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Any hopes that the U.S. would compromise on its position on trade issues were dampened after the G-7 Summit meetings in Canada. Europe and Canada are frustrated at their inability to move Mr. Trump on trade issues. Mr. Trump made jabs on trade, terrorism and immigration during 2 days of meetings. There is also uncertainty about the NAFTA though trade negotiations on NAFTA continue in Quebec. Trump says the negotiations were friendly and moving along until Mr. Trudeau made his own remarks about not being pushed around by its larger neighbor. On some issues there is not even an agreement on facts as president Trump says the U.S. has a trade deficit of $100 billion with Canada, Trudeau says the U.S. has a surplus. Trump says the high cost dairy industry is protected by Canada.

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The work of key Ministries in India is tracked by the Hindusthan Times in March 2018 showing the progress of the Modi government. At the Defense Ministry  a major effort is underway to promote the defense sector to reduce the defense imports of $100 billion over the last decade, and to make this a major jobs generating sector. The Foreign Ministry is pursuing the China-India dialogue, and efforts to tackle the trade deficit with China of $51 billion. The Ministry of Education is working on giving universities autonomy from the Universities Grant Commission so that first tier universities can plan their own development, hire faculty and plan for the future without UGC approval. Jawaharlal Nehru University and the University of Hyderabad, first tier institutions have autonomy from UGC under this effort. 

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Germany, the UK and Canada offer additional models for health care insurance that vastly improve results for dollar spent over the dysfunctional U.S. model. Here Jamie Daw take a look at the German social health insurance system which dates back to hte period of Bismarck in 1884. The German system is funded through progressive taxation which charges for healthcare based on incomes not on health needs.

About 100 nonprofit health insurers provide insurance and all Germans are required to have health insurance. Contributions to sickness funds are centrally pooled and allocated using a formula to insurers. Insurers can only charge small out of pocket fees limited to 2% of income annually. Sickness funds combine market power to negotiate lower prices.

Administrative and governance costs are 3% in Canadian system and 5% in the German system. 

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This report in The Economist shows how Nairobi is coping with years of haphazard and disorganized development. As land prices jumped new investment has led to a unregulated disorganized building boom that has affected rivers and sanitation. The city's water supply and colonial era sewers are barely coping, says the Economist. To try to fix this the city has launched a demolition campaign for 4000 buildings. Meanwhile Nairobi's population has grown by 1.5 million over the 2009 figure of 3.1 million. Projects to build 200,000 low income housing is also underway. Four problems need to be tackled- a skills shortage, insufficent government investment, enforcement and rule of law, and last rent seeking typical of underdeveloped countries with corruption, complicating the tasks ahead. The biggest problem is large population growth for most African cities.

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The U.S. financial sector is facing a future in which there will be lower revenues and a smaller number of jobs. A low interest rate environment does not help the banks. According to analysts surveyed by Bloomberg, net revenue for the six largest U.S. banks will decline by 3.7% in the second quarter of 2011. As a result financial stocks in the U.S. have trailed the broader market in the last 9 of 11 months. The ratio of the price of the S&P 500 financials index to the S&P 500 stock index is less than 0.16. The only time it was less than 0.16 in the last two decades is during the January-April 2009 period when banks were facing a major financial crisis. Bank of America's stock was at a two year low on June 6. Tighter regulation, state and federal investigations, and higher capital requirements from the Fed, will affect revenues and jobs.

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Analysis by the Wall Street Journal shows companies in the S&P 500 stock index earned second quarter profits of $189 billion. This was up 38% from 2009, without the inflation adjustment. For all American companies, Commerce Department estimates second quarter after tax profits rose to an annual rate of $1.208 trillion, up 3.9% from the first quarter, and up 26.5% from year earlier. Companies are doing this with layoffs of workers, closing less profitable units, and shifting work to cheaper locations, and introducing more efficient processes. Texas Instruments shut down a unit making cellphones, Electronic Arts pruned its videogames by about 50%. These profit increases were achieved by reducing costs on flat or declining sales compared to 2008, just prior to the financial crisis. Companies are not expected to increase spending through new hiring or adding equipment in the current economic environment. From the Journal's analysis of the 500 S&P companies, it shows sales were 6% less than 2008, with second quarter profits 10% higher....

