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Perceptions of Turkey in Germany are shown here in DW.com. Turkey has 1.5 million people in Germany who vote in this election. About 70% of people in Germany see the opposition providing an alternative as good for the future of Turkey. The general perception is that Turkey is facing a severe crisis after the cost of living crisis and the earthquake, the Ukraine war cutting off food imports, that it needs foreign investment in the economy as a part of the US and European nations. The Republican party in the Opposition led now by a modest civil servant named Kilicdaroglu, was founded in 1921 by Kemal Ataturk when the colonial powers decided to breakup the Ottoman Empire and the Anatolian heartland. It was in Ankara that Ataturk formed the resistance to that plan and setup the modern state of Turkey by doing what Japan did- taking on western institutions, dress, education, and changing from Arabic to an alphabet that would increase literacy. A transformation that was a sort of miracle that was accomplished between 1921 and 1938 under Ataturk's leadership. Ataturk's vision at that time was that Turkey would be close partner to America and Europe. John F. Kennedy taped an audio broadcast on the 25th anniversary of Ataturk's death in 1963 at the White House pointing out Ataturk's achievement and vision. It is to this vision that the Republican party now moves after an effort over 2 decades to move the country back to its Ottoman period. That period happened around 1500. The Ottoman period lasted for only 150 years before it was pushed back in the 18th and 19th century by European powers. Before that Turkey and Constantinople was an integral part of European civilization. In fact modern Turkey under Ataturk and Greece maintained close relations and worked together in a shared responsibility to maintain peace in the Balkans, something almost forgotten today. Greece joined the western nations when US president Truman responded with American assistance during the 1950's, so did Turkey.  ...

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After the National Rally party of Le Pen wins 30% of the vote to Macron's En Marche 15% in EU elections, showing the unpopularity of Macron, Macron responds by calling for snap elections. Macron is taking an aggressive approach to stop NR party as so far  parliamentary elections in France  have led to voters on the left and right veering to the centre to avoid giving the far right National Rally of Le Pen a win. National Assembly elections also require getting 50% of the vote under different rules than EU elections.  Politico points out that the situation is different today as the NR is more in the mainstream of politics. Macron's hope is that the NR would increase its seat numbers from 88 but not as much, and that other parties such as the Republicains and the Socialist parties, the parties that governed France since 1945 would also make gains. He could then appoint a prime minister not from En Marche his party but from the Republicains party of Nicholas Sarkozy, French president (2007-2012), which supports Macron.  ...

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JP Morgan and Citicorp announced profits of $5.4 billion and $3.3 billion respectively in the second quarter of 2011. Christopher Whalen points to one area of serious risk on bank balance sheets, which is second liens or home equity lines of credit. FDIC data show U.S. banks holding $624 billion in second lien loans in the 1st quarter 2011. Core Logic data shows 11 million of the U.S. mortgaged properties - or 23% of all properties- being underwater in March 2011. Of this 4.5 million properties carry home equity loans. The average amount of negative equity for borrowers was $65,000. Whalen says the largest banks are pretending that the second liens are good because interest payments are being made. Borrowers pay only the interest for ten years on many of these home equity lines of credit. He says banks have written off $500 billion so far in assets related to housing, but this has not included much in the way of writing down second liens. If housing prices do not stabilize banks will need to make writedowns of first and second liens. Whalen says this loss is probably as large as the $500 billion already charged off by the banks. For the 1st quarter of 2011, the second liens were $136 billion for Bank of America, and it has written down $6.8 billion in 2010, Wells Fargo had $108 billion, and it had written down $4.7 billion in 2010. J.P. Morgan had $60 billion aso of the 2nd quarter of 2011. JP Morgan spokesman said the bank charged off $3.44 billion in 2010, and $1.3 billion in the first half 2011. Citibank had $46 billon in March 2010....

