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Case-Shiller home price index shows 18.5 % drop year over year for December 2009, for single family homes in 20 major metropolitan areas. The Conference Board Index for consumer confidence dropped from 37.4 in January 2009 to 25 in February 2009. Of the 5000 households surveyed more 90% said they expected conditions would be the same or worse in the next 6 months. The Obama $275 billion plan for homeowners does not address the weakest cities in the market which are in places like Phoenix, Las Vegas, and much of Florida and Southern California, where prices have fallen 40% or more from their peak. This is because mortgages that are under water are not included, these are mortgages where more is owed on the house than the house is worth, and is ocurring faster in places where price declines are the steepest. One expert Martin Feldstein who is also on the Obama advisory panel has insisted since early 2008 that these homeowners under water have no rational incentive to continue making payments. What this does is to make consumers to postpone purchases like autos and hold back or cut back on all kinds of spending. In this global economy this means places like China's coastal regions which export to the US get hit hard and in turn exporters to china like Germany also get hit hard as what starts in the USA gets passed on theough the global economy from one region to another. Which also means US exports to Asian and other emerging market countries of tech goods and aircraft are in turn hit hard. As Republicans and Democrats follow their ideological leanings they cancel each other out in the debate, as Prof. Potter at Harvard an expert on economic strategy points out in a link, resulting in necessary actions not being taken and no clear direction. ...

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GM plans to bring the Chevy Volt, a plug in type of car that will run more on the battery than the Toyota Prius- which uses gasoline support as soon as it picks up speed- to market in 3 years. But it doesn't yet know how it will do it. What created the opportunity is that Toyota is having a hard time of its own trying to figure out a battery that can provide more electric power, more punch, that would raise the Prius mpg from 46 to about 80 mpg. Its lithium ion technology batteries to achieve this haven't passed the safety tests so Toyota is pushing this back to 2011. This created a opportunity for GM to come up with its own for a plug in Chevy Volt. Its looking a small companies in the US that might supply these batteries. GM has come up with 2 consortiums of suppliers, one from MIT called A123 that is based on the work of MIT Prof.Yet-Ming Chinag who works with iron phosphate technology that is less prone to fires and safety issues. The other is led by S. Korean chemical maker LG Chem. Toshiba is working on research for a lithium ion battery for cars that will be safe on the Japanese side. It is not clear how this will turn out because batteries for laptops have had fires and safety issues, but the R&D is on in earnest for a new safe electric battery for cars. And automakers know its not just about an electric car. On it rests the image and innovation leader perception that is so important in marketing that no amount of advertising can fix, as the US automakers have learned to their extreme grief. ...

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The US Fed under Jerome Powell stress tests of 31 banks for 2024 shows the banks can withstand a rise in unemployment to 10% and 36% drop in house prices. This is relevant now that the new administration of DJT makes another effort to correct the huge trade imbalance with China, Mexico and Canada, which itself is destabilizing in the long run and needs to be addressed. The first term of DJT failed to correct the imbalance with new tariffs kept in place by the Biden administration. This is not just one's imagination, reports suggest China has poured $230 billion of subsidies into its EV industry since 2003 mandate given by premier Jen Biao to dominate that industry. And now has capacity of 20 million car production a year, twice the domestic demand in gasoline cars, wanting to send the surplus production to the US and Europe. This isn't the 1930's type of tariffs, it is simply to get a fair even playing field for trade, where no one side is massively subsidizing and dumping which is one of the principles of WTO free trade that is being broken by China and Mexico. Specifically the anti dumping clause in Article 6 of the 1994 GATT agreement on free world trading mechanism to ensure free and fair trade. ...

