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The World bank president Robert Zoellick in an interview with Sudeep Reddy of the Wall Street Journal. He says its frustrating to see Europe respond to problems in banking, sovereign debt and competitiveness that have a chance to work, but only to find that the action is a bit late and a bit short every time. He says the Germans are right in insisting that credit cannot be given away freely, and that reforms have to be made. Yet these reforms in the case of Spain and Italy to increase competitiveness will take time and in the meantime both countries will need bridge financing. A direct recapitalization of European banks by the European Financial Stability Facility is needed to avoid this slow and continuous decline in confidence from negative news and uncertainty. Because the problem now is of a longer term nature with debt issues that will take time to resolve and energy price volatility, Zoellick says simply doing short term stimulus and monetary will not work, and a longer term plan needs to be implemented. Zoellick supported the China Development Report of the World Bank and China's DRC which called for a shift in the economy away from reliance on state owned companies and heavy infrastructure spending. Here he says the new stimulus plan for China was necessary because of slowing growth. Yet he hopes China's leaders keep this in mind as they develop solutions for the long term that avoid the rampant credit expansion and investment of the 2008 Stimulus, and come up with a new policy mix....

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The opposition in China and South Korea to Japan's release of slightly radioactive water into the sea stems from a distrust of Japanese data that supported by the International Atomic Energy Agency says the discharge does not affect public health. By next March 2% of the accumulated water will be released. In all 1.2 million tons are planned to be released over 30 years starting August 24, 2023. That water contains small quantities of radioactive tritium which Japan says is less than what Chinese nuclear plants release into the sea. TEPCO which manages the Fukushima plant decommissioning says it will post the data on release and level of radioactive material on its website with comparison to the levels seen as not affecting health that WHO has set.

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Prof. Jeffrey Wasserstrom of UC Irvine reviews Henry Paulson's "Dealing With China." Paulson was head of Goldman Sachs investment bank and Secretary of the Treasury 2006-2009, the period of the global financial crisis. He made 70 visits to China since his days at Goldman Sachs and calls Chinese leaders Jiang Zemin and Jinping "old friends." He established the Strategic Economic Dialogue in the Bush administration for dialogue on economic issues with China, and setup the Paulson Institute at the University of Chicago to focus on China-U.S. relations. One of Paulson's points is that China's financial system faces a day of reckoning, with large losses and many restructurings. Wasserstrom's review looks at Paulson's view of dealing with China and points to a sense that it needs updating because by the time the book is published a lot has changed with the new Jinping administration. The new administration in China is more assertive in foreign affairs, and less tolerant of both the corruption that became part of the Chinese capitalist development inside a state run one party system, and of the voices for more openness. It also has placed tight controls on the Internet. Jinping sees a constructive role for the Communist party in the future as China makes economic reforms away from state run enterprises, and is working to strengthen the party through discipline and anti-corruption initiative. The reckoning Paulson mentions, Krugman and other experts have described in other language- not as a reckoning but that China was no exception and would face the same problems that the U.S. and the eurozone faced since 2008 from financial excesses. In this sense Paulson's views and interactions with the Chinese leadership may represent another era, a period of exuberance when some of these financial excesses were being built up. Today's economic team of Jinping and Li Keqiang is more focussed on making sure the transition through a economic crisis is managed carefully, keeping in mind the risks for China considering its history, and the situation where China is still a "middle income country" with aspirations for further development to improve incomes and living standards. Their view is that tight control is needed as China makes this transition to a less state enterprise dependent, and more consumer economy, so that there is no loss of the gains made so far. A different set of skills and deft management of the economy is needed, making Paulson's views from another era less relevant. External influences such as managing the complex China-Japan relationship as both countries become more assertive are creating another dynamic in Asia, which Chinese leaders may see as requiring careful management, making Paulson's experience less relevant for a new period with new challenges. For the U.S. the economic cooperation with China now occurs with an added political dimension. Of concern for the tight control, seen as not forward looking and not bringing more constructive voices into the system, and the new complexities of carefully managing the changing U.S.-China-Japan relationship in Asia. ...

