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The political deadlock between U.S. Congress and the President and its impact on efforts to reduce the unemployment rate. The failure of the Obama administration and Congress to tackle the jobs issue, leaving too much of the burden of action on the Federal Reserve.

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The unemployment rate for young people 16-24 years old is 18% in the USA in 2009, up from 13% in 2008. This has serious consequences, creating a lost generation as happened in Japan in the last decade.

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Policymakers have alot of mistakes and errors to avoid in the years ahead, things are by no means normal. And the normal of the future after the crisis is going to be one of slow growth, large deficits and high unemployment.

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A congressional oversight panel reported in October 2009 that fewer than 2000 of 500,000 loan modification applications in progressunder the Making Homes Affordable program of the Obama adminsitration had become permanent. When Treasury reports on the program in December 2009 its expected to report that the number of permanentloan modifications are in the tens of thousands out of 650,000 borrowers in the program. Mortgage companies are collecting lucrative fees on long term delinquencies so there is not enough incentive to make permanent loan modifications according to lawers defending homeowners.

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Mexico's President appointed Carstens as Central Bank chief replacing Ortiz, who had held a strict line against inflation bring in down to 4% even as Mexico's economic growth declined in 2009 with a 7% drop in GDP. Ortiz differed with President Calderon and saw his mandate as acting strctly to keep inflation under control. Now Calderon is emphasizing job creation and growth. He appointed Social Developmet Minister Cordero to the post of Finance Minister. Until now Mexican Presidents including predecessor Vicente Fox relied on technolcrats to run financial positions.

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The loss of state support in the 1980's resulted in the gradual withering of the health care system in China as individuals bore the brunt of health care costs. Hospitals and clinics shifted to pay as you go system, with the emphasis on prescribing treatment that would boost income including costly tests.

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Matt Vela responded to Shailen's comments on this article on the BW site. Comments were on NYTimes columnist Tom Friedman's remarks, about the dangers of overdependence on Mideast oil vs. GM and Ford's efforts to simply move cars off the lot. A quick reading of reader comments about 5-6 (all comments) shows a huge perception and marketing gap for Ford and GM if this is even anywhere near a representative sample, because they were heavily negative. Friedman said in the NYT, that "GM is more dangerous to America's future" than any other company, that "its like a crack dealer" addicting Americans to SUVs in the face of higher gas prices- by offering buyers of its least fuel efficient SUV's gas capped at $1.99 per gallon. He also said GM is in cabal with Ford and DaimlerChrysler to buy votes in Congress. BY May 2006 compared to 2003, in just 3 years, once popular midsize SUV's like the Ford Explorer, Chevy Trailblazer, and Dodge Durango saw a sales plunge of 50%. And this after the gas promotions such as the Ford one for free gas upto $1000 with aprepaid Master Charge debit card, enough for 6000 miles. Add to this zero percent financing. GM offered rebates of $2500 to $3500 per SUV. In this manner the whole profit structure of SUV's is being lowered, and no new strategy is being developed to deal with changing conditions and changing consumer preferences, and a changing global situation....

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The SEC requirement that companies disclose the ratio between median worker pay and the pay of senior executives. The SEC says it is putting out the rule as part of implementing Dodd-Frank legislation to control excessive executive pay. Companies will be allowed to survey a fraction of their workforce as appropriate for companies with global operations. Executive pay will include pension benefits and stock options under the new rule. A WSJ chart using information from the University of Southern California and the Bureau of Labor Statistics, shows the ratio between what CEO's on average make and rank and file workers make remained at about 30 times in the post war period till about 1970, a period of rapid growth in the U.S. economy. By 1980 this climbed to about 60 times and exceeded 100 times by 1990. The period of stratospheric growth for CEO pay and extreme widening of the gap then occurs between 1990 and 2000. By 2000 the dot com boom- telecom boom and the internet- creates a surge in executive pay reaching over 500 times. This drops to about 280 times in 2008 and picks up again to reach about 320 times in 2011. Many of the poor business practices, the excessive leveraging and risktaking in the financial industry, take place against this background of excessive pay for senior executives. Some of that risk was passed on to others through such methods as securitization in the period leading to the 2008 financial crisis, so that executives were compensated with higher pay for taking excessive risk that they personally or their companies did not assume. Dodd-Frank legislation following the 2008 financial crisis sought to correct this imbalance by having pay information disclosed. The excessive pay has also coincided with an increase in the frequency of boom-bust cycles in the economy. The busts prompted the needs for intervention by the U.S. central bank, the Federal Reserve, to drop interest rates more than would otherwise have happened during this decade, culminating in the huge bond purchases and monetary easing by the Bernanke Fed. The SEC under Mary Jo White is mindful of these distortions in the economy as a result of misallocation of resources based on excessive executive pay, and the need to take action before the next crisis. ...