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Media accounts have given so much attention to the Nixon Feb. 1972 visit to China that most people may be unaware that this was just an important yet small beginning. The significance of what happened after 1972 is not fully understood. In 1973 the US liasion Office was setup in Beijing and China's liasion office in Washington DC.  Beyond this not much happened. Why? In 1972 election year the Watergate scandal started in June of that year only 4 months after the Nixon China visit. Nixon was too engaged with fighting impeachment that there was not much followup to the visit to China. In 1974 Nixon resigned and Gerald Ford became president. Till Carter became president in 1976 and in 1977 negotiations began to upgrade relations with premier Deng Xiaoping visiting the US in 1979. In China too a lot was happening. Mao was hospitalized in 1972 during Nixon's visit to China, the reason for the urgency on the Chinese side. In 1976 within a few months first premier Chou en lai and then chairman Mao passed away. A power struggle led to the head of the Military Commission Deng taking control. It was not till 1977 under Jimmy Carter 5 years after 1972 that China began full normalization, gained diplomatic recognition as the People's Republic of China and trade, cultural contacts were started.   ...

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The annual assumed rate of investment return is widely overestimated in the largest U.S. public pension systems. 59 of the largest pension systems use 8% return, 17 use 8.25%, 12 use 8.50%, and 32 use between 7.5 and 7.75%, according to the National Association of State Retirement Administrators. This is unrealistic in today's financial markets and overstates the extent to which the pension funds are funded. Calpers, California Public Employees Retirement System, is one of the largest pension systems that uses 7.75% assumed investment return. The Board of the $227 billion pension fund decided to retain the 7.75% return, against the advice of the fund's actuary, at a recent meeting. Calpers actuary had recommended a modest drop to 7.5%. The rate is used as a discount rate to calculate the present value of benefits owed to retirees in the future. The lower the discount rate the higher the pension fund's liabilities, probably requiring a higher contribution by local governments. Corporations use the interest rate on highly rated corporate bonds yielding about 6%, as their pension funds discount rate. An expert at Northwestern University suggests the use of a discount rate based on Treasury yields, which is now 4% for long term bonds. Even the modest drop to 7.5% would increase the amount local governments in California would be required to give the state pension fund by 1.5% to 3% of their payroll in many cases according to Calpers. The budget pain is the reason why state pension funds are sticking with unrealistic past returns....

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Changes in the venture capital industry in 2013 to smaller funds with fewer partners, and focussed on fewer areas. Investors are turning down request for funds from venture capital firms because of poor returns. Other than a couple of brand name firms the venture capital firms have not produced high returns. Ignition Partners is reducing the size of its fund to $150 million from the $400 million raised in 2007. When compared with the return on the stock market the returns produced by the venture capital industry do not look attractive. U.S. venture capital funds produced returns of 6.1% for the last ten years ending September 2012, according to Cambridge Associates LLC. Compare this with Nasdaq Composite Index 10.3% increase and the Dow Jones Indusrial Average 8.6% increase during this period, and one sees why investors are becoming more discerning, moving away from the venture capital firms. The old approach of venture capital firms was based on hit and miss by putting many companies in a basket and hoping for a big hit. Over time the value added to the startup companies by venture firms has declined. There are fewer companies which have the potential for big hits and much of the technological landscape for the internet and software revolution has been filled, leading to one or two big hits such as Facebook and LinkedIn. Large developments for new technological innovation are coming from established companies such as Google and Apple, because of the huge software developments compressed into shorter periods and the investments required....

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Eric Holder Jr, the Attorney General of USA, told the Financial Crisis Inquiry Commisssion that the F.B.I. was investigating more than 2800 mortgage fraud cases. Of these 2800 cases, 1842 are classified as major cases, involving losses of more than $1 million. In addition federal charges are pending against 826 defendents. Lanny Breuer, assistant attorney general of the Justice Department's criminal division stated that the fraud cases included loan origination schemes, property flipping, foreclosure rescue schemes and loan modifications. Those accused of wrongdoing include real estate brokers, appraisers and bank insiders and "plain old fraudsters who gravitated to mortgage fraud." Sheila Bair in her opening remarks to the Financial Inquiry Commission, led by California state Treasurer Angelides, stated that it was necessary to find a way to breakup large banks without using the option of government support. Bair pointed out that the basic assumptions about financial supervision, credit availability and market discipline that were considered acceptable in the regulatory reform scheme for decades are now appearing seriously flawed. A whole reassessment was needed to change the existing mechanisms and methods. And she emphasized the serious distortions and imbalances in our national policies which moved away from savings to consumption, away from investment in our industrial base and public infrastructure toward housing, and away from real sectors of the economy towards the financial sector. Ms. Schapiro who heads the S.E.C. called for a stable , adequate funding to support the commission's work....

