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Wall Street Journal Original article ›
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France showed zero GDP growth in the second quarter of 2012 compared to the first quarter, according to the national statistics office Insee. French president Hollande will have to raise 33 billion euros in spending cuts or higher taxes to reach the target for the budget deficit of 3% of GDPin 2013, according to a July report of Cour des Comptes, a body that audits public institutions. This will be harder now that the slowdown globally is leading to expectations of slower growth than the 1% growth forecast used in the audit. French president Hollande has so far received good marks from analysts and financial markets. French borrowing costs have reached new lows especially in short term maturity bonds where bondholders are lending money at zero interest rates, partly because of the flight to safety from Italian and Spanish bonds.
Wall Street Journal Original article ›
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Kessler says the assumption that pension systems such as Calpers (California Public Employees Retirement System), can make returns of 7.5% is fantasy considering that U.S. Treasury bonds are yielding 1.74%. Calpers reduced its expected rate of return on its portfolio to 7.5% fom 7.75% in June 2012. Public pension funds in Illinois use 8.18% for expected returns. U.S. public companies with defined benefit pension plan assets of $1.3 trillion use an expected rate of return of 7.5%, even though these assets have return of 5.6% since 2000. Kessler's estimate for expected rate of return is about 3%- fixed income yielding negative real rates of return and pulling returns down. For equities he estimates return at the total of inflation component at +2%, productivity component at +2%, and multiple expansion at -1% because interest rates are at zero.
Washington Post Original article ›
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Bernanke defended the Fed's QE II decision to buy $600 billion in Treasury bonds, at a central bank conference in Frankfurt. He said "the US risks millions of people being unemployed or underemployed for years and as a society, we should find such an outcome unacceptable." Rebutting the Germ, Chinese and Brazilian criticism, he said the policy would maintain a strong dollar over the long run. Senator Shelby told reporters, Bernanke estimates creating 700,000 to 1 million jobs over the next 2 years. Philadelphia Fed President Charles Posner said that he was very concerned about unemployment, but was "worried that monetary policy isn't the right set of tools at this juncture."
Wall Street Journal Original article ›
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Zhu Changhong plays a key role in investing China's $3.5 trillion dollars in foreign reserves. He is part of the management at China's State Administration of Foreign Exchange or SAFE, a division of the central bank. He maintains a low profile, yet he has played a critical role in shifting investment into Japanese and U.S. equities and bonds issued by the European Financial Stability Fund, reducing the risk exposure to U.S. Treasury's as the U.S. Federal Reserve changes monetary policy. From 45% of China's foreign reserves invested in U.S. government bonds, or $1.11 trillion, in June 2010, SAFE under Zhu's guidance reduced the allocation to 35%, or $1.14 trillon, in June 2012, according to a Wall Street Journal analysis. He has an interesting background. Coming from Anhui province, he studied physics at the University of Chicago, then shifted to life as a trader in financial markets at Allianz's PIMCO investment firm. After spending 20 years in the U.S., Zhu returned in 2009 as chief investment officer of SAFE. He was drawn back to China by another expatriate Yi Gang, a SAFE director who was an economics professor at Indiana University- Purdue University, Indianapolis....
NYTimes.com Original article ›
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Unbelievable as it may sound David Sanger and Katie Rogers show in this report in the NYT that US China relations are being put on a stable level by Biden and Xi Jinping. The visit to San Francisco is being carefully planned to the last detail to make certain that Xi sees the right things about America and the trip goes well. The slowing economy in China, the rising youth unemployment, have changed th dynamic to the point where Xi will be meeting American industry leaders to attract and retain American investment. WSJ reports $110 billion withdrawn from bond markets in China. EU and AMerican companies withdrawing capital from China and putting some of it into investment in the US called reshoring that Biden supports.

