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Two Harvard economists, Lawrence Summers and Lant Pritchett, say China is likely to revert to the mean of average long term growth of developed countries after this spurt of growth is over. Growth is likely to slow to 6% by 2016, and revert to the mean of 2% for industrialized countries in the long term. Goldman Sachs banker Jim O'Neill, says the growth at a higher rate could be sustained because of urbanization. Summers does not rule out this outcome as he accepts a range of outcomes, with the most likely outcome being a reversion to the mean. The factors often cited for slowing growth are lower of productivity of capital as corruption and close connections determine where capital is allocated, misallocation of capital, large increases in credit in the economy since 2009 leading to bad debt in the financial system, aging society and demographics with increasing numbers of older people. Other reasons are the choices being made by Chinese leaders for slowing down to address the problems of air pollution and contamination of water supplies, inflation in housing prices, overdependence on exports, need to shift to increasing domestic consumer spending but unable to do this with the lack of spending power of large parts of the population because wealth is excessively concentrated in the upper ranks of society. The need to manage these forces ensuring some measure of stability depends on finding ways to reduce the growing concentration of wealth and power, in itself a challenge for the Communist Party elite. A combination of different factors with some still unknown factors are likely to play a part in this reversion to the mean for China, a situation encountered by every country so far in North America, Europe and Japan. This makes it even more important that each developing society structure its development around the most optimal goals with the least costs attached to the development....

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How Dreamliner lithium-ion batteries work. What could have caused the batteries to reach thermal runway temperatures and ignite causing the fire that led to emergency landing of the ANA Dreamliner in Jan 2013. Overcharging is one possible cause say experts, another is a manufacturing defect.

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Germany's SPD Deputy Chancellor says in Kiev on August 25, 2025 after the abortive effort by DJT in Alaska for peace talks that improved Russia -US relations as two leading world nuclear powers but did not have the basics in place for Ukraine- Russia direct talks, with Putin asking for territory in the east. "In the three and a half years that this war has been going on, we have always shown that we are not ducking away, but stand by the side of the Ukrainians. And that will also apply to security guarantees."  The big change is that the SPD under Klingbeil in Germany is now working with CDU's Merz to build up Germany's defense forces to act as a deterrent for Europe. There is a change in the mood in Germany and in Europe, from Sweden and UK , France, Italy, for concerted action in Europe that was not seen before. By taking on responsibilities for Europe with 2-5% defense expenditures this has removed the differences between the US and Europe. It means a prolongation of the war but also means this may lead to a stronger Europe, better Russia- US relations, and a Russian and Ukraine more willing to come to a peace agreement based on terms where no side appears to be the loser. Klingbeil added- It is important to have a "really strong Ukrainian army that is also capable of defense. And the second thing is that armaments production is also being ramped up here in Ukraine as well, thereby putting Ukraine in a position to defend itself and deter attacks." If European history since 1400 is any guide when the powers on either side were eventually counterbalanced the power that took a an aggressive position early had to settle for a peace settlement with both sides not appearing the loser. ...

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Guardiam Oped by Keir Starmer for Britain and Mette Frederiksen of Denmark  December 9, 2025. Both leaders of socialist parties in Northern Europe, and Starmer now keen on following the example of fighting illegal migration set by Mette Frederiksen in Denmark. "When trust in government to confront the challenges of today falters, our sense of shared belonging can begin to crack. As the prime ministers of two great European nations, we will not let this happen." "That’s why we are both taking practical action to fix the asylum system. Denmark has led the way here, with tough but fair reforms which have delivered results. Last year, the number of people being granted asylum in Denmark was the lowest in 40 years, excluding the Covid year of 2020. The UK has taken similar steps. After years of gimmicks and failed policies, we are going further than ever before with action at home – surging removals of those with no right to be here and making settlement reliant on integration and contribution, while pushing for coordinated international action too." This addresses the problem of illegal migration to Britain that is threatening to create further divisions in Britain as if Austerity, Brexit divisions, followed by Covid have not rocked Britain enough already. Starmer says he will protect Britain's borders to protects its democracy, and that responsible progressive governments can and will deliver on the change people are crying out for- Britain will follow Denmark's example. They will join Italy, Germany, Austria and other nations that are moving in this direction. ...

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Local government elections in the Mumbai region show a strong win for the BJP party running the Federal Government  under PM Modi in City of Mumbai and cities of Nagpur, Pune and Pimpri, with about half of the seats contested won by the BJP Party. Key to winning the election is the voter trust in the Vikshit Bharat goal for a Modernized India by 2036 and 2047 in two phases. This is likely to influence the elections in West Bengal State that are coming up in April 2026 with the city of Kolkata. PM Modi opened several Rail projects for West Bengal and conducted rallies in the state which is governed by a party that has not worked to industrialize the state for two decades using a local linguistic and regional identity to win elections. Vikshit Bharat is likely to come to West Bengal as it has to the Mumbai region, giving the Federal Government run by the BJP Party an opportunity to form local governments and state governments that cooperate with the Federal Government of PM Modi. These 2 regions the Mumbai and Kolkata regions are the last regions that have fought central modernization efforts and promoted politics that are conducive to mismanagement and corruption, clanish arrangements for the 2 states Maharashtra and West Bengal. For India to compete with China, to catch up with China, and fulfill the hopes and aspirations of 1.4 billion people this is one more of the missing pieces that is being put in place for Vikshit Bharat. Seen from Europe and the US it shows how big the visit of Merz and the Modi Merz Kite Flying effort in Ahmedabad recently means for India as well as US and Europe. Merz has chose India as its leading partner, Germany has chosen this road, with lasting confidence in Modi's Vikshit Bharat effort for 2036 and 2047. ...

