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2014 Xi visits Gandhiji's Sabarmati Ashram as is shown in this picture in BBC News and is curious how the weaving is done by hand taking a try at it with prime minister Modi, both sitting on the floor Asian style. In 2020 China advances its troops in a part of Ladakh leading to a clash with Indian forces. What happened? India's resilience in the face of the pandemic and the bright future for its economy, greater integration with the American and European Union economies in its draft plan to 2030. A sense in China's leadership that India's modernization would follow in the same way that China's and South Korea's have followed Japan's modernization. A sense also that better relations with the US and the European Union would require better relations with India, as an indispensable condition. A sense also that the issue of Taiwan was a bigger issue and a core interest for China than the border disputes in the remote regions of the Himalayas. It just did not make sense to have a conflict with India in the priorities of China to 2030 or 2040. That India needed to be seen not through the lens of the British but as an ancient nation that had similarities with China and Japan from its Buddhist roots. ...

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When shortages of wheat following the war in Ukraine are causing a crisis in some countries such as Egypt and Africa, there are other unusual changes  as emerging market currencies such as the Brazilian Real and the Chilean Peso, South African Rand are increasing in value. Even with the strengthening of the US dollar the supply chain disruptions are benefiting exporters of soyabeans such as Brazil and Argentina, and copper such as Chile with strengthening of their currencies. The Brazilian Real has strengthened by 13%. The WSJ calls it the sharpest commodities rally in modern trading history. One analyst says this is unusual how emerging market currencies could rally in the first quarter of 2022 with war in Ukraine, supply chain disruption, strengthening dollar reaching almost parity with the euro.  Today this is a positive sign for the Free World in Latin America. Currencies weakening are ones in countries exposed to a sharply slowing Chinese economy and rising energy costs such as Thai Baht and South Korean Won.  Brazil's central bank is also increasing its lending rate to the highest level in 5 years. Other American allies in Eastern Europe such as Poland which has taken in 3 million Ukraine refugees are also seeing a strengthening currency in this new situation. The National Bank of Poland increased its key lending rate by three quarters of a point to 5.25% which has attracted investors to the Polish currency the Zloty. ...

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University fees in Britain are set at 9250 pounds a year and millions of people have tens of thousands of student debt. The student loan book in Britain is already at 120 billion pounds and it weighs in heavily on young people starting life after college affecting the quality of life. 

The Green party says it will cost 40 billion pounds for waiver of recoverable student debt over 5 years. The Labour Party in Britain is looking at following the Green Party's support of writing off the student debt. Labour has said it will abolish student fees. Labour party's McDowell says the system was designed so that much of the student debt would remain unpaid and it is time to clear this and take this burden off the shoulders of young people. 

This would also give the economy a boost as young people are better able to afford basics such as housing, food and services after this is lifted.

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Having Powell at the Fed at this time is a major asset for the US economy as he tries to navigate the tariffs situation in 2025. Powell is widely credited with tackling inflation and the supply chain shock following the pandemic that led to surging inflation. Powell has said that the DJT tariffs have come from other nations not allowing a level playing field by subsidizing their industries and giving unfair advantage to their companies, DJT has justified tariffs action as limited to ensuring a level playing field, calling reciprocal as limiting tariffs to what the other nation charges the US, a way of saying this is based on fairness principle in trade and business.

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The number of unemployed in Spain reaches 5.6 million people in April 2012. Finance Minister Guindos said the only bright spot was exports and a drop in the current account deficit which shows Spain's improving competitiveness: "This shows the Spanish economy is competitive, unlike some other European economies, thats the most important element of optimism for the future." The Spanish cabinet approved a Stability Program Report to be submitted to the European Union showing GDP growth of 0.2% in 2013 and 1.4% in 2014, following contraction of 1.7% in 2012, and unemployment falling slightly to 24.2% in 2013. Spain's government debt level is shown at 82.3% of GDP in 2013 declining to 81.5% in 2014.

