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German banks hold $28 billion euros or $37 billion in Greek bonds according to Barclays Capital using IMF data. This debt is now rated as junk by Standard and Poor's since last week. Just one bank, Hypo Real Estate, now owned by the German government after a bailout has $10.5 billion of Greek bonds. This gives a new twist to what is happening in Greece, with Germany involved through the support its own banks would need if Greece defaulted and these bonds become worthless. Total debt holdings of Portugal, Italy, Ireland, Greece and Spain for example at Hypo Real Estate is $52 billion. France is also heavily involved through its banks. It has $67 billion in holdings, including $9 billion held by the Bank of France, according to Barclays. According to BIS data American banks hold $16.6 billion in Greek debt. Even the healthy large Spanish banks like Santander have their problems, with Santander having $64 billion of assets in Portugal, according to analysts at Nomura in London. In Spain most of the bad debt problems are concentrated in the midsize banks, but if Portugal were to take a hit then the large banks would be affected adversely....

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Years of Tory cuts and austerity spending left the UK unprepared for the pandemic, says this editorial in The Guardian. The running down of the public sector was a policy choice says The Guardian. In the decade before Covid the Tories cut public spending as a proportion of the GDP from 46% to 39% leaving Britain exposed during the pandemic. Jeremy Hunt continues in a long line of Tory chancellors who are impervious to comprehension of the fall in incomes of ordinary households, the working nurses and teachers who turn to food banks. Hunt even talks about another 100 billion pounds of cuts over the next 2 years. And  turning Britain into a Silicon Valley, when Silicon and Tech is failing in the US, and when the US Justice Department is seeking the breakup of Big Tech with support from Republican Bill Barr. 

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This podcast in the WSJ takes up a Chinese startup Luckin Coffee that had major investors in the U.S. and China, including big banks in the U.S. and Europe.  The idea is simple- sell coffee in China to aspirational coffee drinkers following western lifestyles using mobile app. It is the story of huge investments and losses, and collapse of a NASDAQ listed company with what the WSJ investigation calls fabricated sales. Why are infrastructure and health, education products starved of capital left high and dry, while billions are poured into such investments with huge losses. All you need is this article in the WSJ of Sept 16, 2015, shown in today's articles. Showing forecasts of rapid growth of coffee consumption for an aspirational western lifestyle consumer in China, and a small mobile app investment to attract investors in a startup -if you refashion the coffee retail outlets as a tech company by selling coffee for delivery/takeout by mobile app. Luckin Coffee in China shown in the podcast in today's articles did this and attracted billions of dollars in investment from investors, including large banks and financial companies in Europe, U.S. and China, only to collapse in 2 years with losses and investigations in China and the U.S. Luckin Coffee soared after its NASDAQ stock exchange listing in 2018 only 1 year after its founding. WSJ calls it "brazen" the effort to add tech hype to a coffee company and have it listed on NASDAQ in just over a year, only to see its sales and value collapse just as quickly. $400 million in convertible bonds losing 90% of their value, the stock losing most of its value and NASDAQ delisting the stock after $311 million in fabricated sales were found as reported in the South China Morning Post. For U.S. investors the problem is that Chinese companies can list on the NASDAQ or other stock exchanges in the U.S., but U.S. investors cannot look at financial records of companies in China. Yet there are basic questions- why is it a tech company? Why are investors like big banks and other large financial investors pushing so much money into such places when there is so much that needs to be done in health and infrastructure investment, and real tech investment? 5G or 6G? Health systems? Ocean Grounds has a coffee store in Shanghai, Pacific Store has coffee retail outlets in China, and Starbucks is still in the business with retail outlets - remember none of these companies are tech companies. In 2017 Luckin Coffee started by making it look techy with a mobile app and refashioned itself as a tech company.  What is so big about a mobile app as there are hundreds of millions of apps. The rest came from making it look like Starbucks, right down to baristas, fancy coffee machines, and opening stores near Starbucks, according to the Podcast in the WSJ.The difference between Starbucks and Luckin Coffee - the price Luckin Coffee would sell for about $2 compared to about $4 for a Starbucks latte. Yet do this by pricing at closer to Starbucks and issuing promotions discounts constantly on the mobile app, that would bring the price to about $2. That is all it takes to make a tech company nowadays. No scientific research, no science and technology, no technical experience, nothing of the kind that led to the invention of the computer chip or the vaccines that are now being developed, or research activity of any sort. Banks, financial companies are willing to channel huge amounts of money into these places and lose it, as they did in We Work, and are doing at companies such as ride sharing app companies, as well as other app companies without any core technological component or value added such as infrastructure or health products. Only it is not the bank's money but the people's money and savings that are deposited at banks and channeled into investments. At the same time as investments in much needed infrastructure and health, education, services that really matter to us as a society, are neglected and starved of capital.     ...

