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As Lyrarc would say a new culture is taking hold in America. Call it centrism or popularist, rejection of neoliberal whatever that term means, or any other term, it is basically about following good common sense, one's observation of real life and what is working or not working for ordinary Americans. Republicans and Democrats are shifting to policies that worked under Franklin Roosevelt, Harry Truman and Dwight Eisenhower, and to views expressed by John F. Kennedy for a fair society that respects the work and dignity and quality of life of all Americans of every class and level of education. And oppose business monopolies, oppose efforts to restrict workers rights. There is a growing sense in both parties that the policies of Reagan, Clinton, Bush and Obama have not worked for ordinary people in America. These are seen as wasted three decades that plunged America into foreign wars, let manufacturing decline, reduced standard of living, let its infrastructure deteriorate. This is why president Biden has achieved remarkable success in putting together legislation with support from key Republicans including McConnell for chips, science, infrastructure and other investment spending. Leonhardt is hardly alone in seeing that this is the path America will take in the coming decades. What is significant now is that the culture and mental framework itself is being transformed. ...

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U.S. president Obama offers his own assessment of the divisive rhetoric of Trump and its origins in the way the Republican Party has opposed him throughout his two terms, including opposition to Obamacare, and ways to tackle poverty, joblessness, without offering alternatives. He says conservative news outlets encouraged this trend till Mr. Trump said he could do this better by raising the level of rhetoric. Democratic candidates Hillary Clinton, Bernie Sanders and voices in the Republican Party are critical of the way Trump conducts his rallies, and the abusive rhetoric for Latinos, Muslims and minorities.

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The U.S. attorney's office in Manhattan filed charges against Swiss bank Wegelin for helping Americans hide $1.2 billion in secret accounts at the bank. Even after UBS was being prosecuted for similiar charges, Wegelin, the oldest bank in Switzerland, is said in the indictment to have pursued the UBS clients to open accounts with Wegelin. Clients were told that Wegelin based in St. Gallen, Switzerland had no overseas business and was less susceptible to legal enforcement. UBS admitted to conspiring to engage in fradulent activity in 2009 and paid a $780 million fine.

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One sees the "quintessential IBM-er", close confidant of Sam Palmisano, and the involvement with Ms Chiesi, where insider information is excahnged over dinners. Questions arise about the ethics prevailing at the country's supposedly high standard maintaining firms such as IBM and McKinsey where another high ranking executive Anil Kumar faces similiar charges. Did these senior managers not ask themselves what was the right thing to do or was the dividing line between ethical and unethical simply blurred. Top ranking executives at Siemens were also found making decisions where they could not see the difference.

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This is the biggest climate bill in history. The NYT looks at the $369 billion Biden Climate bill to show how it will cut carbon emissions by 40% by 2030 over 2005 levels.

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Investigators cited in Congressional hearings say the blowout preventor, a 450 ton set of valves, in the BP oil rig explosion and leak, had a dead battery and was leaking hydraulic fluid. It was the last recourse to prevent an accident. The "deadman switch" that is a device used to trigger the preventor if it loses communication with the rig, as it woud in the event of an explosion, did not work because at least one of its two batteries was dead. The leak in the hydraulics that control the valves could have made the valves not able to function as required to shut the well down.

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Shell's new CEO in 2014, Ben Van Beurden, says Shell needs to "sharpen its performance" after a decade of efforts to boost production and heavy spending on long term projects. Shell's 4th quarter 2013 earnings showed profit was 71% less than the prior year as spending surged. Cash flow was exceeded by spending on capital projects, acquisitions and dividends. He told a news conference profit was "too low" and spending too high. Big projects had in his view "convoluted" things for setting targets for cash flow and production. He says Shell will suspend plans to drill in the Arctic and will not drill in Alaska.