Economist Original article ›
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What changed asks the Economist between the summer when the stimulus was petering out and analysts sniffed deflation for 2011, and today with the euphoria for stock markets and estimates of 4% growth for 2011? Much of the reason for the change is a second round of quantitiative easing for $600 billon announced by the Fed- buying bonds with newly created money to push down rates and stimulate lending. And the December 2010 compromise for across the board extension of the Bush tax cuts. But even though this improves the prospects for 2011, the situation after that is still in the medium term as treacherous as ever, even more so, says the Economist. High interest rates and shaky business confidence can be fixed with strong stimulus, but households and banks have to work off the excessive debt taken on in the last decade. And this deveraging has years to go. So expect more difficult patches where investor euphoria quickly turns to gloom. One other aspect of the current situation is worrisome. The bipartisan deal for the Bush tax cuts was not real bipartisanship, as each side agreed to the others huge giveaways. Real bipartisanship must mean more painful decisions in spending and taxes. The US government's failure to sort out its finances will continue to cast a shadow over the future of the economy....
Wall Street Journal Original article ›
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GE's share price falls below $10. It has dropped 77% in 1 year from the 52 week high of $38.52 a share. Last time it hit this level was April 17, 1995. And its GE Capital unit faces problems. For years it generated half of GE's profits, now it had to sell its commercial paper to the government when markets dried up last fall. It has had to use a government bond guarantee program for bond issuance in recent months, even though it was at one time one of the largest corporate bond issuers. It has been unable to sell its $30 billion private label credit card operations and it appliances and light bulb units, as there are no buyers. As the stock drops GE has to consider cutting the dividend of $1.24 per share, to keep more cash to navigate this crisis. GE's Immelt continues to have his managers focus on the operations, and its business reviews that were conducted weekly are now conducted daily, and the monthly reviews are conducted weekly. But being proactive hasn't helped in this environment. ....
Wall Street Journal Original article ›
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Questions raised whether the $125 billion in EU aid could stigmatize Spain's sovereign debt considering that Spain's banks and domestic sector was the prominent buyer of government bonds. If this were to happen the $125 billion would be insufficient and more funds would be needed. It would also bring up questions about Italy's sovereign debt and its banks. This suggests the crisis of confidence may abate for awhile but will continue.
YouTube Original article ›
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 Robert Costa CBS: Are you worried about the Senate majority? It's a narrow majority for you right now. What's your candid assessment about the Senate majority and Democratic chances? Chuck Schumer, US Senate Majority Leader:  My candid assessment is we're going to not only win the Senate, but we have a good chance to pick up a seat or two. Our candidates, our senators, are running on their records of accomplishment. And that's why they're running ahead of even the national ticket. Because when they show all the good stuff we're bringing to their states, through the infrastructure bill, through the Chips and Science Bill, was so many good new manufacturing jobs, through bringing broadband to rural areas for the first time, where rural areas desperately needed. You know, Franklin Roosevelt said in the 1930s, electricity was a necessity and brought it to them. We're doing the same thing with broad bands, which in the 21st century is a necessity-- ...