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Even after receiving 5000 complaints over ayear and half about aggressive short selling that amounted to market manipulation, the SEC did not bring any enforcement cases, according to areport by the SEC's inspector general. Of the 5000 complaints between Jan 2007 and Jne 2008 only 123 were investigated, and no cases were brought.12.5% of emails alleging insider trading prompted an investigation. About 1.38 million emails were handled by 4 staffers, showing horrendous understaffing. In a written response SEC enforcement staff played down the likelihood of naked short selling abuses. It noted that alarge number of cases settle over time. The SEC staff said that the agency needed to "intelligently leverage" its resources and alarge number of complaints provide "no support for the allegations". Morgan Stanley, Citigroup and other frims came under extreme pressure from short selling, and short selling has led to near collapse of many firms during the crisis since the middle of 2008, so its strange that the SEC takes this position. But it is not surprising as in recent years enfocement has been lax, regulation has been neglected almost by design, and resources and staffing are severely short of needs for the SEC's mission to be performed with some degree of confidence....

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Ivan Rogers, Britain's former ambassador to the European Union says ideas about liberation are fantasies, just fantasies. There would be endless negotiation on every issue. After 2 years of negotiations most of the tough questions about Britain's future trading relations with the European Union remain unanswered.

Some just want to get on with the job, including Mrs. May. But the tough questions are not going away as a cross party group in parliament seeks to take control of the process and call for an extension under Article 50 for the March 29 deadline. In addition to the intra party divisions and lack of cooperation from the Labor party, there are doubts in Scotland, Ireland and Northern Ireland about future relations.

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Experts point out that Saudi oil price policies are set on a technocratic basis by a small group of advisors. An oil industry veteran Naimi, 79, leads this group of advisors. This means the new King Salman is likely to follow the same course as his predecessor King Abdullah. Gulf oil officials were expecting a drop to around $50 to $60 a barrel, the drop below $50 has surprised even the Saudis. NYT cites IMF estimates of a loss of oil revenues for Saudi Arabia and its allies in the Persian Gulf of about $300 billion in 2015. The Economist and WSJ reports say that for the long term shale oil production and advance in technologies are likely to play a lasting role in keeping oil prices low. At a time when Saudi society is changing, population growing, an older generation likely to transition to a younger generation in government, the cost of the social safety net and ample benefits will remain a concern for the Saudis for the long term.

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German Heath Minister Karl Lauterbach says vaccine mandates are the only way out of this pandemic. Speaking to German daily Welt he said, gaining immunity through infection was a "dirty vaccination" that made little sense as it would not protect one against a more harmful variant. He saiid that it "would be naive to think that omicron is the end of the pandemic." Omicron would not make one immune to the next viral variant. "No one can guarantee that a variant will not develop soon that is much more dangerous."

Lauterbach says 25 million doses of the Moderna vaccine have been procured that would be enough for 50 million booster shots to be done in the first quarter of 2022.

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Hedge funds significantly underperformed index funds and passive investments in 2009-2015. Hatchuel looks at reasons why this has happened and the unusual environment created by the Fed's monetary policy intervention. Hedge funds reacted in periods of volatility in 2011, 2012, 2013 and 2014 hurting returns.

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Critics say president Macron's appointment of an obscure official, a mayor of a town in the foothills of the Pyrenees (Prades with 6000 people), is a sign that he plans to be both prime minister and president for the remainder of his term. By selecting someone from the right wing Le Republicain party of Mr. Sarkozy, Mr. Macron now hopes to win reelection in 2020 with a shift to the right. His popularity at 35% is way below that of Edouard Philippe the outgoing prime minister who is at 50% of those polled recently.  Mr. Sarkozy and Mr. Macron represent a self focused presidency.

