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Dropping wheat and corn prices will reduce the effect on increase in inflation for food prices. A recently signed agreement for UN and Turkey to supervise exports of Ukrainian grain to world markets is showing up in declining futures prices for corn and wheat that will show up in lower food prices. A large harvest for wheat and other foodgrains in Russia and Ukraine is also having an impact. Slower economic growth in China from frequent lockdowns and the ailing property sector, could bring oil prices down from the highs. The shift to renewable energy taking on a huge impetus from recently passed legislation in the US Congress for $369 billion investment and similar moves in Europe with a 15% required reduction under new EU rules could have the same effect of pushing down fossil fuel prices from their highs. This suggests Fed chairman Powell's sense that the economy would improve in the second half is consistent with international developments. The war in Ukraine could also have a possibility of coming to a close in coming months with Russian gains in the east and Ukraine recovering lost land around the Black Sea in the south. Decades of fighting in Ukraine may have obscured the fact that the eastern parts of Ukraine voted in pro Russian governments in the past and the western parts of Ukraine have voted in pro EU governments. The war could end with a settlement around these new boundaries. This would also enhance president Biden's foreign and domestic policy achievements and help the US focus on climate change actions, building new supply chains, rebuilding its manufacturing, its leadership in science and technology, its alliances with EU, and with Japan and India in the Indo-Pacific. ...

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When even the NYT, or the host of CBS television Face the Nation does it poorly, how are independent voters, and voters leaning Democrat or Republican, or leaning not vote, to have a clear idea of policies?  This review of Trump statements about Harris statements on red meat, ICE, law enforcement, fails to get down to the policies she has stated at Wake Tech in North Carolina and in other places before this. It also does not address the Trump plan to end tax on Social Security which would lead to about $550 going to seniors but lead to a cut of 25% in Social Security in 2032, defunding Social Security and Medicare. Immigration- the first thing Harris would do as president is to sign the legislation written by Republicans Lankford, McConnell with the backing of the party and agreed to by president Biden that will in effect close the Border with Mexico and fix the asylum policy, not done in three decades. Cost of Living- Harris policy on price gouging is for taking the action that companies follow and play by the rule on pricing, so that they do not take unfair advantage of the public. It is not about passing a law or fixing prices. This has been done in Texas and in Kentucky, other states. Restrict rent to 5% increases and increase the supply of new houses by building 3 million new homes, $100 billion to be allocated for fixing housing supply shortages.   ...

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This report in the WSJ points out inflammatory content posted in India by Facebook that creates divisiveness in India between communtiies and ethnic groups, revealed in a WSJ Investigation. This comes at a time when the Indian government is focusing all its efforts and energies on building infrastructure and development projects under "sab ka vikas, sab ke saath, sab ka prayas, sab ka viswas," which means development for all, by all, with everyone's efforts, and with everyone's confidence." Polaraized content has no place in the country and its mission for development for all.  This report says the Indian government has threatened to jail employees of Facebook, its WhatsApp messaging service, and Twitter Inc. if they did'nt comply with data or take down requests, as reported in WSJ in February. The Indian government is determined to take action to prevent such content or content harmful to children being put out. In 2020 India banned TikTok and other social media platforms. Twitter was asked to block hundreds of accounts in India for posting what was seen as inflammatory material by the Indian government, according to this report. ...

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Maggie Haberman has covered Donald Trump from the period before he ran for president in 2016. Here she looks back at this period and reflects on the trial in New York with Judge Merchan, the campaign trail, and reflects on what it all means today to the people of the 51 states. She says it shows a former president who sees his best days in the 1980's when the Trump Tower was built, the connections with the New York elites who at once ignored and embraced this new view of the world and a place for greed in this world. It is also a period that began with Reagan Bush and the start of the Iran Iraq wars, the Bush war in Afghanistan, the Clinton embrace of economics that led to decline in US manufacturing, the 2009 financial crisis and Obama's continued war in Afghanistan- a period of decline in standard of living of the American people and failure to invest in essential infrastructure to improve quality of living.