United States Department of State Original article ›
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Marco Rubio speaks for the US with profound convictions and long experience in the Florida legislature and the US Senate, and as akey member of the DJT administration. In his speech in Munich at the MSC he recalls his grandparents being from Piedmeont Sardinia in Italy and from Sevilla in Spain. He talks proudly of his Spanish and Italian heritage, of America founded by European settlers. For Europe this is a speech that shows America is profoundly part of Western Civilization that started in Europe. Here are some parts of the speech and Rubio's call for America and Europe to respond strongly to the mistakes in migration and deindustrialization that have hurt the people of Europe and America, with deeply felt negative consequences. "That infamous wall that had cleaved this nation into two came down, and with it an evil empire, and the East and West became one again.  But the euphoria of this triumph led us to a dangerous delusion:  that we had entered, quote, “the end of history;” that every nation would now be a liberal democracy; that the ties formed by trade and by commerce alone would now replace nationhood; that the rules-based global order – an overused term – would now replace the national interest; and that we would now live in a world without borders where everyone became a citizen of the world.  This was a foolish idea that ignored both human nature and it ignored the lessons of over 5,000 years of recorded human history.  And it has cost us dearly.  In this delusion, we embraced a dogmatic vision of free and unfettered trade, even as some nations protected their economies and subsidized their companies to systematically undercut ours – shuttering our plants, resulting in large parts of our societies being deindustrialized, shipping millions of working and middle-class jobs overseas, and handing control of our critical supply chains to both adversaries and rivals.  We increasingly outsourced our sovereignty to international institutions while many nations invested in massive welfare states at the cost of maintaining the ability to defend themselves.  This, even as other countries have invested in the most rapid military buildup in all of human history and have not hesitated to use hard power to pursue their own interests.  To appease a climate cult, we have imposed energy policies on ourselves that are impoverishing our people, even as our competitors exploit oil and coal and natural gas and anything else – not just to power their economies, but to use as leverage against our own.  And in a pursuit of a world without borders, we opened our doors to an unprecedented wave of mass migration that threatens the cohesion of our societies, the continuity of our culture, and the future of our people.  We made these mistakes together, and now, together, we owe it to our people to face those facts and to move forward, to rebuild.  Under President Trump, the United States of America will once again take on the task of renewal and restoration, driven by a vision of a future as proud, as sovereign, and as vital as our civilization’s past.  And while we are prepared, if necessary, to do this alone, it is our preference and it is our hope to do this together with you, our friends here in Europe.  For the United States and Europe, we belong together.  America was founded 250 years ago, but the roots began here on this continent long before.  The man who settled and built the nation of my birth arrived on our shores carrying the memories and the traditions and the Christian faith of their ancestors as a sacred inheritance, an unbreakable link between the old world and the new.  We are part of one civilization – Western civilization.  We are bound to one another by the deepest bonds that nations could share, forged by centuries of shared history, Christian faith, culture, heritage, language, ancestry, and the sacrifices our forefathers made together for the common civilization to which we have fallen heir. And so this is why we Americans may sometimes come off as a little direct and urgent in our counsel.  This is why President Trump demands seriousness and reciprocity from our friends here in Europe.  The reason why, my friends, is because we care deeply.  We care deeply about your future and ours.  And if at times we disagree, our disagreements come from our profound sense of concern about a Europe with which we are connected – not just economically, not just militarily.  We are connected spiritually and we are connected culturally.  We want Europe to be strong.  We believe that Europe must survive, because the two great wars of the last century serve for us as history’s constant reminder that ultimately, our destiny is and will always be intertwined with yours, because we know – (applause) – because we know that the fate of Europe will never be irrelevant to our own.  National security, which this conference is largely about, is not merely series of technical questions – how much we spend on defense or where, how we deploy it, these are important questions.  They are.  But they are not the fundamental one.  The fundamental question we must answer at the outset is what exactly are we defending, because armies do not fight for abstractions.  Armies fight for a people; armies fight for a nation.  Armies fight for a way of life.  And that is what we are defending: a great civilization that has every reason to be proud of its history, confident of its future, and aims to always be the master of its own economic and political destiny. It was here in Europe where the ideas that planted the seeds of liberty that changed the world were born.  It was here in Europe where the world – which gave the world the rule of law, the universities, and the scientific revolution.  It was this continent that produced the genius of Mozart and Beethoven, of Dante and Shakespeare, of Michelangelo and Da Vinci, of the Beatles and the Rolling Stones.  And this is the place where the vaulted ceilings of the Sistine Chapel and the towering spires of the great cathedral in Cologne, they testify not just to the greatness of our past or to a faith in God that inspired these marvels.  They foreshadow the wonders that await us in our future.  But only if we are unapologetic in our heritage and proud of this common inheritance can we together begin the work of envisioning and shaping our economic and our political future. Deindustrialization was not inevitable.  It was a conscious policy choice, a decades-long economic undertaking that stripped our nations of their wealth, of their productive capacity, and of their independence.  And the loss of our supply chain sovereignty was not a function of a prosperous and healthy system of global trade.  It was foolish.  It was a foolish but voluntary transformation of our economy that left us dependent on others for our needs and dangerously vulnerable to crisis. Mass migration is not, was not, isn’t some fringe concern of little consequence.  It was and continues to be a crisis which is transforming and destabilizing societies all across the West.  Together we can reindustrialize our economies and rebuild our capacity to defend our people.  But the work of this new alliance should not be focused just on military cooperation and reclaiming the industries of the past.  It should also be focused on, together, advancing our mutual interests and new frontiers, unshackling our ingenuity, our creativity, and the dynamic spirit to build a new Western century.  Commercial space travel and cutting-edge artificial intelligence; industrial automation and flex manufacturing; creating a Western supply chain for critical minerals not vulnerable to extortion from other powers; and a unified effort to compete for market share in the economies of the Global South.  Together we can not only take back control of our own industries and supply chains – we can prosper in the areas that will define the 21st century." ...