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WSJ committed to orthodox economic theory thinks of tariffs as tariffs such as Smoot Hawley from the 30's. This is why it is not true- It is about fentanyl flows that have led to 490,000 deaths over 12 years in the US and few in the US like to talk about it. Smoot Hawley had nothing to do with fentanyl, drugs trafficking and migrant trafficking that every nation not only has a right but a No.1 responsibility to its citizens to keep its neighborhoods and its children in neighborhoods safe. Smoot and Hawley were US Senators and US Congress was isolationist in mood. Their grasp of the world trading system was meager and they stepped in at a time when the world had economically not recovered from World War I, and the French against US General Pershing's advice had set the most punitive arrangement in Germany that crushed Germany after an armistice Pershing opposed that left the Kaiser's political structures intact. Tariffs is not DJT's idea. It is the solid experience of Deputy US Trade Representative, Robert Lighthizer under Reagan who conducted negotiations with the Japanese who stalled and stalled Lighthizer says, let negotiations drag on into endless nights, and Lighthizer and his team stood firm. The relentless Japanese relented and Lighthizer secured the agreements that ended this phase of trade relations in the 1980's. Lighthizer was Trade Representative in the DJT first term 2016-2020 and launched the negotiations with China. This is now 8 years since 2016 and 2016 itself was 35 years after Lighthizer negotiated with the Japanese. Today's US Trade Representative is Jamieson who was Deputy Trade Representative under Lighthizer in 2016. Each detail is carefully thought through to bring it to a fair conclusion in the interests of the world and the US. Information traveled slowly GM could not tell at any time how many cars were in inventory on its lots in 1920's. US lacked basic infrastructure for government that FDR and Labor Secretary added firt in New York in the 1930's and which was transferred to 50 states by 1940's. Today information is quickly at fingertips and consultation processes are built in between industry and government at all levels. A lot of information is carefully evaluated. USTR as DJT showed, the major study of USTR Office in the Rose Garden on April 2, 2025, has all trade barriers carefully analyzed in minute details for every country. And is working on this for 40 years. There isn't even a slightest  comparison between this and the Smoot Hawley crowd in the 1920's.  The goal not to beat anybody. Just to set the goal of a level playing field for world trade. That is the foundation of trade that is fair and respected, and is a win-win for all. WTO's basic foundation No. 1 principle is a level playing field. It is just that this was a kind of Marshall Plan for Asia of the US to let poor countries such as Japan war wrecked in 1950, and China colonial power wrecked by first Britain then Japan struggling and poor in 1990's, giving them some time to rebuild by ignoring unfair barriers to trade for 10-15 years 2005 for China. Barriers that never got dismantled and technology that leaked from the US 2005-2016 under the Obama administration. Smoot Hawley was not about the US Navy building its own ships and US shipyards in the 1920's. In 2025 US shipbuilding industry is stolen, this is why the words used "pillaged" "looted" were used in the Rose Garden. Little by little American private enterprise capitalism was superseded by a new form of capitalism in Japan then in China that combined state capitalism with private enterprise capitalism. This then was the threat America faced, and needed to redouble its energies and seek fair play.   ...

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Experts at Moody's say that a partial deal with China like the phase 1 deal Mr. Trump announced this week will leave unresolved the fundamental differences in the two countries' economic, political and strategic interests. Mr. Trump suspended a new tariff on Chinese imports set to go into effect in December on mobile phones, laptops and the remaining import products not yet covered by tariffs. Any improvements in relations is seen only as temporary. In the agriculture sector most farmers are taking a cautious attitude. Importers of products such as luggage and other basic consumer products are living with the uncertainty- product quality may deteriorate now that importers cannot pass on a 25% tariff cost.

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The other title of this article in the NYT was "California's fading Political Machines and volatile race for Governor." Gone are the days when Pat Brown was able to put his son Jerry Brown in the race for governor, there are 9 persons running for governor of California in 2026. The current governor Gavin Newsom is said to be promoting his book in Nashville, Tennessee, where many Californians are moving with the inflated cost of housing in the state. Gavin Newsom's grand father gave a $5000 check to Pat Brown in 1943 to run for District Attorney, this report says citing the book. From that time Pat Brown became Attorney General and then governor of California in 1958, defeating Richard Nixon in 1962. In 1962 Pat Brown seemed vulnerable as his signature accomplishment setting up the UC system of college campuses and the water reservoir, tax increases to pay for this, were in their beginning stages and their lasting value not recognized at the time. Nixon from Whittier, California, was a former Vice President and was seen as likely winner. This toughly fought election created the Pat Brown myth and so called machine that helped his son Jerry Brown to two terms as governor 1975 to 1983, and again after serving as Mayor of Oakland and Attorney General to come back to governors race again in 2011 (because term limits came after 2011) and be governor again 2011-2018. Another way of looking at it is that in his last two terms it was also Jerry Brown's careful balancing of the budget and finances of the state, his environmental support, that made him a reliable figure for the public interest not just the political machine backing him.  California to be sure has had popular governors on both sides Reagan won in 1966 as governor of California to succeed Pat Brown. The Kennedys and Pat Brown are matched by the Reagan supporters in the state. In today's situation where China's dominance in industry and manufacturing has affected all parts of deindustrialized America, California is no exception, where much of the middle class has seen their savings eroded, the issues are different and the challenges are different. ...