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Risks to the economies of western Europe through the banking system and its lending to Eastern European economies are growing. The Easter European economies that are collapsing are Europe's version of the sub prime crisis in the USA. This may ricochet back to the United States as European institutional investors pull money out of the US stock market. Europan banks could suffer a further increase in nonperforming loans, and need further recapitalization from their governments, which are already hardpressed by demands for shoring up the social safey nets, stimulus spending and bank rescues. Big institutional investors in Western Europe, the banks, pension funds and insurance companies, hold large amounts of Eastern European debt, and further infusions of capital from western governments would put increasing pressure on the Euro.

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Thomas Hoenig was Governor of the Kansas City Federal Reserve Bank for 20 years. Here he talks about the dangers of "too big to fail" with Gretchen Morgenson of the New York Times. He is due to retire at the age of 65 in 2011. Hoeinig has stood for conservative safe financial practices for U.S. financial institutions throughout his 20 year old career, and cautioned against extending the government safety net for banks that engage in risky financial activities including derivatives trading. And essential element of safe financial practice and part of necessary market discipline, he has pointed consistently, is the fear that taking on risky activities or acting recklessly has a price- creditors can take out their funds if they see a banks as unsafe, and the financial institution may have to be broken up or closed. He joins Alan Meltzer in his criticism of Federal Reserve policies under first Greenspan and then Bernanke that take on the job of stimulating the economy and creating jobs through a very loose monetary policy after the collapse of a bubble. Hoenig sees the role of the Fed in such situations as a neutral player. The reason say Meltzer and Hoenig is that the Fed has not given enough thought and attention to the long term consequences of its policies. What were the consequences of the low rate policies in 2003 asks Hoenig? It promoted another bubble and the mortgage meltdown of 2008. What were the consequences of QE II asks Meltzer in an op-ed piece in the Wall Street Journal on August 11, 2011, "The Folly of Economic Short-Termism?" It has failed to revive the economy or reduce unemployment. Hoenig also points to questions of fairness and equity that arise when banks are treated differently and farmers, seniors and other groups are asked to make sacrifices....

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The American Treasury Secretary who handled the 2008 financial crisis, Henry Paulson, gives the new US financial reform legislation an incomplete grade. His main concern is that the too-big-to fail risk in the US banking system continues, and without clear rules a lot depends on the regulators. He does not see higher capital requirements doing much to ease that problem, and sees another crisis in a few years as inevitable. Former SEC chief, Harvey Pitt, gives it an F for failure or an I for Incomplete. He sees it as a boon for lawyers, because it is not clearly written and leaves so many loopholes, to a degree that is simply astounding. He says it does nothing in the way of preventing another crisis. Does nothing for transparency, nothing for monitoring and action by regulators, all factors that led to the crisis of 2008. Nouriel Roubini gives it a C+, because it does little to fix the reasons why securitization failed and caused the crisis, and in this way will keep credit creation and expansion in a weak state. He sees this financial reform bill as a failed effort that is laying the ground for the next crisis, with little action in the "too-big-to-fail" area, a huge dilution of what former Fed Chairman paul Volcker had advocated in the Volcker rule, and no real impact on the risky trading of derivatives. Bill Gross of PIMCO gives his frank assessment in no uncertain terms. A D+ for this bill. It shows how lobbyists for the banks still control Congress he says. It would have been better to let Paul Volcker take charge completely, than to have the lobbyists dilute the critical reform proposals. Simon Johnson gives it the lowest passing grade at MIT, a B. The only large change he says, is the Kanjorski Amendment, which give federal regulators the authority to breakup the large banks. But he cautions that it may require another crisis for the regulators and Congress to "get it," and do what they should be doing....

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Microsoft leaders for reasons of climate change action and aid to poor African and Latin American nations see the positives in Harris-Walz focus on investment in the future. A similar situation exists with JP Morgan Chase bank leaders. Intel and Ford Motor Company leaders see the Biden administration investment in American companies for stronger competition with Chinese or Taiwanese companies, and for climate change action by investing in EV industry technologies, in the same way. Overall cutting corporate taxes is not as big a priority for American business as government assistance and support to match the hidden subsidies Taiwan and China, South Korean governments give to their companies in Chips and EV's, other advanced technologies industries.

