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This WSJ editorial raises serious concerns about the outlines of the nuclear deal with Iran- the AP Protocol does not provide for any time, any place inspections of nuclear facilities, could Iran evade inspections by developing a new facility such as it did with the Fordo complex underground after 2006. After all it reminds readers that Iran signed nuclear protocol agreements in 2003, but failed to observe them, and set them aside altogether after 2006. And Iran is not like reaching an agreement with Costa Rica or Netherlands, says WSJ, it could look good on paper, but with monitoring weak and the Iranian intentions not clear, a lot can go wrong. One of the principal concerns says the WSJ, is the nuclear weapons technologies spreading in the Middle East to other countries as Iran gets a weapon, leading to a disastrous war a decade from now. It says this is why president Obama's response to criticism that its this or war is not enough. A lot of the details says WSJ, have still to be worked out....

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Thomas Fuller of the NYT cites Thai historian Nidhi Eoseewong about the social transformation taking place in Thailand and the emergence of farmers in the northeast as part of the middle class. This change is a result of Asia's rapid economic growth and brings with it new tensions in the social and political fabric of the country. Suthep Thangsuban, a leader of the Democrat Party, is leading protests in Nov. 2013. Because the northeast Thailand voters form about one third of the vote, the older established Democratic Party- allied to the middle class in Bangkok- has failed to win elections since 1992. The established older middle class wants to see less electoral participation that diminishes its role and is pushing for a Senate with half of the members appointed by civil servants and judges. The party of Thaksin Shinawatra and his sister, the current prime minister, appeals to the northeastern voters who want greater representation. These issues are behind the protests in Bangkok and are not likely to be resolved anytime soon as it will take time to integrate the northeast....

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Vanguard economists using the work of Stanford Unversity economists Bloom and Baker and University of Chicago economist Davis have developed their own estimates of the cost of overall uncertainty to the U.S. economy. Bloom, Baker and Davis show the level of overall uncertainty in 2011-2013 is about 50% higher than the level seen since 1985. Vanguard's estimates are for a drag on the U.S. economy of about $261 billion in deadweight losses from this uncertainty- uncertainty in monetary policy, uncertainty in deficit reduction, uncertainty in business investment. Their estimates show 1 million jobs not created, job growth per month lower by 45,000 in the last 2 years, and gdp growth of about 3% per year in 2011 and 2012 in place of the 2% average recorded, in the absence of these uncertainty shocks experienced by the U.S. economy. McNabb points out that the market gains of the S&P 500 are based on an unstable foundation as long as this overall uncertainty is not lifted and create a serious disconnect....

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Mercedes sales have seen asharp decline. May 2009 sales were down 33.4%% from May 2008 for the US region. Steve Cannon who heads Mercedes' marketing effort continues to believe that its performance, innovation and technology that will bring buyers back to Mercedes. The company's $75 million ad campaign in the USA for its updated E-Class Series cars, show tv ad spots with scenes of families admiring classic Mercedes cars at the Mercedes Benz museum in Stuttgart, Germany, and scenes of the car down a forested road. The car then bursts through the wall of the museum, and takes its place alongside other Mercedes cars. In contrast other manufacturers, GM, Hyundai, Honda and others are taking account of the economic downturn and lower consumer spending. Hyundai offers to help customers pay for the cars if they lose their jobs, which GM and Ford has matched. Honda is also keeping pricing emphasis. Mercedes only brings up the price at the end of its ad with the number $48,600 shown, a 9% drop in price for the updated E Class Series....

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With huge losses at RBS, Prime Minister Brown says he is angry at RBS for the excessive risks taken by the bank. A big chunk of losses of 28 billion pounds for 2008 relate to the deal to acquire ABN-Amro. ABN Amro had on its portfolio a loan to chemical maker LyondellBasell, owned by Len Blavatnik a Russian-American industrialist, which filed for bankruptcy protection in January 2009. Says RBS CEO Stephhen Hester, "we doubled up at the wrong time". Now RBS shares have fallen to 11.6 pence or less than the price of a candy bar. And Brown's administration faces growing criticism that the earlier bank rcapitalization and lending plan has not worked, even as new elections are due by May 2010. With the new deal with RBS government ownership goes up from 58% to 70%, and the next step may be nationalization of RBS. In an effort to limit banks losses and help capital needs of banks, the UK government will insure a majority of losses after the banks assume a first portion of the losses.

