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Pictures of the earthquake in Turkey in the NYT.

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IEA shows China in 2030 with 54% of mining and 77% of refining for rare earth minerals- a near monopoly. It is this monopoly that China is now using to negotiate with the US. Rare earth minerals are needed for many advanced technology products and renewable energy. This move by China to strictly restrict access to rare earth was not anticipated by US negotiators. US negotiatons with China relate to China's access to technologies, to the US market, and on the subject of fentanyl coming in from China to Mexico and illegally brought into the US. 

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Wind and solar tax credits to phase out end of 2027 instead of 2032 under Senate version of US Tax Cuts Bill. This gives less time for renewable projects in solar and wind to get these tax credits and places them in a difficult situation. Senator Tillis of North Carolina who voted against the bill plans not to run again. The 3B Tax Cuts Bill is being considered in Congress this weekend to be placed on president's desk before July 4th weekend. The generous subsidies of the Biden administration are being questioned by the new Energy Secretary Chris Wright.

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Drop in immigration reduces labor supply keeping the unemployment rate steady even as hiring cools off. Compared to the roughly 1 million in 2019 net migration was about 3 million in 2022 and 2 million in 2024. In 2025 this is now about a negative 250,000 or quarter of million negative migration. Out migration is expected at about 1 million. This means that about 35,000 non farm jobs created between May and July 2025 haven't increased the unemployment rate as fewer new workers join the workforce from illegal migrants. This has to have an effect for wages for the workers in construction and farm work as employers compete for a smaller number of existing workers though economists and the financial media rarely talk about this. This was needed following decades in which the labor supply increases from illegal migrants meant no pressures on employers to pay more than the minimum wage kept artificially low. This means that even well meaning Democrats who clamored for increasing minimum wage were doing exactly the opposite of what was needed for the existing worker base wages in construction, farm work, and household help, because of their sentiments or because of the immigrant wing in their party. Note that about a third of maids, a third of construction workers, and 25% of landscaping workers are not legal migrants. Agriculture Department estimates are for about 40% of farm workers to be without legal work authorization. ...

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The media fails to give a clear complete picture of effects, context, concept behind tariffs and AI won't know. Effects on inflation- June inflation is 2.7% compared to May inflation of 2.4%. The central bank head, Fed chairman Powell has not cut rates to gauge the effect on inflation with new data. Powell says the US economy is strong and inflation remains low. US Market access fee-The US and overseas media including WSJ has not pointed out that the tariffs agreed to by Japan, European Union and South Korea of 15% are really not tariffs but a fee these countries and their business sectors in major industries such as autos and machinery, pay to access the US market. DJT, USTR Greer, Treasury's Bessent expect these companies to not increase prices. Fairness: US had 2.8% tariff on cars EU had 10% since 1980's. Rebates will go to some income groups. Rebates- In the one third of products in clothing, shoes etc of the $50 billion in tariffs for first half 2024 where about 5% price increase is passed on to consumers as shown in WSJ report this is likely offset by rebates to certain income groups. DJT says- “The big thing we want to do is pay down debt, but we’re thinking about a rebate. We have so much money coming in from tariffs that a little rebate for people of a certain income level might be really nice.”     ...

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Lucy Powell Central Manchester MP elected Labour's Deputy Leader with 54% of the vote in 17% vote turnout. In a sign of the big changes in UK politics and economy Lucy Powell was fired by PM Starmer as leader in the House of Commons as recently as September 2025. Starmer clearly has not led the Labour Party in Britain in ways that would win the confidence of the people of Britain as demonstrated in a recent Wales by-election with Labour having only 11% of the vote after Reform in a previously safe seat.  Lucy Powell says about the lack of listening within Labour to the grassroots people and organization- “I think we often feel like our members and elected representatives are something we need to stand against or not value. They are our strengths. “They connect us to the national conversation. Instead of just telling people what we want them to do, we need to respect, value and include them more, and recognise that debate is not division or dissent, and recognise you have to take people with you and hear from broader voices, not just a narrower group of voices. “They haven’t felt they have been included and connected as they should in recent months, and that’s what often happens when you go into government. “I’m going to really help to do that, to re-engage with the party, and make them feel part of the conversation again. I’ll do that through working with Keir [Starmer], working with government, working right across the party in the leadership roles that I will have.”     ...