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Increasing use of opioids, suicides, chronic liver disease, are resulting in higher mortality rates for white Americans middle aged 45-54. This group has been hit hard by manufacturing losses, by the mortgage crisis of 2008 with its aftermath of job losses and low interest rates that slashed savings. Added to this is the effect of people with lower incomes needing to take retirement social security early, leading to another hit on incomes and the quality of lives, increasing uncertainty and even despair. People without a college education are hit harder in the current environment with fewer opportunities and greater uncertainty in life. The social security check being smaller for this group and its shorter life span means more of the social security pie is going to better off Americans who retire later, creating a uniquely American situation of widening economic inequality and unfair distribution of the economic benefits of society. This means disadvantaged groups are facing a crisis that will affect not just this generation but the children of these disadvantaged groups for the next generation- a failure to keep the promise of "life, liberty, and the pursuit of happiness," American ideal for most of its history. ...

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Who should lead the Conservative Party in 2016 till the next elections in 2020? The Economist magazine says strong negotiating skills and stamina are needed, and on this point it says Theresa May, Home Secretary, does better than former Energy minister, Andrea Leadsom, who has not done such tough negotiating and is not so well known as May. May had the support of 199 members of parliament to 84 for Leadsom, whose experience is less and was junior Treasury minister in prior position compared to May's 6 years in the position of Home Secretary handling immigration issues. Being an ardent Brexiter Leadsom has an advantage with Brexit supporters, though May handled her Brexit Remain position in a low key way and can appeal to both sides of the Conservative party. The result will come from a postal ballot to 150,000 members of the Conservative Party.

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Dan Balz describes the resilience of Donald Trump's candidacy, and the contest between Cruz and Trump, both tapping into anger at the grassroots. He points to the little headway made by the other candidates, Rubio, Kasich, Bush and Carson. Trump's high moment was when he described the way New Yorkers handled the 9/11 collapse of the World Trade Center and other buildings. Cruz passionately handled questions on the birth issue- being born of an American mother in Canada- and the loan from Goldman Sachs, coming out stronger than before.

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This editorial in the Washington Post describes joining Russia in joint action in Syria and Iraq as a dangerous policy for the U.S., for several reasons. The main being that Russia has been the obstacle to peace in the region because of the way all Sunnis in the Muslim world now see Russian actions as leading to millions of refugees and the prolonged war. It also says Russian forces are not effective in the current campaign. It cites Secretary of State Kerry's comments about Sunni perceptions of Russia's role.

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U.S. GDP growth is 1.5% for the second quarter after 2% growth in the first quarter. The slower growth shows that much of the productive capacity of the U.S. economy is not being utilized. See the graph showing the growth during the recovery after the recession of 2009 compared to the recessions in 2001, 1991, 1980, 1975, 1970. The curve is much flatter this time. Every recovery except the recovery in 1980 shows a faster rebound. Economic recoveries have taken longer over time since the postwar boom period.

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The U.S. attorney's office in Manhattan filed charges against Swiss bank Wegelin for helping Americans hide $1.2 billion in secret accounts at the bank. Even after UBS was being prosecuted for similiar charges, Wegelin, the oldest bank in Switzerland, is said in the indictment to have pursued the UBS clients to open accounts with Wegelin. Clients were told that Wegelin based in St. Gallen, Switzerland had no overseas business and was less susceptible to legal enforcement. UBS admitted to conspiring to engage in fradulent activity in 2009 and paid a $780 million fine.

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David Carr writes about the movie "The Company Men," and how it should be a must see for American business. He says the movie uses the plot of a couple of rich guys losing their jobs, to ask one of the big questions for today: How is it that corporate profits and unemployment can be so high at the same time. And companies have a large amount of cash raised in capital markets at the same time that only a fraction of that is being invested to create new jobs.

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Car size shrinks as the Focus, Spark, Aveo, Cruze small cars attract attention at the 2010 International Auto Show in Detroit. The big change is that these small cars are following the European small car in being refined and sophisticated, with a lot of features. This isn't the Chevette that Americans knew in the sixties and seventies, and the perception of what is the right size and comfort is changing completely as a new generation of buyers brought up in a world of pc's, i-phones, and globalized cultures is in the driver seat.

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Krugman points out that the loss of 490,000 public sector jobs in Britain, as laid out in British Finance Minister Osborne's plan, is equivalent to the loss of 3 million jobs in the U.S.. He does not see the private sector being able to create the jobs to make up for this loss. He cites Osborne's speech to Parliament, in which he said that "Britain was on the brink of bankruptcy," as a shift in rhetoric of the Cameron government from hope to concern that jobs in the private sector would not materialize.

