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As Timothy Armstrong, former Google executive, takes over at AOL about one third of the employees at AOL are about be laid off.

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New York architect Steven Holl, designs a library for Queens on a prominent waterfront site just across the East river from the United Nations. The architectural design is striking and unique and will make it stand out on the waterfront. It has giant free-form windows carved out of an 80 foot tall rectangular piece of aluminium. This should give it an amazing presence on the waterfront. The design is intended to emphasize civic engagement. In a declining neighborhood standing at the westen edge of Queens west, Steven Hull's design and layout stand for optimism, shaking off the dust of New York's city's aging libraries. There is tranquil reading garden, several balcony like reading rooms, with views of the East River and Manhattan.

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India's options to respond to a terrorist attack in Kashmir in are limited by winter weather and the global political situation. Saudi Arabia and China have moved closer to China in recent years. Saudi Prince Salman visited Islamabad, Pakistan, and New Delhi. Britain is distracted by Brexit, and the U.S. president is engaged in a struggle with Congress over a border wall with Mexico.

With no powers making efforts to de-escalate the situation India's prime minister Modi- who faces elections in coming months- has to craft a response that meets domestic pressures to respond with restraint.

 

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WSJ's Jakab looks at free cash flow yield in value investing in 2025 using data from 1991 to 2024. With the rage over tech stocks Nvidia, Apple, Microsoft and the like and intangible value of these companies, can value investing with free cash flow work as an alternative in 2025.

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Reagan words taken out of historical context by Ontario ad- Lighthizer as Reagan's USTR negotiating with Japan experienced Japan's efforts to unfairly capture world markets. It was only after years of negotiation that Lighthizer was able to get Japan to play by fair rules of world trade. In 2025 Jamieson as US Trade Representative for the US is Lighthizer's deputy in prior negotiations with Asian trade partners who have unfairly gamed the system to their advantage. Canada, Mexico and China are misrepresenting the facts to show they play by the rules when they clearly and blatantly flout world fair trading practices that lead to losses for American workers. The reality is that the Smoot Hawley tariffs by the senators of states that were not industrial states in the US inthe 1930's were adopted by the reckless atitude of Herbert Hoover as president and by senators who had no grasp of world trade. Senator Harry Truman from Missouri as president made correcting these mistakes a top priority in the late 1940's. Today's abuse of the system by Asian countries and Canada, Mexico have nothing to do with the tariffs of the 1930's- America wants all nations to play by the rules which over time will create a stronger world trading system. ...

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These simulations show the  importance of flattening the curve for coronavirus especially the steep jump in the curve when it grows exponentially as people mingle in crowded environments, on trains and subways, and in public gatherings of more than 10 people. This is shown here in four different simulations in the Washington Post. Social distancing and quarantine worked in China, Taiwan, Singapore and South Korea. Though the attempted quarantine simulation here does not cover the situations in China, Taiwan and Singapore where quarantine has worked and was the only way to tackle the coronavirus in time to do least damage. Additional simulations would show the way it was limited in Singapore through contact tracing and mandated staying at home for all who have come in contact with affected persons. And in South Korea a simulation could show how this worked through containment by testing and limiting spread, or China by an effective quarantine or lockdown of a city or province.  The basic idea is to limit contact and separate so that intermingling is restricted to as few places as possible for a limited period during which health authorites can achieve a controlled situation through systemwide organized efforts.  ...

