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Alexander Van Der Bellen, a pro Europe independent candidate supported by the Green Party wins Austria's presidential election with 53.3% of the vote. The anti immigrant Freedom Party candidate Norbert Hofer wins 46% of the vote. Van Der Bellen is for an open Europe and is pro Europe. The election is seen in Germany as "lifting a great burden off of our shoulders," in the words of Sigmar Gabriel. This is important for the future of Europe as France, Netherlands and Germany face major elections in 2017.

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With its slogan "Expect More, Pay less" Target has tried to combine low prices with moving upmarket, carrying designer merchandise and chic styling without breaking the family budget. Now with the recession and consumers becoming frugal in the USA, Target and its new CEO who took on the role in May 2008, Steinhafel, is looking at Wal-Mart to see how it can also emphasize the low prices in this recessionary climate. With store sales fallig by 10% in early 2009 Target executives were concerned that something needed to be done. And the thing was to bring even lower prices withor making customers feel cheap. Its chief marketing officer natty Francis always believed in the marketing philosophy of the 1952 book about Marshall Field "Give the Lady What She Wants." Question was what the lady wanted in today's environment. Instead of the old aspirational image of the designers behind Target apparel, Francis now put up the idea of how good value can be chic too. Target designers emphasized how the lady can look "frugalista fabulous." The other challenge was introducig groceries in the store. And instead of packaged foods he idea was to introduce fresh foods which have higher margins. Protype grocery stores were put up and the concept launched. And now instead of gradual rollout, Target went hyper local putting fresh food in all 30 Philadelphia stores. And the marketing ads, radio, newspaper circulars, TV everything made Philly residents aware of the move. Sales went up by 5to 10%. Now the concept has proven to work and Target plans to put in in 350 stores in 2010. And Nat Francis thinks Target did not move fast enough considering how quickly consumers have turned frugal. In the new frugal environment Target research showed its working-mom was obsessing about the price of milk not the thigh-high boots, and she was visiting the grocery store twice aweek and Target only 3 times amonth. Showing groceries mattered. Meantime Target's markeing is ore focussed and its creating the perception that Target and Wal-mart are so close on price. Target is actually devoting 75% of its advertising budget to price compared to 25% in 2008. So a 32 inch panel TV is $246, a coffeemaker is $3. Yet Target executives don't want to undo a strategy built up over years of a better customer experience, designer merchandise at lwer prices, something that would differentiate it from Wal-Mart. So the moves may simply be an adjustment to comport with the thriftier savings oriented times....

