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Project 2025, originating at the Heritage Foundation, most dangerous idea similar to abolishing Social Security is to consider abolishing the US Federal Reserve. Why? Because the Fed was established to avoid banking panics and setup a sound banking system, a sound economic system. It suggests unravelling solutions that were developed after one hundred years of experience gained by US that has made the period since 1950 the least crisis prone compared to prior to Fed's formation in 1913.  Mr. Trump himself said in 2022 that the Heritage Foundation will "lay the groundwork and detail the plans" for what our movement will do, according to the WSJ report." It has become a matter of huge controversy with plans for outright attacks on the civil service, a blueprint of plans to shut down important government agencies such as the Education Department, Department of Homeland Security, and affect the functioning of the government of the United States in accordance with the Constitution.  The most radical is to change the financial system of the US that evolved from the Great Depression and previous economic crises since 1900 that led to the formation of the US Federal Reserve as the central bank that monitors aspects of the economy such as inflation and unemployment. Project 2025 says consider abolishing the US Federal Reserve and replace it with 'free banking' that does not control interest rates or the supply of money. These are untested ideas but more significant is the fact that it is the US Fed that under different presidents has taken the lead in managing the economy when a crisis happened. President Woodrow Wilson signed into law the founding of the US Fed, and its regional Fed system with a. supervisory board in Washington on Dec 23, 1913. Before the Fed the US currency was printed by individual banks and inflation or the economy could not be controlled. This led to banking panics the last in 2007, with great loss to the working people and families of America. It is unthinkable today that individual banks not the central bank the US Fed would issue US currency dollar banknotes. Yet it is just this kind of radical Barry Goldwater type of idea that is being put forward in Project 2025 that is written for a future administration running the country. ...

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Britain leaves the European Union on January 31, 2020, almost half a century after it joined the EU. There is a transition period till December 31, 2020 to work out the trading arrangements with the EU. Britain is asking for a trade deal similar to that which Canada signed with the EU recently. Boris Johnson says he would accept a "off-the-shelf" model first proposed by the EU negotiator Michael Barnier. 

The Canada model would mean an almost tariffs free trading arrangement which would include border checks, and which would exclude Britain's large services sector. This would be the ideal arrangement in the British view. The impact as estimated by the British Treasury is for the negative impact on the British economy to be minimal, for the British economy to be about 4.9% smaller over 15 years compared to having not left the EU. This might be offset by trade gains with trade deals made with other countries such as the U.S. and Japan.

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A key figure in approval ratings is 46% with DJT getting 46% approval for the economy and on a range of issues including immigration. On tariffs the situation is steadily improving with new trade agreements with Japan, the EU, South Korea that were announced after or just when this WSJ poll was taken on July 20. Among Republicans 88% support the president and 66% strongly support him which says this report means more of them would turn out to vote. More significant is that the optimistic rating of the economy went up by 11 percentage points from April 2025 to 46% in July 2025. This is also the view of Fed chairman Powell. Each step of the way as DJT tariff actions result in tangible improvements in trade relations for the US and result in concrete real world trade agreements for a level playing field in world trade, the president's actions are seen in a different light. The first Trade Agreement with the UK, then with Japan and now quite possibly with the European Union. All this within 6 months of the president acting in February 2025. A major role played also by Bessent, Greer, Luttnick and others in the cabinet of ministers. This lifts perceptions of the president in the eyes of the American people in handling the economy, business and world trade, and protecting the interests of America's farmers, and rural communities. ...

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China GDP growth forecast at 5% in 2025 and first half actuals at 5.3% with frontloading. The frontloading is because of surge in exporting before tariffs hit by May.  China is waiting to put fiscal stimulus as it fears tariffs will lower growth and increase unemployment. The housing sector is in deep slump. At this point fiscal stimulus is determined in Washington DC. The actual growth in 2025 may turn out to be much lower than 5% considering the weakness in the economy and the issues of tariffs and tough trade negotiations with the US and a changed environment for trade with the European Union.

