LyrArc Article Gist
Trump wins 32% of the vote in the South Carolina primary, to 22% for Cruz, 22% for Rubio, with Bush, Kasich and Carson winning over 7% each. Jeb Bush ended his campaign after the disastrous result in South Carolina. Trump showed support among independents and evangelical Christians. Undecided voters at the last minute voted for Rubio and Cruz.

LyrArc Article Gist
The Gulf economies are not managing their wealth that much better this time. There is more money in the hands of private companies compared to the last boom but the investments in Saudi Arabia to create 6 or 7 cities in the desert and the huge construction boom pose questions about what is the best way to allocate capital for countries like Saudi Arabia, which have larger population than some Abu Dhabi or Dubai for instance. Are many aluminium plants and other similiar investments and building cities in the desert the best way to allocate capital resources to provide for the needs of a growing population in Saudi Arabia, especially as high prices of oil may not last more than a couple of years if conservation and energy efficiency really take hold and there is a global softening in growth after the rapid pace of the last decade? Interestingly some of the wealth that is being spread through imported labor to neighboring countries is not doing enough because of the Gulf countries exchange rate with the US dollar and the link to US monetary policies which create looser monetary policy just when inflation is picking up. With higher inflation and the fixed exchange rates of Gulf countries the inflation eats into the sm all earnings of foreign labor from South Asian countries and elewhere and money repatriated home brings less rupees or home currencies. In addition to all the waste and these distortions in the way wealth is shared with neighboring countries who send in labor, there is also the way this creates distortions in global finance. Mentioned here is the example of how in the last boom in petro economies of the Gulf the recycled petrodollars were loaned out to niave latin american borrowers whose countries borrowed more capital than they could possibly absorb or afford and ended up with a lost decade of growth when it became impossible to support so much overseas debt. The current boom for oil producing countries is already being cited as the cause of the huge global liquidity, that made for the availbility of cheap capital and kept interest rates too low for too long, leading to too much risk taking and taking on off too much debt by homeowners and companies in the USA. ...

LyrArc Article Gist
The increased oil supply in the Middle East will come largely from Saudi Arabia and Iraq by 2015. By 2020 the increased oil supply from Iraq will surpass increased Saudi production, when compared with 2009, according to the International Energy Agency. Iraqi production is currrently 2.7 million barrels a day. This jumps significantly in coming years. JBC Energy expects Iraqi oil output to increase to about 8 million barrels a day by 2020. This is a result of modernization and participation of foreign oil companies in the Iraqi oil industry. Comparitively Libyan output shows only a small increase.

LyrArc Article Gist
Obama makes an effort to reach out to Turkey and the Muslim world. He said the U.S. would seek broader engagement based on mutual respect and mutual interest. And added "the US has bee enriched by Muslim-Americans. Many other Americans have Muslims in their family, or have lived in a Muslim-majority country. I know, because I am one of them." Obama spent part of his childhood in Indonesia, and had a step-parent from Indonesia.

LyrArc Article Gist
Obama's town hall meeting with Turkish students. In answering aquestion on world peace he said something significant. "It will require young people never to stereotype, assume the worse about other people,. Learning to stand in someone else's shoes to see through their eyes, that's how peace begins, and its upto you to make that happen."

LyrArc Article Gist
This report in the WSJ points to Democrats having won consistently 18 states plus District of Columbia adding upto 242 Electoral College votes in every election since 1992. Democrats need 28 more to cross the needed 270 votes. Republicans consistently having 13 states with 102 electoral College votes. Demographic changes in recent years have shifted to where Hillary Clinton may not need to devote resources to Colorado and Virginia because of a more favorable position there.  Carrying Pennsylvania with these 2 states would put Clinton over the 270 required. Vice Presidential candidate for Clinton, Senator Keane is from Virginia and is popular in the state.  Pennsylvania has a long history favoring Democrats. North Carolina has also seen demographic changes favoring Democrats. The Clinton campaign is focussing ads on these states as well as the swing states of Nevada, Iowa and New Hampshire, as well as Georgia, Arizona and Utah which are becoming competitive for Democrats. By keeping up the effort in Georgia, Arizona and Utah, Clinton hopes to make Trump divert resources there. Other two swing states are Ohio and Florida, but this WSJ report says Clinton has to win only one of the four swing states of Pennsylvania, Ohio, Florida, and North Carolina to go over 270 and Trump needs all four. Of the 20 media markets Clinton or her super PACs have focussed their ads on 16 are in these 4 states. The Clinton campaign is looking at several alternative routes to 270 Electoral College votes, which gives it more flexibility to plan the campaign.  ...

