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Current responses to China's different posture in international relations obscure the huge investments made by US and European Union business in China that lead to about $1 trillion in exports from China to US and EU in 2021. This could not happen without the hyper investment in China by business in the US and EU that not only neglected manufacturing technologies in the home country but did this on a immense scale that would end up shipping almost the whole of the manufacturing supply chains to China from the US and EU. Done as a carefully planned shift of some manufacturing operations it could have benefitted both China and the US and EU. In what way was this hyper move in pace and scale damaging? China's water, air and land was contaminated at a rapid pace never before seen in history, seen as early as 2005. And the hyper shift by 2015 and in 2020 is now showing the severe effects of climate change with droughts, floods and fires all over the world. The German Environment Ministry today counts the cost at 90 times in the use of coal and fossil fuels over time. On the scale that this massive and fast shift was done of manufacturing to China even more so- a hugely imprudent response of US and EU business management and executives. Instead of tackling and confronting head on the challenging problems of quality control and cost in the 1990's through 2000 and beyond at home, management at Apple and other companies simply shifted all manufacturing to China. The other ill effect of the imprudent response of American business was in the massive and wholesale shift of supply chain to China by offshoring practically the entire manufacturing base. It was to lead to the massive losses that workers, families  and communities in the US and EU that countries could not cope with as it moved on an accelerated hyper level and pace. The result was to lead to intense criticism of China and a level of rancor that has poisoned the relations with China. Some of this counsel to China was given to leaders of the Communist party who had little knowledge of American capitalism operating within constraints of social democracy in 1990. Some of that counsel was self interested given by investment banks to Chinese officials- investment bankers that have now disappeared from view- who themselves lacked an understanding of the social constraints of American and European democracies. It is that rancor that is now leading to China and the US disconnecting the supply chains leading to questions one is certain within China about how this will affect unemployment in China in the years to come. The pandemic simply accelerated this realization on both sides of this untenable situation. Still a trillion dollars in exports are taking place even as the political situation is now totally adrift -as the situation in Taiwan in August 2022 shows- the political and trading relationships at opposite ends and seemingly at war with each other. ...

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The world is too dependent on one semiconductor manufacturer, Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company, TSMC. Companies in Taiwan make 65% of the dollar value of the world's chips. How did this happen? It poses a threat to the US and to the world economy. Finally the US is making an effort to correct this. The European Union already has plans to produce 20% of the world's next generation chips in 2030. Intel plans $20 billion investment for 2 chip factories in the US. Only months earlier this report in WSJ says Intel president Bob Swan was giving more contracts to TSMC for next generation chips.  It shows how much the pandemic has changed views on supply chain security. Intel ousted Mr. Swan for missteps in relying too much on TSMC as this dangerous policy became evident during the pandemic. Such was the culture that existed before the pandemic on supply chains, on investment allocation, and related issues. As a single semiconductor factory can cost $20 billion, the Biden administration is getting involved with Congress to rebuild America's semiconductor industry and independent supply chain. TSMC is built on subsidies from Taiwan government. Morris Chang founded TSMC in 1987 after studying at MIT and working 30 years at Texas Instruments. At founding half of the investment for TSMC came from Taiwan government. The US to rebuild will require the government to support the chip industry in many ways. In this sense the US manufacturers who ceded manufacturing to TSMC were shortsighted- AMD, Intel, Qualcomm Apple. They without realizing it built the model on which TSMC would thrive and invest and grow. Take just one example- to meet Apple's first order TSMC spent $9 billion with 6000 people working round the clock to build a factory in 11 months. Yes Apple did not have to worry about chip manufacturing and quality by contracting it out. Yet over the years it was ceding the manufacture of the most important chips in its products to an exclusive supplier. It was also ceding away the technologies that went with it. Americans were told not to care by the best universities and professors, by economic departments and scientific educational institutions for two decades leading to the situating facing America today. Meanwhile Taiwan is supporting its chip industry even further as it relies on the chip industry to provide protection in its struggle to maintain its independence from China. A situation no American manufacturer understands or had planned to create, but is now left to the Biden administration and president Biden to solve. After twenty years of unchecked capital allocation and investments by the leaders of American manufacturing based on an inadequate and incomplete understanding of the role of manufacturing and manufacturing technologies in the life of America since its founding two hundred years ago, president Biden faces the task of restoring confidence in America. And this at the time of a pandemic that has taken hundreds of thousands of lives.      ...