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Britain's National Health Service has setup a medical review of gender treatment of young people. It's conclusion after 4 years of research- "The reality is that we have no good evidence on the long-term outcomes of interventions to manage gender-related distress.” This NHS review found no clear proof that  gender dysphoria in children or teenagers was resolved or alleviated by what is called gender-affirming care, where a child's declared “gender identity” is affirmed and supported with social transition, puberty blockers and/or cross-sex hormones. After Cass the British government issued an emergency ban on puberty blockers for children under age 18. A similar approach is being taken in the Scandinavian countries, and in Netherlands, France, Germany, Belgium, Switzerland, the move is away from medical treatment of gender issues. American medicine, Cass says is “out of date,” and has put politics ahead of science.Not one American medical association or governmental official has reached out to discuss Britian's Cass report. Says Cass- “I think that’s where you’re misleading the public. You need to be honest about the strength of the evidence and say what you’re going to do to improve it.”   ...

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Britain has fallen way behind under Conservatives Tories misrule. On just about all indicators of the economy the US is ahead of Britain, on cost of living, on investment in infrastructure, on chips and science, on unemployment and on economic growth. The US economic growth was 2% compared to 0.5% for Britain.  Britain under the Tories over the last ten years lost so much ground fighting for Brexit and hurting it's economy. The Tory party is itself torn apart again today by Farage's Reform party, much of it from poor leadership- Cameron, Boris Johnson, Sunak. The result today is that Labour's Starmer says he has a 22 billion pound gap in the Budget that the Tories Conservatives have left him, a hole he says that will lead to Labour cutting winter fuel payment for pensioners this winter.  The US with president Biden is so far ahead of Britain with $1 trillion in investments taking place under the Inflation Reduction Act and $53 billion under the CHIPS and Science Act. Harris plans to build 3 million homes and offer $100 billion to small business to spur growth. There is just no comparison and owes much to president Biden and Harris, and to senior Republicans who supported the administration on the economy. ...

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Andrew Higgins provides this exceptional account of how the political and administrative authorites in Belgium are so divided because of ethnic and poltiical reasons, that they are often paralyzed. It is described as the Belgian disease. Belgium is a country that has French, Dutch and German ethnic groups and languages. Divided along linguistic lines, all centralized authority is resisted, leading to parts of Belgium becoming a haven for terrorist activity. Terrorists from Molenbeek, a part of Brussels, carried out the Paris attacks in November 2015. The German and French media coverage now ridicules the way Belgium is run.

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Latest data from the U.S. Treasury shows it has collected $63 billion in tariffs over the preceding 12 months. Even though there is no agreement on trade with China, president Trump says the U.S. is benefitting from higher tariffs by tens of billions of dollars. In May he estimated tariff revenues could reach $100 billion.This report in the WSJ says this could happen if the the new tariffs of 10% on additional $300 Chinese goods imported to U.S. goes into effect on September 1. This is likely considering that China sees this in different terms than the U.S. such as its sovereignty, whereas the U.S. sees it simply in terms of fair trade. With new elections China may be simply putting things off till the election is decided as Mr. Trump has pointed out. The tally of what the U.S. Treasury gets annually if $100 billion is generated in tariffs goes something like this. Of this $30 billion was generated previously for the U.S. government, so the incremental amount is $70 billion. Of this about $16 billion goes to offset the effect of loss of farm exports to farmers, mainly soyabeans exports to China, through a rescue fund. This leaves additional $54 billion for the U.S. Treasury. Money that could conceivably be put back into infrastructure that the U.S. badly needs in mobile and fixed to improve internet speeds and move up from its low rankings compared to China and other countries. A WSJ report this week shows Germany in worse shape than the U.S., both countries having dismal status in mobile infrastructure- the U.S. at No. 37, and Australia No. 4, Canada No. 3, and even Croatia No. 9. This throws some light on why this trade dispute has become intractable, for China the right of a sovereign nation to move past middle income status even as its telecom technology with Huawei 5G is top class, and for the U.S. the right not to fall behind in advanced technologies such as Telecom. It is also why one hears so much about Huawei and why it has become a flashpoint of the conflict in trade and trade practices. It is thought Mr. Trump is conducting this trade dispute. Yet less known is the fact that prominent Republicans in Congress such as Senator Warner have stated on television talk shows that they are concerned Mr. Trump may give up too much in negotiations that lead to the U.S. not being able to compete in telecom advanced technologies that matter for competitiveness and for national security. What was treated by Bush and Obama administrations routinely without much attention to the consequences is now a top concern for Republicans and others in Congress and business. ...

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India and China find a common ground to work together to maintain access to cheaper Iranian oil supplies in the face of threats from the Trump administration of sanctions on countries importing Iranian oil.

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Baidu has a 64% share of the Chinese market and it is growing. Google is likely to have more difficulty holding on to its smaller share of the Chinese market.