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With the aggressive actions taken along the 1600 kilometre border in eastern Ladakh by China's People's Liberation Army, India needs a younger soldier to protect the border at high altitudes in below freezing temperatures. The entire 3500 kilometre border in the high Himalayan regions from east to west need technology driven surveillance with soldiers fit and ready for such duty. Agnipath's goal is to bring down the average age in the army from 32 years to 26 years to better reflect the youthful population in India. A tighter better disciplined force with high tech is needed. Bringing in more and new recruits is intended. Both the 25% of recruits retained after 4 years benefit and the 75% benefit. The 25% will have opportunities to move up the ranks. The 75% who come back out of the military will have the advanced technical training and courses, certification, that would make them attractive to the public and private sector companies in 2026 and beyond when India's economy will be 50% larger than today at growth rates of 10-12%. This is already seen in the way technologically trained military recruits from World War II in the US Army, Navy and Air Force were quickly absorbed at high salaries in the high growth period of America 1950-1970, with incentives like the GI Bill. Modifications that could be discussed- The 25% retained after 4 years. There is no magic number it could be raised to 30 or 40% during these post pandemic years and then lowered to 25% as the economy grows rapidly by 2025, or kept at 30% without changes, a number of options could be open.The financial aspect of the training can be modified where the 25% retained could have these 4 years added to their years for calculating pensions. The 75% are given 1.2 million rupees and even this can be adjusted upwards so that they could start businesses as entrepreneurs or have the time to pursue higher education before taking up for example with free education to enhance their education in areas of interest as was given by the GI bill to Americans in the armed services after World War II in 1946. Ideas from the GI Bill signed by president Franklin Roosvelt in 1944- Adding one year of unemployment payments, low interest loans to start a farm or business, full tution and living expenses for college. In 2008 the Veterans Act in the US continued support for education of servicement by making eduction free at a public college or university.  The Roosevelt GI bill benefited about 7.8 million servicemen in the US armed services. 2.2 million went to college, 7.6 million took training programs. It was an impressive achievement. No scheme is perfect there are budgetary constraints such as how to manage pensions to give the armed services the best possible funding including the training and course capabilities that also need good financing and the higher pensions for armed services. Every political party  government around the world without exception will have to face these budgetary constraints and the goal is to do right by the armed services providing the income and opportunities they deserve. Was a decent effort made with the right goals set? This is how these matters of national interest for India and the Free World that includes South East Asia, Africa and Latin America, should be discussed.    ...

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Jean-Luc Melenchon, for two decades at the fringes of French politics, has a carefully prepared program to address the concerns of working class voters in France. He has not appealed directly to yellow vest voters so as not to affect relations with other moderate voters. He is now accepted by French business because of his detailed action plan for the French economy and French workers. Other voters see him as the only one with a serious action plan with his plan for the Sixth Republic removing the powerful executive presidency setup by De Gaulle and drafting a new constitution.

He has condemned the Russian invasion of Ukraine yet says it does not help to humiliate Russia and setup more NATO countries close to its borders. During any negotiations both Russia and Ukraine have now accepted the idea of Ukraine enjoying neutral country status in the same way as Sweden. 

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Changes in the management board at  VW that will lead to an accelerated investment in electric vehicles. Labor leaders had sought to oust CEO Herbert Diess. Mr. Diess will no longer oversee the VW brand or the company's business in China. The management board is expanded to 11 from seven previously. Three new board positions were created two filled by women. The result is that Mr. Diess will now be working with overall guidance from the board and other members that seeks to accelerate VW's conversion into an electric car company. About $180 billion in investment was approved half of this going into digitization and electric cars.

These changes are happening as Germany goes in a new direction under the leadership of Mr Scholz of the SPD and the Greens vice chancellor, Mr Habeck, who is also in charge of an expanded economy ministry including climate change, with large investments planned to combat climate change.

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After recovering from the eurozone financial crisis Spain is recovering with low inflation of 1.8%, and growth of 2.4% in 2024, 2.1% in 2025, and unemployment at 11.2%. Even with high unemployment prime minister Pedro Sanchez of Spain sees new immigrant workers aiding higher growth and supporting pensions- Spain's tourism growth also supports this. “The contribution of migrant workers to our economy is fundamental, as is the sustainability of our social security system and pensions.” This makes Spain one of the only countries to continue supporting legal migration to the country- 250,000 are needed both in high skilled jobs in hospitality and construction, and "invisible" jobs in agriculture and other places. 1 million migrants will arrive each year till 2028. Spain will also give legal stats to 500,000 undocumented migrants mostly from Latin America including Venezuela's middle class. ...

