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This editorial in the WSJ points out the dangers to the Republican party in taking the stand on immigraton along the lines suggested by Donald Trump in August 2015- deportation for all illegal immigrants, no birthright citizenship for children of illegal immigrants, and no remittances allowed for illegal immigrants to their home countries. It points out that remittances actually improve the economies of the countries south of the U.S. border in Latin America and reduce illegal immigration. There is a need for seasonal workers in farm areas where there is a severe shortage of workers even at $17 an hour. Reducing immigration is better accomplished by more guest worker programs. A likely result would be the move of farms and factories to regions with low cost labor in Latin America or other countries. For the Republican Party this type of policy would bring back the period of the 1920's, says the WSJ, when Irish and Italian immigration was opposed by the party, alienating the two ethnic groups till they were won back in the Reagan period- a sure way to lose in 2016....

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Ruth Marcus looks at the assumptions behind Romney's tax plan and questions whether simplifying the tax system with lower rates would help create the climate for higher economic growth and lower unemployment. Much of the differences between Republicans and Democrats revolve around this assumption, a core belief on one side and skepticism on the other. An effort to obtain a bipartisan assessment was made with the Simpson-Bowles commission recommendations, which advised closing loopholes and reducing deductions. The work done by Martin Feldstein on the Romney Tax plan builds on this approach of limiting deductions, and reducing taxes across the board. An issue for Democrats is inequality. Lower wages to improve competitiveness in manufacturing industry is a trend in Republican and Democratic administrations, because of the effort to improve U.S. competitiveness against other trading nations and has played a large part in lowering incomes in manufacturing oriented midwest and eastern states. The other cause of increasing inequality is the housing crisis and the effects on the economy through foreclosures and unemployment. The housing crisis developed under a Republican administration, and the lack of effective measures to prevent foreclosures under the last 4 years of a Democratic administration worsened the economic condition of the middle class, and especially so for minorities. During the housing and foreclosure crisis the proposals put forward by Republicans Martin Feldstein, a Harvard economist, and Sheila Bair, head of the FDIC who calls herself a "populist from Kansas," for bold government help to homeowners under water would have helped the middle class financially, and especially minorities, far more than the efforts of the Democratic Obama administration, and under Feldstein's plan even turned aound the housing market and boosted a recovery. Trends in world trade and industry have large effects outside what administrations of either party can control, and a lot depends on the temperament, wisdom and leadership provided....

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Letters to the WSJ ask the question -why are these thousands of good old boys given carte blanche, given a sort of impunity,  for immoral even criminal behaviour involving women? Readers ask is this the right response or must society move forward and hold all leaders to a higher standard. Other readers compare this to the election with candidate Goldwater which pulled down the whole Republican party.

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Russian proposals for settlement in Ukraine including giving up the whole eastern Donbass region, recognizing Crimea as part of Russia, and limiting its army and long range weapons. These are the same conditions set in 2022. There is a new situation developing in Europe as Germany, France, Britain and most of Eastern Europe looks to be firm in support of Ukraine. Germany is stepping up its military preparedness under chancellor Merz of the CDU led coalition government. The US under DJT is working under two pathways seeking engagement with Russia and at the same time seeking a way to settle the Ukraine conflict. With German, British and EU support it appears unlikely that Ukraine would agree to all the Russian terms as Russia is using some gains on the war front to gain a clear win in 2025. By 2026 with European support Ukraine may look for a settlement that offers better terms than currently offered by Russia. For the US DJT faces pressures from within the Republican party that would oppose giving Russia a win after its role as the aggressor in the Ukraine conflict, and after the bombing destruction of Ukraine's cities.   ...