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Greg Ip points out in this WSJ analysis that the new NAFTA after negotiations and warnings from Mr. Trump to scrap NAFTA, is not very different from the old NAFTA. Mexico made concessions on auto exports and labor rights, wages. Canada made concessions for the dairy industry. Yet the combined influence of business interests, Canada's lobbying in U.S. Congress and state governments, and the restraint shown by Trump's own advisers prevailed in limiting Mr. Trump's tendencies to go for a "America first" agenda. It shows, says Ip, that there is resilience in the existing order.  It also shows what future trade negotiations with the European Union and Japan over steel and autos could look like. President Trump will continue to face resistance within from his advisers and from exporters, business, Congress, on following an exclusively "America First" agenda. President Trump will need to extol NAFTA in its current version the USMCA, U.S. Mexico Canada Agreement, to get it through the U.S. Congress in 2019.   Mexico's main concessions on autos were to agree to potential tariffs if exports exceed 2.6 million vehicles.  This keeps Mexico's status as a major auto export hub intact. Auto experts say VW and Mazda may simply pay the tariff of 2.5% for lower priced models assembled in Mexico that do not qualify for duty free entry instead of shifting production to the U.S. Current shipments from Mexico are not affected as U.S. demand is weak. Labor rights and higher wages in Mexico's auto industry are a win-win for Mexico and the U.S.. They are supported by the socialist administration of newly elected Mexican president Obrador. Canada's main concession was to expand U.S. access to Canada's protected dairy industry, with Canada already prepared to make the concession. Mr. Trump had also to consider the possibility that excluding Canada from the USMCA would have not passed Congress, and face even more resistance in a Democratic controlled Congress after 2019 elections.  The support Canada has received in Congress does not extend to China, which gets much less support in Congress, leading to higher uncertainty in the negotiations with China and possibly different outcome with the size of the trade imbalance of $1 billion a day factored in.   ...

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The truth is very different from the rhetoric coming from the Obama administration about helping Main Street America and ordinary workers against "fat-cat bankers," says Goldfarb. Under the Obama administration banks have grown larger and gained more influence over administration decisions. No conditions were made part of the agreement that would require banks to lend a portion of the money handed out to the banks to ordinary borrowers. And not much of significance was done to help homeowners under water, which would enable a faster recovery. In this respect the policies slanted in favor of banks of the Obama administration worsened the prospects of an economic recovery. Experts from Reagan advisor Martin Feldstein- who as early as 2008 advocated serious help to homeowners under water to reduce principal and interest- to the FDIC's Sheila Bair and Princeton Prof. Krugman, across the ideological spectrum, perceived this being in the national interest. Feldstein's first op-ed on his plan appeared in the Wall Street Journal on 3/7/2008, followed by ones on 4/15/2008, 10/4/2008, 1/20/2010/ 10/12/2011 in WSJ, and a oped on 10/30/2008 in the Washington Post, repeating the call for siginificant debt reduction to homeowners. Banks had extraordinary influence on successive administrations in the U.S., both Republican and Democratic- the Clinton, Bush and Obama administrations- so that policy actions could be distorted from what would otherwise take place. A study by two University of Michigan professors shows that banks did not increase lending after receiving government money. Instead taxpayer money was used to invest in risky securities for profits from short term price movements, resulting in gains of about 10% in investment returns. Ran Duchin, one of the two professors, says helping ordinary borrowers was not the most profitable use of capital for banks. Without the necessary conditions from the Obama administration, the banks depolyed capital in ways that did not help the economy. Similiarly when banks needed to be restructured no preparatory action was taken because of resistance within the administration- a request by President Obama to Treasury Secretary Geithner for preparing a plan for the restructuring of Citigroup was ignored, according to a report by Goldfarb and Wallsten on 9/17/2011 in the Washington Post....

