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NATO's ambivalence about the US posture on Iran is a problem for the US when it comes to shouldering the burden of reducing the risk of nuclear weapons in the world. There is July 2026 summit of NATO leaders and this remains a problem. Britain has been on again and off again in the war in Iran to keep the Straits of Hormuz open. No minesweepers from Britain, no use of British bases as prime minister Keir Starmer appeals to a skeptical British public and then a reversal to allow use of British bases as British bases are struck by Iran as far away as the Chagos islands.

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An analyst survey by MacroMarkets shows home prices as measured by the S&P Case-Shiller national index will decline by 1.4% in 2010, then increase in 2011 by 1.3% and 2.7% in 2012. At this time weaker jobs data are making analysts cautious about a rebound in the housing market.

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China's exports to all countries surged in November by 21% from a year earlier. Chinese made consumer goods and electronic goods were the main products with increased exports. According to WSJ calculations November exports were up 10% to the U.S. and 46% to Asian nations in ASEAN trade group of countries. Some of the exports to ASEAN including Vietnam and Malaysia find their way to the U.S. New tariffs by U.S. on China lead to some products diverted to Asian destinations and reexported to the U.S. China's imports of goods from the U.S. were up 33% from a year earlier but imports of farm, energy and other products and services were below what was expected under trade deals. Experts say Chinese imports of goods covered in the agreement were 55% of the year to date targets. The Biden administration will leave the tariffs on $370 billion in Chinese goods in place. China is not expected to make up the gap by the end of 2020. Experts also say the exports of Chinese goods has accelerated during the pandemic in 2020 and with the size of the second wave in the U.S. In 2021 U.S. imports from China should slow as the U.S. manufacturing recovers following the vaccination effort.  Also expect increased focus on the trade gap as U.S. trade policy continues to focus on closing the trade gap and continuing policy of the Trump administration. ...

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Economist Lawrence Lindsey says the Fed has boxed itself and has little choice but to keep interest rates low. Borrowing at the more normal interest rates of 5.7%- which is what it was over the last three decades- and not at the current 2.5%, would mean an increase in borrowing costs for the U.S. government of $800 billion in 2021, says Lindsay. Lindsay bases this on the U.S. debt growing from $14 trillion in 2011 to $25 trillion by 2021, and interest rates going back to normal levels by 2021. Just to put this in perspective Lindsay says it would require all the cuts Republicans and Rep. Ryan are asking for just to pay for the added interest, not even about reducing the size of the U.S. debt. This would be a disaster for the U.S. Treasury, so we're stuck with really low rates. The term used by economists is "financial repression." Savers and retirees will have to put up with low returns. Lowering unemployment is only one aspect of U.S. Fed policy, the other aspect is in the constraints Bernake faces....

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The Hindu data team looks at the Indian vaccination drive with graphs by state and progress by dates. During the first 10 days of June the vaccination drive has been stepped up. It is now over 3 million a day and at this rate should reach 400 million vaccinated by the end of July, 100 million below target. For the remainder of the year vaccine supplies have to be pushed up so that 8 million doses can be given each day. This would get India to where everyone in the country of 1.2 billion has been vaccinated by Dec 31, 2021. This would make it possible for India to then use its technology and large manufacturing capacity to help other nations in Asia, Africa and Latin America in 2022. This is the first time in history that India has taken on a challenge of this size and complexity. The vaccine strategy has changed to where the federal government is taking over the overall responsibility of coordinating the production of vaccines in the country and providing access to vaccines from other countries. Federal government is also taking on overall responsibility for distribution of vaccines and setting up the logistical effort. Vaccine supply is being opened up by opening India to multiple vaccines including Pfizer, Moderna, and other vaccines. Production of Covaxin is being stepped up. This strategy is designed to get India to somewhere closer to the 8 million doses a day needed and to ensure distribution and logistical efforts are in place. More resources are put into the effort. The speed of economic recovery also depends on the vaccination drive. Lessons were learned during the second wave in May 2021 and the government is better prepared for the hard work ahead. ...

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Inflation is over 2% in Japan for the 22nd month. Decline in working age population by the 1990's, the shift of jobs and factories overseas, and the banking crisis all led to deflation in the Japanese economy. By 1998 inflation was setting in and has continued for two decades to 2022. This could happen in China as it's economy faces similar problems which is why linear projections from the last 10 years for China are misleading and erroneous, just as linear projections for India from the previous decade's growth were misleading and erroneous after 2014. The second decade after 2024 is likely to lead to major investments in infrastructure leading to India joining the developed nations.

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This story in WSJ says China may have a lead in electric car battery sales in 2024 and beyond. China is investing heavily in battery plants and EV plants in Europe and the US. This would help China meet the restrictions on import of electric vehicles from China by the Biden administration. CATL increased its market share in Europe from 10% to 24%. Sales of EV vehicles in China went up by 37% in the first 9 months of 2023, and China is the top exporter of electric vehicles. CATL's electric battery sales in Europe doubled compared to 60% for LG. And in excluding China sales CATL has caught up with LG both having 28% of the market.