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What does Business in the Republican party think of J.D. Vance?   WSJ says the book "Hillbelly Elegy" is about cultural dysfunction not globalization or economic dislocation. Vance's book is about growing up in Appalachian part of Ohio around 2000. Lyrarc Retrospect shown on this page has a Wash.Post report of Robert Kennedy's visit in 1968 to poverty stricken Appalachian rural America in eastern Kentucky.  Running through Pennsylvania and Ohio to Tennessee. Mostly rural, mountainous low income and lacking roads, highways, and lacking schools, medical clinics. JFK and LBJ as presidents in the 1960's setup the Appalachian Regional Commission to lift it out of poverty. It increased income growth modest 4% above neighboring counties. Bush and Obama wars left this region and rural regions across the US neglected till Biden pulled out of Afghanistan and made rural America a top priority with the hundreds of millions of dollars needed to invest in it. It is as tough to tackle as the poverty in a similar forested and hilly part of eastern India called Orissa and Chattisgarh, which is only now receiving the attention of prime minister Modi in his third term. WSJ says J.D. Vance called mere rhetoric as no answer to such intractable problems in his Yale days, calling mere reference to cultural issues and immigration as forms of cultural heroin that would do little to change the centuries old poverty of the region.  Of the 39 year old senator J.D. Vance migration to MAGA, WSJ says it reminds them of Obama with only 2 years experience in the Senate- Vance has only a little over a year- who with lack of experience contested for the presidency of the US only to find Republicans poking Obama for seeking the presidency with such insignificant experience. This led to one of the least effective presidencies for lack of bipartisan support similar to that of Bush, both distracted by wars neither had the wisdom to not enter in the first place or to end quickly.   ...

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A mid-July 2011 CBS poll on where Tea party supporters stand on raising the debt ceiling and on a balanced deficit reduction approach combining tax increases and spending cuts. This poll shows 66% of Tea Party supporters saying Republicans in Congress should compromise on their positions to reach an agreement to raise the debt ceiling. Only 31% said they should stick to their positions even if this meant not reaching an agreement. On a balanced approach 53% said it should be the path taken including tax increases and spending cuts for a solution to deficits, and 45% said only spending cuts was the right way. This shows a more flexible Tea Party than is presented in the media reports and strident statements of politicians.

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Republican Speaker Johnson is setting Saturday April 20, 2024 votes in the US Congress for Ukraine-Israel aid in a weekend vote, as Israel and Ukraine face growing threats. Basically the bill Democrats passed in the Senate gets split up into 3 parts for that $95 billion in aid bill to be voted on individually for each part separately for Ukraine, for Israel, for Taiwan. A fourth bill would be for Ukraine aid as a loan, and a measure leading to national ban on TikTok.

"We're not the world's policeman, but we are going to do the right thing. And I think Congress is going to take an important stand."

"We have improved the process and policy. Every member of Congress gets to vote his conscience."

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The work in the US Congress in the hands of Senator Schumer and Representative Pelosi to get the Biden plan for families and workers approved. This means pulling in all members of Congress from the Democratic Party to support president Biden's plan and winning some Republican support.

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Mitch Smith of the NYT looks at the Grand Rapids area for the 2024 election. Grand Rapids is atownof 660,000  which is the second largest city in Michigan. Originally populated by Dutch settlers it now has about 10% Hispanics in addition to about 10% blacks. The Hispanic population has increased over time. Some Republicans such as Ben Ingrebretson have drifted away from the party and voted for Biden in 2020. In February he voted for Nikki Haley, part of the 34% who voted for Haley in Kent County. He approves of Biden's view of America as "a beacon" for the world but does not approve of stimulus spending or forgiveness of student loans. Grand Rapids is also the area where governor Gretchen Whitmer, a Democrat, went to school and which gave her a 10 percentage vote margin.

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The defeat of Eric Cantor in a Republican primary in 2014, by David Brat, a professor of economics at Randolph-Macon College of Ashland, Virgina. Brat did this with just $200,000 and the support of local talk show person Laura Ingraham, compared to $5.4 million raised by Cantor. Brat did this without national Tea party support, depending more on local activism in a conservative district, and the sentiment locally for Anybody but Cantor (ABC). This shows how quickly sentiment on the ground can change, as Cantor had previously won primaries with much as 79% of the vote in an area stretching from Richmond to the Washington suburbs.

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Samuelson points out that the golden age of bipartisan harmony never existed. Yet it is true to say that with the constant chatter on cable television and stridently expressed views, the activism of the more extreme wings of both American parties, and the role of money in politics, the partisan nature of politics in America has increased. And this is happening even when the Gallup polls from 1992 and 2010 show similiar numbers for the people who describe themselves as Conservative, Liberal or Moderate, showing that the people themselves haven't changed (42-43% Conservative, 35-36% Moderate, 17-20% Liberal), but activism at the edges of both parties has. In this condition, only 7% of americans have a "very positive view" of the Republican party, only 11% of Americans have a "very positive view" of the Democratic party and only 12% of Americans have a "very positive view" of the Tea party (even though the Tea party is at the height of its mometum). The net impact says Samuelson is that the nation's important problems get neglected. There is little discussion about the expenditure of blood and treasure in Afghanistan, says Tom Brokaw, see his article. There is little discussion of the need to rebuild America's deteriorating infrastructure. Or a serious discussion on deficits or energy. All this is lost in the dysfunctional politics of the moment. This is a significant observation....