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How third party candidates in 2016 put Trump in the White House is shown in graphs in the WSJ. Since 2000 about 2% of the vote goes to third party candidates such as Greens, Libertarian, and others, in 2016 this reached 6%. It hurt Clinton the most as the Trump lead in Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin was merely 5-10% of 200,000-300,000 votes for independent candidates in Wisconsin,  in Michigan and in Pennsylvania. Hillary Clinton lacked clear focus in her campaign and her years as overseas traveling foreign minister left her out of touch with the alienation of the working class and fragmentation as Silicon valley tech and financial interests intruded into the Democratic party. This had the effect of muddying the focus on the Democrats FDR/Truman working class base and also with America's rural voters suffering from a toxic mix of problems. In 2024 the Kennedy candidacy takes as many or more votes from Mr. Trump says the WSJ. The Biden focus on workers and families gives the Democrats a clear direction along with wage gains by union labor and a resilient economy with low unemployment. This suggests that the independent candidates may not find more traction than the 2% of previous elections since 2000. ...

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Walks in Paris, Rio de Janeiro, Sydney, Seoul, and other cities to explore different parts of the city.

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The major provisions of the Republican House healthcare bill that passed by a vote of 217-213 are- 1. To help people buy insurance coverage the bill offers $2000 to $4000 a year, upto $14,000 a year in credits based mainly on age, reducing them for families making $150,000, individuals making $75,000. 2.  Under the Affordable Care Act insurers cannot charge older Americans more than 3 times for same coverage they offer to younger people, the new bill makes this 5 times. This would increase premiums for older Americans and reduce it for younger Americans. This is the most controversial part of the bill. Older Americans supported the Republican party in the presidential election. 3. The new bill ends Medicaid as an open ended entitlement and places this on a budget with cuts of $880 billion over 10 years. 4. To mollify conservative Republicans a provision allows state to opt out some provisions of the ACA that requires minimum benefits such as maternity care and emergency services. It retains coverage for pre-existing conditions to mollify moderate Republicans. The bill provides states with $138 billion over 10 years to subsidize premiums, provide coverage for pre-existing conditions, mental healthcare and drug addiction. 5. The bill removes the taxes imposed under the Affordable Care Act (ACA) on high income people of about $300 billion over 10 years by repealing a payroll tax increase and tax on investment income. This bill and the ACA offer 2 competing visions on healthcare, both bills passed only by a margin of 4-5 votes in the House. The ACA overlooked the impact on premiums causing discontent among middle income Americans. The new bill lets premiums rise for older Americans in order to keep premiums down for other Americans. This shows the many tradeoffs involved and choices being made, and the lack of a consensus on the issue of healthcare in the U.S., becoming a highly politicized issue instead of the way it is treated in western Europe.     ...

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Mattinson and Ainsley have guided Labour's efforts to win back the trust of working class people and families in the UK. Here they talk about their visit to America and how they found an eerie resemblance to the situation in the UK, the same concerns about cost of living of food and housing or rent, the same concerns about immigration, and the same uncertainty about the future and the lives of their children. Could they ever trust Labour and could Labour deliver for them? During their visit they say -what they see Democrats and Harris already doing- focus on delivering for cost of living and for immigration. Starmer and Harris are both prosecutors and when Starmer talked up breaking up the gangs transporting migrants, and Harris talked about her prosecuting transnational gangs, they were talking about what they would do. Starmer set up the Border Security command, and Harris made the pledge she would sign the tough Republican Lankford immigration Border legislation into law.  ...

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Nikki Haley calls TikTok "a dangerous social media asset" in a Republican debate for presidential hopefuls. Strangely the debate also had in a commercial break an ad for TikTok. Social media has been shown to have an harmful affect on the mental health of children. Use of social media also affects the reading ability and concentration of children and young people. 

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District 10 for US Congress from New York City includes lower Manhattan and brownstone Brooklyn- the Jewish community progressive left pro palestinian Mamdani/Brad Lander fighting Dan Goldman in Democratic primary. The infighting in the Jewish community in New York, Israel's largest in overseas countries, is over the same issue that has divided Israel pro Netanyahu vs anti Netanyahu factions with a new twist pro-Palestinian Jewish progressives and Mamdani supporters in the Jewish community as an added component for division. Israel's strong response to Iranian proxies in Lebanon, its war in Gaza, are causing the same disagreements that are being seen in Israel.