LyrArc Article Gist
Upcoming Biden meetings with G-7 leaders, EU leaders, NATO, and president Putin of Russia. Biden's goal of US leadership in Asia, Latin America and Europe in close alliance with allies Britain, France, Japan, India and Australia. 

LyrArc Article Gist
Xi Jinping's 3 day visit to Russia and his meetings with Mr. Putin. China presents the trip as an effort to start peace talks between Russia and Ukraine based on its proposals. China is also affected by the war in Ukraine as it works against China's recovery from the economic effects of the pandemic. China sees Russia as a partner in what it sees as a multipolar world, yet it is too close to Germany and the European Union, relations which provide it with access to western technology needed for its continuing growth. China does not want to disrupt the relationship with Germany and the European Union over the war in Ukraine.

LyrArc Article Gist
Steps the US has taken to not let the war escalate even as it arms Ukraine to be able to defend itself. The goal being to defend Ukraine and seek a settlement as quickly as possible with Russia. Biden, Macron and Scholz have talked to Putin in the last few weeks as the winter war drags on with no one gaining from this war. 

LyrArc Article Gist
Iran War and rescue of pilot of downed F15-E in mountainous terrain in southern Iran April 4 2026. CSAR or Search and Rescue Missions become a critical part of the war. The pilot was a colonel trained for the mission and spent 24 hours in mountainous terrain which was monitored by US forces, after intelligence located him in a mountain crevice. For this to be possible unlike in the Vietnam War and Korean War other nations are not involved as in the earlier Cold War.  The US under DJT as president has shifted to respecting Russia as a Northern European power that it can talk with (meetings with Putin in Alaska 2025) and China as a trade partner (planned meeting in Beijing in April 2026) that it can talk with unlike with previous administrations of Biden, Obama and Bush where China had afree hand in economic matters and global trade and Russia was shut out of the world economic system by elites who ran the government in the US at that time. Russia seeks reintegration in the world political and economic systems, and China seeks acceptance as an economic power which the US respects, both points in which the US has offered to accept. US has also repeated the line to China that it was not going to do the job of keeping Hormuz open for China and Japan to get 90% of oil imports, and in oding so risk losing its soldier's lives, while China and Japan can quietly watch doing nothing to help free navigation of international waters. Note that the narrowest strip of water of 13 miles separates Oman from Iran so that a part of these waters are on the Omani side and not on the Iranian side making free use of that Omani part under international law possible- in which sense Iranian hostile activity closing the Omani side also is a violation of free navigation. This is not pointed out by Iran or Japan or even Britain who are benefitting from US action and remaining silent or being ambivalent or accusing US of being interventionist even when everyone knows MAGA base rejected Bush in the Republican party and the elites and embraced DJT for great part because they want nothing to do with interventionist adventures in the Middle East for certain. US is getting a bum rap from European allies and from China, India, Japan and the media inside the US and in those countries as if the US seeks oil from the Middle East. It was Britain where a lot of the posturing goes on about non intervention that started this oil based intervention since 1900 in Iran itself, and in artificial states of Iraq, Syria, that it created out of the collapsed Ottoman Empire in World War 1. Sykes and Picot were the US and French diplomats who set that up. US under DJT has accomplished self sufficiency in oil and US has no need for anything from the Middle East, no desire to even get involved, and MAGA well grasps that fact and wants to keep it that way. Only nuclear weapons and ballistic missiles with long range to hit US and EU are reason for US action, which is reason enough for EU, China, Russia to set their own goals so that non proliferation in dangerous areas is prevented. So that the people of China, Russia, India, Europe and the rest of the world can enjoy the fruits of their own labors after a century of severe hardships and struggles which the American people if not their elites respect, and the fruits of peaceful cooperation which the American people extend to the World, and to China, Russia and India. ...

LyrArc Article Gist
Henrik Bohme says not just Putin is responsible for the situation Germany faces of a cutoff of supplies of gas from Russia if the Nordstream pipeline never comes back on after maintenance. Bohme says that in September 2018 at the UN  General Assembly Donald Trump told Germany to look in the mirror, saying that Germany would become completely dependent on Russian energy if it did not change course immediately. In return Trump only got laughter and head shaking from the German delegation says Bohme. Over that period the response was the same from Merkel and the CDU - a smugness and condescending attitude to the US. When the US imposed sanctions on Nordstream 2 Germans suspected a backhanded trick to get Germany to buy dirty fracked gas. Today it is buying the same fracked gas from the US and asking for more. It is similar to the situation for coal as coal is being brought from Colombia.

