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This editorial in the WSJ gives another version of the "47%" of the American people dependent on benefits from the government comments by Romney at a fund raiser. This version is about the painful effects of dependency on government benefits when higher employment and a better performing economy is the better answer. It is what Romney should have said and failed to do to make his case convincing to seniors, the unemployed, minorities, women, factory and service workers, and other groups.

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What date should one keep in mnd if both sides fail to reach agreement in U.S. "fiscal cliff" negotiations? Payroll tax and other tax increases go into effect Jan. 1, 2013. Spending cuts could be backloaded to the latter part of 2013. Early January would be when a debt ceiling increase would lead to more negotiations and if no increase in the debt ceiling is made by March 27, the government would go into partial shutdown.

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As Obama faces the situation FDR faced, between political popularity after election in 1932, and loss of some political capital in the first year by 1933, and a lot depends on political will and courage. He has to execute and implement plans for efficient government spending that builds jobs to replace those lost, and to use the investments in really productive ways including projects that provide returns for years into the future. As David Axelrod points out in the Frank Rich column in the NYT, people sometimes live in a parallel universe, which may be completely at odds with what the rest of the country caught in the economic currents of layoffs and collapsing businesses is thinking.

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This WSJ report looks at the situation in American cities where black people suffer disproportionately from the lack of resources to build better lives. Detroit, Milwaukee, St. Paul and St Louis are some of the worst hit cities in the lack of decent housing in the cities. Lenders once used redlining during the Depression era when most of the white population was still in the city so that the areas with black people were burdened with more restrictions and higher rates on loans. This report shows that the situation has changed little after the 1950's after 70 years of alternating Republican and Democratic administrations.   Now that most of the wealth and the white population has left the city of Detroit the population has declined from about 1.8 million to about 700,000. Only 1700 mortgages were made in the city because banks do not make money on tiny mortgages with the declining value of houses in black areas of the city. Black residents are largely shut out of financing, making home ownership harder, says this WSJ report.. Banks made subprime loans in the city and other cities in the U.S. before 2008 with politicians in both political parties supporting this in the name of home ownership. But these loans lacked financial due diligence as loans were made without attention to lender ability to pay off mortgages. After 2008 a financial crisis and higher unemployment hit the U.S. economy from the impact of these bad mortgages packaged and sold as assets. These loans ended up with foreclosure on homes leading to a drop in home ownership from 50% to 40% after a slight increase from 50%. Lacking genuine good intentions with sound financial sense these intentions of improving home ownership fell by the way side, worsening instead of improving things. The pandemic has hit black people and cities particularly hard. With the situation in Detroit continuing to languish from a lack of resources and a system that is failing, says this report in the WSJ.  The loss of manufacturing jobs has hurt black Americans particularly hard and a reversal of the manufacturing decline in the U.S. of the past three decades is needed for the situation to improve. This loss of manufacturing jobs has only increased the gap between the white and black unemployment rates in urban areas of the U.S., as it has also increased the gap in unemployment rates between white professionals with college degrees and whites lacking college education.  This ripping apart of the social fabric is a problem also seen in Europe with decline in manufacturing and other  problems leading to economic decay, coupled with housing and other issues inside cities.      ...

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A study group at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy sends a public letter to U.S. president Obama on the Iran negotiations. It says the nuclear agreement negotiated with Iran "may fall short of the administration's own standard of a 'good' agreement." It is signed by some of Mr. Obama's main advisors during the first term. Some of these officials told the NYT that the letter was the result of serious concern that Mr. Kerry and other negotiators were moving towards major concessions that would weaken the international inspections of Iran's facilities, back away from making Iran reveal suspected past work on weapons, and allow Iranian R&D to move ahead with making nuclear fuel once the accord expires. The five Obama advisors from the first term who signed the letter are: Dennis Ross, Middle East negotiator, David Petraeus, CIA director, Robert Einhorn, State Department proliferation expert, Gary Samore, chief advisor on nuclear policy, Gen. James Cartwright, vice chairman Jt. Chiefs of Staff. Gary Samore is president of the advocacy group United Against Nuclear Iran. The letter was also signed by President Bush's national security advisor during his second term, Stephen Hadley. Such a large group of advisors to presidents Bush and Obama familiar with the details of Iran's development of nuclear technology and weapons capabilities could give Republicans support to kill any agreement that falls short on inspections during Congressional Review. On this key factor where only vague assurances are made by the Iranian side- such as signing an International Atomic Agency convention giving inspectors broad rights to visit suspicious sites, followed by Ayatollah Khamanei ruling out military sites- the letter is specific. Inspections it says " must include military (including Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps), and other sensitive facilities. Iran must not be able to deny or delay timely access to any site anywhere in the country." Inspections work rigorously done is set as a precondition before any significant relief from economic sanctions on Iran....

