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French president Macron speaking on the Dixmude helicopter carrier on the French port base of Toulon- "Our nuclear forces contribute through their own existence to the security of France and Europe," says French president Macron. He said France will assess "all the consequence" and develop "a new security architecture" on the continent after peace returns to Ukraine. France is the only nuclear deterrent power in Europe and nuclear deterrence will continue to be kept "credible and modern." Macron pointed out that "Europe is not sheltered anymore from missile and drone strikes and we must integrate this reality." Macron was unveiling a national strategic review that will show how its defense will look in 2030. France will also budget for "influence" to fight the kind of war used by Russia and Mr. Putin to undermine the thinking and to "manipulate civilian populations." ...

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The great persistence shown by president Biden in negotiating with Hamas through Qatar's emir and with Israel's Netanyahu to get both to come to an agreement for release of hostages. This was delayed twice, once with Israel's takeover of the Al Shifa hospital complex in Gaza and then with recalcitrance shown by both sides to agree over which hostages would be released. Each time Biden persisted till he got the deal for both hostage release and a temporary ceasefire that could be the basis for future settlement of decades of conflict. Biden has expresssed his determination to end this conflict. In this he has the support of the world community of nations.

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Fisher and Taub in NYT give a brief history of Venezuelan politics and government since the 1950's to help readers understand today's economic and political crisis under president Maduro. How did a country with huge oil resources end up with depleted cash reserves to the point of creating shortages of basic goods on supermarket shelves, how did inflation reach over 700%, and how did the economy contract by over 10%, by some estimates close to 20%, in 2016? Venezuela's story is a reminder that populist movements do not hold the answer to political or economic problems, as they create corruption of their own as new groups of people try to perpetuate themselves in power, and new economic problems as they try to win favor with their own support base. Also through economic mismanagement worsened by economic changes such as oil prices or some other adverse development in the global economy. Internal divisions means the capacity of the country to respond is weakened. Brazil has shown the problems of corruption with new political groups and the weakening of government finances. Venezuela is the extreme example of how a lot can go wrong over time after the initial response to a new populist group is positive as it was in Venezuela in 1998, even with advantage of rich natural resources. Change that fragments a country and polarizes a country instead of pulling together the country's human talent around a program that all groups agree to support, is a signal of future problems. The rule of law is an essential component not just of democracy, but of economic development and progress of any country. These are the lessons of Venezuela for today. Economic crises in the eighties led to loss of public confidence in the two main political parties which alternated in power since the founding of democracy in 1958. In 1998 a military officer named Chavez won the election on the platform of returning power to the people and reducing corruption. Chavez reforms initially were popular. Popular protests in 2002 led to the military briefly taking power before returning power back to Chavez. This led to Chavez moving further towards consolidating power leading to a polarization of society. The oil company workers who went on strike were fired replaced by Chavez supporters and oil funds were diverted to popular programs. In the process Chavez isolated Venezuela from the world economy, leading to lack of foreign investment, and Venezuela falling behind other countries in Latin America, even though it had large oil resources. To retain control of the streets this report shows Chavez helped organize the colectivos or local supporters organized as vigilante groups, which has led to further polarization. Corruption in the military and with the colectivos has led to power being fragmented between different groups. The oil companies fund reserves were depleted by corruption depriving Venezuela of an essential cushion as oil prices dropped. Chavez died of health problems with Maduro winning the election in April 2013 by 50.6% of the vote. The parliamentary elections led to the opposition parties winning by a landslide in December 2015. The current problems with daily street protests stems from the economic crisis, with inflation as high as 700% and shortages of basic goods, the economy declining by over 10% in 2016. The uncontrolled printing of money has fueled rampant inflation.The efforts by president Maduro to nullify the powers of Congress in an effort to control the country and override Congress, has worsened the discontent with the government.   ...

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India is seen as critical for the US to develop alternatives to the existing supply chain where manufacturing is concentrated in only one country. US is positioning itself as a key supplier of defense needs of India through joint development and manufacturing in India. GE has a proposal to build jet engines in India, which Jake Sullivan, US National Security Advisor, calls just the kind of effort that will make it possible to rapidly build up the American relationship with India for advanced technologies and the supply chain in manufacturing. 