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Trade Agreement talks will begin in December between India and Sri Lanka as Sri Lanka looks for ways to bring back growth following a 9.2% contraction in the economy in 2022 and estimated 4.2% in 2023. Mr. Weerasinghe at the International Trade Office setup under the presidential secretariat will represent Sri Lanka. Engaging in trade with India and China and regional countries is part of the plan to restore growth. Sri Lanka's exports to India were about $980 million in 2021 and imports $4.74 billion. This time Weerasinghe says we must avoid taking rigid inflexible positions and strive for a win-win for both sides.

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German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock says Germany will not be blackmailed. She rejected the idea that Russia is expanding its attacks on Ukraine in response to supply of longer range artillery from the US and Germany saying this was just "new propaganda from the Russian side."

Baerbock also said Germany needs to avoid a situation of being dependent on an aggressor for gas supply. Germany is now "very intensively" looking at its dependencies on China, said Baerbock. This is going to be  for "a sovereign European strategy of independence in critical infrastructure."

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Most American states fare worse than China in life expectancy and a third of American states including even Michigan fare worse than Sri Lanka in life expectancy. This series by Nicholas Kristof of the NYT looks at the interwoven problems from reading comprehension for 4th graders to a broken health system and large disparities of income never before experienced in this way through loss of manufacturing that are devastating America. Among retired people over half have no savings at all and about 90% of retired people are income insecure, something never before seen in the two hundred years of American history. 

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The internal feuds within Silicon Valley about ideas of altruism that support unlimited personal pursuit of profit including monopolistic behaviours, in the measure of their greed. And the presentation of lack of personal involvement in such gains by calling it altruistic. This justifies and puts a neat face on unlimited personal wealth creation in Silicon Valley at a time of great inequality and poverty in America. The consequences can be seen in the crumbling infrastructure and transportation services in New York City compared to that in newly industrializing countries such as China and India, the result of misallocation of capital.

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The dollar remains the dominant force in capital markets. It is strengthening after US central bank raised interest rates 8 times in 2021-2022 to about 5.25%. China is cutting interest rates as its economy with debt at about 290% of GDP is slowing, the EU increasing rates as it faces inflation fueled by price increases and some price gouging. In the US inflation is cut in half by Fed policy to 4% in May 2023, Biden's policies to help with the cost of living and restrain price gouging, and by supply chains working better than in 2021. The US looks the strongest of the lot.

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China has a loss in its construction industry, yet has worked hard to achieve a win in its EV industry, to bring the prices of EV's down to where it can be a people's car instead of a high end automobile. It is a win also for climate change and for getting European and US makers including Tesla to get their act together and make the cars at a price workers and ordinary people can afford. For this to happen for a level playing field the US government assistance to EV makers is essential to build America's industrial manufacturing base.

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The biggest decision coming out of the NATO and European Council meetings is Germany saying it supports stationing of long range missile systems in Germany by the US by 2026. German chancellor Scholz says the decision was a long time in the making and Germany supports it as a necessary step to secure the country. This happens as China's support to Russia continues through trade and economic relations and the Ukraine war prolonged for another year into 2025. Other decisions were to provide F-16's and added Patriot missile systems so that Ukraine can defend its skies from missile attacks.

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There were 2.5 million encounters at the US Border in Trump's first term says the BBC, under Biden's first term this number quadrupled to 10 million. Had the Biden administration done what it did for China policy and tariffs, quietly leaving them in place and tried sincerely to listen and work with Republicans, replaced Mayorkas in 2021 June when the migrant numbers reached 200,000 far surpassing the 150,000 high under DJT, and negotiated a new law by the end of 2021, this would have stopped asylum, added resources and closed the border in a timely delivery of needed action.

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China decides to go ahead with a reception honoring the 40th anniversary of the setting up of diplomatic ties with Japan in 1972. Hu Shuli, editor in chief of Caixin Media, economic journalist, says job losses for Chinese working in Japaneses owned companies will hurt China. China received $12.6 billion of Japanese investment in 2011, in comparison the U.S. received $14.7 billion, according to Japan's External Trade Organization.

