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The hardest hit group in this downturn are workers who have not completed high school, with the unemployment rate for this group going up to 15.5% compared to 8.4% last year. Workers with 4 year college degrees have unemployment at 4.8%, comparedto 2.3% a year ago. The unemployment rate for women in May is at 7.5% and for men at 9.8%. Women who have finished high school have an easier time finding jobs in health care and education. The male dominated manufacturing and construction industries are among the worst hit. Harvard University labor economist Katz says the recessions of 1990 and 2001 were more "egalitarian" than the present one, which is more like the recessions of the early 1980's and the 1970's when the less educated group was the hardest hit.

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Mervyn King of the Bank of England and Ben Bernanke both were academics at MIT, and both share the approach they are taking for quantitative easing or credit easing. They are buying up assets like government bonds in the case of Bank of England to reduce the yields, and commerical paper, mortgage backed securities, and consumer debt in the case of the Fed, also to reduce yields and drive up prices. The idea is to act more decisively than the Bank of Japan did during Japan's banking crisis, and flood the system with cash so that there is real impact. There is less danger of inflation in this downturn, which is one of the calculations that the Fed and the Bank of England are both making as they do this.

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The collapse of the zloty, losing half its value against the Swiss franc is proving to be traumatic for Polish consumers who took out loans in Swiss francs for property, cars, consumer goods. In the past the zloty had soared in value and it was cheaper to pay off the loans in Swiss francs which had lower interest rates. Now with the zloty losing so much value it is proving very difficult to pay off these loans. What was once seen as a win-win game, says a economic advisor to Poland's President, now is turning into a risky currency gamble. He says that people were taking risks without knowing the consequences and what they were getting into, much like homeowners in the US getting into risky subprime loans.

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Demonstrations across France in cities like Paris, Lyon and Marseilles, by private and public trade unions drew an estimated 2.5 million people. They are protests that President Sarkozy's government is not doing enough to provide stimulus to the economy and protect jobs. THese are the largest nationwide demmonstrations in more than 20 years. France lost the most jobs in 40 years in the last quarter of 2008 and Sarkozy's government has only announced a$35 billion stimulus. Germany and France are also holding back on large stimulus spending , including significant help for Eastern European countries, and this will become an issue at the April 2, 2009 G-20 meeting. Ted Truman at Treasury is articulating aforceful response for the Obama administration calling on the EU countries to come up with astrong stimulus plan. See link.

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Mr Bogle of Vanguard Group, says we live in an agency society, not an ownership society. Ownership society was 50 years ago. The mutual fund managers and the pension fund managers make the decisions as institutional investors for us, they are agents. And these managers had the power as corporate citizens, controlling some 70% of the shares of public companies, but decided to exercize forbearance. They did not play the active role they could have played in board structure and governance, director elections, executive compensation. Money managers did not do the kind of due diligence that was required. The securities analysts and researchers could have, but failed to question the toxic assets on the balance sheets of banks, investment banks and especially of places like Citigroup and Merrill.

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Simon Johnson, former chief economist at the IMF, says Britain may have to turn to the IMF for assistance if those holding British assets lose confidence in the government's ability to pay its debts, and start abandoning the pound. This happened in 1976. In Johnson's view the bottom line is that there is abudget problem and a banking problem, and adjustments will need to be made - and these adjustments are easier to make with an IMF loan than without one. Britain's budget deficit is 11%of its GDP compared with 13% forecast for the USA for 2009. And government debt which is 40% now is expected to go up to 80% of the overall economy in coming years, even 100%. The ratio approaches 80% in troubled economies like Italy and Greece.

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How the Drug Industry and Drug Companies will go through a complete change and look nowhere near what it looks like today. Huge changes are overtaking the Drug industry and old ways of doing things will go out the window. Patent expirations for blockbuster drugs, safety issues, increased regulation, rise of generics drugs, cost issues, outsourcing of manufacture and testing and some R&D, changes in marketing practices, slimming down of marketing and sales force personnel, new approaches to R&D- Novartis emphasizing science, Glaxo breaking up into smaller teams, and the growth of emerging markets. All this happens as the public in the USA looks at healthcare in anew way and the demand for healthcare expands quickly in growing developing countries of Asia, Africa and Latin America and Eastern Europe.