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A professor at Georgetown University on why it takes time to build democratic institutions, with one important omission- the military in Muslim countries such as Egypt have no intention of building these institutions and have undermined the development of these institutions for decades. A bigger omission lies in inability of the military in the most populous Muslim countries with horrendous gaps in development in basic welfare indices such as education, infrastructure and services, that have put these countries decades behind developing Asia and even Latin America which also had a past of military rule. In countries such as Pakistan and Egypt the military simply lacked the skillset and abilities to deliver in economic terms. Therein lies the biggest failure. In China and Russia the governments have popular support because of their capability to deliver economic growth that has transformed both countries and improved the lives of the people in the region. These crucial omissions explain why Republicans such as Senator John McCain and Lindsey see the need for the U.S. to be on the right side for change. Latin America shook off its history of military rule or one party rule and Brazil, Chile, Mexico are part of two free trade regions in Latin America, supporting the free trade system and economic growth in this hemisphere. The issue ultimately rests with the people of Pakistan, Egypt, and other Muslim countries, and a process of learning, compromise, healing and reconciliation that ocurred in Latin America is likely to follow in the Muslim world. It has already begun in Pakistan which like India has a independent judiciary and lively press, and some of the institutions for a functioning demcoracy. The worst omission is unmentionable because it is so obvious - that of firing live ammunition into protesters for democracy. Years after this happened in S. Korea, Mexico and other countries the day is remembered in a certain way. The important point is that when it comes to this there is no exception to the pattern. ...

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Walmart comes out in favor of requiring employers to provide health insurance to all workers, a central feature of President Obama's effort to provide near universal coverage in the USA. As the country's largest private employer, employing 1.4 million Americans, this change is significant. In a letter to the President, Walmart CEO Mike Duke, joined by Andrew Stern of the Service Employees International Union, and John Podesta of the Center for American Progress, who also signed the letter, say they are for an employer mandate which is fair and broad in its coverage. Walmart had a couple of reasons for doing this. For one Walmart needed to join the negotiations, as the Senate Finance Committee is considering other proposals that are less favorable to Walmart than employer mandate. Already Walmart is covering 52% of its employees, and has improved health benefits in recent years in response to criticism of the company. The industry average is 45%, according to a 2008 Kaiser Foundation study, and some companies do not provide the health benefits that Walmart does, so this helps level the playing field by requiring all large companies to share the burden. Walmart wants to see effective cost controls to keep costs down, and Rahm Emmanuel, the President's chief of staff, assured Walmart that "cost control and employer mandate are heads and tails of the same coin." Under the plans considered by the Senate Finance Committee under Max Baucus, small businesses are exempted from the employer mandate. Republicans have opposed employer mandate. And the U.S. Chamber of Commerce has opposed it saying it would make companies lower wages and cut jobs. Walmart's shift has been gradual. From a company used to providing skimpy benefits, it has evolved as it improved benefits, and two years ago it joined the SEIU union to call for affordable health care for all Americans by 2012. It has Mr Dach as its governmental affairs vice president, and this is significant, as Dach is an advisor to Democratic party politicians....

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Donald Trump fires his campaign manager Corey Lewandoski in June 2016, as GOP advisors prepare for the presidential election. This report in the NYT says family members felt Lewandoski lacked the experience needed for a presidential campaign, was slow to hire new staff, and was at odds with Trump's GOP advisor Paul Manafort. He was also seen as having poor rapport with the press and media covering the Trump campaign. The Trump campaign also lacked fund raising capabilities under Lewandoski, which is now being tackled with fund raising by Trump, and the better image necessary to attract donors.

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Diversity support is dropping among CEO's with the new DJT administration taking office in 2025. Diversity is also losing support nationally. PEW Research shows nationally 52% support it in 2024 compared to 56% in early 2023. Among Republicans the shift is pronounced disapproval of Diversity up to 42% from 20% in the same period. Dhillon's law firm represented a social media activist Starbucks who launched campaigns against corporate Diversity policies during his campaign for Congress from Tennessee. DJT says Dhillon has a history of “suing corporations who use woke policies to discriminate against their workers."

