LyrArc Article Gist
U.S. revised GDP figures from the Commerce Department show growth of 5.1% for the 3rd quarter 2014, up from 4.6% in the 2nd quarter of 2014. The 1st quarter's contraction, and slower growth of about 2-3% expected in the 4th quarter 2014 means the full 2014 GDP growth is expected to be about 2.5%, according to U.S. Fed officials. For 2015 oil capital expenditures will decline, and housing continues to struggle. Exports from the U.S. may slow with a stronger dollar and weakness in Europe and China, creating some of the same uncertainties faced in 2014.

LyrArc Article Gist
As shown in this Guardian report about clean tap drinking water in China in 2017 pollution of rivers and lakes was so severe that anywhere between half to 80 of water in rivers was not drinkable. This was just before the pandemic. Efforts since 2015 to tackle the problem are still in progress. This is happening as India works on getting 100% of 190 million homes covered for drinking tap water in India by 2024. Out of this 116 million homes or 60% have clean drinking tap water in 2023 under prime minister Modi's  Jal Jeevan Mission (Water for Life) led by IAS's Mr Parmeswaran. India and China started out in 1990 with about the same GDP. China attracted foreign investment to accelerate its economic growth to where its GDP is much higher today than India. Yet in 2023 India starting from behind has some advantages. In the case of clean drinking water, limiting contamination of the rivers with effective regulation of industries which was missing in China, and providing clean drinking water with newer technological means is one of these advantages. Indian investment comes with the technology of the 2020's compared to China's investment using technology from the 2000 period. This will create additional gains in GDP and quality of GDP in its challenge of matching and exceeding growth in China. ...

LyrArc Article Gist
A decline in military spending and exports offset growth in residential investment and investment in equipment and software to lead to a 0.1% contraction in the U.S. economy for the 4th quarter of 2012. This reflected a decline in military spending of 22.2%. GDP growth declined from 3.1% in the 3rd quarter to negative 0.1%. The U.S. GDP growth increased from 1.8% for 2011 to 2.2% in 2012.

LyrArc Article Gist
Local government debt is estimated to be 27% of GDP using estimates by Dragonomics and the China's National Audit Office. Prof. Shih of Northwestern University, an expert on this subject, estimates this to be $2.6 trillion or 42% of GDP. The total government debt is at 82% of GDP using the 27% estimate for local government debt. Using the higher 42% figure for local government debt of Chinese banks gives total government debt of 97% of GDP. Considering the nature of China's financial system in which state run banks and state run enterprises are a dominant feature, local government debt is likely to become the responsbility of China's central government. This also affects China's efforts to tackle inflation because higher interest rates would increase the cost of servicing this debt. As a result the government is unlikely to meet its inflation target of 4% in 2011. Large foreign exchange reserves of $3 trillion, the low interest rates, and high growth rates are expected to help China cope with this looming debt problem. Another round of capital injection to recapitalize banks is expected in 2012-2013 with the transition to a new leadership in China....

LyrArc Article Gist
U.S. GDP growth was a seasonally adjusted annual -1% in the 1st quarter of 2014, according to the Commerce Department.

LyrArc Article Gist
Germany's 0.3% decline in GDP in second quarter offsets o.3% increase in first quarter. The cost of living and the uncertainty for the industrial base as it readjusts to new rules in trade following the energy dislocations of the shift in energy supplies, remain as hurdles for the German economy.

LyrArc Article Gist
Aaron Back says this time China is likely to feel the effects of the volatility in the stock markets. The surge in the stock markets added about half a percentage point to GDP growth in the 1st quarter of 2015, according to Capital Economics. GDP growth in the 1st quarter 2015 was 7%. Capital Economics says removing the boost from the stock market to a sluggish economy would mean a loss of 1 percentage point in GDP growth. Equity issuance was one way China hoped to reduce high debt levels at companies, and that avenue would the be that much harder to access to reduce debt levels. Margin financing is about $354 billion, or 3.5% of GDP according to Goldman Sachs, posing another source of problems and potentially affecting growth if stock losses lead to defaults. Declining investor sentiment and confidence in management of the economy would be another casualty in this situation. Only 10% of Chinese households own stocks compared to 50% in the U.S., yet Aaron Back says the effects of this are likely to be felt in lower economic growth and shaken confidence in the economy....

LyrArc Article Gist
By failing to show a grasp of the problems of rural poverty and lack of upward mobility, of health and education, in the rural parts of the US, Paul Krugman ignores the spirit that for so long kept the lights on for rural America in the time of FDR and Truman. The NYT's Thomas Edsall has done a great service to America by showing where the Democratic party under Clinton and Obama lost the spirit of FDR and Truman of standing by the common man, of "The People, Yes" that Carl Sandburg wrote so eloquently about not so long ago.

LyrArc Article Gist
As president Biden signs the biggest Climate Bill in history Jim Tankersley says there is still more to be done. In addition to the work remaining for children, women and families, he mentions the Civilian Climate Corps with financing for $10 billion that is patterned on the Civilian Conservation Corps set up during the Depression by FDR, which is still to be passed. This would form "the next generation of conservation and resilience workers," says Biden. Much like the 3 million people who helped build parks, cut trails and planted trees around the US in the 1930's and 1940's under FDR.

LyrArc Article Gist
U.S. GDP increased by 1.5% in the second quarter of 2012. This is down from 2% in the first quarter of 2012.