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Experts in both the USA and China say that the trade deficit will remain a problem in US-China relations, as China now wants to see not an appreciation of its currency but some devaluation of its currency to promote its exports. Additionally both Congress and Mr. Obama are looking at trade relations carefully. Obama has been critical of how unfettered free trade has not been beneficial to both countries.

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Simon Jenkins of The Guardian says it is time to clear some of the myths around migrants, tariffs, and NATO and in this way action by the current Republican administration can be a positive step. Jenkins says DJT is moving quickly in the first 100 Days because most presidents get only 2 years to make changes before losing the House or the Senate making legislation difficult to pass. If it appears that things are happening on many fronts too quickly that is just the nature of things under a democratic process where checks and balances mean all three parts of government- executive powers of the president are balanced by powers of Congress and of the Supreme Court. Jenkins points out that action on migrants with the unease about millions of migrants coming in illegally, putting tariff barriers to bring manufacturing back and rebuilding America's forgotten middle class, cutting the bureaucracy and misuse of funds, sending education back to the states, and rethinking NATO bringing Russia back into the community of nations, will have long term positive effects long after the chaotic nature that they appear in the news cycle and the media presentation has passed. He cites China being invited back into the community of nations under Nixon. And today disarmament possible only by working with Russia, when China is moving in the direction of increasing nuclear missiles with trouble spots in Taiwan. He does not mention the sending back of about 1 million people back to Mexico under President Eisenhower in Operation Wetback in 1954, Harry Truman a senator from Missouri who led the effort to cut waste and fraud in government spending in the Second World War, the ED Hirsch graph showing reading comprehension scores of American K-12 headed one way - straight down since the 1960's showing education is failing in the US and needs parents and states to come up with new solutions.   ...

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With the government goal of a $5 trillion economy in the next five years, India is expected to be the fourth largest economy in the world by 2026 after the U.S., China and Japan. India moved past France and Britain and will move past Germany by 2026, making the U.S. the only non-Asian economy in the top four. Britain is holding its own and its economy is expected to be larger than France's in five years.

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Scientists have determined that formaldehyde emissions from chemical and oil refineries and vehicles play a significant role in creating the smog and haze in China. After recent improvements in air quality by limiting use of coal, the focus now shifts to other sources. 

Scientists say the formaldehyde emissions combine in a chemical reaction with the sulfur dioxide released from burning coal to create substances that create the smog and haze over Beijing and other cities.

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Two way trade is expanding at 35% for the last 5 years to $15 billion. A new goal is being set for expanding it to $50 billion by 2010. Senior executives of big Chinese infrastructure companies are involved and the exchange is at the highest level, with Bo Xilai, Commerce Minister of China, heading a 200 member delegation to New Delhi. This includes senior executives of Shanghai Electric Power Generation Group, ZTE Corp, and China Corporation Bank. US- India trade growth goals were set by President Bush in a recent visit. With Bo's visit China- India trade growth goals are being set on the same scale. Bo said China and India can learn a lot from each other- "China has a lot to offer in infrastructure development to India and we can learn about developing software, information technology, and how to improve the services sector."

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Sadanand Dhume in WSJ reflects opinion in the US that is wary of handout politics that has been carried to an extreme in India's election. In Venezuela the bad turn for the oil rich economy was when Chavez's successor Maduro ignorant of the problems it would create decided to give oil at almost no cost to all Venezuelans. In India the leading opposition party offered $1 lakh rupees to every woman in the state of Uttar Pradesh. India's federal government under Modi has given free food to about 800 million people and renewed the pledge this year because of the pandemic's devastating the rural economy- about 60% of India is still rural. This is essential for India to advance to build a broad based growth model for India similar to China 1990-2010 and Japan 1890-1915 and 1950-1970 during the transformation of their economies, similar also to the US under FDR/Truman/Eisenhower/Kennedy 1940-1965.  Clean environments Swacch Bharat was essential for basic sanitation and toilets to reduce health risks, cooking gas to shift rural women from firewood and health risks, direct deposit bank accounts for 300 million rural households essential to eliminate leakages, solar energy is planned to cut energy cost  This has brought and will bring the level of income and consumption power of the lower and middle classes to create a 500 million strong consumer base for industry. It is a carefully planned effort based on the success in states such as Gujarat, and looking at the way this was done in China and the US for learning lessons. It is not a reckless effort to win votes such as the offer of 1 lakh rupees to every woman in Uttar Pradesh state with no plan for industrialization and modernization of the Indian economy to make it the third largest ahead of the EU by 2035. Dhume is right to point this out and it is apparent to any outsider who looks at Sab Ka Vikas Sab Ke Saath- prosperity for all, including all parts of society irrespective of caste and religion.  ...