Wall Street Journal Original article ›
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France's president Hollande and Italy's prime minister Monti support the issuing of some form of Eurobonds, and Germany does not rule this out, after the G-8 summit in Camp David. Germany wants to see tighter budget coordination and other steps before such a step. Italian premier Monti says a path that could lead to euro bonds may be mapped out in future meetings.
Washington Post Original article ›
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Pearlstein points to the need for the structural changes in the U.S., Europe and China to address the serious imbalances that are at the root of the problem. This process will be painful and mean a short term drag on the economy even if the right actions are taken. The process of unwinding the imbalances will take time. Lower growth in China will be good for the bubble in real estate markets and the reduction in the trade surplus, even though this will reduce imports of European and U.S. machinery. Higher savings in the U.S. and reduction of consumer debt will slow retail sales but this is healthy for longer term growth. The same is true for savings in deficit reduction that will result in more layoffs at the local level. The government needs to have similiar action take place at the banks to end their "extend and pretend" practices and finally write off bad loans in residential and commercial real estate. There is no easy way out, no solutions that can be made without a sharing of the pain. Policy makers around the world have tried to look for painless solutions for years and this may be the end of the road. There is some action that the governments and central banks can take. Pearlstein suggests that the European Central Bank buy up some of the sovereign bonds being dumped on the market even if it means printing money. The Fed, the Bank of Japan and the central bank of China can also swap some of the Treasuries they own for European sovereign bonds. This would give time for the EU leaders to give the European Financial Stability Facility the resources and powers to replace the sovereign bonds with more reliable European bonds. The Fed can take this opportunity to sell some of its huge pile of Treasury bills into the market so that it has more room for action in future years. The U.S. government can move up the spending for infrastructure in years 8, 9, and 10 to the next 2-3 years to give some support to the economy as these changes take place. The spending decisions should be left to an independent Infrastructure Bank. See the related article by Krauthammer in the Washington Post, August 5, 2011, which provides a companion policy prescription for U.S. deficit reduction based on the work done by the Bowles-Simpson Commission and by preserving efficiency and fairness....
WSJ Original article ›
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Inflation is receding as an issue in the 2024 elections as the CPI index dropped below 3% in July as reported by the Labor Department. It was 2.9% lowest since 2021. Greg Ip says when Trump is saying bacon costs 5 times more now he needs to find another supermarket. That is the joke as Trump is really getting ripped off. Ip says bacon prices are up 18% since 2020 when Biden took office. Trump says at rallies grocery prices are up 70%, Ip says fact correction -up 21% since January 2021 not 70%. Trump says gas prices are $5.00 a gallon. Fact correction- gas prices are $3.75 a gallon and falling, says Ip. Trump wildly exaggerates. Trump says he will cut energy and electricity prices by 50% in 12-18 months. His answer "Drill Baby Drill." Experts cited by Greg Ip say even if new offshore and onshore leases are given, increase in supply is marginal and years away. Gas prices are determined by the world price determined by OPEC and Russia, says Ip.  Trump will increase inflation says this report because of tariffs he plans of 60% on imports from China and 10% from other places. That would increase inflation by 1.4 to 1.7% say analysts. Greg Ip of WSJ offers more clues. Inflation linked bonds see inflation dropping to 2.2% in 2025 instead of 2.6% predicted earlier. Jerome Powell at the US central bank the Fed and president Biden hav done their job well and are not letting up, continue to work on it diligently every day. ...