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Research on the human genes by Novartis researcher Dr. Rappouli has helped develop a vaccine for Meningitis B. In a unique collaboration with Craig Venter, the scientist who decoded the human genome, Dr Rappouli, an Italian scientist working for Novartis unit, Chiron Corp., describes his research effort and results to Jeanne Whalen of the WSJ in 2007.

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Winfried Vahland, the VW executive chosen to head the U.S. and Mexico operations by new VW CEO Muller, turns down the position. Vahland is one of the most experienced executives at VW, heading the China operations, and since 2010 in charge of the Skoda operations based in the Czech Republic. This is a setback for VW as it looks for ways to improve the management at all of its operations and make organizational changes.

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The number of supercommuters is up significantly as a result of the drop in home prices and high unemployment. It is up 60% in Manhattan since 2002, up to 59,000 or 3% of the workforce. In the Philadelphia- New Jersey corridor- it is 7.3% according to NYU. Houston saw a large increase between 2002 and 2009. In Maricopa County near Phoenix, 131,000 people or 8.6% of the labor force supercommutes. About 13% of the workforce or 427,000 people supercommute in Texas. Prof. Mitchell Moss of New York University, defines a 100 mile plus commute to get to work as a supercommute. His work at NYU's Rudin Center for Transportation shows 1.15 million people supercommuting in 10 major U.S. metropolitan areas. Employers are showing flexibility not wanting to have to dispose off properties, and employees prefer not to uproot families.

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The sense of a forgotten American soldier as the war winds down in Afghanistan and Iraq.

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Dexter Filkins shows here how something is changing that may have been missed by American commanders and the new US administration- the evidence of a crumbling and unpopular feudal structure that the British maintained in Afghanistan to continue the imperial presence, and which has remained that way under the government of Pakistan for the last 50 years. Baitullah Mehsud and other Taliban leaders are from the lower strata of society, the porters and street cleaners and other occupations. The British operated through the malik system of tribal elders who were supposed to maintain order, and the British pretty much left them alone. The Pathan or Pastun people on both sides of the border between Pakistan and Afghanistan are going through some major social changes that are pent up for centuries. The malik system is beiing destroyed on one hand , and on the other hand the Taliban enjoy support among ordinary people in Pathan country as being good Muslims, and in parts of Pakistan itself. This creates a dangerous mix for American forces, popular sentiment of the lower strata and ordinary Afghans, with clandestine support from Islamist officers within the Pakistan army and intelligence services for more sophisticated warfare. Which only means that disproportionate resources would be needed for an expanded American project in Afghnistan, without much to offer in return....

