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Strange as it may sound the retired coal power stations in Europe were back in operation and highly profitable during the COP26 Glasgow conference. Unknown to speakers at the conference calling stridently for complete coal phaseout instead of rapid phasedown including speakers from the European Union and from Tuvalu (population about 1500) this was happening not just in China but also in Europe. This was dictated by energy economics as coal prices have come down by half and natural gas prices have risen ten fold, and natural gas shortfall in Europe.  This report in the WSJ shows coal and lignite plants making huge profits for electricity companies in Europe. As a result the calls for phaseout were seen as hollow by China and India in the last days of the conference leading to the language change in the final agreement to "phasedown of fossil fuels." Natural gas producing power stations are losing 2.26 euros for every megawatt hour, compared to 57 euros per magawatt hour for coal powered power plants, 4 times as high as the previous highest levels in 2017, as reported in the WSJ. Estimates are for coal power stations to be more than gas rivals till 2023. Germany says WSJ still has highest level of addiction to coal and lignite. It generated 40 gigawatts of electricity from coal and lignite in September and October, the highest for these 2 months since 2018, Poland is doing the same exporting its coal based power to the rest of Europe. In the same way coal power plants that were idled are back producing electricity in Spain, Portugal and in UK home of the COP26 Glasgow conference.   ...

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Mike Clancy of The Prospect writes in The Times of London that he has found that two thirds of remote workers working from home would like to have the right to unplug from work and not be expected to connect with the office at some point in the day, and that this would have a hugely beneficial impact on mental health.   The biggest problem that workers working from home have found during this pandemic for one year now is that it blurs the line between work and life outside of work having a negative impact on one's mental health. Surveys have found that about half of remote workers like the idea of working from home, having time from commute and being able to be have more freedom from being tied down to the office space. Companies are looking at cutting about 25 to 50% of office space but have not looked at the problems workers have and not set new rules about when the line for work is set and workers can cut off from work and not be expected to be reachable by the office. Clancy even goes on to say that companies have looked at the problems of the last century not this one and largely stayed away from tackling the real problems of workplace- stress, burnout and surveillance. Lyrarc recommends readers look at the way Germans approach this idea of blurred distinctions between work and life outside of work in the idea of "Feierabend" that literally means breaking away from work at some point say 4.00 pm or 5.00 pm to take a bike ride or walk or do something else. ...

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U.S. states face their biggest cash crisis since the Great Depression as a result of rapidly declining tax revenues with a state budget shortfall of $434 billion, says this report in the WSJ. This is larger than the 2019 K-12 education budget for every state combined, or more than twice the amount spent that year on state roads and transportation infrastructure. Rainy day funds will be exhausted by the loss in tax revenues after the pandemic closures of business. Nevada, Louisiana, New Jersey and Florida are the worst hit states. The result will be cutbacks in the future and more pressure on the retirement benefits for police, firefighters, teachers, government workers. Over 60% of the revenues of states come from sales and income taxes to meet the general operating funds. Drops in consumer spending and large job losses from the pandemic affect these revenues. Local government workforces were cut by 1 million people. In Michigan 31,000 state workers were furloughed 2 days per pay period for 10 weeks, and others were laid off. Rainy day funds set up after the 2008 crisis are exhausted. Only federal funds are keeping states afloat with a lot of uncertainty about 2021. The state budget director in Michigan calculated that even if the state got rid of 12 state departments including education environment and treasury, all reserves would be gone, and there would still be $1 billion budget shortfall. The rainy day funds set up after 2008 crisis accumulated $50 billion in U.S. states which have helped somewhat, with federal funds helping tackle shortfalls. Yet 2021 looms with huge shortfalls and expected cutbacks across the U.S. ...

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Cygnus is the rehearsal for a full blown pandemic that the British government conducted in 2016. After preparations accelerated following the SARS crisis in 2009 and the H1N1 pandemic in 2015, the British government accelerated its preparations for H2N2 the next pandemic. The exercize took place in October 2016 for 3 days, for a worst case scenario flu pandemic affecting 50% of the population and causing 400,000 extra deaths. For 3 days people were told to imagine being in the 7th week of the pandemic, facing peaks in demand for health and hospital care. Cobra meetings were to be held. This report in the Guardian gives details on the Cygnus exercize. It showed a lack of UK readiness.  By July 2016 prime minister Cameron was replaced by Theresa May in the Conservative Party and a full blown crisis emerged for Brexit. Britain lost interest in Cygnus or the pandemic prevention effort as Brexit consumed Britain's energies. Soon it was forgotten by the time Boris Johnson became prime minister and won the Brexit election. This shows how even a sincere effort and preparation over years of planning can result in nothing. This also happened in France. See France 24's coverage of this and our groups and links on this. One insight was that while every agency acted there was no coordinated response with someone in the central authority guiding the entire effort step by step. Care homes entirely privately run were also identified as a concern and anticipated significant pressures because of staff absenteeism at these social care centres in a pandemic, as reported in the Guardian ...