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Applebaum talks to two researchers at the University of Chicago and Princeton, Prof. Sufi and Prof. Mian, on the record of U.S. president Obama and Fed chairman Bernanke in helping homeowners facing foreclosure and underwater borrowers, comparing that record with their record in helping the banks. The issue is relevant as the policy and handling of homeowners had to be part of an overall effective plan for recovery in the U.S. economy, because ultimately without the U.S. consumer any recovery would be weak in the long run- a situation the U.S. faces in early 2014. The response to the issue of irresponsible homeowners borrowing beyond the limit without an equally robust response to irresponsible bank management that allowed wildly excessive leveraging of assets, and successful aggressive lobbying by banks in a shortsighted policy of going through with a wave of foreclosures; besides creating questions of fairness and equitable handling of the problem, also had major ramifications for the future of the U.S. and global economic growth. Here Christina Romer and other administration advisors say Bernanke was right in tackling the problem from the perspective of the banks needing to be recapitalized. Thoughtful advisors looking at the entire problem, Martin Feldstein and Sheila Bair strongly pushed for providing the same help to homeowners without getting caught up in the issue of who was responsible home buyers or the banks, and looking at the interests of the U.S. economy and the U.S. people. Proposals by Feldstein and Bair were equally robust in helping banks as they were in helping homeowners, only the banks understood their interests narrowly and had more access to policymakers in the Bush, as well as the Obama administration, Paulson as well as Geithner. This leaves us with the ultimate irony of the Obama administration pushing for the minimum wage, even to the point of electoral posture, when lasting damage had been inflicted on homeowners from the weaker portions of America's middle class by a policy that went against what two respected financial and economic experts from the Reagan period, Sheila and Bair had strongly advocated. See links and groups on Feldstein and Bair. Applebaum has followed most aspects of this problem closely and continues to provide exceptional reporting including the piece on the thinking of new Fed chairman, Janet Yellen. Private enterprise rules that require management at banks just as for other companies to take responsibility for failures, and be replaced with new management, was largely avoided leading to a fundamental failure in how a free market economy such as the U.S. and western European economies are supposed to function. Rules aggressively pushed by Geithner's mentor Treasury Secretary Rubin for a vigorous cleanup at banks in South Korea during a similiar situation in 1997, were not followed in any way here, also setting wrong precedents for the long run. ...

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Economies have fallen back sharply but banks have not had to recognize bad loans as government support and repayment moratoriums have covered a quarter of all outstanding loans for companies and households. As a result there is a strange crisis in which defaults have not happened. Banks have not had to recognize bad loans. The question is what will happen once this government support and other support ends.

The European Central Bank says bad loans in eurozone could go as high as 1.4 trillion euros or $1.7 trillion, if the economies face further setbacks in the second wave of the coronavirus. European government support has been more generous than the U.S. In Italy over 25% of loans to businesses and 15% to households, totaling 300 billion euros were given payment holidays, according to Scope Ratings.

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This article from the John Hopkins University experts in Chinese investment in Africa say the charges that China was setting up debt levels for African countries beyond sustainability levels set by IMF are not founded except in a few instances. Only in Congo, Zambia and Djibouti does China account for over half of public debt, says the report. This comes as criticism is mounting about African countries being burdened with debt from Chinese financing of projects and loans.

In 17 countries identified as vulnerable including Ethiopia and Cameroon, China was the largest creditor but yet more than half of the debt was held by western banks and other lenders. In Mozambique it was Credit Suisse bank. In other words China is not preying intentionally to put countries into financial distress from debt buildup.

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This report in theWSJ says Krysten Sinema received donations from the securities industry of $2.2 million and is opposed to taking out the carried interest provision that is a key source of income for private equity managers. Senator Manchin says it is time to remove carried interest and this would raise $14 billion over a decade. Sinema is in favor of climate change action and favors a tax on carbon emissions.  On corporate minimum tax Sinema has worked with Senator Elizabeth Warren for the tax change that would require a minimum 15% corporate minimum tax to be paid by corporations. On precription drug prices Sinema has worked with Democrats on what the list of drugs should be for Medicare to negotiate drug prices.  As many of these key points have been worked out with Kristen Sinema it now remains to be seen how Democrats get the agreement of Sinema and any other members in Congress to prepare for the passage through Congress of the Climate Change action bill Schumer has negotiated in the Senate. ...

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Wages are now consistently up more than inflationary pressures since mid 2023 to July 2024 by about 0.6 to 1.0% in Labor Department graphs about cost of living. This is good news for the US economy. It shows the policy of president Biden investing in rebuilding infrastructure and Science/Chips, and renewable energy is delivering for the American people alongside cost of living actions by the Fed's Powell and Biden. For the first time since 2021US CPI index for inflation from the Labor Department drops below 3%. It drops to 2.9% for July 2024. The Consumer Price Index increasing by 2.9% over the same month in the prior year 2023. This shows a definite trend for the cost of living to moderate after the supply chain events that increased inflation leading to lagging efforts for wages to catch up- cost of living issues for ordinary Americans. The costs of medical care and automobiles, automobile repair, food, all moderating. Housing costs still to moderate with higher interest rates.  ...

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Astra Zeneca faces over 9000 lawsuits from people who developed diabetes after taking it. Its a drug for bipolar disorder and schizophrenia that has sales of $20 billion over the years, with $4 billion in 2008. Now it is revealed that Astra Zeneca conducted studies on the effectiveness of Seroquel from 2000, and these studies show that Seroquel was less effective than a generic medicine haloperidol, that has been around for 50 years. Seroquel was only more effective than a placebo,the analysis says from hundreds of pages of unsealed documents.

