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Stephens of NYT shows the effects of zero interest rates in shifting trillions of dollars of wealth away from the middle and lower classes in America. Zero interest rates in 2009 were a response to a financial crisis created by the irresponsible behaviour of Banks and financial firms in the US. The loss of manufacturing and shipping of jobs overseas added to the effects of zero interest rates in increasing poverty and deprivation in the US.

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China's GDP declines by 6.8% in the first quarter 2020 year over year, and 9.8% from the previous quarter, the first such decline since 1992, even going as far back as 1976 with the passing of the Mao era. It is not power production or coal consumption which have returned to prior levels. It is the demand from the U.S. and Europe, other countries which are in lockdowns. Estimates are that 80 million people in a population of 900 million working age people lost their jobs, with another 10 million expected to be lost, about 10% of the total. Global trade companies are hardest hit.  Consumers inside China are reducing spending. Some are using only the small government issued vouchers designed to get people to go out and spend.  The Trump administration plans to bring back some of the production lost to China in essential areas such as public health and security back to the U.S. The supply chains are already shifting to other countries from U.S. tariffs. As a result some estimates show zero growth in 2020 for China. Financial instability and prior leveraging concerns remain to prevent any serious stimulus. By contrast the U.S. is cushioning the impact with $2 trillion aid package benefitting from a strong dollar and healthy economy before the virus. ...

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China's huge trade surplus with the U.S. continues to grow even after President Trump imposed tariffs on Chinese imports. China's total exports have risen by 15.6% from a year earlier, higher than the 14.5% increase year over year in September. Exports to India, Hong Kong, grew by more than 20% in October over a year earlier.  By Chinese figures China's trade surplus with the U.S. of $260 billion for 10 months of 2018 is up 15% from year earlier, ready to set another record. This does not tally with what the U.S. says it is, with the U.S. estimate of the trade gap at $375.2 billion, over $1 billion each and every day. Previous administrations of both Republican and Democratic parties put up with the trade surplus or did little. President Trump has taken this up as a big issue and imposed tariffs on Chinese goods in a series of actions. The combined U.S. and Chinese tariffs now cover 60% of their trade in goods after the latest round of tit for tat tariffs. Experts say there is front loading of Chinese exports which accounts for the sharp increase in exports to beat the date when tariffs go into effect. Yet the overall increase in China's exports, with an added impetus from a stronger dollar suggests that the trade gap with the U.S. is a problem that will fester for a while till the trends are reversed.  ...

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Argentina's government of president Alberto Fernandes is making a state takeover of Vicentin, a soyabean exporter which filed for bankruptcy in 2019 and is in ongoing court proceedings. Mr. Fernandes says he is doing this to rescue the century old agricultural firm to protect Vicentin workers, and 2600 farmers who sell crops to the company. Vicentin is Argentina's top exporter of soy meal and soy cooking oil. Mr. Fernandez says the company is a very important asset for the entire Argentine economy. Argentina's farm exports are its main source of earnings in dollars.  A drought in Argentina's farm sector in April 2018 led to a drop in export revenues and worsened Argentina's financial position leading to the 2020 default on Argentine debt. In 2018 the farm sector lost a third of its crop value and 1.5% of GDP. Growth in 2017 was 3% but declined to 1% in 2018. A number of other factors including overborrowing using dollar denominated debt led to the economic crisis in 2020 right in the middle of the pandemic in May 2020. Fernandez is a moderate compared to the previous Kirchner administrations and was elected in 2019 to get Argentina out of the debt crisis after confidence in president Mauricio Macri declined. Fernandez has tackled the coronavirus crisis with an early lockdown compared to neighboring Brazil which has not taken decisive action making Brazil the second largest after the U.S. in cases. This gives Argentina some room to tackle the debt crisis and negotiations with the IMF, lenders. ...

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This WSJ Exclusive report shows the lives of Afghan officials in large residences in Florida, California, and the Emirates after they fled the Taliban takeover of Afghanistan. Mr. Ashraf Ghani who headed the government fled the country early with the help of Turkey says this report in the WSJ, leading to the collapse of Kabul. The US sacrificed many lives and trillions of dollars to support different regimes in Afghanistan under presidents Bush and Obama. It was only under the Trump and Biden administrations that the US conducted a swift and complete withdrawal. Mr. Trump made the issue of wasted billions of dollars in the war a major issue of his campaign, in addition to the issue of technology and capital going to China with offshore movement of American manufacturing. The pandemic has made the job of returning American manufacturing to America and investment in infrastructure, ease of living, good healthcare and education, even more critical for America and the American people. ...