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The ECB's second phase of the Long Term Financing Operation provides 800 European banks with 529 billion euros in 3 year loans at 1%. The impact of the first phase in Dec. 2011 with 489 billion euros in loans was greater on borrowing rates for Italy and Spain than it was this time. The larger number of banks participating in Feb, 2012- 800 banks compared to 523 banks- with many smaller banks included, is expected to provide a boost for lending to small and midsize businesses in Europe. The total net amount of liquidity added as a result of the operation in the two phases is expected to be 520 billion euros, as some of the loans were a transfer of existing loans to the longer term 3 year loans provided under the Long Term Financing Operation. The operation has helped bring confidence to the European banking system and will help the recapitalization of European banks.

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The importance of time and compound interest in investing cannot be overstated. Over long time horizons steady saving and investing using index funds such as Vanguard with low expenses can take advantage of compound interest to generate good returns. This happens for a strategy of dollar-cost averaging into broad indexes over longer horizons. The longer horizons help overcome fluctuations and volatility, even bubble behaviours, as compound interest plays a larger role. Investing based on timing is not viable because no one is prescient about the market. It is risky if this route of timing is taken because the investor ends up staying out of the market for long periods thus missing out on the power of compound interest to generate good returns. One way of looking at this is to take a $100 investment and see what happens by the sixth year on a calculator if it is invested at 10%, in the sixth year it generates 16% on the original $100.

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Britain's banks still owe the government 100 billion pounds ($158 billion) from the bailouts that followed the 2008 financial crisis. The incentivizing of risk by pay structures and bonuses was seen as a big part of the problem. LIBOR manipulation abuses by banks are still on regulators minds. The Financial Conduct Authority and the Bank of England's Prudential Regulation Authority, have set new rules to correct the problem. Earlier EU rules limited bonuses to 100% of salary. The new FCA rules require a 3 year period for traders and risk managers have to wait 5 years for performance awards in full. Top executives have a ten year wait to be certain claw back provisions do not go into effect. Andrey Bailey at the PRA says the rule is designed so "that people in positions of responsibility are rewarded for behaviour which fosters a culture of effective risk management and thus promotes the safety and soundness of individual institutions. "

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California, New York and Washington are  three states, with 30 other cities in the U.S., and 100 large businesses, forming the U.S. Climate Alliance, saying they will  follow the Paris agreement on climate change. Former Mayor Bloomberg of New York City is organizing the effort, and he says in the U.S. it is cities, states and businesses that actually do the work of reducing emissions, not the federal government. Bloomberg said: "The fact of the matter is Americans don't need Washington to meet our Paris commitment." Governor Jerry Brown of California says the response will be for California and other states to set even bolder standards for reducing emissions.