LyrArc Article Gist
A sense that president Putin may have seriously "miscalculated" the scale of Ukrainian resistance and that he may not be getting the right information from subordinates. The conflict does not appear to be in Russia's long term interest, making it weaker with western sanctions.

For EU the shift away from Russian oil supplies shifts to supplies from Qatar and other nations and use of LNG terminals. The US and EU will likely see a more effective shift to renewable energy after the Ukraine war. Increased funding for defense in US and EU and the funding for social goals with a wealth tax planned in the US.

China also sees an impact on its economy and long term growth with sharply reduced access to western technology and research, and restructuring of supply chains to be shorter and focus more on South and Southeast Asia, less on China.

LyrArc Article Gist
U.S. senior Republican Senators Lindsay Graham of South Carolina and John McCain of Arizona, are getting ready to launch a wide ranging probe of Russian interference in the U.S. 2016 presidential election through cyber attacks. The probe is not limited to DNC hacking and the concern is not just that any one candidate was targeted but for the integrity of the American election process. Even though it is not mentioned in this report in the Washington Post by Demirjian, Senators and Congressmen from the Republican Party in charge of key committees of oversight on foreign policy and defense now see it as their responsibility to prevent an enlargement of cyberattacks as Germany and France face elections. Mr. Trump has said in an interview with Time magazine that Russia was not responsible for cyber attacks, that it "could have been China, it could have been some guy in New Jersey." Senator McCain is readying a probe into cyber attacks into U.S. weapons systems, and U.S. military, as the issue widens in its scope and significance for the West and for the U.S. and its allies in Europe and Asia. Senate Select Intelligence Committee Chairman Richard Burr (N.C.) will be working closely with McCain, Senate Armed Services Committee Chairman, on this particular issue and Senator Mitch McConnell has been apprised of the discussions, according to this report in WP. Senator Graham said- "They'll keep doing more here until they pay a price." Graham will hold a series of investigative hearings in 2017 about Russian meddling and "misadventures throughout the world."  This will include new legislation.  Graham told CNN on Dec. 7, 2016 in strong language- "I am going after Russia in every way you can go after Russia. I think they are one of the most destabilizing influences on the world stage. I think they did interfere with our election, and I want Putin personally to pay the price." During the debates Governor Pence of Indiana, the Vice President elect took a strong position on Russia, and the Vice President's positions on foreign policy and defense are similar to that of the Republican leaders in Congress.  It is hard to remember a time in the post war period when there was such a distinct difference in foreign policy and defense as it relates to Russia between a Republican president and both a Republican Congress and almost all Republican governors. Senator Corker from Tennessee, who heads the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, is on the short list to be Secretary of State. A related story in the WSJ shows the selection of military leaders for key intelligence, defense and homeland security, and Gen. Petraeus considered for foreign policy, as diverging from historical practice of keeping civilian oversight preeminent in the U.S.. Rep. Peter King, an early supporter of Trump, who is on committees for intelligence and counterterrorism told MSNBC, that he is confident that Trump will not be "taken in by Putin." The U.S. Republican dominated Congress has taken a strong position on Russian interference in Syria and Ukraine. In the House of Representatives Republican Rep. Devin Nunes from California and Rep. Mac Thornberry from Texas are leading efforts on cyber and intelligence as heads of their committees. ...

LyrArc Article Gist
At the G-7 in Italy Biden says- "he (Putin) cannot wait us out." A ten year pact on defense is signed with Ukraine by the US. A $50 billion loan is made to Ukraine with interest from frozen Russian assets in the EU.

LyrArc Article Gist
The difficulties of unwinding war stimulus that has increased jobs and wages in poorer regions of Russia, and the problems with unwinding a war economy, are discussed here by experts from Russia, the US and Germany. Other aspects include what to do with hundreds of thousands of new recruited soldiers who would be unemployed during a period when the economy's growth has slowed and wage growth is slowing. In 2024 new recruits were given 1 years bonus and were being attracted in large numbers. JD Vance mentioned this to the new Pope in discussions, and this report says even Putin does not know how best to unwind this war economy. Vance told Pope Leo XIV -“I’m not sure that Vladimir Putin himself has a strategy for how to unwind the war.” This is the view also from an expert at the Free University of Berlin, as rapidly demobilizing a large army poses its own problems. Russia could export the arms from new arms factories and keep people employed. This option is difficult as many African countries buy on credit and Asian other buyers may seek the latest technologies, others face financial difficulties or like India are diversifying and shifting to local manufacturing. ...