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Mortimer Zuckerman, publisher of U.S. News and World Report, looks behind the unemployment numbers and points to U-6 the real measure of under utilized labor and of workers working part time because of a lack of full time work, and says this is at about 15%. Add the eight million who quit looking and it is 19%, says Zuckerman The unemployment rate of 8.1% does not reflect the eight million workers who have quit looking. The long term unemployed, workers unemployed for more than 27 weeks is at 40.7%, or 5.2 million workers. Fewer Americans work today than in 2000, even though the population has increased by 31 million. Only 96,000 jobs were generated in August 2012. Something is seriously wrong and the right steps have not been taken.

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Wagoner became President at age 45, CEO at age 48. So you would think that young blood is coming in to GM, but that does not appear to be the case. At the Board level most of the Board members like George Fisher formerly of Motorola, have been around for a long time, and there does not appear to be new blood that would bring in fresh thinking. And serious decisions about investment in developing new technologies to develop fuel efficient cars, like hybrid technologies, electric and other alternative technologies, diesel technology, have been held up for years at General Motors. The way decisions are made on such issues with Board members voicing their opinions more than wrestling seriously with the issues, shows serious shortcomings of management and the Board. At key points of decision making the CEO and key members of his team had not prepared carefully, and Board members did not come up with serious thinking on the problems facing GM. It, appears that the investment in technologies to develop fuel efficient cars much earlier, long before they were finally being addressed in 2006, was a failure of Wagoner's management and of the Board. Management discussed this but continued to be mired in old ways of thinking that continuing with the status quo- cars with existing low fuel efficiency- would not expose GM to illwinds as preferences changed. Its clear from the description here of discussions within GM that the old thinking is quite entrenched at GM, and Wagoner just was not the kind of person who could vigorously articulate a new vision for GM. A couple of things are noteworthy in this account of management indecision at GM. When fuel prices began hurting sales of SUV's and large vehicles in 2005, efforts to get a decision on investments in new technologies for fuel efficiency for the whole product lineup failed at the Board level in an April 2005 meeting. One Board member saying at that meeting, that" do we want to lose another billion dollars in developing new technology for fuel efficient cars." And no one calling him to account that the remark still did not address the point that GM had to respond to the changing market and world oil dynamics, and not just hope for the best, as GM had aggressive competitors, and faced continually diminishing role in the market place for the entire decade of the 1990's. While April 2005 was already at the tail end of the previous era of gas guzzling cars and a decision then would still not have shown a forward looking vision of things, it was not until 10 months later that a decision was reached. And this almost from necessity, as oil prices jumped in 2006 after hurricane Katrina, and by this time President Bush was also calling for higher mandated fuel efficiency standards. The other noteworthy point here is that by making the changes so late in the game, GM had to compress the development cycle for new and some cases unknown technologies into short time frames. If the ingenuity of its engineers comes to its rescue it still faces another hurdle that of cost, because the technologies have to be perfected and improved, so that the costs are low enough for customers, and importantly comparable with what it is costing competitors to make the same fuel efficient technology engine or other part. Which is why one Honda executive remarked, "GM like everyone else is serious about this, because they have to be, but how many of their hybrids and how many Volts will they sell? Their technology is very expensive." Even if GM develops the Volt electric car by 2010, GM will need a whole range of fuel efficient technolgies to power its large product lineup. Its just to hard to avoid the conclusion that this is going to prove costly. All the dragging of feet and indecision, and failure to prepare GM for a different world in case something drastically different from what was expected happened, will prove very costly especially considering how aggressive and well financed some of the Japanese and German competitors are. It also hard to avoid the conclusion that there is too much bureaucracy at the large auto companies, and getting new blood and new ideas and fresh thinking is tough in a place where everybody agrees with everybody else, and there is uniformity of thinking. This makes it difficult for any original or wayward types to thrive. These bureaucracies look up to the top for direction. Initiative is discouraged on one hand, and at the same time even if a new direction is taken at the top. a lot of resistance can be expected to implementing it throughout the company without persistent persuasion and reminder of new facts and realities. This is true for both Wagoner and Mullaly as they face the skepticism of subordinates to new direction. Mullaly for instance has to remind his managers that large vehicles are only a small percentage of the entire global market, and if Toyota is making money in small cars so can Ford. See the link to this. Is Toyota immune from bureaucracy type behaviour throughout the company? Not really, Toyota's chairman emeritus came out of retirement in fact and went out of the way to caution its CEO and management about their complacency a year or so before. Shoichiro Toyoda personally intervened to caution against too much expansion in the US and climbing wage costs, and other risks they perceived such as the company managers in the USA appearing to be resting on their laurels. See the link to this. A lot of discussion is probably going on within these companies about the present state of affairs, and considerable anxiety for what the future will bring. It may be useful to ask the question is there something that makes it difficult for once successful organizations -now with entrenched bureaucracy and set ways -to put forward leaders with vision and foresight, till it becomes very late? The vision and foresight about where their markets and the world is heading, and the ability to move their organizations in that direction. Or to break out of old patterns of behaviour and thinking....