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How to keep confidence in the dollar and stabilize its value by cooperating with the ECB and the Bank of Japan to stabilize a sinking dollar. A sinking dollar would add to inflation in the US and undermine confidence.

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The U.S. Education Department in its report on American universities says foreign funds were often not disclosed, comes with strings attached, and the contacts without transparency or oversight by the U.S. In one instance Cornell University initially failed to report to U.S. authorites more than $1.2 billion it received, says this WSJ report. The U.S. government is concerned that this kind of foreign money gives improper access to U.S. technology to foreign governments, including China. "The U.S. universities are a technological treasure trove in leading internationally competitive fields. For too long these institutions have provided an unprecedented level of access to foreign governments and their instrumentalities in an environment lacking transparency and oversight," says the Education Department report. The report went on to say that "institutional decision making is generally divorced from any sense of obligation to American national interests, security or values." In one instance it cited work that the WSJ says is identifiable as Georgetown University work with the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China deriving $2 million from the arrangement. WSJ says one institution identifiable as Cornell failed to document its institution in Qatar. Multiple schools received millions of dollars from Huawei whose equipment has become a security concern for the U.S. government. Schools being investigated include Harvard, Cornell, Georgetown, Texas A&M, MIT. After the Education Department crackdown U.S. Universities self-reported about $6.6 billion and an additional $1.05 billion recent period, from Qatar, China, Saudi Arabia, and U.A.E., says WSJ.  In other situations the Education Department report says China sought to "leverage its relationships with American universities to dominate a global market- in artificial intelligence." ...

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The Russian ruble goes over 40 to the U.S. dollar in October 2014, with the impact of capital outflows, the weakening foreign investment climate and western sanctions.

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Spencer Jakab points out reasons why interest rates will remain low for some time to come- inflation of around 2%, even lower interest rates in Europe and Japan, foreign buying of U.S. bonds keeping the dollar strong, and sluggish economic growth in the U.S.

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The Trump administration released its framework for NAFTA negotiations. The framework is designed to reduce the U.S. trade deficit and promote "Buy America" provisions. It will challenge Mexico on labor and environmental matters, which is likely to win the support of Democrats. A mechanism for preventing countries from getting unfair advantage through currency manipulation is part of the framework, yet less of an issue with Mexico and Canada. It will also work to protect U.S. trade interests in an effort to appeal to workers who supported Trump in the 2016 election. Overall it does not deviate much from established U.S. trade policy, according to the WSJ. For this reason the new guidelines were welcomed by the Mexican and Canadian governments. Mexico and Canada also see this as an effort to modernize the agreement to reflect changes in technology and commerce since NAFTA was signed. Under fast track trade promotion authority the president's Trade Representative Mr. Lighthizer can start negotiations in 30 days. One of the matters up for change is the Chapter 19 dispute settlement mechanism which makes it easier for Canada and Mexico to avert trade sanctions. Mexico's economic prospects have improved as the NAFTA renegotiation avoids the sharp rhetoric of the election campaign. The Mexican peso which traded at 22 to the dollar in January 2017 following the U.S. election, is now trading in July 2017 at 18 to the dollar.   ...

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Karishma Vaswani of the BBC points out that the Trump administration tariffs and the response from China with tariffs of its own, are not the beginning of a trade war but negotiating tactics of both sides. Behind the scenes and behind the declarations and position statements both sides are talking to each other and considering the options open to each. The U.S. position is that China has emerged with a bigger share of the global economy by dumping products, subsidizing its industries from solar panels to high tech ventures, and stealing American technology by forcing U.S. firms into joint ventures that increase pass through of advanced technology. U.S. firms seeking access to the Chinese market or using China as a manufacturing base such as Boeing, Apple, GE and other high tech companies are in ventures or manufacturing arrangements where China has access to advanced American technology. Nathaniel Taplin in his article in the WSJ also sees this as a negotiating position set out in the U.S. for talks with China. Taplin says the U.S. is in a stronger position in this negotiation because of the huge surplus of about $300 billion that China now has with the U.S., and which is increasing in 2018 with the strength of the dollar. The Trump administration is looking to correct the trade imbalance in the future by focussing on China's access to advanced U.S. technologies in the next phase of competition between the U.S., Europe and China. This limited objective is more likely to lead to concessions by China Taplin argues, because of two reasons. China needs the dynamism of U.S. firms and technology advances because these firms and Chinese firms that are getting foreign investment are the most productive part of the Chinese economy with jobs generated, rate of return about twice that of inefficient state run firms. China also needs access to advanced U.S. and European technologies even in a limited form as it pursues further modernization.   ...