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Shinzo Abe is determined to avoid the mistakes made during his last term as prime minister 2006-2007, which lasted only 10 months and ended with defeat in the upper house elections. The LDP is aware that it won by a landslide because of the splintered opposition. The LDP won only 40% of the vote in the electoral districts in Japan. His focus will be on the economy, on tackling deflation, on central bank policy and efforts to support exporters with a weaker yen, and this time he will be cautious about sounding too nationalistic. Abe told a news conference: "I once fell to rock bottom and was hit with a storm of criticism. Now, I want to prove it's possible to start over again." During 2006-2007 Abe followed a popular LDP leader, Junichiro Koizumi, and hope that he represented a new post war generation of leaders. One approach he might take is to stay close to the U.S. on policies. The early stumble in this respect hurt DPJ's prime minister Yuko Hatoyama after differences with the U.S. shortened his term in office....

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The language and tone of the leaders says something about what is likely to be the outcome of the G20 summit. Its a first for significant participation, as countries as diverse as Russia, China, India, Indonesia, Saudi Arabia, and the Netherlands are represented. The credible positions of both sides, the US, UK and Japan, and the European side of France, Germany and the Czech Republic, well presented, provide for some serious discussion and negotiations. France's Sarkozy and Germany's Merkel want to see a global regulator that would reach inside the borders of the US with stricter regulation. Sarkozy calls this "nonnegotiable." And he said that he would reject an agreement that puts off stringent new regulations on banks, tax havens, and hedge funds. He said "the compromise has to come from all countries around the world." US President Obama said that if there is going to be renewed growth it can't just be the US as the engine, everybody is going to have to pick up the pace," at the same time saying that the US had to be concerned about its own deficits. The fact is that the US stimulus will mostly help a severely impacted domestic economy recover with social safey net payments to local and state governments and unemployment insurance, as well as targeted investments in infrastructure, education, energy and health care. It will not mean anywhere near the kinds of imports the US made from other countries, especially China. And Obama made that clear when he said the US will never return to that situation, where the US had become a "voracious consumer market." For the Germans the major market for their middle companies is China, and China has its own stimulus spending on infrastructure spending, which should provide for continued imports of machinery from Germany at a much lower level. Thus Germany and France see a strong tendency to call the source of the crisis and repeat that call till the US listens, and refer to the failure of free market capitalism in its unregulated form. And to insist on fixing it through a global regulator with strict and systemwide rules. So you hear this in Merkel's words, "the foundation for this finacial architecture must be laid now, that is why we seem to be so tough." While the vivacious Sarkozy talks of compromise, and a US gesture in regulation in return for Franc's gesture of joining NATO, the mild mannered Merkel is clear and focussed about her concern. She rejects the idea of linking stimulus spending demands of the Anglo-Americans with the Franco-German demands for global systemwide regulation. "This is not a bargaining chip," she says. The media may mistakenly report lack of consensus as a failure of the summit. But in the long run in the presence of good positions on both sides, it could lead to some tough negotiations even if continued at another meeting. And result in something serious, credible and lasting in its impact, rather than something that was easy and did not in Andy Grove's useful words involve "constructive confrontation." ...

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The National Front party of Jean-Marie Le Pen received over 20% of the vote in the first round of the presidential election in France. Socialist candidate Hollande received 27% and Sarkozy 25%, with about 80% of the votes counted. Jean-Marie Le Pen campaigned on the economy and fears of economic decline, as well as in favor of French national identity. She called for France to leave the EU.

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One of Britain's largest infrastructure projects HS2 gets the go ahead from prime minister Johnson. The project was estimated at 66 billion pounds in 2015, is now at 88 billion pounds. It cuts intercity time by rail significantly between London, Birmingham, Leeds and the West Midlands, to boost the economy. Infrastructure is a key part of the program of Mr. Boris Johnson.