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China's tariffs on US products could be called self-respect tariffs as US exports to China are small compared to China's $1 trillion surplus a year. $143 billion mainly oilseeds and grains! US business not willing to rely on US labor created the outshoring that built Chinese industrial growth, shipping out technology in the process, that created this situation. Consultants to Apple at the time such as myself bringing Total Quality of Management from Japan to the US, could see the failure of production quality at the Colorado Springs plant just before Steve Jobs returned to the company in 1998. About 20-25% of PC product was defective on the production lines seen with my own eyes. Looking back I believe it was not just the workers but the managers and engineering that needed to guide and motivate the workers with new ways to build in quality control. These were the days when Apple's Steve Jobs hired Tim Cook to revamp production and ship it to China. American workers got blamed. Yet as Jim Carlton shows in "Apple the Inside Story of Intrigue, Egomania, and Business Blunders," by 1996 a new German CEO Michael Spindler 1993-1996 had driven the company to the ground. The struggle with Microsoft gave Jobs an idea- by shifting production to a low cost location he could make the high margins to outinvest all competitors with new products-ipods, iphones, ipads. There is nothing wrong with American workers and their craftsmanship. Timeline- Steve Jobs returns to Apple 1997-1998 Tim Cook is hired from Compaq to revamp manufacturing in 1998 1999-2000 - the strategy is made to shift all of the production to China. Jobs could generate the margins and quality to challenge Microsoft, and profits to invest in new products 2020 -   the weakness of the strategy is apparent with supply side shock for chips and computers with the pandemic stopping shipping 2024 - after taking small steps to shift production to India does little to shift back to America 2025- Apple facing serious tariffs and the country's mood shifting to Make in the USA tells the new US president DJT it will invest $500 billion to shift production back to America. ...

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Alan Meltzer is a respected voice on US Federal Reserve policies since the time Paul Volcker was Fed chairman He says the Bernanke Fed is making some serious policy mistakes. The first is concentrating on near term events, such as business response to Obama administration policies, over which it has little influence, while neglecting the long term consequences of its policies. The second is its effort to tackle unemployment by interpreting its mandate as a dual mandate of tackling both unemployment and inflation. By tackling one at a time, he says, the Fed is likely to fail totally. The US is unlikely to not feel the inflation that is going on around the world. By ignoring the changes in money supply growth the Fed is making another mistake. His advice is for the Fed to increase interest rates it controls to 1%, to signal that it is aware of inflation risks. Second, the Fed should annonce a specific, detailed plan explaining how it will reduce $900 billon of the $1 trillion banks continue to hold in excess of the legally required reserves. Third, the Fed should end QE II, the most recent round of treasury bond purchases. Meltzer says if the Fed waited for two more months in Nov 2010, it would have found that a double dip recession was not about to occcur and it could have held off from pursuing QE II. Meltzer emphasizes that slow growth and unemployment is not a monetary problem, because of the ample liquidity already in the financial system. Uncertainty about government policy and the future direction has been clarified by the election which will help put the economy back on track. Philadelphia Fed chairman expresses similiar views in other articles and an interview with O'Grady of WSJ....

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The transfer of high speed rail technology by Kawasaki to China, starting with deals made in 2004. Kawasaki did this fearing that other competitors would win the business. It transferred the technology believing that it would be years or decades before China would develop its own capabilities and compete with high speed rail manufacturers in Japan and Europe. Kawasaki says the understanding was that the transferred technology would be used inside China, and not for export. China insists it has improved on the technology that was transferred with its own innovations, and it has the right to compete in the world high speed rail market. A high speed rail line between Shanghai and Beijing is being built using Chinese technology by China South Locomotive and Rolling Stock Industry Corporation (CSR), to cut the time from 10 hours to 4 hours. This is part of a network that will be extended to 9700 miles by 2020 according to the government's plan. As part of its export of high speed rail China Railway Construction Corporation is developing a high speed rail line connecting Istanbul and Ankara. China is bidding for contracts in Brazil and in the USA. The issue of transferring technology is becoming a sensitive one for Germany, Japan and the USA. It means transferring the technology as the price of getting a share of the Chinese market, but paying the price later on with competition from Chinese competitors in the same industry. China is developing its own civilian aircraft that would compete with the Boeing 737 and the Airbus 320. Min Zhu, special advisor for the IMF and former deputy governor of the People's Bank of China, told the Wall Street Journal CEO Council, that China's share of advanced machinery manufacturing could reach 30% of global exports by 2020, from 8% today. ...