LyrArc Article Gist
Sandhya Sharma of The Economic Times puts a spotlight on the dominant role of China in global shipping by 2005. In 1980 China had a tiny role in global shipping, with bicycles a dominant form of transportation in Beijing. By 2019 this role had expanded to dominant position in all the largest modern technology container ports with global shipping volume having more than doubled since 2005. Much of this was done by working with major providers of container port technology such as Maersk of Denmark and other European shipping companies, with imported technology playing a critical part. India is starting from basics in its effort to develop its shipping in the Indian Ocean region with its large coastline facing the Suez Canal and the eastern coastline facing Malaysia, Indonesia and Australia. This was evident during the recent "Atman Nirbhar" global shipping meeting in Vizag- the Maritime India Summit 2021. The goal is to make the next decade one of rapid development of the maritime sector to secure India's position in global shipping particularly in the Indian Ocean region. Collaboration with major European technology providers will play a key role in developing container ports to the levels required for India's future role in global shipping. Sharma discusses the visit of premier Boris Johnson in April 2021 to India to forge strong trade ties.  The Indian prime minister held virtual meetings with premiers of Sweden and the Netherlands, two major maritime nations in Northern Europe for stronger trade and technology ties. These ties are part of the broader effort by the US, UK, and European Union countries to forge strong trade and technology ties with India now that it is clear to them that new supply chain will be needed over the next decade as China disengages from that level of its trade ties with Europe, US and India. New global supply chain means new global shipping container ports and global shipping links of India, Vietnam, Malaysia, Indonesia, with the US and Europe. Looking at what happened between sometime in 1995 and 2005, and in 2005 to 2009 when the global financial crisis hit, when China went from a miniscule level of world trade to predominance. And the years of the Obama administration 2008-2016 when this simply continued without any understanding of its implications for both sides, to levels of China's predominance in world shipping that can only be considered as unbelievable. Growing at over 12% through continued use of  imported technology from Europe and the US. Looking back at what happened one sees that this made China over dependent, its economy too intertwined with Europe and the US. This also made the US and Europe over dependent on China in its supply chain. It took the pandemic and the one term Trump administration, the crisis in Hong Kong, the situation in Ladakh and India's norther border, the South China seas and Vietnam,  for both sides to realize this was not in the interest of any of the countries involved.   ...

LyrArc Article Gist
Li Keqiang, China's new premier, is a member of the "Class of 77," who gained entry to Peking University when university entrance exams were reinstated after Mao's death. This is a period of great curiosity in China about the outside world. Li described it this way in 2008: "In this period knowledge was expanding with the speed of an explosion. I came here not just for knowledge, but to mold a kind of temperament, to master a kind of academic discipline." This he did by working extremely hard trying to master the English language and Western legal theory. He is now the only leader in China who can speak fluent English and is familiar with western concepts of law. For this he owes much to one of his professors, Gong Xiangrui, who studied at the London School of Economics in the 1930's and supported a multiparty system for China. Li was selected as one of the students to translate "The Due Process of Law" by Lord Denning, a British jurist. He spent the next 15 years in the Communist party's Youth League and moved up through the ranks. Many of the "Class of 77' " are still close friends and in academic positions in Singapore, Hong Kong and other universities. He understands the weaknesses in China's legal system because many of his close friends are lawyers, judges and law professors. Evidence of his intellectual openness, is his return to Peking University for a masters degree in economics years later, his thesis on urbanization, and his sponsorship through the Development Reform Commission think tank and the World Bank's Zoellick, of the report published in 2012, "China 2030." That report called for China to change course and reverse the role of state owned firms in the economy, giving consumers a bigger role. Like many of China's leaders this openness also meant during the period of turmoil of the Mao period and the decades following this, of a reticence to talk about political change that came over the entire country, in the words of the 2012 Chinese Nobel Prize Laureate's name, Mo Yan, a kind of "Don't Speak." Taking any kind of political position was simply too risky. The presence of 4 older Politburo members in their mid-60's who are close allies of former president Jiang Zemin and likely to preserve the status quo, also suggests a cautious approach in making changes. One key difference between Jinping- Keqiang from the Jintao-Wen Biao leadership is that Jinping has experience in provincial leadership positions in Hebei, and Keqiang was provincial leader in Henan, China's most populous province, as well as leader in industrial Liaoning province. By odd contrast Hu Jintao was a leader in the remote Tibet region and Wen Biao was a geologist in the northeast for many years. This gives the new leadership team a first hand knowledge of conditions in populous provinces, and the connections with the World Bank's Zoellick a kind of window to the outside that no other leader has had. Jiang Zemin, a former mayor of Shanghai, China' most westernized city in the 1930's and today, was himself a experimenter in his own right when he initiated the changes tht gave China entry into the World Trade Organization. His support of Xi Jinping gives Xi the needed backing for making change happen when the time comes....