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Under VW ownership and management, after 16 years of cooperation and $14 billion in investment, Skoda based in the Czech Republic has become a solid competitor. In 2007 Skoda plans to sell 630,000 cars worldwide and its aiming at sales of 1 million cars by 2010. In 2006 sales increased by about 10% in the European market which has been stagnant and beat Toyota as one of the fastest growing brands. Its a leader in quality surveys in Europe, and was tied with Honda for second place in quality in Britain, according to JD Power ansd Associates. Skoda has huge potential in developing country markets as a quality car at lower prices- prices lower than VW cars. VW bought 30% of Skoda in 1991 and by 2000 gained ownership of the whole company. Skoda has also done well in the design of its cars, the Roomster, the Octavia wagon, and the midsize sedan Superb have all received acclaim for their design. VW is considering making a low cost Skoda car to match Renault's Logan which sells for $7000 as a base model....

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Andrew Hall of trading firm Phibro, which traces its roots to the Phipps Brothers a German scrapmetal and raw materials dealer from 1900, and is now a part of Citigroup. He started making big bets after 2004 that futures in oil prices would instead of the then prevailing 20% discount to current prices be priced higher than current prices because of the rising demand from China and India and shortage of supplies. Once he had locked in on this idea and had researched the facts he got the agreement of the head of Ciigroups trading group to place large bets such as buying a lot of oil futures at the prevailing prices. As oil prices shot up this paid off and Phibro kept 20-30%of the profits. Hall made about $250 million dollars and put $100 million into his art collection of new artists. At a time when speculative buying by investors has pushed up oil prices this is a story of one person who made big bets and thrived.

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Hubbard was Chairman of the Council of Economic Advisors under President Bush. His plan is for the government and Congress to allow all residential, mortgages on private residences to be refinanced into 30 year fixed rate mortgages at 5.25% and place those mortgages under Freddie and Fannie. The idea is to have a low enough rate to support house prices. Where the homes are worth less than the total amount of the loan balance the mortgages would be refinanced into a 30 year fixed rate loan to be held by a new agency modeled on the 1930's era Homeowners Loan Corporation. New mortgages would be made of upto 95% of the current value of a home, with owners and servicers of the loan splitting the losses on refinancing the mortgage with the government agency. Servicers would have to accept refinancing on all or none of their mortgages, no cherry picking. And the government could take an equity position in return for the mortgage writedown so that taxpayers do well with a better housing market....

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William Galston points out in this piece in the WSJ that U.S. president Obama's Syria-Iraq policy has lost credibility with the American public. He cites CNN/ORC polls showing rising concern among Americans about terrorism even 1 year before the San Bernardino attacks, at 55% saying that this was likely increasing to 61% in the week before San Bernardino attack, with fears about terrorists being in the U.S. increasing to 81%. As a result only 38% of the American public in a CNN/ORC poll at the beginning of December 2015 approved of president Obama's handling of terrorism, with 68% saying that the U.S. military response is insufficient. A major shift has also taken place on the use of ground troops with Americans favoring use of ground troops by 53% to 45% in the current situation. Here Galston points out the shortcomings of Obama's military response in not conducting an effective use of the military response from the air in setting up safe zones and coordinating efforts with the Kurds and other forces....

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About 110,000 workers, or about 20% of the number of people retiring each year in France, will be able to retire at the age of 60 in 2013 under a new presidential decree. These are workers who started to work at the age of 18-19 and put in 41 years of contributions into the state run pension fund. The decree by French president Hollande leaves the Sarkozy reform of increasing the retirement age to 62 from 60 in place, but creates an exception for these workers, at a cost of 1 billion euros in 2013, and 3 billion euros in 2017. This could also be a way to get labor union support for public spending cuts to reduce the deficit which are expected.

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After a weeks long standoff both sides disengage expeditiously in the India's border dispute with China over construction of a road in the Doklam plateau region of Bhutan. In this NYT report experts in Hong Kong point out that it is not in China's economic interest with an aging population and debt crisis, tense economic relations with the U.S., and for India struggling with modernization issues, to turn a remote border issue into an open conflict. It would also complicate relations in the Asian region with Japan and economic relations with the U.S, countries with whom China's economy is intertwined through supply chains and other ways. Disputes with China and South Korea have in the past affected the Chinese economy, and China has developed trade with India as its companies look for growing markets. India's Modi administration is focussed on the economy. In this context of broader relations the road construction in Doklam appears to be an aberration that is hard to explain except as a miscalculation and poor understanding of the best interests of the region and of the world.   ...