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There appears to be a conscious deliberate decision by the Chinese government and policymakers to shift the economy from low-end technologically unsophisticated and polluting industry, that pays low wages with little worker protections, towards technologically sophisticated, environment respecting, and higher wage industry. This does not mean textiles are out, but textile companies that are larger better managed, able to introduce newer technologies and produce higher quality product- that command higher prices in the world market and therefore also able to sustain decent wages and worker protection- are in. Phasing out the smaller shops and the poorly run or deliberately polluting and labor exploiting companies run from Hong Kong or elsewhere. The general shift is to be a leader in products which are value added either by technology or human capital, such as better trained more knowledgeable workers. This is similiar to the shift Japan made after the sixties, as it moved from a rural to a urbanized society and textile companies like Kanebo became technologically sophisticated, while small shops withered out, and Japan gradually shifted into automobiles, electronics and chip making. The noticeable difference is that Japan with a prewar industrial base and a smaller market protected its home market for Japanese companies, whereas China lacking this prewar industrial base let foreign investment and companies overseas bring in equipment and use low cost Chinese labor to supply western markets. And it turned a blind eye to labor protections, at least till it had built up its own industrial base and knowhow with policy requiring Chinese partners in industry and technology transfer. Economic winds are also doing the job. Inflation, Chinese goods prices increased by 4.6% in May according to the U.S. Commerce Department. This is a result of the Chinese government requiring worker protections and decent wages and stricter pollution enforcement resulting in increased energy costs. For years the U.S. and other countries depended on China for low cost goods and the demand for low cost goods depressed margins which resulted in legitmate costs such as pollution control technology, worker protection and decent wages, being ignored. China is now left with heavy environmental cleanup costs, and a bad image internationally as a heavy polluter. The huge external trade surpluses China has built up exceeding a trillion dollars have pushed up the value of the yuan making Chinese goods costlier in world markets, and apparel and shoe makers in developed countries seeing Vietnam as a better lowcost alternative. The story of this phase of Chinese industrial development can be seen in a town like Honghe, a 90 minute drive from Shanghai, which has half of its 100,000 residents working in 100 factories and 8000 shops that knit, dye, package and ship some 200 million sweaters a year, bringing in according to local government estimates $650 million a year. Now many of these shops are idle and mirant workers are returning home. To see the subtler signs of the Chinese policymakers hand note that even visa policies have been tightened to make it harder for foreign buyers to visit Chineses factories and trade shows. Also the Chinese government has raised the minimum age for workers in these factories from 16 to age 18 and so on. And the impact is being felt in places like Honghe near Shanghai, Shengzhou another city near Shanghai which makes one third of the world's neckties, and in Dongguan in Guangdong where its toy, shoes shops close. The change also shows how quickly things can change in the world economy. Only 3 years earlier in 2005, Jiaxing Yishangmei Fashion Company, a family owned company was booming and had just landed Walmart Stores as a customer. Now Walmart no longer sources from this company. Analysts say that the Chinese sweater industry was probably overbuilt, with about 6 cities in China claiming to produce more than 100 million sweaters annually. A wave of consolidation could boost efficiency, and bring pressures to innovate rater than compete only on price. And many Chinese economists, and policymakers think China has relied too much on cost-cutting and simple production models to increase exports. A researcher at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences thinks such a high dependence on foreign trade is not good for China. For the US and Japan this researcher says that trade is equivalent to 20% of gross national product and by contrast for China trade is equivalent to an extreme of 75% of GNP. ...

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The 50 day Shanghai Composite index fell below the 200 day Shanghai Composite index in June 2011. This results in what is called a "death cross," or a long term bearish pattern. The last time this occurred in March 2010, the index went up slightly for a month before going on a 25% drop .

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Dylann Roof, a 21 year old white youth shoots nine people at a historic black church in Charleston, South Carolina. He is reported to have racist views and had a car license plate showing the Confederate flag. About 500 people carrying signs "Take down the flag," rallied outside the Statehouse in Columbia, South Carolina.

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The ECB's effort to attract talent from national central banks to fulfill its role as supervisor of 7000 banks in the eurozone countries by the second half of 2014. Supervisors who are hired will be located at the ECB's headquarters in Frankfurt. The ECB positions offer attractive perks for young workers with families and children.

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Abbott Labs acquisition of Piramal Healthcare for $3.7 billion gives it 7% of the Indian market. Acccording to IMS Health emerging markets drug sales for 17 countries went up from $42 billion in 2000 to 126 billion in 2009. Anlysts expect 70% of global growth to come from these areas in next 5 years.