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The $369 billion climate and tax package that is coming out of a deal arranged by Schumer in the US Senate could be a path breaking action. It would enable president Biden to get close to the climate goals he promised last year of cutting US carbon emissions by 50% by 2030 over 2005 levels to combat effects of climate change. The $369 billion package would get the US to reduce carbon emissions by 40% in 2030 over 2005 levels.  Severe effects of climate change with fires and floods in the US, Europe, and Asia have brought a new spotlight to the issues facing the world and the fact that something needs to be done quickly with the US leading the way. Senator Manchin a holdout because he comes from a coal mining state was a holdout. He was persuaded to join as the new legislation provides for support for transmission lines and other investment during a transition period so that it does not affect the economy in his state. The transition period is now accepted as Europe now looks at gas and coal as a temporary resource following the cutoff of Russian supplies and the US will be shipping more LNG to Europe during this period. The vote for this legislation is planned under reconciliation so that the vice president MS. Harris can cast the deciding vote for Democrats in a 50-50 split Senate. Republicans oppose the legislation. Manchin now says it will reduce inflation. Briefly it will give $7500 to every buyer of an electric vehicle EV, and $4000 for a used EV. It would give rebates for heat pumps that increase home energy efficiency. Billions of dollars would be spent for clean energy industries, and for solar, wind, geothermal, other renewable energy projects. Democrats want to get the legislation through the Senate quickly by next week, and so secret were Schumer's negotiations that most Democrats did not know about it. Coming on the heels of the $280 billion CHIPS and Science bill for $280 billion investment in US semiconductor industry, this will be a big win for president Biden and shows the persistence and patience of Mr. Biden is paying off.   ...

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Chile's new constitution that replaces one written in 1980 under military rule, is likely to be rejected in a vote on September 4. It puts every conceivable right into the constitution beyond the basic rights of fairness in the economic, in incomes, in health and education services access, and pensions the original reasons for the two years of protests. About 80% of the Chileans voted in members of the constitution drafting boy the Convention. About 47% say reject and 38 say accept, 17% undecided at this time in a poll cited by DW.com. Controversial are judicial setup for indigenous groups (13% of Chileans), abortion in a predominantly Catholic country, and women holding 50% of positions in all public positions as mandatory, and the environment in a predominantly copper export based economy.

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It is not clear what this bazooka is. China's leaders are studying the economy carefully. Recent actions for stimulus were designed to offset weak performance of stock markets which have rebounded with Shanghai index up 11% into positive territory. Consumption spending is weak with worries about the safety net and propensity to save so that lower mortgage rates will mean households will pay of their mortgage first before increasing spending. Real estate construction is weak after bankruptcies in this sector. Some suggestions are for China to improve its safety net as in the US for working class people, low income families- to give them better medical insurance. And increase pensions of farmers, migrant workers, and low income families. They may still be inclined to save yet it is a move in the right direction as is happening in the US, and the trend worldwide is to reduce stark social divisions. China just lacks the resources for the kind of revival in the US that Harris has planned. As long as the US was frittering away its resources in foreign wars it had one hand tied behind it's back, as long as it did not invest these dollars going to wars overseas in the domestic economy it would languish and fall behind. It was in this sense Joe Biden who did the hard work that Trump after raising the alarm signals failed to do for lack of focus, and now it is Harris who is building the game plan for the kind of US that led the US into the twentieth century once before- optimism, imagination and hard work. ...

