LyrArc Article Gist
A "Melt Up" rally in the U.S. stock market. A "Melt Up" rally is one that has precious little to do with economc fundamentals. Investors act in a herd mentality, in a mad rush by investors, after a late realization that there are gains to be made. The Standard and Poor's 500 stock index went up 63% since its March 9, 2009 low, and is up 22% for 2009. Yet a lot of money is still in low yielding fixed income assets. Three month Treasury bills yield 0.03%, and a negative yield where investors actually pay the government to safeguard their money. In January, $4 trillion were in money funds, they were recently at $3.339 trillion, according to Investment Company Institute. And this could lead to more money going into stocks, but some of it could go into emerging markets first. And the smart money may see the melt up continuing, as a sign to pull out. In any case without economic fundamentals, Farzad of BW, sees a multiyear bull market as remote, or ending up similiar to the meltup in early 2007 which ended in late 2008 with a market collapse....

LyrArc Article Gist
Sales of autos once at 14 to 24% increase year after year was down to essentially flat in the latter part of the year with full year growth at about 6.7% over 2007. And 2009 could be flat or see declines in sales. Consumers are feeling the effects f drop in the stock market and drop in housing prices as well as a slowing economy.

LyrArc Article Gist
Fiat's Marchionne's decision to focus on the Fiat 500 and the Panda city car in the price sensitive European market. Fiat has no success in selling its Bravo larger car. In 2011 sales of the Bravo model were only 32,036 compared to VW Golf model sales of 522,370 in Europe, according to IHS Global Insight. Sales of the Fiat 500 were 119,836 units vs. sales of 83,150 for the BMW Mini in the first half of 2012. Fiat has suffered more than other automakers in the European market with sales decline of 16.7% compared to 7.2% decline for the overall market, for Jan-Sept 2012. Fiat's new plans are for five new Fiat models and three new Fiat light trucks in Europe between 2013-2016. Fiat launched the 500L minivan in Europe in Sept 2012. Fiat's European factories are running at 45% of capacity on average, and the European operations are likely to burn through 700 million euros in 2013, similiar to 2012, unlikely to breakeven before 2015 or 2016. This makes getting the product decisions right critical for Fiat. Fiat's chief in Europe, Gianluca Italia talks of the functional and emotional soul of Fiat cars for Europe in a emphasis on making Fiat's models in the price sensitive segments more distinctive and commanding a premium in the European market. Fiat's 500 has about a 25% premium over a similiar Ford Ka in its segment. The new Fiat 500 models will be exported to Asia and Latin America in an effort to increase capacity utlilization in its Italian factories....

LyrArc Article Gist
Voter turnout of 83.5% in federal elections in Germany in Feb 2025 is the highest since reunification in 1990.  The Free Democrats and the Wagenknecht BSW  fail to meet the threshold of 5% for representation in parliament. The CDU manage 28.5% of the vote less than the forecast 30%, and the AfD is at 20.7%. Scholz Social Democrats drop 9% points from 25% in 2021 to 16.5% and the Greens are at 11.7% of the vote. The Left Parties get 8.7%. German broadcaster ARD cites exit polls showing 82% of voters were dissatisfied with the government coalition, 72% of voters dissatisfied with chancellor Scholz, yet the Greens  voters gave it 45% approval.  In terms of seats in the 630 seat Bundestag  Christian Democrats  208 seats Social Democrats.      121  The Greens                  85  Left Party                       64 AfD                               151        The likely outcome is resignation of chancellor Scholz and new leader for Social Democrats. A CDU SPD coalition Merz as chancellor, with Greens/ Left parties and AfD in the Opposition with equal number of seats.                                                                                                        ...

LyrArc Article Gist
DJT plans for 25% tariff on all imported cars goes into effect April 2, 2025. It is intended to promote additional investment in the US auto industry, boosting jobs and wages in the US. These countries have now wrapped their behavior around national sentiment even though they very well know how the US has looked out for Europe, and especially China throughout cataclysmic events in the 20th century and the 21st century such as foreign occupation and failures in modernization. By 2015 the US which had given Europe the Marshall Plan and helped Japan rebuild from the ashes of World War II, South Korea rebuild from the devastation of the Korean war, and China rebuild after the failed industrialization experiments of the 1960's and 1970's, was now facing nations that only saw this as a One Way Street, making the US look stupid and showing a degree of irresponsible behaviour on fentanyl, drug and migrant trafficking  by Canada Mexico and China that has few parallels in history. The narrative from the US is that the US allowed Europe, Japan and South Korea, and Mexico as a manufacturing base for these countries 25 years since the 1970's when Japanese Toyota vehicles made inroads into the US market to help these countries recover, a post Marshall Plan benefit given to Europe and Asia. During 1995-2015 a series of weak administrations Clinton-Bush-Obama allowed the US manufacturing base to decline under a falsely premised globalization that served US financial interests but hurt US manufacturing towns and communities across the country.  This means BMW, VW cars imported from Germany, Subaru, Toyota, Nissan, Honda cars from Japan, Hyundai and Kia cars from South Korea, Chinese EV vehicles, and cars made in Mexico for Asian and European makers, all will face this tariff. ...