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China's BYD started in electric batteries and expanded into electric cars. It has emerged as the dominant electric car company in the world as China now has half of the electric cars on the road in the world. 35% of exports of electric cars are from China. Keith Bradsher of NYT reports from Shenzen that its first car was made in 2007 of poor quality, similar to Toyota in the 1930's as it tried car manufacturing for the first time. It has surpassed Tesla in making electric cars. In each of the last 2 years it has increased electric car sales by one million to reach electric car sales on 3 million. EV sales in China were up in 2023 to 9.49 million cars giving BYD the largest share of 31%., by comparison US electric car sales were 1.2 million. New assembly lines are being built in Brazil, Hungary and Thailand. And new lines are planned for Mexico and Indonesia. This kind of growth was seen only by General Motors in 1946 after the end of the war. It also shows the progress China is making. In solar panels something like the addition of 900 million solar panels meeting the entire increase in electricity demand for each year, so that emissions targets can be met earlier than planned to tackle climate change.  The same changes are happening in electric cars. China now has 40% of electric cars or gasoline/electric plug in cars going up to 50%. For export China is building large carrier ships, the first that will take 5000 cars for export to the Netherlands. The lowest priced electric car model the Seagull was priced at $11,000. BYD's lowering of manufacturing costs have given it the ability to price the cars to attract new car buyers.  Wang Chuanfu who studied at Central Southern University in Changsha known for its battery research, was an engineer who started the company in the 1990's to make batteris for Motorola. Between 2003-2006 he experimented with making cars in the hope of making electric cars. Stalled efforts in 2009 and 2011 were met with arenewed effort in 2016 trying a new approach to cut costs by developing a battery where supplies of lithium or cobalt would not be a constraint. He developed a new battery using iron and phospate to replace lithium cobalt batteries. A big break came in 2020 with the Blade battery that increased range to the level of cobalt lithium batteries at a much smaller cost. BYD hired German Audi designers for new model design. This time BYD was in the right position to build a car company matching all others with costs lower by about 35% than VW for some models. This comes from- lower costs to make in China, making its own parts inside the company for 75% of parts compared to VW only about 35%, and by the savings from its battery research.  BYD has shown ability to shift with market needs and opportunities. In 2022 assisted driving was facing hurdles, BYD had second thoughts about the new technology, by 2023 as it was increasing in use BYD committed $14 billion in autonomous driving technology. Driving range is a problem for people in urban areas going back to their villages in China. BYD has an advantage here compared to Tesla- it makes hybrid plug ins that account for half its sales. Toyota has also had emphasis on hybrid plug ins where it missed the opportunity was that it moved very slowly on all electric cars not realizing how fast things were moving outside it's world. This is the situation America also faces in 2024 and beyond who can deliver on the infrastructure capabilities, new research ,and tap American potential to compete in this new world where one innovation will follow another. ...

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"It may be that this iron curtain is small, unimportant and justified, but it is a bad sign." Howard Buffett took a stand in the House of Representatives against the VOA broadcasts being used inside the US in 1947.  Warren Buffett is the son of Congressman Howard Buffett of Omaha, Nebraska, who was on the Board of Education of Omaha, started a small stock brokerage firm, and ran for US Congress in 1942, reelected twice and in 1950. He also ran Howard Taft's Republican presidential campaign in 1952. Looking at Buffett in the FDR-Truman years- one sees a young Buffett in contrast to Warren Buffet's silence on the 2008 financial crisis, raising serious issues- about the Truman doctrine in 1947 on the floor of Congress, was Acheson falling dominoes analogy a dangerous one?  It worked in Turkey-Greece with $400 million in aid in 1947 but was Acheson/Truman using a dangerous analogy of dominoes that would later hurt the US in French colonial Indochina wars, and in the reference to protecting oil resources in Middle east in Iran, Iraq and Saudi to lead to wars that exist to this day in 2024? Wars DJT and Biden have both opposed in contrast to Reagan, Bush, and Obama. There is a huge contrast between the father Howard Buffett, descendent of Huguenot ancestors from 1600 New York, and the finance professional Warren Buffett who went to Columbia University in 1951-52 as student of Prof. Graham with 70 years in finance during which financial crises destabilized the US with Buffett not taking a stand. One hedge fund manager say it is pure nepotism to pass on the company Berkshire to Warren's son Howie. But he is not surprised- who else would be sure to keep the company headquarters in Omaha, keep things simple invested in index funds and much of it in a few companies leaving the investing to managers chosen by Warren, with Howie's job to make sure his father's principles remain. Howie is Warren Buffett's 70 year old son, who Buffett 90 years is setting up as his successor as chairman who will not do investing leaving it to managers, yet be able to change CEO's. Howie worked for a few years at See Candy, a Berkshire owned company before becoming corporate VP at ADM food producer, followed by working on his own farm in Decatur, Illinois which he enjoyed doing. At ADM Howie left after an anti trust investigation began, in which the company was charged with $100 antitrust fines for price fixing says the WSJ. What is Berkshire Hathaway? It is a trillion dollars of investment funds invested in a few companies under name Berkshire Hathaway, using some of the basic ideas of Benjamin Graham, a pioneer in careful investing, adopted by Warren. Where has Buffett put his money? Berkshire top ten investments are- about $90 billion in Apple, $70 billion split between Bank of America and American Express, $30 billion in Coca Cola, and $30 billion split between 2 oil companies Chevron and Occidental. He has not invested in pharmaceuticals or in renewable energy- in just a piece of America.This has generated a compound interest of about 14% over 3-5 years and about 12% over 10 years. He holds 30% of his investments in cash or fixed, mostly cash at this time. And holds the remaining 70% in stocks. ...