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Garry Wills doesn't like what he saw in the Bush Presidency with the elder Bush's advisor Dick Cheney having an influential role and almost independent powers within the Bush Presidency. What happens if the executive power has a former President and a newly elected President in the White House. He says that question was resolved in favor of not having this kind of plural Presidency when James Wilson of Pennsylvania's argument that executive power could best be checked with accountability in one individual as President was accepted by the framers of the Constitution. There appears to be a alienation from having a repeat of the Bushes Presidency in a Clintons Presidency among older white male voters, is this a trend that will hold true for the rest of the year?

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Former SEC Commissioner Arthur Levitt offers his views on what needs to be done in this mortgage crisis. He calls for more transparency, with FASB ensuring that nothing is kept off company balance sheets like the conduits and SIV's, and for more accountability, with the credit ratings agencies incentives not being subverted by the profit motive, and for accountability from originators and mortgage brokers with tough licensing standards. He calls for more regulation in the interest of quality of American capital markets with merging of CFTC and SEC, and more authority for the SEC. He calls for the Fed, the SEC, the Comptroller of Currency and other regulators to require needed risk management practices and public disclosures, and give them more teeth to ensure quality in capital markets.

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Iraq is a clear example of how the oil reveues may be there but without the mechanism of getting the oil revenues to work creating infrastructure and jobs, and even the basic mechanism of a well functioning civil service and a financial and banking system to put the money to work, things can be quite bleak when they do not have to be. Some of it also is agreement between the communities and leadership to get a consensus on what should be done and how it should be spent. It shows how litttle can be taken for granted in war torn, civil dissension fractured places of the world, even in relatively literate and functioning societies like that of the Arab middle eastern states. See the links to this documenting the difficulties.

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The Fed reduced rates to 1% from 1.5% on October 29, 2008. If the Fed were to reduce rates down to zero that would put the USA in the situation that Japan found itself when Japan's central bank reduced rates to zero in the 1990's, and where it remained for years as its economy struggled. For the USA these low rates were last reached in 2003 and 2004 after the bursting of the internet bubbbe. The only surprise element in this is that this comes so early in the deep and prolonged recession that is expected. What if the rate is down to zero, then the Fed could use unconventional tools like buying longterm Treasury securities that would help to push down the terms for consumer credit that tracks those Treasury securities.

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The failure of Basel 1 and 2 and the effects of the Asian market crisis in 1997 in creating a situation of current account surpluses in Asia and other countries that ended up in extra liquidity in the western countries where debt went out of control. The concerns about negotiations to enhance the role of emerging economies in the IMF, the Financial Stability Forum and other organizations, as these organizations play a larger role and need larger access to funds. The chance that with such a large agenda especially in the area of regulation and enlarged representation of emerging economies in international organizations like the IMF, the leaders of G20 may simply use this meeting and meetings in coming months to forward their own leader and country agendas, leaving these issues unresolved for now.

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Priorities from voting by 100 CEO's at the CEO Council the week of 17 November, 2008. Swiftly passing an internationally coordinated stimulus in excess of $300 billion was voted a priority of 7.1 on scale of 1 to 9 with nine the highest. Bolstering education for a competitive workforce came in second at an average of 6.9. Speedily stating a clear economic vision, appointing advisers, and sending a strong message about priorities and direction of economic policy, came in third with an average of 6.8. Making a comprehensive energy and environmental policy a top priority, creating incentives for consumers to become more energy efficient, came in fourth with a 6.6 average. A long term tax policy that encourages employment and job creation and enhancing global competitiveness came in fifth with an average of 6.0.

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A neuroscientist writes about the effects of fear. When the fear system of the brain is active, exploratory active and risk-taking are turned off, which is what happens to companies and leaders in business also as fear of collapse makes banks and financial institutions unwilling to lend, and freezes up the credit markets . The same thing occurs as the market for corporate bonds dries up for lack of buyers who also huddle up and try to wait things out. This effect may also acccount for the need for a determined and informed government backed by research and think tanks, like the new Obama transition team, to take the initiative, as the government has the resources to break this logjam and craft new solutions in exploratory and risktaking investment activity and national policymaking.

