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The 1985 hit "Small Town" by John Mellencamp is about Seymour, Indiana. Republican State Representative Jim Lucas says the city of Seymour welcomes immigrants legally here who are properly vetted. The concern is about migrants not vetted and not legally here. At a recent city council meeting Lucas attended it was decided not to go ahead with an economic development agenda. Says Lucas- “However, Seymour has changed drastically in just the past few years, and many of us are obviously concerned about the direction we are headed,” he added. New immigrant cases or migrant arrivals for Jackson county, Indiana, where Seymour is located went up to 435 in 2024 from 66 in 2021. It is at that point that the welcome center idea ran into opposition in this small town in Indiana, an hour from Indianapolis population 21,000 in Jackson County. As the town's population mix changes - it was 1% Hispanic in 1990, then 5% Hispanic in 2000- jumping in two decades of Bush-Obama-Trump-Biden to 25% Hispanic, questions besides economic about the sense of uneasiness of resident came up. Also of cultural literacy of the state of Indiana, and of the history of the state within the Union forged by Washington and Lincoln, FDR and Eisenhower, and of Wendell Wilkie of Elwood, Indiana. Unemployment rate for Jackson County is 3.3%, median income $63,000, home ownership 57%. Issues were not about the economy alone, and about how many immigrants could be absorbed and the cultural and language literacy of arriving migrants. There were issues about the perceived crime rate (metrics show traffic related offenses were up), and about drawing too much of the school's resources as English learning went up slowing learning in the schools. Republican State Representative Jim Lucas says it is crowding the health care clinic downtown with immigrants. ...

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Advice on walking away from a home loan when you are way under water, and it makes no sense to keep writing checks, and when government help is not there as you are way under water. Martin Feldstein had warned abut this as a major cause of rising foreclosures from early last year. Now without government help this looks like a rising tide for many homeowners under water. This financial planner says its feasible, and may make sense. He talks to the Mortgage Bankers Association, and a spokesman there tells him that its cost prohibitive for a bank to chase down a borrower in financial difficulty. And some states have laws that prohibit banks from going after borrowers for the remainder after foreclosure, including California and Arizona, two of the worst affected. And a lawyer arranging the foreclosure, can put in writing a waiver for this. For the tax impact, he says recent laws eliminate a federal tax through 2012 on most primary resident debt that a lender has reduced through loan restructuring, or forgiven through foreclosure. And states like California and Arizona have passed laws echoing these federal rules. Then there is the question of credit. Yes, its impaired for about 7 years. But with so many in foreclosure there may be an effort by credit unions and financial institutions to destigmatize borrowers who have foreclosed. A law Professor at George Mason University says credit scores will have to be adjusted to lessen the impact of a foreclosure, as this does not carry the information value in 2009 that it would say in 2005. And with so many people in foreclosure there is an emerging market here, according to credit union lender BECU in Washington state. If other than foreclosure you have good credit, its not going to be a big issue, says the director of the Rental Property Owners of Michigan, especially as good tenants are not that easy to find in this difficult economic environment anyway. What this suggests is that many will take this option and foreclosures will rise for the rest of 2009, especially if the job losses go on for longer in the range of 400,000 to 600,000 that we have seen for the last 4 months. Changes in the bankruptcy laws and restructuring the loans on that basis, or government help to those under water in some future plan that lowers payments to something in the range of 30-40%, are ways in which this can be averted. But with job losses of this magnitude a lot of people would end up in serious difficulty, and consider the foreclosure option....

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President Obama told a press conference after the Supreme Court hearings on the healthcare law: "For years, what we've heard is the biggest problem on the bench was judicial activism or the lack of judicial restraint, that an unelected group of people would somehow overturn a duly constituted and passed law." In doing so Obama was framing the argument he might use should the Court rule against the law, putting the Supreme Court in the role of villain placing its judgement ahead of elected representatives, as the U.S. moves into the presidential election in November 2012.

