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The mysterious activities and losses of a South Korean/Japanese venture capital company Softbank which has been part of the massive misallocation of capital away from infrastructure and health care services during the decades before the pandemic. It has emerged recently as the mystery investor in options on tech shares that led to shares losses of 7 billion pounds for Softbank.

It lost half of its value in an earlier dotcom crash. A few investments in China during the early period of its development based on gut feel of the founder, including Alibaba an e-commerce company based on Amazon's success in the U.S. and other investments in China, is the basis of its business model. This model puts huge amounts of U.S. and foreign capital with estimated pool of capital at $100 billion into ventures that set the wrong priorities for investment- leading to misallocation of capital at this time of the pandemic. 

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Aaron Back says this time China is likely to feel the effects of the volatility in the stock markets. The surge in the stock markets added about half a percentage point to GDP growth in the 1st quarter of 2015, according to Capital Economics. GDP growth in the 1st quarter 2015 was 7%. Capital Economics says removing the boost from the stock market to a sluggish economy would mean a loss of 1 percentage point in GDP growth. Equity issuance was one way China hoped to reduce high debt levels at companies, and that avenue would the be that much harder to access to reduce debt levels. Margin financing is about $354 billion, or 3.5% of GDP according to Goldman Sachs, posing another source of problems and potentially affecting growth if stock losses lead to defaults. Declining investor sentiment and confidence in management of the economy would be another casualty in this situation. Only 10% of Chinese households own stocks compared to 50% in the U.S., yet Aaron Back says the effects of this are likely to be felt in lower economic growth and shaken confidence in the economy....

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Zeit Online shows in this article the continued efforts of the Russian government of president Putin to discredit Chancellor Merkel, following efforts to do this for Hillary Clinton in the U.S. presidential election.  During the Ukraine crisis and the settlement accords of 2014 Germany was seen as a partner by Russia, following sanctions, and renewal of these sanctions Russia no longer sees Germany as a partner. This report shows Russian efforts to discredit chancellor Merkel and the use of RT German channel, WikiLeaks reports of Chancellor Merkel and the TTIP agreement, for the same purpose. The refugee crisis following what is happening in Syria with Russian involvement, terrorism, financial crisis aftermath from 2008, are being used  says Zeit Online to support a movement for "order" as the state ideology now put forward from the Russian government. This could be an early indicator for the 2017 German federal elections, says Zeit Online. Merkel has said that she supports continuation of western sanctions on Russia. It is hard to see what Russia has gained in improving its economy and the standard of living of the people from this type of political action. Putin was able to achieve economic goals during 2005-2010 using good Germany- Russian relations as shown in LyrArc. This was the earlier period of Putin's terms in office, with a broad group of advisors, including finance minister Kudrin, who set forward a prudent economic course for Russia including foreign investment. The world and Russia are poorer from the departure from this earlier set of policies which would have enhanced Russia's economic growth. Kudrin was fired in September 2011, and the economic course has gradually drifted away from what is most prudent for the Russian economy and growth, and for the global economy. Nationalism was part of an earlier period before 1950, that led to frequent wars and economic catastrophes. A new course has been set since then, especially by American presidents Truman and Eisenhower, and people in India, China, the developing world, in Europe and in the U.S., would see little to gain from the politics of that earlier period in world relations.  ...

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India's challenges in securing $1.3 trillion in capital over 5 years for infrastructure spending. This is needed including capital from the private sector to support government funding, so that India can build the infrastructure to create new manufacturing hubs that compete with China as the world's manufacturing workplace. The Biden administration's determination to compete effectively with China using is own supply chain in Asia, and the EU's plan to follow what the Biden administration does, is likely to create a new kind of environment by 2024-2025 that will create a steady flow of capital to India and other parts of Asia to finance this effort for rebuilding its supply chain. The Biden administration is seeking to build a culture change from the old culture pushed by Reagan type free marketers that delivered lost decades in manufacturing and jobs in manufacturing for the US. Biden's State of the Union message was clear- "Folks we're just getting started. We're just getting started." By 2024-2025 the Adani story may just be a footnote to this story as other manufacturers and investors pick up the infrastructure challenges facing the US, EU and India for a new supply chain for the Free World built around self-reliance. The Ukraine war and China incidents such as one that happened recently, will accelerate the rebuilding of the new supply chain on the part of the US and the EU with partners in Asia. And change decades old assumptions and trade relationships over months, not years. ...