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The Indian prime minister's choice for heading Indian Railways and the IT Ministry is similar to his choice of Mr. Jaishankar for the Ministry of External Affairs. He selected a person with the drive and conviction as well as the experience to tackle the important job of modernizing Indian Railways so that it provides the convenience and access that is seen in Europe with new investment and advances in technology. The 50 year old Vaishnaw is from Orissa, yet grew up in Jodhpur where he attended engineering school, before doing M Tech from IIT Kanpur. He had an all India rank of 27 in the Indian Civil Services exam. In 2003 he worked as Deputy Secretary in the prime minister's office when Atal Bihari Vajpayee was prime minister. He was private secretary to Mr. Vajpayee in 2004. He then studied for a Masters degree at the Wharton School of Business, University of Pennsylvania, and worked for General Electric and Siemens in India in transportation related projects. By 2019 Ashwini Vaishnaw had caught the attention of the Indian prime minister as a capable administrator with a can do attitude in India's modernization efforts. He was nominated for the upper house of parliament. In 2021 July he was appointed to lead 2 important ministries - railways and IT. His first action in the first 48 hours was to ask senior officers in the rail ministry and IT ministry to work two shifts alternately from 7am to 3pm, and 3 pm to 12 midnight so that work can be pushed forward that needed to be done in great speed for modernization. Delivering on the vision of the prime minister for modernizing the country is now the task of this ministry and Mr. Vaishnaw. ...

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The 47 seconds of a UC Davis Law School debate for the election of Attorney General California. The year 2010, Kamala Harris 45 years old had endorsed Obama early in 2008, was becoming well known in the California Democratic party. The debate was with Steve Cooley, a popular Republican District Attorney elected in 2000. Cooley was looking into outlandish salaries for public officials in the City of Bell. The issue of double dipping had been raised in the primary by Cooley's opponent Eastman. Jack Leonard on of three panelists said he would ask the question about double dipping to Cooley, about Cooley taking his taxpayer paid pension to add to his salary as AG of $150,000, that would get him to make $400,000. "Do you plan to double-dip by taking both a pension and your salary as attorney general?” Mr. Leonard asked. “Yes, I do,” Mr. Cooley said outright Leonard glanced at Ms. Harris. She said nothing.    “I earned it.” But Mr. Cooley was not yet done. “I definitely earned whatever pension rights I have, and I will certainly rely upon that to supplement the very low, incredibly low salary that’s paid to the attorney general,” said Cooley. Everyone felt a moment of silence and amazement. And then Harris said "Go for it Steve. You earned it." Harris campaign was about broke with only $750,000 left, just enough to run one ad spot for only 1  week. And Kamala Harris had the courage to do just that. At that moment the campaign was won, a last minute counter ad did not register as Meg Whitman the governor candidate for Republicans  was seeing her campaign go off the rails. ...

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Biden gave a passionate and vigorous speech at the Democratic Convention in Chicago, Aug 19, 2024 comparable to what he did in the State of the Union message to the US Congress and people in January 2023 and January 2024. Gone was any semblance of the bad day at the debate that came after covid symptoms. The first night at the Democrat Convention brought before Biden's speech speakers Hillary Clinton, Governor Beshear of Kentucky, touching personal accounts of trauma of women who were denied abortion in rape and incest and mother's health conditions, Steve Kerr, US Coach men's basketball team at the US Olympics, and three members of Congress. Steve Kerr said it was the duty of Americans to protect American democracy and the respect for the dignity of people, workers and families, that is part of the values of the American people for two hundred years, values Biden exemplified and Kamala is shaped by. Ashley Clinton reminded people of her father's love for the country and family- telling the country how her father took the train from Washington D.C. to Wilmington Delaware just to see Ashley, Jill and the family for her birthday when she was just seven years, stayed for a few minutes at the station and after blowing the candles headed right back to D.C. Dignity, decency, values, personal sacrifice, courage, these are the values that Coach Steve Kerr said America expected from its leaders. Thes are the values of Joe Biden of Delaware as he went through 50 years int he US Senate, 8 years as Vice President and his term as president. And above all Biden used this experience to pass legislation  for the Renewal of America that makes him many speakers say the most consequential president since FDR. ...