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EIA says half of the benefit of higher fuel efficiency standards for Automobiles 2010-2020 in US was lost because of SUV's and the incentivizing of SUV's in the 2006 CAFE standards have made things worse. The first SUV's came in the 1980's. By 2004 SUV's made up half of car sales and by 2025 outsold cars 2 to 1. What if we took all SUV's and large cars off the roads, or even some of these SUV's by deincentivizing of SUV's in the US CAFE corporate fuel efficiency standards? What would be the savings in crude oil and in carbon footprint? Would it be about the same as releasing an additional 400 million barrels of oil into the markets in addition to the 400 million barrels that are now released through EIA and member countries? This New Yorker essay touches on this idea. During the Iran war the volatile Middle East as a source of oil supplies is a major problem for countries. Some are rationing supplies and in one country 40 million children are not going to school for 2 weeks starting this week because of the sources of oil are so precarious, government offices will only have half of the employees, the rest working from home (almost like Covid pandemic). Many other countries face that situation. The International Energy Agency recently reported that, if “SUVs were an individual country, they would rank sixth in the world for absolute emissions in 2021, emitting over 900 million tonnes of CO2.” The agency says governments must redesign their CAFE standards and their policies so that it would reduce S.U.V. sales, tax gas guzzling vehicles. EIA cites governments in the EU doing this- “Some governments have already started introducing relevant measures, such as France and Germany, which have put a tax on large and high-emissions cars.” Within SUV's also there is an opportunity to reduce the size and make more efficient space utilization designs. Small savings also add up. One has to realize that the current freedom to use energy freely in places like the US with self sufficiency in oil comes with a sense of responsibility for using it wisely so that it can be exported to cut the trade deficit, precisely what the president is doing with India, to cut a trade deficit of $58 billion before it gets to $100 billion. Section 301 is already in place for investigations by the US of 18 countries for a new basis to use tariffs after the Supreme Court decision. A similar approach is taken with EU for hundreds of billions of reductions in trade deficit that will only strengthen the US dollar and the US economy in the long run , and be good for stock markets and jobs as it reduces oil prices and increases the manufacturing capacity/cost for the Nation. Europe, India and China can do the same. Remember that in 2010 SUV's made up 17% of total world sales, and by 2025 SUV's made up 46% of world vehicle sales. This would create another 400 million barrels for the oil markets, which would triple what was released through EIA  this week to 1.2 billion barrels and this would create 120 days of supply replacement for the 10 million b/d lost from Straits of Hormuz, and effectively end the Iran War as it would be clear that prices can be kept low even in the $50's. Essentially buying time till the SU can get more production in Venezuela and other parts of the world to replace much of the Middle Eastern oil that is ending up in a quagmire. This is the best way for the US and Europe, India, China to ensure jobs growth, economic growth with low cost crude oil in the $50 range and ensure much of the poorer countries like Egypt and Indonesia, Vietnam, Sri Lanka, Pakistan, Bangladesh, have access to oil at prices they can afford and eliminate poverty. ...

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With the Biden Infrastructure Act and other infrastructure, science and chips spending of $4 trillion the US needs to act to have oversight on waste and overspending in 2025. We just want to show that it is in the American tradition of democratic government, that an obscure Senator from Missouri initiated such an effort called the Truman Committee when he addressed the Senate on Feb 10, 1941. The US Senate describes this Special committee to Investigate the National Defense Program. As the US prepared to enter World War II in Feb. 1941 an obscure Senator from Missouri rose up in the Senate to call for oversight over the $10.1 billion Roosevelt had got approval from the US Congress to spend on war efforts. The oversight was to fight overspending, waste and fraud in spending the huge amounts dedicated to the war effort. The result was the Truman Committee in the US Senate with as chairman of the committee Harry Truman 1941-1944, James Mead 1944-46, Harley Kilgore 1946-47, Ralph Brewster a Republican from Maine in 1947-48. These were the years when the US spent on the war effort- $330 billion in 1945 dollars, $4 trillion in 2024 dollars $212 in US government borrowings, $136 billion in war bonds With the Biden Infrastructure Act and other infrastructure, science and chips spending of $4 trillion the US needs to act to have oversight on waste and overspending in 2025. ...