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This NYT report says there is scandal fatigue among Republicans and a sense about Mr. Trump that his time has passed. Much of the political gains made by Mr. Trump in 2017 were a result of the failures of president Bush within the Republican party wasting national resources on 2 remote wars while infrastructure was neglected, and the neglect of manufacturing communities in the US with jobs outsourced to China that presidents Bush and Obama failed to stop. With president Biden ending these wars period. And with Mr. Biden getting the legislation passed to put workers and families, American manufacturing, American infrastructure to the top of the agenda, the focus has shifted to China and Russia two countries that gained during the largely failed Clinton, Bush and Obama presidencies. The Ukraine war and China's belligerence over Taiwan remain an ever present risk. President Biden has articulated American resolve in this situation in a way that matches another president Harry Truman when he addressed the Soviet expansion in Berlin, then Greece, then across Eastern Europe, not seeking conflict yet not shirking responsibility for the free world. It is this new context in which the sordid affairs of a political outsider are presented to the ordinary American struggling to make a living during a cost of living crisis in 2023. ...

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Biden is going back to the coalition of support both north and south and younger and older white voters of  the Democratic party and Republicans under Teddy Roosevelt and Dwight Eisenhower that prevailed for most of the last 100 years except for the period after Reagan which included Clinton and Obama in the Republican style policies just as TR and Eisenhower followed Democrat type policy. It is the broad centre of the Nation. Nate Cohn shows that this is what is happening and Biden holds firm in the support he is getting from white and older white voters. It also will give the Nation opportunity to take a breather from all the culture wars whipped up for no purpose as it is about US leadership in the world and a better life for its people with new infrastructure and science/manufacturing leadership. This also means Biden has strong support in his near home state Pennsylvania, in Michigan and in Wisconsin in addition to growing support in a broad section. of southern states which was the situation for Franklin Roosevelt and Harry Truman and John F. Kennedy/LBJ. Many forget LBJ was from Texas and Sam Houston was one of the heroes in Kennedy's Profiles of Courage with his support for the Nation. ...

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Turkish Opposition alliance leader Kilicdaroglu, a civil servant who has acted with humility throughout his career leading the Republican party founded by Kemal Ataturk in 1923, says he will bring Turkey back into the European fold. He would do this by strengthening NATO and Turkey's participation in NATO, admitting Sweden, and by seeking membership in the European Union. He tells a huge crowd in Istanbul:   "There are 5.3 million people who will go to the ballot box for the first time and cast their votes, and they want freedom and democracy... This fact is very important for us, for Turkey, for the European Union of which we are trying to be a member, and for western civilization." The last line "for western civilization" is striking as Turkey now and its younger generation sees itself as part of western civilization, of the EU and the US. Modernization of Turkey happened after Kemal Ataturk became president in 1923 and Turkey's identity has been forged as part of Europe in the twentieth century. It is now returning to its roots from the period before the Renaissance in Europe. ...

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Speaker Mike Johnson says democracy is "messy," as Rep. Greene of Georgia calls for a resolution for him to step down for violating a rule that no legislation would be brought up that lacks majority support. Only 101 Republican members of the House supported it less than half. How then would the funding of the federal government its departments of defense, homeland security, education, health, operate as the deadline for funding it is tonight? This is left unsaid. One can see the Senate and House live on C-SPAN television at this very moment. It appears that the older senior members of the Republican party have not done a good job of talking to their younger less experienced colleagues and building agreement, that the mediocrity of leadership in both parties for the past three decades, even four, is the cause. Unstable politics in the Republican party as it is split with older senior members on  one side and younger many first time elected organized by the Freedom Caucus group on the other.  Many are from the Southern states and some from rustbelt midwest showing the deep divides that still shape the US. Democrat Steny Hoyer the House Minority leader who has worked in Congress for over 40 years called it on the House floor, and he said its a harsh word delaying and "dissemble." Democrats call for compromise to govern, the compromise was finally reached today March 22 to pass the $1.2 trillion spending bill with something for each side or somethings that both sides wanted, funding at border and child care. ...

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Russian offers for settlement of Ukraine conflict in 2025 described as capitulation in the UK's Guardian- all of the eastern Donbass region and Crimea ceded to Russia, limits on its army and its long range weapons, leaving it too weak to defend itself. The UK, France oppose it. The new German government of CDU's Merz is increasing Germany's defense capabilities to shoulder the burden of defence in the EU in 2025-2026. Under this situation and with presure within the Republican party on DJT, it is unlikely that such a capitulation or agreement is likely to have a chance  for agreement. It is a restatement of Russian proposals in 2022.

