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Aaron Back says this time China is likely to feel the effects of the volatility in the stock markets. The surge in the stock markets added about half a percentage point to GDP growth in the 1st quarter of 2015, according to Capital Economics. GDP growth in the 1st quarter 2015 was 7%. Capital Economics says removing the boost from the stock market to a sluggish economy would mean a loss of 1 percentage point in GDP growth. Equity issuance was one way China hoped to reduce high debt levels at companies, and that avenue would the be that much harder to access to reduce debt levels. Margin financing is about $354 billion, or 3.5% of GDP according to Goldman Sachs, posing another source of problems and potentially affecting growth if stock losses lead to defaults. Declining investor sentiment and confidence in management of the economy would be another casualty in this situation. Only 10% of Chinese households own stocks compared to 50% in the U.S., yet Aaron Back says the effects of this are likely to be felt in lower economic growth and shaken confidence in the economy....

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The CSU wins 36.4% of the vote in Bavaria and the populist Free Voters gains ground with 15.3%. Both will continue the government in Bavaria. The AfD advanced in Bavaria to 16%. The CDU wins 34.5% of the vote in Hesse, with the city of Frankfurt in Hesse. CDU will continue to form a government in Hesse. The AfD won 18% of the vote in Hesse. The FDP got less than 5% threshhold for representation and the Social Democrats went from 19% to 15% in Hesse. The economy and immigration played a part in the losses of the Social Democrats and FDP.

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U.S. GDP increased by 1.5% in the second quarter of 2012. This is down from 2% in the first quarter of 2012.

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Martin Feldstein points out why the recent agreement for a "fiscal compact" is no more than an empty statement about fixing the eurozone's finances. In this respect it is no different than the Stability and Growth Pact it replaces, with serious weaknesses. Feldstein cites the weaknesses in the language of the agreement. Each eurozone country is required to limit its"cyclically adjusted" budget deficit to 0.5% of GDP and bring its debt down to 60% of GDP. Compliance will be performed by the European Court of Justice and fines imposed. In practice the questions loom large- for a country like Spain with a 23% unemployment rate, isn't all of the 6% budget deficit cyclical? Again the agreement says deficits are calculated "net of one-off and temporary measures." Under this provision a lot of the stimulus programs would be considered in the category of "one-off." Other language lets eurozone countries frame budgets based on "exceptional circumstances" and "periods of severe economic downturn." Italy has declining economic growth, does it make sense to have a large budget surplus in that situation to lower debt to GDP, and how does that goal relate to "exceptional circumstances."...

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Japan's GDP fell by 7.8% in the second quarter of 2020 compared with previous quarter. By comparison for U.S. economy GDP was down 9.5% for that quarter. In Japan the increase in the national sales tax from 8% to 10% in October 2019 had already caused a contraction in the economy. It is uncertain how much the second wave of the pandemic will affect the economic recovery.

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Andhra Pradesh on India's southeast coastline with 25 parliament seats and Bihar in India's north and east with 40 parliament seats and long history of being part of the BJP led National Democratic Alliance are now key to a five year term for prime minister Modi in India. Modi's BJP party won 240 seats out of 543 in parliament.  Chandrababu Naidu of Telegu Desam Party won 135 seats in the state Assembly election in Andhra Pradesh (NDA), all but 18 seats. It wins 22 of 25 seats in India's parliament (NDA). It also shows the wide swings in Indian elections that no party is safe. Telgu Desam Party (NDA)  won on the platform of a double engine government at state and federal levels to create jobs and modernize its rural agricultural economy. In the last 2019 election the Opposition YSRCP party won almost all the seats in the state assembly and in 2024 lost almost all the seats. In 1995 Telegu Desam Party joined Atal Bihari Vajpayee's BJP to form a government and during elections that followed for Vajpayee's 5 year term (1999-2004) he was part of the NDA. He has served three terms as chief minister of Andhra Pradesh, two terms before Telengana was formed and one term after Telengana split off from Andhra Pradesh. Andhra Pradesh is centered around the Vizag region on India's south eastern coastline and the cities of Vijayawada and Guntur with a 1000 kilometer coastline on Bay of Bengal. ...

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Japan's GDP growth is at an annualized pace of 3.5% for the 1st quarter of 2013.

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Britain's GDP growth was at an annualized pace of 2.0% for the fourth quarter of 2014, with full year 2014 growth at 2.6%, according to the Office of National Statistics. This was the highest annual growth rate since 2007.

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Lower oil prices are reflected in the lower foreign trade numbers for the U.S., but something else is happening in the way foreign trade is declining globally. Citigroup Economist Wieting estimates that the drop in exports in October if sustained across the quarter would have taken 2.2 points from GDP, a bigger hit than declining consumer spending that makes up 70% of GDP.