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Krugman in the NYT reminds readers Charity Watch gave the Clinton Foundation an "A" rating, better than that given to the American Red Cross. He points out the disservice done by all the innuendo about conflicts of interest. The Associated Press report on the Clinton Foundation he finds part of this creating "shadows"  about meetings with corporate people or others with conflict of interest when all it could find was a meeting with Mohammed Yunus, a winner of Nobel Peace Prize and a longtime personal friend. This points to the need to take a good hard look at each candidate, to look carefully at the details and think about what it means for the country for the next 4 years or the next decade. Krugman fails to mention the economy and job gains and losses, yet this is a huge factor in an election year where upward mobility and the prospects for the middle and working class are major issues. For example Moody's has calculated the loss of about 3 million jobs under Trump and a gain of 10 million jobs under Clinton for the next 4 years.  ...

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Commander David Adams shows how with 250 paratroopers of the 82nd Airborne division, he was able to achieve greater success than 2500 American troops are able to do today in Khost province of Afghanistan. He says he did this by building roads, a spring water system for 12,000 villagers, and other ways to befriend the tribals and villagers, and letting the tribals do the watching and keeping order. Insurgents who operated in the area, or the IED's placed by them, were then reported by the tribals. By working with and befriending the tribals, a smaller number of troops were able to do much more. Adams quotes Mohammed Aiaz, a Khosti advising the Provincial Reconstruction team which Adams headed who says: "If troops don't understand Afghan culture and fail to work within the tribal system, they will only fuel the insurgency. When we get tribes on our side, that will change. When a tribe says no, it means no. IED's will be reported and no insurgent fighters will be allowed to operate in or across the area." This is a very significant observation. To repeat Aiaz: if troops don't understand the Afghan culture and fail to work within the tribal system they will only fuel the insurgency. And adding what Adams say is needed, it means roads built and irrigation canals built or old ones repaired, visible evidence for the Afghan villagers to see of progress, something reporters like Dexter Filkins are saying in their reports, and which is also being told to McChrystal in Filkins recent NYT magazine artice on McChrystal. When told this- McChrystal -whose whole training is as a Special Forces commander who flies in by helicopter to Afghan villages- has only this reply "it takes time" and again at the next stop "it takes time." See the groups for -Commander Adams, and for Dexter Filkins which touch on similiar development issues....

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Friedman quotes the Israeli newspaper Haaretz on the intransigence of both the Palestinians under Abbas and Israelis under Likud leader Netanyahu. The Haaretz account of the currrent state of Israeli-Palestinian relations said the situation was close to where it was at the turn of the century, when it was considered a goal just to have Palestinians and Israelis sit down and talk to each other. Friedman suggests Netanyahu offer a 6 month freeze on new settlements as a way to get the Palestinians to negotiate a new peace; saying it costs Israel little as there are already 300,000 new settlers, and the prospects for a settlement make this worthwhile. He also recounts the fears of both sides. The Palestinian side sees the new settlements as sending the message that Israel wants two states, one in the pre-1967 borders and the other in the post-1967 borders, both belonging to Israel. The Israelis fear the Palestinian's covet some of the land that is now inside Israel, but was once part of the old Palestine; and have never reconciled to the co-existence of a Jewish state alongside a Palestinian state, or a Jewish people's co-existence alongside a Palestinian people....