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Michigan Governor Gretchen Whitmer interview by NYT's Lulu Navarro looks at the swing state of Michigan and its popular governor. Asked about president president Biden's 3 trillion dollar investments in Manufacturing, in Chips and Science, in Infrastructure, Whitmer says the public is still just coming out of the pandemic and has seen only some of the beneficial effects of this program of massive investment in the US economy. She says it is similar to what she heard from Michiganders which amounted to "Governor Fix the Dam Roads." She says the former president Trump lacks any such vision for the US economy, and for the future. Of the present time Whitmer says that the pandemic has taken a toll in people's lives, people are stressed out, and just hanging in there trying to pay the grocery bills, get the kids to school, and show up at work. They have hardly the time to figure out what the CHIPS Act means. Whitmer is in her second term as governor and comes from the western part of the state around Grand Rapids which is traditionally Republican. In her election for governor she was able to win with good margins in this western part of the State even as a Democrat. This interview show Whitmer wanting to be able to work with Republicans in the best interests of the state and the Nation. ...

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This report in the NYT says a little known donation raising method used by the Republican National Senatorial Committee may affect Republican chances of taking control of the Senate in the US. The method is considered part of hyper aggressive methods that ask people provocative questions such as "Should Biden resign?" in millions of text messages sent out and asked to reply click YES to Donate, the amount is then processed immediately, says NYT. It was so controversial that WinRed the main Republican donation processing platform banned the practice. It appeared to be working earlier but with the cost of living crisis in 2022 donors are holding back. NYT says the digital ads to get these donations cost more than the donations in some situations. It cost $23.3 million for digital ads and expenses and raised only $6.1 million leading to a $17 million deficit, according to NYT. Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell now thinks it could affect chances for the Senate. The NSRC Republican group has $23 million about half what the Democrats have. ...

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Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell says he doesn't yet have the necessary votes to stop Democrats from calling for witnesses. Democrats want former presidential National Security Adviser Mr. Bolton to testify under oath about the president's motivations for freezing aid to Ukraine. During three day of presentations by Mr. Trump's defense legal team the focus of Pat Philbin and Alan Dershowitz was on the actions of the president on Ukraine policy not rising to the level of Abuse of Power and Obstruction of Justice that Democrats in the House have presented as the 2 Articles for impeachment. Earlier the White House legal team put the focus on Mr. Biden, and his son Hunter Biden's role in the Ukrainian company Burisma as a board member. Burisma was being investigated for corruption by Ukrainian prosecutors. Much of the defense presentation recalled the effort during the early days after the Civil War to impeach president Andrew Johnson simply because Republicans in Lincoln's party did not like Mr. Johnson's views on Reconstruction of the South, and his dismissal of Mr. Stanton, the Secretary of War. That effort failed because it lacked one additional vote needed for a two thirds majority in the Senate. Republicans say not only are the president's actions on Ukraine calling for an investigation of the Biden's not an impeachable offense as "a high crime," but also that Democrats dislike of Mr. Trump just as Republican dislike for Mr. Johnson was lowering the bar for impeachment by making malleable charges. They argued that one of the country's founders Mr. Mason even rejected the idea presented to him that "maladministration" as grounds for impeachment should be put in the Constitution for the very same reason, that it was malleable to a preconceived notion of what is wrong. Four Republican senators Gardner of Colorado, McSally of Arizona, Tillis of North Carolina and Collins of Maine face tight races in upcoming elections, and may decide in favor of a compromise for the calling of witnesses. This would allow Republicans to call Mr. Biden and Hunter Biden to testify, and Democrats to call Mr. Bolton to testify on his views expressed in his to be published book that the president withheld aid to Ukraine because he felt that corruption needed to be investigated.   ...

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This editorial in the WSJ after the U.S. presidential election is critical of extreme positions on immigration in the Republican party. It reminds readers that George W. Bush won 40% of the Hispanic vote with some passable Spanish and a friendly attitude on immigration, Romney managed only 29%. It says supporting immigration is a natural position for Republicans because most immigrants are culturally conservative and hard working. It call deportation in large numbers morally wrong and not workable. It also comes as immigration from Mexico is down significantly and many Hispanics are returning to Mexico. Hispanics suffered from the high unemployment in the U.S. following the 2008 crisis making it less attractive to come to the U.S. Growth is also increasing in Mexico with a large middle class and a falling birth rate.

