could run for most of the next decade. It would also provide leadership and show the way for societies in Brazil, China, India and other countries facing similar problems.     ...

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Easwar Prasad, Cornell University economist, and a former head of the IMF's China division, says the new report by the World Bank and the Development Reform Commission (DRC), is part of an effort by government officials in China to push the agenda for change forward during the transition to a new leadership. This includes Premier Wen. There is pushback from large state enterprises. The DRC and the World Bank had called for a change from the current situation to allow more private sector involvement in the economy, which means restricting the growth of the large state owned companies and letting the private sector operate in more parts of the economy. The alternative is to see growth slowing quickly and -some economists- say suddenly without warning. The role of Zhu Rongji, a former prime minister during the period Jiang Zemin was president, in pushing for changes appropriate to the period, is also cited. The last decade under prime minister Wen Biao is seen as one in which China relentlessly pursued its currrent export led model of development with large state run companies and state run banks dominating the economy. This has made change even harder to achieve because of the pushback to preserve the status quo....

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This WSJ editorial points out that the current corruption drive in China is opaque and politically driven. Transparency International in its Corruption Perceptions Index shows China at 36 points having dropped by 20 places because of the lack of transparency in tackling corruption. Whistleblower protection should be part of an effecive drive says Transparency International. Also needed is an independent judiciary, free speech and the rule of law, institutions China has still to develop.

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One of the authors of the Massachusetts Institute of Technology study cited by president Trump, John Reilly, says president Trump in citing the MIT study showed " a complete misunderstanding of the problem." Reilly's view is that even the Paris accords are not enough, that it is one step, in his words "an incredibly important step," without which the next step cannot be taken. His view is also that the Trump White House may not be listening, so MIT does not plan to reach out to correct this view.

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David Segal takes a detailed look inside Apple's retail stores in the U.S. and talks with employees at different stores to find out what its like working as an hourly employee at an Apple store. World wide Apple's 327 global stores sold $16 billion in Apple products. Per employee the sales are about $473,000, but at an hourly rate of about $12 the average employee makes about $25,000 per year. After recent wage raises this could be up to about $36,000. The National Retail Federation says electronics stores have about an average of $206,000 in sales per employee. Contrary to what most people may think most of Apple's employees are not engineers and other professionals, about 30,000 of the 43,000 Apple employees in the U.S. work as hourly employees in the retail stores. Most are young people in the early 20's, single, with health insurance provided by Apple not costing as much for that age group. There is no career path and most leave after a couple of years. Because of the Apple mystique and the drive to create new user friendly products there are many young people looking for this kind of temporary work, especially now with high unemployment. ...

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Prime minister Modi cites the successful Mars mission "Mangalayan" as showing India's technological capabilities and its ability to do things speedily at very low cost. For foreign investors India offers a stable politcal climate because his party has an absolute majority in parliament and controls many state governments, as well as being a democracy with a vibrant and internet connected young generation. A young population with 55% of the people under age 35 makes India the manufacturing powerhouse of the next two decades, said Modi. And the consumer base of over 1.2 billion people an attractive market. It was a rare combination of hands on salesmanship rarely seen ever on television from a prime minister. In one exceptional response about the condition of women, Modi said he personally led his ministers and legislators through Gujarat state's rural areas house to house in 45 degree centigrade summer heat on June 11-13 school opening days. He did this urging parents to send their daughters to school with the slogan "Send your daughter to school, Save a Girl." The result he said was 100% school enrollment in these rural areas for girls. A rare person at a special moment in India's history pushing the goals of development with uncommon tenacity....

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General Electric Co. GE says CEO Jeffrey Immelt will retire and be succeeded by John Flannery in August 2017. Flannery is head of the healthcare business at GE.