LyrArc Article Gist
Reliance Power's total capacity is expected to reach 5000 megawatts by Dec. 2012. The company plans to install total capacity of 35,000 MW. It is building a 3,960 MW thermal project at Tilaiya in Jharkhand state, eastern India. Another plant of the same capacity is being built at Chitrangi in Madhya Pradesh, central India. About 75% of the funding will be through debt. Relince is in talks with U.S. and Chinese banks to fund the $8.35 billion for these 2 projects. Loans agreements are in place for $5 billion from the Export-Import Bank in the U.S. and $12 billion from Chinese banks, funding that is coming as part of buying equipment from the U.S. and China.

LyrArc Article Gist
Japan has coped with its long period of low growth by increasing the temp workforce. Loss of nontraditional workers jobs was 158,000 between October and mid February and accounted for much of the 220,000 jobs lost in the October to January period, according to the Japanese Labor Ministry. During the years that EU countries liberalized their labor markets allowing the hiring of temporary workers. During the 1990's Spain, Italy, Greece began allowing the hiring of temporary workers and workers on shortterm contracts. Germany allowed temporary workers and loosened labor laws earlier in this decade. By 2007 17% of the workers in the EU countries which share the euro were temporary workers. Many of these are young people or immigrants. But the labor laws in the EU for permanent employees remained the same and the worker protections were in place, including unemployment benefits and severance. This helped bring the EU unemployment rate down to 7.2% in 2007 during the upturn years. Now this whole process is going into reverse with the young and immigrants hit hardest. In Germany it costs 11,927 euros to layoff a permanent employee according to the Cologne Institure of Economic Research, and zero for laying off a shortterm employee. Now as the economy deteriorates the shortterm workers are being laid off first in large numbers. BMW has laid off 5000 shortterm workers. And short term contracts usually last only 4.7 months on average in Germany, about 12% of temp workers in Germany get hired as permanent workers. To get full unemployment benefits the workers have to have worked steadily for at least 1 year in Germany. ...

LyrArc Article Gist
How electric utilities and the oil industry are backing California's fight with the EPA to regulate auto emissions, cutting them by 30% by 2016 for new cars and trucks in the state. Its a fight endorsed by 14 states in the Northeast and Northwest. California sued the EPA, and in effect the Bush Administration which controls the EPA, in federal district court and federal appeals court. THe EPA has taken two years to respond to California's request for a waiver so that it can regulate auto emissions in its state. California's auto emissions rules are part of a broad effort to reduce all emissions in the state by 25% by 2020, including by manufacturing, electric utilities and the oil industry. Utilities and the oil industry share the opinion that all sectors of the economy should be required to take on this responsibility, including the transportation sector. In the past oil companies and the auto industry have been at loggerheads about who is responsible for the worsening dependence of the USA on foreign oil and the worsening impact of the oil consumption on the environment and their advertising campaign have often shifted the blame on each other. Is this part of the continuing debate about oil as oil prices rise and consciousness about global warming rises as it has already done so in Europe. See the links to the Frankfurt Auto Show. BMW known for gas guzzling machines has done an aboutface in the face of public opinion in Germany and is advertising its image as environment friendly and investing in new technologies to curb emissions and increase fuel economy. ...

LyrArc Article Gist
Roben Farzad of Bloomberg BW meets with Goldman Sach's Harvey M. Schwartz, co-head of the global securities division, to get Goldman's account of the global financial crisis of 2008-2009, the AIG rescue, and John Paulson.

LyrArc Article Gist
Remarkable museums for the automobile. BMW Welt cost $250 million. They attract large numbers of people, the Wolfsburg museum of VW attracts 2 million tourists ayear. Mercedes opened a museum in Stuttgart and Porsche is opening anew one this year. The idea is to be able to creat a bonding with the customer by having him visit the factory see how the car is made, see the history and heritage of the automobile brand and then pick up his car in a ultra modernistic architecture building, so that he can have a sense of being special and witnessing a marvel.