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The sense of conflict in China and US relations may not have developed in the shaping of Xi Jinping's thinking till the emergence of Mr. Trump. Jinping comes into the China shaped by Deng and Zemin after the collapse of the purely Communist experiment with modernization without access to western technologies and capital, and the experiment with American help. It is only after the realization that the Communist party had lost its sense of purpose in these years leading to the Bo Xilai episode, and the rhetoric of Mr. Trump against China, that the idea of first friction and then conflict emerged. The initial idea for Jinping before Trump was that this has worked for China- the experiment with the cooperation of the US in modernizing China. Trump's rhetoric and the Republican party's rhetoric about China stealing American jobs and technology after 2015 may have been targeted to win the election but it had an unintended effect after the tariffs of shaping Jinping's thinking about the future for China. Between the Bo Xi Lai episode in 2012 when it appeared he would be attempting to manipulate the Communist party's direction in unknown and unpredictable ways, Bo's trial in 2013 and the anticorruption campaign and the 2015 election campaign of Mr. Trump in the US, there must have been much soul searching in the party that shaped Jinping's thinking about the future for China after all the tumult of the 20th century starting with the Boxer rebellion in 1901. Stability is highly prized in China particularly for modernization. This perspective is important to grasp for world peace to be preserved with different coexisting perspectives about the world based on national as well as shared interests in issues such as climate change. US after its own disastrous experiment with capitalism that led to widening inequality of the kind not seen since Lincoln in the 1850's, the 2009 crisis, and the shift of jobs to China under a purely capitalist idea of how economies should function, had its own national interests in jobs, local manufacturing and Made in the USA. Once this process was underway after 2016 and grasped by president Biden after 2020, and supply chain reconstruction made the goal after covid, the US and China were on divergent economic and political paths.   That rethinking by Xi Jinping is not over as it may still be going on. The war in Ukraine may even convince Jinping and China's No. 2 leader Li Keqiang who studied the US constitution and American urbanization under mentors when he was in college, that Russia's prolongation of the war in Ukraine does not serve the interests of China. That risking relations with the European Union as Russia prolongs the war and finds itself in the complex problems of  a war it started, is not in China's interests in setting its own course for the future. ...

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Liz Whitehurst is one of many young people who are giving up jobs in offices to take to farming. They are not from farm families and bring a new way and exciting way of looking at farming free of the pesticides and other practices common today. Only 2% of U.S. land is being used for growing fruits and vegetables, according to the Union of American Scientists cited in the Guardian newspaper, and this needs to at least double in acreage if American needs are to be met. Only 15% of Americans get the daily requirement for fruits and vegetables- so desperately needed is this  to lower the BMI of the 70% of overweight Americans with BMI over 50. In the light of this crisis the shift of young people to farming is an encouraging sign.  In 2015 Liz, 32 years, decided to buy a 3 acre farm in Upper Marboro, Md, giving up benefits and better pay at nonprofit jobs in Washington state.  Here she is shown picking up Aragula leaves in the November chill. She is not alone. She is joining a movement that is bringing highly educated, former urban first time farmers as the demand for better food, for local and sustainable food, especially fruits and vegetables grows in the U.S. Year on Year there is a 20% increase of farmers in states like California, Nebraska, South Dakota in the 25-34 age group. In the 2014 USDA Census this group is growing at 2-3% just when other groups are shrinking by double digits. These farmers are more likely to connect with the community supported agriculture (CSA) prorams and markets, to grow organically and limit pesticide and fertilizer use. They tend to have farms less than 50 acres. Liz leases the house and the fields from a neighboring couple in the 70's, growing organically certified peppers, cabbages, tomatoes and salad greens kale to aragula, rotating fields. On Tues, Thurs. and Fri. she and two friends are to be seen waking up in the early hours of darkness to kneel in mud and cut the greens. What motivates them is having a positive impact, to do that so it is immediate and you can see it making a difference, says Liz. Still young farmers face many hurdles, including student loan debt, and finding ways to meet the larger needs for online grocery service or the grocery chains. Yet a trend is taking shape for small and middle farms that provides some optimism as the number of farmers shrink significantly overall. Most alarmingly it is the lack of national and local policies to meet the health crisis of rising BMI's right at this level of local farms and community farms for local produce. Lack of any consciousness about this, even though good health in the U.S. as in other countries has always rested on what you are eating, long before processed foods became the norm this is the way the world met nutrition needs.    ...