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US Russia relations improve in 2025. The new national security document of US put out by the DJT Administration says that Russia is not a threat.  It sticks to migration and western identities when facing civilizational erasure over next two decades as key threats to the US. It poses questions for the European Union, Germany and France, yet also offers away out of the "mess" in Ukraine with the Russians saying NATO was too close to their borders as the real issue, and the US not aligning itself with NATO reducing big power tensions including nuclear arsenal expansion. Germany rebuilding the Bundeswehr and it's military offers a rebalancing of the military situation yet is not the long term solution to the Ukraine problem, NATO limiting it's role and the US limiting it's role in NATO offers a solution that preserves the long term interests of Western Europe(Germany, France, Italy, UK, Spain) and preserves world peace and dialogue. It also promotes integration of India and Russia into the world trade and world economy as it diversifies from the dominance of China in world trade and the world economy of the last 20 years of free trade that deindustrialized US and Europe. What this national security document does not say is that China's dominance in world trade and the errors of the US, Europe, Japan, Russia, India in world trading relationships and their economic approach that made this possible is the central issue and calls for diversification of supply channels in the world economy. This shifts the direction of the world in a peaceful direction where the US, Japan and Europe, India can compete in economic growth and trade with China on equal terms. ...

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Apple faces large hurdles in China with models made locally by Huawei and other Chinese companies that offer similar features at a price about one third less. Chinese buyers are also looking for products that are made locally by Chinese companies. As a result Apple's market share in China has declined from 9% in 2015 to 7% in 2016. The future for Apple does not look bright apart from a core group of Apple fans that look for new product launches every year. Social media comments cited here show the comments about the iPhone 7 that say buyers should not pay $159 for Air Pods, the cordless earbuds. With the economic situation changing buyers are careful to pay so much for the iPhone 7, when it looks so much like the iPhone 6. In India Apple iPhone price are much higher and remain a significant hurdle for price conscious buyers.

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Laurent Bonadei says of this German team as they fended off repeated French attempts at goal over the first 90 minutes- “Germany deserves their qualification because they defended very well. Usually we manage to create more chances. We were against a team that was very smart. There was no panic from them – we wanted to get them to panic but it didn’t happen.” It was a game of sheer chaos starting with a bizarre hair pull by Katherine Hendrichs of the German team leading to a red card, and two goals for France not given because of offside decisions by umpires, and two penalty kicks for fouls. Not to mention a saved own goal by Anne-Katrin Berger that was something sensational to watch.Berger faced constant French attempts on goal for 90 minutes as France controlled the ball 70% of the time. Somehow the German team with 10 players held its defense together. Berger's soft spoken style stands out- “All the credit should go to the team, not me. Everybody here should talk about the performance of the team.” ...

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The first six years since 2001 were years of short term quick fix solutions for Afghanistan, and policy since then has not been much better. And considering the tribal nature, hostility to outsiders and history of this vast mountainous country, it is not clear what would have worked and what the realistic goals should be.

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This article in Zeit Online tries to provide the facts behind Merkel's decision made in a period of 24-48 hours to let refugees marching towards Austria from Keleti station in Budapest, Hungary, September 5, 2015, to enter Germany. Other reports pointed out that too little time was given to make the decision and that it was purely done on humanitarian terms. And made during that short window of time, in which a decision had to be made to turn away the refugees going on foot for hundreds of miles or to turn them away. Given Germany's earlier history the choice was a difficult one but erred on the side of being humanitarian. Though Merkel's selfie with a refugee at a hostel on Sept 10, would seem to suggest otherwise, Merkel has said her decision was made with so little time and little opportunity to understand all the ramifications of this. It was not an open invitation to refugees to come to Germany. 