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Daniel Howes makes a scathing indictment of the way in which the keepers of the city of Detroit's institutions have battled to preserve the status quo and prevent much needed changes in conduct at the mayoral offfice, the public schools, and in the auto industry, its unions and communities. He says the staus quo is broken and the city is coming apart.

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The huge changes for upward mobility and women taking place in India can be seen in the way 19 year old Mumtaz, daughter of vegetable cart vendor Qasier Jahan, found a place in India's World Cup Women's Junior Hockey team. She is the third biggest scorer in the Junior World Cup and made the courageous goal for India to set the tone for a 3-0 win over South Korea in quarter finals. Mumtaz is from Lucknow, Uttar Pradesh, which is going through huge changes as development accelerates and new infrastructure is built. 

Athletic coaches saw her ability in sprints at a school competition in Agra which led to their encouraging and supporting her to play hockey. Lacking resources to buy even a hockey kit coaches stepped up and helped the young girl play, learn new skills, and compete in national hockey.

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Anthony Hopkins is Pope Benedict XVI in November's Netflix Movie The Two Popes. Hopkins, a Welsh actor, is now famous for the way he talks about not taking himself so seriously. His view of life, just be glad you are alive and have fun doing things while you can, all this talk about getting to the top, once you get up there you find there is nothing there, just nonsense, all lies. For Hopkins it has freed up a lot of energy and makes him come alive at 81 years. Another thing he says keep working thats the only way to live, and not go into decline. So what better way to take on the role of Benedict, a German pope who becomes the first to resign his office, and have his chosen successor follow him, cardinal Mario Bergoglio of Buenos Aires, Argentina, (actor Jonathan Pryce) succeed him. Just be laid back and fill the role without thinking too much about it. So no intensity, he does not do research, actually a bit clueless, he says. Life is too short to be overconscious about oneself, he was intense once, now since about ten years he just wants to relax. Benedict he sees as an easy role especially with Pryce as cardinal Bergoglio. Fernando Meirelles directs and he is good with that. In the movie a day long conversation takes place, and two people who are from opposite ends of the world and ideologically too, have a sense of lightness about them, talking the World cup and soccer, and Hopkins playing the piano for Bergoglio. Hopkins just intent on having a lot of fun and doing it that way on the set. He sees the to popes as not walking on water, just human beings, and that make it easy for him. The human touches like going along with Bergoglio to watch football, though he nows nothing about it, and having a beer together. When playing Benedict Hopkins tells himself he is just pretending, just kidding, that makes it easy for him. His wife has encouraged Hopkins to relax by taking on painting and playing music. ...

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Efforts to impeach two previous presidents including Democrat Clinton failed in the Senate where the vote requires a two thirds majority. The first impeachment vote against Mr. Trump failed in the Senate. In the House of Representatives only a simple majority is required. Majority Leader McConnell says he will not reconvene the Senate before president Biden takes office. Vice President Pence has refused to invoke the 25th Amendment. House Democrats have moved ahead to vote for impeachment of president Trump for the storming of the Capitol offices in Washington D.C. Their impeachment statement says president Trump's remarks that his supporters had to fight like hell or they would not have a country, constituted incitement of supporters. President Trump won 74 million votes in the last election more than in the 2016 election and lost with Mr. Biden winning 81 million votes after polarization of the country. With such a large portion of the country voting for Mr. Trump Mr. Biden risks his agenda of fighting the pandemic, and other parts of his program, becoming immersed in partisan infighting. This would also result in continuing the division of the country, and continue polarization.  About 5 House Republicans are expected to support impeachment. In the Senate some Republicans say there are impeachable offenses yet only Mr. McConnell and the senator from Utah, Mr. Mitt Romney, favor impeachment.  Mr. Trump's style of governing was controversial from the beginning of his campaign in 2016, strident and taking on critics. He governed through relative moderation compared to his aggressive posture towards critics. For instance on Mexico his remarks offended critics, yet he negotiated a new trade agreement with Mexico replacing NAFTA to ensure worker protections in Mexico, and worker jobs and wages in the U.S. Negotiations with China on trade were conducted by a seasoned veteran, Mr Lighthizer,  who was deputy Trade Representative under Reagan, and negotiated the trade agreement with Japan that worked to reduce Japanese trade surplus in the eighties. On the economy before the pandemic hit in March president Trump made significant progress reducing unemployment.      ...