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The WSJ provides a fact check of Trump statements on crime, debt, and taxes. Trump says he is looking at a new plan for taxes not the $10 trillion in tax cuts over 10 years reducing tax collection by 22%, but something about a third of the size. No details are available on the plan. WSJ disputes Trump's statement that the U.S. is "one of the highest taxed nations in the world." WSJ points out that the U.S. in 2014 for federal, state and local government taxes collected 26% of gross domestic product in taxes, compared to average of 34% for about 30 countries, according to OECD. Debt to GDP ratio is about 75% that is high, but because of low interest rates the budget deficit is less than 3% of GDP, which is close to the long run average. For this reason economists say the government should invest in infrastructure and R&D that supports long run economic growth. On crime the record is mixed with increase in Chicago, Los Angeles, and New York City, but decreases in Washington D.C. and Baltimore. Police shootings were 67 in 2016 compared to 62 in July 2015, and the high being 280 officers in 1974 when Nixon was President. Crime was an issue in the 1968 Republican National Convention during the Vietnam era protests, police shootings and terror incidents attracted attention in July 2016, yet the situation today is very different from the war protests of the Vietnam era. On terrorism fact checks by the NYT and in Lyrarc shows Clinton at State Department and Panetta at Defense Department taking hawkish stands only to hit a barrier from President Obama for taking action needed in Syria, Iraq and Libya. Panetta's new book calls for robust action where needed. A Clinton administration would take action with allies in the Middle East. Even Hollande and Obama who pulled the U.S. and France out of following up in the French-British Sarkozy-Cameron led intervention in Libya, have changed policy, with Obama calling it his biggest mistake. France under Hollande with the U.S. is now actively engaged in the Middle East, having changed policy. It is highly unlikely that a Trump led policy which alienates most allies in the Middle East- Iran, Iraq and Saudis- is likely to work better than a determined Clinton-Panetta led effort which has support of the local countries on the ground actually currently on both sides because of complexities of Middle Eastern politics.  On trade a new administration will still have to work with China, India, the European Union, and other countries, as global trade supply chains are not likely to evolve overnight. Lessons will have been learned by Clinton about the need to bring back jobs and ensure the strength of U.S. manufacturing. Economic and jobs growth will require prudence in strengthening U.S. manufacturing coupled with global cooperation, which a Trump administration that alienates trading partners without the possibility of making any serious immediate gains in jobs, is highly unlikely to do better.      ...

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Intervew by Deborah Solomon with former Clinton era SEC Commissioner, Arthur Levitt, captures the mood of the public in the USA. Super skepticism and disbelief about public servants, including those of some stature in the past like Levitt. The questions are suggestive of the angst and loss of innocence, and willingness to ask the straight question right out. Solomon tries to get Levitt to take responsibility for what has happened under his and others watch. What do you feel Mr Levitt about the American economic landscape and see 401 K's going up in smoke? Have you changed your spending habits? Are you kicking yourself for not having caught Madoff at his game? After you left your SEC post what led you Mr Levitt to become an adviser to the Carlyle Group, which had ties to the Bush family and defense contracting? This question grates on Levitt. He responds that it is such a Michael Moore like exaggeration, that he was an adviser to the Carlyle Group before he went to Washington. And then Ms Solomon asks the question straight out, saying that frankly she can't understand why the SEC culls its leaders from the world of high stakes investment, when there is this "capture theory" that states that regulators get co-opted by the industries they regulate if one isn't very careful. And the response from Levitt is evasive as he talks about the patriotism of the 4,100 people who served with him at the SEC. Ms Solomon isn't accepting this and calls it boosterism, telling Levitt he hasn't answered her question. Levitt tries another escape route and talks about the European system of gray bureaucrats running government agencies forever, and how refreshing the American system of repotting private sector talent to bring fresh ideas is. Solomon's steers the dialogue in another direction. She reminds him about his father Arthur Levitt Sr. , who was the New York State Comptroller for more than 20 years. Yes, says Levitt Sr.'s son, his father was passionate about defending the interests of pensioners, and his mother was a schoolteacher for 38 years. That gets Levitt reminiscing about his growing up years with his grandparents in Brooklyn, when his grandfather would check 75 used bulbs to see if one worked before using a new one. What has thrift got to do with this Solomon starts to think, after all Levitt is an adviser to the Carlyle Group. Put that in your report, yes, says Solomon, I will. Ms Solomon is getting right down to the point by now. Levitt can reminisce about the thrift about the old days, but the public wants answers. Do you feel you should apologize, does this keep you up at night? Levitt's response: not really, I'll try not to think about it. See the link to Rubin's letter of resignation from his position at Citigroup to CEO Vikram Pandit. Rubin another Clinton era adviser and Treasury Secretary, is being asked similar questions....