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A Washington Post poll in September 2016 shows some surprising results with Clinton competitive in Texas and Arizona, long red states. It shows Trump's appeal to older white voters helping him in Iowa and Ohio. Clinton has a slight lead in Michigan. Clinton also leads in Pennsylvania, Nevada, and Colorado, and also in Florida.  As the race gets closer with about 50 days left Clinton's lead of 8-9 points is now about 4 points. Most striking this time compared to 2012 is that Clinton is polling way ahead with college educated voters. A race with libertarian candidate Johnson shows him getting 15% of the vote in 15 states narrowing Clinton's advantage, but also putting pressure on Trump to win undecided voters. Clinton has consolidated the Democratic vote better than Trump with 90% support in 32 states compared to Trump's above that in only 13 states, a key weakness because of dividing the Republican vote with Trump's crude and blatant attacks during the primaries that have left some Republicans thoroughly alienated. Unlike any previous election this one is dividing the vote based on gender and education. A big additional difference is college educated white women where the gap is the widest seen in any election- a 23 point lead for Clinton with white college educated women nationwide. In the midwest Michigan still has a history of voting Democratic especially after the auto industry rescue by Obama. Demographic changes not mentioned here also play a part such as in Colorado and Nevada long time red states. A Clinton edge in Texas is the most surprising result in the entire poll results showing the old red state blue state division is now replaced by women, minorities and college degrees as the dividing line. Part of the reason for this is that the losses due to globalization. And in this respect Clinton does better than Obama, but not as well as Merkel in Germany who has also suffered with people who lost out in globalization but not to the extent of Obama, and to a lesser degree than Obama for Clinton. Enough minority support, Republican support, and blue collar support, in addition to women voters,  may be the difference for Clinton in Texas. The other factor is the advertising campaign funding and the national security issue, on which Clinton does better than Obama in the latter a key factor in red states, and is similar to Obama in the former to tackle midwestern states. Such as Michigan and Wisconsin, liberal in history but with large shifting blue collar votes. Hurt by globalization, but in the case of Michigan helped by the Democrats rescue of the auto industry. In a way this could bring the country together after Obama with the disappearing North-South or red state blue state division, and with enough union or working class white support for Clinton in addition to dominant college educated voters to form a new coalition of support compared to a predominantly red state white state division of Obama years based on the minority vote.  ...

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Many of the 255 Comments on this article in the NYT say it is misleading or grossly misleading title. Michael Crowley of NYT quotes Wertheim for his conclusion that there seems to be a sense that the world is out of control, there is chaos under president Biden. This is subtly presented and clearly wrong. Wertheim is the author of a book that questions America's exceptionalism, and says "isolationism" was somehow concocted by policy makers such as Eisenhower and Dulles, both Republicans for a postwar world built on American supremacy. What Crowley and Wertheim do is put their very idea of asking questions about policy which is a part of the discussion into misrepresenting through misinformation about what happened. Biden has acted with courage to close wars no other president not Reagan/ Rumsfeld who started the conflict with Iran by arming Iraq's unprovoked war on Iran, not Bush who initiated the war in Afghanistan, not Obama and Trump who did not close the war in the mountains around Kabul that is a "graveyard for Empires" - the Maratha Empire in India in the 1700's that opened the door to British rule in India, not the British Empire wisely staying out of it, the Soviet Union beginning its decline there, and the US mired in it similar to the Soviets. Crowley/Wertheim are only making things worse- Netanyahu was emboldened by the former president and made a major security failure. Putin miscalculated in Ukraine, Biden simply acted in the way any wise American president would -strengthened NATO with Finland and Sweden, providing reasons for Russian restraint yet without escalating the conflict. To say this is chaos is to misinform and misrepresent, and favor the very Supremacy that former president Trump proposes as policy based on US power. By contrast Biden' approach is peace through strength from building close relations between partners in Europe and Asia, not provocation or supremacy. Wertheim is only one voice in a larger discussion not the authority he is presented as. For Wertheim to say "isolationism" was a bogey and point to 1950 as the point when it was created is simply wrong. It existed in some form from the early days of the Republic. Washington was an advocate of not involving the fledgling Republic in foreign entanglements of France even though it was an ally. It is not that response to isolationism is the cause of America embracing the role of leading the Free World as it is now. It is simply the situation leaders faced. Truman faced it when Soviets planned insurgencies in Turkey and Greece which would not exist as democracies today without Truman. And across Eastern Europe Hungary 1956 Ike acted cautiously. Czechoslovakia 1968 LBJ Johnson acted cautiously already in the wrong war with Vietnamese nationalism.  ...