 

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In three months since August 2011, the Indian rupee has fallen from 45 rupees to the dollar to 52 rupees. Analysts at HSBC see a decline in the value of the rupee to 58 rupees to the dollar. Foreign investment in India declined from $6.5 billon in June 2011, to 616 million in September 2011. The Indian economy is expected to see a sharp slowdown with growth estimated at 7.2% in the current fiscal year down from 8.5% in the prior year. Inflation is at over 10% for the last 12 months. The sharp drop in the value of the rupee is expected to worsen inflation. India's imports exceed exports by $80 billion. Any increase in exports in a slowing global economy will be offset by higher cost of imports. India pays for oil and other commodity imports in dollars, and subsidizes fuel and fertilizers, which would lead to a worsening of the large fiscal deficit. It is in this environment that the Congress led government decided to open up the retail sector by allowing 100% ownership in single brand retailing, and 51% in multibrand retailing. Foreign retailers will be allowed to setup stores in cities with more than one million people, of which there are 53 cities in India. Other restrictions are 50% of the required over $100 million investment has to be in back end infrastructure, and 30% of goods sold must be bought from small companies, according to Commerce minister, Anand Sharma. Each of India's 28 states would compete to individually permit retailers to open stores in their state. The investment in the retail sector will come over a number of years....

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According to researchers at AARP and the Economic Policy Institute women over 50 years have a harder time than men of the same age in finding good jobs since the 2008 financial crisis. Older women who were laid off have a very hard time finding employment and steady jobs, as this report by Patricia Cohen in the NYT shows. Age, lack of internet skills, shifting networks, caregiving responsibilities and time off taken to care for children, all have worked against older women over 50 years. A study by the Federal Reserve Bank of St Louis shows that compared to 2006-2007 before the financial crisis hit when about a quarter of the unemployed for women over 50 years were unemployed over 6 months, by 2012-2013 the jobless women for more than 6 months had gone up to about half of the unemployed women in this age group.

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A stroke, a tumor, or live disease mean parents are taking care of children. WSJ shows one family in Woodbridge, Virginia coping with a son in the 50's with dementia. The Naitonal Alliance for Caregiving estimate is there are 3.1 million elderly Americans caring for a son or a daughter.

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With only 63 million metric tons of food storage facilities and 75 metric tons of foodgrains stocks after the 2012 harvest season, India faces an acute shortage of storage capacity. About 3-4 million tons of additional capacity are planned by May or June 2012, and 11 million tons in 2013, according to India's Food Ministry, but more capacity will be needed this year. If not corrected this could mean that about 8 million tons of foodgrains could rot out in the open or in makeshift conditions. This is a major problem as about 200 million people in India are considered to be food-insecure, and an estimated 42% of children suffer form malnutrition.

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The poor kid from Sao Jose Dos Campos 150 miles northeast of Sao Paulo makes it against all odds to play soccer in Sao Paulo. Steve Lowe of the Guardian does this wonderful interview for soccer fans with Casemiro the defensive midfielder for Real Madrid.  Casemiro is all humility, hard work down to the kind of details soccer coach Jurgen Klopp loves to pay attention to in practice, and never forgets the values his mom taught him about not being too loud. And to remember where he came from, to always look for ways to help other kids like him aspiring for a better life. Casemiro says he plays strong and even aggressive, but it is always about using your head in the game, the key was thinking ahead, being better positioned, seeing the move before it takes place. It cost 3 euros per week to practice at a club 6 mile walk away which he could not afford once he came to Sao Paulo. Mr. Moreira who ran the club paid for his boots, food and the fees. When he says he gives 200% Casemiro is speaking with authenticity because it was hard in Brazil for kids from poor families aspiring to make it in club football. He loves to learn, listens well, and he says he watches the errors, thinks like a coach, always trying to read the game, the other team's mind, their coach, what they were trying to get get done. He sees it as his work and does this in a disciplined manner. Casemiro may now be the top player in world soccer today as Real Madrid head to Manchester City under coach Zinedin Zidane. Zidane meant a lot to Casemiro as inspiration in the early days he played in Brazil.   ...