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This report in The Economist shows how Nairobi is coping with years of haphazard and disorganized development. As land prices jumped new investment has led to a unregulated disorganized building boom that has affected rivers and sanitation. The city's water supply and colonial era sewers are barely coping, says the Economist. To try to fix this the city has launched a demolition campaign for 4000 buildings. Meanwhile Nairobi's population has grown by 1.5 million over the 2009 figure of 3.1 million. Projects to build 200,000 low income housing is also underway. Four problems need to be tackled- a skills shortage, insufficent government investment, enforcement and rule of law, and last rent seeking typical of underdeveloped countries with corruption, complicating the tasks ahead. The biggest problem is large population growth for most African cities.

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The Romney plan calls for putting a cap on federal spending at 20% of GDP. It is now over 23% of GDP. The Huntsman plan calls for lowering taxes for corporations and individuals, and eliminating taxes on capital gains and dividends. This would be offset in the Huntsman plan by closing the mortgage deduction for loans over $500,000, and ending the child tax credit and other tax expenditures as recommended by the Bowles-Simpson Commission. Rep Bachmann and Governor Perry call for eliminating the taxes on American companies repatriating revenues from overseas back to the U.S.

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Dr Denton A, Cooley, 93, Texas heart surgeon, who has operated on over 100,000 people, and was a pioneer in heart surgery.

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The American consumer is becoming frugal since the crisis hit in 2008. But it will take along time to reduce the debt piled up over the years. By 2008 end American households had $13.8 trillion in debt, which is close to the $14.3 trillion output of the entire US economy, not adjsted for inflation in 2008. American households started 2008 with debt at 133% of disposable income. At the end of 2008 this had only dropped 3 percentage points to 130% of disposable income. With unemployment higher, companies reducing hours, and local governments having a certain number of days of furlough, and wage growth slow or nonexistent, the debt will take longer to reduce. WIth this debt overhang, and the lack of easy credit even though the credit markets are working again, its going to be harder to see a consumer driven V shaped recovery. In the 2001 recession consumers took on more debt to provide aconsumer driven V shaped recovery. At that time the debt to disposable income ratio went above 100%. See graph. And its gone up steadily since, with super low interest rates encouraging borrowing, and then as the Fed raised rates consumers went heavily into mortgages and housing in a speculative bubble. This time not only is the credit not there to finance such a recovery, but a number of conditions such as permanent loss of a large number of manufacturing jobs, rising unemployment and use of parttime workers, the need to payoff debt, create definite constraints to consumer spending....

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This Journal editorial points to a Philadelphia Fed study showing that students in the middle class with higher student debt are reluctant to start small business. The Fed study shows new firms with five employees declined by 17% on average for 2000-2010 in counties where relative student debt was up by 2.7%. The average student loan customer owes $28,000. Student debt has doubled from $547 billion in 2007 to over $1 trillion in 2015. As small business makes up about half of the private economy and generates 6 of 10 new jobs, the effects on small business show the damage being done rising student loan debt.

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Congressional Budget Office projections show the difficult choices facing the U.S. - tackling the deficit by letting the Bush tax cuts and the payroll tax cuts expire will lead to low growth. The alternative is growth with much higher deficits. GDP growth would be at about 2.3% in this fiscal year if the payroll tax cut is kept till December 2012. In fiscal 2013 if a number of tax cuts are permitted to expire and across the board spending cuts take effect as scheduled GDP growth would decline to 1.1%. Taxes would increase by $465 billion in 2013 over 2012 if tax cuts expire - individuals and companies would pay $2.99 trillion in taxes in fiscal year 2013 in that scenario. Spending cuts would take effect in Jan 2013 for $1.2 trillion over 10 years. The result- " a sharp fiscal contraction" in the words of CBO director Elmendorf. Unemployment would go up to 8.9% in 2012 year end and 9.2% in 2013 yearend from 8.5% today, if no agreement is made to extend tax cuts and block spending cuts. The risk of not taking the debt reduction actions is to let the debt grow to $11 trillion over 10 years, an unsustainable path, compared to about $3.1 trillion over 10 years if tax cuts are permitted to expire and spending cuts take place. This is the tough choice facing America in 2012, and comes when Europe is facing similar tough choices....