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A German reporter questions the value of the G20 meetings following the violence on streets at the last Hamburg meeting. He says the first G20 during the global financial crisis was useful but later meetings have not lived up to the hope for discussion and search for solutions to world problems. Global trade is at the top of the agenda following the tariffs dispute between China and the U.S. Divergent interests of participants are a problem. Would going back to G-7 in private meetings be a solution asks this reporter.

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French president Macron fails to get president Xi of China to commit to changes in its policies towards Russia's invasion of Ukraine. Macron's visit as seen by the NYT only undermines the US policy and European Union policy that opposes the invasion of Ukraine by Russia. EU's Leyen also visits China at this time.  The relations between the US and European business with China expanded for two decades between 2000-2020. All three regions are heavily invested in each other. Decoupling is a gradual process and China sees the EU as an access point for technology and investment. The US has not decoupled from China even after moves in semiconductors and electric vehicles were made by president Biden. Apple and other American companies are heavily invested in China. The US and the EU are committed to building new supply chains. Their policies are intended to do this in a way that reduces the effect on their economies. The European Union depended on the US for its response to the Russian invasion and to protect freedom in Europe through NATO. By 2024 the European Union policies will be integrated with policy of the US. China is also trying to reduce the effect on its economy by decoupling in a way that maintains growth. ...

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Roger Cohen in the NYT says Macron has missed the public mood in France, the cost of living crisis and the social and economic problems left by the pandemic. FR24 says about two thirds of the French people think this is the wrong time to tackle the pensions issue. The change in the pensions is not an immediate solution as it will be phased in over a period of time stretching to 2030. Many solutions could have been put in place to tackle age discrimination and other problems to make it possible to work productively for longer. Macron needed to address these problems and come up with ways to lessen the burden of the cost of living crisis first before tackling longer term issues. This is a major misstep by Macron, and comes from his lack of experience as one of the youngest persons to become president of France at the age of 39. He was reelected but only with the help of voters who had supported  a socialist candidate Mr. Melenchon. Macron said after that election that he would listen carefully to the voting public that had elected him, even with reservations after the yellow vest protests about his lack of sensitivity for people struggling to make a living. ...

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Greg Jaffe and Patrick Marley tell the story of how the mask mandate in Michigan had the unintended effect of splitting the administration of a historically conservative Republican county in Western Michigan. Ottawa county in western Michigan is close to Grand Rapids and includes the cities of Grand Haven and Holland, with Dutch Calvinist roots. The mask mandate led to Mr. Moss getting into politics after it led to the closure of a Christian school that did not adhere to the mandate where his daughters studied. He founded a political organization Ottawa Impact with private donated funds that won the local election with eight of 11 seats in the County Board of  Commissioners. And decided the only way forward was to replace the entire civil administration in Ottawa County. Courts have prevented the firing of Ms. Hamble running the environmental division of the Health Department.  Ms. Hamble has many years of experience in her field and says she is acting professionally to protect health sanitation for the local community. The result is an impasse and much acrimony in a traditionally Republican county with unique Dutch Christian roots. This NYT report sees this as something that is taking place in many such places all across America- ideological differences turning into divisive discussions. ...

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The doubts among the unvaccinated and America's pandemic of the unvaccinated in the south and west of the country, difficulty reaching a consensus on things as basic as spending $45 billion or 2% of the $2 trillion Biden plan for workers and families on 2 years of community college, or finding a way to stem what is an alarming decline in enrollment in college of young men in America, all go back to a standoff between Republicans and Democrats. Tennessee in the South is Republican yet passed a bill supporting state paid community college with a supermajority, yet at the national level it is lacks support of Republicans and centrist Democrats. To see how this happens this NYT report presents the picture from the Democrats side of how Montana residents blocked a National Heritage area in the state. Other stories relate to distortions from the other side from the Republican point of view. One man, one vote is not entirely the way Democracy was designed by Jefferson, Madison and other founders. The Senate of the US is based on one state one vote, giving Montana an equal vote as California or New York. At one time Mike Mansfield, Democrat of Montana was the Senate majority leader. The intent was to design a system that looks not just for democracy but checks on majorities of the moment.  This means unity is the way to renewal of America, for building its infrastructure, education and health care. If Tennessee feels that way about community college it should express it, so should other states in supporting president Biden's plan to Build Back Better. ...