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Rising fuel prices are altering buying patterns across airlines, autos, food and other businesses says this report in WSJ. With prices at over $5 a gallon the impact is being felt across the US and other economies. Export of oil from the US for arbitrage opportunities and lack of growth in the shale industry with price volatility, is resulting in shortages of supplies and higher prices. About one fifth of the 8.3% inflation increase in April 2022 in US was from oil price increases. Similar patterns are seen in Europe and other countries. Inflation is expected to last through 2023.

Pent up demand for travel after the pandemic lockdowns means travel by car and by airline is increasing at a time of higher inflation and oil prices. Motorists in the US are making more frequent trips to gas stations as they fill up for a specific dollar amount.

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Former Senator Chuck Hagel of Nebraska, has called for fresh thinking in U.S. foreign policy and foreign engagements after the wars in Iran and Afghanistan cost the U.S. about one trillion dollars. He says the U.S. should avoid single issue engagement, get the participation of other countries, and increase common ground on a host of issues which concern most of the major nations in the world. This is why we have a G-20 and not a G-8, says Hagel. This policy also helps the U.S. by having other countries in Europe, Asia and the Middle East take up some of the responsibilities that would otherwise fall disproportionately on the U.S., and lets the U.S. devote attention to strengthening the domestic economy which underpins strength in world affairs. On Iran he sees continuing talks as the better approach to coming up with a solution, for which he has come under criticism from some Republicans.

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Most of the provinces vote in favor of Milei including Cordoba and Mendoza, Salta and SantaFe. Only Buenos Aires province and two other provinces vote in favor of Sergio Massa, the Peronist candidate. Milei wins by 56% to Massa's 46%. The election is affected by the Peronist party president Fernandez's failure to control inflation that has reached 140%. La Nacion points out that most voters are angry at the political and economic reality, and are not voting for an ideology. In April 2020 one US dollar was worth 80 pesos, in 2023 it is 1000 pesos. Argentine has a chronic problem- repeated bouts of high inflation over 4 decades.

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Trump is getting the support of oil billionaires and oil and gas backers as he decides to ignore climate change completely in favor of "Drill, Baby Drill." Costs of not doing anything for climate change action would accumulate in the absence of action and it could cost the US upwards of 1 trillion dollars in 2028 to fix what was breaking and was ignored for 4 years.

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The U.S. Federal Reserve chairman, Ben Bernanke, will have his first Q&A and press conference on April 27, 2011. This is an effort to reach a broader audience with the Fed's view of the economy, his defense of the $600 billion quantitative easing decision, and views on inflation and the U.S. dollar.

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David Wessel says the U.S. is in a liquidity trap. He says the 500 point drop in the Dow Jones Industrial Averages was a less significant event than the decision by the Bank of New York Mellon to charge clients for keeping large amounts of cash. In a liquidity trap investors are indifferent between keeping their money in cash or in investments providing a return, because interest rates are so low. Today the S&P 500 have in total an estimated $963 billion in cash. The solutions for gettting out of a liquidity trap include government stimulus spending, devaluing the currrency, and generating inflation that could make it easier to reduce government debt. The stimulus approach was adopted in the first 2 years of the Obama administration and there are now increasing pressures to reduce the U.S. deficit. Because of the role of the U.S. dollar as an international currrency and large sovereign holdings of U.S. currency, an outright devaluation of the dollar has not been considered an option. At the same time the weakening of the U.S. currency has helped exports and is encouraged by the Fed and the U.S. government. In a sense all three options are being tried in different degrees and ways. The stimulus was the early response till the deficit concerns began to increase and require attention, the efforts to lower the value of the dollar to increase exports is underway, and the rounds of quantitative easing by the Fed were intended to produce inflation (and avert deflation). All with limited success....

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Koch Industries which is built on oil is investing heavily in electric batteries. The company has made 10 investments of over 750 million dollars in the US battery supply chain and electric vehicles in 2021-2022. This money is coming at a critical time for many new battery company startups.