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"Kurzarbeit" job preservation programs incorporate an idea that workers make up for less pay when a company is doing well by being paid and on the job when a company is doing poorly, leading to job preservation benefitting the employee and skills preservation benefitting the company. In 2013 in the throes of the eurozone crisis France passed a labor reform law and committed to improving competitiveness by adopting some ideas from its close neighbor and partner in the eurozone experiment, Germany. But experts say little has changed. France's unemployment is at a high of 10.4% in the third quarter 2014, according to the French statistics office Insee, with little prospect of economic growth in 2015. What happened? A report commissioned by the French and German governments from economists Jean Pisani-Ferry and Henrik Enderlein, says job preservation agreements in France are too strict and ineffective. Half a million more people are without jobs in Dec. 2014 compared to May 2012 when president Hollande took office. Insolvencies in France are 35% higher in 2014 than the average between 2003-2007, for Germany 31% lower, according to credit insurer Euler Hermes. Just in the 12 months to Sept 30, 63,000 companies in France were declared insolvent. Job preservation agreements have failed because other changes in the legal system are needed. Currently a company must prove to an employee council why it is reducing wages in a downturn. A small group of employees can still reject the agreement and ask for severance packages, leading to layoffs. The reforms were done in piecemeal fashion, say economists Jean Pisani-Ferry and Henrik Enderlein....

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This WSJ editorial says the IMF must help Ukraine with emergency financing, and the U.S. and Germany need to offer long term economic assistance.

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Michael Barnier leads the negotiating team for the EU as it begins negotiations with Britain on Brexit. He is a former foreign minister of France and former EU commissioner, giving him the necessary skills and experience. Yet as he meets with the Affairs of the European Committee in the German parliament, even Barnier is not clear how the negotiations will be conducted. Only that the issues relating to disentangling the closely interwoven economies of the EU and Britain relate to nationals of the EU and Britain in each others region, the common 20,000 legally binding regulations, and the price tag for Britain to pay of 60 billion euros. The leading German in the negotiating team is Gunther Oettinger, a former EU budget commissioner, and he tells Der Spiegel that the bill may be even higher than that number. The figure will be arrived at by taking into account the obligations of Britain and applying this to assets. The obligations include the money owed to the EU budget, share of medium term budget planning to 2020, share of pension payments to EU civil servants. The British take a different view and do not understand why they have to pay this amount when they are exiting. The British want to see their future relationship on trade and access to the EU markets discussed early, but the EU position is just the opposite, first exit negotiations to be completed by September 2018, then other discussions on trade. March 29, 2019 is the date set for Britain to be no longer a member of the EU. Yet even the sequence of issues has not been set and the sides could not be further apart than they are now. Each side looking at its situation domestically with elections in the EU in 2017, and May facing the added challenge of Scotland threatening to leave the UK. ...

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A news story about French president Francois Hollande saying he wanted to see tough negotiations sends the British pound plummeting on October 7, 2016. It fell to $1.18 before recovering to $1.24 to the dollar. Experts say algorithms overreacted to the news story about Hollande's remarks. Further declines are expected as Brexit negotiations happen in 2017 closer to elections in Germany and France, with issues such as movement within the EU likely to be obstacles. Other factors influencing the pound are the that the pound is no longer a safe haven following Brexit, and the uncertainties generated by the Brexit "yes" vote. This would mean higher prices in Britain's retail stores for imported products, costlier vacations overseas, and higher inflation. It could boost British exports with a devalued currency making them more competitive. 

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Michael Getler of the Washington Post gives an indepth look at former West German chancellor, Helmut Schmidt, who succeeded Willy Brandt as chancellor in 1974 till the fall of the SPD government from internal divisions in 1982. This was the period when West Germany emerged as the leading economy in Europe, and pursued policies of improved relations with East Germany (the GDR) under Honecker, and the Soviet Union under Brezhnev, leading to the period of German reunification under his successor Helmut Kohl of the Christian Democrats. Schmidt also pursued very close relations with France under Giscard d'Estaing, setting up the groundwork for what would become the Euro currency and European monetary system. In the years after 1982 Schmidt was active as co-publisher of the Die Zeit newspaper. This account of Schmidt and that period complements Jonathan Kandell's indepth assessment of Schmidt in the NYT. Today's world economic summits of western leaders- especially the critical ones following the 2008 global economic crisis- originated from the meetings Schmidt started in 1975 and broadened in 1979. During that period Germany, France, UK and the U.S. were faced with the global recession after the 1973-74 oil crisis. Here Getler describes Schmidt in terms used by Germans for someone who is action oriented but also overconfident and brushes off other people- the German word "macher." Another German expression "Mr Schmidt Schnauze," as Mr Schmidt the Lip, stuck to Mr. Schmidt for his tendency to offer strong criticism, while being less tolerant of criticism of his own policies and actions....