LyrArc Article Gist
President Putin's United Russia Party wins 54.3% of the votes cast, and 338 seats in the parliament. This is 100 more seats than in the last election. About 47% of voters voted compared to 60% of voters in the last election, showing lower voter turnout and less enthusiasm than in the last election. 

LyrArc Article Gist
Gregory White and Anton Troianovski provide this exceptional account of how Russian president Putin miscalculated all through 2013 and 2014 about the way Germany and the EU would respond to Russia's actions in Ukraine. Putin also according to other accounts miscalculated how Saudi Arabia and OPEC nations would act on maintaining oil production in the middle of a slowdown in the economies of Asia and Europe. A combination of events beyond his control such as the economic slowdown in the second half of 2014, with the miscalculations on OPEC price moves particularly following Russia's failed Syrian intervention disrupting Saudi-Russian relations, caused the damage. Major miscalculations were made about German cooperation in the face of Putin's moves- the changed convictions of German chancellor Merkel about Russian intentions following repeated Ukraine interventions, and changes in German public opinion following the downing of a Malaysian airliner flight in which many Dutch citizens lost their lives. Putin used subterfuge to coverup his actions making his story line less credible with Germans with each repetition. The result of these miscalculations and lost confidence in Russia's economy and policymaking is that the Ruble dropped to 62 to the dollar, losing nearly half its value in 2014, and a deep recession expected in 2015. Even though Russian takeover in Crimea enjoys support and Putin still has widespread support for nationalist policy with a tightly controlled media, many officials in the government and business leaders warned about the dangers for Russia's economy in 2014. Former finance minister Kudrin, and the head of Sberbank, who were principal architects for Russian finances and economic policy reforms, were clear about the dangers. Only by Nov- Dec 2014 were their voices being heard. ...

LyrArc Article Gist
Tomahawk missile transfer by the US to Ukraine would not change the war on the front lines in Ukraine as both sides are entrenched in their positions with not much progress. What it would do is provide capabilities for strikes on oil facilities that cause problems for the economy and standards of living. The idea is to get Russia to the table for serious talks knowing it will have to also make some concessions. US is thinking about how to do this to get to talks without turning this into an escalation. This is why the DJT meeting with Putin in Budapest is planned.

LyrArc Article Gist
Germany's SPD Deputy Chancellor says in Kiev on August 25, 2025 after the abortive effort by DJT in Alaska for peace talks that improved Russia -US relations as two leading world nuclear powers but did not have the basics in place for Ukraine- Russia direct talks, with Putin asking for territory in the east. "In the three and a half years that this war has been going on, we have always shown that we are not ducking away, but stand by the side of the Ukrainians. And that will also apply to security guarantees."  The big change is that the SPD under Klingbeil in Germany is now working with CDU's Merz to build up Germany's defense forces to act as a deterrent for Europe. There is a change in the mood in Germany and in Europe, from Sweden and UK , France, Italy, for concerted action in Europe that was not seen before. By taking on responsibilities for Europe with 2-5% defense expenditures this has removed the differences between the US and Europe. It means a prolongation of the war but also means this may lead to a stronger Europe, better Russia- US relations, and a Russian and Ukraine more willing to come to a peace agreement based on terms where no side appears to be the loser. Klingbeil added- It is important to have a "really strong Ukrainian army that is also capable of defense. And the second thing is that armaments production is also being ramped up here in Ukraine as well, thereby putting Ukraine in a position to defend itself and deter attacks." If European history since 1400 is any guide when the powers on either side were eventually counterbalanced the power that took a an aggressive position early had to settle for a peace settlement with both sides not appearing the loser. ...