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Tim Walz uses a sports metaphor about being one behind, fighting for every inch in this football game to score, as he brings to life this final effort of 75 days to win the election for president Kamala Harris, for president Biden, and for workers and families across the 51 States. Read the full speech at the Convention as Tim Walz accepts the Democratic nomination for Vice President. "Their Project 2025 will make things much, much harder for people who are just trying to live their lives. They spend a lot of time pretending they know nothing about this. But look, I coached high school football long enough to know, and trust me on this: When somebody takes the time to draw up a playbook, they’re going to use it. And we know, if these guys get back in the White House, they’ll start jacking up the costs on the middle class. They’ll repeal the Affordable Care Act. They’ll gut Social Security and Medicare. And they will ban abortion across this country, with or without Congress. Here’s the thing. It’s an agenda nobody asked for. It’s an agenda that serves nobody, except the richest and the most extreme amongst us. And it’s an agenda that does nothing for our neighbors in need. Is it weird? Absolutely. Absolutely. But it’s also wrong, and it’s dangerous. It’s not just me saying so, it’s Trump’s own people. They were with him for four years. They’re warning us that the next four years will be much, much worse." ...

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What happened on September 10, 2024 in the Harris Trump ABC television debate moderators David Muir and Linsey Davis? It is hard to prepare for a debate, things can go wrong, unanticipated situations may arise. 67 million audience, 51 million for Biden Trump last debate, it can stress you out- UNLESS you Trust your authentic self knowing people can see through you if you are not honest forthright and stating it clearly. Harris could say she did approve fracking now as policy action she cast decisive vote for new oil leases. I am from a family like yours struggled with a single parent mother, ("not $400 million platter")I also support small businesses. If the other side is telling lies prolifically, make it clear vigorously yet with it not changing your demeanor and your focus on housing, cost of living, experience for NATO "from the same old playbook" and a warning about the lies to come to prepare the audience very early. Save the time responding to insult to use every moment constructively to define your message for the question at hand which is in addition to the questions put to you which are merely for organization immigration, crime, economy, cost of living, chips and science competition, Ukraine, Afghanistan. Harris said nothing about "Marxist economic professor father, other personal insults just acknowledged "It is a tragedy," don't you think fellow citizens? What would 4 years be like under Harris? (and 4 years under Trump?) Here's my plan for housing, for not starting trade wars while letting chips and science help competitors as Trump.   ...

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Modi and Delhi election- Modi's party the BJP wins 50 of 70 seats Feb 2025. Of the hundreds of lines of text in this takeaway on local politics in the Times of India not one line can be found on how it relates to Vikshit Bharat 2047, the goal of a developed economy and modernization of Bharat. Being so close the TOI cannot see the forest, just the trees. Surely Delhiites will not have not noticed the idea of Vikshit Bharat 2047? The 10-15-20 year target of modernization of the Indian economy in the nation's capital. The question in the Lok Sabha elections of 2024 was whether after struggling to keep up with Europe's changes in the modern scientific observation mind during the Renaissance period in the 15th century amid invasions from western Asia, and losing its independence by the 17th and 18th centuries, India would see its modernization blocked by a lack of clear focused development without a majority party in charge. The setbacks in Maharashtra and in Uttar Pradesh for Modi and the BJP in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections were reversed in Maharashtra within 1 year in the Maharashtra Assembly elections in 2024 with a BJP landslide. This win in the nations federal capital Delhi now added to the win in Mumbai the commercial capital (Maharashtra) brings together the entire regional capitals Mumbai- Ahmedabad-Jaipur-Delhi-Indore-Lucknow together as one region for modernization and investment for the first time in 75 years. Large investment in Bihar and Orissa, Andhra Pradesh in the Eastern states in 2024 and 2025 Indian Budgets create a new Way Forward for India to Vikshit Bharat 2035, and onto Vikshit Bharat 2047. ...

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The politics of BP's Russian venture TNK-BP Ltd. Are the 3 Russian partners , some remaining Russian oligarchs you could call them, trying to find a way to get the maximum for a future sale either to Gazprom or BP, as BP is separately working on a broad partnership with Gazprom.