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The German Constitutional Court established the legality of the eurozone bailouts under German law. It also stipulated that future bailouts would require the approval of a parliamentary committee. The Court ruled out any proposal that would pool Germany's debt with that of other countries in the eurozone. This rules out the issuance of eurobonds that are supported by the pooled resources of all EU countries. With no mechanism for firm budgetary discipline in place under the current structure of the EU, this is seen as an absolute no in Germany, and is opposed by all German political parties including Chancellor Merkel's Christian Democrats. ECB president, Jean Claude Trichet, is a strong supporter of the European Union, who actively participated in its creation over three decades. He insisted on budgetary discipline for all EU member states in his recent speech at a conference in Lake Cuomo resort in northern Italy. By leaving open other solutions over time that would still move forward the idea of a united Europe, the Court's view on this point coincides with that of Merkel and the ECB's current and future presidents, Trichet and Draghi. Merkel told the German parliament on Sept. 7, 2011: "Europe must come out of this crisis stronger than it went in, just as Germay came out of the crisis stronger." Merkel compared the difficulties today with the difficulties Germany faced as it tried to rebuild after World War II. Others have compared the difficulties to that of reuniting East and West Germany with their disparate and different ecoomic structures, attitudes and demographics....

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Karen Elliott House, a former publisher of the Wall Street Journal, who won a Pulitzer prize for reporting on the Middle East, is now researching Saudi society. She now writes this scathing report from Saudi Arabia. She says that just as in Egypt, an old corrupt leadership continues in power for several decades, an old corrupt leadership in the form of 7000 princes in a vast royal family. King Abdullah is in his eighties and the ruling princes have an average age of 83, and have illnesses for which they are under medical treatment. They continue to lead a nation where 60% of the people are young people under the age of 18! Itself an astounding fact. Karen House points out that the internet and social media have also made the young very knowledgeable about the conditions in the country- where 40% of Saudis live in poverty and 70% cannot afford a home. Bad managemet by the princes has affected basic services including the sewage and drainage problems in Jeddah after the floods. It is astounding that far less wealthy Gulf sheikdoms are doing a better job of providing education, jobs and health care. Thirty years of visiting Saudi Arabia, and the last four years of intensive reporting, has persuaded Karen House that this situation is at an impasse that might end up resolving itself through some sort of upheaval. To Karen House this looks like the last days of the aging leadership under Brezhnev before the Soviet Union collapsed....

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Informed sources say Portugal will require 90 billion euros ($129 billion) in a bailout package from the European Union and the International Monetary Fund. Of this 10 billion euros will be needed in June 2011. Germany's finance minister Schauble, said the austerity program that is part of the bailout will be put together in the next 2-3 weeks with the help of the European Commission, the European Central Bank, and the IMF. The bailout will probably be structured in several phases coming before and after June 5 elections in Portugal. The current Socrates administration and a new administration will share responsibility in negotiations for the deal. The opposition Social Democrats who are front runners supported by 39% of the voters and the CDS party with 7%, both support the current government's bailout request. A Social Democrats-CDS coalition is likely after the June elections. The leader of the Social Democrats, Pedro Coelho, is involved in the negotiations. The crisis came to this point after Portuguese banks-which were among the principal buyers of government debt- decided to stop buying additional governmet debt. This meant the government with low cash reserves had little chance of meeting the 4.9 billion euros in debt repayments in June, after a 4.2 billion euro debt repayment in April. The Portuguese government had preferred a bridge loan from the EU but the EU declined this request, insisting on austerity measures. A recent effort by the Socrates government to get an austerity package was defeated in Parliament, leading to Socrates' resignation. ...

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A new poll from YouGov shows the Conservative Party getting 310 seats and Labor Party at 257 seats. Labor would gain 30 seats and Conservatives lose 20 seats under this prediction. Conservatives would fall short of the majority of 326 seats needed. Support for Theresa May is slipping especially after announcing older people would have to take on more burden for care, dubbed the dementia tax by media. A coalition of Labor party with the Scottish National party (SNP) with 50 seats and the Liberal Democrats with 10 seats is now a possibility.

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Germany opposes aggressive buying of the bonds of Italy and Spain by the European Central Bank. Prime Minister Zapatero of Spain calls on the ECB to take action as Spanish bond yields reach 7% on Nov. 17, 2011. Germany sees the crisis as serving a constructive purpose as forcing the fiscally unstable countries to make changes.