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The bottom half of all U.S. households have only recently recovered the wealth lost in the 2009 financial crisis. They still have 32% less wealth than in 2003 when inflation is taken into account. The top 1% of households have more than twice as much as they did in 2003. Wealth is defined as net worth that includes houses , savings and stocks minus any debt. The wealthy have 85% of their wealth in stocks and bonds. For the bottom 50% half of the assets are in the house or family home. Economic and regulatory trends have happened in ways that favored the people investing in stocks, and rescued people investing in stocks with policies designed with this purpose by central banks and the U.S. government. By contrast for the bottom 50% buying a home is more difficult today. The problem this WSJ report points out is that the next recession would most hurt the bottom 50%, even before they have recovered from the last one which was a result of shaky practices of banks in financial lending and not some cyclical swing in the economy. Policy was then geared to provide a recovery first for stock markets as a way to economic recovery. The bottom 50% have little stake in the stock market, the top 1% have most of their gains from the stock market. Much of the popular anger comes from the way policies by both Democrats and Republicans differed little in past administrations in the way they approached this in shaping economic policy. As a result infrastructure building and investments in public services took less priority in this period of 30 years with trade imbalances with China building up on the external front, in another side to this development. The shift to Trump and to right wing populists in Europe is only the first phase in the corrective action that has to take place to return to a fairer distribution of wealth that existed before the last 3 decades. Eventually it is not right wing or left wing factions or parties, but healthy policies, that matter to create a better balance for society.  ...

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It took a week longer for each country to impose a lockdown. In China first Wuhan then the whole country went into lockdown and quarantine. The same process is repeated in Europe and in America as authorites see numbers of infections increasing rapidly without strict controls. First the Lombardy region in Italy around Milan, then the provinces in Northern Italy, followed by a complete lockdown in the country on March 10 as infection spread faster without lockdown and enforcement of lockdowns. Germany and Britain follow Spain and Italy on March 20. France followed Spain in the days after Italy's complete lockdown. Macron ordered the lockdown on March 16 with stringent enforcement. Infectious Disease specialists at Imperial College warned of "unintended consequences for the entire nation" if a lockdown of Britain did not take place. The goal is to limit the spread of infections from rapid to slow as public health systems and economic measures are ramped up in preparation for the crisis. Most countries were lacking the preparatory steps having lost time waiting to see what happens next or analyzing data in the vain hope the virus does not spread.  Bad economic results of lockdowns were initially a concern, but this concern became less important as the coronavirus spread rapidly in Europe. Decision makers in Europe decided that not acting forcefully would lead to equally or worse economic outcomes. Public health systems overwhelmed would diminish public confidence rapidly and lead to equally bad or much worse economic outcomes. The European Union executive body has supported state aid, stimulus action and border controls in this crisis. In America and in Europe the hope is that shoring up the safety net with massive aid to businesses and households would buy time to tackle and overcome the coronavirus through a combination of lockdowns, quarantines, contact tracing, large scale testing and medical technology measures. The examples of China, South Korea, Taiwan showed this pathway exists for phased control and reducing fatalities to zero. ...

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Xiaomi is China's leading brand. It is very different from other companies in China and America. It is tightly controlled by its founder Lei Jun who has built a loyal following for the brand  through fan clubs and creating an enthusiastic following. Because the firm is run by founder Lei Jun it can make quick decisions to enter a market. Lei Jun was a computer science student in Wuhan in 1987 as China opened up to the world.  By 2017- in three years from being zero in the Indian market place in 2014- Xiaomi had become the largest smartphone company in India. The company was launched in 2010. Profit margins are thin about 1% in a very competitive pricing market.  Metrics are based on revenue per user of $9 per user from an installed base of 190 million smartphone users, spending 54 minutes a day using Xiaomi's app, game and other services, or 20% of the phone use time. Revenue per user comes from advertising, and from commissions on the apps and games it sells to its user base. In 2015 Xiaomi had a loss, in 2016 sales dropped, in 2017 new products led to a resurgence in the market with sales increasing 68%. As Xiaomi goes into its IPO, experts say much of the $10 billion from the IPO could go into reinvestment as Xiaomi reinvents itself and moves into other internet business. ...