LyrArc Article Gist
Steinmeier has pursued the middle road in Germany's relations with Russia even after the tensions over Ukraine. He says we have to put behind us the illusions that a multipolar world will replace the bipolar world. He looks to his Protestant faith in these times, and says it is important to stay involved, and not allow escalation of conflicts at the periphery, such as the one in Ukraine. Critics such as the German newspaper Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung, say his diplomacy and efforts at Ostpolitik is a matter of just opening doors, that Putin has already created discord in Europe.

LyrArc Article Gist
This NYT article looks at another side of Biden in the meeting with Putin, Biden's optimism. Biden says of his style- "the important thing is to put an optimistic front, an optimistic face." By doing this he achieved more with Putin than was thought possible after years of deteriorating relations. In a way it could be said that Biden brought the optimism that Russia, Germany, France, India, and other nations, the rest of the world also need, especially now during the pandemic. He prepared carefully for his meeting, more than most presidents, much more than Reagan, Trump or Obama. He met with German and French  leaders, prepared with Blinken and Sullivan, coordinated with G-7 allies at Cornwall in the UK, in a way that was rarely done before.  After the meeting Biden could tell reporters "The country has put a different face on where we've been and where we're going- and I feel good about it." It is also a measure of Biden's leadership style that he took a constructive approach in the face of difficult issues.  Biden based it on a sound footing. The way Biden says "is to know what your adversary's interests are." In Russia's case Biden and his team see this as "legitimacy, standing in the world stage." And for Russia "desperately wanting to be relevant." For the most part Putin and Russia responded positively to this effort by Biden to change the tone, texture of voice, and manner in the conversation. ...

LyrArc Article Gist
Simon Denyer talks to experts in China in this remarkable piece about the risks to China's own forward development for the economy and society of adopting the so called Putin Way. Particularly when Mr. Putin himself may have second thoughts about as it offers so little and risks so much- actions in Ukraine reduce trade, much needed foreign investment and technology leading to slow growth. This is because technologically advanced societies and economies in a globally interdependent economy need to remain open and vibrant. Mr. Putin's failure to transform Russia's economy from overdependence on commodity exports, while risking development further for relatively insignificant gains on the fringes of its borders, reduces his own development scorecard from a B in the first term to a C in the second. Russia and China have large rural population with low incomes, and the risk is that these emerging markets will fall into the "middle income trap" reaching a certain level and then stagnating, with the additional burden of an an aging population. The irony is that Mr. Putin was elected with the help of this rural population outside the big cities specifically to preserve and expand economic gains made in the first term not erode these economic gains....

LyrArc Article Gist
German chancellor Olaf Scholz is on his first trip to Africa. He called for serious attention to problems of food and energy supplies, energy prices, in African countries. He visited Niger, Senegal, and this interview with DW.com was done in Johannesburg, South Africa. Scholz called for European countries to assume responsibility for their colonial past and to increase food supplies to Africa. He said "it is obvious that a lot of countries are suffering from this war" with the grain shortages that are hitting Africa hard. In the intervew Scholz tells DW Political Editor Michaela Kufner that he has talked directly with Putin and told him that the war "will never have a good outcome" for Russia. "They will go back in their opportunities of economic development for decades, tey will suffer and they are suffering, and for getting out of this Putin has to stop the war." Scholz said Putin had made the decision to wage " a very brutal war" with "an imperialistic approach" and manner of thinking. ...

LyrArc Article Gist
Germany and the European Union are improving their defenses as the conflict drags on. The US position DJT has articulated is to bring an end to the war to end the daily loss of lives on both sides. Looking back was it worth loss of hundreds of thousands of lives on both sides and the damage to the economy, to housing from bombing, and the millions of refugees many older people, just for the Association Agreement with the European Union in 2013-2014. This has been completely mismanaged by all sides, the EU officials responsible, the governments in Europe including Russia and Germany, and Ukraine's political parties and their appeal to the people, and by the administration of Obama in the US. DJT and administration officials have long made it clear that they don't want this war, the war in Ukraine. A conflict that has been going on in some form or other between parts of Ukraine in the west and Russian influenced regions in the east as governments changed before and after protests in Kviv in 2013 over an agreement on association with the European Union long before the current war; some favorable to Putin and some not like the current government. So it is surprising that Medvedev would make remarks about DJT and the US to draw a confrontation between the two powers US and Russia in this way in X, remarks DJT calls "inflammatory."  Especially when the US is trying its best to negotiate and end to the war by pressuring both sides. It's defending of Ukraine only to stop the missile attacks on it's cities to give peaceful resolution a chance, not to aggravate the conflict.   ...