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HDFC Bank CEO, Aditya Puri, has succeeded with conservative practices in lending. It is now India's second biggest lender by market value, after the government owned State Bank of India. HDFC's lending to consumers has doubled since 2008 under Puri. He believes in prudent lending and keeps an autographed copy of Michael Lewis's The Big Short in his office. This has enabled Puri to avoid the losses experienced by other banks such ICICI, and with India's growing economy HDFC has profit increases of over 30% for the last decade. HDFC is adding 2 million customers a year, says Puri. The bad loan ratio is estimated to be 0.2% in the third quarter of 2011, one tenth of that at State Bank of India. India's largest mortgage lender, Housing Development Finance Corporation, is the largest shareholder with 23%. Puri says he will focus on growth in India, and will continue to avoid taking the kind of risks that would make depositor's lose sleep at night.

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Three central bankers at the Bank for International Settlements (BIS) advise caution in the exercize of easy money policies. BIS head, Jaime Caruana, former ECB head, Jean-Claude Trichet, and Bank of Japan governor, Masaaki Shirakawa, say prudent steps are needed to ensure that easy money policies give time that is wisely used by financial institutions to improve their balance sheets, and not wasted. This includes improving reserve capital levels, avoiding undue risktaking. Jaime Caruana warned that easy money policies posed the risk that firms could avoid recognizing losses and lead to a new wave of risk taking, resulting in wasting the time that was provided by the central banks to address pressing problems on the balance sheet. The BIS in Basel, Switzerland, was a prominent voice in warning of the dangers of excessive risktaking in the global financial system before the 2008 financial crisis.

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Charlie Rose talks to Nouriel Roubini about his thoughts on the next bubble and his book- "Crisis Economics." He says financial crises don't just happen out of the blue, they don't happen at random, instead they are predictable. Excessive risk taking and leverage have undesirable outcomes which are predictable as they take shape and get overblown. What happened to all the toxic assets? Banks are still carrying these assets hoping and praying that they don't need to be written down. His view coincides with that of Jeremy Grantham and other experts who see a growing danger in a prolonged period of zero interest rates which encourage risk taking. In all the developed economies of the U.S., Europe and Japan, borrowing can be done at zero interest rates. Investment banks are back to huge profits in proprietary trading using money borrowed at zero interest rates. A new bubble is developing that could burst in 2 or 3 years. The value of most risky assets has gone up by 50-80% in the last year. See Shiller's expert view on the danger from declining confidence levels and from higher uncertainty. Roubini says the Dodd bill is not enough. It does little to addresss the "too big to fail" problem as banks actually became larger after the financial crisis of 2008, and are too big and complex to manage. He also points to the risks of not separating proprietary trading from bank holding activities, and the need for something similiar to Glass-Steagall to separate the two. See Volcker's views on that subject....

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Nocera says that the Obama regulatory reform did not address the issue of banks or financial firms that are too big to fail. Issues that were raised by Former Fed chairman Volcker. It also does not address the issue of customized deritvatives, the derivatives that caused so much damage during the financial crisis, especially at AIG. For these derivatives the Treasury Department will establish a clearinghouse, so that their price and trading activity can be more readily seen. The reform places enormous trust on whoever is running the Fed. This trust has not supported by the actions of Mr Greenspan in letting the bubble develop, and in favoring little or no regulation.

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Britain's banks still owe the government 100 billion pounds ($158 billion) from the bailouts that followed the 2008 financial crisis. The incentivizing of risk by pay structures and bonuses was seen as a big part of the problem. LIBOR manipulation abuses by banks are still on regulators minds. The Financial Conduct Authority and the Bank of England's Prudential Regulation Authority, have set new rules to correct the problem. Earlier EU rules limited bonuses to 100% of salary. The new FCA rules require a 3 year period for traders and risk managers have to wait 5 years for performance awards in full. Top executives have a ten year wait to be certain claw back provisions do not go into effect. Andrey Bailey at the PRA says the rule is designed so "that people in positions of responsibility are rewarded for behaviour which fosters a culture of effective risk management and thus promotes the safety and soundness of individual institutions. "