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With so much coverage of other aspects of China,  to really understand China and Xi Jinping one has to understand the rural urban situation in China. Xi's long experience as a teenager in the cultural revolution of Mao was in rural areas, the 8 years he spent there till the age of 22, as this report by James Areddy with help of Yijun, Cheng and Qi aptly shows. It traces the shift and mass migration to cities starting with Deng's modernization drive in 1979. This shift of labor to city and town factories as the U.S. and Europe shifted factories and production to China is the story of our times. How it has both helped and hurt China and how it has become the dominant issue of our times, and a lesson for India in the middle of its own modernization and shift of labor to cities. It has helped China modernize with the shift during 1979 to 2016 and run into a road block with president Trump leading a movement in the U.S. of people most hurt by the outsourcing of factories and production to China. It was not meant to be this way. Yet the shift also led to ripping up the fabric of communities and towns with loss of factories across America over three decades. Because China is a large country the impact was huge decade after decade, leading to a backlash against lost jobs in the U.S. and in Europe.  Xi Jinping has romantic view of rural China as he spent 7 years in Shanxi province rural areas during the cultural revolution under Mao. During this period he toiled as part of farm labor alongside villagers which allowed him to get to know villagers and farmers in the countryside well, and formed his view of the world around him. As it is described in a description of the man in Chinese sources- "He arrived at the village as a slightly lost teenager and left as a 22 year old man determined to do something for the people."  China's system separated migrants from city dwellers not  giving same rights to better education, to schools and housing, and official documents separating the two, city dwellers and migrant populations from rural areas. As a result as China modernized and population shifted -shown here in excellent graphic charts over four decades- in 1979 from about 80% in rural areas and 20% in urban the shift goes to 50-50 by 2001. Today it is 40-60 with 60% in rural areas but a population of 40% suffering from severe inequalities and  low incomes. So that GDP per capita of $10,000 for China is deceiving. The real incomes in average disposable income is about $4300 in urban and $1700 in rural area, according to National Bureau of Statistics. High school education is hard enough to get in rural areas, medical care is very basic and the $1700 would hardly get a room in low income housing in a large town in China, says premier Li Keqiang. Keqiang did his masters thesis on urbanization and has studied this shift from his college days. Just as in Gandhi's India, Mao's China is the story of the villages, with 128,000 villages for 600 million people in Mr. Xi Jinping's anti-poverty drive. Hong Kong other issues have to be understood in the context of these concerns of China's leadership today- the sense that strong central leadership alone can keep the country together and bring a decent life to the people in the villages and in the countryside outside the cities.  Modernization of cities still set in the context of China's vast rural population and essential to its full uplift and progress. Xi has allocated $80 billion each year to bring roads, schools, medical facilities, and other amenities including electricity and modern heating. The idea now is to shift people back to the villages, find opportunities for jobs and livelihoods in farming, tourism with guesthouse facilities, and other occupations in the villages. The villages are being turned into attractive places to live one by one in this party drive and providing new enthusiasm and support for the party's efforts. India can learn from this experience in China. The western nations of the U.S. and Europe can no longer and will no longer undertake the wholesale shift of factories with loss of jobs to China or India to offer the prospect of bringing these countries to the kind of urbanization and overall prosperity of small nations like Japan and South Korea, which are a tiny fraction of the population of China and India+ Pakistan + Bangladesh. As a result China is changing strategy now with a return to some aspects of the informal economy in Chengdu with street peddlers and tiny retail, and return of migrants back to better built and improved villages in the countryside. A better life than in cities is possible this view says for people from these rural areas, if the rural areas are given modern facilities and construction and resources are allocated, job creation locally tackled. The villages can offer better air quality, better quality of life where villagers who earlier migrated to cities with ownership of land, when they are modernized with better roads and have better facilities for education, housing and healthcare, better amenities. The new approach is to strike a good balance for urbanization, by modernizing and investing in villages and small towns, so that cities can cope and overall life can be better than with mass migration and wholesale urbanization. It is also a balance that works well for the U.S. and Europe which can redirect manufacturing to their home regions as part of a better distributed and balanced supply chain than the one that was unwittingly built over the last three decades.    ...

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Automakers will have to ensure that 40 to 45% of a car's content is made by workers in the U.S. earning at least $16 per hour. If this is not met automakers pay a 2.5% tariff for cars brought in from Mexico. Mexico makes 2.3 million cars and Canada 1.8 million. Automakers invested tens of billions of dollars in Mexico turning it into a lower cost export hub. This has led to job loss in the U.S. Mr. Trump's efforts in the new trade deal with Mexico are designed to increase investment in the U.S. auto industry.

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Pandit describes the Citigroup rescue in 2008 at a Wharton School convocation.

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A study of the effectiveness of Vytorin shows how sensitive the public perception is to any attempt to change the endpoint of a study of a drug or change any aspects of the original plan for a drug study. In the case of Vytorin study of Merck and Schering Plough researcher Kastelein says he regretted going along with an attempt by the drug companies to change the original plan. The companies decide eventually to stay with the original plan.

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A trial by Merck and Schering Plough that lasted 2 years with 720 patients in the Netherlands found that while Vytorin helped reduce cholesterol more than Zeta taken alone, the plaques of patients on Vytorin grew twice as fast as the one on Zeta alone. Vytorin is a combination of Zetia and Zocor in a single pill. About 60% of patients take Zetia in the Vytorin form. Zetia by itself reduces cholesterol by 15-20% but its not clear if it reduces the plaque formation in arteries at all. The trial was completed in April 2006 but released now only after articles were written about it in the media. Zetia and Vytorin account for 20% of the overall cholesterol lowering drug market. Its about 70% of Schering's earnings and about 100 million prescriptionhave been filled in US so far. The drugs cost $3 a day. For Merck its reputation after the Vioxx issues would be affected by these results leaving some doubts in the public mind.