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Bradsher, Tankersley and Cohen say in this NYT report- US industrial policy under president Biden corrects the failures of the past. Chinese experts in Hong Kong say the US and Europe deindustrialized their economies with pursuing of policies called "neo-liberal" but basically Reagan era policies that Democratic presidents Clinton-Obama imitated. As they deindustrialized it created disaffection among the struggling lower and middle income classes making $35,000-$106,000 that were big losers in the process, creating threats to democracy as financial and tech, plus pharmaceutical sectors took control of the economy. China's success comes from three decades of mastering the ways of practicing industrial policy that it can support private companies with low cost land, additional subsidies that reduce the cost of production and provide a buffer to absorb losses so that it could dominate key industries. Policies where textbooks and economists trained in the US failed utterly and completely leading to dangers to US democracy that we see as opportunities for good paying jobs in manufacturing disappeared for middle and lower income households from 1980 to 2020. These economists trained in the US always said see lower cost Chinese made goods means lower and middle income people pay less, never saying that this means all opportunities for better paying jobs in manufacturing will be lost for these classes in society. The tech and financial sectors had close ties to the new arrangement that turned manufacturing over to China from the Reagan era to the Obama and Trump era. Apple and Tesla and many industries benefitted from manufacturing mostly outsourced to China. ...

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Tesla with a tiny falling market share of 6% in China is being outmaneuverd in China even as it gains benefits for the company and for CEO Elon Musk. It fails to make Tesla competitive in world markets ceding leadership to China.  Tesla gets 68% of 2023 profits of $10 billion from China operations. China operations of Tesla produced 947,000 electric cars 53% of its total with China sales at 600,000. Tesla was able to complete the large factory near Shanghai, the largest of its 7 plants, in record time with assistance from China's government. Elon Musk knows premier Li Qiang of China a Shanghai Communist party official which facilitated the building the Chinese plant, lower 15% tax rate instead of 25% till 2023. This 2023 1 million car production is actually not giving Tesla a foothold in the Chinese market, as Tesla's market share is falling from 7.8% to 6% of the market. What it has given China's local companies such as BYD is a world level competitor for China's local companies to compete with, learn from as China develops its own world class electric manufacturing capabilities. BYD has its own unique battery technology and is making the batteries in house. Local companies dominate a very competitive landscape in which there is very little room for error, with companies consolidating. This suggests that Tesla may be an insignificant competitor in China in the future even as it has enhanced its profitability as a company in its domestic American market with its China operation.   ...

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The China Banking Regulatory Commission points to dangers of the Non Performing Loans ratio rebounding and serious risks in the financial sector from bad loans. CBRC chairman, Liu Mingkang, points to the risks associated with local-government financing platforms, and the real estate sector and industries with excess capacity, in the 128 page report for 2009 shown on its website. And he points out that fundamental cracks and flaws internationally, that were exposed by the global financial criis of 2008, have still to be resolved. He cites the regulatory issues, "too-big-to-fail" issue for large financial institutions, cross-sector and cross-country risk contagion toxic assets, and the budget deficits facing European countries, as major issues posing systemic risk.

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Pakistan foreign reserves dropped to $5 billion says the Financial Times, and the rupee is at 255 to the US dollar. Inflation is at 25%. The situation is precarious as it negotiates with the IMF and much of the budget goes to debt servicing for $41 billion owed to international financial institutions and $30 billion to China.