LyrArc Article Gist
Pope Francis meets Bosnia's three presidents in a Council, with each president rotating in office every 8 months. He also addresses a crowd of 65,000 in Sarajevo. Pope Francis told the crowd: " In a world unfortunately rent by conflicts, this land can become a message, attesting that it is possible to live together side by side." A council of Interracial Dialogue to bring together different clerics is working well, says the Vatican's ambassador Luigi Pezzuto. At the level of politics divisions remain as political leaders still promote ethnic nationalism. But overall the Dayton Accords negotiated by Richard Holbrooke of the U.S. are working well. The economy struggles with 50% unemployment and 60% of the workers dependent on the government.

LyrArc Article Gist
Trofimov provides a much needed perspective to the situation in the Middle East in 2015. The title about redrawing borders on ethnic lines is misleading, as the essay's conclusions point to the need for various communities to find a way to live together without ethnic cleansing and intolerance in attitudes. With modernization different communities, Sunni and Shiite, already live together in the larger cities in the Middle East. Trofimov points out that the original intentions of U.S. president Woodrow Wilson were for diversity, and building modern institutions of government as the best way forward. This was not carried out by British and French rulers following struggles for independence against the colonial authorites. Following the collapse of the Ottoman Empire in 1918, Britain and France were the dominant powers, and the boundaries were drawn up for Syria, Iraq, Jordan, Palestine, Saudi Arabia and other states, under the British-French Sykes-Picot agreement of 1916. Britain and France increased the role of minority groups to maintain their control following independence struggles in Iraq and Syria, a situation which helped Alawites gain control in Syria and Sunnis in Iraq. Shiite rule in todays Iraq has not lessened tensions, and intolerance only creates tensions in the broader region. Which makes redrawing boundaries around ethnic lines in a defacto acceptance of the current situation, not the lasting road to peace in the Middle East. In Iran, Russia with Britain was involved in the partition of parts of Iran into three zones, a Russian zone including Isfahan in the north, a British zone in the south east and a neutral zone in the middle. This happened in 1907 soon after a independence movement helped write a constitution in the 1901-1907 period, showing that many foreign powers were involved in the region, not just Britain and France. The discovery of oil in 1908 by a British company created the question of how to distribute the profits, which led to 70 years of disagreement and tensions in Iran. The resulting tensions exacerbated the conflict between religious authorites and Mossadegh in the early fifties with the fear of Communism, and exacerbated the conflict between the religious authorites and the government under the Shah by 1979 with misuse of oil wealth, ending with his overthrow and the supreme authority of the Ayatollah. Oil has proved to be as divisive, and wasteful of development opportunities, in Iran as it has been in Nigeria and other oil dependent nations. Multiple issues exist in the Middle East, not just the artificial redrawing of boundaries by the French and British, which makes the defacto redrawing of boundaries along ethnic divisions, not the answer but another step with its own dangers, along the path towards peace and economic development in the region. ...