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Spain provides 14 public holidays that are mostly Catholic holidays, and an additional 22 vacation days, which is similiar to the the EU average. Unlike the practice in the U.S. and Britain to have these holidays fall mostly on Fridays and Mondays, in Spain many of these holidays fall in the middle of the week. This disrupts productivity as Spaniards use bridge days or puentes to create long weekends during which many offices and factories are empty, disrupting productivity. Most companies cannot plan for meetings and work because counterparts may be using the bridge days during these holidays, and working with international clients is difficult and hard to explain. Spain's new prime minister is determined to increase Spain's competitiveness, and bring Spain to the level of competitiveness of countries that do well in this measure, including other European and Asian economies. He describes this in his book "En confianza. Mi vida y mi proyecto de cambio para Espana." ("In confidence. My life and project of change for Spain") In his inauguration address he said Spain should correct "the work calendar to make the rights of workers compatible with the competitiveness of our companies." Vacations are a sensitive issue in Spain because tourism generates 10% of GDP and employs 10% of the workers. Alberto Nadal, who addresses labor issues at the main business association in Spain, says a change of mentality is needed in Spain, and doing away with bridges shows Spain is grasping the idea that things should be done differently for the eurozone community of nations. This also shows some of the differences in the Iberian peninsula countries of Spain and Portugal, where the countries are embracing the change and there is less unrest even with high unemployment, as compared to Greece. In Greece the changes are being resisted by politically connected groups, where political parties enjoy little support and there is much unrest, making the project difficult. Mariana Rajoy, Sarkozy and Merkel are from centre right parties in Spain, France and Germany, and have had a close association for years before Rajoy was elected- during EU meetings of centre right parties, as is evident in Rajoy's book. They also share a similiar business and political orientation. ...

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A detailed account by Thomas Schweich, a senior official and deputy in the law enforcement bureau to Anne Patterson, Assistant secretary of State for international narcotics and law enforcement affairs. He talks about how the Pentagon and the UK military have thwarted efforts for aerial eradication of poppy fields which has worked in other countries like Columbia. In fact Anne Patterson was an Ambassador to Columbia and knows about this first hand. He also talks about how through their efforts northern Afghanistan was cleared of poppy fields but how the cultivation has shifted to the south to Helmand and Kandahar provinces. The government officials in these provinces are actively involved in the poppy farms that are being setup there and support Karzai and help him organize the Pashtun vote for coming elections. So Karzai is protecting these officials and because of this opposes aerial eradication and does not support using Afghan Army for land eradication. The military in the U.S. and the UK does not want to take more casualties by turning against them the officials and farmers who support the government, but this is a short sighted policy because this helps make the Taliban insurgency stronger with access to cash and weapons because they also are actively setting up farms in their areas of southern Afghanistan. Aerial eradication takes care of poppy farms in all areas and has been effective in other countries. In the long run the military takes many more casulaties because of the bigger insurgency and Taliban they have to deal with. The military's policy is called "Sequencing," and its basically we'll deal with drugs later which is based on a complete misperception and understanding of the situation facing them. Schweich is in the thick of these battles and has fought them wit courage it appears from this account. He has the support of Secretary of State Rice but has not been able to get the Administration to get Karzai to change the way he is operating. It risks making the situation and insurgency in Afghanistan a lot worse if not corrected. Its a call for action and for educating the public and clearing all the misunderstanding and myths and fog about whats happening in Afghanistan....

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Donald Trump is seen as a polarizing person in Kallstadt, Germany, the home of his dad Fred Trump's father. There are very few signs of the family in the town. The media frenzy is not something the locals like.

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Connors and Magalhaes provide an exceptional account of the work of nine young prosecutors in Brazil, including Deltan Dallagnol, a Harvard trained law graduate, Carlos Santos Lima, a Cornell law graduate, and Paulo de Carvalho, in looking into the corruption and money laundering at Petrobras. Contracts for work given out by Petrobras to construction firms were inflated in value, and 3% of the inflated value was given to executives at Petrobras, or to the fund of the ruling Workers Party of Brazil. Dallagnol is a prosecutor in Curitiba, a small provincial city. He detected unusual movement of money, where a local car wash showed a new Land Rover being gifted to a Petrobras executive, in an apparent money laundering effort. Appointments at high levels are made by the government, and the current president who has not been implicated, was at one time chairman of Petrobras. In Brazil, as in India, Nigeria, and other developing countries, politicians were known to have misused public funds, but were able to act with impunity because the legal system made it difficult to impose strict penalties. The effort by the young prosecutors in Brazil is an effort to bring changes to the legal system so that this type of near impunity no longer exists. It is the first step to bringing serious changes and increasing public awareness for change. The result in Nigeria is a huge loss in Africa, with the electricity system for the entire country the size of what it would take to light up one medium sized American city. In India with the lack of roads and electricity in rural areas of many states, the misuse of public funds is a similiar burden on the people. Brazil is coming out of a borrowing binge in the last ten years which is leading to a credit crunch in the country and near junk bond status for Petrobras, Brazil's largest company, which experts predict will lead to a contraction in the economy in 2015-2016. ...