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The NYT editorial says the negative feedback loop of foreclosures begetting falling house prices, which beget more foreclosures, and further weaken banks, is well under way. One way to have broken this, was to enable good types of loan modifications, which reduce the principal for homeowners and reduce payments significantly. Sheila Bair at FDIC says 32% of prior payments is about the right amount. The bad types of loan modifications that lead to no reduction in principal, and put homeowners back in redefault because of large payments that homeowners "under water" or a lost job cannot afford, have so far been the dominant kind of loan modification. At present 14 million homeowners are "under water," in that their homes are worth less than what is owed on the mortgage. One of the crucial measures which would have enabled this, has not been pushed by the Obama administration through Congress. This was to pass an amendment that allowed bankruptcy judges to modify troubled mortgages. Banks which have taken billions of dollars in loans from the federal government were allowed to lobby aggressively to kill this amendment, and the Obama administration did little to push this amendment in Congress. 12 Senate Democrats joined 39 Senate Republicans to block a vote on the amendment. Says the NYT editorial "when the time came to stand up to the banking lobbies and cajole yes votes from reluctant senators-the White House did'nt. When the measure failed there wasn't even a statement of regret." This could turn out to be a major mistake, because as the NYT points out voluntary loan modifications have shown poor results. The administration's plan to provide incentives for loan modification is untried and tested, and may not produce significant results. With 14 million homeowners under water, and spiralling foreclosures, the situation may get out of control and seriously damage the economy. After the moratorium in home foreclosures ended there is expected to be a big surge in foreclosures, with estimates of 290,000 to 341,000 foreclosures in March, 2009. If this is allowed to continue it will undo all the good work in other areas, the stimulus spending, rebuilding the auto industry and other steps. It will also be more difficult to reverse as valuable time passes and the cost of the crisis escalates. A consensus among many experts was that stronger action in connection with the banks was required, and Martin Feldstein has warned about the danger posed by foreclosures since early 2008, see links....

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Barkha Dut says it is unacceptable that the Modi government- elected after corruption scandals in the previous Congress party government- allow the cronyism and collusion between business and government that existed under the Congress party in India. The $1.8 billion fraud at state owned PNB bank has drawn attention to banking and bad loans in India. Dutt  cites an Indiaspend report that shows in 2016 and 2017 5200 "wilfull defaulters"  made up bad loans given by the state owned banks of $8.65 billion, larger than the government allocation for farmer and agricultural welfare. Agriculture and rural farmers still make up a large part of the Indian economy and national elections results can be determined by how well the farmers are doing. In the recent Gujarat elections in Modi's home state the lower farm support prices for cotton farmers in Saurashtra region of the state led to Modi's BJP party losing that region in the state, and barely winning the election in the state with a thin majority. As a result the farm support prices for an extended list of farm crops was increased to 1.5 times the cost to farmers in the new 2018 Modi government Budget. To maintain a  steady industry and business policy for industrialization and modernization any Indian government needs the support of farmers. Modi has raised the issue of bad loans in the state banking system as being generated under the previous Congress government in a speech to parliament. A cleanup of bad loans in the banking system is needed to generate growth and investment for the Indian economy. Good governance in the country's banking system and vigilance of regulators is needed along with this cleanup of bad loans, as public confidence is shaken. ...

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People in Poland, Hungary, and other countries in Central Europe took out mortgages in Swiss Francs. The jump in the value of the Franc means their payments go up increasing economic pain in these countries. In Hungary the government of Viktor Orban has converted most franc loans into local currency forint loans at favorable rates and this will now be seen as a remarkably positive move. Poland has a growing economy compared to Hungary with borrowers in francs with higher incomes than Hungary, yet with 37% of the homeowner loans in Swiss Francs political parties are looking for support before elections offering to shift these loans into the local currency. Banks in Poland are well capitalized and are not likely to be seriously affected.

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Modi and Delhi election- Modi's party the BJP wins 50 of 70 seats Feb 2025. Of the hundreds of lines of text in this takeaway on local politics in the Times of India not one line can be found on how it relates to Vikshit Bharat 2047, the goal of a developed economy and modernization of Bharat. Being so close the TOI cannot see the forest, just the trees. Surely Delhiites will not have not noticed the idea of Vikshit Bharat 2047? The 10-15-20 year target of modernization of the Indian economy in the nation's capital. The question in the Lok Sabha elections of 2024 was whether after struggling to keep up with Europe's changes in the modern scientific observation mind during the Renaissance period in the 15th century amid invasions from western Asia, and losing its independence by the 17th and 18th centuries, India would see its modernization blocked by a lack of clear focused development without a majority party in charge. The setbacks in Maharashtra and in Uttar Pradesh for Modi and the BJP in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections were reversed in Maharashtra within 1 year in the Maharashtra Assembly elections in 2024 with a BJP landslide. This win in the nations federal capital Delhi now added to the win in Mumbai the commercial capital (Maharashtra) brings together the entire regional capitals Mumbai- Ahmedabad-Jaipur-Delhi-Indore-Lucknow together as one region for modernization and investment for the first time in 75 years. Large investment in Bihar and Orissa, Andhra Pradesh in the Eastern states in 2024 and 2025 Indian Budgets create a new Way Forward for India to Vikshit Bharat 2035, and onto Vikshit Bharat 2047. ...