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The monopoly over news publishing in the UK began in 1981 with the purchase of loss making The Times through negotiations with the trade unions.  As shown in The Guardian Rupert Murdoch met with Margaret Thatcher on Jan 3 1981 weeks before the matter was brought up by Thatcher at a cabinet meeting so that it would not be referred to the Monopolies and Mergers Commission. This is revealed in the Thatcher papers held at the Churchill archives in Cambridge 30 years after the event in 2012. This was the year Ronald Reagan's administration replaced Jimmy Carter's administration in 1981. In 2022 Tories Secretary Nadine Torries removed controls that protected the editorial independence of The Times. 

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ECB president Draghi tells the European parliament on Jan. 16, 2012: "I cannot underline these points enough. Only a well-coordinated, coherent and properly timed strategy will yield the desired results." He made his comments as head of the European Systemic Board, which oversees systemic risks to the banking system in Europe. Speaking after a series of downgrades by S&P, Draghi said there should be "much less mechanical reliance" on ratings agencies. On Greece's debt burden and servicing costs he pointed out that the evaluation of Greek debt made in October 2011 "needs to be clarified whether its realistic," given the deteriorating economic situation in Greece. On Greece's talks with bondholder Draghi wants to see new servicing of debt conditions make it possible for Greece to bring down its current debt level of 190% of GDP to 120% by 2020.

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International arrivals to the US that were still down by about 35% in June last year over the pre pandemic levels of 2019, are going to be only about 20% below prepandemic 2019 levels this summer 2023. The cost of gasoline for people in the US is about $3.57 a gallon compared to $4.60 last summer. Justin Lahart in WSJ says Americans with steady checks and low unemployment are willing to spend on trips this summer. Among Americans about 40% still avoided travel by airplane, train or subway in 2022. This is now down to 18% or less in 2023.

Traditional vacations are up as old style remote work vacations are receding. Marriott, Hilton and other hotels, and airlines report strong demand. Older people who spend more are also joining the trend this summer leading to higher spending. This may even help the US avoid a recession, says Lahart.

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The coronavirus pandemic death toll reaches 700,000 making it the deadliest in history. In 2021 the death toll increased with another wave now in the southern and western states such as Florida, Texas in the south, and California, Idaho in the west, with deaths concentrated among the unvaccinated.

The vaccination drive stalled by August 2021 leaving a large number of people between 18-35 unvaccinated mostly in the south and some in western states. States with large Republican support tended to show higher vaccination resistance though the reasons for not getting vaccinated were complex and some misinformation played apart in fear of vaccines. Vaccine supplies were ample in the US.

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In a aspirational country where even US president John Kennedy's grandparent's father Patrick Joseph arrived from Ireland during the potato famine in the 1850's and aspired to reaching the level of the more educated Americans over 2 generations, whose grandson JFK's father worked as a manager in the Quincy shipyards in Massachusetts, this extraordinary concentration of support for Republicans among less educated is astonishing, perplexing, and at odds with what America is. Super Tuesday results analysis of 1000 counties in 14 states in 2024 show Republican Trump getting 83% of the vote in counties with a higher share of voters without a college education. Where voters are a higher share of the college population this drops to 61%. A sharp drop in support is seen in counties with a higher percentage of voters who have college a rapid fall as one has college education.  A strange phenomena can be seen in graphs shown in WSJ of voters by counties and income, education. A large cluster of voters in incomes below 70,000 and without a college education then falling off like off a cliff. In Iowa, New Hampshire primaries it was seen as being mostly rural voters, more isolated and in less proximity to other people. The question remains how well this category of under $70,000 without a college degree reflects the country as a whole in 2024, how has the country changed since 2012, 2016 and 2020. It is easily said there is a polarized country yet this ignores the unusual nature of this support where it is concentrated so heavily in one group in this way with cutoff of $70,000 falling precipitiously in support for Trump for incomes above that. At above $70,000 support quickly drops to 80% and falls steeply with every $1000 increase in income after that. In a country like the US this means almost the entire educated population in the US and the entire population above the $70,000 per year level excluding itself from support, so sharp is the fall off from moderate income and education levels, and so heavily clustered is the support almost like a ball up in that corner of the graph with just a few specks on the rest of the graph. This is most unusual for the US and may not be reflective of the whole population of the US in 2024. This is also unprecedented in US history since 1776, may not compare to 2016, and for the Republican party even more unusual. Two questions also come up what happened to all the country club, more educated voters who voted Republican and made the party what it was an upper class business supported party, and what happened to all the factory workers, teachers, nurses and others in America who make about $70,000 or $80,000 and who are generally Democratic. These people will be part of the electorate for the whole country in 2024. ...