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The U.S. trade deficit with China was declining till the coronavirus hit in February. Now it is back on the way up, a warning signal for the Trump administration as it seeks to stop sending American wealth out of the country in an utterly disproportionate way of $346 billion in just 2019 after taking action on tariffs and renegotiating trade agreements.  Imports grew 11% in July to $231 billion. While exports increased but not as much by 8.1% to $168 billion in July, still well below February/s $209 billion. That leaves a trade gap of $63 billion. This is the largest trade deficit since July 2008. The U.S. trade deficit is a major issue and is watched carefully as the Trump administration sets a goal of rebalancing world trade so that the U.S. no longer runs such large trade deficits with China, and Germany, and does not shift wealth overseas. The U.S. trade deficit with China in 2019 was $346 billion, with Japan and Germany it is much smaller close to $70 billion for each country. The Trump administration goal is to all out reduce this deficit through trade agreements and other actions that stop the current outflow of U.S. wealth overseas by $1 billion a day to just one country. For this it seek a level playing field which means other countries have to face tariffs if they unfairly subsidize their industries or violate labor rights for unfair competition, or in other ways seek to unfairly gain an advantage over the U.S. including through transfer of technologies from the U.S. ...

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Oil prices in the U.S. drop to $55 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange, and $65 a barrel for Brent crude price. Earlier expectation of the impact of reimposed sanctions on Iranian oil shrinking global oil supplies have been reversed with increased production from Saudi Arabia, Russia and the U.S.

Another new development that caused this reversal in sentiment is that the Trump administration granted waivers to some buyers of Iranian crude oil. The U.S. trade dispute with China has also added to this with lower growth forecasts. Unlike in previous years OPEC or Saudi Arabia cannot by itself shrink global supplies with production cuts. The U.S. and Russian output also plays a significant part.

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Companies now realize that stretched supply chains is a risky business. Shipping costs have tripled and in some cases are ten times what they were before the pandemic. Logistics, containers, shipping, manufacturing in remote locations, is making this more complex and unmanageable. Cuts in coal consumption in China and economic recovery is pushing up demand for oil leading to $80 a barrel in oil prices. Outages in factories in south east Asian countries and China are leading to shortages in semiconductors and other products in the supply chain. This is affecting automobile production and other production affected by lack of such inputs.

This is prompting a serious rethink of existing supply chains.

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Robert Kagan makes the case for continued leadership of the U.S as a champion of liberal democracy and free trade, as the view that it will just happen in a multipolar world of China, India, the U.S. and Europe, is not credible. The existing democracies- India, Brazil, Turkey, S. Africa, Australia -are weak and lack the experience to provide this leadership. India and China could easily end up in rivalry in a multipolar world. This has implications for today. The U.S. cannot provide this leadership as a services economy- it needs a strong manufacturing base to do this. Lessening inequality was a hallmark of the progress made in the 20th century, and especially the six decades since World War II when the U.S. clearly exercized this leadership. The progress to European unity was another hallmark of these six decades. A healthy Japan was also part of this.

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The other title of this article in the NYT was "California's fading Political Machines and volatile race for Governor." Gone are the days when Pat Brown was able to put his son Jerry Brown in the race for governor, there are 9 persons running for governor of California in 2026. The current governor Gavin Newsom is said to be promoting his book in Nashville, Tennessee, where many Californians are moving with the inflated cost of housing in the state. Gavin Newsom's grand father gave a $5000 check to Pat Brown in 1943 to run for District Attorney, this report says citing the book. From that time Pat Brown became Attorney General and then governor of California in 1958, defeating Richard Nixon in 1962. In 1962 Pat Brown seemed vulnerable as his signature accomplishment setting up the UC system of college campuses and the water reservoir, tax increases to pay for this, were in their beginning stages and their lasting value not recognized at the time. Nixon from Whittier, California, was a former Vice President and was seen as likely winner. This toughly fought election created the Pat Brown myth and so called machine that helped his son Jerry Brown to two terms as governor 1975 to 1983, and again after serving as Mayor of Oakland and Attorney General to come back to governors race again in 2011 (because term limits came after 2011) and be governor again 2011-2018. Another way of looking at it is that in his last two terms it was also Jerry Brown's careful balancing of the budget and finances of the state, his environmental support, that made him a reliable figure for the public interest not just the political machine backing him.  California to be sure has had popular governors on both sides Reagan won in 1966 as governor of California to succeed Pat Brown. The Kennedys and Pat Brown are matched by the Reagan supporters in the state. In today's situation where China's dominance in industry and manufacturing has affected all parts of deindustrialized America, California is no exception, where much of the middle class has seen their savings eroded, the issues are different and the challenges are different. ...