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Rogaine developed by Upjohn , then sold by Pfizer and now by J&J, was developed for high blood pressure but because of hair growth as a side effect was turned into a baldness drug. It is now sold in a mousse form. It is marketed like something you need to have in the bathroom like toothpaste, use often even if to prevent future baldness. Sales are still only around $46 million after an effort to boost sales. One see this in many other drugs advertising, but is it something you use like toothpaste?

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Design for aesthetics, for simplicity, elegance, and functionality, the Apple Way, with no buttons and no clutter. How users learn how its to be used like the ipod and become fluent in its use like how to start and stop or turn off the device.

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Twenty Democrat Governors meet with Biden on July 3, 2024. All says they support Biden. Governor Newsom put it this way- "I heard three words from the president tonight. He's all in. So am I." Newson said he was not just a defendor of the president, he was a passionate supporter of Biden. Most say those who can hear understand that his achievements are undeniable. Governor Whitmer said "He is in to win it. And I support him." Kamala Harris said "We will not back down. We will follow our president's lead." Governors from Minnesota and Maryland said "He had our backs during Covid. We have his back." The problem it appears upon closer look is that the media did nothing, nothing to question where it should ask questions about what is not in character with Lincoln, Wilson, FDR, Truman, Ike, not in character with the founders Jefferson, Adams and Washington. It did not look closely at what president actually said- only the delivery which can depend on the day- an educated media would never do this. The media's credibility today is the lowest it has ever been, on this basis the media including the largest television stations and the newspapers have failed, and failed the Nation. In the UK the media supported Brexit and failed the British nation, this is how the British people feel today as they go to vote in the general election on July 4th. It is the reckless behavior of the unelected media that is put to the real test in 2024. ...

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Leonhardt points out in the NYT that Hillary Clinton actually won in the popular vote by a substantial margin, by more than 2 million votes and more than 1.5 percentage points. He says that Democrats need to pay more attention to the working class in midwestern states- the job losses, crumbling infrastructure, and the plight of communities such as Detroit, Michigan which suffered through the bankruptcies of Chrysler and GM, and again with the foreclosure crisis, the financial crisis of the City of Detroit. With a similar situation in the neighboring states of Wisconsin and Ohio, in places like Toledo and other parts of communities facing industrial decline. While the Silicon Valley centred region powered the economy in California, and the financial industry and real estate powered New York, older midwestern communities never really recovered from a long decline stretching over 2 decades. The result was the loss of faith in Democrats among union workers and young people, leading to the loss of Wisconsin, Ohio and Michigan. For most of its history the Democratic Party was based on its union and working class base including a large number of white voters. Only under Obama because of his unique candidacy was the coalition so dependent on the minorities vote. Before minorities were part of the Democratic coalition, but not in the way under the Obama candidacy. A return to its historic and normal base among whites in unions and working class communities, liberals, minorities, is a way to go back to the historic and natural base of Democratic support. In a sense dependence on tech communities for election funding and the tech booms, globalization, may have distorted Democrats sense of their historic role as champions of the working class and middle class communities throughout the country. There is now an opportunity to restore this lost mission of protecting the interests of the middle and working class who have seen huge drop in net worth as reported by Janet Yellen of the Federal Reserve at the Inequality Conference on October 17, 2014-"62 million households with a net worth of $11,000 for the year 2013." Poorly covered in the media and not made the utmost priority by Democrats (or Republicans). In the words of Janet Yellen, this was in the past several decades "the most sustained rise in inequality since the 19th century after more than 40 years of narrowing inequality since the Great Depression." She added the shocking words "by some estimates, income and wealth inequality near their highest levels in the past hundred years, and probably much higher than much of American history before then." Even discussion in the media goes back to the Obama coalition and treats it as a way forward for Democrats, when history shows it was different and the situation described by Yellen calls for a serious response. ...