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The U.S. economy added an average of 284,000 jobs each month for October, November and December 2015. In December 292,000 new jobs were added. The monthly rate for the first 9 months was an average of 200,000 jobs. This shows the pace accelerated by Dec. 2015. In all 2.65 million jobs were added in 2015. The unemployment rate is now at 5%. Yet the wage gains are modest, at 2.5% for 2015. The average hourly wage is at $25.24. The labor force participation rate has declined for many years and stands at 62.6%, as many people are too discouraged to look for work- this is the share of Americans having jobs or looking for work. Experts say this is like a huge shadow work force existing on the side that could explain the lack of wage gains, as the official figure of unemployment is not reflecting the discouraged workers who have dropped out of the labor market.

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The risks that China could be stuck in middle income status- plateauing similiar to countries like Mexico in middle income status- grow as China's remains stuck in a state enterprises driven model of growth at the expense of consumers and savers. Japan reached the level of development China is in today in 1970, Taiwan in 1980 and South Korea in 1990. Progress from now on depends on innovation and developing a more open society as shown in the experience of Japan and South Korea, which requires a shift away from most bank lending and funding investment going to state owned enterprises and towards private enterprises and tech startups. The resulting overbuilding has led to a vast misallocation of resources and starving new private enterprises of the large amounts of capital needed. Porter describes the lower level of rural education which has not kept up with the pace of improvement in urban schools, and which poses problems for the future, including a shortage of skilled workers.

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Mukesh Ambani, chairman of Reliance Industries Ltd. has agreed to acquire Infotel Broadband Services Pvt. Ltd. Infotel earlier won the rights in a government auction for wireless broadband space. Mukesh returns to telecom industry after 5 years now that the agreement with the Anil Ambani Reliance ADA Group not to enter each others sectors has been scrapped. Reliance ADA, Bharti Airtel, and Vodafone Essar are focussed on the 3G broadband serivices. With Infotel Mukesh Ambani makes a entry into 4G or fourth generation services. He sees this as an opportunity to push India in an accelerated pace into the digital world, and it will require large scale investment of a kind that he has made in the past using the latest technologies. The Indian government raised $8.23 billion in this auction. Infotel agreed to pay $2.74 billion for its nationwide bandwidth, Qualcomm won rights in 4 regions for $1 billion, Bharti agreed to pay $720 million for 4 areas, and Aircel $747 million for eight areas. ...

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Germany recorded 9% growth, in the second quarter of 2010. Martin Wansleben, managing director of Germany's Chamber of Commerce and Industry, says the recovery pace is too fast and unsustainable. The spurt in growth may be shortlived and was mainly a result of a surge in exports to Asian markets. The countries that benefited from this growth are in Northern and Eastern Europe. France recorded 2.5% growth, Austria and the Netherlands 3.5% growth. Eastern European countries that help Germany export also did well, with Slovakia at 5% and Czech Republic at 3% growth. By contrast Southern European countries, Greece, Portugal, Spain, and countries like Ireland have not benefited. German growth has not resulted in markets for other countries as German consumer spending is tight. See the link to the expansion of the low-wage sector in Germany and the downside of this; with average wages actually falling in Germany in recent years.

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JD Powers survey has lowered its annual sales rate to less than 15 million vehicles going down to 14.8 millon annual sales rate in ths spring 2008. GM and Ford are still looking at sales rate much above 15 million. What if the credit squeeze, oil prices and the recession lower sales to below Powers surveys? GM and Ford now have more flexibility to cut production with their new UAW agreements and this should helpreduce production volume. Also the auto companies have offered buyouts to every unionized employee. Expect further production cuts, as the auto companies are now going in the direction of cutting production rather than flooding the market with incentives. Also the pace of restructuring is likely to accelerate as the economy deriorates in 2008 and beyond. Carefully considering all the information available upto this point in Glinfo it does not appear that things will improve by yearend 2008 as some are expecting, hoping against hope.