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This editorial deserves an award for best editorial on international economic matters in 2011. The editorial, goes right to the point, when it says the French, the Germans, and the European Central Bank are deluding themselves if they call this weeks resolution of the Greece debt crisis a realistic solution. It is anything but a solution. The Journal calls it a French deception. It is unworkable because the main problem, the high ratio of Greek debt to GDP -which is now 155% and is expected to reach 170% by the end of 2011- is sure to get worse under the arrrangement designed in the interest of French and German banks. Under the arrangement French and German banks and other creditors will get to double their return from 4-5% today to an effective interest rate of 10% if Greece grows by 2% a year, on 49% of the bonds they hold. These bonds will be converted into 30 year bonds. This effectively doubles the interest cost for Greece in servicing this debt. On the other approximately 51% of the bonds the French and German banks would redeem the bonds for cash and a triple A, sovereign zero coupon bond. The Journal asks what is the point of making Greece's debt problem worse than it is now and calling it a solution. The austerity cuts are already expected to lead to a deep recession, something that is also happening in Portugal, leading to a worsening of the debt situation. Creditors are not sharing in the losses under this arrangement, as Germany and the Netherlands have insisted. As the Journal points out they are instead taking out half of their investment and doubling their return on the remainder. And the fears of contagion for Spain are not lessened, as financial markets can clearly see through this for what it is- unworkable and unrealistic. ...

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Koichi Hamada, a former professor of economcs at Yale University, is one of prime minister Abe's advisors for the policy called Abenomics. He says the increase in the consumption tax was never part of Abenomics. It was the legacy of the previous Democratic Party of Japan's policies and of prime minister Noda, who pushed for it in the last 2 years of his administration. Nikkei polls in 2011 showed 53% of the public opposed to the doubling of the consumption tax to 10% by 2015 proposed by Noda and passed in 2012. Ichiro Ozawa's group of legislators left the DPJ over this issue. The real force behind the push to double the tax was the Finance Ministry, which warned the Abe government that not increasing the tax would make Japan look fiscally irresponsible. The Finance Ministry appears to have lost sense of the timing and fiscal hawks in the LDP party had gone along with it. The deteriorating global economy in the third quarter has hurt Japanese exports, and the lack of wage increases coupled with the increase in the consumption tax to 8% from 5% made Japanese feel poorer, leading to conditions that exacerbated the situation. Recognizing this Yamamoto says Abe has called the snap election in Dec. 2014, after postponing the second increase in the consumption tax to 10% in 2015 which the Noda legislation set to the future date of 2017. He says Abe had to have the guts to take on the Finance Ministry for Abenomics to work....

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Robert Reich, a former Labor Secretary, says that instead of "rebalancing" with Chinese consumers buying more American goods and China exporting less to the USA, things are headed in the opposite direction. Why? Because at the macroeconomic level China is devoting more of its country's resources to production capacity. Chinese consumers are taking home a smaller proportion of the total economy. In 2008 personal consumption amounted to 35% of the total economy, whereas in 1998 it was 50%. Capital investment in the same 10 years went up 35% to 44%. Chinese continue to save and these savings are going into infrastructure and manufacturing capacity. There is even a social twist to the savings, with fewer young Chinese women than men parents with boys have to compete in the marraige market and save assets for this. Households are also saving to support more elderly people as population is aging quickly with population policies. All this means that with all the talk (see links to Niall Ferguson and Krugman), the situation will likely roll on in this manner till things reach an impasse, or there is a strong political backlash in the USA which leads to stronger trade actions by the government, or there is a crisis. Meanwhile the trade deficit is headed higher and Chinese foreign reserves will go far above the current $2.3 trillion. And the Europeans will also be getting restless with their trade imbalance, as the euro edges higher and the yuan remians pegged to the dollar, leading to trade distortions. ...

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Oil exports 2.6 million barrels a day, oil and gas revenues generating about $60 billion for Iran. Content Links 1. Social goals: 6 % of GNP goes to subsidies on food , gasoline, other essentials. A near 50% boost in the minimum wage winter 2005. 2. A decree by Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamanei recently authorizing privatization of some 80% of the large state owned industrial sector.

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The 2015 budget for the European Union borders agency Frontex was increased by 17.5% from 97 million euros to 114 million euros, yet it remains underfunded with the huge influx of refugees through Greece and from Turkey. For 2016 the budget increases by 54% to 176 million euros. It is based in Warsaw, Poland. It does not have its own border guards, planes and ships, which are provided to it by the member states of the EU and paid for from its budget. It was not deisigned to address a problem of this magnitude at EU borders and some new form of the agency needs to be developed.