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This opinion of the Editorial Board of WSJ says it is not clear why Taiwan has been excluded from the Indo-Pacific Economic Framework that includes most of South East Asia including Indonesia, and India, South Korea, Japan, Australia. The Biden administration plans to deepen economic ties with Taiwan. WSJ says this is a mistake and Taiwan should be included in the new Asian alliance led by the US. IPEF is a Asian alliance built around 4 pillars of digital economy, transparency and good governance, Asian security and rule of law, and rapid economic technological progress. Biden administration Commerce minister Raimondo says it will increase investment in the alliance countries for supply chain renewal and shift of investments away from China and into India, Vietnam. President Biden and Jake Sullivan see it as pulling in investment into the US for infrastructure and technology and into allies such as India who have the pool of manufacturing workers to compete with China in a new supply chain. Mr. Modi also sees it as he is focused on digital economy, good governance, and infrastructure with speed and scale at high levels to match rising aspirations for the economy in India. It is designed in a way that lets US, Japan South Korea and India to fill in the needs and strategies over the period to 2030 and 2040 so that US and Europe and the Free World in Asia and Latin America, Africa can preserve democratic values with matching technological and economic strength. ...

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In a sign that the trade negotiations with China are stalled even as negotiators met for talks, president Trump said China was slowing talks down in the hope of talking to ELizabeth Warren or Joe Biden, Democratic candidates for the elections in the U.S. in 2020.  President Trump also said China has not come through the way it said on agricultural imports from the U.S. He tweeted "that is the problem with China they just don't come through." Mr. Trump also took credit for the slowing down of China's economy from the tariffs war. Mr. Trump took credit for China's weakening economy, making some companies leave, the tariffs he has imposed on $250 billion of Chinese products causing enormous pressure. Chinese exports to the U.S. have dropped by 8.5% and exports to other countries up slightly. China's infrastructure investments are cushioning part of the shock from the tariffs war. No major stimulus is planned in China because it would worsen the debt already accumulated after the over stimulus conducted in response to the financial crisis of 2009. Both sides are willing to wait it out.   ...

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One estimate fof US economic growth is for 4.6% growth in the third quarter for the US. The US economy is doing much better than expected, much better than either Germany or China in 2023, with the investment in infrastructure and renewable energy of the Biden administration.

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This columnist opinion in Le Monde reflects the view in Europe that the US is in retreat, and in some quarters such as NYT that the new US foreign policy that sets the Monroe Doctrine as key aspect of foreign policy is a retreat- US setting the rules in the Western Hemisphere around democracy and governance. It says the US has set aside the ambition first proclaimed in 1945 and revived in 1991 after the fall of the Soviet Union. US administrations under Clinton and Bush took this posture after 1991 of dominant position but it did not reflect reality. US like Russia was dragged into many remote conflicts that had little to do with the standard of living, and economic advancement of the US. The US has a dilapidated infrastructure, broken healthcare system, and operates in a world trading system that has deindustrialized the nation and shipped out jobs and factories for 20 years, and worse is exposed to drug and people trafficking gangs in Mexico and Venezuela. The Monroe Doctrine 1823 asserted the US right to keep European colonial powers out of America, and it was possible only because the British also supported it in the 19th century till the US built up its Navy under TR and FDR. With Russia recognized as a European power the US is able to get its support for the US to tackle the situation in the Western hemisphere presented by drug and people trafficking gangs in Mexico and Venezuela. Tariffs are intended to get a new world trading system with new rules. Infrastructure building is underway on a scale that will far surpass China by 2030. This is not a retreat but an advancement for the Nation and the American people after three decades of failed policy. It lets the European powers Germany, France and Britain deal with Russia's requirement that NATO withdraw from its borders and recognition of Russia as a Northern European power. European history has shown that since 1700 that when faced with a majority of nations in Europe any dominant power in Europe is forced to negotiate a peaceful resolution of conflict because of it's limited resources to carry on a conflict. This should lead to a peaceful resolution in Ukraine, that allows rebuilding, and also gives the US an opportunity to rebuild its economy and standard of living for the American people. This will be a win-win for both the Russians and the Western Europeans, and both Latin America and the US, China and the US, India/Japan/Brazil and the US. ...