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Steep drops in economic activity and loss of so many jobs is the reason why total lockdowns are not the best solution as seen from the experience gained by August. Selective lockdowns are now being applied across France, Germany and Britain in specific areas. About 400 million jobs have been lost, 13 million in the U.S.  Hospitals overwhelmed in northern Italy by March is what made the total lockdowns necessary.  These steps for total lockdown were made with very little known about the pandemic and the need to protect hospital and health systems. These decisions at that time are not questioned today. It is that now  with some treatments found, a vaccine close to being introduced, hospital system protocols established, health ministries and departments organized to respond quickly, and the public awareness at high levels,  it is now possible to impose these selective lockdowns effectively and quickly. As the WSJ now says the CDC had botched the initial development and distribution of tests in February- see WSJ analysis and our Lyrarc links of how 3 crucial weeks were lost in Feb with failure of the CDC and HHS in testing- making test and contact trace strategy window to be missed. China had not cooperated in letting a U.S. team quickly in the early days of February creating more uncertainty and risk. In that situation total lockdown suddenly became the reality to avoid a catastrophe. Today a carefully applied selective application of solutions can be done and is seen as the right way to protect jobs and livelihoods of people. ...

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A brief history of Xinjiang which translates as New Frontier in Chinese. Its the western frontier of China and a vast area that comprises the desert region of the Tarim basin. It has 13 sizeable ethnic minority groups and borders eight countries. Because of the lack of irrigation technologies these arid expanses were settled very late in history, says Victor Mair, a Professor of Chinese language and literature at the University of Pennsylvania. Even the Uighurs were tribes from the Mongolian steppes who settled Xinjiang in the 10th century. For China it was mostly aplace for havin border military garrisons. Around the 10th century and the Tang dynasty in China, trade on the Silk Road- with places like Kashgar oasis towns on the fringes of the desert as hubs- was at its height. It was not until 1760 under the Quing dynasty of ethnic Manchus, that this area was annexed by CHina and serious effort made to settle it with demobilized troops. A civil and military administration encouraged immigration, say scholars Millward and Perdue in a 2004 book of essays by 16 scholars, "Xinjiang: China's Muslim Borderland." About 50,000 demobilized troops were offered benefits, seeds and land if they stayed. A similiar situation seems to have been repeated after Mao annexed Xinjiang in 1949. In the early 1950's the Chinese government established the Xinjiang Province Production and COnstruction Corps, which was setup to manage large farms and construction projects called bingtuan and provide jobs for demobilized troops. The bingtuan are profitable enterprises and an estimated one of every six people in Xinjiang are employed in bingtuan, or 1.3 million people. THe HAn who were 6% of the population in 1949, now comprise 40% of the 20 million population of Xinjiang. Another source of employment is in the oil and gas industry, with the Communist party secretary of Xinjiang for the last 15 years being aprotege of President Hu Jintao, from his days in the Communist Youth League, coming from the oil industry province of of Shandong. These jobs are mostly all reserved for Chinese which causes resentment among the local Uighurs. Wong quotes a Uighur university student as saying, who is the foreigner here and whose culture, language and way of life should be protected. This may be the crux of the grievances of the Uighurs, as their use of the language and religious practice is restricted, and they feel they are second class citizens in their own land. Other articles in the NYT and Economist go to point out that the links with international terrrism are not a source of the problem, and the unrest among the Uighurs is more about a feeling of loss of culture, language, religion and identity, and jobs. And the idea that the best way to work with minorities, or regions with different language, religion and culture, just as the British did in South Asia and India is doing now is through tolerance. See the links to NYT and Michael Wines on 7/11/2009 about the Communist party secretary for Xinjiang, Wang Lequang, whose policies in Xinjiang and now in Tibet through a protege, may be worsening this situation. ...