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Nathaniel Taplin of the WSJ says the tariffs put on $50 billion high tech products by the U.S. and retaliatory tariffs on $50 billion products are not about a trade war but a way both countries will negotiate setting out their two positions.  A look at the role of foreign firms in China shows China has access to new technology using these firms as a conduit and these firms are also generating more jobs, being highly productive. These firms Taplin says will set back their investments if no agreement is reached or if it is harder to bring Chinese made products into the U.S. At this time China badly needs this investment and technology access because of their dynamism compared to inefficient state run firms as it struggles under a massive debt load with very high debt to GDP ratio.  A major issue is job growth as companies getting foreign investment are much more effective in jobs generation, delivering 10% of all urban job growth from 2007 to 2016, using just 5.5% of total investment. Return on assets at 9% compares to 4% at state run firms. If this dynamism is reduced or affected in some way China could have to provide more unproductive debt buildup stimulus.  For these reasons China has good reason to make concessions, says Taplin. Trump administration will ask for greater semiconductor purchases, much looser joint venture or foreign ownership requirements, higher Chinese payment for U.S. intellectual property. For all these reasons this is not about a trade war but about serious negotiations taking place so that there is a level playing field in the next phase of competition in high tech between the U.S., China and the E.U. changing the dynamics of the trade relationship in ways that reverse the trends of the past. ...

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Tesla suffered from production issues in 2017 and CEO Musk was not his usual upbeat self.  In early 2018 Musk is back to his usual style predicting big things for Tesla. Just after his company Space Exploration Technologies sent a powerful rocket with a Tesla car into space,Musk predicted making one million vehicles a year in 2020. In 3 months he says a Tesla will cross the U.S. He says Tesla will now be able to make 5000 cars a week of the Model 3.

Another of his predictions is that he will revolutionize production systems and leap over existing car companies. Analysts asked Musk if the Toyota Production System had not already achieved that, Musk says "we don't think so." This report points to changing moods of Musk and periods when he feels high and low, and changing according to the unrelenting stress he finds himself in or indulges in.

 

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European banks have been slow to get rid of risky assets such as collateralized debt obligations, subprime mortgages and other risky assets after the 2007 financial crisis. As a result sixteen top European banks hold 386 billion euros of suspect credit-market and real estate assets, according to Credit Suisse analysts. The Royal Bank of Scotland has 79.6 billion of assets dating from the 2007 financial crisis. Over the three year period since the 2008 financial crisis, the top three U.S. banks shed 80% of this type of risky assets, compared to 50% for European banks. The four largest British banks have reduced these risky assets by more than 50%, and four French banks have reduced these assets by only 30%. At 29 billion euros, French bank Credit Agricole had the largest amount of such risky assets among the leading French banks. This adds to the difficulties facing French banks which also have large amount of loans to customers in Greece and Greece's sovereign bonds. Deutsche Bank has 20.2 billion euros in commercial mortgages and whole loans and 2.9 billion euros in U.S. residential assets including subprime loans. Mediobanca analysts estimate that Deutsche Bank's exposure to such assets is more than 150% of its tangible equity....

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Turkey's inflation rate continues to rise even after a government effort in December to stabilize the economy by stabilizing the lira. Annual inflation jumped from 21% in November to 36% in December, according to the Turkey Statistical Institute. The true inflation rate could be much higher. The ENAGrup estimate after assessing thousands of prices is that true annual inflation is 82%. Ordinary Turks have difficulty affording essential food supplies, says this WSJ report. Turkey has overdependence on the US dollar in its government and bank borrowings which has intensified the impact of the cost increases world wide with the supply chain problems and higher energy prices. Food imports now are much costlier. Depreciation of the lira currency by about 50% added to the impact of the overall global inflation. The lira has come back a bit to 40% loss of value after an unorthodox government plan, yet inflation continues to rise. Deeper problems within the economy that were hidden when the economy was in high growth years are now apparent as the world sees an inflationary surge during the second year of the pandemic. ...

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Young people are priced out of owning a house in Canada, A house on average costs $C715,000 and average income is $C88,000. A room can cost $1500 monthly to rent near campus. Calgary, Vancouver, Montreal and Toronto housing costs even more. This is still the main issue in the election along with tariffs by the US. Conservatives are better placed to find solutions. Shortages are estimated to require construction of 3.8 million houses over 6 years.