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New York Governor Cuomo proposes to merge the state's Insurance and Banking Departments, and the Consumer Protection Board, into a new Department of Financial Regulation. Cuomo says this is necessary to give New York a more efficient and modern regulatory framework. Governor Cuomo's aides say a single regulator is needed for effective regulation compared to the patchwork of agencies that has existed for so long. The new agency would also be empowered to oversee hedge funds.

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Short time work programs, paid leave, aid to small business for employee retention with the government paying a big percentage of wages, and unemployment benefits till companies rehire employees with government paying for this, are all different ways in which the U.S. and Europe are coping with the coronavirus crisis.  In the U.S. 22 million have applied for unemployment benefits with the U.S. government picking up a substantial part of the wages till companies rehire these employees. In the UK the government has launched a program that gives 2500 pounds or $3100 to each worker each month upto 80% of the worker's pay. The money is sent to businesses for retaining employees. This could cover estimated 8.3 million workers in the UK at a cost of $52 billion. The U.S. has a similar program with the first phase $377 billion already distributed to small businesses which requires retention of employees for government forgiveness of these loans. The basic idea is retain employees who could stay at home or be in short work programs or work from home. The French government is paying the wages of 9.6 million workers, almost half of workers in the private sector by sending the money to 785,000 small businesses. In Germany the Kurzarbeit program covers 725,000 companies which supports the wages of employees in a downturn and is financed from a special fund. The cost for Germany, France and Spain is about $147 billion or 135 billion euros for such programs. The European Union will step in with a 100 billion euros loan package. ...

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Labour Party MP's are pushing for a confirmatory second referendum on Brexit. 203 Labour Party MP's including 110 MP's from constituencies that voted Leave in the referendum are supporting the call for second referendum. They are asking the Labour Party executive committee to use the European elections to present Labour's view that a second referendum was the way out of the crisis.

The letter from Labour MP's in this move says- "The public wants Brexit to be over, They are looking to the Labour Party to resolve this Brexit crisis.  The way to resolve this crisis is in a confirmatory ballot with the facts of the deal before the British people."

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Bernie Sanders points out in this NYT op-ed the idea that Donald Trump could benefit from the same discontent among working class voters that helped the Leave campaign is a wake up call for the Democratic Party. He calls for global trade and a global economy that works for working class, middle class Americans.  Sanders is pushing for a Democratic Party that embraces the concerns of working class Americans, that understands the impact of factory closings and loss of jobs, of economic uncertainty, of declining incomes and shrinking opportunities.

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With the aggressive actions taken along the 1600 kilometre border in eastern Ladakh by China's People's Liberation Army, India needs a younger soldier to protect the border at high altitudes in below freezing temperatures. The entire 3500 kilometre border in the high Himalayan regions from east to west need technology driven surveillance with soldiers fit and ready for such duty. Agnipath's goal is to bring down the average age in the army from 32 years to 26 years to better reflect the youthful population in India. A tighter better disciplined force with high tech is needed. Bringing in more and new recruits is intended. Both the 25% of recruits retained after 4 years benefit and the 75% benefit. The 25% will have opportunities to move up the ranks. The 75% who come back out of the military will have the advanced technical training and courses, certification, that would make them attractive to the public and private sector companies in 2026 and beyond when India's economy will be 50% larger than today at growth rates of 10-12%. This is already seen in the way technologically trained military recruits from World War II in the US Army, Navy and Air Force were quickly absorbed at high salaries in the high growth period of America 1950-1970, with incentives like the GI Bill. Modifications that could be discussed- The 25% retained after 4 years. There is no magic number it could be raised to 30 or 40% during these post pandemic years and then lowered to 25% as the economy grows rapidly by 2025, or kept at 30% without changes, a number of options could be open.The financial aspect of the training can be modified where the 25% retained could have these 4 years added to their years for calculating pensions. The 75% are given 1.2 million rupees and even this can be adjusted upwards so that they could start businesses as entrepreneurs or have the time to pursue higher education before taking up for example with free education to enhance their education in areas of interest as was given by the GI bill to Americans in the armed services after World War II in 1946. Ideas from the GI Bill signed by president Franklin Roosvelt in 1944- Adding one year of unemployment payments, low interest loans to start a farm or business, full tution and living expenses for college. In 2008 the Veterans Act in the US continued support for education of servicement by making eduction free at a public college or university.  The Roosevelt GI bill benefited about 7.8 million servicemen in the US armed services. 2.2 million went to college, 7.6 million took training programs. It was an impressive achievement. No scheme is perfect there are budgetary constraints such as how to manage pensions to give the armed services the best possible funding including the training and course capabilities that also need good financing and the higher pensions for armed services. Every political party  government around the world without exception will have to face these budgetary constraints and the goal is to do right by the armed services providing the income and opportunities they deserve. Was a decent effort made with the right goals set? This is how these matters of national interest for India and the Free World that includes South East Asia, Africa and Latin America, should be discussed.    ...