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The doubts among the unvaccinated and America's pandemic of the unvaccinated in the south and west of the country, difficulty reaching a consensus on things as basic as spending $45 billion or 2% of the $2 trillion Biden plan for workers and families on 2 years of community college, or finding a way to stem what is an alarming decline in enrollment in college of young men in America, all go back to a standoff between Republicans and Democrats. Tennessee in the South is Republican yet passed a bill supporting state paid community college with a supermajority, yet at the national level it is lacks support of Republicans and centrist Democrats. To see how this happens this NYT report presents the picture from the Democrats side of how Montana residents blocked a National Heritage area in the state. Other stories relate to distortions from the other side from the Republican point of view. One man, one vote is not entirely the way Democracy was designed by Jefferson, Madison and other founders. The Senate of the US is based on one state one vote, giving Montana an equal vote as California or New York. At one time Mike Mansfield, Democrat of Montana was the Senate majority leader. The intent was to design a system that looks not just for democracy but checks on majorities of the moment.  This means unity is the way to renewal of America, for building its infrastructure, education and health care. If Tennessee feels that way about community college it should express it, so should other states in supporting president Biden's plan to Build Back Better. ...

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When so much of infrastructure healthcare and education still needs more funding, and when St Paul's Cathderal lacks essential funds for basic maintenance and is in danger of closing, the Greensill scandal shows how much reallocation of funds to infrastructure, health, and education to help workers, students and families is needed. How much the existing culture distorts allocation of capital in ways that are vital to the future of families, students and workers, and lobbying acts in ways that are against the national interest. Here the WSJ says the lobbying of David Cameron, former UK prime minister extended to getting access to funds for Greensill, a  company that operated in  supply chain finance, lobbying for funds from the emergency financing facility provided by the Bank of England. Treasury rejected 56 messages sent by Cameron to top British politicians over several months to have rules changed. Greensill went into bankruptcy in March 2021, stranding investors who had put in $10 billion. A parliamentary committee is now looking into this case of Greensill. The company was founded by an Australian Lex Greensill, and does little more than provide companies a cash advance to stretch out the time to pay bills. One question no parliamentary committee will ask is why when the needs for infrastructure, health and education are so great $10 billion in funds, public or private even go into something like supply finance that does so little for the country. This is an example of the kind of distortion in the uses of capital that has become commonplace today, creating societies and countries with poorly  funded infrastructure and essential services in the advanced countries of Europe and the US. ...

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The Berlin conference in 2020 on Libya is an effort taken seriously by chancellor Merkel and French president Macron, supported by president Trump, for an "inner-Libyan reconciliation process" with "a sovereign Libya" that would prevent another larger large scale emigration to Europe from North Africa. On one side is a UN backed government of Mr. Fayez Sarraj, that controls Tripoli and the west and on the other a group of Militias under Mr. Haftar that controls the south and east.  Various foreign powers are fueling the conflict and the goal is have them disengage and drop support for their faction- Turkey for the Tripoli government and the Saudis and UAE, with Egypt, Russia supporting the rival government. All hope to gain influence, for what that means, at the risk of large scale refugees and further destruction, and dislocation of European unity through large scale emigration to Europe. It is almost like the Thirty Years War when Sweden, Austria, and the French fought proxy wars in Europe in other countries mainly in German states and central Europe. That period? - 1618-1648, losses of 8 million dead from wars, famine and plague, with loss of 20% of the German population. What started as Catholic- Protestant ended up with Austrian Hapsburg- French rivalry wars, today local religious factions conflict with secular factions ending with rival power conflict.  The foreign policy expert for Merkel Mr. Hardt says "it is key to the further stabilization of North and West Africa. If we succeed in leading Libya into a peaceful future, it would be a milestone for the entire region." ...

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About 60% of Americans think the testing for coronavirus and getting medical supplies to health care workers is too slow, in a poll by Wall Street Journal/NBC News. About 6 in 10 Americans in a new survey say they are concerned that the U.S. would move too fast to loosen coronavirus restrictions to slow the spread, and only 3 in 10 say they are concerned that it is not moving fast enough. About twice as many Americans thinking the risks were higher that public authorites and governors would reopen states too soon. About 75% of respondents in the survey say they are very or somewhat worried about themselves or a family member getting the virus. Mr. Trump's approval rating  remains unchanged from March with 46% approving. Most people place their faith in the governor of their state- 66%, and Mr. Fauci, Director National Institute of Infectious Diseases- 60%, than anyone else. On the economy president Trump is seen as being better at handling the economy 47% to 36% than Democratic nominee Biden, even though Biden has a nine point lead. This confirms the widespread dissatisfaction at the way medical supplies shortages are felt at hospitals, and the way testing for coronavirus is happening with not enough testing. President Trump perceived by business and the public as better at handling the economy is also confirmed in this survey. The dissatisfaction with the president for supplies shortages and testing lagging behind may also be tempered by a sense that the public has not taken aggressive action in supporting an early lockdown with many governors and people not supporting or following strict distancing rules till late March. By contrast the president acted quickly to stop all flights from China. ...

