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Dexter Filkins shows here how something is changing that may have been missed by American commanders and the new US administration- the evidence of a crumbling and unpopular feudal structure that the British maintained in Afghanistan to continue the imperial presence, and which has remained that way under the government of Pakistan for the last 50 years. Baitullah Mehsud and other Taliban leaders are from the lower strata of society, the porters and street cleaners and other occupations. The British operated through the malik system of tribal elders who were supposed to maintain order, and the British pretty much left them alone. The Pathan or Pastun people on both sides of the border between Pakistan and Afghanistan are going through some major social changes that are pent up for centuries. The malik system is beiing destroyed on one hand , and on the other hand the Taliban enjoy support among ordinary people in Pathan country as being good Muslims, and in parts of Pakistan itself. This creates a dangerous mix for American forces, popular sentiment of the lower strata and ordinary Afghans, with clandestine support from Islamist officers within the Pakistan army and intelligence services for more sophisticated warfare. Which only means that disproportionate resources would be needed for an expanded American project in Afghnistan, without much to offer in return....

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Sharing the waters of the Indus river system means— the ‘Eastern Rivers’, namely Sutlej, Beas and Ravi, for India, and the ‘Western Rivers’ of Indus, Jhelum, and Chenab for Pakistan. Indus Waters Treaty changes proposed by India include bilateral not international arbitration for Indian dam building plans, and using water storage optimally on its side for the western rivers.

The western rivers have four times the water as eastern rivers and dam building technology has evolved over 75 years. The Indus Water Treaty was written by civil engineers but its international arbitration and three levels need to be replaced with bilateral settlement so that India can go ahead with dam building for development without Pakistan simply stalling everything, which serves no purpose for modernization.

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The view from Pakistan, the views of the oppossition parties, the army, the Intelligence agency, on American aid to Pakistan and increaed involvement in the country's affairs. Some likened it to akind of colonization attempt. Politicains of some political parties oppose a large new embassy in Islamabad for the USA and a consultate in Peshawa, Northwest Frontier Province. Ambassador Patterson said that Pakistan should eliminate the Afghan Taliban leader Mullah Omar who is supposed to be in Baluchistan, or America would do what was needed, and National Securtiy Advisor Jones said that addressing the Quaeda sancturies in Afghanistan was the next step. The head of the Intelligence agency Shuja Pasha met with CIA officails last week in Washington and argued against sending more troops to Afghanistan. And the Army chief Kalyani said that missile drone attacks in Baluchistan as the AMericans impled would not be allowed.

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Azam Ahmedjan provides this insightful account of how the Taliban in 2015 has changed. It is no longer the old Taliban the U.S. faced following 9/11 attacks. The aging leadership in Patkistan no longer has the same level of control in Afghanistan. The older Taliban leadership inside Afghanistan has been killed in fighting with American led forces and drone strikes, leaving younger, less disciplined and fractured groups inside Afghanistan. This is the Taliban the American supported government faces. Most importantly the expectations of the Afghan people have changed. This makes it harder to negotiate a peace agreement with fractured Taliban groups on the ground. It also creates new opportunities for integrating Afghanistan into the fabric of South Asian society, as people in India and Pakistan are eager to see modernization, building of infrastructure, education, healthcare, and better standards of living after years of conflict.

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It might not all make sense that the Pakistan/China mediated ceasefire conditions (including US and Israeli condition of no nuclear weapons development and ballistic missile development) are really not known even in the media today, only known to the Iranian government and the US government. In these conditions Iran's government gets to show that it had achieved its goals, even with enormous reconstruction costs of the damage done during the war. DJT had pointed to a sort of regime change in Iran after most of the earlier leadership has been removed, and new leaders in place who are keen on setting up conditions for their own administration replacing the old one.  Over the period 2027-2030 the prospect is real that China, India and Japan may shift their oil supplies sources to other regions, increase conservation per unit of GDP, and increase supplies of renewable energy, steps already taken by Germany over the last decade. Most media looks only what happens today and in 2026. This may be the last of the Middle East Wars before Europe and the US, and India, China, Japan shift away from the Middle East to get supplies of fossil fuels, and it may bring new renewables technologies that reduce the dependence on fossil fuels to the point of making a true transition to renewable energy. It may also be the last of the Middle East Wars in the sense that people of European nations and the US insist on no involvement in MIddle East as a sort of quagmire for squandering American, European and Asian vital resources of people and capital, ample example being given over the last 40 years. Considering the costs of the war and the moral cost of destroying infrastructure such as power plants that hurt the local population more than the regime in power, China, Japan, the US, and EU, India may find it is easier to race each other in coming up with alternative supplies and shifting to renewable energy faster than planned, making Middle Eastern oil supplies  and volatility in prices redundant, which would be a good thing after the hugely negative and costly experience of the last 50 years of dependence.     ...

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Nawaz Sharif's government's handling of foreign affairs and the armed forces is taken away by the Pakistan military in August 2014. Disagreements between the military and Sharif on the prosecution of former president Musharraf led to increased tensions.