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Alexander Freund of DW.com looks at the BRICs conference in Xiamen, China, and says its members are all facing serious problems at home. China's growth has slowed, and it faces problems with large debt, need to reorient the economy away from dependence on exports, and a bubble in real estate markets. Russia and Brazil are both hit by drop in oil and commodities prices, and Brazil's ruling elite faces corruption charges. South Africa's economy under president Zuma faces problems of mismanagement of the economy and corruption. Only India says Freund, is the bright light in this group. The Modi government in India is working on removing barriers to growth such as bureaucratic hurdles, unification of tax scheme through the new unified GST for the whole country, and efforts to attract foreign investment. In many ways the BRICs has become a thing of the past as China focusses on its own Belt and Road Initiative and tackles its internal problems. The border dispute between India and China at the time of the BRICs conference in Xiamen shows a lack of policy agreement on economic and development priorities between the two major countries in that group. This had the effect of reducing whatever impact BRICs had in the past. The term originated at an American investment bank and it appears to be an odd grouping of countries today. ...

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The oldest sister of the Thai King Princess Ubolaratana is running as the candidate of the Thai Raksa Party of the Opposition in the presidential election. The military runs the country and the military's candidate was expected to win the election. The entry of the royals puts a new twist in the plans of the military to continue running the country.

Thailand's economy has slowed down and it faces competition from Vietnam. For 20 years Thailand is split between the Thaksin faction which favors the rural north and northeast of the country, and the military, government bureaucracy in Bangkok. Elections were won by the Thaksin faction till the military intervened. The royals were seen as being with the military till this time.

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The Economist magazine says parliament in Britain should act to pass a motion of no- confidence for the Boris Johnson government. It says Mr.Johnson's action stifling parliamentary democracy by suspending parliament in the weeks before the Brexit date of October 31st is reason for the opposition and Tory rebels to set aside their differences. Without this Mr. Johnson could take Britain out of the European Union without any deal. This would damage the economy, leaving Britons poorer, and create unrest in Northern Ireland.

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The situation in small towns in East Germany such as Loecknitz on the Polish border. The economy is depressed with unemployment twice the level in West Germany, and young people moving away. The economy on the Polish side is much healthier and Poles are moving to the German side from the Polish city of Szczecin, a 30 minute drive. Poles are also buying depressed German real estate and starting businesses. This is adding to the local economy as young Germans have moved to the larger cities but there is the sense of being left behind among some Germans. It comes from the period of reunification when after investing $2 trillion to integrate the two economies the best that could be done was making cities like Leipzig and Dresden in the east prosper but leaving the coutnryside in East Germany in an abandoned state as young people sought opportunities elsewhere. This may be why Angela Merkel who grew up and studied in the former East Germany told the German parliament in June 2012, "Germany's strength is not infinite. Germany's powers, too, are not unlimited."...

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Robert Lighthizer, was deputy trade representative for the Reagan administration. He says, trade is one area in which the establishment has simply got it wrong. In this area there is little difference between George Bush, Bill Clinton, Obama and Republican politicians. It is one area, he says, where the feeling that elites are thwarting the will of the voters resonates most. He says the talk about America's decline, and the idea that the 21st century belongs to China, leaves voters unconvinced that our trade policy is working for America. For voters who are unconvinced, it makes sense to have a nationalist trade policy that takes on foreign abuses and fights for American interests. He cites 2 statistics that worry these voters. One is the huge trade imbalances that require the USA to sell hundreds of billions of dollars in assets each year. The value of foreign investments in the USA exceeds the value of American investments abroad by $2.74 trillion, and China by itself has $2.5 trillion in foreign currency reserves, mostly in dollars. The other fact is that while the trade deficit for the last decade was about $4.3 trillion for the last decade, America also lost 5.6 millon jobs. And its becoming increasingly clear that as with managed currencies such as the Chinese yuan, and other trade practices, the rest of the world is stacking the free-trade deck against us. ...