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R.E.O. is lingo for "Real Estate Owned," the term for homes taken in by banks that are from foreclosures. Reomac is the industry group that specializes in the sales of such homes. And "REO tsunami" refers to the flood of some 700,000 bank properties now on the market nationwide. Therre were just 100,000 in 2006. In February, nearly 45% of the home sales natinwide were called short sales in which homeowners under duress sell a property for less than their mortgage, according to the National Associaiton of Realtors. These sales have worsened a natiowide decline in home values, as REO homes typically sell at a 20% discount. Reomac just held its 2009 conference at Palm Desert. The extravagance and the excess at the conference is amazing considering that the whole country is facing this crisis and California is one of the hardest hit states. From the way people are trying to get these properties one could not imagine that the rest of the country is going through a crisis, and millions in developing countries might at this very moment be plunged below the poverty line!...

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Shows what the different states are doing and why the response at the state level is slow even though its better than the respose at the federal level. Most of this action willhelp future borrowers and rlieve some of the effects on current borrowers but only to a small degree otherwise the foreclosure process will probably continue to play out.

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How the mortgage restructuring process might take shape to mitigate the effects on homeowner, on lenders and on the overall economy of rising foreclosures in 2008 as the Alt-A mortgages rest to higher rates. Active intervention by California's governor to obtain mass restructuring through agreements with lenders, four servicers agreed to extend the teaser rate for several years and fast tract the procedures for whole masses of struggling but not hopeless borrowers to get the lower rate.

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Premier Wen announces new Chinese policy at state of the union address to improve the energy efficiency reduce pollution and increase worker incomes and boost education and health safety net expenditures. This is a slow to arrive but significant change in policy and will likely accelerate as the Chinese economy makes gains in this area. Wen wants to see more investment in agriculture and less in heavy industry. He is making primary school education fees in urban areas earlier rural school fees were ended and central government spending would be increased by 45% to make up for lost revenue to schools. He also wants to see more consumption spending so that living standards improve and for the first time since 2000 consumption contributed more to growth tan investment. With the new investment the government will only run a small deficit of 0.6% of GDP.

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The House of Representatives just passed a bill to stem foreclosures and stabilize house prices by having the government through the Federal Housing Administration reinsure upto $300 billion of problem loans. The bills backers estimate 1.5 million foreclosures could be prevented by this bill but the Congressional Budget Office estimates only about 500,000 foreclosures can be averted this way. Under this bill lenders would have to writedown their loans to 85% of current value of the house. Borrowers pay a fee for the insurance and give up any share in future price appreciation to the government. According to the Congressional Budget Office the cost to the government is modest about $1.7 billion over years. The reason for the limited effectiveness of this bill is that it is voluntary, not much government money is extended. Many of the comments in the blog on this article as is the case with other articles on help to homeowners facing foreclosure show the widespread idea that its a bailout of irresponsible decisions by homeowners and mortgage companies who made the loans. This may be the reason why so little has been done in this regard and the limited government money extended even in plans put forth by Congressional Democrats like Barney Frank. Feldstein who is a former Chairman of the Council of Economic Advisors under Reagan has taken a different approach focussing on homeowners who may see the rational decision is to walk away from homes where they have no equity in their homes as prices drop by 20% and for government to prevent a wave of foreclosures in this manner. The danger is if not much is done there could be a downward spiral in home prices as foreclosure reach a new high in 2009. Last year according to Economist's charts foreclosures were averaging more than 100,000 a month now they are averaging more than 200,000 a month, this would take it from 1.5 million foreclosures in 2007 to 2.5 million in 2008. According to the Economist 9 million people owe more than their house is worth, the homeowners who have negative equity, and if they were to foreclose at the rate of 2-3 million a year and accelerating as the economy deteriorates, this could be enough to start a downward spiral. At that point a new President and Congress would have to take drastic action with a substantial amount of the government's money. In that kind of crisis not much thought would be given to the cost because like the financial meltdown that was feared during the Bear Stearns crisis the fears of a global severe economic crisis would make action necessary on many fronts of which housing would be one....

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Lehman Brothers CEO Fuld and the 48 hours before the weekend decision by the Fed to back takeover of Bear Stearns by JP Morgan and to extend lending to investment firms like Lehman to prevent any further spread of the collapse to other investment firms.

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Feldstein points out that Obama economic plans missed the real target, which was on the home front where it came down to addressing the problems of 15 million homeowners under water- with mortgages exceeding the value of their homes- and lack of solutions to deal with the $1.5 trillion in troubled commercial real estate loans. Administration plans really did not help more than a couple of hundred thousand homeowners to reduce their monthly mortgage payments. Getting banks to start lending again by selling impaired loans to nonbank investors, also failed to work, as banks were reluctant to do so and reduce their accounting capital. Health care legislation simply distracted attention from the real problems. See the links to Feldstein's repeated insistence that the new administration (and even during the late stages of the Bush administration) focus on these problems. Health care legislation that passed simply would not control the increase in health care spending, that the public correctly perceived as the real problem if the other health care issues were to be resolved. Instead Obama's health care legislation offered to increase the deficit to unsustainable levels, with no solutions to more pressing home front problems in sight. Feldstein, is one of the most eminent US economists....