Wall Street Journal Original article ›
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Andy Kessler says this is sucker's rally that took Citi from $1 share to $4 a share, and helped financial stocks. He says its not only ajobless recovery but also a recovery wothout profits. He gives four reasons. Armageddon is off the table but the problems remain of toxic assets and undercapitalized banks no matter what the stress test are saying (more negotiated Ok's than tests), zero yields with interest on savings at 0.2%, Bernanke's printing press with the Fed going all out to get money to the economy fast announcement of inention to purchase $300 billion of longterm bonds, and $750 billion of mortgage backed securities. He says he is not disagreeing with the Fed's policies considering the crisis, but he says he knows a sucker's rally when he sees one.
Wall Street Journal Original article ›
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Kazuo Hirai becomes the new CEO of Sony, succeeding Howard Stringer. Hirai faces some tough decisions at Sony, as the company's position as a pioneer in electronics has been eroded by Apple, and sales of product hardware have been eroded by Samsung Electronics. Hirai says his strategic goal is to get the 168,000 employees of Sony to place getting the user experience right first before anything else. And that simply being a great producer of hardware products isn't enough for Sony. Hirai's experience is in turning around the Playstation videogaming business. To this he brought an unconventional style. He was educated in the U.S. and Canada as the son of an expatriate Japanese banker, and in Japan he went to the American School where he founded its Audiovisual Club. His first job at CBS/Sony Inc. in Japan was as a translator for bands such as the Beastie Boys and Journey during the visits of these bands to Japan.
Wall Street Journal Original article ›
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A detailed account of how it happened and the hard work of Secretary Paulson from meetings at 7am to 11pm, with one banker saying it was harder than prison where you get 3 full meals a day. While Treasury reviewed its options, it asked Morgan Stanley bankers and Fed officials to go over the books at Fannie and Freddie. Treasury also handled calls from foreign cenral banks holding Fannie and Freddie bonds. The long meetings at Treasury, those involved, and the final meeting with the CEO's of the 2 companies where Paulson told them "Accept, or it will happen," they could go willingly or FHFA would declare them undercapitalized and take them over involuntarily.

The Bernanke Legacy

Wall Street Journal Original article ›
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This WSJ editorial gives a different grade to Ben Bernanke than a recent article by economist Austin Goolsbee. It says Bernanke gets low marks for keeping interest rates low during 2003-2004 to fight the effects of the dot-com bubble collapse as advocated by Paul Krugman. He also gets low marks for not detecting the 2008 mortgage collapse early. Once the crisis started Bernanke gets high marks for taking action in 2008-2009. His bond buying efforts under QE policies pursued by the Fed need more time to evaluate says WSJ and it is too early to declare it a success as Goolsbee and others have done. How successful Janet Yellen is in unwinding the bond buying purchases will determine if this was good policy. If this ends up in another bubble and aftereffects or in inflation, the Bernanke legacy will be seen in a different light.
Wall Street Journal Original article ›
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Spain's borrowing costs increase reaching a high of 7.180% on yields for 10 year Spanish government bonds. There is considerable uncertainty about the bad loans in Spain's banking system and fears that the bad loans could be much larger than previously expected. Consultants hired by the Spanish government of prime minister Mariano Rajoy are expected to report on their findings this week about the extent of bad loans.