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The reopening of the economy is being stalled and lockdowns, restrictions, reinstated in July 2020 as the pandemic surges. The lockdowns are being reinstated in parts of Australia, in Bihar, India and other countries, and in other places such as California restrictions are back in place. Wearing masks in public spaces is also mandatory in Britain and France as prevention measures are being taken. In Japan wearing masks is a habit from before the pandemic. India, the U.S. and Brazil, Mexico are seeing a surge.

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Men all in their 20's and at different points in their careers, from all parts of the US are interviewed by the WSJ 6 months into the DJT administration to see what they think of performance so far.

Young men as a demographic group are optimistic about the economy even with high interest rates restricting housing access. Young men supported DJT in 2024 by 15 percentage points 57% to 42% giving the president an edge. Overall on foreign affairs messy international disputes, on immigration and hurdles in resolving returning migrants to home countries, they are considerate about what difficulties the president faces. They are optimistic about president DJT and his ability to handle tariffs, inflation, and the economic growth that will improve their lives in the coming years.

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Greg Ip looks at the Chinese economy its strengths and and many weaknesses including debt and declining foreign investment in 2023, as president Xi visits the US this coming week. With a slowing economy, high youth unemployment and excessive debt, China remains a resilient economy because it has strengths in manufacturing. It would take the US the next decade to build up its manufacturing capabilities after neglecting this important field with mistaken policies for three decades under presidents Reagan, Bush, Clinton, Obama and Trump. President Biden is taking steps for this new manufacturing revival to take place.

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BRICS is becoming an obsolete concept as Brazil, India and South Africa are essentially looking for ways in which they can increase opportunities for growth. It was a concept started by a Goldman Sachs investment banker Mr. O'Neill at a different time in 2010. The world has gone through the 2009 financial crisis, the pandemic, and the supply chain crisis with overconcentration of EU and US supply chain in China. These events are leading to a shift under the Biden administration to bring India  into the G7 into a new G8 that includes India. Only Russia, China and South Africa remain from the original BRICS. Russia because of the war in Ukraine now depends on Chinese support and trade. Brazil will gradually shift back to its position as part of the US alliance in Latin America with Mexico, Argentina and Chile. India with its plans for rapid growth to build the modern third largest economy by 2040 seeks supply chain integration with the US and EU in the position that China holds today.   ...

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The US economy is showing a stronger services sector in 2023 as demand for goods slows, manufacturing slows, and there is more spending on travel, leisure and in hospitality sectors. This is shown by recent S&P Global Surveys.

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India is storing as much oil as it can at today's low oil prices of about $20-$30 per barrel in May 2020. With India asking the U.S. to store oil from U.S. shale producers at its strategic petroleum reserve storage facilities in the U.S. Already its existing storage facilities of 5.3 million tonnes (39 million barrels) are full, and the storage capacity will be more than doubled with an additional 6.5 million tonnes (48 million barrels) to be built quickly. About 8.5 million tonnes (62 million barrrels)  are in ships on oceans around the world. Demand is only 20% during the lockdown but is expected to reach levels of 2019 by June 2020. Only about 20% of oil consumption comes from existing storage.   That Indian oil capacity is 39 million barrels of storage shows how little was done over succeeding administrations without national aspirations for a growing country with hundreds of million of young people, when the oil storage capacity today of 39 million barrels compares with over 500 million barrels for Japan and for China. A huge Indian government aid package of $280 billion for the economy can be offset by gains in other areas such as low oil price oil storage, and gains in supply chain manufacturing, increasing the size of the domestic market for local manufacturers with incentives and loans, and new rules for stressing local manufacturing for a self-reliant economy. ...

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The 1.4% decline on an annualized basis for the US economy in the first quarter of 2022 masks evidence of a recovery that is basically strong, says this report in the NYT. Consumer spending was up by 0.7 in the first quarter of 2022, even thought the omicron wave hit, and gas prices were high. This NYT report says the decline resulted mostly from the way inventories and trade figure in the calculation.

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GE Vernova turbine maker Ford Motor and Dollar General retail replace Apple Tesla Google in stock market growth in June 2025. This is a healthy sign for the US economy.