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If only there was a way to keep the streets in big cities such as Paris, New York, and Mumbai quieter after the coronavirus. This report looks at ways in which cities changed during the coronavirus with less noise pollution. Bicycle lanes are becoming popular and some cities have converted car lanes into bicycle lanes. In many cities on a walk through parks one could hear bird songs. The audio clips in this NYT report and with SONYC's project provide a glimpse of how life changed on streets during the coronavirus.

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With stricter border control asylum seekers have dropped to 3500 a day at the US border with Mexico and the new government of Mexico under Caludia Sheinbaum is likely to cooperate with Biden to take back people of other nationalities. President Biden is about to pass an executive order that effectively closes the border with Mexico. Once daily crossings reach 2500 the border will be closed. The legal basis of the action is Immigration and Nationality Act clause 212F which says the president can take this action when he sees that "the entry of aliens or any class of aliens to the United States would be detrimental." This lowers the threshold from 4000 in the Senate bill negotiated by the president with Republican Senator Lankford to 2500 daily crossings. Mr. Trump had the Republican Speaker of the House not bring the Senate bill to a vote in the House. At the time Republicans in Congress said Biden should use his executive authority to do this and lower the threshold. The former president Trump also issued this kind of executive order in 2018 which was blocked in a federal court on grounds of humanitarian protection no matter how immigrants entered the country. This time there is a sense that the Congress, the president and public opinion supports this action and the president's authority. Mexican president Sheinbaum's support will also ease its implementation in 2024 and cut down border crossings from asylum seekers to lows below 2500 till a new Senate bill is taken up and passed with bipartisan support that exists in US Congress. ...

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New offices, making them less awful, (NO-LA) this is the trend says this report in WSJ. Reopened offices are opening on a voluntary basis. How will they attract employees back?  Try sweeping views, new yoga and wellness areas, "tech-free reflection zones,"  more conference rooms. This report looks at spaces by Accenture and other companies. Accenture adds sweeping views of the Hudson river, access to an outdoor terrace. The idea is to act as a pull, rather than a push. Unilever is changing offices into destination spaces where employees will come and work in 40% of the time. Salesforce is moving out desks to add more couches, TV's and whiteboards for teams. More offices are building spaces for 60% collaboration, up from 40% previously. Sanofi in Paris is adding options for breakfast, early dinner.  Other ideas are engagement days if workers are coming in only a few days a month. At Hightower this means one set day in the office a week, two engagement days a month for collaborative work. And workers are allowed to not coming one month a year and work from anywhere they choose.  ...

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This podcast in WSJ tells the amazing story of the development of a vaccine for malaria by a British scientist that took forty years. In a world of short run startups this tells the story of medical and indirectly other research include research on renewable energy to tackle climate change that takes years to develop and makes a lasting change in our lives. This is also true of the mRNA vaccine developed by two German scientists of Turkish descent who developed the Pfizer vaccine. The Novavax vaccine in the US also has a story of resilience in the face of many challenges. Mr Scholz of the SDP, currently vice chancellor of Germany and winner of the German election said recently he wanted to expose the myth that was created of the self-made man that has penetrated our culture over the last 2 decades. One cannot even conceive of self made people at a time when the whole world depends on vaccines developed such as mRNA vaccine by these 2 German scientists at university labs that are the first line of defense against the coronavirus. Both scientists took only half a day off when they got married. Both are children of immigrants to Germany from Turkey. They both cycle to work. Mr. Shin says "I don't have a car. I am not going to get a plane. What's life changing is to be able to impact something in the medical field." The electric batteries used in today's electric cars use technology developed by a Japanese scientist and professor who also worked at Toshiba in the face of many challenges. ...