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Melissa Eddy of the NYT provides this exceptional account of the debate in Germany on national priorities, as the child care educators represented by the Verdi service workers union go on strike for a 10% increase in wages. Workers at entry level jobs in manufacturing represented by strong unions earn the same pay as teachers in child care centers and early childhood education who have many years of experience. The child care education workers are supported by the federal family minister, SDP minister Manuela Schwesig, who says that the additional experience and education upto university level of the child care educators in early childhood education should be recognized. Schwesig said: "We need a debate in Germany on how much we value the work of those who take care of the early education of our children and with young adults." One aspect of the 240,000 child care educators strike has drawn less attention. This is the gender pay gap as a large percentage of educators in childcare centers are women. Equal Pay Day in Berlin was organized for June 5, to call for equal pay for women who have fallen behind in pay. Data from the European Commission in 2014 shows Germany ranks third to last in gender pay equality, with only Estonia and Austria trailing behind, as cited by Deutsche Welle. Schwesig who attended the rally pointed out: "When women, despite equal work and education, earn less than their male colleagues, it is not only unfair. It is wrong." While Germany has moved ahead in quotas for female employees, women in boardrooms, parental leave, this does not help women in critical areas such as early childhood education and elderly care, which suffer from a large pay gap with men working in manufacturing jobs. ...

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This exceptional account by Ginger Thompson and Sara Cohen shows the Obama administration's strategy of creating credibility for its immigration enforcement by setting a target of 400,000 deportations a year, and focussing on the border states such as California, Texas, Arizona. The deportations were kept away from the midwestern states and states in the interior of the country. Under the Bush administration raids were made on businesses hiring illegal immigrants and the policy implemented all over the country, not selectively targeting the border. Local police were given authority to check immigration status of suspected foreigners. Deportations reached a peak of 383,000 under Bush in 2008. In 2008 Congress supported the Bush administration by doubling the immigration agency budget to $5.5 billion and imposed a mandate requiring detaining a daily average of 34,000 immigrants. Under the Obama administration the pilot project for state and local police to check immigration status of people fingerprinted in an arrest was expanded. Under project Secure Communities police could hand over illegal immigrants to immigration authorites, and new implementation criteria in a June 2010 memo easily covered a third of the 11.5 million illegal immigrants, according to immigration officials cited by NYT. Removal process was expedited so that expedited removals doubled under the Obama administration. Under Bush about 75% of those deported were sent home with criminal charges if they had no criminal record. Under Obama this increased to 90%. The NYT analysis suggests the immigration enforcement and grasp of the immigrant story looking for a better life, was better for "good" immigrants under presidents from border states such as Reagan from California and the elder Bush from Texas, than under a midwesterner of minority background. It shakes up the image of Hispanic Americans as part of a political affiliation to a particular party. ...

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In a wide ranging interview with the WSJ Zelensky says China is a bigger and more powerful country than Russia that has a role in bringing about peace- "I would not want such a country to stand by and watch people die." He added that this is not a painting or a museum, this is a real war, with horrendous damage on all sides.

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The key role played by National Institutes of Health scientists in the development of the Moderna covid vaccine was not accepted in the application for patents by Moderna, leading to a dispute with the NIH. Moderna has now dropped the patent application saying it is a distraction on work for tackling the Omicron variant. That patent application had not listed scientists of NIH who worked on the invention.

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Children are not getting enough time outdoors. The pandemic has worsened this. The Tech company driven changes in use of screen time have added to this with children spending as little as 10 minutes outdoors. The progression of myopia increased by 35% by one estimate after 3 years of the pandemic. Natural sunlight is needed for the eye not to grow longer which contributes to nearsightedness, say researchers.