Wall Street Journal Original article ›
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Ulrich Volz of the German Development Institute says the $250 billion the IMF has- counting the $100 billion Japan has contributed- may not be enough to prevent some countries in Eastern Europe and Asia or Latin America from defaulting. Especially because a lot of debt is coming due and has to be renewed. There may be some sovereign country defaults. Even China and India have a lot of debt coming due. India and China have external debt payments of $260 billion and $2.4 trillion respectively this year. According to ING Wholesale Banking emerging market governments and companies have to repay some $6.8 trillion of debt, bonds, loans and interest payments and trade finance, and this excludes any debt taken on for stimulus. Russia has $600 billion to renew this year. Latin American governments according to Harvard economist Hausmann need to rollover $250 billion in debt. The US and developed countries are soaking up a lot of funds, with the US eexpected to issue $2 trillion in government bonds, and the big developed countries placing another $1 trillion. So there will be severe competition for limited capital. Mr Volz suggests a Global Support Fund to which the developed countries would contribute to help emerging market countries....
DW.COM Original article ›
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Hansi Flick joined Bayern Munich as an interim manager in November 2019. In less than one year he has transformed the German team. Routing Barcelona 8-2 in the semifinals of the Champions League. Taking the team to wins in the Bundesliga and the Champions League. In the manner of Zidane he has a strong bond with the players and trusts each player to develop his own individual style of play, avoided depending on stars who cost a fortune saving the club much money, and giving opportunity to a new generation of talent. He trusted Kimmich, Alfonso Davies, and put Kingsley Coman in for the finals with PSG after his great performance in the Barcelona game. No star antics or displays as veterans Neuer and Muller worked gracefully alongside the younger player for their individual roles fitting into the larger scheme of play. Some of the acclaim puts Flick now ahead of Pep Guardiola and in league with Jurgen Klopp at Liverpool, Zidane at Real Madrid. Flick and Zidane have something in common. ...
WSJ Original article ›
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The new Samsung Fod smartphone is $500 costlier than the priciest Apple iPhone. It provides a tablet sized phone with glass display that bends in half, so that it can be closed as a wallet and fit in the pocket. It has 6 cameras, can run 3 apps simultaneously and measures 7.2 inches diagonally when open.

In an effort to have a wider lineup at different prices there will be 4 versions of the Galaxy S10, similar to a strategy of Apple to go to a wider lineup.

Smartphone sales have declined for five quarters, including  4.9% decline in the last quarter of 2018, according to IDC. The new versions are an effort to stop the decline.

YouTube Original article ›
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The PM of India is interviewed by Smitha Prakash of ANI before the April 2024 federal elections.  PM Modi describes his effort to bring transparency and remove the use of "black money" in elections and politics. He sees this use of "black money" as a constant danger to India's democratic process and to the development of the country. Electoral bonds was one idea he tried to do this, says Modi. About Enforcement Directorate on illicit activities PM Modi says it was the opposition Congress party that made the laws to prevent corruption of the democratic process yet never enforced the laws, in large part merely left them on the books. About the fears surrounding his party and the PM coming in for a third successive term Modi says there is no need to fear as he has devoted his life to the development aspirations of the young people of the country regardless of color, caste religion or region. He said the striking difference between him and the ranks of opposition parties in Maharashtra, Bihar, UP, Tamilnadu and West Bengal was the "parivar vadi" or dynastic spirit of the leaders who followed age old practices of promoting family members to lead, such being the case in the INC after Nehru for several generations, depriving the country of better leaders and stifling democratic processes. He did not say this yet Indians of all ages remember the leadership of Lal Bahadur Shastri who succeeded Nehru in 1964, his championing of farmers with the slogan Jai Jawan, Jai Kisan. Like JFK in the US his life was cut short  before he could put his mark on the period after 1964. Shastri was Parliamentary Secretary in the first Indian government in 1946 and served in every capacity for India at the state level in Uttar Pradesh India's heartland around the Ganges river, and at the federal level till 1966. During this interview PM Modi was asked about Tamilnadu and southern states, a north-south divide, Modi does not see India in "tukde tukde," piece and piece-even as Chief Minister of Gujarat he said he aspired to progress of India and Gujarat's progress and modernization as part of this Republic India.  ...