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WSJ's Andrew Restuccia and Michelle Hackman look at another deportation of about 1 million people of Mexican descent in 1954 under the Eisenhower administration. It looks at the human toll. Many of the people were brought in to tackle the shortage of men to do farm work and harvest crops during the war period 1941-1945.   The alternative proposed by Biden and senior Republican senators McConnell and Lankford and supported by most senior Republicans is the tough immigration legislation drafted by Lankford that president Harris has pledged to sign. In 1954 the US economy was a small fraction of what it is today and struggling from the aftermath of the world war and the Korean War. The US economy would suffer shortages of manpower in construction and farm work that would reduce economic growth by about 1%, from the effects of a 1954 type plan and from the distraction for American focus on chips, science, and manufacturing that is needed to compete in a new world of India, China in addition to Japanese EU competition. States such as Kansas in the midwest feel this shortage, and in the Carolinas in the south, Red states and blue face shortages. Kansas is actively seeking new legal immigrants and welcoming them as shown in the WSJ. This is a different country than 1954 and this must be recognized or we will fall behind China, Japan and India. Cultural literacy is world knowledge and was proposed before by the Exxon Foundation and E. D. Hirsch in 1988. This needs to be revived so that children like Harris who know enough about American history, language and culture to be productive American citizens- as they learn in school and through interaction with fellow citizens in the neighborhood and libraries- can become the norm. There is no reason this cannot be done effectively with the resources committed to this from the federal and state governments in tens of billions of dollars, including to the library system, community colleges, community civic education centers, and to literacy and world knowledge sites such as Lyrarc.com, Wikipedia and Britannica.com. ...

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Ford's efforts in the Asian markets, boosting capacity by 50% in China and 100% in India since 2007. Capacity is 450,000 cars in China in 2010 and 200,000 cars in India. In China Ford is tied for No 11 with Geely and FAW, 2 local companies, VW, GM, Suzuki and others are way ahead of Ford. Suzuki dominates the Indian market with 53% share. To keep up with demand Ford is sourcing heavily locally with 85% of Figo components sourced locally in india and 90% of parts purchased locally in China. The lack of early focussed effort in China is evident from the lack of choices- only Fiesta, Focus, Mondeo and S Max Minivan are available as choices. And one new model choice is to be added each year from now till 2013. Ford is betting heavily on the $7600 Figo for motorbike users who shift to autos, but GM has the Chevy Beat and VW has the Polo in this small car segment. And VW plans to launch seven locally produced models in 2010 and GM plans 10 new models this year. In fact GM now sells more cars in China than in the USA....

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Important to distinguish in GNP, GDP and GDP per capita. The official rate of 10-11% growth is questioned by Thurow by noting that 70% of China in the rural area is seeing slow growth and if the urban economy has to grow at 33 % if the whole of China is to grow by 11%. He also brings up electricity consumption historicaly growing much faster than the growth rate of GNP or GDP. At breakneck growth rates gorwth has still been 60% of the gorwth in electricity consumption because some of it is wasted or is not used productively.He does not give his electricity consumption growth for China numbers, but we can extrapolate from the 6% growth in China analogous to Japanese growth rates in the 1970's that he comes up with, to see that electricity growth rates he assumes in his math are 10% a year in China. That is based on 6% growth he gives for China constituting 60% of the growth in electricity consumption for China. Given the validity of this math China and India are growing at much slower rates than official math states. This also means productivity of capital remains a major issue and does not simply go away when seeing the countries as a whole not just coastal and other well developed regions of India and China. So the message that is being projected about Chinese growth may be misleading as urbanization in China will still have to proceed for many decades for the growth to even out geographically. Another fact that immigration has been a source of additional people for the USA and so a significant population increase will be seen in the US in the next few decades even as China's population declines, supporting much larger economic activity in the USA. Europe also is seeing no increase in population. Europe's per capita income fell from 85% of that of the US in 1990, to 66% in 2007 according to the IMF statistics quoted here. Validation of these numbers would provide a different assessment of overenthusiasm for the kind of haphazard growth which also wastes resources and sacrifices the environment and shortchanges health, education and other goals, and instead promotes a different view that constantly looks for better ways of meeting the difficult challenges facing China and India. With these...

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This report in the BBC looks at China's telecom Huawei and points out that the new headquarters of the African Union were built in Addis Abba, Ethiopia at a cost of $200 million in Chinese aid. Later Le Monde Afrique reported that data from the headquarters was transferred to servers in Shanghai.