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Under a proposed capital infusion into Peugeot the French government, Dongfeng Motor of China, and the Peugeot family would each control 15% of the company. Dongfeng and the French government would buy new shares of about $7.50 to $8 each, and providing 800 million euros each. The Peugeot family would provide 100 million euros. Currently the Peugeot family controls 25.4% of the shares and 38.1% of voting rights. Earlier GM sold its 7% stake in Peugeot, and Peugeot turned to its partner in China for the capital increase. Peugeot shares declined by 11% to 10.21 euros on Jan 23, 2014, as a result of investor concerns about the prospect of three different shareholders interests. Peugeot expects to use the capital increase for technology investments as it struggles to come out of a prolonged slump in its European markets. One of the conditions made by Dongfeng Motor is that the current chairman Thierry Peugeot be succeeded by an executive not connected to the Peugeot family or the French government....

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Yan Xuetong, is professor of political science and dean of the Institute of Modern International Relations at Tsinghua University, Beijing. He is the author of Ancient Chinese Thought, Modern Chinese Power. In this essay translated from the Chinese, Xuetong says China's new leaders should borrow ideas from ancient Chinese philosophers and theorists like Guanzi, Confucius, Xunzi and Mencius who pointed to the importance of morally informed leadership as the key to success in the long term. Xuetong presents this as the best way for China to compete with the U.S. At the same time it gives Xuetong a basis for calling on the new Chinese leadership to create a less unequal society, with attention paid to social justice and balanced development free from corruption, similiar to the calls made in the U.S.

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Common sense comes to the German Border with Merz and the national emergency rule at the border, just as has happened under DJT at the US Border. May 8-25 turned back at Germany's borders with 9 European countries about 100 persons- success of national emergency rule at the German Border. This relieves not only pressure on public services in German towns and cities, it also removes a source of anxiety in the people who experienced political divisions and random attacks in public spaces from migrants. It also removes the threats of extreme factions in politics that have used the migrant crisis for exacerbating political divisions. Merkel's policy was not workable from the beginning and based on assumptions that were not correct as Germany and the EU could do more to improve the modernization and improving health and education, industry and agriculture inside Asia, North Africa to help the people in these regions than by taking in migrants. Who has ever suggested migration to Europe or the US  as a solution to the problems of China and India in the 1930's and 1940's, from wars and even famines. The right solutions of decolonization turning back invasions into the 1940's, and providing technology and capital for modernization after 1950 and accelerating this after 2000 have created two modernized nations of 2 billion people. ...

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South Korea has tested about 300,000 people for coronavirus. About 20,000 can be tested daily for coronavirus through 40 drive thru locations. South Korea invented this method of testing. Another feature of the South Korean method is the tracking down of people who have come into contact with those testing positive for coronavirus. The South Korean government is able to do this because it can access the credit card and cell phone information of people in the country. This is possible through laws that were passed after the failures during a previous epidemic of MERs. The government then tracks down and isolates the people who came into contact with infected persons. This includes people who show no symptoms, an important aspect of the South Korean program which needs to be adopted in other countries once the production of test kits and testing is ramped up. The reason is that about 30% of people who tested positive in South Korea were not showing any symptoms but acted as silent carriers. This is similar to the figures for people in the Wuhan region of China. This testing capability is one of South Korea's key strengths, though Germany's Robert Koch Institute says it has a similar capability to test 160,000 people a week. The U.S. has tested about 30,000 people by comparison. The U.S. government is procuring 60,000 test kits under the Defense Production Act. South Korea also enforces social distancing though a $2500 fine and a 1 year prison sentence. Germany now has a 2500 euros fine in some states for curfew violations.  By comparison the fine in Britain is insignificant.  Another difference between China and South Korea with Germany and the rest of Europe, the U.S., is that in China and South Korea self-isolation is monitored, tightening the control over coronavirus spread at every turn.   ...