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In the second quarter 2011 Goldman's revenue from trading, bonds, commodities and currencies declined 53% to $1.6 billon from $3.37 billion in the prior year. Goldman's value-at-risk, or VaR, declined to $101 million from $136 million the prior year. This indicator measures the dollar amount Goldman has at risk on any day at its trading desks. Goldman plans 1000 job cuts. Goldman set aside $3.2 billion in the quarter for compensation and benefits, a decline from $3.8 billion the prior year. Goldman's CFO says it was harder to navigate the volatility in markets in 2011 because of the political issues that were very difficult to analyze or predict.

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The Washington Post-ABC News poll of August 29- Sept 1, shows 60% of respondents disapprove of the way the Obama administration has handled the U.S. economy. Of these 60%, half "strongly disapprove." Two to one the respondents say they are worse off today financially than at the beginning of Obama's term in 2008. This is the response to the famous Reagan question for Jimmy Carter- "are you better off today?" On the issue of the size of government and services, only 38% of respondents say they want to see a larger government with more services, and 56% say they want to see a smaller government with less services.

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Lego chief executive, Jorgen Vig Knudstrop, sees strong growth in Japan, S. Korea and China, and weak growth in India because of a lack of a developed retail distribution system. Sales increased by over 50% in Asia and 23% in the U.S. in the first half of 2012. Lego benefitted from a new product launch called Lego Friends, which is construction toys for girls. Product introductions based on movie themed sets also helped increase sales. Knudstrop says in an interview that he sees weaker U.S. sales in the next 2-3 years because of higher taxes to reduce the deficit and less consumer spending.

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To meet the budget deficit Russia plans to issue $50 billion worth of ruble denominated bonds and privatize $10 billion in state assets every year until 2014. Russia is also changing its policy to attract foreign investment. For the first time since the 1998 financial crisis Russia will turn to international banks and pension funds in the US and Europe to maintain financing for a whole range of activities- from modernizing the military to paying high public sector wages. Russia is planning the sale of a stake in state bank VTB. And shares in oil companies, hydroelectric dams and shipping lines are also expected to go on the market.

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The move by George Osborne, and the new British government, to eliminate a structural deficit by 2015- the difference between what the government takes in and its spending which is increasing- with large spending cuts and new taxes, was announced with the new budget. It will in total by 2015 amount to about 8% of GDP, and is the largest effort to reverse increases in public spending since the days of Margaret Thatcher. After a decade of Labor governments public spending now adds up to about 50% of the economy. About 77% of the effort to cut the deficit comes from spending cuts, the rest from taxes.

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Apple shares which made a steep rise of over 50% with the introduction of the iPad in 2011, reaching over $600 by March 2012, fell by about 9% between April 9 and April 16, 2012. Apple faces questions about the extent of new innovations it can bring compared to the pace of innovation under CEO Jobs. How long it can maintain the high profit margins on the iPad and the iPhone before they are gradually eroded. And whether a lot of the growth in future years has already been priced into the price of the stock already, with the steep ascent in price in 2011-2012.

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India's foreign exchange reserves of $295 billion cover about 7 months of imports. This is not enough in currency reserves for India's central bank to take actions to prevent a depreciation of the Indian currency, the rupee. The central bank, RBI, has taken other actions including giving local exporters 15 days to convert half their estimated $7 billion foreign exchange holdings into rupees. Analysts say the RBI is running out of policy options and is down to micromanaging the currency. India's trade deficit was at $13.4 billion in March 2012 with rising cost of importing oil and lower exports. The rupee is close to 54 rupees to the dollar.

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Zweig cautions against putting too much faith in experts, or quant models such as "value at risk" or VAR, used by JP Morgan to assess risk. He cites physicist Richard Feynmann: "You must not fool yourself- and you are the easiest person to fool." And the address Feynmann gave at the 1974 commencement of Caltech, in which he said avoid the "cargo cult" mentality of Pacific Islanders who believed that just by standing on runways they could make plane full of food and clothing land, similiar to the ways they did after World War II. Exaggerated returns of over 50% call for more vigilance to look at risks of failure.

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Brazil's debt at 57% of GDP which is not likely to decline in 2014, is a concern for analysts at Moody's. Heavy spending and lower tax revenues with high interest rates will increase the deficit to 3.7% in 2014 from 2.48% in 2012, according to central bank estimates. Inflation is about 5.98%. Trade surplus is lower at about $2.6 billion for 2013. Brazil's foreign reserves are much higher than Argentina at $359 billion, ten times short term debt, Argentina at 109% of short term debt and Turkey at 84% of short term debt- which protects Brazil compared to its reserves in the 1997 financial crisis.