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New risks are emerging in the shadow banking system as regulators work to make the banks safer. Banks as deposit backed financial firms are different from mutual funds, private equity and other firms that are doing more of the financing for business and home loans in the U.S. financial system. As banks deleverage responding to tighter regulation by increasing capital buffers and reducing assets, it makes the financial system safer, yet creates new risks in the shadow banking system not subject to regulation and not supported by bank deposits the way banks are. A IMF report put out in April 2015 underlines these new risks in the U.S. and European financial system. Mutual funds and exchange-traded funds now rival banks in providing financing to companies with high debt. Total bond holdings worldwide in 2014 were $9.6 trillion, increasing 25% over 2008, and the mutual funds leveraged loans increased 60% to $151 billion in the U.S., 223% in the eurozone to $126 billion, according to the IMF. The IMF points out that these mutual funds and exchange traded funds favor emerging market and corporate junk bonds, and operate in a way where they mimic each others in their investments, creating contagion. With hard to sell securities and the rapid decline in these types of funds in a panic, the effect could be to create contagion across the funds. In the mortgage lending field a similiar process of deleveraging is happening. U.S. banks share of federally guaranteed mortgages from big banks down from 61% in late 2012 to 33% in 2015, other smaller finance companies taking up 51% increasing from 24%, according to an American Enterprise Institute report. Paul Tucker, former deputy governor of the Bank of England, points out the dangers. He says policy makers and regulators are playing catchup with firms in the financial services industry who are constantly looking for gaps in the rules, a game that policymakers and regulators are likely to lose at some point....

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Sale by Credit Suisse of a $2.8 billion porfolio of bad commercial property loans to Apollo Management for $1.2 billion. Banks were reluctant to take big losses on boom time real estate loans after the financial crisis of 2008. As a result few sales with big losses ocurred. Banking profits and better financial conditions in late 2010 makes taking losses on bad loans easier to absorb. Demand for distressed assets from private equity funds has pushed up prices buyers are willing to pay. Executives at private equity firms say banks are definitely lossening up. Kingsley Greenland, CEO of loan-sale advisory firm Debt Exchange, says banks are getting more aggressive, not only marking the assets appropriately but moving forward with selling the assets. Debt Exchange sold commercial real estate loans on behalf of 38 financial institutions since October 2010, compared to 19 in the last quarter of 2009.

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Germany's chancellor Angela Merkel says she will not support the moves by the EU commission to impose export bans on export of Astra Zeneca vaccines made in EU countries to Britain. A Dutch factory has 4 million doses of this vaccine ready for shipment.  Merkel says, "there are a huge range of international interdependencies when it comes to vaccine production. You have to be very careful when it comes to imposing export bans. You have to take a close look at supply chains."  Merkel's action comes as Britain makes an effort to talk to German and French leaders for a fair way to allocate supplies of vaccine. France and Germany see the need for the principles of "reciprocity" and "equivalence" to be covered in settling the differences on vaccine supplies. Equivalence refers to the sense that there should not be a big gap between EU and non EU countries in vaccine access. On March 24, Britain had vaccinated 45 of 100 people in the country, and EU had vaccinated only 13 people in a hundred. ...

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Is the jobless rate in Liverpool, in the one time industrial heartland of Britain about 6% or counting the hidden jobless close to 13%. Is the unemployment rate much higher than the 3% in official statistics for Britain because official statistics do not include the hidden jobless. Learn more about this astonishing quirk in the statistics that distorts reality about social conditions. None less than the OECD, the Organization of Economic Cooperation and Development and the Center for cities thinkt tank is of the view that 3 million people are missing from the official jobless figures. The OECD report says that when these 3 million people are counted the UK's unemployment or jobless rate is about 13.2% or abut 4.3 million people. This report shows that the austerity policies of the last ten years in Britain have bit by bit hurt people's chances of finding work.  The OECD/Centre for Cities study shows something else that is striking- it says Liverpool has the highest rate of hidden jobless in its study, with about 20% of working age adults out of work compared to an official rate of 5.8%. The mayor of the Liverpool region, Steve Rotheram, sitting in his office overlooking the Albert Dock on the banks of the Mersey river, where Britain's mighty shipbuilding industry once dominated and now in decay, says sanctioning people does not work,  a decade of cuts have done damage, and that his authority runs Households into Work, in an attempt to treat people as human beings first to get a better response. The government job centres tend to focus on people 25-35, says food bank and job support charity at the Anglican Cathedral on a ridge overlooking the Mersey. That means a lot of people in their forties and fifties are left out. ...

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The expected glut in office space in London. About 8 million square feet of new office space is being built in the financial district known as the City and a large part of it is coming in in 2008. The level of construction is 60% higher than the City's 10 year average. About 80% of this office space is speculative , that no tenants exist yet for the space, normally only 50% is speculative. And this is happening when new lease signings in the City fell by 49% in the 4th quarter compared to the third quarter. Big banks like Citigroup are cutting down on office space and Macquarie Group and Australian bank is postponing plans to lease office space for a London headquarters.