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The first presidential debate in Denver, Oct 3, 2012. For the first time Romney came out as a recent Republican governor of Massachusetts, the most liberal leaning state in the U.S. For a reason that remains a mystery, except that Romney had to shore up support with the conservative base of the Republican party, Romney did not aggressively adopt positions that would appeal to the vast majority of Americans- from people on foodstamps which he said in this debate had increased by millions under the Obama administration, working class Americans, ordinary Americans about to lose insurance with higher premium costs from the unending increase in the cost of healthcare, seniors on Social Security, workers insecure or losing jobs as the economy fails to recover, and young people who cannot find work. As governor of Massachusetts Romney had to be able to address the needs of different income groups, the middle class and working Americans, and his own father who is his role model was a governor of Michigan, a liberal leaning midwestern state with the largest number of autoworkers in the U.S. He asked Obama directly how he could have focussed on Obama care and passed it without a single Republican vote when 23 million Americans were out of work and the first priority should have been high unemployment. Obama responded by saying he would defend the middle class but did not say what he would do in the next 4 years that was different from the economic policies between 2004-2008. Romney made clear that he was not going to reduce taxes if it would increase the deficit even though Obama said Romney planned to increase taxes by $5 trillion and worsen the deficit. At one point Romney said looking at Obama that he could own a house, a plane, but could not own the facts....

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The funny German ad for the Jazz is playful and funny. Its a redesigned Honda Fit minicar sold in Europe as the Jazz. Acura's TSX is essentially a European Honda Accord. Saturn is offering a version of the European Opel Astra compact. Ford is bringing the Fiesta here from Europe as the new Verve compact car and it unveiled a prototype of a New York City taxi built on a van Ford sells in Europe. VW is planning to bring more European cars here and build a factory in the US. And Mercedes is brining models here equiped with its new Blue Tec diesel engines. And Daimler is bringing its tiny Sart Fortwo car to the US with a website that has taken 30,000 orders already. The market is going global for cost reasons. And its a market looking more and more like the European market where the local carmakers and the foreign carmakers are all jostling for a share of the pie with a fractured market and each car maker having a small share of the market. Ford, GM and Chrysler compete with Toyota, Honda, Renault-Nissan, VW, BMW and Mercedes all with a small share of the overall market and all these companies now operating as global companies with operations all over the world and building models now for a worldwide market. Ford is clearly following this trend and Mullaly wants to see good European modelsbrought quickly into the US and costs for developing models shared across a worldwide market. Smaller size also works to bring European and Asian models adapted to the US because the US market is moving towards fuel efficient smaller cars. So there is a convergence from a number of angles, for it to make sense to build a good car and sell it in as many places as possible, and the old region based logic does not make sense any more....

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The BBC's Political Editor, Laura Kuenssberg, says there are significant hurdles to reaching an agreement in talks between Conservative Party leader Theresa May and Jeremy Corbyn of the Labour Party. Labour seeks some assurance on Britain remaining in the customs union. Ironically the very reason Brexiteers such as Mr. Davis and Mr. Rees-Moog oppose the Theresa May deal - the arrangement on the Irish backstop a way for keeping the borders open between the two Irelands - is the reason Labour could find a way to support an agreement with Theresa May. For the Brexiteers this is unacceptable because it would keep Britain indefinitely in the EU.  There are two other obstacles. Theresa May has promised to resign after negotiating a compromise with Labour Party. Would her successor including possibly a Brexiteer such as Mr. Boris Johnson, support the agreed to deal with Labour. This is highly unlikely. Another obstacle is that a majority of Labour party members of parliament favor a second referendum, a ratificatory referendum, or a confirmatory referendum whatever you call it.  A related article today on this issue in BBC News by Katya Adler describes the person on the other side, the person who heads Germany's ruling CDU Party, and who is likely the next chancellor. This is AKK, Anne-Margaret Kampbrauer. She wrote an article in The Times about a month earlier with other German leaders saying she would love to see Britain change her mind and stay in the EU. She is in favor of a second referendum. Parts of the Conservative Party also support a second referendum- those Conservative MP's who are boxed in between the extreme Brexiteers who care for nothing except their vision of Britain outside the EU as a Franco-German arrangement, and the MP's who left the Conservative Party or now support a second referendum.  Kuenssberg says that necessity is the mother of invention and something could come out of the talks between May and Corbyn- but the obstacles she mentions may not be overcome leading to a new popular vote as the best option. ...