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Shinjiro Koizumi 44 years, and Sanae Takaichi 64 years, contending for leadership of LDP and prime minister in Japan in September 2025, as prime minister Shigeru Ishiba resigns. LDP in Japan faces problems from aging voter base and Japan's voter shifts to nationalist parties. Ishiba faced problems rallying voters as the LDP was seen as having mostly older faces, trade issues with the US, and the cost of living economic security issues.

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This report in WSJ cites the PM's office saying a tax cut just when tourism revenue slowed with the start of the pandemic reduced Sri Lankan government annual revenues by 800 billion rupees. The combined impact of the tax cut with the pandemic relief measures and drop in tourism revenues widened the budget deficit from 9.6% of GDP to 12.2% of GDP in 2020. PM Wickremasinghe has increased VAT from 8% to 12% to generate 65 billion rupees. And an additional 52 billion rupees from increasing corporate tax from 24% to 30%. The ill timed tax cuts and mismanagement of finances are at the roots of the economic crisis.

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One of the changes in 2023 in Germany is the increasing acceptance of the use of the English language as Germany opens up to the world under the Scholz administration. Chancellor Scholz from Hamburg with its close ties to northern Europe and Britain, Foreign Minister Baerbock who studied at the London School of Economics, and Christian Lindner FDP leader from Bonn, use English as an alternative language to reach a broader audience. The FDP and Lindner are pushing for the use of English as an alternative second language in public administration.  DW.com looks at the changes and what they mean for the future and the next generation.

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U.S. GDP growth slowed in the 1st quarter 2015 to seasonally adjusted 0.2%, according to the Commerce Department.

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U.S. GDP growth for the 1st quarter of 2013 was at an annualized pace of 2.5%.

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Shigeru Ishiba was reappointed LDP party secretary-general in Japan. Ishiba served three terms as defence minister, is popular with the rank and file and the public. He has a good grasp of security issues. He will be the No. 2 person in the cabinet after prime minister Shinzo Abe. Ishiba was the first LDP official to give a specific trading range for the yen by publicly calling for a range of 85 to 90 yen to the dollar. The yen closed at about 85 yen to the dollar on Dec. 25, 2012. Two women join Ishiba and Abe in the leadership positions. Seiko Noda is now chairwoman of the party general council. And six term parliamentarian Sanae Takaichi is policy chief for the LDP.

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Japan's hopes of reaching a trade agreement with the US before tariffs of 24% kick in in July are now nil. Upper House elections coming up in Japan mean that the ruling LDP party could lose seats in parliament if it makes any concessions. US sees Japan as stalling in trade negotiations.

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Chinese president Xi Jinping has set strict carbon emissions targets for 2021, in his commitment to achieve peak carbon emissions by 2030 and carbon neutrality by 2060. Power cuts for industry are put in place to meet the targets. A 56% rise in coal prices is also making it less profitable for power plants to generate electricity. This will further reduce Chinese GDP growth. Banks have cut year over year GDP growth for quarters three and four to 4.7% and 3%.

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DJT selects as Treasury Secretary, Scott Bessent, who was Chief Investment Officer for George Soros before starting his own hedge fund. Bessent was investment officer for George Soros when he made the bet against the British sterling currrency. His hedge fund manages $500 million in assets. He supported Mr. Trump in his first bid in 2016 and joined his campaign effort at a time when Nikki Haley was in the primaries. While campaigning he offered economic advice to DJT and said  Trump should strive for 3+3+3 for the economy cutting the deficit to 3% of GDP, 3% GDP growth to reduce the deficit with more tax revenues, and 3 million barrels a day of oil production in the US.

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China's GDP growth for the 4th quarter of 2012 was 7.9% over prior year, increasing from 7.4% in the third quarter of 2012, according to the National Bureau of Statistics. GDP growth for 2012 was 7.8%, down from 9.3% in 2011. Growth is stabilizing at 8% which shows China is managing the economy, slowing the growth rate with a smaller stimulus planned in 2013, and working on sustainable growth for the longer term. This is a significant positive as a new leadership takes over in China and sets priorities for stable growth, and improvements in housing and health care.

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Rapidly increasing credit to GDP ratios between 2008 and 2012 in Hong Kong, Singapore, Malaysia, Thailand, and Taiwan.

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The Japanese government reports a revised estimate for GDP growth in 3rd quarter 2015 from a decline of 0.8% to an annualized rate of growth of 1%. As a result Japan is no longer in recession as previously reported.

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Tarcisio de Freitas, who allied with Bolsonaro, wins by a 10% margin over the PT candidate in Brazil's largest state Sao Paulo. About a third of Brazil's GDP is represented by Sao Paulo.