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Another example of aggressive pricing is sweetest batch with prices at $6.99 for 12 strawberries. For years Driscoll's did not market the sweetest strawberries because these berries were not of the abundant variety. Now Driscoll's is charging high prices for these strawberries. Strawberries is the most popular fruit and and it is $9 billion market with 40% growth over last 5 years. 

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Germany's Constitutional Court says it will require some time to look into the issues related to plaintiffs complaints about the creation of the European Stability Mechanism on June 29, 2012, by a vote of the German parliament, and whether it is unconstitutional. Finance minister Schauble urged the court not to delay because it woud affect market perceptions about Germany's commitment to tackle the eurozone crisis. Petitions were filed with the Constituional Court by a group of academics led by Peter Gauweiler, a member of parliament from Bavaria, and a Social Democrat Herta Daubler-Gmelin, a former Justice minister on behalf of 12,000 citizens. The petitions say the creation of the ESM and the fiscal pact are unconstitutional because it forces parliament to cede powers over Germany's federal budget. Jens Weidmann, head of the Bundesbank, said a quick decision by the court is not likely to end the crisis, as this would not end without the necessary structural and economic reforms.

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Awesome pictures of the solar eclipse shown in the NYT.

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Krueger and Posner, eminent economists, say the reason wages have stagnated in the U.S. with wages not having budged much over a decade 2008-2018, is not only because of globalization and automation as long term trends. They attribute this stagnation in wages to "monopsony power," or power American corporations have over workers because of their stronger bargaining position and because workers have few alternatives.  For most of this period 2008-2018 high unemployment as reflected by the people out of work and taking part time jobs or having stopped looking for work, shifted bargaining power to companies. The Economist magazine pointed out that workers have not shared in the profit and gains corporations made during this period. Here Krueger and Posner show additional factors such as non compete clauses in worker agreements that have depressed wages. Half of franchise agreements prohibit competition for labor. Outsourcing work to other companies that hire workers means these outsourcing companies have more power over workers than the original companies using the labor. Unions represent only 7 percent of private sector workers by 2017, compared to 35 percent in the 1950's, so that there are no mechanisms to counteract the greater bargaining power gained by companies vs. workers. The way workers have roots in the communities they live and the consolidation of employers into a few companies in a particular area, mean fewer options exist for workers.  Senators Warren and Booker and the anti-trust division of the U.S. Justice Department are in agreement on this issue of widespread use of noncompete agreements that is considered unlawful, says this report in the NYT, offering hope for a solution to bring a better balance between the rights of workers to fair wages and companies seeking profit for stakeholders. Issues about workers, lack of gains for workers, prevalent outsourcing, and the frustrations of labor with parties that had lost touch with their worker base- such as Labor in Britain, SPD in Germany, Socialist Party in France and the Democratic Party in the U.S. - have led to political upsets with support shifting to other parties. This has not led to significant change to improve bargaining power of workers to correct the imbalance that now exists between labor and companies, leading to calls for change. Eric Posner is a law professor at the University of Chicago law school and co-author of a new book "Radical Markets: uprooting Capitalism and Democracy for a Just Society." This book turns the popular notion on its head that free markets have produced the imbalances that hurt social cohesion and democracy, by saying it is precisely the suppression of free competition such as for labor that have created this unhealthy situation. This is true in other areas where monopoly power has developed in other parts of the U.S and European economies in 2008-2018, as also for distortions in capital allocation that hurt infrastructure and other public investment. Krueger is a professor of public affairs at Princeton University and former head of the President's Council of Economic Advisors in 2011 under Obama, showing that Democrats themselves failed to correct this imbalance leading to a shift to other parties and Mr. Trump, who also appear to lack ideas or solutions to this problem that affects social cohesion and democracy. This is contrary to the vision of American or European society of better opportunity for all shared by all Americans and Europeans for most of the twentieth century. ...