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WSJ and NYT, Wash.Post exaggerated defense of Denmark's claims to Greenland. DJT says there is nothing in writing that says Denmark owns Greenland. The NYT, WSJ cite 1916 Treaty that transferred Danish West Indies to US for $25 million.  The agreement in 1916 said Denmark would extend its economic and political arrangements across Greenland, which was the status quo, but this did not give ownership of the island to Greenland. In 1947 US president Harry Truman offered $100 million for Greenland. This was a generous offer and would be around $1.5 billion in today's terms. The agreement of 1916 is superseded by Admiral Perry leading the US Navy's exploration of Greenland all the way to the north of Greenland at the Arctic northern most points in Greenland. The US planted its flag on Greenland at the time. DJT on Truth Social planting the flag is nothing new. Admiral Perry is never mentioned by NYT, Wash Post and WSJ, the television media and Google internet other AI, which gives the Denmark government an opportunity to misrepresent US claims to Greenland since 1890's and leave out Adm. Perry's discoveries in Greenland. By comparison a few Danish boats and Norwegian boats landed in Greenland. Worse it sets up the Europeans for actions that Scott Bessent says are "unwise". It is mainly Denmark and the Nordics who are in opposition, the rest of Europe has no stake in Greenland and would be better off with the US owning Greenland. Danes were a colonial power and cannot bring up the Greenland Inuit population of 50,000 smaller that what would fit into a baseball stadium as they had never sought to help the Inuits. As recently as 1803-1848 Denmark was struggling to abolish the slave trade in its colonies in the West Indies- it is something that can easily be looked up. It was the US with it's Declaration of Independence by Thomas Jefferson that laid out the vision of a free people which also fought the Civil War under Lincoln by the 1860's with loss of millions of lives for a free and fair society, something the European colonial powers failed to do. Denmark should accept the offer of $1.5 billion from the US consistent with the US offer from Harry Truman in 1947, and not use the European Union to create dissension within Europe as it has done so far in a misleading effort that does not serve the interests of Europe. ...

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Aaron Back cites U.S. Bureau of Labor of Statistics figures showing hourly manufacturing wages in 2011 for Japan at a level 89% higher than in South Korea. The decline in the value of the yen to 100 to the dollar is expected to improve the competitiveness of Japan's manufacturing companies in relation to competitors in S. Korea and Taiwan. The higher manufacturing costs in Japan offset some of that advantage. Much depends on Japanese companies recovering in the area of innovation, and improving competitiveness in other ways.

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US efforts to buy or acquire Greenland and Truman's offer in 1946 of $100 million. Truman's offer was made after the war in 1946 following fears that an hostile power could use Greenland for an attack on the US. Greenland was explored for the first time by Robert Peary of Bowdoin College and the US Navy from 1886-1902, in several expeditions from east to west and north to south. He was the first to reach the North Pole, and first to prove Greenland was an island by 1890. It is these discoveries that make the US the original explorer of Greenland. He received the thanks of the US Congress and his expeditions were supported by most of the well known organizations of the US, including the National Academy of the Sciences. It is Robert Peary's prescient insight- he was made Rear Admiral in the Navy- claiming Greenland for the US, was supported by Secretaries of State of the US from Seward in 1867 to others in 1900's and 1946, by Democrat Harry Truman, and today by president DJT. US Commanders inCbief said in 1946 that Greenland was "completely useless for Denmark," and was vital to keep the eastern seaboard of the US secure. It is also as Peary said important to keep the Monroe Doctrine and US leadership in the western hemisphere. ...

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Next stop in the crisis on Wal Street Alt-A mortgages, mortgages that are like prime mortgages in credit scores but lack the documentation to be prime. For investors the fact that a large part of these securities have good mortgages has not made much difference because a chunk of them are perceived to be shaky. This is what happened to Thornburg as investors let its shares drop to below $1 a share even though at Thornburg only one half of 1% of borrowers are delinquent with payments. It shows how nervous markets are. And now Alt-A mortgages comprise about $500 billon to $1 trillion of the mortgage market so a lot can happen now in this region.

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S&P Dow Jones Indices which runs the Dow Jones Industrial Averages Index says it will drop Alcoa, Bank of America and HP from the index and replace these companies with Goldman Sachs, Visa and Nike. HP was the second computer company after IBM that was added in 1997. Alcoa was made part of the index in 1959.