LyrArc Article Gist
The demand for ships went up so steeply that shipping rates hit the roof, and the prices of ships went up accordingly. Between the end of 2006 and July 2008 , shipyards received enough commissions, says the Economist, that this would double the world's fleet. Just as demand has collapsed and international trade has gone down, about 9000 ships are coming onstream. Now 11% of fleet capacity justs sits on the water, in the seas outside the harbors of Singapore, Hong Kong and other southeast Asian ports. A 150 tonne cape class ship that sold in 2003 for $18.5 million in the used market, when rates for charter were $15,000 a day, had risen by summer 2008, to $85 million with rates of $175,000 a day. These rates went up even more to $300,000 a day, which is 20 times what it was in 2003. And rates today are back down to $15,000 a day, where they were in 2003. This ship, cited by a broker, to give some idea of the extent of this boom and its collapse, was sold for scrap at $7 million. And South Korean shipyards are taking this into account, in their pricing and collection of payment, with 20% demanded upfront, 60% during construction, and 20% upon delivery. The backlog in shipyards is estimated by Clarkson Research, a maritime research firm, at $526 billion, even as banks are leery of lending and concerned about the value of the collateral in the event of default. Some smaller Korean shipyards are closing. Steve Mann, analyst at HSBC, says that half of the orders for delivery in 2010 will be delayed, so that there is work for 2011 and inventory or excess capacity does not pile up on the oceans. Even in this situation China, India and Vietnam continue to support the expansion of their own shipyards. This suggests additional losses for shipbuilders, shipping lines and the banks that lend to shipyards. All this also goes to show that the rush to industrialize, once it gets a firm footing- like it has in the Chinese model of increasing investment and local governments pushing infrastructure, industry and export factories with officials judged on GNP growth numbers- can exacerbate a boom-bust cycle. This is one industry, others include machinery manufacturers, commodity producers, and manufacturers of parts that go into finished products assembled in China for export. This means it would take the world economy down with it, if some external factor like the drop in export demand suddenly slows everything down. Machinery manufacturers in Germany, commodity producers in Brazil, Argentina, Chile, Australia, and manufacturers of the high tech parts in Japan and Taiwan that are shipped to China for assembly, all go down in this boom-bust cycle, in a dramatic manner. ...

LyrArc Article Gist
Exxon sells a 25% stake in the West Qurna-1 oil field near Basra, Iraq, to Sinopec. And a 10% stake to Pertamina. This field produces 510,000 barrels a day with potential for 3 million barrels a day. Exxon and Shell are heading the $50 billion project. The project is a service contract with the Iraqi government to develop the oil field. After the sale of the stake estimated at about $5 billion for a 10 year contract Exxon retains a 25% stake. Exxon is managing risk in the project after differences with the Iraqi government over its investments in the Kurdistan part of Iraq.

LyrArc Article Gist
Sofia Diego from the Southern European region of Spain and Portugal, says the idea of a multi-speed European Union as put forward by some in Brussels, including Jean-Claude Juncker, is not the answer- because at some point it makes the whole exercize of a united Europe futile with some countries choosing to ignore the very ideal of European unity. In fact she says we have come too far in that direction and it is necessary to pause and reflect what this means. France's leading presidential candidate Emmanuel Macron has called for a closer union as a better solution to eurozone financial stability with a tighter union. German public opinion and other opinion in the EU does not favor more concessions following Brexit. This opinion from a Southern European country shows how young people especially have developed a new attitude and feeling of togetherness as the European generation. Young people from all parts of Europe have a changed attitude compared to previous generation, and this is a valuable experience that needs to be nurtured with closer interaction to take the EU experiment to the next stage. ...

LyrArc Article Gist
A study of the economies of the 100 largest metropolitan areas in the U.S. by the Brookings Institution suggests that states in the South may be facing a harder time recovering from high unemployment than the northeast and midwestern states. Of the ten states with the highest unemployment six are in the West and the South, including Nevada, California, and S. Carolina. Unemployment in S. Carolina is 11.1%. A researcher at the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, says the better performance of the South in earlier years was driven by development and in-migration. This has abruptly ended. A Brookings Fellow, Howard Wial, suggests the possibility of California, Nevada, Arizona and Florida being depressed for a long time, while states in the Great Lakes region see a rebound. States and regions that are dependent on education, healthcare and energy, are doing better than others. In Pennsylvania, the Pittsburgh region with its emphasis on education and healthcare is doing better than Philadelphia. In New York, Buffalo and Rochester in the upstate region are doing better than the New York City metropolitan area. Areas around Akron and Youngstown in the rustbelt part of Ohio are recovering better than Tucson and Colorado Springs....