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Japan's economy minister, Mr. Seko, says that with no-deal Brexit Britain will lose access to Japan's new economic partnership agreement with the European Union which last month created the world's largest free trade zone. Seko said 1000 Japanese companies have invested in the UK creating 150,000 jobs, because it served as "a gateway to the European market."

Nissan is scaling back its Sunderland factory. Sony and Panasonic are relocating their EU headquarters to Amsterdam. Honda will close its Swindon plant in 2021. Seko said "uncertainty for the consequences of Brexit is spreading in Japanese industry."

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The DJT US message is being heard in Europe and Canada say Hague- that borders matter, that bureaucracy needs to be cut, that spending is needed on infrastructure and defense. Starmer in Britain, Carney in Canada, and Merz in Germany are setting the new direction. With it comes the need for what Hague calls "anchoring," the need to build this without the chaotic nature of events that has resulted in DJT'S 100 days, communicating and winning support across many diverse segments of the population.

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The difficulties the new U.S. Treasury Secretary faces as she tries to navigate the politics in Congress and the tries to reach out to moderates and progressives within the Democratic party. All have different views on spending, and where stimulus money should go in a second stimulus. Her long experience with the Fed is seen as not preparing her for the political role of evaluating different opinions that are described by some experts as ten times more political than anything going on in Fed meetings. As a student of Prof. Tobin Yellen sees government intervention as needed in times of economic crises. Twice in ten years the U.S. and the rest of the world has been struck by economic crises- the bank leveraging behaviours and poor lending practices that induced the 2009 financial crisis and in 2020 the coronavirus pandemic. Lessons learned Yellen says about the 2009 recession are that not enough stimulus was provided after the initial stimulus to get a strong enough recovery. Democrats are eager to spend over $2 trillion in a second stimulus. Republicans much less so particularly with a new president. Even under Mr. Trump spending was set at under $700 billion by Republicans for a second stimulus. Another economic crises is one of the U.S. strategic economic position in the world. On this issue of trade Yellen's husband George Akerloff, also a economist is more skeptical of the value of free trade. The failure of the World Trade Organization to ensure a level playing field as China subsidized key industries, and the loss of America's manufacturing advantage over three decades is now the defining issue in American politics. It takes the shape of manufacturing communities that were once a part of Democratic party support shifting away after devastated local economies from the loss of manufacturing plants to China. It takes the shape of a Republican party that is committed to bring back American manufacturing, and a Democratic party that under Biden is seeking the same result. How much each party will invest in terms of making things happen to get this done is one of the issues facing all parties, Congress, the administration, Ms. Yellen, and the new president. Economics does not have the answers. As economists could not have predicted the increase in women participation in the workforce, the drop in Black and Hispanic unemployment rates under the Trump administration. The lack of moral will to get trade to work for the American worker was more of an issue under Democratic and Republican administrations for the last 2 decades, so that issues of growing inequality were never better addressed by any party. It depended more on focus of the president elected to help American workers, and to avoid the cost and distraction of foreign wars when American interests could be protected in other ways. Yellen was not able to make a difference at the Fed because of these reasons and low interest rates have both helped and hurt the middle class, as low interest rates meant Americans were less able to accumulate savings for retirement since 2000. Determination and action counts for more than ideology or policy is the lesson learned in building strong economies and manufacturing.   ...

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Deepening frustration and economic diffficulties in Iran over sanctions. The Iranian currency, the rial, loses a third of its value.

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The U.S. responds to Iran's threat to close the Straits of Hormuz, a vital route for oil tankers.