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Under the Volcker Rule setup during the global financial crisis of 2008-2009, banks total investments in private equity, hedge funds and similar higher risk funds cannot exceed 3% of high quality capital. During the financial crisis investment banks were highly leveraged leading to the collapse of Bear Stearns and Lehman Brothers, and the precarious financial condition of other banks. Goldman has pared down about 60% of such investments. Remaining are $4.8 billion in private equity investments, $1.2 billion in real estate, and about $1.1 billion in both credit and hedge funds. Regulators have given the bank till July 2017 to comply. As banks recovered from the impact of the crisis, the tearing of the social fabric that happened with high unemployment in some groups especially older white men, has remained six years after the crisis- as evident in the U.S. election campaigns this year. As a result the mood has shifted for tighter regulation and both party platforms, Republican and Democratic, now call for reinstatement of the Glass Steagall Act, which separated commercial banking from investment banking as part of the lessons learned from the Great Depression. Volcker, was chairman of the U.S. Federal Reserve during the Carter administration, known for taking a tough line against inflation. He was the principal driver of the move to restrict banks from risky activity, and faced considerable opposition from banks during the 2009-2013 period when the rule was being formulated.  ...

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David Brooks on the candidacy for U.S. President of Senator Rick Santorum. He says Santorum genuinely represents the working class- a grandson of a coal miner and the son of Italian immigrants who has represented workers of the steel manufacturing region of western Pennsylvania. Santorum has pushed hard in this campaign largely ignored by the media. He has visited 370 towns riding in a pickup truck trying to cover as much ground as possible and talking with great conviction about his positions distant from the corporate and financial wings of the Republican party, about family, and communities. Bring someone like Sherrod Brown of Ohio together with someone like Rick Santorum and you have good representation of the working class across the political spectrum to win this election for the working class of America, says Brooks, who sees this as a lot better alternative today than Harvard Law.

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Young people in Turkey are troubled by many things says this DW video report. DW.com talks with young people on the streets of Istanbul. Young people are troubled by the cost of living with inflation out of control, with not being able to speak their mind, with the waning prospects with many unemployed. Kilicdaroglu, a civil servant who leads the Republican party founded by Ataturk in 1923, offers Turkey a new path with the western alliance and the nations of Europe and the US.

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Senior Republicans Wicker and McConnell both push for the putting pieces of the defense puzzle in place so that American can offer leadership to the world in the 21st century. Biden has put pieces of the puzzle on the economic front, these are the pieces in defense and security. On D-Day 80 senior Republican leader Mitch McConnell cautions against the lethargy of so called left parties and the isolationist tendencies of so called right parties. He says America should put preparedness first, that the better part of valor is to build credible defenses before they are necessary so that American leadership is not doubted further as it has been before. He commends the plan put forward by Roger Wicker in the US Congress Senate Armed Services Committee. The plan calls for raising defense spending to about 5% from 2.9% now over 5-7 years, with $55 billion more in 2025. Wicker says the military has a backlog of $180 billion just for maintenance. For the Navy 357 new ships by 2035, for the Air Force 340 additional fighters. This in light of China's additions and in light of the Russian economy being put into a position for a long term conflict with NATO over Ukraine.  ...

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Seib of the WSJ compares the Reagan election in 1980 with Trump's bid in 2016. He finds the idea of an outsider when the public mood was for change favoring Trump, but says the comparison with Reagan falls short because Reagan had behind him 8 years as governor of the largest state in the country, and a bid for the nomination 4 years earlier. He also had personal positive approval ratings of about 70 percent compared to 27 percent for Trump.  Reagan's first trp after the convention in 1980 was to Alabama to win the support of George Wallace people in the Deep South. His focus was on reuniting all parts of the Republican Party something absent in 2016. Seib's comment about Trump being stronger on the economy is not clear. With the economy recovering, and slowing down as the presidential election approaches amid increasing uncertainty, it is possible that voters would not want to risk abrupt and sudden changes with an untested candidate. Working class voters could still see some of their concerns for change addressed by the Bernie Sanders part of the Democratic platform with help in college tution, addressing wage concerns, and opposing export of jobs, when Trump's program gives few specifics. Another difference between Reagan and Trump is that Reagan had put together an economic team under Shultz which was able to win credibility with an actual plan to implement in the first 100 days. ...