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Leslie Gelb says US should focus on its strengths, on the areas that it can build on to come up with something of enduring value and not focus all one's energies on situations and troublespots that siphon off a lot of American energies. This is a good idea and should be something that policymakers at State and the National Security Council and advisers to the President could keep in mind. There is alot to be said about the Truman example of the Marshall Plan in building western Europe after the war. At the same time its not as clear cutthat troublespots and the difficult work can be avoided. Was the Berlin airlift a troublespot? And Truman had little time to respond to the invasion of South Korea from the north, acrisis he would have chosen to avoid, if he had the choice. Instead he was drawn into along drawn out war on the Korean peninsula. Still the idea that you want to save your energies and not dissipate them in conflicts which can't clearly be won is a useful one. The Korean war was fought on conventional terms so the US could point to success years later in South Korea. But for conflicts fought in the jungles of Vietnam or in the remote mountainous terrain of Afghanistan, limited objectives and willingness to consider history, customs, and local tribal cultures is very constructive. ...

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It is no longer true that India cannot take care of it better. Advances in technology accessible to India and work with other countries including the French who have advanced restoration technologies, give India an even better ability to take care of important monuments that form part of its cultural heritage. This is particularly true of the Buddhist heritage and the Buddha shrine from the Amravati monument in southeastern India. People in Andhra Pradesh who have seen this Buddhist heritage displayed in the British Museum of ancient Buddhist sites near the Krishna and Godavari rivers are struck by how much India needs these architectural and historical pieces that form part of the Buddhist period in India. Buddhism started in the Indian north, spread to southern India before it spread to China, then Japan, South Korea and Vietnam. To understand India for 1.2 billion people it is essential to understand Buddhism and its development, the Sankracharya effort to revive the Advaita Vedanta during a mature period in Buddhism in India and the development of culture, institutions and society. The collapse of the original ideas of Buddhism and the original ideas of Advaita Vedanta with the many creeds and sects of India, laid the ground for foreign powers in India. Much of the nineteenth century and the twentieth in India sees the effort to revive these original ideas in their pure spirit. ...

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In a two and half hour news conference prime minister Li Keqiang of China gives some insights into the new thinking of China's leadership on issues of trade with the U.S.,charges made against Huawei, and handling China's slowing economy. On Huawei or Chinese tech companies conducting spying for the Chinese government Li Keqiang stated: This is not consistent with Chinese law. This is not how China behaves, We do not do that and will not do that in the future." To tackle the slowing economy Li said the government is reducing taxes and cutting interest rates and the money banks are required to hold as reserves. By reducing expenditures the government will save 1 trillion yuan ($148 billion, collecting higher dividends from state firms, and retrieving unspent state funds allocated earlier. The purpose Li repeatedly emphasized is to free up credit to help private companies and prevent "layoff waves." On the trade issues with the U.S. Li believes it is not possible to uncouple the two countries economies, and said he expected the trade talks to lead to a positive outcome. China's national legislature he said passed a new foreign investment law as proof of its commitment to creating a fair environment for foreign companies, including complaint responding mechanisms, transparency in information disclosure and fast followup in issuing regulations that put the law in effect. ...

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To understand the upside down nature of and distortions in capital markets by 2024 look at this set of valuations. Can you tell which market capitalization or valuation is out of step in this list? Boeing $100 billion GM       $67 billion TikTok    $300 billion Intel        $105 billion Apple      $3400 billion Nvidia       $3650 billion   Answer:  TikTok, Nvidia Another way to look at it the combined valuation of Intel, GM and Boeing is $272 billion, less tha Tiktok at $300 billion.  What if these companies disappeared tomorrow- would everything come to a standstill? Almost standstill as there would be no more laptops, cars and planes, much of our modern life would come to a standstill. Remove TikTok would life come to a standstill? Better still the capital allocated to TikTok is put into education, and financial literacy, cultural literacy, would life come to a standstill or are we better off with a more educated citizenry? ...

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Talk of Starmer as "tough as old boots" as he recharts Labour's response to Reform UK. Labour releases videos of people being deported - 16400 deportees in 2025. The Times says half of them left voluntarily and the media telling a different story of small boats and smuggling networks continuing to bring migrants.  Will it work asks The Times of London. Reform UK passes Labour in public support in polls in February 2025. Already it has taken a large part of Conservatives public support with Conservatives split further under Kemi Badenoch whose future is uncertain following repeated changes in Conservative leaders. Here is what Starmer is telling Labour ministers and he is listening to 67 MP's facing Reform UK as the top challenger-that if Labour was not going to be “disrupted”, it had to become the "disruptor." To Reform UK's “politics of grievance”, Labour needed to provide serious “politics of answers”. Instead of “defenders of the status quo”  seek out the spirit of “insurgency of opposition into government”. ...