WSJ Original article ›
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Was president Biden right to get the Fed, the FDIC and Treasury to cover the uninsured deposits in Silicon Valley Bank. Is it a good use of taxpayer money? $25 billion was provided by the Treasury to the Fed to stabilize other medium sized banks. The answer from the administration is that it was necessary to protect working families from any effects on the overall economy of the ripple effect on medium sized banks that were left unregulated by former president Trump's 2018 roll back of regulation on banks with less than 250 billion in assets.The Office of the Budget has shown that the government recovered all except $31 billion from the much larger bailout of 2008. Paul Krugman in NYT says the assets of SVB are invested in long term US Treasury securities which have value and should cover most of the cost of insuring depositors. Moral hazard is covered by the management at SVB and Signature losing their jobs and by the losses in stock value and bonds which are left unprotected as a cautionary signal to investors. A much larger impact is hidden in the hearts and minds of Silicon Valley who will be expected to reflect on the nature of their self serving deal where they oppose regulation of tech monopolies and of regulatory action except where it serves their  own interests, and see a laissez faire system that works for them but not for workers and families across communities in states across America. A situation made worse by the loss of America's manufacturing base on which issue Silicon Valley neither reflected or acted. ...
Wall Street Journal Original article ›
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James Glassman, has published a new book, "Safety Net." In the book he makes an admission that he was wrong in his theory and understanding of the stock market described in his earlier book, "Dow 36,000," published in 1999. That book called for stocks to triple in value in 5 years. Glassman wrote then, at the height of the tech boom, that stocks could immediately double, triple or even quadruple as was happening at that time for tech stocks going public, and they would still not be too expensive. Part of the arguments rely on a definition of risk. Glassman said in his earlier book that stocks and bonds are equally risky in the long run, because stocks had never lost money over the long term and over long periods of time their returns were constant. But Glassman is using a technical definition of risk as how much returns can deviate from the average. What investors face in the real world is a common sense definition of risk, which is- what are the chances you will lose money? This point says Jason Zweig, is clearly stated in Howard Marks coming book, "The Most Important Thing." And what about the point about stocks never losing money, the central point in Glassman's thesis? Here research from Dimson, Marsh and Staunton of London Business School is useful. This research shows that in France from 1912 through 1977, stocks lost money after inflation. The upshot of this is to emphasize the need for looking at risks as real in the real world, where things have changed to the point where the current stock market rally is attributed by the Fed chairman to vigorous efforts to fight a downturn in the economy. For investors these risks are not going away with a sudden surge in stock prices....
NYTimes.com Original article ›
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On my bookshelf is NY financier Felix Rohatyn's 2009 book, Bold Endeavors, citing the bold investments America has made in the past from Louisiana Purchase, Erie Canal, Transcontinental Railroad, Land Grant Colleges, Homestead Act, Panama Canal, Rural Electrification, Interstate Highway System, and how this needs to happen once again. NYT lacks this vision. In this Op-Ed it  leaves the field open after comparing Mamdani to De Blasio's failure to run NYC. NYT Editorial Board says Mayor Bloomberg was an effective manager and ran the city better than other mayors, it describes the accomplishments of Andrew Cuomo but does not give Cuomo second chances to use his experience to serve New York City, after Michael Bloomberg comes out in favor of Cuomo. This is  NYT and NYC dysfunction. It says there is so much to do in NYC to improve life in the city but refuses to make the tough decisions needed to make things happen, turning into someone who decides who gets second chances to serve the city and the country.  The Washington Post was clear in warning about the danger of a "free everything" Mayor as this has never worked and fiscal chaos happened in NYC in the 1970's, a NYC near bankruptcy in 1975 which Rohatyn tackled as head of NY's Municipal Assistance Corporation and $10 billon in bonds backed by New York state. NYT and NYC residents have short memories. Most have forgotten Rohatyn and his vision in Bold Endeavors, or were not part of the American fabric of the 20th century, which again points to the importance of history, civics and education. ...

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