Lower growth of 0.8% in the first two quarters was expected as the US recalibrates its position in the world economy as a manufacturing powerhouse. Inflation is moderate even with tariffs says Fed chairman Powell -close to 2.4-2.8 percent. Unemployment is low, with no layoffs and companies waiting to invest with the 3B Big Bold Beautiful Tax Cuts Bill provisions on expensing investments 100 percent provision. The attention is not on tariffs as agreements with UK will be followed by EU and Japan. Attention is on the Tax Cuts Bill compromise of Senate and House versions.

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In the days when cross border technology flows were limited and the investment in India was small, India's technological capabilities at an early stage H1-B visa program acted as an exchange program where Indian engineers could gain experience and skills, learn new technologies in the US, that would benefit both India and the US taking a long term view. In 2025 when cross border technology flows to India from the US are large and significant, when Indian investment is large India's economy fastest growing and from a much larger base, with ability to absorb talented engineers in expanding Indian business, the H1-B program is one that drains both the US and India. India as a huge brain drain of 60,000 of its best engineers every year to 2030 or 300,000 of its best engineers and the 3 million engineers they would have trained locally through their creative talents. For the US it means the loss of 300,000 engineering jobs to 2030 for locals in 51 states in the Nation. Both make no sense. Business practices once set do not change. This is why an executive order by DJT was signed by the president to impose a $100,000 fee that Tata, Meta, Google, Microsoft, Apple can choose to pay every year for 6 years if they want to hire someone on H1-B Visas. To call this group of Indian H1-B of 60,000 engineers "dreamers" also makes no sense because 3.3 million engineers knowledge base and skills to India's growth capabilities and modernization could increase economic growth, modernization of Indian infrastructure, to make India a Dream State to live in. And the same number of American born engineers would make each of the America's 51 states Dream States through repowering America's new modernization of infrastructure and power economic growth. ...

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Canadian steel and lumber industries get government aid, as talks to end US tariffs are halted over an ad on Reagan misrepresenting him on tariffs by Ontario state.  Canada's steel and lumber industries will get the aid in the form of railway costs cut in half with rail subsidies, and tariffs on US steel imports into Canada to reduce domestic steel costs for other industries. Stellantis shifts car production for a new Jeep from suburban Toronto to Illinois, GM cut a shift at a pickup plant and closed a electric van plant in Ontario. Not all imports to the US from Canada face tariffs. Other products enter the US from Canada under a free trade agreement USMCA that went into effect July 1 2020. Canada is also shifting policy under Carney's Liberals on climate change, as it seeks to reorient its economy to export oil to China and India- a new pipeline is now approved for oil and gas to be shipped across the country from Alberta. Since it's independence with Dominion status in 1867 Canada's economy has struggled with the idea of building a economy separate from the US so that trade between the northeastern Canada and Northeastern US which is next to each other is foregone for trade with distant provinces in the western states such as Alberta and British Columbia. In Brazil Lula's Worker's Party is also slowing efforts on climate change for the economy as it approves oil and gas projects in the Amazon, at the same time as it holds COP30 at Belem port in the Amazon. Even Biden had shown flexibility on the economy to support cost of living measures that are in conflict with climate change action. In DJT's second term climate change action has taken a back seat to cost of living concerns when a large majority of people are living paycheck to paycheck. ...

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China's GDP declines by 6.8% in the first quarter 2020 year over year, and 9.8% from the previous quarter, the first such decline since 1992, even going as far back as 1976 with the passing of the Mao era. It is not power production or coal consumption which have returned to prior levels. It is the demand from the U.S. and Europe, other countries which are in lockdowns. Estimates are that 80 million people in a population of 900 million working age people lost their jobs, with another 10 million expected to be lost, about 10% of the total. Global trade companies are hardest hit.  Consumers inside China are reducing spending. Some are using only the small government issued vouchers designed to get people to go out and spend.  The Trump administration plans to bring back some of the production lost to China in essential areas such as public health and security back to the U.S. The supply chains are already shifting to other countries from U.S. tariffs. As a result some estimates show zero growth in 2020 for China. Financial instability and prior leveraging concerns remain to prevent any serious stimulus. By contrast the U.S. is cushioning the impact with $2 trillion aid package benefitting from a strong dollar and healthy economy before the virus. ...

