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Coorodination, forbearance and multilateralism are three ways to keep economic nationalism from disrupting a global trading system that has benefitted all countries. Even the small moves to help home countries like the the move for US steel in the American stimulus projects, and the demonstrations supporting "British jobs for British workers", and other steps that quietly find their way into individual countries efforts to protect their home industries and jobs, can over time build up into something that would exaggerate the size and extent of this economic downturn. Forbearance and leadership from the US government on this issue and by leading developed countries is vital. So is the effort to develop a coordinated effort through close consultation and joint monitoring of progress. And equally important is multilateralism which works to help emerging countries hit hardest, and help prevent millions from sinking back into poverty, thereby destroying the hope and aspirations that had propelled the global progress in improving living standards....

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Zaragoza a city of 700,000 is the capital of Spain's fastest growing region, and its halfway between Barcelona and Madrid. It has grown rapidly. The arrival of GM here was a big turning point in 1982. The GM plant here can turn out 2000 sub compacts, small minivans and delivery trucks a day, now it is one of 7 GM plants in Europe to suspend production for 2 weeks in October to work off inventories. About 600 of 7000 workers were laid off. Young people here who have never seen anything but good times see this as a big shock. And its a sign of how things across Europe are shaping up. Spain's economy contracted by 0.2% this summer. The European Commission expects the 15 nation eurozone to be flat next year with no growth, but this is an early estimate and may be revised to show a contraction as the economic downturn is just beginning.

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Auto parts makers employ 600,000 workers concentrated in 7 states and also supply foreign carmakers in the USA. They are asking for access to TARP or other government money as they are feeling the effects of this downturn. Carmakers are using the stuy by the Center for Automotive Research that says 3 million jobs will be affected. However bankruptcy law allows the carmakers to continue to operate, and gives the automakers an opportunity to renegotiate all labor contracts on the basis of the new realities in the American economy, as demand collapses and credit is tight and companies need rescue money from the government. Douglas Baird, a Professor at the University of Chicago Law School who specializes in bankruptcy law says that this 3 million figure is laughable as modern bankruptcy law is designed to protect against that, in effect suggesting that companies like the airlines that are operating in bankruptcy can continue to operate as before but do so with serious restructuring.

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US president Biden feels the tax system is not fair for most Americans and the Trump tax cuts favored the wealthiest Americans. Detailed studies from universities Chicago, Harvard, Princeton and Treasury Department on 2017 Trump tax cuts lowering taxes for corporations from 35% to 21% for top corporate tax rate, and accelerated investment spending deductions, show much of the investment that took place after tax cuts in 2017 would have taken place anyway. And that the tax cut did not pay for itself, adding $100 billion to the national debt of $34 trillion each year. Striking was the point in the studies that said that instead of $4000 the average American only benefitted by $750 per year, most of the benefits going to the wealthiest and corporations. Many of the largest corporations tech and oil companies pay less in taxes than any notion of fairness would call for sometimes much less than ordinary workers.  Biden now proposes the tax increases for corporations to go up to 28%, higher taxes on foreign profits, and the corporate minimum tax increased from 15% to 21%. And for employees paid more than $1 million corporations not to be able to take deductions. ...

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Vice President Harris speaks at Carnegie Mellon University in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, about a fundamentally different economic vision for the country- one for the Middle Class and the other for the wealthiest in the country. "For Trump our economy works the best if it works for the people who own the skyscraper, not those who build the skyscrapers, those who wire them, the people who mop the floors." "I have pledged that a strong middle class will be the defining goal of my presidency. It is not about ideology, it is about common sense. It is just common sense." "Like generations before us let us be inspired by what came before us. I believe in what FDR called "bold persistent experimentation." "I believe in free and fair markets- in transparent rules of the road. To respect the rights of unions, and workers, and fair competition. And where this is violated I will hold them accountable. I believe the active partnership between the government and the private sector is the best way to unlock the opportunities in our Economy." ...

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About two thirds of China is urban people but only 48% have residency rights, meaning about 250 million people are not getting the benefits of schools, pensions and healthcare in cities. Ministry of Human Resources shows only 22% of migrant workers have these benefits.  There are about 67 million Chinese children left behind by their parents in rural areas as they search for jobs in cities. These children do not see their parents often, sometimes not at all in a particular year. They have suffered lack of parental attention and have poorer schooling. In 2024 as some of these children grew up and became migrants themselves they did not want want happened to them happen to their children, and delay having children.  China's government considered rural couples as a good way to makeup for low birthrates. This has been proved not to be the case. China's household registration system is call hukou- it restricts access to healthcare and schools for migrants and discourages migrans who live in factory dorms or other restricted housing arrangements from taking children with them. Rural incomes are less than half of urban $3000 vs $7000 a year. ...