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Severe damage to Pakistan's agricultural sector in the monsoon floods of 2022. Half of the cotton crop is destroyed say officials, and large part of the rice crop. The wheat planting is affected at a time when there are shortages of wheat in the world.

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India changes its position on Kashmir and shows willingness to discuss the issue in peace talks for the first time. Opening the borders in Kashmir for trade in goods between the two countries is one of the topics for discussion. Opening of borders with Pakistan for goods trade is helping set the climate for new negotiations.

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Thomas Friedman sees the WikiLeaks information showing America paying the Pakistan army and intelligence services to be two-faced, to both fight with the Americans and at the same time support the insurgents fighting the Americans. He sees America being made the sucker in this game. And without the resources to change the region and transform it, America needs a better approach that does not waste its resources and energies.

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Dexter Filkins points out how the Pakistan army and ISI officers are running affairs in Pakistan. And the army and ISI officers are playing a double game both supporting the Taliban and using American dollars to finance it, and at the same time obtaining American financial aid to fight the Taliban. Never quite finishing off the Taliban in its shows of force, keeping it alive to obtain American financial aid. Filkins confirms this by talking to a malik or tribal elder from the old feudal structure, and to independent Taliban commanders who operate outside the control of Baitullah Mehsud. He calls it Playing the Game.

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Richard Haas, President of the Council on Foreign Relations, points to the need to reallocate the resources that are tied down in Afghanistan, to other needs in the area of national security. This especially true he says, considering the limited US interests in Afghanistan and the other threats in national security that the US needs to address around the world. He points to the grave threat to national security arising from the US deficit and the country's finances, with the $125 billion allocated to Afghanistan being a significant contributor to this. Savings in Afghanistan can be used to strengthen defense needs in other areas such as North Korea and Iran , modernization, and for reducing the deficit. He sees the resources spent in Afghnistan being a strategic distraction when other threats are building with nuclear developments in Iran and N. Korea. He cites the intelligence findings that the situation in Afghanistan will not improve with the Taliban connections in Pakistan, and the lack of a good partner in the government there. As for Pakistan, Haas says that the situation there is not to be understood through Afghanistan. The threats there are not external, they come from deep divisions within Pakistani society, and poor governance for most of the period since independence in 1947. The US should scale down to counter terrorism operations with a smaller force closer to the troops before the surge of 30,000, and not engage in the state-building that it is currently doing. On the efforts by Gen. Petraeus to get more resources, Haas says Petraeus is looking at the situation from the area of operations in Afghanistan, whereas the President has a different role. The President has to address all the challenges the US is facing now and will face in the near and medium term future, and he has to do this with the limited resources available for national security....

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Detailed account of who the Taliban leaders in Afghanistan and Pakistan are, their manner and tactics. The situation now on the ground with the Taliban and their statements and strategy.

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Pakistan's foreign currrency reserves of $8.14 billion as of Sept 27 and falling for 14 straight weeks, falling from $16.39 billon in November 2007, are creating a situation in which Pakistan may have to turn to the IMF for emergency assistance. Especially because this covers hardly 2 months of imports of food and oil.

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Norman Borlaug who achieved what seems impossible, saving hundreds of millions of lives through disease resistant wheat and rice plants that he developed to double the yield in Mexico, India, Pakistan and other countries.

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Nawaz Sharif allies himself with the lawyers movement which has popular support in the country. With all the chaotic politics and military's role in politics, the rule of law is seen by many as the best way for the people of Pakistan to have a better future. Ifthikar Chaudhary is reinstated as Chief Justice of the Supreme Court.

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New details emerge on how India informed Pakistan that only terrorist bases were targets not the Pakistan military. India's Foereign Minister Jaishankar says this was to make clear that only terrorist bases would be struck in response to the terrorist attack in Pahalgam on tourists. This was to be careful so that deescalatory steps could be taken. When Pakistan chose to attack military targets in India India did the same on military targets and air defense systems in Pakistan were taken out. At that point India insisted that for a stop to the war Pakistan's general would call India's general to end the war, which is what happened. Jaishankar made it clear that US Marco Rubio of JD Vance complied with India's request to the US that only after the Pakistan general called the Indian general would the conflict be stopped as India had not targeted Pakistan military.

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S. Jaishankar, Indian Foreign Minister speaks at the University of Delhi on his chapter in the new book Modi@20 Dreams meet Delivery. He also discusses the war in Ukraine, the Indian view on people and shortages created by the war of energy and food, and India's approach to Pakistan and China.

 

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Hanif describes the activist nature of Pakistan's judiciary. This is part of a tradition in Pakistan where the courts have played a role to check executive power in the form of military in the government or political parties in government affected by corruption in the system. Earlier in the last decade the courts acted as a check on the power of Gen. Musharraf. It is now acting as a check on the Sharif government, including a decision removing Sharif as head of the government and the ruling political party. This opinion reflects skepticism about this role. In Pakistan's system the way it has evolved the military, the party elected to government in free elections, and the judiciary, each act as a check on the other, particularly now that Pakistan has experienced for the first time a peaceful transition of power between opposition parties. This is also a  way combined with an an active media and new political parties such as the one formed by a former cricketer Imran Khan, to provide a sense of participation and empowerment for ordinary people. ...