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China's 15th Five Year Plan with shift to robotics, semiconductors, EV's, renewable energy, and lower investment in education, healthcare- the shift to a slowing economy, job losses. GDP per capita one third of the US much lower than most of southern Europe or Eastern Europe. China is still a middle income country. Unlike Japan which surpassed most of EU countries  GDP per capita, China with 1.4 billion people is a vast country. The shift in the emphasis in the 5 year Plan means economic growth  of 10-12% is now only 5%. With the collapse in housing construction and slowing manufacturing facing tariffs in the US means job losses.

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Two out of three people across France oppose the pension reforms as formulated by president Macron. The reform increases the number of years workers have to make contributions for the pension and increases the age to 64. It comes at a time of social change in France with workers and families under stress from a cost of living crisis, and loss of manufacturing in communities across France, a widening economic gap between cities and rural areas.  About 1.2 to 1.4 million people are expected to come out in the protests across France.

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The US will sell 5 Virginia class nuclear submarines to Australia. Manufacturing will start in the US and be shifted to Australia with nuclear submarine visits to Perth in western Australia by 2027. The US will at some point augment its own nuclear submarine fleet where about 1.5 submarines are added each year. The new US fiscal 2024 defense budget will be $835 billion, higher than in 2023. Australia and Britain will acquire new technologies and the knowledge to maintain these submarines. This will help the US maintain its lead in undersea technologies over China. 

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The 30 by 30 target agreed to by countries at COP15 in Montreal, the Montreal Kunming conference, commits to protecting and restoring 30% of the Earth's surface by 2030. China was an active participant and made the decision to put this target into the final document. Biodiversity is an essential and important part of the plan for climate change action. COP15 Montreal complements the work done at COP26 in Egypt. Countries will report on their progress to 30 by 30 targets every year. Also part of biodiversity targets is the reform of $500 billion in environmentally damaging subsidies.

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 Members of Congress in the US are worried about skewed priorities. They prefer not to fund Amazon's space exploration projects and prefer to fund projects essential for national security and technological progress such as semiconductor production. Amazon and its head, Mr. Bezos, are facing antitrust legislation in the American Congress. Even a Representative in Congress from Seattle district, home to Amazon, says Jeff Bezos doe not need a "handout," if he wants to explore space fine he can do it one his own money not federal dollars needed for America's priorities. 

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A look at how Kamala Harris plans to focus on specific aspects of the Biden Economic Policy Agenda that are of the greatest concern for the American public. Cost of living action is the highest priority. Harris has ideas on this issue to cut housing costs and has specific proposals from 2023 with rising housing costs to tackle this by limiting rent increases to 5%. She will also come up with specific actions to sharpen her focus on cost of living issues to help ordinary Americans cope with rising cost of living for groceries, autos, auto repair bills, insurance costs, and energy costs. Economic advisors include the following from the years since 2020 with Biden as his VP- Brian Nelson,Treasury Department, Mike Pyle   Deputy National Economic Advisor for International Economics, Brian Deese     former National Economic Council Director  Gene Sperling, former Biden Economic Adviser, Deane Millison former Harris Economic Adviser, Rohini Kosoglu, Grace Landrieu, Bharat Ramamurti.      ...

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Homeland Security and ICE needs new resources- $175 billion from Congress is part of the plan from Republican Senators to boost support for action in immigration. To deliver on plans to control illegal migration there is a need for funding the agencies involved. Senate Budget Committee Chair Lindsey Graham (R-South Carolina) says in this report that Homan was “begging” for funding from Congress. Much of the migrant action is hard to undertake with current resource levels. Graham’s committee adopted a budget blueprint for legislation to boost border security and immigration enforcement by $175 billion. Republicans say it is intended for three parts in funding: personnel, facilities and infrastructure, support for state and local officials. It includes pay raises, hiring and retention bonuses for ICE agents; immigration judges and support staff; assistant U.S. attorneys; the border wall; additional detention space and local and state law enforcement agencies to aid ICE, US Immigration and Customs Enforcement Agency. ...