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Francois Hollande leads in public opinion polls for the second round of voting in France's presidential election by 56% to Sarkozy's 44% in February 2012. Sarkozy has closed the gap for the first round of voting. Sarkozy' popularity has suffered from being president at the time of the global economic crisis of 2008 and the current eurozone crisis, and for his aggressive style. Hollande has been consistently underestimated in France with a nice guy image, but has proven to be a persistent campaigner and effective voice for the Socialist party in the current economic crisis.

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The American Israel Public Affairs Committee meeting at a large convention center and calls for military action against Iran. Milbank says the situation is reminiscent of Bush's statements about Iraq in 2003 before the invasion- that though Bush insisted that "war is my last choice," war was coming and was being planned. And he points out whatever doubts President Obama and his advisors may have about the effectiveness of a military strike in moving Iran away from nuclear weapons development, the U.S. President may be setting in motion developments leading to war.

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Athens is far from being her normal self with high unemployment, shuttered shops and periodic violence. Unemployment at about 23% and the worsening economic crisis is leading to dwindling support for the main parties Pasok and New Democracy. Support is growing for fringe parties, including neo-nazi type parties. The mood is shifting in Europe, with the presidential elections in France and the likely election of Socialist candidate Hollande, who has described the EU's handling of Greece as deplorable. New elections will take place later in 2012 in the Netherlands.

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Friedman says Obama's 2012 presidential campaign lacks bold vision, a failure to articulate tangible achievements, and owes too much to campaign consultants. He describes it as being developed in test tube fashion. The failure to embrace and strongly advocate his own presidential commission's Simpson-Bowles deficit reduction plan, which could be coupled with long term investment in the productive potential of the U.S. economy, shows the lack of courage to prepare a plan going forward. It is likely to cost support of independent, center and center-right voters in the 2012 U.S. presidential election.

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Henninger points out what he sees as the problem Democrats in the White House have faced since the days of Lyndon Johnson and Vietnam in this WSJ editorial commentary. Under Warren, O'Malley, Clinton or Obama, he sees the response being the same- of lettting a crisis develop to the point where America faces the use of overwhelming power to not acting at all, with no action in between. More likely that the U.S. would find itself on the east side of New York at the UN if that were to happen, says Henninger.

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Amazon workers in Germany and the U.S. protest low wages. Amazon has about 9000 employees at 9 logistics centers in Germany. The company gets $8.7 billion of global sales of $61 billion from Germany. The retail and mail order sector in Germany has higher wages than the logistics sector. Amazon classifies its employees as being in the logistics sector. Amazon is using 14,000 temporary workers in Germany to cope with the protests and strikes during the Christmas season. It is also using its Europe wide network to cope.

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U.S. CFTC head Gensler favored a rule that would require asset managers like Vanguard and Pimco to contact at least five banks when looking for a price on a derivatives contract. The idea was to foster competition among the banks. Gensler failed to get the third vote from Democratic commissioner Wetjen on this requirement and settled for a requirement to contact at least two banks. The new rules for derivative contracts are being set to meet the rule making requirements set by the Dodd-Frank legislation in the U.S.

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The failed June 2007 bombings planed and executed outside of the theater district in London and at the Glasgow airport terminal do not get as much media attention now but could have done a lot of damage and caused many deaths and injuries as well as panic in London and Glasgow. The terrorists were from Iraq and Jordan London and highly educated being doctors and part of the National Health Service. In the light of the Mumbai attacks it shows that the vulnerability of the UK from disaffected muslims.

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Free trade agreements have become a flood in Asia, with 42 in 1999 up to 166 in June 2009 according to the Asian Development Bank. The absence of trade agreement at the global level has not slowed this trend. Another 62 are being negotiated, including one between India and Japan, China and Taiwan. India signed an agreement in September, that it hopes will allow it to become a hub for Korean electronics companies seeking to exploit lower labor costs for products aimed at markets in the Middle East.

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A unit of RBS, possibly in Asia, is likely to plead guilty to manipulating the London interbank offered rate (LIBOR). A settlement with U.S. prosecutors is likely by mid-Feb. 2013. A penalty of 500 million pounds or $790 million is expected as part of a legal settlement, according to people briefed on negotiations. RBS is 82% owned by the British government. This follows legal settlements totalling about $2 billion with Barclays and UBS. Banks are also concerned about the risks of private litigation. Deutsche Bank is being investigated for its involvement.

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A Brookings Institution study finds patents produced in a few cities in the U.S. In addition to Silicon Valley, the area around Santa Clara and San Jose, the study finds Rochester, Minnesota, Corvallis, Oregon, Burlington, Vermont, and Boulder, Colorado, as cities where there is a high degree of patent activity. The IBM research centre in Corvallis, Oregon, is one reason for Oregon being on the list. The greatest importance is having a research university nearby. Government funding of research universities helps fund new research. The study finds strong correlation between patents and innovation.