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After the pandemic period of 2020-2022 there is less demand for office buildings downtown leading to investors winding down on investments in these buildings in the US.

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Carney calls Canadian elections on April 28 2025. He was head of the Bank of England and comes from the financial sector. The opposition leader from the Conservatives cannot be ruled out as he enjoyed increase in popularity after Trudeau's popularity declined after being in power since 2015. Carney has never contested an election and the example of Sunak is recent. Sunak called an early election only to lose badly to Labour in 2024 after serious missteps by the Liberals and a split in the party. That split has not been fixed by Carney in any way. 

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Continuity and stability mark the choices for the new cabinet in India of PM Modi. Retaining their Ministries are-Jaishankar at the Foreign Ministry, Nirmala Sitharaman at Finance Ministry , Amit Shah at Home Ministry, Rajnath Singh at Defense, Narendra Modi at Atomic Energy and Space Agency and the Personnel, Public Grievances Pensions Ministry, Also continuing are Nitin Gadkari at Roads, Transport and Highways, Piyush Goyal the Commerce Ministry. Prahlad Joshi formerly in parliamentary Affairs is now at the New and Renewable Energy Ministry plus the Consumer Affairs, Food public distribution ministry. Hardeep Singh Puri retains the Ministry of Petroleum and Natural Gas. Sa Newcomers to Cabinet-Shivraj Singh Chouhan three term Chief Minister of Madhya Pradesh in central India is the new Agriculture and Farmers Welfare Ministry a critical ministry in a still rural country. Ram Mohan Naidu (TDP &NDA Andhra Pradesh) is the new Aviation Minister Jyotirao Scindia was placed with the Telecom Ministry. Kishan Reddy was given the Coal and Mining Ministry. Lalan Singh close associate of Bihar chief minister Nitish Kumar is the new Fisheries, Animal Husbandry, Dairying and of Panchayati Raj village local government. Sarbananda Sonowal is new Minister of Ports, Shipping and Waterways with the job of building modern shipping logistics for exports in the way China has done. Ram Vilas Paswan from Bihar at the Ministry of Food Processing. ...

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Banco Santander took a large charge of 3.18 billion euros in 4th quarter 2012 provisioning for real estate losses and Portugal. Profit for the quarter fell to 47 million euros as a result of this. The provisioning for real estate losses in Spain was 1.81 billion euros, and for Portugal 600 million euros. Profits for 2011 went down by 35% to 5.35 billion euros. Profits from Latin America exceeded profits from the rest of the world for the first time reaching 51%. This is part of the trend with Spanish banks to shore up their capital base in 2011-2012 as the Rajoy administration moves to address the problems of Spain's banking sector.

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Mortgage and other loans taken out at lower interest rates, before the US central bank the Fed started raising rates  in March 2022, is a big part of US household debt. This fact is helping to soften the impact of the Fed's increase of rates by 5% over 16 months. The increase in rates helps savers and retirees earn more on savings kept in CD's. The cut in inflation from 9% in 2022 to 3% in July 2022 helps increase the purchasing power of money. It also helps keep the US economy stronger than other world economies, with the Biden economic plan of increased business investment underpinning strong economic growth of 2.4% in the second quarter of 2023. Wars are not a distraction or cost burden for the economy, with Biden shutting down 2 wars in the Middle East and South Asia. Lessons were learned and Biden has been resolute about this, also giving a singular focus to his plan for rebuilding and renewing America on multiple fronts, infrastructure, fighting climate change, inflation, business investment, and fair taxation so that the fruits of labor are shared equally by all of America's people. Doing this required a clear vision, resolute purpose, and a path to action for each step. Biden has done that in ways that only a few presidents have done in the past. In doing this he has shown that America stands for hope and a better future, a land as he never fails to repeat, a land of possibilities. ...

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U.S. auto sales in May 2012 increased by 26% over the prior year. Toyota sales were up 87% to 203,000 bringing its market share up by 5 percentage points to 15.2%. Honda's sales were up 48% to 134,000, according to Autodata. Overall seasonally adjusted sales were up from the 11.7 million vehicles in 2011 to 13.8 million vehicles in May 2012. Ford's sales were up to 216,000, with a 30% increase in sales of F-series pickup trucks. A cause for concern for Ford would be the 35% of sales in May to rental companies and fleet buyers.

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Kenyan president Ruto says after the tax hikes that led to protests were cancelled- this would increase the borrowing needs. The funding gap in Kenya's finances was 600 billion shillings or $2.7 billion, now he will add another 346 billion shillings to this borrowing.

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Iraq's population is estimated to be 44-46 million, double that of 1997 the last time a census was done in the country. A census is taking place across Iraq to get a better idea of the population. With one Mp for 100,000 people seats in parliament will increase to 450 from 329. Shias share power with Sunnis and Kurds under an arrangement set by the US in 2003.