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Chrysler-Fiat's efforts to ramp up Jeep's global sales in 2012-2014. Plans to build 120,000 Jeeps annually in St. Petersburg. Chrysler CEO Marchionne sees Jeep as Chrysler's global brand. The problem with sales in Russian and Chinese markets is price, because of high import duties. In Russia this can add upto $22,000 to price, and in China $37,000. This put Jeep prices in Russia at about $86,000 for a Grand Cherokee, forcing it to compete with luxury SUV's like Land Rover. Production locally in Russia and China should make Jeep prices competitive. For covering the international market Chrysler's plan is to build 6 Jeep models with new designs for a sleeker appearance as a lifestyle vehicle. In the past the Jeep was seen largely as a off-road SUV in emerging markets rather than a lifestyle vehicle.

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What happened to all those bicycles in China, the reintroduction of bicycles after the boom in automobiles, and to bike share schemes worldwide, is the subject of this report in BBC's Future Planet.

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Oil prices using the Brent crude benchmark drop to $113 a barrel this week with further declines expected as the Saudis are now prepared to increase oil production to support the US in its deterrence campaign against Russia and China. Saudis under Prince Salman will do this in exchange for security guarantees against Yemeni rebels and Iranian attacks.

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About 24,000 Chinese people from China took the route through Ecuador to the Darien Gap and then to the US border with Mexico. This is the fourth largest group after Venezuelans, Guatemalans and other migrants entering the US. Out of 1.3 million people in the US with orders to be deported 100,000 are Chinese, says this report in NYT.

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Over $700 million in aid was provided in 2013 to struggling Chinese automakers from the central and local governments in an overcrowded industry, according to Wind Information Company. Companies receiving aid include Dongfeng Motor, BYD, Geely, Great Wall Motor, Guangzhou Automobile. Both domestic and foreign makers of cars are increasing capacity in an oversupplied market as sales decelerate. Domestic brands market share is declining compared to foreign car makers. Domestic makers market share declined to 37.1% in April 2014 from 39.6% in 2013, according to the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers. Ford Motor has added large SUV capacity to increase sales, and VW plans to increase capacity further. By 2015, overcapacity in China's market could reach 8 million cars, according to UBS Securities.

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S. Jaishankar, Indian Foreign Minister speaks at the University of Delhi on his chapter in the new book Modi@20 Dreams meet Delivery. He also discusses the war in Ukraine, the Indian view on people and shortages created by the war of energy and food, and India's approach to Pakistan and China.

 

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China's rapidly aging population is leading to a new problem of rapidly increasing rural suicides. With urbanization about half of the people over 60 have no adult children living with them and 10% live alone. With meagre savings there are more suicides in isolated communities. 

Over two decades the number of people over 65 has risen from 7% of the population to 12%. The one-child policy is only partly to blame. A rapid drop in births as seen in Latin America was also taking place in China with urbanization and modernization.

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Out of a world population of 8 billion, the population of the Middle East and the Gulf region is about 400 million, or just 5% of the population with 90% of the wars since the 1970's. Keeping this region denuclearized is of fundamental interest to the major population centers in north and south America, Europe including Russia as western civilization, and India and China which have embraced western civilization and it's scientific revolutions. Russians and Americans see themselves as part of western civilization. On this point there is no difference, none, it is only who is the more important and whose view of the world is right. Asian civilization including China and India see the benefits of western civilization, of the Renaissance, the Enlightenment and the Scientific Revolution and embrace it wholeheartedly and wish it had come sooner on of their own volition and intent. Other than the Korean and Vietnam wars fought in their origins against the Japanese and the French colonialism and Empires, the wars of the Middle East since the end of colonialism stand out. In Iraq, Iran, Syria, Afghanistan, Yemen the only other major wars since the 1970's there are religious and ethnic wars that are of no interest to the people of three continents Europe, Americas, and East and South Asia, for whom the spread of nuclear weapons to the Gulf region brings nothing but dangerous developments for their peoples and for the peace of the world. ...