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Most questions about the vaccines from Oxford, Pfizer and Moderna are answered in this Q&A in The Times.  The Oxford vaccine is the only vaccine that is being provided at cost to the public at a cost of 4 pounds, Pfizer using German technology at 15 pounds and Moderna from Cambridge, Massachusetts, at 28 pounds. The Oxford vaccine can be stored in a fridge, the others use mRNA technology of messenger RNA which requires ultra low temperature storage. Astra Zeneca could have handled the trials and methodology for results in a better way. As the two trials one that produced results of 62% and the other results of 90% cannot be combined to give results of 70% but are two distinct and separate trials. However too much emphasis has been placed on the vaccine, as other prevention measures remain important for 2021. Other vaccines are being developed in Britain with new technology and in India by ICMR which are in trials stage and about which not enough is known. The Russian and Chinese vaccines have not released detailed data limiting their use around the world. ...

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David Reilly says the Fed's response to the large volatility in the stock market after the credit downgrade of the U.S. to AA+ makes sense. The Fed's Open Market Committee voted 7-3 on August 9, 2011, to keep interest rates exceptionally low till mid-2013. With credit markets working and the financial system having sufficient liquidity the Fed did not need to take drastic action. Coming only a short period after the end of QE II, a QE III could be seen as an over-reaction. Another reason for the Fed's action- more pressure was needed for the U.S. government and Congress to shoulder responsibility for the economy. In an earlier statement the Fed had pointed out that the Fed by itself can only do so much and this is consistent with that thinking. There are important headwinds from housing, large consumer debt, deficits, and high unemployment that the Fed alluded to in that statement that will take time to reverse with policy action on several fronts over a longer period. In the speech made on June 6, 2011, U.S. Federal Reserve chairman, Ben Bernanke, said "monetary policy cannot be a panacea."...

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Wirecard has filed for insolvency.The $2 billion missing in a bank account for Wirecard is more than all the profits it has made over 10 years. It got off the ground in 2016 after Credit Suisse and Softbank took interest in investing. This report in the WSJ shows the hazy history of the company and the details about the missing money in the bank account in the Philippines. Ernst and Young says it was deceived, and the money did not exist in the accounts, as reported in this video by the WSJ. The billions of dollars invested in companies like Wirecard, WeWork and other companies, could easily have funded the PPE equipment, facial masks, and other healthcare equipment held as a reserve for emergencies such as this pandemic, in any large region such as North America or the European Union.   For every Wirecard there are 10 others in every region of the world. Just in the last month several imploded including a coffee venture copied right off Starbucks each involving losses of billions of dollars. ...

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Should 33,000 member Boeing machinists union approve a 25% wage increase over 4 years or ask for 40%?  It has been a long time since a CEO pleaded with union workers to not go on strike. Boeing has negotiated a 4 year 25% increase wage settlement, no non union plants in the South. “I ask you not to sacrifice the opportunity to secure our future together, because of the frustrations of the past. I also know there are employees considering another path—and it’s one where no one wins." We suggested Stephanie Pope coming from a family of machinists for CEO- her dad worked at the Boeing plant. Pope says Boeing has a $60 billion debt pile and the Alaska Airlines accident with a bolted door coming loose midair. Pope says- "In past negotiations, the thinking was we should hold something back. Let me be clear: We did not hold back with an eye on a second vote.” ...

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Weidner gives 10 reasons to be wary about buying Facebook shares. The biggest may be that the value has peaked, especially when this is validated by the large number of private holders selling their shares including Goldman Sachs. The percentage of IPO shares that are being sold by private holders in the Facebook IPO is 57%, compared to 28% for Google. Clearly something is going on.

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Leon Panetta, former U.S. Defense Secretary, answers questions from a CNN correspondent and GW professor at George Washington University in Washington D.C. He says President Obama dropped the ball when it came to taking on Congress over budget cuts and on tough issues in Iraq and Syria. Panetta says he told Obama that getting back into the ring was necessary to get things done.