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Fed chairman Bernanke estimates the impact of "Operation Twist," will be to bring down long term rates by about 20 basis points, or one fifth of a percentage point. This he said is equivalent to reducing the Fed's benchmark short term rates by half a point. The Fed chairman said he is not ruling out expanding the Fed's portfolio by buying securities, but has no immediate plans for this action.

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The prospects for direct U.S. talks with the Taliban after the planned opening of a Taliban office in Qatar. The preliminary efforts were started by U.S. special envoy for S. Asia, Richard Holbrooke. Holbrooke died in 2010, and his successor, Marc Grossman, a former ambassador to Turkey, has continued the efforts as senior representative to Afghanistan and Pakistan. Grossman now has a team of officials from the Defense Department, the State Department and Intelligence agencies working with him. After a decade of war, a shift in public opinion in the U.S. to domestic issues, and a withdrawal date by the international forces set for 2014, the time appears right for the negotiations that would end this war. Grossman has the backing of Secretary of State Hillary Clinton in this push for a negotiated settlement with the Taliban. The recent deterioration of U.S. relations in Pakistan to a breaking point, the complex relationship between the Taliban and the Pakistan military, the growing unpopularity of the U.S. in Pakistan, the meaningless struggle with a Taliban with intrinsic links in the Pakistan military, and the fragility of the elected government in the country are other factors that may be leading the U.S. government to look at the bigger picture and grasp any opportunities towards a negotiated settlement. ...

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After the financial crisis of 2008-2009, commercial real estate defaults posed a serious threat to the US economy. Now this threat is receding with low interest rates making it easier to get cheap financing, which raises the returns. For banks the rising earnings give a cushion to absorb losses, letting them sell distressed properties and not have to hold onto them. From office towers in Manhattan to Florida apartment buildings and retail properties in Washington, commercial real estate values are going up. Prices of commercial real estate properties sold by institutional investors went up by 19% in 2010, according to an index developed by the MIT Center for Real Estate. Investors have boosted the prices of bonds backed by commerical real estate to the highest level in two years. The managing director at Real Capital Analytics says, that with values going up, both the owners and lenders have more room to work out difficult situations. Real Capital Analytics January 2011 report shows that of the $52 billion in retail properties to fall into default, a little over half have completed workouts. In Feb 2010, the Congressional Oversight Panel of the Troubled Asset Relief Program said that the commercial real estate market had the potential to pose a serious threat to the US economy. The panel estimated that about half of the $1.4 trillion in commercial property real estate loans set to be paid off by 2014 were under water, where the borrower owes more than the property is worth. Market segments for hotel, apartment buildings and retail are going up. Hotel occupancy rates in the top 25 markets went up from 60% to 64%, according to Smith Travel Research. Sales of apartment buildings in the US went up as home ownership hit new lows, and lease rates went up to the highest levels in 4 years, according to Axiometrics....

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U.S. Senator Ben Sasse suggests an alternative approach of simply repealing the Affordable Care Act called Obamacare and replacing it at a later date. This is endorsed by president Trump. This is the new Republican strategy in July 2017. Forty nine senators voted in favor of this repeal in 2015, when president Obama vetoed this legislation. Two more senators are expected to support repeal according to Ben Sasse.