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With Britain preoccupied with Brexit, and the U.S. in a trade dispute with China, Chancellor Merkel remains the only western leader to visit and hold extensive talks with Chinese leaders Li Keqiang and Xi Jinping. She also visits other Chinese cities such as Wuhan and gives a speech at Huazhong University of Science and Technology in Wuhan, in which she commented on the social credit system being implemented in China about the social creditworthiness of individuals and businesses.  Merkel sitting next to premier Li Keqiang in Beijing advocated "that conflicts be resolved without violence and that anything else would be a catastrophe." She called for a peaceful resolution of the situation in Hong Kong and for Hong Kong's rights to be "guaranteed." This is significant because the close cooperation between Germany and China is critical for China today to tackle the economic problems created by the trade disputes with the U.S.  Merkel has a close relationship with Chinese leaders and has visited China many times, giving her the confidence to talk to Chinese leaders without arousing any sensitivities about internal affairs of China. She is the only leader who can speak her mind to Chinese leaders, without offending them. When she used the word "catastrophe" she chose it carefully. It took decades for China to build the trust and relationships with Europe and the U.S. that it has.  Trading relationships matter for both China and western nations and are built on trust and good relations. With the Shenzen region growing faster than Hong Kong, and thinking like Beijing, China could tackle the situation in Hong Kong over a long period. ...

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An obscure parliamentary precedent was used by Speaker Bercrow to end Theresa May's strategy of repeated votes in Britain's parliament to browbeat reluctant Brexiters to vote for her negotiated settlement with the European Union. The precedent was set as far back as 1604 and was designed to protect the powers of parliament in the face of a Scottish royal assuming the role of sovereign of Britain. Repeated votes on the same proposals are not allowed if the intention is to find ways to get reluctant members of parliament to vote in favor, essentially by bullying them into this. This is also why Brexiter MP's have hailed the Speaker's decision in their opposition to Theresa May. Britain's constitution is based not on a single document like the U.S. Constitution. It is based on a a collective set of laws and precedents. A parliamentary rule book published by Thomas Erskine in 1844 sets out these rules in 1097 pages, available for 439 pounds in parliament's bookshop. It has gone through 24 editions. Speaker Bercrow says of the rule he was referring to as a statement on page 397 of the 24th edition.  There is not much time, just 10 days, for prime minister Theresa May to end the current parliamentary session and call a new one to nullify Speaker Bercrow's decision. This would also further antagonize the 40 Brexiter MP's led by Mr. Jacob Rees-Mogg and Boris Johnson in May's own party, making it impossible for parliament to agree on a course of action. ...

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An exceptional journalism story of what happened on Sept 16 and September 17, 2008, and the aftermath, by Pulliam, Rappaport, Lucchetti, Strasburg and McGinty, when Morgan Stanley stock lost more than half its value and was at risk of collapsing. What caused the collapse in price? This article shows how the biggest names in financial institutions were buying protection with credit default swaps, and as the price of these swaps skyrocketed on Sept 16 and Sept 17, the shortselling in Morgan Stanley's shares also skyrocketed. Shortselling on Sept 17 reaching nine times the normal, with 39 million shares sold short adding to the 31 million shares sold short in the prior two days, according to trading records examined by WSJ. It was at this point, on the pleas of John Mack CEO of Morgan Stanley, the SEC stepped in to temporarily suspend short selling. It is hard to clearly isolate the shortselling that went on for protection, from the shortselling for speculation, but hedge funds were involved and some of the shortselling was done to make a quick profit. Citigroup has faced the problem of losing half the share's value in a couple of days in the week of November 17, and shortselling in Citigroup's shares contributed to the collapsing stock. See the 3 graphs setup to show the influence of credit default swaps on short selling, and the on share price for Morgan Stanley. On Monday November 24, the government announced a rescue plan for Citigroup. That the uptick rule has not been reinstated as yet, means that when one looks back at this period a few years from now it will show errors in handling this economic and financial markets crisis were made, different from that in the 1930's, but with serious consequences. ...