LyrArc Article Gist
Martin Feldstein points out why the recent agreement for a "fiscal compact" is no more than an empty statement about fixing the eurozone's finances. In this respect it is no different than the Stability and Growth Pact it replaces, with serious weaknesses. Feldstein cites the weaknesses in the language of the agreement. Each eurozone country is required to limit its"cyclically adjusted" budget deficit to 0.5% of GDP and bring its debt down to 60% of GDP. Compliance will be performed by the European Court of Justice and fines imposed. In practice the questions loom large- for a country like Spain with a 23% unemployment rate, isn't all of the 6% budget deficit cyclical? Again the agreement says deficits are calculated "net of one-off and temporary measures." Under this provision a lot of the stimulus programs would be considered in the category of "one-off." Other language lets eurozone countries frame budgets based on "exceptional circumstances" and "periods of severe economic downturn." Italy has declining economic growth, does it make sense to have a large budget surplus in that situation to lower debt to GDP, and how does that goal relate to "exceptional circumstances."...

LyrArc Article Gist
Japan's GDP fell by 7.8% in the second quarter of 2020 compared with previous quarter. By comparison for U.S. economy GDP was down 9.5% for that quarter. In Japan the increase in the national sales tax from 8% to 10% in October 2019 had already caused a contraction in the economy. It is uncertain how much the second wave of the pandemic will affect the economic recovery.

LyrArc Article Gist
Japan's GDP growth is at an annualized pace of 3.5% for the 1st quarter of 2013.

LyrArc Article Gist
Britain's GDP growth was at an annualized pace of 2.0% for the fourth quarter of 2014, with full year 2014 growth at 2.6%, according to the Office of National Statistics. This was the highest annual growth rate since 2007.

LyrArc Article Gist
Lower oil prices are reflected in the lower foreign trade numbers for the U.S., but something else is happening in the way foreign trade is declining globally. Citigroup Economist Wieting estimates that the drop in exports in October if sustained across the quarter would have taken 2.2 points from GDP, a bigger hit than declining consumer spending that makes up 70% of GDP.

LyrArc Article Gist
This report in WSJ cites the PM's office saying a tax cut just when tourism revenue slowed with the start of the pandemic reduced Sri Lankan government annual revenues by 800 billion rupees. The combined impact of the tax cut with the pandemic relief measures and drop in tourism revenues widened the budget deficit from 9.6% of GDP to 12.2% of GDP in 2020. PM Wickremasinghe has increased VAT from 8% to 12% to generate 65 billion rupees. And an additional 52 billion rupees from increasing corporate tax from 24% to 30%. The ill timed tax cuts and mismanagement of finances are at the roots of the economic crisis.

LyrArc Article Gist
U.S. GDP growth slowed in the 1st quarter 2015 to seasonally adjusted 0.2%, according to the Commerce Department.

LyrArc Article Gist
U.S. GDP growth for the 1st quarter of 2013 was at an annualized pace of 2.5%.

LyrArc Article Gist
Chinese president Xi Jinping has set strict carbon emissions targets for 2021, in his commitment to achieve peak carbon emissions by 2030 and carbon neutrality by 2060. Power cuts for industry are put in place to meet the targets. A 56% rise in coal prices is also making it less profitable for power plants to generate electricity. This will further reduce Chinese GDP growth. Banks have cut year over year GDP growth for quarters three and four to 4.7% and 3%.

LyrArc Article Gist
DJT selects as Treasury Secretary, Scott Bessent, who was Chief Investment Officer for George Soros before starting his own hedge fund. Bessent was investment officer for George Soros when he made the bet against the British sterling currrency. His hedge fund manages $500 million in assets. He supported Mr. Trump in his first bid in 2016 and joined his campaign effort at a time when Nikki Haley was in the primaries. While campaigning he offered economic advice to DJT and said  Trump should strive for 3+3+3 for the economy cutting the deficit to 3% of GDP, 3% GDP growth to reduce the deficit with more tax revenues, and 3 million barrels a day of oil production in the US.

LyrArc Article Gist
China's GDP growth for the 4th quarter of 2012 was 7.9% over prior year, increasing from 7.4% in the third quarter of 2012, according to the National Bureau of Statistics. GDP growth for 2012 was 7.8%, down from 9.3% in 2011. Growth is stabilizing at 8% which shows China is managing the economy, slowing the growth rate with a smaller stimulus planned in 2013, and working on sustainable growth for the longer term. This is a significant positive as a new leadership takes over in China and sets priorities for stable growth, and improvements in housing and health care.

LyrArc Article Gist
This WSJ analysis shows that in the counties that flipped to Biden in the U.S. election about 40% of the people had white collar jobs and were better educated and in metropolitan regions. Of the counties that flipped to Trump about 20% had white collar jobs with only 1.4% jobs growth whereas the improvement in the counties that flipped to Biden had much higher jobs growth of 5.3%. Where Biden prevailed 70% of America's GDP is generated, where Trump prevailed 30% is generated. One is white collar in metropolitan regions, in cities and suburbs, better educated. The other is blue collar, less educated. One blue collar is hit hard by the pandemic, the other is white collar but also includes some of the people hardest hit in the pandemic of minorities in the cities and suburbs. In truth none can benefit without bringing all along. And loyalties shift as most of the professional class was once with Republicans who were the party of business. The sending out of American manufacturing to China has not only affected the economy, it has also changed the parties as the Republicans took up the cause of American manufacturing workers changing the two parties. For most of the twentieth century this was not the case as FDR, Truman and Kennedy-Johnson, were Democratic presidents supported by blue collar workers.   ...