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Better management of the economy has sustained Russian economic growth in past crises such as in 2008 when oil prices collapsed. Russian central bank chief Nabiullina has helped steer the economy holding US dollar reserves to just 11% the rest of $600 billion reserves in renminbi, euros and gold. Yet the war in Ukraine has introduced limits. With labor shortages and the technological isolation the war in Ukraine is setting new limits on economic growth, says the WSJ. Going forward the limit is about 0.9% economic growth a year. Before 2008 the Russian economy growth was at 7% growth a year, it dropped to 3.5% after the invasion of Crimea in 2014. With China facing deflationary trends, little recovery in growth, this shows that geopolitical tensions are changing the prospects of important economies. With globalization dimming the prospects of Singapore and UK have suffered. The US is investing in growth, and Germany is following the US model.

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The European central bank increases interest rates by quarter percentage point taking the deposit rate to 3.5%. The US Fed held off on increases. The US Fed started early with its increase in interest rates and maintained a steady posture with 8 interest rate increases over 2022-2023 in a period of just over 12 months. It has strengthened the dollar against the euro. The slow response of the ECB and price gouging in Europe has worsened the inflation picture there. The US Fed's policy combined with consumers resisting price gouging by halting purchases from stores, untangling of supply chains, the Biden administration's series of actions to tackle the cost of living increases, and overall investment in the economy that keeps employment resilient including government investment for the first time, is creating a better economy for America than most of the last two decades. 

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Corporate concentration with larger companies, each more dominant in its industry, and fewer companies controlling half of U.S. corporate profits, are trends economists say that hurt wages, create income inequality, shrink the middle class and lead to less consumer welfare. About 30 companies control half of U.S. corporate profits in 2018 compared to 109 in 1975, according to economists at the University of Arizona. Fewer companies in each industry mean less competition for workers, and less leverage for workers in setting wages. Apple Computer just reached the trillion dollar size and Amazon is close to doing this with its dominance in online shopping. Amazon is known for lower wages in its industry. Apple has some of the highest profit margins in  industry, and trends show the margins have risen between cost of making a product and price in an unprecedented way. The result is higher corporate profits and labor commanding a declining share of the nation's wealth. ...

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China's current account surplus has declined to 2.8% of GDP for 2011 from about 10% in 2007, and will be around 2.3% of GDP in 2012, according to IMF estimates. The U.S. current account deficit is down to 3.1% of GDP from 5.1%. By controlling the exchange rate China was able to keep the competitiveness of its exports, resulting in a five fold increase in exports from 2000 to 2010, according to the IMF. The decline could be temporary say experts, as the the recession in Europe and the U.S. resulted in slowing exports, with its infrastructure buildup sucking in imports of machinery and other goods from the western countries at an accelerated pace with its 2009 stimulus measures. Another reason is that in the last decade China has developed its own high tech and other companies which will now increase exports. IMF forecasts show a pickup in China's trade surplus to 4.25% by 2017. This could be lower if the renminbi is allowed to appreciate. Estimates of appreciation of the renminbi are 8 percent in nominal terms since June 2010 against the dollar. Including inflation, which is higher in China, the renminbi has appreciated by 13% since June 2010. ...

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When shortages of wheat following the war in Ukraine are causing a crisis in some countries such as Egypt and Africa, there are other unusual changes  as emerging market currencies such as the Brazilian Real and the Chilean Peso, South African Rand are increasing in value. Even with the strengthening of the US dollar the supply chain disruptions are benefiting exporters of soyabeans such as Brazil and Argentina, and copper such as Chile with strengthening of their currencies. The Brazilian Real has strengthened by 13%. The WSJ calls it the sharpest commodities rally in modern trading history. One analyst says this is unusual how emerging market currencies could rally in the first quarter of 2022 with war in Ukraine, supply chain disruption, strengthening dollar reaching almost parity with the euro.  Today this is a positive sign for the Free World in Latin America. Currencies weakening are ones in countries exposed to a sharply slowing Chinese economy and rising energy costs such as Thai Baht and South Korean Won.  Brazil's central bank is also increasing its lending rate to the highest level in 5 years. Other American allies in Eastern Europe such as Poland which has taken in 3 million Ukraine refugees are also seeing a strengthening currency in this new situation. The National Bank of Poland increased its key lending rate by three quarters of a point to 5.25% which has attracted investors to the Polish currency the Zloty. ...