CEO's appear to be saying they were not enthusiastic about such policies in the first place. The shift in sentiment nationally and the US Supreme Court decision against affirmative action in colleges has led to this shift in business CEO thinking.

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The votes in the Iowa Ames Straw Poll shows a shift to more conservative politicians. Ron Paul gets 4,671 votes and comes in second in the Ames Straw Poll. Bachmann who campaigns hard in the state wins 4,823 votes and comes in first, but just 152 votes ahead of Ron Paul of Texas. Turnout is large, with 16,892 votes cast. Pawlenty, a two term governor of Minnesota falls behind and gets 2,293 votes. Rick Perry, three term governor of Texas, gets more write-in votes in Iowa than Mitt Romney.

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Rick Perry gets the endorsement of South Carolina's David Wilkins, former state House speaker. Perry completed an 8 day campaign trip through South Carolina. He made his announcement in Charleston, S.C.

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Seen in a larger context, the Biden tax pledge seen from the southern and midwestern and less well off states is not about taxes, it is about federal revenues that build the infrastructure and services in these states that increase the standard of living. This happened in the 1930's and 1940's under FDR and Truman, in the 1950's under Eisenhower, in the 1960's under Kennedy/LBJ. And is happening again under Biden today. Lets not forget that president John F. Kennedy says in his speeches that these regions in America in the 1860's under Lincoln were in development close to what prevailed in the 1960's in India, Ceylon, Chile, Turkey or China. The Biden pledge not to increase taxes on anyone making less than $400,000 is significant because it grasps the situation in America where extraordinary gains in wealth since 1980 have gone only some of it to the top 1-2% in midwestern states and southern states, and most of it to the top 3-5% in coastal states population in the east and west, New York and California, where the finance and tech industry are based. In Michigan and Wisconsin only 2% of households make more than $400,000, in Pennsylvania, Nevada, Arizona and Florida 3%. WSJ shows a map of the US showing this for individual states. The core southern states have 2% of households with incomes over $400,000- including Arkansas, Tennessee, South Carolina, Alabama, Louisiana, Oklahoma, with Mississippi less than 1%. It is only segregation in the late 1960's and culture issues such as abortion that have turned them from Democratic states to Republican states as they were the largest beneficiaries of taxes diverted into investment in these places since FDR/Truman and John Kennedy/LBJ. It was JFK who came up with the phrase "a rising tide lifts all boats" when he opened federally funded projects in Arkansas. Seen objectively the large investments made under Lincoln, FDR/Truman, Kennedy/LBJ from tax revenues are what changed this region from conditions that prevailed in less developed countries that John Kennedy points out in his speeches, true for the midwest, parts of the west, and the southern states alike.  President Kennedy said on Feb. 25, 1963 to the American Bankers Association Symposium on Economic Growth: "Today, many Americans tend to think of developing underdeveloped countries in terms only of faraway nations. But in 1863, even measured by 1963 dollars, our own per capita income--and this should be a source of encouragement to many who are laboring with the problem of underdevelopment in far-off countries--our own per capita income was less than $1 a day, approximately the same as Chile's. Nearly 60 percent of our labor force was engaged in agriculture, the same percentage as is today engaged in the Philippines. An estimated 20 percent of our population was illiterate, the same percentage of the population of Ceylon. Only one-fifth of our 34 million people lived in towns or cities of over 5,000 in population, as is roughly true now of Turkey. In 1863, this Nation had fewer railroad tracks laid than India has today, and its children had a shorter life expectancy than a child born this year in Thailand or Zanzibar."   ...