LyrArc Article Gist
US president Biden authorizes $350 million in immediate military assistance to Ukraine. Western leaders now believe that NATO countries are at risk if they do not help stop the invasion, as it now appears that Russia seeks to restore a sphere of influence across Eastern Europe that existed under the Soviet Union. In 1956 Soviet tanks entered Budapest, Hungary. A situation reminiscent of that in Hungary is now taking place in Ukraine in 2022. Earlier the Russian view of Ukraine neutrality was accepted by western leaders- the situation has changed during the last week, as it is now perceived that Russia seeks to change the situation in Eastern Europe. This completely alters western Europe's and America's view of the situation in Ukraine. All this has happened in a matter of days, and in a few weeks. On the Russian side the invasion is not popular with street protests in Moscow and people on the street skeptical about the invasion and its objectives. The view is beginning to emerge that this invasion only breaks the fraternal ties between the Belarus, Ukrainian and Russian peoples that have existed for centuries. In this sense the politics and governments of the present are not relevant as much as the shared history. Ironically it is this shared history that Mr. Putin seemed to want to assert. Yet it ignored the fact that Ukraine also has a shared history with Poland and the Baltic countries and the desire for a different system of government is common to all the people's of the world. Sri Lanka, Bangladesh, Indonesia and India; UK and Scotland or Ireland; Sweden, Norway and Denmark, Canada, Britain and the US; Hungary, Austria and Germany; all have a shared history yet the people in each country at different periods of history have made their own choices and decided what they would do as independent countries.  ...

LyrArc Article Gist
The Times of London offers this Analysis of Chinese president Xi's visit to Russia for a Victory Day Parade to be attended by 20 countries including Serbia, Venezuela's Maduro, and Brazil's Inacio Lula Da Silva. Soldiers from China will March in the Red Army Parade. Other countries attending are Indonesia, Egypt, Iraq.

XI and Putin have a new common view of the war as aginst the Nazis and Japanese Imperialism. The role of US Gen. Joe Stilwell in uniting Chinese forces to fight the Japanese is not mentioned in history books in China as the focus under Xi has shifted to increase the importance of the common fight in Russia and China aginst Germany and Japan.

LyrArc Article Gist
Svrluga looks at the prospects for making use of the Olympic facilities costing about $47 billion in Sochi and the Krasnaya Polyana region after the 2014 games are over. This depends on Putin and future Russian governments placing priority on developing the region. A shift in priorities or lack of funding for development and attracting visitors as a tourism destination would leave many facilities empty. Prime minister Medvedev has called for a plan to make use of facilities. Some of the facilities will be used in the 2018 soccer World Cup and other sports events.

LyrArc Article Gist
Russia's State Statistics Committee says growth slowed in the second quarter of 2013 to 1.2%, declining from 1.6% in the first 3 months. Inflation is at 6.4% for August, according to the Economy Ministry. The Russian central bank has resisted lowering rates because of the inflation target of 6%. The Putin adminstration is seeking 4-5% growth, after an average annual growth rate of 7.2% from 2000-2009, during the period of high growth in Putin's first term as president and second term as prime minister. There is a slowdown in foreign investment in the Russian economy, as investors in Europe and the U.S. shift away from emerging markets in 2013. In addition to this commodity prices are declining.

LyrArc Article Gist
White provides critical insights to understand Ukraine's situation caught up between Germany and the EU on one side and Russia with its aspirations under Putin to bring together former Soviet bloc states. Russia is a critical energy provider for Ukraine and trade relations. The eastern part of Ukraine around Donetsk has favorable opinion about Russia. The western part of Ukraine looks for closer ties to the EU and favors joining the European Union. It was president Yakunovych's reversal of course in turning down an agreement for closer ties to the EU that led to the current crisis and street protests. Putin offered Ukraine $15 billion in loans to sign a trade and economic agreement with Russia. The language used by Russian prime minister Medvedev that Ukraine should not become "like a doormat that people wipe their feet on," shows the Putin administration's views. This was only a day before Ukraine's parliament voted to set a date for new elections, freed former prime minister Tymoshenko and began talks for opposition leaders to be part of a transitional government....