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U.S. president Trump's statement calling for a list of goods for tariffs on $200 billion of Chinese goods leaves China without a clear response and facing new risks. The U.S. exports about $150 billion in goods to China so that China would have to impose penalties to respond at the same level. Placing restrictions on American firms on access to China's market, and imposing other penalties would have the effect of reinforcing the perception of unfair practices targeting American business and lead to hardening of U.S. response.  The U.S. sees itself as being in a better position with the U.S. economy experiencing a growth trend. China with large local government and bank debt faces a difficult situation. President Jinping's policy of reducing the risks of bad debt in the banking system involved sacrificing some growth to stabilize the system. China's GDP growth in 2017 was 6.9%, the target at 6.5%. Future targets and actual growth now look to be much lower.The trade war with the U.S. has the effect of dampening growth leading to calls for the central bank to loosen its monetary stance. In response to Trump's announcement the People's Bank of China pumped $31 billion into the nation's banks. China is studying Japan's response in the 1980's and 1990's when the U.S. took strong action against Japan's growing trade surplus. Japan responded by appreciating its currency and using stimulus to cushion the effect of lower exports on the economy. The stimulus led to the housing bubble and over time a period of low growth and stagnant economy. The large China stimulus in 2008-2009 has compounded the problems in the banking system. Not deleveraging and controlling financial risks in China's banking system because of the trade war would bring a new set of risks. ...

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In a very real sense US and NATO Europe has failed by blanket applying the principle of national sovereignty without recognizing that there are general rules that have to make room for some exceptions or nuances in cultural and historic linkages as in the case of Ukraine's most eastern regions along Russia's borders. Only about 30% of American public in Pew Research poll sees Russian war in Ukraine as a threat to the US, among Republicans it is only 19%. Remember this is during the third year of the war with staggering losses on both sides when prolonging the war makes no sense.  If the American public were properly informed by the media that Zelensky's popularity has dropped to 16%.  That the eastern regions of Ukraine near the border speak Russian and share a common culture, and had voted for Russia oriented parties before the war began -not in 2021 but in 2013 with the Maidan movement in Lviv near Poland leading to the whole of Ukraine except parts of the east nearest to Russia moving towards the west- it might look at the larger picture and seek a settlement which accepts Russian commitments to peace with these regions as part of Russian Federation. The staggering losses on both sides cannot justify the conflict and it is not in the America's, India's, China's, or Europe's interest to damage the Russian economy or further damage Ukrainian infrastructure in a war that changes little in the winter of 2024-2025.  ...

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This report in the WSJ makes the America centric thinking mistake of forgetting where China started from in assessing progress and China's new priorities. In 1960 the World Bank shows China per capita at $90 which does not change much till 1990 when it was $300, the Deng opening to western technology and capital pushed it up to $3000 the year 2000 (US $36,000) and $4500 in 2010 (US $50,000) when the global financial crisis hit. Since 2010 the Chinese economy was burdened by high local government debt and struggled to get to $10,000 in 2020 under Xi Jinping's first two terms as president. Yet it paid a huge price for this -the chance of Bo Xilai (2014) upsetting the twin banners of Science and Modernization of the May 4th 1919 movement that set the course of China for 100 years uninterrupted through the Nationalists, the Japanese occupation, the Maoist CCP, the Deng CCP opening and Jinping CCP pullback. The huge inequality was seen as an opportunity for Bo Xi Lai or some other leader to capitalize on moving China in an unknown direction that posed risks for the future of China. Even then the first preference of Xi would be to carry on with what had worked after Deng. Yet it was clear that working class votes were shifting the dynamics of elections after the Trump election and closing the doors to open access to western capital, technology, and investment. With Trump in erratic and uncertain ways, with Biden after the elections of 2020 consistent and with single minded determination to limit flows. Not just Xi, any other Chinese leader would have had to have the internal discussions about the need to shift back to a model China was familiar with and one that worked before- that of state intervention in the economy, that of reducing the inequalities that posed risks for the CCP's survival as forging a path for stability to carry out the twin banners of the May 4, 1919 Movement - Science and Modernization as China's salvation. Unlike the hysteria about China posing a challenge to the US these internal debates of Xi and the party may have concluded that the US with about half the population of China's as it grows with immigration in the future and multiple times the per capita GDP was a country that no other country was going to come close to. In this sense the supply chains are deceptive as these are likely to be completely redone under the Biden administration to bring most important manufacturing back to China. It is in this context that Xi had limited room to manoeuvre and decided to focus on stability for the long term to fulfill China's dream of the May 4, 1919 Movement of the last 100 years for Science and Modernization casting aside the risks associated for instability of the inequality that comes with more of the western type of growth, and with the climate change risks also associated with it. Lower growth gives China a chance to correct some of the flaws of the hyper growth that was partly of its own making and partly thrust upon it by investors from the outside, so that the new climate would best serve the goals of the May 4, 1919 Movement of keeping high the banners of Science and Modernization. This kind of rethinking is also going on in the US in the same manner about inequalities and hardships for workers and families, with some of the anger directed at China as internal political sentiment- hence the trillions of dollars moved by the Biden administration to address the flaws of growth under free markets and intervene in the economy where needed as in climate change to give firm sense of direction. In a sense the direction taken in different contexts the American and the Chinese are the same - address the problems of workers and families, of the people, as Lincoln had pointed out and striven so hard for, so that Labor is the more important than Capital, and workers and families vital to the nation.   ...