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The Biden administration's har ghar jal effort, clean drinking water in every home. The Modi administration has made its mark by har ghar jal, drinking water from taps for every home in a country of 1.3 billion people. The US Biden administration will be ensuring the same for clean drinking water free of harmful disease causing chemicals including PFAS contamination. PFAS chemicals are forever chemicals that take a long period to break down. Even lower levels of toxic chemicals can be seriously harmful, says the Biden administration.The head of the Environmental Protection Agency leads this effort by putting 1 billion dollars from last years approved spending into the plan for clean drinking water. 2021 approved spending for Workers and Families plan of Biden has $10 billion for preventing PFAS contamination. Of this the first $1 billion will be made available to affected and most hard hit communities for clean drinking water. Money would go to water quality testing, contractor training and new water treatment systems. In addition Food and Drug Administration agency will tackle testing for food and packaging, Agriculture Department for livestock contamination. Defense Department for checking contamination in military installations. It is a sort of Gati Shakti Master plan that brings in all agencies of government, an approach the Modi administration has adopted for India. One does not have to look far to understand the priorities of the world's two greatest democracies. This is the common struggle in the world's two great democracies to bring a better life for all the people.  "People on the frontline have suffered far too long. That is why Biden is taking aggressive action," says Biden/s man at the EPA Michael Regan.  Mr.Modi says the same thing for har ghar jal campaign for drinking water for 1.3 billion people. ...

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Actas or slips like receipts from every time a voter votes are generated from voting machines in Venezuela. Enough actas were collected in the Venezuela elections that show a landslide win with a 38% margin for Gonzalez over Maduro. The Maduro government has not accepted the result. It shows 7.3 million votes for Gonzalez, a former diplomat, to 3.3 million for Maduro the successor of Chavez, says the Wall Street Journal. For president Biden it was the surge in Venezuelan migrants flow and the refusal of Maduro government to take back migrants making deportation difficult, that precipitated the immigration crisis as an issue in the 2024 elections. The problem was tackled by closing the border with Biden taking executive action, after the law closing the border cleared the Senate in February but was held up in the House by Mr. Trump. Trump hoped to benefit from the Border issue to get elected in November 2024 held it up. That law was negotiated by Republicans McConnell and Lankford and Biden. Kamala Harris says the first thing she will do if elected is to pass that law. Republicans like the Tories in the UK are now seen as pandering on the issue to keep power, not keen on resolving it once and for all. As we show from the example of Mette Frederiksen in Denmark and her far sighted thinking it is possible to be good for workers and families, and tough on immigration that hurts workers by creating like foreign wars a huge and unnecessary distraction. Why for instance must workers and families live from paycheck to paycheck because of misgovernance in Asia or Africa or Arab world ,or deliberately created wars to empty countries of population as in Arab lands. Taking the issue up in the countries themselves with whatever action is needed was the right answer from the beginning, and lost on Merkel and other leaders in the US and Europe. Lessons are learned and now action must be taken. ...

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Sears Holdings spent $1.46 per square foot in 2012 on its stores compared to an average of $9.45 per square foot for Target, Penneys, Walmart, Lowe's and Home Depot, according to this report. Lampert counters this by saying his fund made investments in technology and online retail. Yet Sears stock is up 41% for the year by Oct 2013 largely on the basis that Sears Holdings is worth much more for its parts. Land's End is being put up for sale as well as other pieces of Sears Holdings by Ed Lampert's Hedge Fund ESL Investments.