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Ireland went off the cliff by taking enormous unregulated loans. The banks lent money freely and the regulators simply ignored the bubble that was developing through the last decade. The speculators, developers, bankers and regulators all let the bubble reach astounding proportions. One developer got a $6.3 million loan on a personal guarantee without meeting his banker. One 1000 square foot Dublin carraige house went for 3 million euros in an auction. One of the developers, Simon Kelly, says that everything was funded by the Germans through the European Central Bank. The sale of the Jury's hotel in 2005 resulted in the amazing price of 60 to 70 million euros per acre. Ireland's GDP which was $25 billion in the 1980's, reached $267 billion in 2008. The boom that was initially based on export competitiveness and the low corporate tax rate combined with an educated English speaking workforce, was followed by a speculative boom in real estate financed by Irish banks, where regulators simply looked aside and placed no controls on lending. To get an idea how the government looked at anyone who raised a red flag, look at this quote from Bertie Ahern, prime minister of Ireland from 1997 to 2008, who said at a trade union conference: "sitting on the sidelines cribbing and moaning is a lost opportunity. I don't know how people who engage in that don't commit sucide." And this coming from an Irish politician who helped in arranging the Irish peace accords with the help of Bill Clinton and Tony Blair. The risks of such uncontrolled speculation in real estate was lost on regulators, the government, and politicians. And the bankers stopped paying attention to their loans, with everyone wanting to lend money to 10-15 deveopers who were able to drive the market. The regulator at the central bank simply didn't pay much attention to the reports he received every quarter about the lending. Now the average household in Ireland owes 132,000 to the banks, according to David McWilliams of the Central Bank of Ireland, and unemployment is at 14%. If the Irish had completely lost track of the picture, what about the German and British banks that loaned money to Ireland? Why was money being made so freely available to Ireland. One Irishman says getting a mortgage in those days was like getting cupcakes. With prices haveing reached the stratosphere at 60 million euros an acre, were the European banks also pushing money into Ireland beyond the ability of a small country like Ireland to repay? According to the Bank for International Settlements based in Basel, Switzerland, Ireland owes $139 billion to German banks and $132 billion to British banks. Easy money was also available from US banks for countries such as Argentina which suffered similar crisis in prior decades. Banking crises ocurred in Asian countries in the 1980's. Much of this experience was lost in the manner German, British and other European banks loaned money to countries such as Iceland, Greece, Ireland and Portugal. The Asian banking crises of the 1980's are being followed by European banking crises over two decades later. The ...

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President George Bush said in 2005, that if someone wanted to get a glimpse of how he thinks on foreign policy, he should read Nathan Sharansky's book "The Case for Democracy." Sharansky was an aide to soviet physicist and human rights advocate Andrei Sakharov. Here he is interviewed by David Feith of the Wall Street Journal. His outspoken activism in favor of the right of Soviet Jews to emigrate got him 9 years in the Soviet Gulag. He was released from prison in 1986, with the strong support of President Reagan. He emigrated to Israel and served in ministerial posts and in the Israeli parliament. Sharansky says the recent protests in Egypt prove his fundamental points. That there are limits to how much you can control people through the use of fear, and that all people, regardless of religion and culture, desire and want freedom. This is a very human message, it showed its power when the Berlin Wall fell, and it is true today in the Arab world. He says the fear that this endangers the 1979 Israeli-Egyptian peace treaty is not well founded. Over the last 30 years the border with Syria has been quiet, because it is really Israeli deterrance that is responsible for this and the quiet border with Egypt. He adds there is no justification for Mubarak remaining, as it only creates hostility in the Arab world against the US and Israel. And he says that Mubarak was no friend of the Jewish people, because even as he made peace with Israel, he continued to let anti-Semitism thrive and used Jews as the enemy to enhance his control. Sharansky says Gaza and Hamas control after the election was an unusual situation because of the corruption of the people around Arafat, so that even Christian villages supported Hamas. And he says the longer a dictatorship is in place the worse the situation becomes in creating more hostility to all those who support the dictatorship, including the US and Israel. For Sharansky, the Obama adminstration's response to the Iranian protests after what is seen as a stolen election in Iran, were one of the greatest betrayals of freedom in modern history. To prevent a one time, one person, one vote, Sharansky says the democratic institutions have to take root and this will take more than 8 months, so guarantees need to be put in place that this is not allowed to happen. Safeguards put in place to ensure that whoever is elected cannot survive if democratic institutions and reforms and democracy building does not occur. Dissidents like Mr Ibrahim and others should enjoy the ability to build trade unions and women's organizations. Sharansky says this is a real chance, a chance for the US and the free world to become a partner in change. In change that will help Egypt pass the town square test. Can people freely protest and express their grievances in the town square. And move from this fundamental change to establishing democratic processes and institutions. ...