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He is one of the authors of chapters in Project 2025. He is also the deputy OMB director in the first term of DJT 2016-2020, and someone with a great deal of experience in running the Office of Management and the Budget. He is for the Republican line of cuts to the Budget to maintain the deficit within reasonable limits. Yet with the need for investment in the country for growth and to support income growth for workers and families there is no monolithic position in the Republican party. Much of Biden infrastructure investments have supported growth and fill need for restoring aging dilapidated American infrastructure and has gone to southern states and mountain states mostly Republican. MAGA as its Biden counterpart is also about infrastructure investment and rebuilding America through investment. Under DJT it is also about spending these dollars wisely, efficiently and with due oversight which is also an imperative. The difference with the European Union with near zero growth in 2024-2025 and the 2.7% growth in the US is this willingness to take some risks and invest to rebuild the Nation under Biden + MAGA. ...

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Juarez, the city across from El Paso, has done well in the last 10 months with 27,000 jobs added in the maquiladoras. These foreign owned factories continue to attract business interest even with a drug war raging in the background. The reason is that Juarez connects straight to American Interstate highways and this makes it possible to deliver goods in 3-4 weeks in some cases from the time of order compared to 10 weeks for China. And wages can run as low as $4.21 an hour. Companies get incentives in the tax treatment and worker training is supported by the local government.

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The overall unemployment rate for highschool dropouts ages 16-24 in the U.S. is 29%. The situation is dire for minorities with the even higher rate for minorities.

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Chinese leaders including Xi Jinping have frowned on the accumulation of wealth and the IPO pay day, says this report in the WSJ. The largely unregulated company Alibaba in its role as a financial business, its complex ownership structure, and practices, have met with skepticism from China's financial regulators. They see the financial operations of Alibaba and its businesses as operating with little financial oversight and the state having to assume risks if something failed. The company's business model of payments app Alipay, mutual fund, voluminous data collection, operations as small loan provider to half a billion people, are seen by Chinese leaders and president Xi as posing unknown and unclear risks when not properly regulated. Commercial banks are subject to  tough regulations and capital requirements that Alibaba has avoided. State owned banks supply Alibaba with majority of the funding and take on most of the risk even though Alibaba makes profit from the transactions, is the perception of regulators. China's export model and manufacturing have enable it to create the banking capital on which such internet business models have thrived. In a world where supply chains are being redone, and following the pandemic, there are questions about how businesses that were created in the period before the pandemic should operate in a different environment. ...

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In Biden's favor the midterm elections showed that for all the concerns about that election Mr. Biden navigated each situation well drawing support from all segments of the population. There was much skepticism about the passage of legislation to invest trillions in chips, science and infrastructure, Yet by winning two key votes of Manchin and Sinema president Biden got the job of investing in America done. The Inflation Reduction Act also kept the president's priorities for helping the average worker and families. At the outset of his campaign for 2024 president Biden faces low ratings. Nate Cohen points to lower support from non white voters. Yet when one looks at the 2020 elections and the last midterm elections it is clear that America is moving back to the days when white voters in all income groups support of the Democrats remained strong. The Obama period could be a temporary situation of Democrats having lost their anchor in manufacturing communities and trade unions as well other segments of the population, depending on 90 percentage points of minority support to pull through. Biden is headed back to the days of Wilson,  FDR and Truman, when whites less educated or more educated gave their support to the Democrats. This makes independent voters crucial and Biden's appeal has to be based on how much he can deliver to voters in infrastructure, in jobs and in hope- the prospects of America for the younger generation. Economic prospects of America can further improve in 2023-2024 as Biden's program for Investing in America moves forward rapidly.    ...

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Though tens of thousands of workers in the French rail network are protesting in the streets about changes in the labor laws, the atmosphere in the National Assembly where president Macron has an absolute majority is different. In the National Assembly most of the legislators are young, inexperienced and there for the first time after the recent elections. Most owe allegiance to president Macron and his party En Marche. The labor code changes were passed without much discussion and on a thumbs up or down vote.  Legislators from Mr. Macron's party are seen by older surviving legislators from an earlier period in French politics as arrogant and do not consult with older legislators. The entire sociology of the National Assembly is overturned and presents a complete culture shock, says a leader of Macron's party who selected members for seats in parliament. Three fourths of members are here for the first time, 60% in Macron's party En Marche. About one third never held public office before. These members spend a whole week in parliament instead of the few days during the earlier Assembly. Yet for all the work and enthusiasm these members act as more of a rubber stamp for Macron's policies instead of offering healthy discussion so that policies can be modified where needed to better accomplish the goal of changing the French system where it can be improved. The result is a form of government that critics increasingly see as autocratic. For Macron this means the lack of a process of consultation that could improve legislation and increase consensus, creating larger support for the changes to the labor laws and the pension system. ...

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Josh Gotbaum, head of the U.S. Pension Benefits Guaranty Corporation and the reorganization of American Airlines (AMR). Gotbaum's strong response made AMR reverse its decision to shift $9 billon in pension liabilities to PBGC, which would have increased PBGC's current deficit by one-third. PBGC is funded by insurance premiums paid by companies sponsoring private sector retirement plans. It has handled 10 pension defaults since 2002- nine in the airline and steel industries. It deficit stood at $26 billion in Sept. 2011, up from $23 billion the prior year. PBGC funds retirement benefits for 1.5 million people, and sends out 800,000 checks.