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As the trade problems with the U.S. escalate in tit for tat tariffs, China looks back at its history for parallels. The period of the "unequal treaties" imposed by the Western powers on China in the period 1850-1900, the Korean War of the 1950's, and other analogies that come up to people. Yet China's planners and leaders are looking at another situation the Plaza Accord of 1985 in which the western nations pressured Japan into accepting a significantly higher exchange rate to reduce its trade surplus and the Japanese yen appreciated by 50%. Japan cut interest rates from 5% to 2.5%, and introduced huge fiscal stimulus, banks opened up to lend vigorously. The result was a boom by 1990's followed by a bust that led to another decade of lending to loss making firms called "zombie" businesses, that led to a stagnant economy. This has persisted for three decades. This China sees as an unacceptable situation when China has still not achieved developed economy status in terms of per capita incomes. It fears getting into a middle income trap as the economic growth slows and the aging population makes a recovery more difficult.  The difference with Japan in the 1985-1990 period is that Mr. Trump lacks the kind of five nation economic coordination that put pressure on Japan. Today there are differing views on China in Europe and the U.S. and different policies. Mr. Trump is known for his style of deal making and could settle early, as feared by some Republican leaders in Congress who see in China a challenge to America's technological dominance. There are no calls to appreciate China's currency. Only calls for China to change its state subsidies model and put in writing and through laws that change the way of doing business that does not require American companies to hand over advanced technology. This is also a concern for Japan and the European Union countries such as Germany, and is something all nations try to protect in global competition. Japan is still facing the consequences in creating a new competitor in high speed train technology after building the first high speed trains in China and transfer of the high speed train technology by Kawasaki. The Household Survey by the Federal Reserve showing the financial fragility of 40% of American families shown on this page today shows how this situation is likely to evolve as working class families in the U.S. support a trade stance that protects American jobs and technology. Job losses over three decades and a $891 billion trade deficit in 2018 are seen as unacceptable to the U.S. in 2019. A stronger U.S. dollar helped increase the U.S. trade deficit by 10% in 2018, nullifying some benefits of Mr. Trump's trade actions. Mr. Robert Lighthizer was a negotiator in the trade dispute with Japan in 1985, and runs the negotiations with China with support from president Trump. This alone has kept the Japanese situation in 1985 uppermost in the minds of China's leaders as they try to come up with a way to settle the trade dispute with Mr. Trump.     ...

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Robert Kaiser, former managing editor of The Washington Post, reviewed this book on Joe McCathy in The Washington Post on August 7, 2020. It shows the link with today of Senator Joe McCarthy and Roy Cohn, the then 27 year old lawyer chief counsel of the senate subcommittee on investigation when Joe McCarthy became chairman in Jan. 1953. The book is-  Demagogue The Life and Long Shadow of Senator Joe McCarthy by Larry Tye. Roy Cohn passed on some of the methods used at that time to Mr. Trump. Kaiser points out that the senator Joe McCarthy assembled "a coalition of the aggrieved." Tye shows that it started with the junior senator from Wisconsin making a speech in West Virginia for Lincon Day dinner to the Republican ladies of Wheeling, W. Va. The senator used it to talk about threat of communists working in the State Department. He claimed there were 205 Communists. Today we know that this was just made up by McCarthy, at a time when Winston Churchill made the speech about the Iron Curtain in Eastern Europe and the Soviet Union and a sense of shock in America at the People's Republic of China being formed in 1949 under CCP chairman Mao tse tung. McCarthy saw this as an opportunity to gain prominence and a Senate career. What is seen from this carefully researched book is that for a while it succeeded in putting many of the Nation's best leaders on the defense. This includes Harry Truman, Eisenhower himself who disdained McCarthy's and Cohn's methods, Gen George Marshall who was a mentor to Dwight EIsenhower, Joe Stilwell, and other military leaders who ran the 1940's war effort under Marshall in Europe against the Nazis and in China against the Japanese imperialists. On the domestic side it included the head of TVA and the new Atomic Agency setup by president Truman. Gallup said at that time of McCarthy's 38% support in the US following his censure in US Senate by 67-22  -even if it was known that McCarthy killed five innocent children they would still go along with him. Tye writes that in that atmosphere similar to the sense of shock at China's rise and America's loss of manufacturing and falling behind in infrastructure by 2016, in that atmosphere if one told a small lie or big lie it made not much difference in public's penalty or censure, then why not tell a whopper of a lie. This became the ethic for a while in 2016-2024 similar to the period till the collapse of McCarthyism in America by 1957 with McCarthy's death in 1957 and in 1960 the election of John F. Kennedy. What is forgotten is that Richard Nixon a young senator from California was part of the group in Congress, so that in some shape or form it existed and remained part of the Reagan efforts to push back against the Soviets that led to wars in Afghanistan and then Iraq sapping the Nation's energies and resources and with faulty economic theory allowed China to dominate key industries and outspend America in infrastructure investment, creating the kind of shock that led to the second McCarthyist decade under Mr. Trump. ...