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The story of a Russian startup company MeshNetics, that had a research project called Golden Box with a team of software programmers. It succumbed to the global financial crisis as it hit Russia and with it dreams of a new wireless technology that would help utilities keep track of energy conservation and other uses. No new investors could be found and the Russian investors cut the funding. Even western investors could not make the investments. Programmers like Bagrak, 27, from Berkeley, California, who worked at Google on an internship and came back to Russia to build its high tech sector. Luzhetsky, 26, from Obninsk, a city built by the Soviets for nuclear and military scientists, which fell into decay and poverty in the post soviet period, this was his first programming job after being educated in the Soviet Union. Mr Grinkug, 57, from a generation of the Soviet period that considered science a religion, he headed the 12 programmer team working on the Golden Box project. The project three ers in the making was expected to release in early 2010. Suvorov who headed MesNetics, who saw his work as part of the move by President Medvedev who came into power in the spring of 2008 to take Russia away from dependence on oil, with investment of $5 billion in a state corporation for nanotechnology. Anatoly Karachinsky, President of the Russian internet technology company IBS Group, who spun off MeshNetics using the brightest talent from his software development team and financed it with his venture fund Oradell Capital. First the optimism in the face of difficulty in the fall of 2008, as the global crisis began to hit Russia, then in October the message to Suvorov that he had to look for a new investor. Then the cuts, first 10% of jobs gone, nine days late a dozen more fired, then the shutdown phase. One person fired after coffee with Suvurov, as things moved quickly. Alexei Rybakov, director of the division that makes the ZigBit, calls 50 investors aday, makiung every kind of pitch, practical, global, patriotic. Grinkug packs up his things, 40 years of codes fit into a few CD's , a few programmers are retained if things change, but for Grinkug the Golden Project he says, will probably die in his head. Its mind boggling how mistakes and unethical behaviour in the banking systems in the west can wash ashore in emerging countries like Russia, and wash away what little stability to build anew life has been achieved in a few years after the 1998 collapse of the ruble and the Russian economy. Its also a contrast between the dreams, hopes and aspirations and the innocence of ordinary young Russian tech engineers and the swings of reality that surround them, of poverty and collapse in early post soviet Russia, then optimism , and now a new kind of reality trying to salvage what has been achieved, and the difficulties in forging a new future that goes beyond 120 million people collecting around a oil wellhead....

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New rules in 2016 for U.S. bonus pay require banks and other financial institutions to defer at least half of executive bonus pay for 4 years, one year longer than industry practice. The rule also sets a period of 7 years for the largest firms to be able to "claw back" bonuses if the executive's actions have led to the financial institution having to restate financial results or hurt the institution. The Obama administration is making up for lack of earlier stronger action in this area during the last year it is in office. Excessive risks were taken during the financial crisis of 2008 because of executive compensation structures that incentivized this. The definition of "risk taker" is also widened to include high earners at banks who are not in senior management- to include the 5% of employees at banks that are highest paid and get a third of compensation from incentives.

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Prospects for reducing opium cultivation in Afghanistan do not look good even with the poor opium harvest in 2012. Experts say farmers have few alternatives and will go back to planting an even larger crop in future years.

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Increasing demand and profitabilty of the newer fuel efficient twin engine planes seating 250-300 passengers for Airbus and Boeing- the Airbus 321, the Airbus 350, the 777X, 787-9, 787-10.

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The defeat of the anti-nuclear candidate Hosokawa supported by former prime ministers Koizumi and Kan in the Tokyo governor's election of 2014. There was low voter turnout due to bad weather and voters showed interest in local issues about elder care and the plans for the Olympics.