LyrArc Article Gist
The worst flaw in the health care bill says the Economist is that "fee for service" and doctors billing for each test done continues as before.The whole idea of medical services based on medical necessity and value for money has been left out of the billsin Congress. Alan Meltzer also pointed this out in his discussion of the deficits and debt over the next decade; that the 25% reduction in medical expenditures does not look anywhere closer to reality, worsening the deficits. This is also the view expressed in the discussion of health care reform in the November 2, 2009, issue of Business Week. Never mind said BW that the doctors and hospitals account for one third of medical expenditures and there is waste in Medicare spending. Congress said BW has made no changes in the "fee-for-service" system of medical care that has inflated medical costs, by paying doctors for the volume of services delivered and not the quality of services delivered.

LyrArc Article Gist
Mercedes is seeing signifcant sales growth in China. It is Mercedes's third biggest market with sales of 100,000 cars compared to 67,000 in 2009. Daimler CEO Dieter Zetsche says that given no downturn in the world economy Mercedes-Benz cars should reach its target for return on sales of 10% by the second half of 2012. He predicted EBIT of 2.5-3 billion euros for 2010, and plans to boost expenditures for R&D in fuel efficient technology and capital investments in new vehicle models in the second half of 2010. Analyst Warburton at Sanford and Bernstein, writes that Mercedes is likely to pass 7% margins in the first half of 2010, and will get a boost from a weaker euro plus strong sales in China. The only question is, as Dieter Zetsche noted, prospects depend on no downturn in the global economy. China's economy is growing too fast to be sustainable growth and a property bubble is developing, and its not certain how long strong sales in China will last. There are other signs of a slowdown in the global economy. See global economy....

LyrArc Article Gist
The first of many coastal wind turbine energy projects on America's coastline produces energy. The Vineyards Wind project in New Bedford harbour in Massachusetts sends 5MW of energy to the New England grid this week. The Operator says 5 850 feet tall turbines will be operational early this year. In all 62 turbines will generate wind energy, enough to power 400,000 homes. The White House's and president Biden's target is for 30 gigawatts of wind energy to power 10 million homes by 2030. Understand how Danish companies are leading the effort which is also why Danish companies were invited to India for its nascent wind energy industry. Copenhagen Infrastructure Partners is the developer with Avangrid of Spain. South Forks Wind is a smaller 12 turbine project off the New York coastline which s being developed by Orsted of Denmark. This Guardian report says some of the opposition to these projects in other parts of the country are coming from fossil fuel companies that seek to prolong the use of fossil fuels in the face of warnings of climate change by scientists and other leaders in government and industry. ...

LyrArc Article Gist
The funny German ad for the Jazz is playful and funny. Its a redesigned Honda Fit minicar sold in Europe as the Jazz. Acura's TSX is essentially a European Honda Accord. Saturn is offering a version of the European Opel Astra compact. Ford is bringing the Fiesta here from Europe as the new Verve compact car and it unveiled a prototype of a New York City taxi built on a van Ford sells in Europe. VW is planning to bring more European cars here and build a factory in the US. And Mercedes is brining models here equiped with its new Blue Tec diesel engines. And Daimler is bringing its tiny Sart Fortwo car to the US with a website that has taken 30,000 orders already. The market is going global for cost reasons. And its a market looking more and more like the European market where the local carmakers and the foreign carmakers are all jostling for a share of the pie with a fractured market and each car maker having a small share of the market. Ford, GM and Chrysler compete with Toyota, Honda, Renault-Nissan, VW, BMW and Mercedes all with a small share of the overall market and all these companies now operating as global companies with operations all over the world and building models now for a worldwide market. Ford is clearly following this trend and Mullaly wants to see good European modelsbrought quickly into the US and costs for developing models shared across a worldwide market. Smaller size also works to bring European and Asian models adapted to the US because the US market is moving towards fuel efficient smaller cars. So there is a convergence from a number of angles, for it to make sense to build a good car and sell it in as many places as possible, and the old region based logic does not make sense any more....

LyrArc Article Gist
How the Frankdurt Auto Show was a kind of watershed for the European auto industry, where the German carmakers decided to commit resources and move technology in the direction of reducing emissions and improving mileage, with cleaner diesel engines, reduced emissions from gasoline engines and all round improvements in technology that was environment friendly. Mercedes and BMW appear fully committed to meeting new EU goals for emisssions of 120 grams per kilometer for 2012. At this show Mercedes had 8 cars equipped with Blue-Tec technology for cleaner diesel engine and 7 hybrid cars. It has new Dies-Otto technology that it is developing for delivering the best properties of diesel and gasoline.