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Here are 11 big infrastructure projects that are planned across the country. They are part of the $2.2 trillion of projects to build or repair infrastructure, that is estimated by the American Society of Civil Engineers as needed by America today. But there is only $100 billion for infrastructure spending in the Stimulus Plan, and much of this will go to keeping existing infrastructure, a dilapidated bridge here or road there in repair. Only $50 billion is available for transportation projects. The rapid transit planned for California with trains twice as fast as Acela for a 800 mile track is estimated at $45 billion, but there is only $11 billion in the Stimulus for mass transit aand cities like Washington DC for Dulles airport with its need for a airport train, and other mass transit projects around the country wil compete for the same money. As a result most will go unfunded. The Second Avenue Subway in New York at $4.35 billion, Miami Port Tunnel at $1 billion, Bridge to Canada from Detroit for $1.8 billion, Hudson Rail Tunnel for New York at $8.75 billion, Seattle Highway Tunnel at $4.24 billion, Gulf ports at New Orleans and Gulfport, Mississippi at $2.04 billion, tens of billions for new California aqueduct bypassing the delta around Sacramento to bring water from north to arid Southern part of California, NestGen Air Traffic Control for $15 billion to $22 billion, are the other projects on this list. Many of these are badly needed and have been waiting for years to get the necessary investment. This is only a partial list, and suggests that there are a lot of projects that can productively use government investment, so that wasteful spending does not occur. It appears that the projects are there because these areas were neglected for a long period, more like the situation faced during the post Thatcher period in the UK, where infrastructure and services had been neglected for so long that Labor governments could productively channel new investment in these areas to avoid wasteful spending. And it appears that the situation is very different from Japan where the Liberal Democratic Party had a vested interest in keeping its farm and rural base happy with new projects, like a bridge to nowhere, that led to wasteful spending for a decade or more, leading to rising deficits and investments that did not create productive returns in terms of economic growth. By contrast these projects have potential to generate productive returns for years into the future and also are large enough to create jobs and be spread out over a number of years. This could end up being a real bright spot in the current situation. Felix Rohatyn, who helped New York rebuild its finances afte a crisis, has a new book "Bold Endeavors: How our Government Built America, and Why It Must Rebuild Now", using examples like the rebuilding of the Erie Canal, the transcontinental railroad, and the Interstate Highway System, and says the US needs to build for the future with more ambitious, better planned projects today. He says, that infrastructure is not an expense, it has to be seen as a vitally needed and productive investment. People like Rohatyn and others see the Stimlulus plan as a missed opportunity because a lot of these projects mentioned here and the numerous others not shown here will simply not see much money from the government to support them and get them off the ground. The idea that this is wasteful government spending that is spreading, may be a danger to this vision and opportunity. At the same time the reality is that if all this was happening during the time of the Erie Canal or the postwar period of the Interstate Highway System it would have been much easier to support. The banking crisis fix is taking away so many of the dollars that could have gone here, that this may be the missed opportunity, the lack of room for visionary investments because of the danger of pushing the government deficit to 60% of GDP with the current spending plans. ...

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Lack of any effort by Democrats and Republicans to come up with a negotiated agreement to end the $85 billion in sequester automatic spending cuts in the U.S. for 2013. For the Republicans the risk is that president Obama gains ground in preparation for the 2014 midterm elections. For president Obama the risk is that his will become a distraction for his second term legislative agenda including immigration reform, and other legislation.

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Ezra Klein writes that he disagrees with Bob Woodward's assessment that the Obama administration moved the goalposts by trying to secure an increase in taxes to pay for the deficit. Klein says voters voted in favor of an increase in taxes as part of the effort to reduce the deficit when they elected Obama to a second term.

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Cohen says you canno carve on rotten wood. The democratic transition in Egypt has to be done without Mubarak. For Obama he says a failure in the first foreign policy crisis of his administration would be really stark in 2012.