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Of 161 million people employed in 2024 about 40-50 million in vulnerable groups living from paycheck to paycheck and without savings to support them in a medical emergency is a real problem in the US economy. It is why even as unemployment looks good at 4% and inflation down to 3% there is a lot of angst for Americans for cost of living. Fifteen million baby boomers who will turn 65 years for retirement between now 2024 and 2030 face a situation where they have less than 250,000 in savings. Many who were born between 1945 and 1962 called baby boomers are in this group with diminished savings. In the prime of their careers they were hit by the 2009 financial crisis caused by bank speculation risk taking. They also were hit by the pandemic in the peak years of income growth. Other such vulnerable groups are young people with high student who are being helped by president Biden. There are also the low income groups that have been hit by medical costs and a family emergency that were pushed into poverty. Other groups in the millions are the people at the low income levels who are working paycheck to paycheck because of housing costs. About one fourth or 25% of apartment renters are people whose households budget shows 50% or more going to housing costs which have increased 20% in the last 2-3 years, which includes the pandemic years 2022 and 2023. President Biden seeks to limit apartment rent price increases to 5% and Kamala Harris has proposed help for families for the portion above 30% of household income going to rent. The jump in cost of living from automobiles, automobile repair and housing, cost of groceries have affected other groups with large credit card debt. This is a result of the supply chain concentration in China which comes from American business overconcentrating production in China and previous administrations doing little about this. Biden's answer is to bring jobs and manufacturing knowhow and investment back to America. During the pandemic some people resisted getting vaccinated and lost their jobs, a million people lost their lives, others took early retirement seeing the stress ful lives during the pandemic, others including women quit to take care of children. This has reduced the labor supply to business leading to tight supply higher prices.The result is that there are about 5 such vulnerable groups each with about 5-10 million people for a total of about 40-50 million people at risk. For these people the cost of living presents huge challenges, including childcare. It includes young people and retirees, single women and families on low income hourly wages that have not kept up with inflation.  ...

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US economy posts strong growth of 2.8% in the second quarter 2024, after 1.4% in the first quarter. This gives room for the Fed to decide if it needs to cut rates. The growth was broad based with consumer spending, business investment and government infrastructure spending aiding growth.

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China follows Japan in the proportion of its elderly population at a similar juncture in its development. A paper from Japan's Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry pointed out that the proportion of child and elderly populations in China as of 2020 was similar to Japan's in 1990. China reached that inflection point faster with fertility rate falling from 2.74 to 1.28 in a 4 decade period, while Japan's fell from 1.75 to 1.29. That paper also shows India's proportion of child and elderly population in 2020 was similar to China's in 1980 when its economic boom took off. The overconcentration of supply chain in China is now being addressed by business in US and Europe after the pandemic showed its weakness. Prime minister Modi says this overconcentration has hurt even and balanced development worldwide.