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75 years after independence a trustee of the Sabarmati Ashram, Mr. Kartikeya Sarabhai, asks visiting British prime minister Boris Johnson for help in building the Gandhi archives. Most of the repository of documents held by the Sabarmati Ashram Trust are from Mohandas Gandhi's struggle for Swaraj in India, very little is from Britain such as documents in the British parliamentary and Foreign Office archives, and other British archives. This would help the Ashram Museum to give a more complete picture of what happened during the struggle for Swaraj or self-rule. That this request is being made only now is because of the neglect into which both Britain and India have left the state of trade, economic and cultural relations with India. The visit of Mr. Modi to the UK for the Glasgow summit and Mr. Johnson's visit to Gandhi Ashram on the Sabarmati river, comes from a realization that a lot needs to be done to catch up. The sheer enthusiasm of Mr. Johnson shows how significantly Britain, Europe and the US have changed in their understanding of the aspirations and hopes of the Indian people, as one people with aspirations for development and modernization. ...

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Home design for remote work and how architects think about this is shown in this report. The key is to have multiple locations to work and have the small furniture arrangement that can be flexibly used in these multiple locations. Also add infrastructure meaning easy connectivity and other technical features. The idea is to have flexibility to work from many places in the house. It does not have to be an expensive house design, simple modifications throughout a single family home can be done to rearrange space to create these types of locations. Another part of the design is to also add small exercize equipment say a rower or bike or treadmill in different places in such a way that it takes minimal space and looks to the outside like a garden or a garden view. What this does is to create a home space just for the home owner where he can relax, work and sometimes combine work and relaxation for tasks that are suited, and provide a exercise place that is distributed. It can also include a meditation area in one or two locations that creates a soothing environment. Experimentation is ok and customizing it to one's preferences. ...

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As George Osborne of the Tories once pointed out China does not want to be thought of as a sweat shop on the Pearl River. And particularly not in a British attitude. How hard does China work is a question Tom Phillips tried to answer Oct 6, 2015 from Beijing for The Guardian. The migrant workers are the ones who work the hardest. And productivity is low. Among the higher classes there are longer hours with the work pressures, family obligations and long work hours leading to insomnia, fatigue, obesity, and ill health conditions. A comparison shows Britons working 1677 hours on average according to the OECD. The average Chinese worker is shown to work 2000 hours, by a researcher at Beijing Normal University. A labor economist in Beijing says as the economy improves and working conditions get better workers are working fewer hours every year. He says China lags behind in productivity. The longer working hours he says are not good for worker's health and for productivity. This was said in 2015 when China was still chasing GDP growth without the level of technology the US and Europe had. Now the focus has shifted to better quality growth in advanced technologies and old factories closed. ...

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This opinion in The Guardian points out the difficulty that Lula da Silva faces in governing after a narrow margin of victory of about 1.8 percentage points in the presidential election in Brazil. It is a very different country than the one in which he was first elected in 2003. The right wing parties gained 249 seats compared to 141 seats for the Lula PT party in the lower house of parliament. This means Lula will have a harder time governing, needing centrist party support, and tackling the large fiscal deficit of 8% of GDP.

In the elections for the governors of states Bolsonaro won in 14 of 27 states including the large state of Sao Paulo. Lula owed his victory to large margins in the 10 relatively poor northeastern states where incomes are below $400 a month including Bahia. Where incomes are over $400 as in Sao Paulo the vote was in Bolsonaro's favor.

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Patti Pope, CEO of Consumers Energy, a Michigan power company serving 7 million consumers, is moving to greener sources for energy. Consumers Energy retired 7 coal fired power plants and is shifting to solar farms, wind farms for energy, smart thermostats and meters, new infrastructure, taking advantage of the lower costs of renewable energy.

It plans to invest $25 billion over the next 10 years, including to add 6 gigawatts of solar power requiring 59 square miles of solar panels in its service area. Included are plans to help customers to produce and manage their own power as more users install solar panels in homes.

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Kadish says interest on the national debt is 383 billion dollars or over 40% of the national individual income tax revenues of $904 billion. This according to Treasury's Bureau of the Public Debt. THe COngressional Budget Offfice estimates the 2009 budget deficit to be about $1.4 trillion or about 10% of GDP. OMB estimates total government revenues at $2 trillion. As of 2009 the national debt waas $12 trillion according to Treasury. and OMB forecasts $9 trillion of projected deficits over the nexxt 10 years. This means the natioanl debt could reach $21 trillion by 2019. OMB projects $13.5 trillion of revenue increases over the next 10 years but this says Kadish is optimistic and minimizes the rise in interest rates from larger debt burden. In the light of this adding more social programs he says could lead to asituation of high interest rates double or triple the 2.9% now, on refinanced or new debt.